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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The effects of climate-change-induced drought and freshwater wetlands

Drought cycles in wetlands may become more frequent and severe in the future, with consequences for wetland distribution and function. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, 2012. Online: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf, climate-change is likely to affect precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns so that the world’s wetlands may have more frequent episodes of extreme flooding and drought. This chapter contributes to a worldwide view of how wetland processes may be affected by these predicted changes in climate. Specifically, the occurrence of drought may increase, and that increase may affect the critical processes that sustain biodiversity in wetlands. We include specific examples that explore the effects of drought and other climate-change factors on wetland function in various parts of the world. In a concluding section we discuss management strategies for climate-change in wetlands. The synthesis of information in this chapter will contribute to a better understanding of how climate-change-induced drought may affect the function and distribution of wetlands in the future.

Book chapter

Water security - Nation state and international security implications

A terrorist attack such as poisoning and sabotage of the national water supply and water-quality infrastructure of the continental United States or any country, could disrupt the delivery of vital human services, threaten both public health and the environment, potentially cause mass casualties and pose grave public concern for homeland security. Most significantly, an attack on water resources would weaken social cohesion and trust in government. A threat to continuity of services is a potential threat to continuity of government since both are necessary for continuity of operations. Water infrastructure is difficult to protect, as it extends over vast areas across the U.S. and for which ownership is overwhelmingly nonfederal (approximately 85 percent). Since the 9111 attacks, federal dam operators and water and wastewater utilities have established counter measures. Similar measures have been taken in countries around the world. These include enhanced physical security, improved coordination between corporate ownership, Department of Homeland Security, and local law enforcement, and research into risk assessment and vulnerability analysis to ensure greater system safety. A key issue is the proportionate additional resources directed at public and private sector specific priorities. Agencies that have the scientific and technological ability to leverage resources, exploit integrated science approaches, focus on interdisciplinary practices, utilize informatics expertise and employ a wide use of evolving technologies should play a key role in water security and related issues.

Disaster Advances

Seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery

Rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance is important for emergency responses and rehabilitation by providing accurate and timely information about secondary hazards and impacts, including landslide, liquefaction, and building damage. Despite the extensive collection of geospatial data and satellite images, existing physics-based and data-driven methods suffer from low estimation performance due to the complex and event-specific causal dependencies underlying the cascading processes of earthquake-triggered hazards and impacts. Herein, we present a rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system that leverages advanced statistical causal inference and remote sensing techniques. The unique feature of this system is that it provides accurate and high-resolution estimations on a regional scale by jointly inferring multiple hazards and building damage from satellite images through modeling their causal dependencies. We evaluate our system on multiple seismic events from diverse countries around the globe. Our results corroborate that incorporating causal dependencies significantly improves large-scale estimation accuracy for multiple hazards and impacts compared to existing systems. The results also reveal quantitative causal mechanisms among earthquake-triggered multi-hazard and impact for multiple seismic events. Our system establishes a new way to extract and utilize the complex interactions of multiple hazards and impacts for effective disaster responses and advancing understanding of seismic geological processes.

Nature Communications

Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

U.S. Geological Survey 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption response in Hawai'i—After-action review

The 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption lasted 107 days, and now ranks as the most destructive event at Kilauea since 1790, and as one of the most costly volcanic disasters in U.S. history. Multiple simultaneous hazard events unfolded, including sustained seismic activity leading to collapse at the summit of Halema'uma'u crater and severe damage to the HVO facility, with additional eruption of lava in the Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone that progressively grew to a total of 24 fissure openings. In response to the complex and uncertain nature of the eruption, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team activities tended to coalesce around several interrelated core functional areas: science operations, emergency management and administration, and external communications. Upon cessation of the eruption, the USGS Hazard Response Executive Committee charged the Alaska Regional Office to lead an After-Action Review team, which focused on two basic questions: (1) what went well, and why?; and (2) what can be improved, and how? The purpose of the After-Action Review is to identify priorities for programmatic or policy improvements that the USGS can feasibly implement to advance strategic preparation for future disasters, and thereby reduce public vulnerabilities. Specifically, the review is intended to help USGS respond even better to the next eruption in Hawai'i or elsewhere by advancing any of the following goals: Design better planning scenarios; Enhance response team effectiveness; Assist local decision makers; Promote new areas of strategic research; and Streamline administrative, finance, and Incident Management Team support functions during a crisis to secure continuity of operations and essential records management.

Hawaii

Don't forget about the Christchurch earthquake: Lessons learned from this disaster

In the aftermath of the devastating magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck the Tohoku region of Japan on March 11, attention quickly turned away from a much smaller, but also highly destructive earthquake that struck the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, just a few weeks earlier, on Feb. 22. Both events are stark reminders of human vulnerability to natural disasters and provide a harsh reality check: Even technologically advanced countries with modern building codes are not immune from earthquake disasters. The Christchurch earthquake carried an additional message: Urban devastation can be triggered even by moderate-sized earthquakes.

Christchurch

ASTER satellite observations for international disaster management

When lives are threatened or lost due to catastrophic disasters, and when massive financial impacts are experienced, international emergency response teams rapidly mobilize to provide urgently required support. Satellite observations of affected areas often provide essential insight into the magnitude and details of the impacts. The large cost and high complexity of developing and operating satellite flight and ground systems encourages international collaboration in acquiring imagery for such significant global events in order to speed delivery of critical information to help those affected, and optimize spectral, spatial, and temporal coverage of the areas of interest. The International Charter-Space and Major Disasters was established to enable such collaboration in sensor tasking during times of crisis and is often activated in response to calls for assistance from authorized users. Insight is provided from a U.S. perspective into sensor support for Charter activations and other disaster events through a description of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), which has been used to support emergency situations for over a decade through its expedited tasking and near real-time data delivery capabilities. Examples of successes achieved and challenges encountered in international collaboration to develop related systems and fulfill tasking requests suggest operational considerations for new missions as well as areas for future enhancements.

Proceedings of IEEE

Drought early warning and forecasting

Drought risk management involves three pillars: drought early warning, drought vulnerability and risk assessment, and drought preparedness, mitigation, and response. This book collects in one place a description of all the key components of the first pillar, and describes strategies for fitting these pieces together. The best modern drought early warning systems incorporate and integrate a broad array of environmental information sources: weather station observations, satellite imagery, land surface and crop model simulations, and weather and climate model forecasts, and analyze this information in context-relevant ways that take into account exposure and vulnerability. Drought Early Warning and Forecasting: Theory and Practice assembles a comprehensive overview of these components, providing examples drawn from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United States Drought Monitor. This book simultaneously addresses the physical, social, and information management aspects of drought early warning, and informs readers about the tools, techniques, and conceptual models required to effectively identify, predict, and communicate potential drought-related disasters. This book is a key text for postgraduate scientists and graduate and advanced undergraduate students in hydrology, geography, earth sciences, meteorology, climatology, and environmental sciences programs. Professionals dealing with disaster management and drought forecasting will also find this book beneficial to their work.

Book

Reducing volcanic risk; are we winning some battles but losing the war?

Historically, significant advances in volcanology have been catalyzed by volcanic disasters or crises, reflecting the the simple fact that volcanoes seem to receive serious scientific and public attention only when they cause, or threaten to cause, trouble. For example, three deadly eruptions in 1902, Mount Pelee, Santa Maria, and Soufriere (St.Vincent), spurred the movement to establish permanent volcano observatories there. Profoundly impresses by the devastation cused by Mont Pelee, Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr. founded the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) in 1912. Since then, studies conducted at HVO and new observatories have been pivotal in transforming the nascent science of volcanology into the multidisciplinary science that it is today.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Annals of Geophysics

Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: progress and problems

At the beginning of the twentieth century, volcanology began to emerge as a modern science as a result of increased interest in eruptive phenomena following some of the worst volcanic disasters in recorded history: Krakatau (Indonesia) in 1883 and Mont Pelée (Martinique), Soufrière (St. Vincent), and Santa María (Guatemala) in 1902. Volcanology is again experiencing a period of heightened public awareness and scientific growth in the 1980s, the worst period since 1902 in terms of volcanic disasters and crises. A review of hazards mitigation approaches and techniques indicates that significant advances have been made in hazards assessment, volcano monitoring, and eruption forecasting. For example, the remarkable accuracy of the predictions of dome-building events at Mount St. Helens since June 1980 is unprecedented. Yet a predictive capability for more voluminous and explosive eruptions still has not been achieved. Studies of magma-induced seismicity and ground deformation continue to provide the most systematic and reliable data for early detection of precursors to eruptions and shallow intrusions. In addition, some other geophysical monitoring techniques and geochemical methods have been refined and are being more widely applied and tested. Comparison of the four major volcanic disasters of the 1980s (Mount St. Helens, U.S.A. (1980), El Chichón, Mexico (1982); Galunggung, Indonesia (1982); and Nevado del Ruíz, Colombia (1985) illustrates the importance of predisaster geoscience studies, volcanic hazards assessments, volcano monitoring, contingency planning, and effective communications between scientists and authorities. The death toll (>22,000) from the Ruíz catastrophe probably could have been greatly reduced; the reasons for the tragically ineffective implementation of evacuation measures are still unclear and puzzling in view of the fact that sufficient warnings were given. The most pressing problem in the mitigation of volcanic and associated hazards on a global scale is that most of the world's dangerous volcanoes are in densely populated countries that lack the economic and scientific resources or the political will to adequately study and monitor them. This problem afflicts both developed and developing countries, but it is especially acute for the latter. The greatest advances in volcanic hazards mitigation in the near future are most likely to be achieved by wider application of existing technology to poorly understood and studied volcanoes, rather than by refinements or new discoveries in technology alone.

Reviews of Geophysics

1976 Big Thompson flood, Colorado — Thirty years later

In the early evening of Saturday, July 31, 1976, a large stationary thunderstorm released as much as 7.5 inches of rainfall in about an hour (about 12 inches in a few hours) in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin and to a lesser extent in parts of the Cache la Poudre River Basin. In steep mountain terrain with thin or no soil, this large amount of rainfall in such a short period of time produced a flash flood that caught residents and tourists by surprise. The sudden flood that churned down the narrow Big Thompson Canyon scoured the river channel that night, caused over $35 million in damages (1977 dollars) to 418 homes and businesses, many mobile homes, 438 automobiles, numerous bridges, paved and unpaved roads, power and telephone lines, and many other structures. The tragedy claimed the lives of 144 people, including two law enforcement officers trying to evacuate people in danger, and there were 250 reported injuries. Scores of other people narrowly escaped with their lives. More than 800 people were evacuated by helicopter the following morning. This fact sheet presents a summary of the hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, describes some of the advances in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and provides a reminder that extreme floods like the 1976 Big Thompson flood have occurred in other locations in Colorado in the past and will occur again.

Colorado

U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi River Science Forum—Summary of data and science needs and next steps

The U.S. Geological Survey hosted a Mississippi River Science Forum with Federal agencies; Tribal, State, and local governments located in States that border the Mississippi River; academia; and other interested stakeholders. The purpose of the forum was to share current (2023) science; identify data gaps and areas of concern; and to prioritize next steps needed to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters along the Mississippi River. The forum was a directive for the U.S. Geological Survey in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 (Public Law 117—103, 136 Stat. 49). Participants and stakeholders that attended the Mississippi River Science Forum indicated the following. A Mississippi River Science Committee could bring together the voices of all stakeholders, including Federal agencies; State, local, and Tribal governments; academia; nongovernmental organizations; business and industry; and other interested parties. This committee would also work with (but not replace) Mississippi River Basin entities already in place and establish effective communication to identify and address Basin-wide management needs and to develop holistic solutions for those needs. A Mississippi River science plan could expand on the science and data gaps identified by the Forum. This plan could guide data collection and help resource managers develop and implement restoration initiatives within the Basin, recognizing that addressing these needs will require substantial resources. The science committee, working with other entities in the basin, should develop data standards for the Mississippi River Basin that allow stakeholders to utilize comparable data to address their needs. These standards would include data findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability. This report highlights data gaps and areas of concern discussed during the forum, and it identifies needs to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters with specific emphasis on data collection and measurement, and scientific investigation. The report also summarizes stakeholder input and feedback and outlines next steps identified by forum participants.

Open-File Report

Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters

Landslides have the incredible power to transform landscapes and also, tragically, to cause disastrous societal impacts. Whereas the mechanics and effects of many landslide disasters have been analyzed in detail, the means by which landslide experts respond to these events has garnered much less attention. Herein, we evaluate nine landslide response case histories conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey over the past two decades and summarize the event history, the response conducted, and the lessons learned from each event. We group the responses into three categories—providing event context from past events, addressing ongoing hazards, and acquiring data for the future—and present the nine case studies accordingly. We also summarize the progress in landslide response that has been made over the past two decades, including insights and advancements on the preparation for such events, the use of new technologies, and the importance of clear communication between all parties during disasters. We believe that exchanging and sharing experiences such as these will promote more clear and successful approaches for responses to landslide disasters in the future.

Book chapter

ASTER and USGS EROS emergency imaging for hurricane disasters

Satellite images have been extremely useful in a variety of emergency response activities, including hurricane disasters. This article discusses the collaborative efforts of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Joint United States-Japan Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Science Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in responding to crisis situations by tasking the ASTER instrument and rapidly providing information to initial responders. Insight is provided on the characteristics of the ASTER systems, and specific details are presented regarding Hurricane Katrina support.

Circular

Remote rainfall sensing for landslide hazard analysis

Methods of assessing landslide hazards and providing warnings are becoming more advanced as remote sensing of rainfall provides more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Two recent landslide disasters are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. For the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia, USA, National Weather Service WSR-88D Doppler radar provided rainfall estimates based on a relation between cloud reflectivity and moisture content on a 1 sq. km. resolution every 6 minutes. Ground-based measurements of rainfall intensity and precipitation total, in addition to landslide timing and distribution, were compared with the radar-derived rainfall data. For the December 14-16, 1999, storm in Vargas State, Venezuela, infrared sensing from the GOES-8 satellite of cloud top temperatures provided the basis for NOAA/NESDIS rainfall estimates on a 16 sq. km. resolution every 30 minutes. These rainfall estimates were also compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and landslide distribution. In both examples, the remotely sensed data either overestimated or underestimated ground-based values by up to a factor of 2. The factors that influenced the accuracy of rainfall data include spatial registration and map projection, as well as prevailing wind direction, cloud orientation, and topography.

Open-File Report

The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program—Helping to save lives worldwide for more than 30 years

What do you do when a sleeping volcano roars back to life? For more than three decades, countries around the world have called upon the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) to contribute expertise and equipment in times of crisis. Co-funded by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), VDAP has evolved and grown over the years, adding newly developed monitoring technologies, training and exchange programs, and eruption forecasting methodologies to greatly expand global capabilities that mitigate the impacts of volcanic hazards. These advances, in turn, strengthen the ability of the United States to respond to its own volcanic events. VDAP was formed in 1986 in response to the devastating volcanic mudflow triggered by an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia. The mudflow destroyed the city of Armero on the night of November 13, 1985, killing more than 25,000 people in the city and surrounding areas. Sadly, the tragedy was avoidable. Better education of the local population and clear communication between scientists and public officials could have allowed warnings to be received, understood, and acted upon prior to the disaster. VDAP strives to ensure that such a tragedy will never happen again. The program’s mission is to assist foreign partners, at their request, in volcano monitoring and empower them to take the lead in mitigating hazards at their country’s threatening volcanoes. Since 1986, team members have responded to over 70 major volcanic crises at more than 50 volcanoes and have strengthened response capacity in 12 countries. The VDAP team consists of approximately 20 geologists, geophysicists, and engineers, who are based out of the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Washington. In 2016, VDAP was a finalist for the Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medal for its work in improving volcano readiness and warning systems worldwide, helping countries to forecast eruptions, save lives, and reduce economic losses while enhancing America’s ability to respond to domestic volcanic events.

Fact Sheet