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USGS1994

PRISM 8 degrees X 10 degrees North Hemisphere paleoclimate reconstruction; digital data

The PRISM 8?x10? data set represents several years of investigation by PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping) Project members. One of the goals of PRISM is to produce time-slice reconstructions of intervals of warmer than modern climate within the Pliocene Epoch. The first of these was chosen to be at 3.0 Ma (time scale of Berggren et al., 1985) and is published in Global and Planetary Change (Dowsett et al., 1994). This document contains the actual data sets and a brief explanation of how they were constructed. For paleoenvironmental interpretations and discussion of each data set, see Dowsett et al., in press. The data sets includes sea level, land ice distribution, vegetation or land cover, sea surface temperature and sea-ice cover matrices. This reconstruction of Middle Pliocene climate is organized as a series of datasets representing different environmental attributes. The data sets are designed for use with the GISS Model II atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) using an 8?x10? resolution (Hansen et al., 1983). The first step in documenting the Pliocene climate involves assigning an appropriate fraction of land versus ocean to each grid box. Following grid cell by grid cell, land versus ocean allocations, winter and summer sea ice coverage of ocean areas are assigned and then winter and summer sea surface temperatures are assigned to open ocean areas. Average land ice cover is recorded for land areas and then land areas not covered by ice are assigned proportions of six vegetation or land cover categories modified from Hansen et al. (1983).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Planetary-scale change to the biosphere signalled by global species translocations can be used to identify the Anthropocene

We examine three distinctive biostratigraphic signatures associated with: hunting and gathering, landscape domestication, and globalisation. All three signatures have significant fossil records of regional importance that can be correlated inter-regionally and help describe the developing pattern of human expansion and appropriation of resources. While none have individual first or last appearances that provide a globally isochronous marker, all three signatures overlap stratigraphically, in that they are part of a continuum of change, with complex regional patterns. Here we show that during the later stages of globalisation, late 19th to 20th century records of species translocations can be used to build an interconnected web of palaeontological correlation with decadal or sub-decadal precision that dovetails with other stratigraphic markers for the Anthropocene. This palaeontological web is also a proxy for accelerating species extinction and of a state shift in the biosphere in the 20th century.

Palaeontology↗

USGS2007

Late nineteenth to early twenty-first century behavior of Alaskan glaciers as indicators of changing regional climate

Alaska's climate is changing and one of the most significant indications of this change has been the late 19th to early 21st century behavior of Alaskan glaciers. Weather station temperature data document that air temperatures throughout Alaska have been increasing for many decades. Since the mid-20th century, the average change is an increase of ?????2.0????C. In order to determine the magnitude and pattern of response of glaciers to this regional climate change, a comprehensive analysis was made of the recent behavior of hundreds of glaciers located in the eleven Alaskan mountain ranges and three island areas that currently support glaciers. Data analyzed included maps, historical observations, thousands of ground-and-aerial photographs and satellite images, and vegetation proxy data. Results were synthesized to determine changes in length and area of individual glaciers. Alaskan ground photography dates from 1883, aerial photography dates from 1926, and satellite photography and imagery dates from the early 1960s. Unfortunately, very few Alaskan glaciers have any mass balance observations. In most areas analyzed, every glacier that descends below an elevation of ?????1500??m is currently thinning and/or retreating. Many glaciers have an uninterrupted history of continuous post-Little-Ice-Age retreat that spans more than 250??years. Others are characterized by multiple late 19th to early 21st century fluctuations. Today, retreating and/or thinning glaciers represent more than 98% of the glaciers examined. However, in the Coast Mountains, St. Elias Mountains, Chugach Mountains, and the Aleutian Range more than a dozen glaciers are currently advancing and thickening. Many currently advancing glaciers are or were formerly tidewater glaciers. Some of these glaciers have been expanding for more than two centuries. This presentation documents the post-Little-Ice-Age behavior and variability of the response of many Alaskan glaciers to changing regional climate. ?? 2006.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2016

Effect of land cover change on snow free surface albedo across the continental United States

Land cover changes (e.g., forest to grassland) affect albedo, and changes in albedo can influence radiative forcing (warming, cooling). We empirically tested albedo response to land cover change for 130 locations across the continental United States using high resolution (30 m-×-30 m) land cover change data and moderate resolution (~ 500 m-×-500 m) albedo data. The land cover change data spanned 10 years (2001 − 2011) and the albedo data included observations every eight days for 13 years (2001 − 2013). Empirical testing was based on autoregressive time series analysis of snow free albedo for verified locations of land cover change. Approximately one-third of the autoregressive analyses for woody to herbaceous or forest to shrub change classes were not significant, indicating that albedo did not change significantly as a result of land cover change at these locations. In addition, ~ 80% of mean differences in albedo arising from land cover change were less than ± 0.02, a nominal benchmark for precision of albedo measurements that is related to significant changes in radiative forcing. Under snow free conditions, we found that land cover change does not guarantee a significant albedo response, and that the differences in mean albedo response for the majority of land cover change locations were small.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS1998

Effect of calcium carbonate saturation of seawater on coral calcification

The carbonate chemistry of seawater is usually not considered to be an important factor influencing calcium-carbonate-precipitation by corals because surface seawater is supersaturated with respect to aragonite. Recent reports, however, suggest that it could play a major role in the evolution and biogeography of recent corals. We investigated the calcification rates of five colonies of the zooxanthellate coral Stylophora pistillata in synthetic seawater using the alkalinity anomaly technique. Changes in aragonite saturation from 98% to 585% were obtained by manipulating the calcium concentration. The results show a nonlinear increase in calcification rate as a function of aragonite saturation level. Calcification increases nearly 3-fold when aragonite saturation increases from 98% to 390%, i.e., close to the typical present saturation state of tropical seawater. There is no further increase of calcification at saturation values above this threshold. Preliminary data suggest that another coral species, Acropora sp., displays a similar behaviour. These experimental results suggest: (l) that the rate of calcification does not change significantly within the range of saturation levels corresponding to the last glacial-interglacial cycle, and (2) that it may decrease significantly in the future as a result of the decrease in the saturation level due to anthropogenic release of CO2 into the atmosphere. Experimental studies that control environmental conditions and seawater composition provide unique opportunities to unravel the response of corals to global environmental changes.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2025

Anthropogenic activities have greatly altered mangroves over the last hundred years

Mangroves not only provide ecosystem and cultural services but also contribute to the mitigation of global warming. Mangrove dynamics and their environmental responses as re-constructed from the past can inform current mangrove conservation and restoration. However, our understanding of mangrove dynamics over the past century and the impact of human activities on these ecosystems remains limited. Using the quantified mangrove-derived organic carbon (MOC) contributions of seven sediment cores, we reconstructed the historical mangrove dynamics in Yingluo Bay and the Maowei Sea in tropical China dating back to 1900. The results indicated that the natural undisturbed mangroves in Yingluo Bay flourished in response to rising temperatures. In contrast, the significantly human-disturbed mangroves in Maowei Sea experienced a marked decline. Although both areas share similar natural conditions, intense anthropogenic disturbance reversed the natural potential for mangrove growth in the Maowei Sea. To explore the global prevalence of this phenomenon, we compiled data on mangrove pollen, δ 13 C org , MOC, and mangrove area change from over 40 sites/regions worldwide, and re-constructed the natural and human-affected mangrove dynamics over the past century. Our findings indicated that, owing to the globally rising temperatures, natural undisturbed mangroves have gradually expanded as progressively more healthy forests, while human-disturbed mangroves exhibited three patterns: (1) continuous degradation, (2) flourishing-degradation, and (3) degradation-regeneration. Anthropogenic activities, such as seawall construction, aquaculture activity, agricultural expansion, logging, and urbanization have significantly reversed the natural health of mangroves such that any conservation and restoration strategy used for mangroves globally could inherently consider anthropogenic factors along with natural environmental change for better outcomes.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2016

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2018

Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century

Most of the African continent is semi-arid and hence prone to extreme variations in rainfall from year to year. The extreme droughts that have plagued the Sahel and eastern Africa are particularly well known. This article uses a markedly expanded and updated rainfall data set to examine rainfall variability in 13 sectors that cover most of the continent. Annual rainfall is presented for each sector; the March-to-May and October–November seasons are also examined for equatorial sectors. In each case, the article includes the longest and most comprehensive precipitation gauge series ever published. All time series cover at least a century and most cover roughly one and one-half centuries or more. Although towards the end of the 20th century there was a widespread trend towards more arid conditions, few significant trends are evident over the entire period of record. The largest were downward trends in the Sahel and western sectors of North Africa. In those regions, an abrupt reduction in rainfall occurred around 1968, but a synchronous change occurred many other parts of Africa. A recovery did occur in the Sahel, but to varying degrees across the east-west expanse of the region. Noteworthy is that the west-to-east rainfall gradient across the region appears to have weakened in recent decades. For the continent as a whole, another change began in the 1980s decade, with more arid conditions persisting at the continental scale until early in the twenty-first century. No other such period of dry conditions occurred within the roughly one and one-half centuries evaluated here. A notable change also occurred at the seasonal level. During the period 1980 to 1998 rainfall during March-to-May was well below the long-term mean throughout most of the area from 20° N to 35° S. At the same time rainfall was above the long-term mean in most of eastern sectors within this latitude span, indicating a change in the seasonality of rainfall of a large part of Africa.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2021

Shallow marine ecosystem collapse and recovery during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the most well-studied transient hyperthermal event in Earth history, is characterized by prominent and dynamic changes in global marine ecosystems. Understanding such biotic responses provides valuable insights into future scenarios in the face of anthropogenic warming. However, evidence of the PETM biotic responses is largely biased towards deep-sea records, whereas shallow-marine evidence remains scarce and elusive. Here we investigate a shallow-marine microfaunal record from Maryland, eastern United States, to comprehensively document the shallow-marine biotic response to the PETM. We applied birth-death modeling to estimate the local diversity dynamics, combined with evaluation of time-variable preservation artifacts. We discovered strong increase of species disappearance and appearance predating the onset and at the final recovery phase of the PETM, respectively. Our paleoecological analyses indicate that bathymetric habitat compression due to extreme warmth and oxygen minimum zone expansion caused shallow-marine benthic species extirpation and ecosystem perturbation during the PETM; and that rapid recovery and diversification followed the PETM disaster, thus contributing new understanding to the shallow-marine biotic changes in a broad context of global warming.

Maryland↗

USGS2025

Seasonal increases in global dryland gross primary production are modulated by root soil moisture and temperature

Dryland ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to environmental variability across space and through time, play a critical role in the global carbon cycle. To understand the carbon sink role of drylands, this study used different sources of global dryland gross primary productivity (GPP) and evaluated the spatiotemporal variations in seasonal GPP in response to climatic and soil water conditions from 1982 to 2018. Root-zone soil moisture consistently exerted a predominant positive influence on dryland GPP across all seasons, while the effect of surface soil moisture was less influential. Maximum temperature (Tmax) ranked as the second most influential factor on GPP, switching from a notable positive effect during cooler seasons to a negative impact during warmer seasons. Similarly, during cool seasons, vapor pressure deficit exhibited a notable positive effect on GPP, but this influence became negative in warmer seasons. Tmax indirectly regulated GPP by modulating the influence of other meteorological factors. During the warm season, Tmax negatively affected GPP via VPD, while in the cold season, it positively affected GPP through VPD. This study explicitly identifies the pivotal role of root-zone soil moisture in determining GPP and highlights the substantial seasonal differences and regulatory role of temperature in how other environmental variables influence GPP. These findings provide a novel perspective for understanding the responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2012

Effects of future climate change, CO 2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 , and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO 2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO 2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO 2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO 2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO 2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2020

Climate sensitivity to decadal land cover and land use change across the conterminous United States

Transitions to terrestrial ecosystems attributable to land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and climate change can affect the climate at local to regional scales. However, conclusions from most previous studies do not provide information about local climate effects, and little research has directly quantified how LCLUC intensity within different ecoregions relates to climate variation. In this study, we present an observation-based analysis of climate sensitivity to LCLUC based on decadal LCLUC and climate data in different ecoregions. Our results revealed that variations in land surface temperature and vapor pressure were most sensitive to LCLUC across the conterminous United States, while precipitation was less sensitive. Persistent warming effects were produced from LCLUC in Appalachian and some of the central U.S., High Plains, and northwest ecoregions, but cooling effects were evident in the many southeast, northeast and some Great Lakes and Intermountain West ecoregions. Most of the warming and a few cooling ecoregions were sensitive to LCLUC. Ecoregions with increasing vapor pressure were found across the Great Plains, Intermountain West, and West Coast ecoregions and several of these regions in the Great Plains and West Coast were sensitive to LCLUC. A combination of changes in temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure was used to characterize climate sensitivity associated with LCLUC forcing, and five major persistent patterns were found in some ecoregions. These findings suggest that climate conditions, especially temperature and vapor pressure, in some ecoregions are sensitive to LCLUC and such change should be better incorporated into regional climate assessments.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2009

Late Pleistocene Sea level on the New Jersey Margin: Implications to eustasy and deep-sea temperature

We assembled and dated a late Pleistocene sea-level record based on sequence stratigraphy from the New Jersey margin and compared it with published records from fossil uplifted coral reefs in New Guinea, Barbados, and Araki Island, as well as a composite sea-level estimate from scaling of Red Sea isotopic values. Radiocarbon dates, amino acid racemization data, and superposition constrain the ages of large (20-80??m) sea-level falls from New Jersey that correlate with Marine Isotope Chrons (MIC) 2, 3b, 4, 5b, and 6 (the past 130??kyr). The sea-level records for MIC 1, 2, 4, 5e, and 6 are similar to those reported from New Guinea, Barbados, Araki, and the Red Sea; some differences exist among records for MIC 3. Our record consistently provides the shallowest sea level estimates for MIC3 (??? 25-60??m below present); it agrees most closely with the New Guinea record of Chappell (2002; ??? 35-70??m), but contrasts with deeper estimates provided by Araki (??? 85-95??m) and the Red Sea (50-90??m). Comparison of eustatic estimates with benthic foraminiferal ?? 18 O records shows that the deep sea cooled ??? 2.5????C between MIC 5e and 5d (??? 120-110??ka) and that near freezing conditions persisted until Termination 1a (14-15??ka). Sea-level variations between MIC 5b and 2 (ca. 90-20??ka) follow a well-accepted 0.1???/10??m linear variation predicted by ice-growth effects on foraminiferal ?? 18 O values. The pattern of deep-sea cooling follows a previously established hysteresis loop between two stable modes of operation. Cold, near freezing deep-water conditions characterize most of the past 130??kyr punctuated only by two warm intervals (the Holocene/MIC 1 and MIC 5e). We link these variations to changes in Northern Component Water (NCW). ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS1995

Effects of a 2 x CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by 3 1 2 "> 312 years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO 2 experiments (2 × CO 2 ) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4. Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO 2 climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO 2 climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr −1 in the control to 1595 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr −1 in the control to +27 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation due to increased precipitation. For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO 2 climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO 2 climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO 2 climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr −1 to 600 mm yr −1 in the 2 × CO 2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr −1 in the control to +619 mm yr −1 due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.

Nevada, Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Provenance of Holocene sediment on the Chukchi-Alaskan margin based on combined diffuse spectral reflectance and quantitative X-Ray Diffraction analysis

Sediment clay and silt mineral assemblages provide an excellent means of assessing the provenance of fine-grained Arctic sediment especially when a unique mineral assemblage can be tied to specific source areas. The diffuse spectral reflectance (DSR) first derivative measurements and quantitative X-Ray Diffraction (qXRD) on a high-resolution sediment core from the continental slope north of Alaska constrain the sediment mineralogy. DSR results are augmented by measurements on several adjacent cores and compared to surface sediment samples from the northern Alaskan shelf and slope. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we infer that the three leading DSR modes relate to mixtures of smectite + dolomite, illite + goethite, and chlorite + muscovite. This interpretation is consistent with the down core qXRD results. While the smectite + dolomite, and illite + goethite factors show increased variability down core, the chlorite + muscovite factor had highest positive loadings in the middle Holocene, between ca. 6.0 and 3.6??ka. Because the most likely source of the chlorite + muscovite suite in this vicinity lies in the North Pacific, we argue that the oscillations in chlorite + muscovite values likely reflect an increase in the inflow of Pacific water to the Arctic through the Bering Strait. The time interval of this event is associated in other parts of the globe with a non-linear response of the climate system to the decrease in insolation, which may be related to changes in water exchange between the Pacific and Arctic Ocean. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2008

Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000

During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 ?? 103??km2) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric-oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these "normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these "excess" rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2009

Coral reef evolution on rapidly subsiding margins

A series of well-developed submerged coral reefs are preserved in the Huon Gulf (Papua New Guinea) and around Hawaii. Despite different tectonics settings, both regions have experienced rapid subsidence (2-6??m/ka) over the last 500??ka. Rapid subsidence, combined with eustatic sea-level changes, is responsible for repeated drowning and backstepping of coral reefs over this period. Because we can place quantitative constraints on these systems (i.e., reef drowning age, eustatic sea-level changes, subsidence rates, accretion rates, basement substrates, and paleobathymetry), these areas represent unique natural laboratories for exploring the roles of tectonics, reef accretion, and eustatic sea-level changes in controlling the evolution of individual reefs, as well as backstepping of the entire system. A review of new and existing bathymetric, radiometric, sedimentary facies and numerical modeling data indicate that these reefs have had long, complex growth histories and that they are highly sensitive, recording drowning not only during major deglaciations, but also during high-frequency, small-amplitude interstadial and deglacial meltwater pulse events. Analysis of five generalized sedimentary facies shows that reef drowning is characterized by a distinct biological and sedimentary sequence. Observational and numerical modeling data indicate that on precessional (20??ka) and sub-orbital timescales, the rate and amplitude of eustatic sea-level changes are critical in controlling initiation, growth, drowning or sub-aerial exposure, subsequent re-initiation, and final drowning. However, over longer timescales (> 100-500??ka) continued tectonic subsidence and basement substrate morphology influence broad scale reef morphology and backstepping geometries. Drilling of these reefs will yield greatly expanded stratigraphic sections compared with similar reefs on slowly subsiding, stable and uplifting margins, and thus they represent a unique archive of sea-level and climate changes, as well as a record of the response of coral reefs to these changes over the last six glacial cycles. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2020

Parsing complex terrain controls on mountain glacier response to climate forcing

Glaciers are a key indicator of changing climate in the high mountain landscape. Glacier variations across a mountain range are ultimately driven by regional climate forcing. However, changes also reflect local, topographically driven processes such as snow avalanching, snow wind-drifting, and radiation shading as well as the initial glacier conditions such as hypsometry and ice thickness. Here we assess the role of these various terrain influences on change to Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers in Glacier National Park, U.S.A . With available data for LIA and modern glacier areas, we estimate glacier volumes using simple ice flow assumptions, and topographically driven processes using terrain proxies. At the LIA glacial maxima there were 82 glaciers larger than 0.1 km 2 ranging from 0.11 to 4.97 km 2 . Over the course of the 20 th century, every single LIA glacier decreased in area and 60% (49 glaciers) diminished to below the 0.1 km 2 threshold. Glaciers with large initial area (>1.5 km 2 ) at the end of LIA persisted. Within the intermediate size class (0.5 km 2 < area < 1.5 km 2 ), LIA glacier persistence is poorly explained by initial glacier volume, ice thickness, or elevation. Instead, wind exposure is an important explanatory factor. Our analysis demonstrates the complex response of cirque glaciers to post-LIA climate change in this region: individual glaciers have not necessarily undergone equivalent and synchronous change. Nevertheless, that all glaciers in this mountain range experienced retreat demonstrates that local processes mediated adjustments of some glaciers, but completely decoupled none from the regional climate forcing.

Montana↗