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USGS2021

Synthesis of data and studies relating to Delta Smelt biology in the San Francisco Estuary, emphasizing water year 2017

In the San Francisco Estuary (SFE), the effects of freshwater flow on the aquatic ecosystem have been studied extensively over the years and remains a contentious management issue. It is especially contentious with regards to the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a species endemic to the SFE that has been listed as threatened under the Federal Endangered Species Act and endangered by the State of California. Early studies of Delta Smelt distribution within the SFE suggested that Delta Smelt habitat is determined largely by freshwater flow; however, the exact mechanisms and processes producing such benefits remained unclear. In the summer of 2017, the Flow Alteration Management, Analysis, and Synthesis Team (FLOAT-MAST) was established to analyze, synthesize, and summarize the data collected from the various flow-related monitoring and special studies occurring in 2017(see Table Intro 4). This report will focus on the 2017 summer-fall status of Delta Smelt and its habitat following a record wet year. There has been a long-term decline in the abundance of Delta Smelt associated with a decline in other pelagic fishes. Investigators concluded that the decline has likely been caused by the interactive effects of several causes, including changes in both physical and biotic habitats, many of which are tied to amount and timing of freshwater flow. For this report, we formulated a number of basic predictions about the likely effects of high flows in 2017 on Delta Smelt and their habitat (Table 3). We use a qualitative weight of evidence approach to evaluate whether these predictions were supported by available data. Data sources included a variety of long-term monitoring surveys conducted by Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) agencies, as well as model outputs. Delta Smelt population, health, and life history metrics rarely responded as predicted. Water temperature appears to have a stronger effect on Delta Smelt growth rate and some metrics of life history diversity than outflow or X2 position. Other life history diversity attributes varied but did not appear to be driven by outflow or temperature. Health status was difficult to interpret. Low prevalence of lesions and improved nutritional condition during the drought was contradicted by declining overall population levels. Because of the sparse catches of Delta Smelt in the post-POD years, we consider the data insufficient to reach firm conclusions about the predictions concerning range and distribution of Delta Smelt, especially in the fall. The prediction of high survival was not supported. The 2017 Delta Smelt year class began with poor recruitment in spring of 2017 and below average survival for spring to summer and summer to fall. Thus, low production and low survival led to low abundance of all life stages. During the fall to winter period survival improved, yet the resulting adults were low in number. Foraging success of the fish captured, as measured by stomach fullness, was high for juveniles and adults in 2017 relative to recent years associated with the higher densities of common zooplankton prey that occurred in 2017.

California↗
USGS2017

Food web conceptual model

This chapter describes a general model of food webs within tidal wetlands and represents how physical features of the wetland affect the structure and function of the food web. This conceptual model focuses on how the food web provides support for (or may reduce support for) threatened fish species. This model is part of a suite of conceptual models designed to guide monitoring of restoration sites throughout the San Francisco Estuary (SFE), but particularly within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Marsh. The conceptual models have been developed based on the Delta Regional Ecosystem Restoration Implementation Plan (DRERIP) models, and are designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of monitoring metrics for tidal wetland restoration projects. Many tidal restoration sites in the Delta are being constructed to comply with environmental regulatory requirements associated with the operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. These include the Biological Opinions for Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and salmonids (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2008; National Marine Fisheries Service 2009), and the Incidental Take Permit for Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthyes) (California Department of Fish and Wildlife 2009). These regulatory requirements are based on the hypothesis that the decline of listed fish species is due in part to a decline in productivity of the food web (phytoplankton and zooplankton in particular) or alterations in the food web such that production is consumed by other species in the Estuary (Sommer et al. 2007; Baxter et al. 2010; Brown et al. 2016a). Intertidal wetlands and shallow subtidal habitat can be highly productive, so restoring areas of tidal wetlands may result in a net increase in productivity that will provide food web support for these fish species. However, other factors such as invasive bivalves that reduce phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and invasive predatory fishes that may compete with or prey upon listed fishes can limit the utility of tidal wetlands for food web support (Lucas and Thompson 2012; Herbold et al. 2014). This model utilizes information from the previous DRERIP models for Delta food webs (Durand 2008) and tidal wetlands (Kneib et al. 2008), an updated DRERIP model (Durand 2015), and the State of BayDelta Science 2016 review of recent Delta food web literature (Brown et al. 2016a).

Interagency Ecological Program Technical Report↗
USGS2017

Conceptual model for invasive bivalve control on wetland productivity

Tidal wetlands were the historically dominant features of many coastal regions around the world, including the San Francisco Estuary (Callaway et al. 2011; Whipple et al. 2012). These mosaics of varied interconnected habitats (Mitsch and Gosselink 1993) provide a host of ecosystem services, including biodiversity maintenance, fish and wildlife habitat, water quality improvement, flood abatement, and carbon sequestration (Rabenhorst 1995; Costanza et al. 1997; Bottom et al. 2005; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Barbier et al. 2010). They also support human activities and values such as recreation and aesthetic appreciation (Barbier et al. 2010; Milligan and Kraus-Polk 2016). Despite their critical functions, many wetland landscapes have been destroyed or irreparably altered, either incidentally or intentionally, by human activities (Holland et al. 2004; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Callaway et al. 2011; Cloern and Jassby 2012; Whipple et al. 2012; Schile et al. 2014). San Francisco Estuary (SFE) (see Figure 1) tidal wetlands were largely converted to other land uses in the late 1800s and early 1900s, with the extent of loss and new use varying by region. Wetland losses in the North, Central, and South San Francisco bays and Suisun Bay ranged from 70 percent to 93 percent to accommodate agricultural uses, salt production, managed waterfowl habitat, and urban development (Callaway et al. 2011). Landscape transformation within the most inland portion of the SFE, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), was even more dramatic. Overall, today’s Delta contains 97 percent less freshwater tidal wetland than its historical state and nearly double the open water area (Whipple et al. 2012). The majority of the modern Delta consists of agricultural tracts protected from tidal waters by human-made dikes or levees, which are commonly armored with riprap. The de-watered, rich peat soils of these created islands have supported abundant agricultural production, but have oxidized, compacted, and blown away in the process, causing significant subsidence (Deverel and Leighton 2010). Occasional levee failures turn islands into lakes; a few large shallow lakes remain after accidental levee breaches were not repaired (Whipple et al. 2012).

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USGS2022

Chapter 1: General conceptual model for climate change in the Upper San Francisco Estuary

This report is a collaboration by many state and federal agencies working in the Upper San Francisco Estuary to analyze the potential impacts of climate change to different ecosystems found here. Management stategies for ecological values in the face of climate change require reliable and focused information. In this technical report, our focus is on the Upper San Francisco Estuary (SFE), which contains the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay. This area is home to three interconnected ecosystems: open water, floodplain, and tidal marsh. For this geographical area, we have decades of in-depth monitoring information and scientific investigations that have been successfully used to address a number of management needs. In 2019, the Interagency Ecological Program established a diverse work team to improve our ability to anticipate and respond to climate change impacts. The charge to the group was to: • synthesize science relevant to climate change, • determine important knowledge gaps, and • identify ecosystem metrics for climate change. We focus our analyses on the likely impacts of climate change on interconnected aquatic habitats. We illustrate how changes in habitats are likely to affect diverse species. In this report we describe ecological trends attributable to climate change and likely future impacts. We address four principal questions: 1. How have the habitats and biotic communities changed due to climatic trends and events? 2. How are estuarine habitats, flora, and fauna likely to change as climate change trends continue? 3. What are key metrics to document ecosystem change as a result of climate change? 4. How should our monitoring change to improve information value? Our work builds on the similar work of the San Francisco Baylands Goals Project (Goals Project 2015), which addressed climate change impacts to wetlands downstream of the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. We aim to contribute to an integrated baseline understanding of climate change impacts for the entire San Francisco Estuary.

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USGS2015

An updated conceptual model of Delta Smelt biology: Our evolving understanding of an estuarine fish

The main purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment and conceptual model of factors affecting Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) throughout its primarily annual life cycle and to demonstrate how this conceptual model can be used for scientific and management purposes. The Delta Smelt is a small estuarine fish that only occurs in the San Francisco Estuary. Once abundant, it is now rare and has been protected under the federal and California Endangered Species Acts since 1993. The Delta Smelt listing was related to a step decline in the early 1980s; however, population abundance decreased even further with the onset of the “pelagic organism decline” (POD) around 2002. A substantial, albeit short-lived, increase in abundance of all life stages in 2011 showed that the Delta Smelt population can still rebound when conditions are favorable for spawning, growth, and survival. In this report, we update previous conceptual models for Delta Smelt to reflect new data and information since the release of the last synthesis report about the POD by the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary (IEP) in 2010. Specific objectives include: 1. Provide decision makers with a practical tool for evaluating difficult trade-offs associated with management and policy decisions. 2. Provide scientists with a framework from which they can formulate and evaluate hypotheses using qualitative or quantitative models. 3. Provide the general public with a new way of learning about Delta Smelt and their habitat. Our updated conceptual model describes the habitat conditions and ecosystem drivers affecting each Delta Smelt life stage, across seasons and how the seasonal effects contribute to the annual success of the species. The conceptual model consists of two nested and linked levels of increasing specificity. The general life cycle conceptual model for four Delta Smelt life stages (adults, eggs and larvae, juveniles, and subadults) includes stationary ecosystem components and dynamic environmental drivers, habitat attributes, and Delta Smelt responses. The more detailed life stage transition conceptual models for each of the four Delta Smelt life stages describe relationships between environmental drivers, key habitat attributes, and the responses of Delta Smelt to habitat attributes as they transition from one life stage to the next. Our analyses and conceptual model show that good larval recruitment is essential for setting the stage for a strong year class; however, increased growth and survival through subsequent life stages are also needed to achieve and sustain higher population abundance. We used our conceptual model to generate 16 hypotheses about the factors that may have contributed to the 2011 increase in Delta Smelt relative abundance. We then evaluated these hypotheses by comparing habitat conditions and Delta Smelt responses in the wet year 2011 to those in the prior wet year 2006 and in the drier years 2005 and 2010. Larval recruitment was similarly high in both wet years and lower in the drier antecedent years, but juvenile and adult abundance increased only in 2011. In 2005 and 2006, the population was limited by very poor survival from the larval to the juvenile life stage. We found that in 2011, Delta Smelt may have benefitted from a combination of favorable habitat conditions throughout the year, including: 1. Adults and larvae benefitted from prolonged cool spring water temperatures, high 2011 winter and spring outflows which reduced entrainment risk and possibly improved other habitat conditions, and possibly enhanced food availability in late spring. 2. Juveniles benefitted from cool water temperatures in late spring and early summer as well as from improved food availability and low levels of harmful Microcystis. 3. Subadults also benefitted from improved food availability and from favorable habitat conditions in the large, low salinity zone (salinity 1-6) located more toward Suisun Bay,

California↗