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USGS2017

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all) anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2023

Sonoran desert tortoise: Gopherus morafkai

Sonoran Desert Tortoise Gopherus morafkai has most recently been assessed for The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in 2019. Gopherus morafkai is listed as Vulnerable under criteria A2abce+4abce.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2016

The biogeography of threatened insular iguanas and opportunities for invasive vertebrate management

Iguanas are a particularly threatened group of reptiles, with 61% of species at risk of extinction. Primary threats to iguanas include habitat loss, direct and indirect impacts by invasive vertebrates, overexploitation, and human disturbance. As conspicuous, charismatic vertebrates, iguanas also represent excellent flagships for biodiversity conservation. To assist planning for invasive vertebrate management and thus benefit threatened iguana recovery, we identified all islands with known extant or extirpated populations of Critically Endangered and Endangered insular iguana taxa as recognized by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. For each island, we determined total area, sovereignty, the presence of invasive alien vertebrates, and human population. For the 23 taxa of threatened insular iguanas we identified 230 populations, of which iguanas were extant on 185 islands and extirpated from 45 islands. Twenty-one iguana taxa (91% of all threatened insular iguana taxa) occurred on at least one island with invasive vertebrates present; 16 taxa had 100% of their population(s) on islands with invasive vertebrates present. Rodents, cats, ungulates, and dogs were the most common invasive vertebrates. We discuss biosecurity, eradication, and control of invasive vertebrates to benefit iguana recovery: (1) on islands already free of invasive vertebrates; (2) on islands with high iguana endemicity; and (3) for species and subspecies with small total populations occurring across multiple small islands. Our analyses provide an important first step toward understanding how invasive vertebrate management can be planned effectively to benefit threatened insular iguanas.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗

USGS2006

Evidence for the role of infectious disease in species extinction and endangerment

Infectious disease is listed among the top five causes of global species extinctions. However, the majority of available data supporting this contention is largely anecdotal. We used the IUCN Red List of Threatened and Endangered Species and literature indexed in the ISI Web of Science to assess the role of infectious disease in global species loss. Infectious disease was listed as a contributing factor in <4% of species extinctions known to have occurred since 1500 (833 plants and animals) and as contributing to a species' status as critically endangered in <8% of cases (2852 critically endangered plants and animals). Although infectious diseases appear to play a minor role in global species loss, our findings underscore two important limitations in the available evidence: uncertainty surrounding the threats to species survival and a temporal bias in the data. Several initiatives could help overcome these obstacles, including rigorous scientific tests to determine which infectious diseases present a significant threat at the species level, recognition of the limitations associated with the lack of baseline data for the role of infectious disease in species extinctions, combining data with theory to discern the circumstances under which infectious disease is most likely to serve as an agent of extinction, and improving surveillance programs for the detection of infectious disease. An evidence-based understanding of the role of infectious disease in species extinction and endangerment will help prioritize conservation initiatives and protect global biodiversity.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2021

Gopherus agassizii

A provisional Red List Assessment of the widespread Desert Tortoise, Gopherus agassizii ( sensu lato ), was performed at a Desert Tortoise Council workshop in 2010 and updated by the IUCN Tortoise and Freshwater Turtle Specialist Group (TFTSG) in 2011, at which time the Mojave Desert subpopulation, now considered G. agassizii ( sensu stricto ) following taxonomic analysis and splitting into three separate species ( G. agassizii , G. morafkai , and G. evgoodei ), was assessed as Critically Endangered A2bce+A4bce based on population reduction (decreasing density), habit loss of over 80% over three generations (90 years), including past reductions and predicted future declines, as well as the effects of disease (upper respiratory tract disease / mycoplasmosis). Gopherus agassizii ( sensu stricto ) comprises tortoises in the most well-studied 30% of the larger range; this portion of the original range has seen the most human impacts and is where the largest past population losses had been documented. A recent rigorous range-wide population reassessment of G. agassizii ( sensu stricto ) has demonstrated continued adult population and density declines of about 90% over three generations (two in the past and one ongoing) in four of the five G. agassizii recovery units and inadequate recruitment with decreasing percentages of juveniles in all five recovery units. As such, we reaffirm the prior assessment of the taxonomically restricted Mojave Desert Tortoise, G. agassizii , as Critically Endangered, and add criterion “a” for direct population observations: CR A2abce+A4abce. The previously defined widespread species G. agassizii ( sensu lato ) was last assessed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List in 1996; a separate assessment currently in progress by the TFTSG for the Sonoran Desert Tortoise, G. morafkai (previously considered part of G. agassizii ) has provisionally assessed that species as Vulnerable.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2025

A practical framework for identifying genetic subpopulations and ESUs: Insights for IUCN assessments and broader management

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) sets global conservation standards, including the Red List of Threatened Species and the Green Status of Species. Recent analyses showed that genetic diversity has not been effectively considered by IUCN species assessments, despite being fundamental to species’ fitness and adaptive potential. Incorporation of genetic diversity into IUCN assessments can support its successful long-term conservation. To enhance the preservation of genetic diversity, assessments should include genetically meaningful within-species units. Subpopulations are recognized units by the IUCN for protecting natural connectivity, however infrequently evaluated. Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) are currently not recognized as a formal unit by the IUCN. However, incorporating ESUs into conservation frameworks could significantly enhance our capacity to identify and protect adaptive genetic diversity. To facilitate inclusion of these units in IUCN assessments, we outline a widely applicable framework for their identification that uses non-molecular and molecular data for global accessibility.

EcoEvoRxiv↗

USGS2014

A nuclear DNA perspective on delineating evolutionarily significant lineages in polyploids: the case of the endangered shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum )

The shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum , oft considered a phylogenetic relic, is listed as an “endangered species threatened with extinction” in the US and “Vulnerable” on the IUCN Red List. Effective conservation of A. brevirostrum depends on understanding its diversity and evolutionary processes, yet challenges associated with the polyploid nature of its nuclear genome have heretofore limited population genetic analysis to maternally inherited haploid characters. We developed a suite of polysomic microsatellite DNA markers and characterized a sample of 561 shortnose sturgeon collected from major extant populations along the North American Atlantic coast. The 181 alleles observed at 11 loci were scored as binary loci and the data were subjected to multivariate ordination, Bayesian clustering, hierarchical partitioning of variance, and among-population distance metric tests. The methods uncovered moderately high levels of gene diversity suggesting population structuring across and within three metapopulations (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast) that encompass seven demographically discrete and evolutionarily distinct lineages. The predicted groups are consistent with previously described behavioral patterns, especially dispersal and migration, supporting the interpretation that A. brevirostrum exhibit adaptive differences based on watershed. Combined with results of prior genetic (mitochondrial DNA) and behavioral studies, the current work suggests that dispersal is an important factor in maintaining genetic diversity in A. brevirostrum and that the basic unit for conservation management is arguably the local population.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2023

Discovery of a rare pillar coral (Dendrogyra cylindrus) death assemblage off southeast Florida reveals multi-century persistence during the late Holocene

In recent years, coral populations in the western Atlantic have undergone widespread declines from climate change, anthropogenic stressors, and infectious disease outbreaks. The pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus , has been one of the most affected species, prompting its listing as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act in 2014 and critically endangered under the IUCN Red List in 2022. However, due to its natural rarity, it is particularly difficult to study using conventional long-term monitoring studies or less common paleontological investigations. Here, we document for the first time, the multi-century persistence of D. cylindrus on high-latitude nearshore reefs off southeast Florida during the late Holocene. Using high-precision uranium–thorium (U-Th) dating, we constrain the ages of well-preserved subfossil D. cylindrus colonies recovered from newly described coral death assemblages. We also describe specific morphological characteristics and taphonomic indicators reflecting their unique depositional environment. Our findings demonstrate long-term persistence of D. cylindrus in southeast Florida, despite geographical isolation and historical rarity in the region.

Coral Reefs↗

USGS2022

Cryptic extinction risk in a western Pacific lizard radiation

Cryptic ecologies, the Wallacean Shortfall of undocumented species’ geographical ranges and the Linnaean Shortfall of undescribed diversity, are all major barriers to conservation assessment. When these factors overlap with drivers of extinction risk, such as insular distributions, the number of threatened species in a region or clade may be underestimated, a situation we term ‘cryptic extinction risk’. The genus Lepidodactylus is a diverse radiation of insular and arboreal geckos that occurs across the western Pacific. Previous work on Lepidodactylus showed evidence of evolutionary displacement around continental fringes, suggesting an inherent vulnerability to extinction from factors such as competition and predation. We sought to (1) comprehensively review status and threats, (2) estimate the number of undescribed species, and (3) estimate extinction risk in data deficient and candidate species, in Lepidodactylus . From our updated IUCN Red List assessment, 60% of the 58 recognized species are threatened (n = 15) or Data Deficient (n = 21), which is higher than reported for most other lizard groups. Species from the smaller and isolated Pacific islands are of greatest conservation concern, with most either threatened or Data Deficient, and all particularly vulnerable to invasive species. We estimated 32 undescribed candidate species and linear modelling predicted that an additional 18 species, among these and the data deficient species, are threatened with extinction. Focusing efforts to resolve the taxonomy and conservation status of key taxa, especially on small islands in the Pacific, is a high priority for conserving this remarkably diverse, yet poorly understood, lizard fauna. Our data highlight how cryptic ecologies and cryptic diversity combine and lead to significant underestimation of extinction risk.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2024

Are threatened seabird colonies of the Pacific Ocean genetically vulnerable? The case of the red-tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda, as a model species

Oceanic seabirds have suffered population declines and extirpations due to human disturbance and still face multiple threats. Here, we assessed the potential genetic vulnerability of the red-tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda , a seabird species threatened by human disturbance and listed as ‘least concern’ by the IUCN. Using Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) we evaluated the genetic population structure of the red-tailed tropicbird throughout the Pacific Ocean using samples from 132 individuals from six islands. We sampled individuals from islands without human-related disturbance (non-impacted islands) and with human-related disturbance (impacted islands). Results of genome-wide SNP analyses were consistent with previous results using mitochondrial DNA sequences analyses. Genetic diversity did not differ between impacted and non-impacted islands, and low inbreeding estimates were detected for all colonies. The SNPs analyses confirmed a pattern of isolation by distance and significant inter-regional (Chile, Australasia, and Hawaiʻi) genetic structure, but revealed greater differentiation of tropicbirds in Hawaiʻi compared with Chile and Australasia. Within regions, our results further indicated significant differentiation between Rapa Nui and Salas & Gómez Island (Chile), and between Meyer and Phillip islands (Australasia) that was not detected using mitochondrial DNA analyses. Within Hawaiʻi, we found a lack of significant genetic differentiation between Oʻahu and Kauaʻi, separated by 200 km. Our findings indicated that red-tailed tropicbird colonies are at genetic risk due to limited dispersal among colonies which may reduce the fitness of the species in the long-term. We suggest that red-tailed tropicbird colonies are vulnerable to future population declines because recovery through immigration from other islands may be limited by geographic distance. Conservation actions will help preserve genetic diversity and discrete populations for this native seabird at colonies throughout the Pacific.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2019

Globally important islands where eradicating invasive mammals will benefit highly threatened vertebrates

Invasive alien species are a major threat to native insular species. Eradicating invasive mammals from islands is a feasible and proven approach to prevent biodiversity loss. We developed a conceptual framework to identify globally important islands for invasive mammal eradications to prevent imminent extinctions among highly threatened species using biogeographic and technical factors, plus a novel approach to consider socio-political feasibility. We applied this framework using a comprehensive dataset describing the distribution of 1,184 highly threatened, native, vertebrate species (i.e. those listed as Critically Endangered or Endangered on the IUCN Red List) and 184 non-native mammals on 1,279 islands worldwide. Based on extinction risk, irreplaceability, severity of impact from invasive species, and technical feasibility of eradication, we identified and ranked 292 of the most important islands where eradicating invasive mammals would benefit highly threatened vertebrates. When socio-political feasibility was considered, we identified 169 of these islands where eradication planning or operation could be initiated by 2020 or 2030. Of these, 107 islands were in 34 countries and territories and could have eradication projects initiated by 2020. Concentrating efforts to eradicate invasive mammals on these 107 islands would benefit 151 populations of 80 highly threatened vertebrates and make a major contribution towards achieving global conservation targets adopted by the world’s nations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2020

Incorporating spatial synchrony in the status assessment of a threatened species with multivariate analysis

Spatial synchrony—correlated abundance fluctuations among distinct populations—is associated with increased extinction risk but is not a component of widely-used extinction risk assessments (e.g., IUCN Red List, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessment). Alongside traditional viability metrics (i.e., the number of populations, their spatial extent, the status of each population), consideration of spatial synchrony in these assessments may provide additional insight into extinction risk as well as the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on population dynamics. We demonstrate a method for estimating abundance trends in populations of the endangered freshwater fish, the amber darter (Percina antesella), while simultaneously assessing support for spatial synchrony among its two populations in the Conasauga and Etowah rivers in Georgia, U.S.A. Our analysis was performed using multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models with annual sampling data from 1996-2018 at 16 sites distributed between the two populations. Our results indicate that amber darter populations have declined substantially, with 9% annual losses in both the Conasauga and Etowah rivers, suggesting rangewide imperilment. Furthermore, model selection indicated little support for models with independent dynamics between rivers, which may compound overall extinction risk. This analysis demonstrates the utility of tools such as MARSS models for assessing spatial synchrony and long-term population trajectories of imperiled species, resulting in improved vulnerability assessments that do not assume independence among separate populations.

Georgia↗

USGS2006

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2018

Global conservation status of turtles and tortoises (order Testudines)

We present a review and analysis of the conservation status and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat categories of all 360 currently recognized species of extant and recently extinct turtles and tortoises (Order Testudines). Our analysis is based on the 2018 IUCN Red List status of 251 listed species, augmented by provisional Red List assessments by the IUCN Tortoise and Freshwater Turtle Specialist Group (TFTSG) of 109 currently unlisted species of tortoises and freshwater turtles, as well as re-assessments of several outdated IUCN Red List assessments. Of all recognized species of turtles and tortoises, this combined analysis indicates that 20.0% are Critically Endangered (CR), 35.3% are Critically Endangered or Endangered (CR+EN), and 51.9% are Threatened (CR+EN+Vulnerable). Adjusting for the potential threat levels of Data Deficient (DD) species indicates that 56.3% of all data-sufficient species are Threatened. We calculated percentages of imperiled species and modified Average Threat Levels (ATL; ranging from Least Concern = 1 to Extinct = 8) for various taxonomic and geographic groupings. Proportionally more species in the subfamily Geoemydinae (Asian members of the family Geoemydidae) are imperiled (74.2% CR+EN, 79.0% Threatened, 3.89 ATL) compared to other taxonomic groupings, but the families Podocnemididae, Testudinidae, and Trionychidae and the superfamily Chelonioidea (marine turtles of the families Cheloniidae and Dermochelyidae) also have high percentages of imperiled species and ATLs (42.9–50.0% CR+EN, 73.8–100.0% Threatened, 3.44–4.06 ATL). The subfamily Rhinoclemmydinae (Neotropical turtles of the family Geoemydidae) and the families Kinosternidae and Pelomedusidae have the lowest percentages of imperiled species and ATLs (0%–7.4% CR+EN, 7.4%–13.3% Threatened, 1.65–1.87 ATL). Turtles from Asia have the highest percentages of imperiled species (75.0% CR+EN, 83.0% Threatened, 3.98 ATL), significantly higher than predicted based on the regional species richness, due to much higher levels of exploitation in that geographic region. The family Testudinidae has the highest ATL (4.06) of all Testudines due to the extinction of several species of giant tortoises from Indian and Pacific Ocean islands since 1500 CE. The family Testudinidae also has an ATL higher than all other larger polytypic families (≥ 5 species) of Reptilia or Amphibia. The order Testudines is, on average, more imperiled than all other larger orders (≥ 20 species) of Reptilia, Amphibia, Mammalia, or Aves, but has percentages of CR+EN and Threatened species and an ATL (2.96) similar to those of Primates and Caudata (salamanders).

Chelonian Conservation and Biology↗

USGS2025

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2018

Carnivore hotspots in Peninsular Malaysia and their landscape attributes

Mammalian carnivores play a vital role in ecosystem functioning. However, they are prone to extinction because of low population densities and growth rates, and high levels of persecution or exploitation. In tropical biodiversity hotspots such as Peninsular Malaysia, rapid conversion of natural habitats threatens the persistence of this vulnerable group of animals. Here, we carried out the first comprehensive literature review on 31 carnivore species reported to occur in Peninsular Malaysia and updated their probable distribution. We georeferenced 375 observations of 28 species of carnivore from 89 unique geographic locations using records spanning 1948 to 2014. Using the Getis-Ord Gi*statistic and weighted survey records by IUCN Red List status, we identified hotspots of species that were of conservation concern and built regression models to identify environmental and anthropogenic landscape factors associated with Getis-Ord Gi* z scores. Our analyses identified two carnivore hotspots that were spatially concordant with two of the peninsula’s largest and most contiguous forest complexes, associated with Taman Negara National Park and Royal Belum State Park. A cold spot overlapped with the southwestern region of the Peninsula, reflecting the disappearance of carnivores with higher conservation rankings from increasingly fragmented natural habitats. Getis-Ord Gi* z scores were negatively associated with elevation, and positively associated with the proportion of natural land cover and distance from the capital city. Malaysia contains some of the world’s most diverse carnivore assemblages, but recent rates of forest loss are some of the highest in the world. Reducing poaching and maintaining large, contiguous tracts of lowland forests will be crucial, not only for the persistence of threatened carnivores, but for many mammalian species in general.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2023

Genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is an important and widely used tool for conservation assessment. The IUCN uses information about a species’ range, population size, habitat quality and fragmentation levels, and trends in abundance to assess extinction risk. Genetic diversity is not considered, although it affects extinction risk. Declining populations are more strongly affected by genetic drift and higher rates of inbreeding, which can reduce the efficiency of selection, lead to fitness declines, and hinder species’ capacities to adapt to environmental change. Given the importance of conserving genetic diversity, attempts have been made to find relationships between red-list status and genetic diversity. Yet, there is still no consensus on whether genetic diversity is captured by the current IUCN Red List categories in a way that is informative for conservation. To assess the predictive power of correlations between genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status in vertebrates, we synthesized previous work and reanalyzed data sets based on 3 types of genetic data: mitochondrial DNA, microsatellites, and whole genomes. Consistent with previous work, species with higher extinction risk status tended to have lower genetic diversity for all marker types, but these relationships were weak and varied across taxa. Regardless of marker type, genetic diversity did not accurately identify threatened species for any taxonomic group. Our results indicate that red-list status is not a useful metric for informing species-specific decisions about the protection of genetic diversity and that genetic data cannot be used to identify threat status in the absence of demographic data. Thus, there is a need to develop and assess metrics specifically designed to assess genetic diversity and inform conservation policy, including policies recently adopted by the UN's Convention on Biological Diversity Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

Conservation Biology↗