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Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii
We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.
Dispersal of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in a Hawaiian rain forest
Introduced mosquito-borne pathogens avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum Grassi and Feletti) and avian pox virus (Avipoxvirus) have been implicated in the past extinctions and declines of Hawaiian avifauna and remain significant obstacles to the recovery and restoration of endemic Hawaiian birds. Effective management of avian disease will require extensive mosquito control efforts that are guided by the local ecology of the vector Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae). During October and November 1997 and September through November 1998 five mark-release-recapture experiments with laboratory-reared Cx. quinquefasciatus were conducted in a native rain forest on Hawaii Island. Of the overall 66,047 fluorescent dye-marked and released females, 1,192 (1.8%) were recaptured in 43-52 CO2-baited traps operated for 10-12-d trapping periods. Recaptured mosquitoes were trapped in all directions and at distances up to 3 km from the release site. The cumulative mean distance traveled (MDTs) over the trapping period ranged from a high of 1.89 km after 11 d (September 1998) to a low of 0.81 km after 11 d (November 1998). Released mosquitoes moved predominately in a downwind direction and they seemed to use forestry roads as dispersal corridors. Applying an estimated MDT of 1.6 km to a geographical information system-generated map of the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge clearly demonstrated that the effective refuge area could be reduced 60% by mosquitoes infiltrating into managed refuge lands. These findings should have significant implications for the design of future refuges and development of effective mosquito-borne avian disease control strategies.