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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2021

Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa

In eastern Africa droughts can cause crop failure and lead to food insecurity. With increasing temperatures, there is an a priori assumption that droughts are becoming more severe. However, the link between droughts and climate change is not sufficiently understood. Here we investigate trends in long-term agricultural drought and the influence of increasing temperatures and precipitation deficits. Using a combination of models and observational datasets, we studied trends, spanning the period from 1900 (to approximate pre-industrial conditions) to 2018, for six regions in eastern Africa in four drought-related annually averaged variables: soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and evaporative demand ( E 0 ). In standardized soil moisture data, we found no discernible trends. The strongest influence on soil moisture variability was from precipitation, especially in the drier or water-limited study regions; temperature and E 0 did not demonstrate strong relations to soil moisture. However, the error margins on precipitation trend estimates are large and no clear trend is evident, whereas significant positive trends were observed in local temperatures. The trends in E 0 are predominantly positive, but we do not find strong relations between E 0 and soil moisture trends. Nevertheless, the E 0 trend results can still be of interest for irrigation purposes because it is E 0 that determines the maximum evaporation rate. We conclude that until now the impact of increasing local temperatures on agricultural drought in eastern Africa is limited and we recommend that any soil moisture analysis be supplemented by an analysis of precipitation deficit.

Earth Systems Science Dynamics↗
USGS2014

Scale criticality in estimating ecosystem carbon dynamics

Scaling is central to ecology and Earth system sciences. However, the importance of scale (i.e. resolution and extent) for understanding carbon dynamics across scales is poorly understood and quantified. We simulated carbon dynamics under a wide range of combinations of resolution (nine spatial resolutions of 250 m, 500 m, 1 km, 2 km, 5 km, 10 km, 20 km, 50 km, and 100 km) and extent (57 geospatial extents ranging from 108 to 1 247 034 km 2 ) in the southeastern United States to explore the existence of scale dependence of the simulated regional carbon balance. Results clearly show the existence of a critical threshold resolution for estimating carbon sequestration within a given extent and an error limit. Furthermore, an invariant power law scaling relationship was found between the critical resolution and the spatial extent as the critical resolution is proportional to A n ( n is a constant, and A is the extent). Scale criticality and the power law relationship might be driven by the power law probability distributions of land surface and ecological quantities including disturbances at landscape to regional scales. The current overwhelming practices without considering scale criticality might have largely contributed to difficulties in balancing carbon budgets at regional and global scales.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2021

Semi-centennial of Landsat observations and pending Landsat 9 launch

The first Landsat was placed in orbit on 23 July 1972, followed by a series of missions that have provided nearly continuous, two-satellite 8-day repeat image coverage of the Earth’s land areas for the last half-century. These observations have substantially enhanced our understanding of the Earth’s terrestrial dynamics, both as a major element of the Earth’s physical system, the primary home of humans, and the major source of natural resources that support them. The history of Landsat is complex, reflective of the human systems that sustain it. Despite the conflicted perspectives surrounding the continuation of the program, Landsat has survived based on worldwide recognition of its critical contributions to understanding land dynamics, management of natural resources and Earth system science. Launch of Landsat 9 is anticipated in Fall 2021, and current planning for the next generation, Landsat Next is well underway. The community of Landsat data users is looking forward to another 50 years of the Landsat program.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing (PE↗
USGS2003

Cx-02 Program, workshop on modeling complex systems

This publication contains the abstracts and program for the workshop on complex systems that was held on November 19-21, 2002, in Reno, Nevada. Complex systems are ubiquitous within the realm of the earth sciences. Geological systems consist of a multiplicity of linked components with nested feedback loops; the dynamics of these systems are non-linear, iterative, multi-scale, and operate far from equilibrium. That notwithstanding, It appears that, with the exception of papers on seismic studies, geology and geophysics work has been disproportionally underrepresented at regional and national meetings on complex systems relative to papers in the life sciences. This is somewhat puzzling because geologists and geophysicists are, in many ways, preadapted to thinking of complex system mechanisms. Geologists and geophysicists think about processes involving large volumes of rock below the sunlit surface of Earth, the accumulated consequence of processes extending hundreds of millions of years in the past. Not only do geologists think in the abstract by virtue of the vast time spans, most of the evidence is out-of-sight. A primary goal of this workshop is to begin to bridge the gap between the Earth sciences and life sciences through demonstration of the universality of complex systems science, both philosophically and in model structures.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗
USGS2014

DigitalCrust – a 4D data system of material properties for transforming research on crustal fluid flow

Fluid circulation in the Earth's crust plays an essential role in surface, near surface, and deep crustal processes. Flow pathways are driven by hydraulic gradients but controlled by material permeability, which varies over many orders of magnitude and changes over time. Although millions of measurements of crustal properties have been made, including geophysical imaging and borehole tests, this vast amount of data and information has not been integrated into a comprehensive knowledge system. A community data infrastructure is needed to improve data access, enable large-scale synthetic analyses, and support representations of the subsurface in Earth system models. Here, we describe the motivation, vision, challenges, and an action plan for a community-governed, four-dimensional data system of the Earth's crustal structure, composition, and material properties from the surface down to the brittle–ductile transition. Such a system must not only be sufficiently flexible to support inquiries in many different domains of Earth science, but it must also be focused on characterizing the physical crustal properties of permeability and porosity, which have not yet been synthesized at a large scale. The DigitalCrust is envisioned as an interactive virtual exploration laboratory where models can be calibrated with empirical data and alternative hypotheses can be tested at a range of spatial scales. It must also support a community process for compiling and harmonizing models into regional syntheses of crustal properties. Sustained peer review from multiple disciplines will allow constant refinement in the ability of the system to inform science questions and societal challenges and to function as a dynamic library of our knowledge of Earth's crust.

Geofluids↗
USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey—Department of the Interior Region 11, Alaska —2020 annual science report

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission: The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision-makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five inter-connected themes: Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Ecosystems. The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in three Alaska-based science centers, a Cooperative Research Unit, and USGS centers outside Alaska, with a combined annual science budget of about $60 million. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 1,100 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/search?q=Alaska .

Alaska↗
USGS2022

U.S. Geological Survey—Department of the Interior Region 11, Alaska—2021–22 biennial science report

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission: The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict the current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions, and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision-makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five inter-connected themes: Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Ecosystems. The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in three Alaska-based science centers, a Cooperative Research Unit, and USGS centers outside Alaska, with a combined annual science budget of about $60 million. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 1,050 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/search?q=Alaska .

Alaska↗
USGS1972

Oceanic ridges and transform faults: Their intersection angles and resistance to plate motion

The persistent near-orthogonal pattern formed by oceanic ridges and transform faults defies explanation in terms of rigid plates because it probably depends on the energy associated with deformation. For passive spreading, it is likely that the ridges and transforms adjust to a configuration offering minimum resistance to plate separation. This leads to a simple geometric model which yields conditions for the occurrence of transform faults and an aid to interpretation of structural patterns in the sea floor. Under reasonable assumptions, it is much more difficult for diverging plates to spread a kilometer of ridge than to slip a kilometer of transform fault, and the patterns observed at spreading centers might extend to lithospheric depths. Under these conditions, the resisting force at spreading centers could play a significant role in the dynamics of plate-tectonic systems.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey—Department of the Interior, Region 11, Alaska—2023–24 biennial science report

Introduction U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mission—The USGS national mission is to monitor, analyze, and predict the current and evolving dynamics of complex human and natural Earth-system interactions and to deliver actionable information at scales and timeframes relevant to decision makers. Consistent with the national mission, the USGS in Alaska provides timely and objective scientific information to help address issues and inform management decisions across five interconnected focus areas: Energy and Minerals; Geospatial Mapping; Natural Hazards; Water Quality, Streamflow, and Ice Dynamics; and Ecosystems. The USGS in Alaska consists of approximately 350 scientists and support staff working in 3 Alaska-based science centers. USGS science activities are also initiated by the Cooperative Research Unit and USGS centers outside Alaska. In the last 5 years, USGS research in Alaska has produced many scientific benefits resulting from more than 900 publications. Publications relevant to Alaska can be conveniently searched by keyword through the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.usgs.gov/.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2025

Technical note: A low-cost approach to monitoring relative streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams using time lapse imagery and a deep learning model

Despite their ubiquity and importance as freshwater habitat, small headwater streams are under-monitored by existing stream gage networks. To address this gap, we describe a low-cost, non-contact, and low-effort method that enables organizations to monitor relative streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams. The method uses a camera to capture repeat images of the stream from a fixed position. A person then annotates pairs of images, in each case indicating which image has more apparent streamflow or indicating equal flow if no difference is discernible. A deep learning modeling framework called streamflow rank estimation (SRE) is then trained on the annotated image pairs and applied to rank all images from highest to lowest apparent streamflow. From this result a relative hydrograph can be derived. We found that our modeled relative hydrograph dynamics matched the observed hydrograph dynamics well for 11 cameras at 8 streamflow sites in western Massachusetts. Higher performance was observed during the annotation period (median Kendall's Tau rank correlation of 0.75, with a range of 0.6–0.83) than after it (median Kendall's Tau of 0.59, with range 0.34–0.74). We found that annotation performance was generally consistent across the 11 camera sites and 2 individual annotators and was positively correlated with streamflow variability at a site. A scaling simulation determined that model performance improvements were limited after 1000 annotation pairs. Our model's estimates of relative flow, while not equivalent to absolute flow, may still be useful for many applications, such as ecological modeling and calculating event-based hydrological statistics (e.g., the number of out-of-bank floods). We anticipate that this method will be a valuable tool to extend existing stream monitoring networks and provide new insights on dynamic headwater systems.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2007

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Implementation of the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP Collection 1.0 annual land surface change product

The increasing availability of high-quality remote sensing data and advanced technologies have spurred land cover mapping to characterize land change from local to global scales. However, most land change datasets either span multiple decades at a local scale or cover limited time over a larger geographic extent. Here, we present a new land cover and land surface change dataset created by the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) program over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The LCMAP land cover change dataset consists of annual land cover and land cover change products over the period 1985-2017 at 30-meter resolution using Landsat and other ancillary data via the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. In this paper, we describe our novel approach to implement the CCDC algorithm to produce the LCMAP product suite composed of five land cover and five land surface change related products. The LCMAP land cover products were validated using a collection of ~ 25,000 reference samples collected independently across CONUS. The overall agreement for all years of the LCMAP primary land cover product reached 82.5%. The LCMAP products are produced through the LCMAP Information Warehouse and Data Store (IW+DS) and Shared Mesos Cluster systems that can process, store, and deliver all datasets for public access. To our knowledge, this is the first set of published 30m annual land cover and land cover change datasets that span from the 1980s to the present for the United States. The LCMAP product suite provides useful information for land resource management and facilitates studies to improve the understanding of terrestrial ecosystems and the complex dynamics of the Earth system. The LCMAP system could be implemented to produce global land change products in the future.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2018

Patterns, pace and processes of water-quality variability: Examples from a long-studied estuary

Environmental time series have rich information content that is invaluable for measuring and understanding changes over time and guiding policies to manage change. I extracted information from measurements of 10 water‐quality constituents in upper San Francisco Bay from 1975 to 2016, one of the longest observational records in a U.S. estuary. Changes were detected at every time scale captured by monthly sampling. Long‐term trends included increased ammonium (+53%), nitrate + nitrate (+50%), silicate (+14%), Secchi depth (+42%), and decreased chlorophyll a (Chl a ) (−74%) and suspended particulate matter (−45%). Changes at the decadal scale included abrupt shifts (Chl a , nitrate + nitrite) and oscillations between shorter trends of increase and decrease (Secchi depth, phosphate). Long‐term trends were not expressed equally across all seasons, and seasonal patterns of change varied across constituents. These examples illustrate key features of environmental variability at the land–sea interface: (1) water‐quality components change continually at time scales from months to decades; (2) patterns of seasonal, multiyear, and multidecadal change are complex and vary across constituents; (3) primary drivers of change are freshwater inflow, the master regulator of estuarine dynamics, and human activities such as river damming, water diversions, wastewater discharge, environmental policies, and species introductions; (4) extracting the full information content of time series requires multiple analyses, each revealing a different layer of insight into how changes develop over time; (5) water‐quality variability is nonstationary, so future changes cannot be forecast reliably; (6) repeated observation is an essential method of Earth system science with applications in the design and performance measures of environmental policies.

California↗
USGS2020

A newly emerging thermal area in Yellowstone

Yellowstone is a large restless caldera that contains many dynamic thermal areas that are the surface expression of the deeper magmatic system. In 2018, using a Landsat 8 nighttime thermal infrared image, we discovered the emergence of a new thermal area located near Tern Lake on the northeast margin of the Sour Creek dome. A high-spatial-resolution airborne visible image from August 2017 revealed a large (~33,000 m2) area of recently fallen trees, mostly devoid of vegetation, with bright soil, similar to other nearby thermal areas. Field observations in August 2019 confirmed that this was a steam-heated acid-sulfate thermal area, with an arc-shaped zone of hydrothermally altered soil and heated ground, with surface temperatures of 60-80 °C, several steaming fumaroles, and boiling temperatures (93 °C) just beneath the surface. Fallen trees in contact with warm ground were being carbonized, yet there were some cooler areas with new trees growing. Observations of stressed or dying vegetation from archived satellite and airborne remote sensing data going back to 1994 indicated that this thermal area started emerging around 2000. It increased in size slowly until around 2005, when the radiative heat output started measurably increasing. From 2005 to 2012 it grew more rapidly; and from 2012 through 2019 the growth rate slowed and the heat output stabilized. We predict that this stabilizing trend will continue in the coming years. The initial formation of this new thermal area was not clearly linked to any distinct seismic or geodetic events, although the period of rapid growth partly coincided with a period of rapid local uplift, possibly suggesting a causative relationship. The identification of this emerging thermal area illustrates the importance of satellite thermal infrared imaging combined with high-spatial-resolution remote sensing data and field observations for mapping, measuring, and monitoring Yellowstone's thermal areas. It is also an example of the dynamics we expect to observe within large caldera systems like Yellowstone, where changes in the size and distribution of thermal areas are normal and do not indicate an impending eruption nor any significant changes in the broader magmatic system.

Wyoming↗
USGS2005

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular↗
USGS2007

Terrestrial remote sensing science and algorithms planned for EOS/MODIS

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be the primary daily global monitoring sensor on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, scheduled for launch on the EOS-AM platform in June 1998 and the EOS-PM platform in December 2000. MODIS is a 36 channel radiometer covering 0·415-14·235 μm wavelengths, with spatial resolution from 250 m to 1 km at nadir. MODIS will be the primary EOS sensor for providing data on terrestrial biospheric dynamics and process activity. This paper presents the suite of global land products currently planned for EOSDIS implementation, to be developed by the authors of this paper, the MODIS land team (MODLAND). These include spectral albedo, land cover, spectral vegetation indices, snow and ice cover, surface temperature and fire, and a number of biophysical variables that will allow computation of global carbon cycles, hydrologic balances and biogeochemistry of critical greenhouse gases. Additionally, the regular global coverage of these variables will allow accurate surface change detection, a fundamental determinant of global change.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗