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Chesapeake Bay: A case study in resiliency and restoration

Chesapeake Bay (“mother of waters” or the “great shellfish Bay” in Algonquin), is the largest estuary in the United States and arguably the best studied estuary in the world. Chesapeake Bay is immense, with the main stem stretching 200 nautical miles (315 km) from the mouth of the Susquehanna River to its terminus at the Atlantic Ocean and an overall watershed encompassing 64,000 mi2 (165,000 km2). The mainstem, tributaries, and Bay islands form thousands of miles of coastline (Figure 1). Because of its prominence in estuarine science and ecosystem restoration, developing a working knowledge of Chesapeake Bay science and restoration is important. Hopefully, this overview will whet the appetite to learn more from information available both in the scientific literature and on the Chesapeake Bay Program website www.chesapeakebay.net

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Estimated daily mean streamflow in Iowa using the Flow-Duration Curve Transfer Method StreamStats application

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates many streamgages throughout the country that provide historical and real-time daily streamflow information. Accurate estimates of daily streamflow and the percentage of time that a certain volume of streamflow occurs or is exceeded in a stream is crucial information for structure design and other activities conducted by federal, state, and local officials. However, many important locations are ungaged and therefore lack the in-depth data provided at streamgages. The USGS provides hydrologic information like streamflow statistics and drainage basin characteristics in the web-based tool StreamStats (https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/). A newly released StreamStats functionality developed by the StreamStats development team working closely with USGS scientists in the Central Midwest Water Science Center incorporates flow-duration statistics already available at USGS streamgages to calculate daily mean streamflow estimates for rural, ungaged locations in Iowa [1].

Iowa

Flood-frequency analysis in the Midwest: Addressing potential nonstationarity of annual peak-flow records

Flood-frequency analysis is essential in numerous water-resource management applications, including critical structure design and flood-plain mapping. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C [1], the standardized guidelines for conducting flood-frequency analysis, is that basins without major hydrologic alterations, such as regulation or urbanization, exhibit stationary statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflow. That is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant over time and the peak-flow record is a representative sample of the population of future floods [1]. In recent decades, better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about climate and land-use change have caused the assumption of stationarity in peak-flow records to be reexamined [2, 3, 4, 5]. Under nonstationary conditions, the long-term distributional properties (mean, variance, and/or skew) of peak-flow series change one or more times, either gradually or abruptly. Nonstationarities may be attributed to one source, but are often a result of a mixture of drivers, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging [6, 7, 8]. Failure to incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes into flood-frequency analysis may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C currently offers no guidance on how to account for nonstationarities when estimating floods and acknowledges the benefit additional flood frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics into the analysis would provide[1].

Midwest