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USGS2025

Risks and rewards of pre-emergent herbicide (indaziflam) to defend core sagebrush-steppe ecosystems under suboptimal precipitation

Protection of intact habitat from the spread of invasive plants is a global priority, especially where invaders alter wildfire occurrence. Invasion of perennial sagebrush-steppe ecosystems by cheatgrass and other fire-promoting exotic annual grasses (EAGs) is one of the most notorious examples of this problem. Protection and expansion of the remaining intact “core” sagebrush areas are key management goals, and whether this can be accomplished by temporarily inhibiting annual plant populations with pre-emergent herbicides is a key question. We applied indaziflam in fall 2019 to replicate plots within two sagebrush-steppe sites in the Northern Great Basin, USA: 1) a relatively intact, uninvaded, unburned “core” site and 2) a partially invaded site that burned in the 2015 Soda Wildfire. Vegetation cover, density, and growth responses of native perennials were measured annually to 2024. We asked whether our treatments “defended” and “grew” core sagebrush areas. EAG cover remained <15% in indaziflam-treated plots while increasing to >30% in control plots by the fifth year after treatment at the unburned site but did not differ with treatment at the burned site. Native perennial grasses, forbs, and big sagebrush cover and growth did not differ with indaziflam treatment at either site. Moss cover was temporarily lower in indaziflam-treated plots at the unburned site, and cover of a native annual forb was significantly lower in indaziflam-treated plots throughout the study across both sites. Despite posttreatment drought and apparent patchiness in treatment implementation, our treatments “defended the core” by preventing crossing of the 20% EAG invasion threshold in the unburned site but not did not “grow the core.” Our results provide an example of a case in which proactive protection may be easier to accomplish than reactive restoration. Herbicide treatment effects may be sensitive to weather and application details. Implementation monitoring could help explain variability and improve success.

Idaho↗

USGS2000

Do male breeding displays function to attract mates or defend territories? The explanatory role of mate and site fidelity

Many shorebirds show elaborate breeding displays that include aerial flights and ground displays accompanied by song. The mate attraction hypothesis suggests that breeding displays function to attract mates and maintain pair bonds, whereas the territory defense hypothesis suggests breeding displays function in defining and defending nesting and feeding territories. We tested these hypotheses in the Western Sandpiper ( Calidris mauri ) by contrasting the duration and level of male breeding displays among pairs that differed in their mate and site fidelity. As predicted by the mate attraction hypothesis, males performed the highest number of song sequences during pair formation, and males paired with their mate of a prior year sang less than males paired to new mates. Further, sitefaithful males mated to a new but experienced mate displayed significantly more than remated males or males new to the area. This suggests a male's prior familiarity with an area and his neighbors does not lessen his display rate as was predicted under the territory defense hypothesis. Limited support for the territory defense hypothesis came from observations of males performing breeding displays with neighboring males along nest territory boundaries. This behavior was short-lived, however, as males abandoned nesting areas after pair-formation and used adjacent or disjointed feeding areas during egg-laying and incubation. Male aggression (i.e., aerial and ground chases), as opposed to breeding displays, appeared to be the principal means of maintaining territory boundaries. Indeed, the rate at which males chased other males remained fairly constant and high throughout the breeding season. Male chasing behavior may also serve as a paternity guard to protect against extra-pair copulations. Our study also found that a female's prior breeding experience in an area correlated with a reduced display rate by her mate, particularly if that mate was new to the area. This indicates female characteristics may not only drive nest initiation, as has been shown in other studies, but are important in determining the duration and extent of male display.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Nest defense- Grassland bird responses to snakes

Predation is the primary source of nest mortality for most passerines; thus, behaviors to reduce the impacts of predation are frequently quantified to study learning, adaptation, and coevolution among predator and prey species. Video surveillance of nests has made it possible to examine real-time parental nest defense. During 1999-2009, we used video camera systems to monitor 518 nests of grassland birds. We reviewed video of 48 visits by snakes to 34 nests; 37 of these visits resulted in predation of active nests. When adult birds encountered snakes at the nest (n = 33 visits), 76% of the encounters resulted in a form of nest defense (nonaggressive or aggressive); in 47% of the encounters, birds physically struck snakes. When defending nests, most birds pecked at the snakes; Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) and Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) pecked most frequently in anyone encounter. Also, two Eastern Meadowlarks ran around snakes, frequently with wings spread, and three Bobolinks struck at snakes from the air. Nest defense rarely appeared to alter snake behavior; the contents of seven nests defended aggressively and two nests defended nonaggressively were partially depredated, whereas the contents of six nests defended each way were consumed completely. One fledgling was produced at each of three nests that had been aggressively defended. During aggressive defense, one snake appeared to be driven away and one was wounded. Our findings should be a useful starting point for further research. For example, future researchers may be able to determine whether the behavioral variation we observed in nest defense reflects species differences, anatomic or phylogenetic constraints, or individual differences related to a bird's prior experience. There appears to be much potential for studying nest defense behavior using video recording of both real and simulated encounters.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS1987

Is courtship intensity a signal of male parental care in Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus)?

We studied Red-winged Blackbird ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) behavior in marsh and prairie habitats to determine whether courting males provide cues of their nest defense, whether females prefer males that defend nests vigorously, and whether male nest defense affects nest success. We found no evidence that courtship behavior provides cues of male nest defense, or that females prefer males that court intensely. We found evidence that females nesting in marshes prefer males that defend nests intensely, but no evidence that intensely defending males in the prairie habitat achieve high nest success. We found differences, however, between marsh and prairie habitats that suggest a coarse-grained relationship between male parental quality and female choice of mate in this species.

The Auk↗

USGS2013

Can antibrowsing defense regulate the spread of woody vegetation in arctic tundra?

Global climate warming is projected to promote the increase of woody plants, especially shrubs, in arctic tundra. Many factors may affect the extent of this increase, including browsing by mammals. We hypothesize that across the Arctic the effect of browsing will vary because of regional variation in antibrowsing chemical defense. Using birch ( Betula ) as a case study, we propose that browsing is unlikely to retard birch expansion in the region extending eastward from the Lena River in central Siberia across Beringia and the continental tundra of central and eastern Canada where the more effectively defended resin birches predominate. Browsing is more likely to retard birch expansion in tundra west of the Lena to Fennoscandia, Iceland, Greenland and South Baffin Island where the less effectively defended non-resin birches predominate. Evidence from the literature supports this hypothesis. We further suggest that the effect of warming on the supply of plant-available nitrogen will not significantly change either this pan-Arctic pattern of variation in antibrowsing defense or the resultant effect that browsing has on birch expansion in tundra. However, within central and east Beringia warming-caused increases in plant-available nitrogen combined with wildfire could initiate amplifying feedback loops that could accelerate shrubification of tundra by the more effectively defended resin birches. This accelerated shrubification of tundra by resin birch, if extensive, could reduce the food supply of caribou causing population declines. We conclude with a brief discussion of modeling methods that show promise in projecting invasion of tundra by woody plants.

Ecography↗

USGS1996

Loess studies in central United States: Evolution of concepts

Few words in the realm of earth science have caused more debate than "loess". It is a common term that was first used as a name of a silt deposit before it was defined in a scientific sense. Because this "loose" deposit is easily distinguished from other more coherent deposits, it was recognized as a matter of practical concern and later became the object of much scientific scrutiny. Loess was first recognized along the Rhine Valley in Germany in the 1830s and was first noted in the United States in 1846 along the lower Mississippi River where it later became the center of attention. The use of the name eventually spread around the world, but its use has not been consistently applied. Over the years some interpretations and stratigraphic correlations have been validated, but others have been hotly contested on conceptual grounds and semantic issues. The concept of loess evolved into a complex issue as loess and loess-like deposits were discovered in different parts of the US. The evolution of concepts in the central US developed in four indefinite stages: the eras of (1) discovery and development of hypotheses, (2) conditional acceptance of the eolian origin of loess, (3) "bandwagon" popularity of loess research, and (4) analytical inquiry on the nature of loess. Toward the end of the first era around 1900, the popular opinion on the meaning of the term loess shifted from a lithological sense of loose silt to a lithogenetic sense of eolian silt. However, the dual use of the term fostered a lingering skepticism during the second era that ended in 1944 with an explosion of interest that lasted for more than a decade. In 1944, R.J. Russell proposed and H.N. Fisk defended a new non-eolian, property-based, concept of loess. The eolian advocates reacted with surprise and enthusiasm. Each side used constrained arguments to show their view of the problem, but did not examine the fundamental problem, which was not in the proofs of their hypothesis, but in the definition of the term. Between 1944 and about 1950, the debates about loess reached a maximum level of complexity. The main semantic problem was submersed in peripheral arguments about physical properties and genetic interpretations. The scholarly treatment of the subject by Fisk and Russell stimulated quality responses from a diversity of earth scientists interested in academic and applied studies, particularly geo-history, pedology, soil mechanics and stratigraphy. The long-lasting popularity of loess studies during the bandwagon era lasted to about 1970. By that time, the analytical and technical interests had attracted the mainstream into the fourth era with a focus beyond the old arguments. Although Fisk and Russell found themselves defending an unpopular theory, they stimulated a scientific interest in the late Quaternary history of the Mississippi Valley that may never be exceeded.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2008

Brood amalgamation in the Bristle-thighed Curlew Numenius tahitiensis : process and function

Alloparental care in birds generally involves nonbreeding adults that help at nests or breeding adults that help raise young in communal nests. A less often reported form involves the amalgamation of broods, where one or more adults care for young that are not their own. We observed this phenomenon among Bristle-thighed Curlew Numenius tahitiensis broods in western Alaska during 1990–1992. Amalgamation of broods generally involved the formation of temporary and extended associations. Temporary associations were formed by the incidental convergence of broods soon after they left their nests. During this period, parents defended distinct brood-rearing areas, were antagonistic to conspecifics and remained together for less than 3 days. Extended associations formed when chicks were 1–2 weeks old. Here, parents and their broods occupied distinct, but adjacent, brood-rearing areas and moved around as a unit. Whether a brood participated in either temporary or extended associations or remained solitary appeared to depend on brood density in the immediate area and on hatching date. When chicks were 3–4 weeks old, aggregations of up to ten broods formed wherein young mixed and parents defended a common brood-rearing area. All broods (n = 48) that survived to fledging joined such aggregations. Alloparental care involved only antipredator defence and was not associated with activities such as feeding and brooding. Most female parents abandoned their broods shortly after the young could fly and when aggregations were forming. The female parent of a pair always deserted its young before or on the same day as the male parent and, in every aggregation, one or two males continued to tend young for about 5 days longer than other male parents. In most cases, adults deserted the young 2–6 days before the young departed the area when about 38 days old. Bristle-thighed Curlews also formed temporary associations with American and Pacific Golden Plover Pluvialis dominica and Pluvialis fulva, Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus, Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica, Western Sandpiper Cal-idris mauri and Long-tailed Skua Stercorarius longicaudus. Curlews and other larger bodied species commonly attack-mobbed predators together, whereas smaller bodied species generally gave alarm calls and circled the predators. For all species, the intensity of antipredator defence by attending adults gradually decreased as young became older and aggregations formed. We suggest that amalgamation of broods among Bristle-thighed Curlew enhances predator defence, aids in the process of flock formation for migrating young, and allows females and some males to desert their young earlier.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Differential wolf-pack-size persistence and the role of risk when hunting dangerous prey

Risk to predators hunting dangerous prey is an emerging area of research and could account for possible persistent differences in gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) pack sizes. We documented significant differences in long-term wolf-pack-size averages and variation in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Denali National Park and Preserve, Yellowstone National Park, and Yukon, Canada (p<0.01). The SNF differences could be related to the wolves’ risk when hunting primary prey, for those packs (N=3) hunting moose ( Alces americanus ) were significantly larger than those (N=10) hunting white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) (F1,8=16.50, p=0.004). Our data support the hypothesis that differential pack-size persistence may be perpetuated by differences in primary prey riskiness to wolves, and we highlight two important extensions of this idea: (1) the potential for wolves to provision and defend injured packmates from other wolves and (2) the importance of less-risky, buffer prey to pack-size persistence and year-to-year variation. Risk to predators hunting dangerous prey is an emerging area of research and could account for possible persistent differences in gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) pack sizes. We documented significant differences in long-term wolf-pack-size averages and variation in the Superior National Forest (SNF), Denali National Park and Preserve, Yellowstone National Park, and Yukon, Canada (p<0.01). The SNF differences could be related to the wolves’ risk when hunting primary prey, for those packs (N=3) hunting moose ( Alces americanus ) were significantly larger than those (N=10) hunting white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) (F1,8=16.50, p=0.004). Our data support the hypothesis that differential pack-size persistence may be perpetuated by differences in primary prey riskiness to wolves, and we highlight two important extensions of this idea: (1) the potential for wolves to provision and defend injured packmates from other wolves and (2) the importance of less-risky, buffer prey to pack-size persistence and year-to-year variation.

Behaviour↗

USGS2017

The role of density-dependent and –independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape

Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Home range and territoriality of two Hawaiian honeycreepers, the 'Akohekohe and Maui Parrotbill

Hawaiian honeycreepers have radiated into a diversity of trophic niches and patterns of space-use. We investigated space-use in two honeycreeper species, the ‘Ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ), an endangered nectarivore, and Maui Parrotbill ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ), an endangered wood excavator, by mapping the home ranges and dispersion of color-banded individuals at a study site in relatively undisturbed montane cloud forest on Maui Island, Hawai‘i. With 20% of outlying points excluded, home-range size averaged much smaller for adult male ‘Ākohekohe (0.56 ha) than for male Maui Parrotbill (2.26 ha). In both species, a female's home range mostly overlapped that of her mate. Adult male Maui Parrotbill defended year-round home ranges from which they excluded conspecifics except for their mates and dependent offspring. Although our data suggest that ‘Ākohekohe also maintained all-purpose territories, the evidence is less convincing because these birds were seen feeding in the home ranges of other individuals. By defending all-purpose territories, these two species depart from the more common honeycreeper pattern of sharing large, undefended home ranges.

Condor↗

USGS2019

Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla) survival and site fidelity in an area undergoing shale gas development

We quantified Louisiana Waterthrush ( Parkesia motacilla ) site fidelity and apparent survival across a 6 year period in an area undergoing shale gas development.Waterthrush initially exhibited high site fidelity that declined over time. At the same time, the number of unpaired males defending territories increased as did natal fidelity. We identified site fidelity factors that influenced if adult males and females returned. More males returned either due to or regardless of amount of shale gas disturbance and lower riparian habitat quality. Females were less likely to return with increased number of breeding attempts. Females in shale gas disturbed areas had a higher number of breeding attempts and lower individual productivity. We saw a general nonsignificant trend in declining apparent survival over time. Overall apparent survival estimates for adult males (0.56) and females (0.44) were similar to those reported for other populations. Apparent survival candidate models suggested weak, positive relationships of increased survival with shale gas territory disturbance, disturbance with year, and year for adult males, and a positive relationship of increased survival with hydraulic fracturing runoff for adult females although regression coefficients overlapped zero for all model-supported covariates implying no statistical significance. Since waterthrush can maintain pair bonds from the previous year and females must pick a nest site within the defended male's territory, there are potential conflicts between factors that influence adult survival and site fidelity that may affect long-term population persistence. Our study adds to previous evidence that shale gas disturbed areas may serve as sink habitats.

West Virginia↗

USGS2007

Dietary and spatial overlap between sympatric ursids relative to salmon use

We hypothesized that there would be minimal dietary overlap between sympatric brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) and American black bears ( U. americanus ) relative to salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) utilization when alternative foods (e.g., fruits) are abundant. To maximize the chance that we would reject this hypothesis, we examined the diets of brown and black bears known to have visited salmon streams. Species, sex, and individual identification of bears visiting salmon streams were determined by DNA analysis of hair and feces collected in 2002-2004 along those streams. Diets were estimated from fecal residues and stable isotope analyses of hair. Assimilated diets of brown bears were 66.0% (SD = 16.7%) salmon , 13.9% (SD = 7.5%) terrestrial animal matter, and 20.1% (SD = 17.2%) plant matter. Assimilated diets of black bears were 8.0% (SD = 5.4%) salmon , 8.4% (SD = 9.7%) terrestrial animal matter, and 83.6% (SD = 7.7%) plant matter. Male and female brown bears did not differ in either the proportion of dietary salmon, terrestrial animal matter, or plant matter. The relative amounts of fruit residues in the feces of brown bears (87.0%, SD = 15.2%) and black bears (91.8%, SD = 7.2%) did not differ. Both sexes of brown bears visited salmon streams and consumed significant amounts of salmon, but only male American black bears visited streams and then consumed minimal amounts of salmon. Thus, brown bears were largely carnivorous and black bears were largely herbivorous and frugivorous. This reduced dietary overlap relative to salmon and fruit use is understandable in light of the concentrated, defendable nature of salmon in small streams, the widely dispersed, non-defendable nature of abundant fruits, the dominance of brown over black bears, the higher energy requirement of the larger brown bear, and, therefore, the differing ability of the species to efficiently exploit different food resources.

Ursus↗

USGS2003

Patterns and sources of fecal coliform bacteria in three streams in Virginia, 1999-2000

Surface-water impairment by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the Commonwealth's 1998 303(d) list of impaired waters because of elevated concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria. These fecal coliform-impaired stream segments require the development of total maximum daily load (TMDL) and associated implementation plans, but accurate information on the sources contributing these bacteria usually is lacking. The development of defendable fecal coliform TMDLs and management plans can benefit from reliable information on the bacteria sources that are responsible for the impairment. Bacterial source tracking (BST) recently has emerged as a powerful tool for identifying the sources of fecal coliform bacteria that impair surface waters. In a demonstration of BST technology, three watersheds on Virginia's 1998 303(d) list with diverse land-use practices (and potentially diverse bacteria sources) were studied. Accotink Creek is dominated by urban land uses, Christians Creek by agricultural land uses, and Blacks Run is affected by both urban and agricultural land uses. During the 20-month field study (March 1999?October 2000), water samples were collected from each stream during a range of flow conditions and seasons. For each sample, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH, turbidity, flow, and water temperature were measured. Fecal coliform concentrations of each water sample were determined using the membrane filtration technique. Next, Escherichia coli (E. coli) were isolated from the fecal coliform bacteria and their sources were identified using ribotyping (a method of 'genetic fingerprinting'). Study results provide enhanced understanding of the concentrations and sources of fecal coliform bacteria in these three watersheds. Continuum sampling (sampling along the length of the streams) indicated that elevated concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria (maximum observed concentration of 290,000 colonies/100 milliliters (col/100mL) could occur along the entire length of each stream, and that the samples collected at the downstream monitoring station of each stream were generally representative of the entire upstream reach. Seasonal patterns were observed in the base-flow fecal coliform concentrations of all streams; concentrations were typically highest in the summer and lowest in the winter. Fecal coliform concentrations were lowest during periods of base flow (typically 200?2,000 col/100mL) and increased by 3?4 orders of magnitude during storm events (as high as 700,000 col/100mL). Multiple linear regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform concentrations as a function of streamflow and other water-quality parameters. The source tracking technique provided identification of bacteria contributions from diverse sources that included (but were not limited to) humans, cattle, poultry, horses, dogs, cats, geese, ducks, raccoons, and deer. Seasonal patterns were observed in the contributions of cattle and poultry sources. There were relations between the identified sources of fecal coliform bacteria and the land-use practices within each watershed. There were only minor differences in the distribution of bacteria sources between low-flow periods and high-flow periods. A coupled approach that utilized both a large available source library and a smaller, location-specific source library provided the most success in identifying the unknown E. coli isolates. BST data should provide valuable support and guidance for producing more defendable and scientifically rigorous watershed models. Incorporation of these bacteria-source data into watershed management strategies also should result in the selection of more efficient source-reduction scenarios for improving water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2003

Temporal and spatial stability of red-tailed hawk territories in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

We mapped Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) territories in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) of Puerto Rico in 1998. We combined our 1998 data with that collected during previous studies of Red-tailed Hawks in the LEF to examine population numbers and spatial stability of territorial boundaries over a 26-yr period. We also investigated potential relationships between Red-tailed Hawk territory sizes and topographic and climatic factors. Mean size of 16 defended territories during 1998 was 124.3 ?? 12.0 ha, which was not significantly different from our calculations of mean territory sizes derived from data collected in 1974 and 1984. Aspect and slope influenced territory size with the smallest territories having high slope and easterly aspects. Territory size was small compared to that reported for other parts of the species' range. In addition, there was remarkably little temporal change in the spatial distribution, area, and boundaries of Red-tailed Hawk territories among the study periods. Further, there was substantial boundary overlap (21-27%) between defended territories among the different study periods. The temporal stability of the spatial distribution of Red-tailed Hawk territories in the study area leads us to believe the area might be at or near saturation.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2014

Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches.

Report↗

USGS2020

Rockhopper Penguin–Imperial Cormorant mixed colonies in the Falkland Islands: A stroke of luck for late breeders

Mixed-species colonies occur frequently, especially among seabirds, and may provide mutual benefits among associated species including antipredator advantages. The “protector” species in such associations may provide early warning signals or by aggressively defending their own nests, may expel predators from the area. We explored costs and benefits to Rockhopper Penguins ( Eudyptes chrysocome ) in relation to offspring production in both monospecific colonies and those mixed with Imperial Cormorants ( Phalacrocorax atriceps ) at Saunders Island (Falkland Islands), emphasizing differences in predation pressure. We considered behavioral responses of chicks (in crèches), as well as differences in their nutritional condition, morphometric measurements, and survival compared among different breeding colonies. Our study revealed a paradox: High-quality adult penguins, those arriving early and occupying lower-elevation sites closer to the coast, produced better-nourished chicks earlier in the season. However, they averaged half the number of chicks fledged, compared to breeders that arrived later in the season. Late breeders were forced by unavailability of optimal habitat to nest in more elevated areas, forming mixed colonies with cormorants, which, in turn, provided them with protection from nest predators. This study provides an example of the role of luck in nature, and how it may compensate for differences in individual fitness.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2026

Finding the (small) cores: Spatial covariance tracks grassland bird community occupancy in fragmented grasslands

Grasslands are an imperiled ecosystem, and grassland bird abundance is declining across North America. One of the strongest drivers for these declines is woody plant encroachment of grasslands. In the Great Plains and Sagebrush biomes of North America, spatial covariance—a remote-sensing metric for tracking boundaries between vegetation types—is emerging as a new method to identify and strategize conservation of grassland cores in the face of woody plant encroachment. However, the relationship between spatial covariance and grassland bird community occupancy is unknown. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy models to understand how occupancy probability of six declining grassland species responded to spatial covariance at three scales (0.81, 7.29, and 65.61 ha) and tree cover in fragmented grasslands of Arkansas, USA. Model selection revealed that the smallest spatial scale (0.81 ha) best explained grassland bird occupancy. Tree cover alone was a poor predictor of grassland bird occupancy compared to models that included spatial covariance at the 0.81- and 7.29-ha scales. Grassland bird occupancy declined at tree-grass boundaries (negative spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale) and increased in grassland cores (near-zero or slightly positive spatial covariance at the 0.81-ha scale). At low tree cover, Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ), Eastern Kingbird ( Tyrannus tyrannus ), Loggerhead Shrike ( Lanius ludovicianus ), Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), and Scissor-tailed Flycatcher ( Tyrannus forficatus ) occupancy probability more than doubled in grassland cores (where spatial covariance approached zero). Eastern Meadowlark ( Sturnella magna ) had the weakest relationship with spatial covariance. Our results suggest that spatial covariance can identify grassland cores and serve as a powerful predictor of grassland bird community occupancy, even in highly fragmented grasslands. Identifying grassland cores empowers defending core grasslands from woody plant encroachment and then growing cores via active restoration.

Arkansas↗

USGS2016

Complex mixtures, complex responses: Assessing pharmaceutical mixtures using field and laboratory approaches

Pharmaceuticals are present in low concentrations (<100 ng/L) in most municipal wastewater effluents but may be elevated locally because of factors such as input from pharmaceutical formulation facilities. Using existing concentration data, the authors assessed pharmaceuticals in laboratory exposures of fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) and added environmental complexity through effluent exposures. In the laboratory, larval and mature minnows were exposed to a simple opioid mixture (hydrocodone, methadone, and oxycodone), an opioid agonist (tramadol), a muscle relaxant (methocarbamol), a simple antidepressant mixture (fluoxetine, paroxetine, venlafaxine), a sleep aid (temazepam), or a complex mixture of all compounds. Larval minnow response to effluent exposure was not consistent. The 2010 exposures resulted in shorter exposed minnow larvae, whereas the larvae exposed in 2012 exhibited altered escape behavior. Mature minnows exhibited altered hepatosomatic indices, with the strongest effects in females and in mixture exposures. In addition, laboratory-exposed, mature male minnows exposed to all pharmaceuticals (except the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor mixture) defended nest sites less rigorously than fish in the control group. Tramadol or antidepressant mixture exposure resulted in increased splenic T lymphocytes. Only male minnows exposed to whole effluent responded with increased plasma vitellogenin concentrations. Female minnows exposed to pharmaceuticals (except the opioid mixture) had larger livers, likely as a compensatory result of greater prominence of vacuoles in liver hepatocytes. The observed alteration of apical endpoints central to sustaining fish populations confirms that effluents containing waste streams from pharmaceutical formulation facilities can adversely impact fish populations but that the effects may not be temporally consistent. The present study highlights the importance of including diverse biological endpoints spanning levels of biological organization and life stages when assessing contaminant interactions.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗