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Results for “INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics”

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18 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Structured decision making to prioritize regional bird monitoring needs

Conservation planning for large ecosystems has multiple benefits but is often challenging to implement because of the multiple jurisdictions, species, and habitats involved. In addition, decision making at large spatial scales can be hampered because many approaches do not explicitly incorporate potentially competing values and concerns of stakeholders. After the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, establishing baselines was challenging because of (1) variation in study designs, (2) inconsistent use of explicit objectives and hypotheses, (3) inconsistent use of standardized monitoring protocols, and (4) variation in spatial and temporal scope associated with avian monitoring projects before the spill. Herein, we show how the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network members used structured decision making to identify bird monitoring priorities. We used multiple tools and techniques to clearly define the problem and stakeholder objectives and to identify bird monitoring priorities at the scale of the entire northern Gulf of Mexico region. Although our example is specific to the northern Gulf of Mexico, this approach provides an example of how stakeholder values can be incorporated into the coordination process of broad-scale monitoring programs to address management, restoration, and scientific questions in other ecosystems and for other taxa.

INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics↗
USGS2021

Adaptive monitoring in action: Reconsidering design-based estimators reveals underestimation of whitebark pine disease prevalence in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Identifying and understanding status and trends in ecological indicators motivates continual monitoring over decades. Many programs rely on probability surveys and their companion design-based estimators for status assessments (e.g. Horvitz–Thompson). Design-based estimators do not easily extend to trend estimation nor situations with observation errors. Field-based monitoring efforts inevitably have turnover of field crew members which may affect consistency and accuracy of data collection over time. Additionally, design-based estimators ignore the complexities of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in an ecological indicator and how this variability may be linked to environmental or biological dynamics. We propose monitoring programs should re-evaluate their prescribed statistical methods, consider model-based approaches and adapt their sampling designs as needed to improve inferences. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, home to two of the most iconic U.S. National Parks, has experienced significant declines in whitebark pine Pinus albicaulis communities due to forest pathogens, insect outbreaks, wildland fires and drought. Whitebark pine is a keystone species found in mountainous environments throughout the Western U.S. and Canada. We assessed the design-based ratio estimator originally recommended for estimating prevalence of white pine blister rust Cronartium ribicola . We compared the design-based estimator to a model-based approach that accounts for the sampling design, imperfect detection and allows for infection probabilities to vary over space and time. Ignoring observation errors led to lower estimated prevalence of white pine blister rust in the general population. Using model-based approaches, we found that the probability of infection has increased since 2004. However, overall prevalence likely has not changed because of the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae -induced shift towards smaller diameter trees that have a lower probability of infection compared to their larger cohorts. Synthesis and Applications . Using a design-based approach to detect change in ecological indicators falls short because of the inability to account for observation errors or to explore environmental or biological factors explaining temporal dynamics. Inherently understanding the mechanisms leading to changes in an ecological indicator over time informs potential management actions. Our assessment underscores the need for continued evaluation and updating of a monitoring program's sampling design and analytical procedures to maintain relevancy.

Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications . Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Too much and not enough data: Challenges and solutions for generating information in freshwater research and monitoring

Evaluating progress toward achieving freshwater conservation and sustainability goals requires transforming diverse types of data into useful information for scientists, managers, and other interest groups. Despite substantial increases in the volume of freshwater data collected worldwide, many regions and ecosystems still lack sufficient data collection and/or data access. We illustrate how these data challenges result from a diverse set of underlying mechanisms and propose solutions that can be applied by individuals or organizations. We discuss creative approaches to address data scarcity, including the use of community science, remote-sensing, environmental sensors, and legacy datasets. We highlight the importance of coordinated data collection efforts among groups and training programs to improve data access. At the institutional level, we emphasize the power of prioritizing data curation, incentivizing data publication, and promoting research that enhances data coverage and representativeness. Some of these strategies involve technological and analytical approaches, but many necessitate shifting the priorities and incentives of organizations such as academic and government research institutions, monitoring groups, journals, and funding agencies. Our overarching goal is to stimulate discussion to narrow the data disparities hindering the understanding of freshwater processes and their change across spatial scales.

Nahuel Huapi Lake, Lake Tahoe↗
USGS2020

Evaluation of soil zone processes and a novel radiocarbon correction approach for groundwater with mixed sources

Estimates of groundwater age based on 14C is often limited by the uncertainty in geochemical processes that alter the 14C concentration measured in water and the composition (δ13C and 14C) of carbon sources needed to appropriately parametrize 14C adjustment models. Estimated ages for samples that contain a mixture of young and old groundwater will be particularly sensitive to model parametrization as relatively small additions of modern 14C from recent recharge can mask the presence and amount of old groundwater. A novel multi-model approach based on inverse geochemical modeling and lumped parameter modeling of age tracers (3H, 3Hetrit, and SF6) was used to better constrain 14C dilution caused by dissolution of carbonates in the unsaturated zone or shallow parts of the Glacial aquifer, which extends over 2000 miles across the northern contiguous United States. Calibration of 14C inverse geochemical models to LPM computed 14C concentrations in modern water indicated that 14C of soil zone and shallow aquifer carbonates were not 14C-dead (0 pmC), as is typically assumed for 14C correction models. 14C of such carbonates was on average about 53 pmC (ranged 0-110 pmC, n = 72). This information was used to correct 14C concentrations for water recharged entirely before 1950 and water that is a mixture of pre- and post-1950 water. The multi-model approach developed here was compared to an analytical 14C-adjustment model (Revised Fontes and Garnier) that assumed solid carbonates were 14C-dead. 14C corrections using the analytical adjustment model tended to over-correct final 14C concentrations by 21 pmC and underestimates mean ages by 40% for groundwater mixtures. In fact, 14C corrections based on analytical model yielded negative ages (14C > 120 pmC) in nearly 36% of mixed samples. This work presents a new approach to constraining 14C corrections and age estimates of mixtures of young and old groundwater. The new method is applied to three well networks distributed across the spatially expansive Glacial aquifer.

Glacier aquifer system↗
USGS2021

A review of spatially resolved techniques and applications of organic petrography in shale petroleum systems

This review examines new techniques and applications of organic petrography in source-rock reservoir petroleum systems that have occurred along with development of the global ‘shale revolution’ in energy resources. The review is limited to techniques and instrumentation that provide spatially resolved information, typically at or below microscales, for dispersed organic matter occurring in situ in samples of shale and mudrock. A brief summary of ion beam sample preparation is followed by discussion of the most common analytical techniques and applications. Advantages and limitations of each technique, including requisite sample preparation, types of information generated [e.g., molecular or elemental (isotopic) abundance], sensitivity, and resolution are discussed. In a few cases, techniques not yet applied to organic petrology of shale or mudrock are described (e.g., X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy imaging), in anticipation of near-term future application. The most common in situ techniques applied for characterization of organic matter in shale and mudrock include optical (including fluorescence) and electron microscopies, Raman, fluorescence, and infrared spectroscopies, and surficial measurements via force microscopy. Techniques that show growing application to organic petrography of shale include tip-enhanced photothermal infrared spectroscopy, mass spectrometry imaging, and synchrotron-based spectroscopies, among others. It is anticipated that the future of dispersed organic matter petrography will hold continued development of integrated instrument techniques (e.g., simultaneous or sequential correlative microscopies and/or spectroscopies of the same location), increased instrumental resolution, increased use of multiscale and multimodal organic petrography investigations, and three-dimensional imaging and chemical speciation mapping applications via multiple analytical approaches.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2021

The finicky nature of earthquake shaking-triggered submarine sediment slope failures and sediment gravity flows

Since 2011, seafloor temperatures, pressures, and seismic ground motions have been measured by the seafloor cabled Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) on the Nankai margin. These measurements, high-resolution bathymetry, and abundant contextual information make the DONET region seem ideally suited to provide constraints on seismic shaking-triggered sediment slope failures and gravity flows, particularly since numerous published studies have linked paleo- to modern earthquakes to failures and flows within the DONET. The occurrences of the local 2016 M6.0 Mie-ken and regional M7.0 Kumamoto earthquakes within and at regional distances, respectively, from the DONET data set provided an opportunity to explore this potential. We used DONET seismic recordings of the posited triggering shaking and to search for submarine slide signals and continuous temperature and pressure data to detect pulses of warm and densified water indicative of passing flows. We developed and applied a variety of analytical methods to eliminate signals generated by water column processes, while leaving slope failures and sediment gravity flow anomalies as residuals. Our explorations yielded no evidence that earthquake shaking initiated either phenomenon, which we suggest reflects the finicky nature both of the detection of and the physical processes that contribute to slope failures and flows (i.e., both require satisfying precise suites of conditions). Nonetheless, this negative result, our analyses, and the estimates of physical properties we derived for them, provide useful lessons and inputs for future studies.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2021

Compositional evolution of organic matter in Boquillas Shale across a thermal gradient at the single particle level

The molecular composition of petroliferous organic matter and its compositional evolution throughout thermal maturation provides insight for understanding petroleum generation. This information is critical for understanding hydrocarbon resources in unconventional reservoirs, as source rock organic matter is highly dispersed, in contact with the surrounding mineral matrix, and may occur as multiple organic matter maceral types. Here, Raman spectroscopy and optical microscopy approaches were applied to a marginally mature (vitrinite reflectance ~0.5%) sample of the Late Cretaceous Boquillas Shale before and after hydrous pyrolysis (HP) at 300 °C and 330 °C for 72 h. This analytical approach allowed for correlative examination of micro-scale changes in organic matter compositional properties (e.g., aromaticity) for a variety of organic matter macerals across a thermal gradient (from marginally mature into the late oil/wet gas window) at the single particle level. Results indicate that while the examined amorphous organic matter, solid bitumen, and vitrinite particles exhibit different aromatic signatures in the unheated shale, they effectively progress along a similar trend through composition space with thermal maturation. Examined inertinite fragments were generally insensitive to the applied thermal stress, reinforcing the idea that reservoir temperature may be secondary for dictating the molecular composition of inertinite. Additional analysis of Raman spectra for individual organic matter macerals was performed using multivariate curve resolution (MCR) and correlation of standard Raman and reflectance-derived thermal maturity proxies against MCR parameters shows consistent trends. This trend suggests that MCR may be a fast and statistically robust method for extracting compositional information from Raman spectra of sedimentary organic matter, and can be used to construct thermal maturity relationships. These findings inform our understanding of how different petroliferous organic matter maceral types evolve throughout thermal reactions and further demonstrate that Raman spectroscopy combined with petrographic analysis can provide complementary estimates of organic matter composition and thermal maturity.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2014

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 − reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 − and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 − reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 − trends were similar to historical measurements. Results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

California↗
USGS2018

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2012

Diversity of nitrogen isotopes and protein status in caribou: implications for monitoring northern ungulates

Nutritional condition is an important determinant of productivity and survival in caribou (Rangifer tarandus). We used samples of excreta (n = 1,150) to estimate diet composition from microhistology and 2 isotopic proxies of protein status for 2 ecotypes of caribou in 4 herds in late winter (2006–2008). Isotopes of nitrogen (δ 15 N in parts per thousand [‰]) from excreta samples (urea, diet, and body N) were used to estimate indexes of protein status: the proportion of urea N derived from body N (p-UN) and the difference between the δ15N of the body and urinary urea (Δbody-urea). We examined dietary and terrain characteristics, δ 15 N, p-UN, and Δ body-urea by ecotype, herd, year, and foraging site. Multiple regression and an information-theoretic approach were used to evaluate correlates of protein status at each foraging site. The dietary and terrain characteristics of foraging sites did not vary by ecotype or herd (P > 0.108); diets were dominated by lichens (68% ± 14.1% SD). The δ 15 N of urea, diet, body N, p-UN, and Δ body-urea varied among foraging sites within each herd (P < 0.001). Although highly variable, the δ 15 N of urinary urea was typically low (−4.68‰ ± 2.67‰ SD). Dietary N also had low δ 15 N (−4.18‰ ± 0.92‰ SD), whereas body N was generally heavier in 15 N (2.20‰ ± 1.56‰ SD) than urinary urea or the diet. Both measures of protein status were similarly diverse between ecotypes and among herds, which limited their applicability to monitor protein status at the population level. Although we observed limitations to interpreting estimates of p-UN from highly vagile ungulates, the Δbody-urea may prove to be a useful index of protein status at smaller spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, a portion of the observed variance (r 2 = 0.26) in Δbody-urea at each foraging site was explained by the proportion of shrubs in the winter diet. There remains potential in using δ 15 N in excreta as a noninvasive tool for evaluating protein status in northern ungulates; however, considerable analytical and sampling challenges remain for applying these isotopic approaches at large scales.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Evaluation of trap capture in a geographically closed population of brown treesnakes on Guam

1. Open population mark-recapture analysis of unbounded populations accommodates some types of closure violations (e.g. emigration, immigration). In contrast, closed population analysis of such populations readily allows estimation of capture heterogeneity and behavioural response, but requires crucial assumptions about closure (e.g. no permanent emigration) that are suspect and rarely tested empirically. 2. In 2003, we erected a double-sided barrier to prevent movement of snakes in or out of a 5-ha semi-forested study site in northern Guam. This geographically closed population of >100 snakes was monitored using a series of transects for visual searches and a 13 ?? 13 trapping array, with the aim of marking all snakes within the site. Forty-five marked snakes were also supplemented into the resident population to quantify the efficacy of our sampling methods. We used the program mark to analyse trap captures (101 occasions), referenced to census data from visual surveys, and quantified heterogeneity, behavioural response, and size bias in trappability. Analytical inclusion of untrapped individuals greatly improved precision in the estimation of some covariate effects. 3. A novel discovery was that trap captures for individual snakes consisted of asynchronous bouts of high capture probability lasting about 7 days (ephemeral behavioural effect). There was modest behavioural response (trap happiness) and significant latent (unexplained) heterogeneity, with small influences on capture success of date, gender, residency status (translocated or not), and body condition. 4. Trapping was shown to be an effective tool for eradicating large brown treesnakes Boiga irregularis (>900 mm snout-vent length, SVL). 5. Synthesis and applications. Mark-recapture modelling is commonly used by ecological managers to estimate populations. However, existing models involve making assumptions about either closure violations or response to capture. Physical closure of our population on a landscape scale allowed us to determine the relative importance of covariates influencing capture probability (body size, trappability periods, and latent heterogeneity). This information was used to develop models in which different segments of the population could be assigned different probabilities of capture, and suggests that modelling of open populations should incorporate easily measured, but potentially overlooked, parameters such as body size or condition. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2024

The petrology of dispersed organic matter in sedimentary rocks: Review and update

Organic petrology developed from coal petrology, and, in the 1960s, it began to be applied to the study of dispersed organic matter (DOM) in sedimentary rocks other than coal. Over the last few decades, the petrology of DOM has been used to characterize organic matter in sedimentary basins with an emphasis on fossil fuel resource exploration. Today, due to the global research shift on topics related to climate, organic petrology has expanded into new application areas, such as geothermal exploration, biological carbon storage (biochar), disposal, and management of radioactive waste. From the publication of the International Handbook of Coal Petrology (mid-20th century) to the present day, a large number of standards, books, and articles have been published as a result of the work of organic petrographers and petrologists around the world and efforts of the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology (ICCP) and The Society for Organic Petrology (TSOP) to promote the study of organic petrology. The current fundamentals and standards of organic petrology provide the international scientific community with well-informed guidance and recommendations to promote in-depth research. However, this information is currently widely scattered, leading to discrepancies in methodology and terminology. Therefore, this paper aims to present a comprehensive review of the main analytical standard test methods and techniques currently used in the petrology of DOM under reflected white light and UV and blue-light excitation, and to provide an efficient and well-defined reference guide. Furthermore, considering the important role of the ICCP in the development of organic petrology since the 1950s, a brief review of the ongoing activities of ICCP dealing with DOM is also presented.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗
USGS2021

Post-wildfire hydrologic recovery in Mediterranean climates: A systematic review and case study to identify current knowledge and opportunities

Post-fire hydrologic research typically focuses on the first few years after a wildfire , leading to substantial uncertainty regarding the longevity of impacts. The time needed for hydrologic function to return to pre-fire conditions is critical information for post-fire land and water management decisions. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climates , where water is scarce and in high demand, and the severity and area burned by wildfires are increasing. In part, uncertainty about hydrologic recovery is due to lack of a consistent definition or interpretation of what constitutes “recovery.” Here, we systematically reviewed empirical studies from Mediterranean climates with at least three years of post-fire hydrologic data with the objectives of (a) assessing the recovery period, (b) identifying a definition of post-fire hydrologic recovery, (c) demonstrating a simple analytical approach to aid in assessment of recovery, and (d) outlining research needs and opportunities to better quantify post-fire recovery. We assessed the hydrologic effects reported in 38 sites that were monitored for 3–20 years. Eighteen sites were considered recovered within seven years; however, the recovery time was inconsistent across sites and was not related to location, response variable, or study design. The likelihood of recovery within the study period also decreased with increasing proportion of the watershed area burned. Importantly, we have also proposed a standardized definition and an approach to quantifying hydrologic recovery that may facilitate cross-study comparisons and a deeper understanding of recovery. Specifically, we propose hydrologic recovery has occurred when a specific post-fire hydrologic function or condition of interest returns to the 95% confidence interval of the pre-fire condition. In support of this definition, we have demonstrated applying this simple approach to assess recovery and presented future research topics to improve our understanding of long-term post-fire catchment responses. In addition to the need for more studies that quantify hydrologic responses farther into the post-fire period, understanding post-fire changes in soil structural and hydraulic properties through time will improve our mechanistic understanding of post-fire hydrologic responses and recovery.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2014

Accounting for false-positive acoustic detections of bats using occupancy models

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive occupancy model to data from paired bat detector and mist-net surveys to estimate probability of presence when survey data may include false positives. We compared estimated occupancy and detection rates to those obtained from a standard occupancy model. We also derived a formula to estimate the probability that bats were present at a site given its detection history. As an example, we analysed survey data for little brown bats Myotis lucifugus from 135 sites in Washington and Oregon, USA. 3. We estimated that at an unoccupied site, acoustic surveys had a 14% chance per night of producing spurious M. lucifugus detections. Estimated detection rates were higher and occupancy rates were lower under the false-positive model, relative to a standard occupancy model. Un-modelled false positives also affected inferences about occupancy at individual sites. For example, probability of occupancy at individual sites with acoustic detections but no captures ranged from 2% to 100% under the false-positive occupancy model, but was always 100% under a standard occupancy model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that false positives sufficient to affect inferences may be common in acoustic surveys for bats. We demonstrate an approach that can estimate occupancy, regardless of the false-positive rate, when acoustic surveys are paired with capture surveys. Applications of this approach include monitoring the spread of White-Nose Syndrome, estimating the impact of climate change and informing conservation listing decisions. We calculate a site-specific probability of occupancy, conditional on survey results, which could inform local permitting decisions, such as for wind energy projects. More generally, the magnitude of false positives suggests that false-positive occupancy models can improve accuracy in research and monitoring of bats and provide wildlife managers with more reliable information.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS1981

Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)

Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored

Southern Economic Journal↗