Fertilizers: Sustaining Global Food Supplies
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Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective
The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
Land-cover observations as part of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS): Progress, activities, and prospects
The international land-cover community has been working with GEO since 2005 to build the foundations for land-cover observations as an integral part of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The Group on Earth Observation (GEO) has provided the platform to elevate the societal relevance of land cover monitoring and helped to link a diverse set of global, regional, and national activities. A dedicated 2007-2009 GEO work plan task has resulted in achievements on the strategic and implementation levels. Integrated Global Observations of the Land (IGOL), the land theme of the Integrated Global Observation Strategy (IGOS), has been approved and is now in the process of transition into GEO implementation. New global land-cover maps at moderate spatial resolutions (i.e., GLOBCOVER) are being produced using guidelines and standards of the international community. The Middecadal Global Landsat Survey for 2005-2006 is extending previous 1990 and 2000 efforts for global, high-quality Landsat data. Despite this progress, essential challenges for building a sustained global land-cover-observing system remain, including: international cooperation on the continuity of global observations; ensuring consistency in land monitoring approaches; community engagement and country participation in mapping activities; commitment to ongoing quality assurance and validation; and regional networking and capacity building.
IEEE Systems Journal↗
Estimating the pelagic ocean’s benefits to humanity can enhance ocean governance
The human footprint on the global ocean is ever-increasing, particularly with new ways to grow food in the ocean, new technologies in marine energy production as a way to resolve climate change, and transport and commerce expanding across the ocean. Yet, human activities in the ocean have long been managed using a sectoral approach (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity protection, energy production, shipping) rather than a holistic integration of sector interactions, trade-offs, costs, and benefits. Coordination across sectors is now more critical than ever, not only because of the expanding human footprint but also because of climate change impacts on the ocean. Sustainable global ocean use can support the Blue Economy while also reversing negative climate impacts on the ocean. Advancements in science and technology, along with increasing momentum on global commitments to sound ocean governance, and science diplomacy internationally can support sustainable ocean use with accurate and timely information about the status and trends in the ocean’s ecosystem services (benefits) to society. Near-real time information about ecosystem services’ dynamics is critical to policymaking for a sustainable Blue Economy that works for nature and people in an ever-changing ocean. Here, we propose seven principles for ecosystem service assessments, essentially to international science diplomacy, for consideration by global marine policy communities.
Marine Policy↗
Supporting climate adaptation for rural Mekong River Basin communities in Thailand
Climate change impacts on large river basins, such as the Mekong River Basin (MRB), are complex due to shared governance and interconnected socioeconomic areas, making them highly vulnerable to change. The MRB, spanning six countries including Thailand, is crucial for the food and economic security of > 60 million people. However, in 2021, Thailand was ranked as the 9th highest risk country affected by climate change. To integrate climate adaptation in Thailand's MRB, we examined the effects of climate change on rapidly developing farmer and fisher communities in northeastern Thailand and explored feasible adaptation options. Using an interdisciplinary approach that included literature review, participatory action methods, and the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework, we found that climate change is projected to increase temperatures, precipitation, extreme events, erosion, and water clarity, while decreasing heavy sediment transport. These changes negatively impact agriculture, fisheries, human health, and tourism. We identified several adaptation strategies across environmental, ecological, and human health categories to accommodate local needs, such as preventing habitat degradation (e.g., from dams and deforestation), providing fish refuge and passage, and supporting technical capacity. Community-driven adaptation planning and implementation are essential for supporting global sustainable development in a changing climate.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Ch↗
Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: Directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models
“Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability↗
Carbon dioxide fluxes reflect plant zonation and belowground biomass in a coastal marsh
Coastal wetlands are major global carbon sinks; however, they are heterogeneous and dynamic ecosystems. To characterize spatial and temporal variability in a New England salt marsh, greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes were compared among major plant‐defined zones during growing seasons. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes were compared in two mensurative experiments during summer months (2012–2014) that included low marsh ( Spartina alterniflora ), high marsh ( Distichlis spicata and Juncus gerardii ‐dominated), invasive Phragmites australis zones, and unvegetated ponds. Day‐ and nighttime fluxes were also contrasted in the native marsh zones. N 2 O fluxes were measured in parallel with CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, but were not found to be significant. To test the relationships of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes with several native plant metrics, a multivariate nonlinear model was used. Invasive P. australis zones (−7 to −15 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) and S. alterniflora low marsh zones (up to −14 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) displayed highest average CO 2 uptake rates, while those in the native high marsh zone (less than −2 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ) were much lower. Unvegetated ponds were typically small sources of CO 2 to the atmosphere (<0.5 μmol CO 2 ·m −2 ·s −1 ). Nighttime emissions of CO 2 averaged only 35% of daytime uptake in the low marsh zone, but they exceeded daytime CO 2 uptake by up to threefold in the native high marsh zone. Based on modeling, belowground biomass was the plant metric most strongly correlated with CO 2 fluxes in native marsh zones, while none of the plant variables correlated significantly with CH 4 fluxes. Methane fluxes did not vary between day and night and did not significantly offset CO 2 uptake in any vegetated marsh zones based on sustained global warming potential calculations. These findings suggest that attention to spatial zonation as well as expanded measurements and modeling of GHG emissions across greater temporal scales will help to improve accuracy of carbon accounting in coastal marshes.
Massachusetts↗
Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany
Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.
Global Environmental Change↗
Global Cropland Area Database (GCAD) derived from Remote Sensing in Support of Food Security in the Twenty-first Century: Current Achievements and Future Possibilities
The precise estimation of the global agricultural cropland- extents, areas, geographic locations, crop types, cropping intensities, and their watering methods (irrigated or rainfed; type of irrigation) provides a critical scientific basis for the development of water and food security policies (Thenkabail et al., 2012, 2011, 2010). By year 2100, the global human population is expected to grow to 10.4 billion under median fertility variants or higher under constant or higher fertility variants (Table 1) with over three quarters living in developing countries, in regions that already lack the capacity to produce enough food. With current agricultural practices, the increased demand for food and nutrition would require in about 2 billion hectares of additional cropland, about twice the equivalent to the land area of the United States, and lead to significant increases in greenhouse gas productions (Tillman et al., 2011). For example, during 1960-2010 world population more than doubled from 3 billion to 7 billion. The nutritional demand of the population also grew swiftly during this period from an average of about 2000 calories per day per person in 1960 to nearly 3000 calories per day per person in 2010. The food demand of increased population along with increased nutritional demand during this period (1960-2010) was met by the “green revolution” which more than tripled the food production; even though croplands decreased from about 0.43 ha/capita to 0.26 ha/capita (FAO, 2009). The increase in food production during the green revolution was the result of factors such as: (a) expansion in irrigated areas which increased from 130 Mha in 1960s to 278.4 Mha in year 2000 (Siebert et al., 2006) or 399 Mha when you do not consider cropping intensity (Thenkabail et al., 2009a, 2009b, 2009c) or 467 Mha when you consider cropping intensity (Thenkabail et al., 2009a; Thenkabail et al., 2009c); (b) increase in yield and per capita food production (e.g., cereal production from 280 kg/person to 380 kg/person and meat from 22 kg/person to 34 kg/person (McIntyre, 2008); (c) new cultivar types (e.g., hybrid varieties of wheat and rice, biotechnology); and (d) modern agronomic and crop management practices (e.g., fertilizers, herbicide, pesticide applications). However, some of the factors that lead to the green revolution have stressed the environment to limits leading to salinization and decreasing water quality. For example, from 1960 to 2000, the phosphorous use doubled from 10 million tons to 20 MT, pesticide use tripled from near zero to 3 MT, and nitrogen use as fertilizer increased to a staggering 80 MT from just 10 MT (Foley et al., 2007; Khan and Hanjra, 2008). Further, diversion of croplands to bio-fuels is already taking water away from food production; the economics, carbon sequestration, environmental, and food security impacts of biofuel production are net negative (Lal and Pimentel, 2009), leaving us with a carbon debt (Gibbs et al., 2008; Searchinger et al., 2008). Climate models predict that in most regions of the world the hottest seasons on record will become the norm by the end of the century-an outcome that bodes ill for feeding the world (Kumar and Singh, 2005). Also, crop yield increases of the green revolution era have now stagnated (Hossain et al., 2005). Thereby, further increase in food production through increase in cropland areas and\or increased allocations of water for croplands are widely considered unsustainable and\or infeasible. Indeed, cropland areas have even begun to decrease in many 3 parts of the World due to factors such as urbanization, industrialization, and salinization. Furthermore, ecological and environmental imperatives such as biodiversity conservation and atmospheric carbon sequestration have put a cap on the possible expansion of cropland areas to other lands such as forests and rangelands. Other important factors limit food security. These include factors such as diversion of croplands to biofuels (Bindraban et al., 2009), limited water resources for irrigation expansion (Turral et al., 2009), limits on agricultural intensifications, loss of croplands to urbanization (Khan and Hanjra, 2008), increasing meat consumption (and associated demands on land and water) (Vinnari and Tapio, 2009), environmental infeasibility for cropland expansion (Gordon et al., 2009), and changing climate have all put pressure on our continued ability to sustain global food security in the twenty-first century. So, how does the World continue to meet its food and nutrition needs?. Solutions may come from bio-technology and precision farming, however developments in these fields are not currently moving at rates that will ensure global food security over next few decades. Further, there is a need for careful consideration of possible harmful effects of bio-technology. We should not be looking back 30– 50 years from now, like we have been looking back now at many mistakes made during the green revolution. During the green revolution the focus was only on getting more yield per unit area. Little thought was put about serious damage done to our natural environments, water resources, and human health as a result of detrimental factors such as uncontrolled use of herbicides-pesticides-nutrients, drastic groundwater mining, and salinization of fertile soils due to over irrigation. Currently, there is talk of a “second green revolution” or even an “ever green revolution”, but clear ideas on what these terms actually mean are still debated and are evolving. One of the biggest issues that are not given adequate focus is the use of large quantities of water for food production. Indeed, an overwhelming proportion (60-90%) of all human water use in India goes for producing their food (Falkenmark, M., & Rockström, 2006). But such intensive water use for food production is no longer tenable due to increasing pressure for water use alternatives such as increasing urbanization, industrialization, environmental flows, bio-fuels, and recreation. This has brought into sharp focus the need to grow more food per drop of water leading to a “blue revolution”
Book chapter↗
The perspective of youth: Envisioning transformative pathways and desirable futures for people and nature
This paper examines the pathways to desirable nature futures as envisioned by 22 young people from all United Nations regions and diverse cultural backgrounds who participated in the second edition of the IPBES Youth workshop (2022). The workshop employed the Three Horizons framework and the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to describe the plurality of youth visions for desirable nature futures and transformative pathways to achieve these visions. Based on the outcomes of the workshop, we conducted a qualitative content analysis categorizing the ideas and quantitatively assessed commonalities and differences among workshop groups, which were based on the NFF perspectives (nature for nature, nature for society, nature as culture, and a group in between perspectives). There were important differences in the visions and pathways articulated by the groups, but also commonalities, such as the importance of governance, community-based approaches, and education for achieving desirable nature futures. We also discuss the importance of flexibility in the NFF to accommodate diverse perspectives and involvement of youth in shaping global sustainability agendas. While many ideas raised by young people during this workshop align with existing conservation narratives, the study reveals the need to foster new and innovative ideas to drive transformative change that is sensitive to diverse contexts, histories, and experiences.
Sustainability Science↗
On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification
The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO 2 , lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO 2 . However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO 2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes.
Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
Diatom evidence for the onset of Pliocene cooling from AND-1B, McMurdo Sound, Antarctica
The late Pliocene, ~ 3.3–3.0 Ma, is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth in the geologic past. This window is the focus of climate reconstruction efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey's Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Data/Model Cooperative, and may provide a useful climate analog for the coming century. Reconstructions of past surface ocean conditions proximal to the Antarctic continent are essential to understanding the sensitivity of the cryosphere to this key interval in Earth's climate evolution. An exceptional marine sediment core collected from the southwestern Ross Sea (78° S), Antarctica, during ANDRILL's McMurdo Ice Shelf Project preserves evidence of dramatic fluctuations between grounded ice and productive, open ocean conditions during the late Pliocene, reflecting orbitally-paced glacial/interglacial cycling. In this near-shore record, diatom-rich sediments are recovered from interglacial intervals; two of these diatomites, from ~ 3.2 Ma and 3.03 Ma, are within the PRISM chronologic window. The diatom assemblages identified in PRISM-age late Pliocene diatom-rich sediments are distinct from those in mid-Pliocene and later Pliocene/Pleistocene intervals recovered from AND-1B, and comprise both extant taxa with well-constrained ecological preferences and a diverse extinct flora, some members of which are previously undescribed from Antarctic sediments. Both units are dominated by Chaetoceros resting spores, an indicator of high productivity and stratification that is present at much lower abundance in materials both older and younger than the PRISM-age sediments. Newly described species of the genus Fragilariopsis , which first appear in the AND-1B record at 3.2 Ma, are the most abundant extinct members of the PRISM-age assemblages. Other extant species with established environmental affinities, such as Fragilariopsis sublinearis , F . curta , Stellarima microtrias , and Thalassiothrix antarctica , are present at lower abundances. Environmental inferences drawn from extant diatom assemblages are in good agreement with those from Chaetoceros resting spores and the Fragilariopsis radiation. All three lines of evidence indicate the onset of late Pliocene cooling in the Ross Sea near-shore environment at 3.2 Ma, with intensification and possible regional persistence of summer sea ice by 3.03 Ma. An important implication of this research is the indication that the Ross Ice Shelf fluctuated dramatically on orbital timescales at a time when nearshore Antarctic conditions were only modestly warmer than present.
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models
In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.
Nature Climate Change↗
Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage
Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.
Nature Communications↗
A conceptual framework to integrate biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service models
Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections thus may be overly optimistic because they do not account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions underpinning their provision. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two model integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented at the global scale. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models that can be applied to more systems and taxa than the first pathway. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance development of policies to meet global sustainability goals.
BioScience↗
The United States Geological Survey: A vision for the 21st century
Leadership in Earth science for sustained global health, welfare, and prosperity. We envision a U.S. Geological Survey that is a global leader in relevant, innovative, and interdisciplinary Earth science. We shall conduct collaborative, impartial, multi-scale scientific investigations into the Earth's systems and conditions through a spectrum of basic to applied research on the environment, hazards, resources, and information management, all in support of present and future societal needs. We envision an organization that serves the public by sharing Earthscience data and information and by promoting its dissemination, understanding, and application. We shall be a flexible organization that values its employees and works in concert with them for attainment of both institutional and individual goals.
Report↗
Why bother about wildlife disease?
In most developed countries, the maintenance of the numbers of wildlife 1 is vested in the natural resource agencies of those countries. During earlier times, game species were the primary focus of natural resource agencies 2,3 however, current wildlife conservation continues to transition towards a more holistic focus on biodiversity 4 and environmental health 5,6 . Nevertheless, that transition lags behind in addressing wildlife disease in “…the struggle for existence between different forms of life…”. 7 Thus, the primary objective of this presentation is to provide a pragmatic assessment of wildlife disease that is irrespective of one’s orientation towards wildlife conservation. A secondary objective is to highlight the changing role of disease over time as a wildlife conservation factor. That transition is relevant to the insights provided for current and future efforts focused on sustaining global biodiversity and desired levels of wildlife populations in nature.
Circular↗
Tracing mercury from land to river: Global sources, retention, and implications for sustainability
Mercury (Hg) pollution in river systems is a global sustainability challenge. Yet the transport, transformation, and retention of Hg within global rivers remain poorly quantified, particularly in regions with sparse observations such as Southeast Asia and Africa, hindering effective pollution mitigation and reinforcing geographic inequities in scientific knowledge and environmental governance. Here, we present the first global, high-resolution simulation of riverine Hg dynamics using a process-based model that traces Hg from land-based sources through river networks to the ocean. Under a realistic scenario, we estimate that ∼1900 megagrams per year (Mg/yr) of Hg enters global rivers, including 1500 Mg/yr from human-induced sources and 400 Mg/yr from soil erosion. Nearly half of this flux (∼1000 Mg/yr) is retained in reservoirs and dams, which act as major sinks. While such retention limits downstream delivery to the oceans, it also heightens in-reservoir Hg methylation risks. By bridging the gap between Hg releases and observed riverine exports, our framework offers a scalable tool for data-limited regions, promotes data access, and supports global freshwater and pollution-management strategies.
Environmental Science & Technology↗