Invasive carp population modeling to support an adaptive management framework
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Interim Summary Report↗
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USGS Telemetry Project
Telemetry of acoustically tagged bigheaded carp (i.e., bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp H. molitrix ) and surrogate fish species has become an invaluable tool in management for these species in the upper Illinois Waterway Systems (i.e., upper Illinois River, lower Des Plaines River, and Chicago Area Waterway System). For example, movement probabilities between adjacent navigation pools need to be estimated to parameterize the Spatially Explicit Asian Carp Population Model (SEAcarP). SEAcarP is a population model used in scenario planning by the Monitoring and Response Workgroup (MRWG) to evaluate alternative management actions. These movement probabilities are estimated from the telemetry data obtained from a longitudinal network of strategically placed receivers that detect bigheaded carp that have been implanted with acoustic transmitters. In addition, fish removal by contracted fishers has become the primary method of controlling bigheaded carp in the upper Illinois and lower Des Plaines Rivers. Variable patterns in bigheaded carp distribution, habitat, and movement, influenced by seasonal and environmental conditions, make targeting bigheaded carp for removal and containment challenging and costly. Understanding these movement patterns for bigheaded carp through modeling and real-time telemetry applications informs removal efforts and facilitates monitoring and contingency actions based on fish movements. To develop a better understanding of fish movement dynamics to meet management objectives, an existing network of real-time and data-logging acoustic receivers in the upper Illinois Waterway Systems is collaboratively managed by a multi-agency team (see Participating Agencies section above). A Telemetry Workgroup has been established by the MRWG to ensure that the multi-agency telemetry efforts are coordinated to efficiently and effectively meet the MRWG goals. This workgroup plans and executes the placement of receivers, tagging of bigheaded carp with acoustic tags, and management of the telemetry data. Three primary objectives to meet MRWG goals identified by the Telemetry Workgroup included (1) development of a common standardized telemetry database with visualization and analysis tools, (2) transitioning from Program MARK (http://www.phidot.org/software/mark/) to a custom Bayesian multi-state model for estimating movement probabilities needed for SEAcarP and (3) deploying, maintaining, and serving data from real-time acoustic receivers to inform contingency planning and fish removal. A telemetry database and visualization tools (FishTracks) will facilitate standardization, archiving, sharing, quality assurance, visualization and analysis of the telemetry data needed for management. Modifications and additions to FishTracks will facilitate more problem-free use of the database and associated applications, as well as useful extraction of information to meet management goals. The transition to a custom Bayesian multi-state model to estimate movement probabilities will support more efficient, effective, and robust population modeling with SEAcarP by overcoming short comings of Program MARK for this purpose. These shortcomings include lack of customizability and extensibility, problems of singularities and poor-convergence, software crashes, parameter exclusion from models, an inability to consistently generate estimates of movement probability, and a lack of uncertainty estimates for movement probabilities. A real-time receiver network that is maintained and tested annually will ensure reliability and accuracy of the real-time alerts to bigheaded carp movements that can be used by management to plan contingency actions.
Illinois↗
USGS invasive carp database management and integration support
Invasive carp tracking, monitoring, and contracted removal will continue throughout the Illinois River and upper Mississippi River as part of an adaptive management effort to mitigate, control, and contain invasive carp. To facilitate these actions, a need to compile and analyze invasive carp-related data from all agencies exists. Invasive carp-related data include all data sources that could inform the MRWG objectives or projects. These data, often in disparate formats, must be integrated into a common format that allows all agencies the opportunity to assess invasive carp monitoring, control, and removal efforts. Ensuring the interoperability of these datasets allows for their use in various analyses and modeling efforts. Implementing an interoperable data management framework provides mechanisms for endusers to find and use integrated data. Integrating data for use in modeling and analysis furthers the partnership’s collective understanding of invasive carp life history, distribution, and movement and can be used to facilitate adaptive management actions (e.g., directing monitoring, sampling, and removal efforts, assessing invasive carp abundance to support modeling efforts, informing deployment of control actions, etc.). An effective data management strategy will streamline the data update process, providing all agencies with timely data and analyses in support of informed decision-making processes.
Interim Summary Report↗
USGS invasive carp database management and integration support
Invasive carp tracking, monitoring, and contracted removal will continue throughout the Illinois River and upper Mississippi River as part of an adaptive management effort to mitigate, control, and contain invasive carp. To facilitate these actions, a need to compile and analyze invasive carp-related data from all agencies exists. Invasive carp-related data include all data sources that could inform the MRWG objectives or projects. This data, often in disparate formats, must be integrated into a common format that allows all agencies the opportunity to assess invasive carp monitoring, control, and removal efforts. Ensuring the interoperability of these datasets allows for their use in various analyses and modeling efforts. Implementing an interoperable data management framework provides mechanisms for endusers to find and use integrated data. Integrating data for use in modeling and analysis furthers the partnership’s collective understanding of invasive carp life history, distribution, and movement and can be used to facilitate adaptive management actions (e.g., directing monitoring, sampling, and removal efforts; assessing invasive carp abundance to support modeling efforts; informing deployment of control actions; etc.). An effective data management strategy will streamline the data update process, providing all agencies with timely data and analyses in support of informed decision-making processes.
Interim Summary Report↗
USGS invasive carp database management and integration support
Invasive carp tracking, monitoring, and contracted removal will continue throughout the Illinois River and upper Mississippi River as part of an adaptive management effort to mitigate, control, and contain invasive carp. Other fish will also be tracked to maintain a holistic view of the transmitter distribution in the Upper IWW. To facilitate these actions, a need to compile and analyze invasive carp-related data from all agencies exists. Invasive carp-related data include all data sources that could inform the MRWG objectives or projects. These data, often in disparate formats, must be integrated into a common format that allows all agencies the opportunity to assess invasive carp monitoring, control, and removal efforts. Ensuring the interoperability of these datasets allows for their use in various analyses and modeling efforts. Implementing an interoperable data management framework provides mechanisms for end-users to find and use integrated data. Integrating data for use in modeling and analysis furthers the partnership’s collective understanding of invasive carp life history, distribution, and movement and can be used to facilitate adaptive management actions (e.g., directing monitoring, sampling, and removal efforts, assessing invasive carp abundance to support modeling efforts, informing deployment of control actions, etc.). An effective data management strategy will streamline the data update process, providing all agencies with timely data and analyses in support of informed decisionmaking processes.
Interim Summary Report↗
Interim results from a study of the behavior of juvenile Chinook salmon at Cougar Reservoir and Dam, Oregon, March--August 2011
The movements and dam passage of yearling juvenile Chinook salmon implanted with acoustic transmitters and passive integrated transponder tags were studied at Cougar Reservoir and Dam, near Springfield, Oregon. A total of 411 hatchery fish and 26 wild fish were tagged and released between March 7 and May 21, 2011. A series of 16 autonomous hydrophones placed throughout the reservoir were used to determine general fish movements over the life of the acoustic transmitter, which was expected to be 91 days. Movements within the reservoir were directional, and it was common for fish to migrate repeatedly from the head of the reservoir downstream to the dam outlet and back. The dam passage rate was 11.2 percent (95-percent confidence interval 7.8–14.6 percent) for hatchery fish and 15.4 percent (95-percent confidence interval -1.0–31.8 percent) for wild fish within 91 days from release. Most fish passage occurred at night. The median time from release to dam passage was 34.5 days for hatchery fish and 34.2 days for wild fish. A system of hydrophones near the dam outlet, a temperature control tower, was used to estimate positions of fish in three dimensions to enable detailed analyses of fish behavior near the tower. Analyses of these data indicate that hourly averaged depths of fish within a distance of 74 m from the upstream face of the tower ranged from 0.6 to 9.6 meters, with a median depth of 3.6 meters for hatchery fish and 3.4 meters for wild fish. Dam discharge rates and the diurnal period affected the rates of dam passage. Rates of dam passage were similar when the dam discharge rate was less than 1,200 cubic feet per second, but increased sharply at higher discharges. The rate of dam passage at night was 4.4–7.8 times greater than during the day, depending on the distance of fish from the dam. This report is an interim summary of data collected as of August 3, 2011, for planning purposes.
Oregon↗
Alaska Interim Land Cover Mapping Program; final report
In 1985, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research project to develop an interim land cover data base for Alaska as an alternative to the nationwide Land Use and Land Cover Mapping Program. The Alaska Interim Land Cover Mapping Program was subsequently created to develop methods for producing a series of land cover maps that utilized the existing Landsat digital land cover classifications produced by and for the major land management agencies for mapping the vegetation of Alaska. The program was successful in producing digital land cover classifications and statistical summaries using a common statewide classification and in reformatting these data to produce l:250,000-scale quadrangle-based maps directly from the Scitex laser plotter. A Federal and State agency review of these products found considerable user support for the maps. Presently the Geological Survey is committed to digital processing of six to eight quadrangles each year.
Open-File Report↗
Interim Summary: Nesting Counts of Ospreys and Brown Pelicans in Northwestern Mexico, 2006
The distribution and abundance of nesting populations of California brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis californicus) and ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) were documented in 2006 in northwestern Mexico. For ospreys only, the 2006 data were compared to population estimates from two previous surveys (one conducted in 1977 and another conducted in the period 1992-1993). Overall, the total osprey nesting population increased from 1977 to 1992-1993 and then only changed slightly by 2006, but included regions with localized declines, increases, and stable populations. Preliminary population estimates for California brown pelicans suggest a large and apparently healthy breeding population.
Open-File Report↗
Hydrologic conditions, habitat characteristics, and occurrence of fishes in the Apalachicola River floodplain, Florida; second annual report of progress, October 1993-September 1994
This report describes progress and interim results of the second year of a 4-year study. The purpose of the 4-year study is to describe aquatic habitat types in the Apalachicola River floodplain and quantify the amount of habitat inundated by the river at various stages. Final results will be used to determine possible effects of altered flows on floodplain habitats and their associated fish communities. The study is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Northwest Florida Water Management District as part of a comprehensive study of water needs throughout two large river basins in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. By the end of the second year, approxi- mately 80 to 90 percent of field data collection was completed. Water levels at 56 floodplain and main channel locations at study sites were read numerous times during low water and once or twice during high water. Rating curves estimating the relationship between stage at a floodplain site and flow of the Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee are presented for 3 sites in the upper river. Elevation, substrate type, and amount of vegetative structure were described at 27 cross sections representing eight different floodplain tributary types at upper, middle, and lower river study sites. A summary of substrate and structure information from all cross sections is presented. Substrate and structure characteristics of floodplain habitats inundated when river flow was at record low flow, mean annual low flow, and mean flow are described for 3 cross sections in the upper river. Digital coverage of high-altitude infra-red aerial photography was processed for use in a Geographic Information System which will be used to map aquatic habitats in the third year of the study. A summary of the literature on fish utilization of floodplain habitats is described. Eighty-one percent of the species collected in the main channel of the Apalachicola River are known to occur in floodplain habitats of eastern rivers.
Open-File Report↗
A probabilistic assessment of tephra-fall hazards at Hanford, Washington, from a future eruption of Mount St. Helens
Hanford, Washington (USA) is the construction site of a multi-billion-dollar high-level nuclear waste treatment facility. This site lies 200 kilometers (km) east of Mount St. Helens (MSH), the most active volcano in the contiguous United States. Tephra from a future MSH eruption could pose a hazard to the air intake and filtration systems at this plant. In this report, we present a probabilistic estimate of the amount of tephra that could fall, and the concentrations of airborne ash that could occur at the Hanford Site during a future eruption. Mount St. Helens has produced four large explosive eruptions in approximately the past 500 years, suggesting that its annual probability of eruption ( P 1 ) is roughly 4/500=0.008. Assuming that a large eruption occurs, we calculate the probability ( P 3|1 ) of a given fall deposit thickness or airborne concentration at Hanford by running about 10,000 simulations of ash-producing eruptions using the atmospheric transport model Ash3d. In each simulation, we calculate the pattern of tephra dispersal, deposit thickness at Hanford, and airborne ash concentration at ground level. As input for each simulation, we choose meteorological conditions from a randomly chosen time in the historical record between 1980 and 2010, using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) Interim model. The volume (dense-rock equivalent) of each simulated eruption is randomly chosen from a uniform probability distribution on a log scale from the range of magma volumes (0.008–2.3 cubic kilometers [km 3 ]) estimated for late Holocene eruptions at MSH. Plume heights and durations of each eruption are chosen using empirical correlations between volume, height, and eruption rate, which account for the fact that larger eruptions have higher plumes and last longer. We construct summary tables of final deposit thickness ( T ), maximum ground-level airborne concentration ( C max ), and average ground-level airborne concentration ( C avg ) during tephra-fall for each run. Each table is sorted and ranked by decreasing value of T , C max , or C avg . Conditional probabilities ( P 3|1 ) are derived by dividing rank by n+1, where n is the total number of successful runs. For example, a deposit thickness of 5.10 centimeters (cm) from run 446 is ranked 123 of 9,785 successful runs, yielding P 3|1 =123/9,786=0.01257. Its annual probability is P = P 1 · P 3|1 =0.008×0.01257=0.000101. By interpolation, the deposit thickness ( T 10k ) having an annual probability of 1 in 10,000 ( P = 0.0001) is 5.11 cm. Analogous concentration values are C max,10k =3,819 and C avg,10k =1,513 milligrams per cubic meter (mg/m 3 ), respectively. Independent calculations using the known mass accumulation rate of the deposit (=0.001–0.006 kilograms per square meter per second [kg/m 2 /s]), aggregate fall velocities ( u =0.3–0.8 meters per second [m/s]), and the simple formula , yield similar results, although highly variable fall velocities add significant uncertainty. This formula implies that deposit accumulation rates of millimeters (mm) to greater than 1 cm per hour, which are not uncommon during heavy ash fall, are associated with airborne concentrations of 10 2 –10 3 milligrams per cubic meter (mg/m 3 ). These concentrations are much higher than published measurements (10 -3 –10 1 mg/m 3 ), which record only suspended particles sampled in sheltered areas. During heavy ashfall, most fine ash falls as aggregates. Whether such aggregates will be ingested into air ducts will depend on the aggregate size and fall rate, the fragility of the aggregates, the air duct geometry, intake velocity, and other factors.
Washington↗
Assessment of interim flow water-quality data of the San Joaquin River restoration program and implications for fishes, California, 2009-11
After more than 50 years of extensive water diversion for urban and agriculture use, a major settlement was reached among the U.S. Departments of the Interior and Commerce, the Natural Resources Defense Council, and the Friant Water Users Authority in an effort to restore the San Joaquin River. The settlement received Federal court approval in October 2006 and established the San Joaquin River Restoration Program, a multi-agency collaboration between State and Federal agencies to restore and maintain fish populations, including Chinook salmon, in the main stem of the river between Friant Dam and the confluence with the Merced River. This is to be done while avoiding or minimizing adverse water supply effects to all of the Friant Division contractors that could result from restoration flows required by the settlement. The settlement stipulates that water- and sediment-quality data be collected to help assess the restoration goals. This report summarizes and evaluates water-quality data collected in the main stem of the San Joaquin River between Friant Dam and the Merced River by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program during 2009-11. This summary and assessment consider sampling frequency for adequate characterization of variability, sampling locations for sufficient characterization of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program restoration reach, sampling methods for appropriate media (water and sediment), and constituent reporting limits. After reviewing the water- and sediment-quality results for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program, several suggestions were made to the Fisheries Management Work Group, a division of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program that focuses solely on the reintroduction strategies and health of salmon and other native fishes in the river. Water-quality results for lead and total organic carbon exceeded the Surface Water Ambient Monitoring Program Basin Plan Objectives for the San Joaquin Basin, and results for copper exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticide Programs' aquatic-life chronic and acute benchmarks for invertebrates. One sediment sample contained detections of pyrethroid pesticides bifenthrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and total permethrin at concentrations above published chronic toxicity thresholds.
California↗
Report of the River Master of the Delaware River for the period December 1, 2014–November 30, 2015
Executive Summary A Decree of the Supreme Court of the United States, entered June 7, 1954 ( New Jersey v. New York , 347 U.S. 995), established the position of Delaware River Master within the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, the Decree authorizes the diversion of water from the Delaware River Basin and requires compensating releases from specific reservoirs owned by New York City be made under the supervision and direction of the River Master. The Decree stipulates that the River Master provide reports to the Court, not less frequently than annually. This report is the 62nd annual report of the River Master of the Delaware River. This report covers the 2015 River Master report year, which is the period from December 1, 2014, to November 30, 2015. During the report year, precipitation in the upper Delaware River Basin was 42.22 inches or 95 percent of the long-term average. The combined storage remained above 80 percent of the combined capacity until August 2015. The lowest combined storage of the report year was 57 percent of the total combined capacity on December 1, 2014. Delaware River Master operations during the year were conducted as stipulated by the Decree and the Flexible Flow Management Program. Diversions from the Delaware River Basin by New York City and New Jersey fully complied with the Decree. The reservoir releases were made as directed by the River Master at rates designed to meet the flow objective for the Delaware River at Montague, New Jersey, on 72 days during the report year. Interim Excess Release Quantity and conservation releases, designed to relieve thermal stress and protect the fishery and aquatic habitat in the tailwaters of the reservoirs, were also made during the report year. Water quality in the Delaware River estuary between the streamgages at Trenton, New Jersey, and Reedy Island Jetty, Delaware, was monitored at several locations. Data on water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and pH were collected continuously by electronic instruments at four sites.
Delaware, New Jersey New York, Pennsylvania↗