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Final Project Memorandum: Ecological implications of mangrove forest migration in the southeastern U.S.

Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological impacts of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial-nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought; habitat loss; coastal protection) to biogeochemical processes (e.g., carbon storage; water quality). This research specifically investigated the impact of mangrove forest migration on coastal wetland soil processes and the consequent implications for coastal wetland responses to sea level rise and carbon storage.

Report

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Conference Paper

Final project memorandum: Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Project

Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers worked with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop information sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100 including their potential impact on the missions of federally-managed lands. Researchers drew from existing information on regional and global sea-level rise scenarios to develop customized information sheets for 54 federally-managed lands in the region (e.g., National Wildlife Refuges, National Park Service lands, National Estuarine Research Reserves) (Chivoiu et al. 2020). This project was developed in response to a request for customized sea-level rise scenario products from partners at the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Gulf Restoration Program. The results of this project support the conservation stewardship missions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service by providing science to inform management of their lands along the Gulf of Mexico.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Final project memorandum: Identifying conservation objectives for the Gulf Coast habitats of the black skimmer and gull-billed tern

Many shorebirds and nearshore waterbirds are of conservation concern across the Gulf of Mexico due to stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss and degradation. Conservation and protection of these birds is important for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and for maintaining biodiversity in North America. Consequently, resource managers along the Gulf need decision-aiding tools that can help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g., how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a species’ needs). To address this need, project researchers developed statistical models that could help identify habitat conservation objectives and actions for bird species taking into account different Gulf coast conservation scenarios that might occur in response to sea-level rise. The project focused specifically on the Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ) and Gull-billed Tern ( Gelochelidon nilotica ), two species designated as U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Species of Conservation Concern and Gulf Coast Joint Venture Priority Species. These two birds are also representative of a variety of other beach and barrier-island nesting birds whose nesting habitats are threatened by sea-level rise (e.g., Least Tern, Snowy and Wilson’s Plover). The statistical models linked each bird’s abundance to habitat characteristics that could be influenced by different management actions. This information could be used to identify conservation objectives under different conservation scenarios.

Gulf of Mexico

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation strategies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). This project began by engaging the ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists in the region to determine the most valuable types of information to aid research and decision making. The final product provides projections of future climate at a 2km horizontal resolution based on three global climate models and two regional climate models for a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. Results from the projections suggest that for Puerto Rico, annual temperature would increase between 1°C and 1.3°C by mid-century with larger temperature increases located in the interior portion of the island. Precipitation totals decrease for much of the island with island average decline between 12% and 19%, with some potentially large localized decreases exceeding 30%. The projected changes for the USVI are dominated by the surrounding ocean environment. The resulting projections will be provided to stakeholders in the region via the USGS and the CLCC.

Puerto Rico

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum

Five years of monitoring a bio-engineered living shoreline: Comparison of oyster population development by reef technology.

The Living Shoreline Demonstration Project (PO-148) used five bio-engineered reef technologies (Reef Balls in two configurations; Figure 1) acting as breakwaters to protect vulnerable shorelines. While the primary goal is to attenuate wave energy, the sustainability and success of these products as “living” shorelines are based on their ability to enhance oyster habitat, enabling the reef to maintain elevation within the rapidly changing environment (i.e., sea level rise, subsidence). This report documents the recruitment, survival, and growth of the living components of the reef – oysters and other encrusting organisms (e.g. mussels, barnacles). This final technical report provides data from five years of monitoring (November 2017 – December 2021) of reefs located along the western side of Eloi Bay in Pontchartrain Basin (Figure 2). Monitoring goals included assessment of (1) annual oyster densities and population dynamics on the reefs, (2) annual density and diversity of other encrusting organisms, and (3) comparisons of outcomes by reef technology, exposure, and water quality. Detailed information on technologies used, construction design, as-built elevations are available in Coast & Harbor Engineering (2016) Design Memorandum dated March 25, 2016, submitted to Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority.

Louisiana

Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP): Inventory of existing water quality and habitat monitoring, and mapping metadata for Gulf of Mexico Programs

Under the Council-Selected Restoration Component of the RESTORE Act, the Council develops Funded Priority Lists (FPLs) that describe the projects and programs it will fund. Projects and programs funded through this component must be in furtherance of the goals and objectives of the Council’s Comprehensive Plan and address at least one of the restoration criteria identified in the RESTORE Act. The Initial FPL, finalized in December of 2015, had a strong focus on watershed and estuary restoration and foundational cross-Gulf projects. Approved as a Gulf-wide investment in the 2015 Initial FPL, The Council Monitoring and Assessment Program (CMAP) is administered jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Funded activities include the development of basic, foundational components for Gulf-wide monitoring to measure beneficial impacts of investments in Gulf restoration by the Council. The program, in coordination with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and through collaboration with the Gulf States, Federal and local partners, academia, non-governmental organizations, and business and industry, has leveraged existing resources, capacities, and expertise and build on existing monitoring data and programs.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Deep-sea coral research and technology program: Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative final report

Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska’s marine waters. In some places, such as the central and western Aleutian Islands, deep-sea coral and sponge resources can be extremely diverse and may rank among the most abundant deep-sea coral and sponge communities in the world. Many different species of fishes and invertebrates are associated with deep-sea coral and sponge communities in Alaska. Because of their biology, these benthic invertebrates are potentially impacted by climate change and ocean acidification. Deepsea coral and sponge ecosystems are also vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities. Because of the size and scope of Alaska’s continental shelf and slope, the vast majority of the area has not been visually surveyed for deep-sea corals and sponges. NOAA’s Deep Sea Coral Research and Technology Program (DSCRTP) sponsored a field research program in the Alaska region between 2012–2015, referred to hereafter as the Alaska Initiative. The priorities for Alaska were derived from ongoing data needs and objectives identified by the DSCRTP, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC), and Essential Fish Habitat-Environmental Impact Statement (EFH-EIS) process. This report presents the results of 15 projects conducted using DSCRTP funds from 2012-2015. Three of the projects conducted as part of the Alaska deep-sea coral and sponge initiative included dedicated at-sea cruises and fieldwork spread across multiple years. These projects were the eastern Gulf of Alaska Primnoa pacifica study, the Aleutian Islands mapping study, and the Gulf of Alaska fish productivity study. In all, there were nine separate research cruises carried out with a total of 109 at-sea days conducting research. The remaining projects either used data and samples collected by the three major fieldwork projects or were piggy-backed onto existing research programs at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC).

NOAA Technical Memorandum

Geology, geochemistry, and genesis of the Greens Creek massive sulfide deposit, Admiralty Island, southeastern Alaska

In 1996, a memorandum of understanding was signed by representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey and Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company to initiate a cooperative applied research project focused on the Greens Creek massive sulfide deposit in southeastern Alaska. The goals of the project were consistent with the mandate of the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program to maintain a leading role in national mineral deposits research and with the need of Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company to further development of the Greens Creek deposit and similar deposits in Alaska and elsewhere. The memorandum enumerated four main research priorities: (1) characterization of protoliths for the wall rocks, and elucidation of their alteration histories, (2) determination of the ore mineralogy and paragenesis, including metal residences and metal zonation within the deposit, (3) determination of the ages of events important to ore formation using both geochronology and paleontology, and (4) development of computer models that would allow the deposit and its host rocks to be examined in detail in three dimensions. The work was carried out by numerous scientists of diverse expertise over a period of several years. The written results, which are contained in this Professional Paper, are presented by 21 authors: 13 from the U.S. Geological Survey, 4 from Kennecott Greens Creek Mining Company, 2 from academia, and 2 from consultants. The Greens Creek deposit (global resource of 24.2 million tons at an average grade of 13.9 percent zinc, 5.1 percent lead, 0.15 troy ounce per ton gold, and 19.2 troy ounces per ton silver at zero cutoff) formed in latest Triassic time during a brief period of rifting of the Alexander terrane. The deposit exhibits a range of syngenetic, diagenetic, and epigenetic features that are typical of volcanogenic (VMS), sedimentary exhalative (SEDEX), and Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) genetic models. In the earliest stages of rifting, formation of precious-metal-rich silica-barite-carbonate white ores began at low temperature in a shallow, subaqueous setting, probably a thin carbonate shelf on the flanks of the Alexander landmass. Epigenetic carbonate replacement textures in the footwall dolostones are overlain by stratiform silica-carbonate-barite-rich ores and indicate that early mineralization formed at and just beneath the paleo sea floor by mixing of a reduced, precious-metal-rich, base-metal-poor hydrothermal fluid with oxygenated seawater. As rifting intensified, the shelf was downfaulted and isolated as a graben. Isolation of the basin and onset of starved-basin shale sedimentation was concurrent with emplacement of mafic-ultramafic intrusives at shallow levels in the rift, resulting in an increasingly higher temperature and progressively more anoxic ore-forming environment. The formation of the main stage of massive sulfide ores began as the supply of bacterially reduced sulfur increased in the accumulating shales. As the main-stage mineralization intensified, shale sedimentation inundated the hydrothermal system, eventually forming a cap. Biogenic sulfate reduction supplied reduced sulfur to the base of the shales where mixing occurred with hot, base-metal-rich hydrothermal fluids. Ore deposition continued by destruction and epigenetic replacement of the early white ores in proximal areas and by inflation and diagenetic replacement of unlithified shale at the interface between the white ores and the base of the shale cap. Ore deposition waned as the shales became lithified and as the supply of bacterially reduced sulfur to the site of ore deposition ceased. The final stages of rifting resulted in the emplacement of mafic-ultramafic intrusive rocks into the Greens Creek system and extrusion of voluminous basaltic flows at the top of the Triassic section. Greenschist facies metamorphism during the Jurassic-Cretaceous accretion of the Alexander terrane to the continental margin resulted in recrystalli

Professional Paper