Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Decision Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

Navigating the field of decision analysis

Managers, policy makers, and decision makers with responsibility for environmental decisions have an extraordinarily difficult job. The systems they manage are complex (coupled human-natural systems), with many dimensions and complicated dynamics. Our knowledge of how those systems respond to management actions is often limited, so many of the decisions have to be made in the face of uncertainty. The field of decision analysis provides a comprehensive set of tools for structuring, analyzing, and making decisions. Arising initially as a way to understand and manage risk, the field has expanded in the last 80 years to cover such topics as multipleobjective trade-offs, time-dependent linked decisions, the value of information, and competition among multiple decision makers. At the same time, cognitive psychologists and behavioural economists have studied human decisions to understand when our innate processes work and when they fail. Formal decision analysis is increasingly being used in many sectors, including economic, industrial, manufacturing, agricultural, transportation, and medical sectors, by individuals, corporations, non-profits, and government agencies. Occasional application of decision analysis to environmental decisions began in the mid-1970s, but the environmental science and management world was largely unaware of decision analysis until the late 1990s and early 2000s. (A major aim of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions – CEED – was to better connect decision analysis and environmental management). Today, the field of environmental decision analysis is coming of age with the maturation of a rich set of tools to help decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions. Sometimes the wealth of tools is daunting, but there are core principles that tie decision analysis together. To help the reader navigate this complexity, we summarize the field of decision analysis in four key messages.

Decision Point Online↗
USGS2023

Decision analysis to advance environmental sustainability

Decision analysis provides a robust framework for complex decisions related to environmental sustainability and conservation, including for energy and water, fisheries and wildlife management, agriculture, and climate change response. The complexities of these problems stem from their large scope and scale, which leads to multiple decision makers, stakeholders, rightsholders, and other entities with potentially competing objectives. These problems often are time limited (e.g., urgent action is required to prevent species’ extinction), involve management interventions over long time scales and delayed responses to management (deep uncertainty), and are impeded by limited resources (funding, capacity, etc.). In this Special Issue on “Decision Analysis to Advance Environmental Sustainability,” we present five case studies of applications of decision analysis to complex problems in environmental sustainability and conservation. These case studies incorporate multiple objectives related to ecological and environmental sustainability, economic and social concerns, and logistics of implementation. They showcase a wide range of tools and applications to these problems. We also provide suggestions for new avenues of research and application of decision analysis to problems of environmental sustainability and conservation, including how to incorporate other decision-making tools into decision analysis processes, how to broaden the reach of decision analysis to other sustainability problems, how to incorporate more stakeholders and rightsholders into the decision process, the potential to incorporate new technology into these processes, identifying more creative alternatives, how to secure more funding, ways to move from decision to action, and how to move beyond status quo to make big transitions necessary to achieve sustainability.

Decision Analysis↗
USGS2007

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Scenario-Based Decision Analysis: Integrated scenario planning and structured decision making for resource management under climate change

Managing resources under climate change is a high-stakes and daunting task, especially because climate change and associated complex biophysical responses engender sustained directional changes as well as abrupt transformations. This environmental non-stationarity challenges assumptions and expectations among scientists, managers, rights holders, and stakeholders. These challenges are anything but straightforward – a high degree of uncertainty impedes our ability to predict the environmental trajectory with confidence, and affected resources often span multiple governance jurisdictions or are subject to competing management objectives. Fortunately, tools exist to help grapple with such challenges. Two commonly used tools are scenario planning (SP) and structured decision making (SDM). SP is a well-established approach for assessing system response and facilitating decision making under a wide range of conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable, such as those associated with adapting to climate change. However, SP lacks a defined structure for establishing objectives, quantifying tradeoffs, and evaluating the performance of candidate decisions to meet those objectives. SDM, on the other hand, is rooted in decision theory and focuses on explicit (often quantitative) assessment of the expected outcomes of choosing among a set of decision alternatives. SDM has been criticized for an inability to account for surprises and for imposing an overly narrow framing of problems to increase tractability. We discuss the strengths and limitations of SDM and SP as experienced through their application in various resource-management contexts, and then propose a new generalized framework – Scenario-Based Decision Analysis (SBDA) – that integrates these complementary approaches. SBDA structures resource management problems and solutions while considering uncertainties and surprises to inform resource management decision making.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2023

Lessons learned in applying decision analysis to natural resource management for high stakes issues surrounded by uncertainty

Management agencies are tasked with difficult decisions for conservation and management of natural resources. These decisions are difficult because of ecological and social uncertainties, the potential for multiple decision makers from multiple jurisdictions, and the need to account for the diverse values of stakeholders. Decision analysis provides a framework for accounting for these difficulties when making conservation and management decisions. We discuss the benefits of the application of decision analysis for these types of issues and provide insights from three case studies from the Laurentian Great Lakes. These case studies describe applications of decision analysis for decisions within an agency (management of double-crested cormorant), among agencies (response to invasive grass carp), and among agencies and stakeholders (sustainable fisheries harvest management). These case studies provide insight into the ways that decision analysis can be useful for conservation and management of natural resources, but we also highlight future needs for decision making for these resources. In particular, applications of decision analysis for conservation and management would benefit from enhanced integration of both ecological and social science, inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders and rightsholders, and better educational opportunities surrounding decision analysis for undergraduates and graduate students of natural resources management programs. Specific lessons from our experiences include the importance of establishing trust and transparency early through the formation of a working group, collaboratively defining objectives and evaluating uncertainties, risks, and tradeoffs, and implementing participatory modeling processes with an independent facilitator with appropriate quantitative skills.

Decision Analysis↗
USGS2021

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2016

Decision analysis to support development of the Glen Canyon Dam long-term experimental and management plan

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and Argonne National Laboratory, completed a decision analysis to use in the evaluation of alternatives in the Environmental Impact Statement concerning the long-term management of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam and associated management activities. Two primary decision analysis methods, multicriteria decision analysis and the expected value of information, were used to evaluate the alternative strategies against the resource goals and to evaluate the influence of uncertainty. A total of 18 performance metrics associated with 8 out of 12 resource goals (fundamental objectives) were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service in partnership with subject-matter teams composed of Federal, State, tribal, and private experts. A total of 19 long-term strategies associated with 7 alternatives were developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, Argonne National Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cooperating Agencies. The 19 long-term strategies were evaluated against the 18 performance metrics using a series of coupled simulation models, taking into account the effects of several important sources of uncertainty. A total of 27 Federal, State, tribal, and nongovernmental agencies were invited by the Assistant Secretary of Interior to participate in a swing-weighting exercise to understand the range of perspectives about how to place relative value on the resource goals and performance metrics; 14 of the 27 chose to participate. The results of the swing-weighting exercise were combined with the evaluation of the alternatives to complete a multicriteria decision analysis. The effects of uncertainty on the ranking of long-term strategies were evaluated through calculation of the value of information. The alternatives and their long-term strategies differed across performance metrics, producing unavoidable tradeoffs; thus, there was no long-term strategy that was dominated by another across all performance metrics. When the performance of each alternative was weighted across performance metrics, three alternatives (B, D, and G) were top-ranked depending on the set of weights proposed: Alternative B was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on hydropower; Alternative G was favored by those stakeholders that placed a high value on the restoration of natural processes, like beachbuilding and natural vegetation; and Alternative D was favored by the remaining stakeholders. Surprisingly, these rankings were not sensitive to the critical uncertainties that were evaluated; that is, the choice of a preferred long-term strategy was sensitive to the value-based judgment about how to place relative weight on the resource goals but was not sensitive to the uncertainties in the system dynamics that were evaluated in this analysis. The one area of uncertainty that did slightly affect the ranking of alternatives was the long-term pattern of hydrological input; because of this sensitivity, some attention to the possible effects of climate change is warranted. The results of the decision analysis are meant to serve as only one of many sources of information that can be used to evaluate the alternatives proposed in the Environmental Impact Statement. These results only focus on those resource goals for which quantitative performance metrics could be formulated and evaluated; there are other important aspects of the resource goals that also need to be considered. Not all the stakeholders who were invited to participate in the decision analysis chose to do so; thus, the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and U.S. Department of Interior may want to consider other input.

Arizona↗
USGS2013

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2020

Decision analysis for managing public natural resources

Examples like the Grand Canyon story are becoming more common—agencies and stakeholders are increasingly using decision tools to help navigate complex decisions regarding natural resources. Several books and many papers have made the case for the use of decision analysis in natural resource management settings and have described the tools available (Conroy and Peterson 2013; Gregory et al. 2012; Williams et al. 2002), but only a few applications have been described. Thus, many agencies understand why decision analysis is valuable, but wonder how to implement it. The primary purpose of this book is to show what decision analysis looks like in practice for natural resource management, as a means to guide decision makers in adopting these practices to improve the achievement of their objectives. To this end, the collected case studies in this book, all real natural resource management decisions, were chosen with three objectives in mind: (1) to demonstrate how structuring decisions can render them more tractable; (2) to illustrate the diversity of decision analysis tools useful at various stages of the structuring process; and (3) to provide guidance on how decision analysis processes can be carried out in public environmental institutions.

Book chapter↗
USGS2000

Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam

Conflicts in water resources exist because river-reservoir systems are managed to optimize traditional benefits (e.g., hydropower and flood control), which are historically quantified in economic terms, whereas natural and environmental resources, including in-stream and riparian resources, are more difficult or impossible to quantify in economic terms. Multicriteria decision analysis provides a quantitative approach to evaluate resources subject to river basin management alternatives. This objective quantification method includes inputs from special interest groups, the general public, and concerned individuals, as well as professionals for each resource considered in a trade-off analysis. Multicriteria decision analysis is applied to resources and flow alternatives presented in the environmental impact statement for Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River. A numeric rating and priority-weighting scheme is used to evaluate 29 specific natural resource attributes, grouped into seven main resource objectives, for nine flow alternatives enumerated in the environmental impact statement.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗
USGS2026

Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions—those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont—were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses. It is intended to serve as the technical basis for Vermont’s response plan.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2026

Decision analysis of long-term research and monitoring investments for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program

Congressional authorization of the Water Resource Development Act of 2020 increased funding for the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) program and its Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element. With adequate resources there is an opportunity for LTRM to expand its understanding of the Upper Mississippi River System, address unmet partner information needs, and better inform restoration and management of the Upper Mississippi River System. Additional information needs will need to be identified and prioritized in a manner that accounts for potential tradeoffs among the preferences of UMRR partners for long-term commitments of effort. In this report, we describe a decision analysis process used by UMRR partners to develop a comprehensive framework for prioritizing and selecting the information needs they would address in the event of changes in available resources. The partners of the UMRR formed a “planning team” with members representing the UMRR partner agencies to work through the decision analysis process. This team included two facilitators who led the decision analysis process. The planning team began this process by articulating a consensus understanding of the specific decisions to be made and identifying a set of decision outcomes (objectives) the UMRR partners wanted to achieve. Next, they identified information needs not being addressed by ongoing monitoring and research, developed criteria for assessing the expected benefit of addressing each information need, and estimated the costs of addressing each information need. They then used an optimization approach to identify the portfolio of information needs that would produce the most benefit for a given cost if they were effectively addressed. Originally, the planning team expected this analysis to inform a project plan that would start in 2024, but in recognition of financial uncertainties, we refer to planning dates as the number of years after resources become available (for example, “year 1,” “year 2,” and so on).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2007

Collaborative environmental planning in river management: An application of multicriteria decision analysis in the White River Watershed in Vermont

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a well-established family of decision tools to aid stakeholder groups in arriving at collective decisions. MCDA can also function as a framework for the social learning process, serving as an educational aid in decision problems characterized by a high level of public participation. In this paper, the framework and results of a structured decision process using the outranking MCDA methodology preference ranking organization method of enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are presented. PROMETHEE is used to frame multi-stakeholder discussions of river management alternatives for the Upper White River of Central Vermont, in the northeastern United States. Stakeholders met over 10 months to create a shared vision of an ideal river and its services to communities, develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate river management alternatives, and elicit preferences to rank and compare individual and group preferences. The MCDA procedure helped to frame a group process that made stakeholder preferences explicit and substantive discussions about long-term river management possible.

Vermont↗
USGS2023

Using decision analysis to determine the feasibility of a conservation translocation

Conservation translocations, intentional movements of species to protect against extinction, have become widespread in recent decades and are projected to increase further as biodiversity loss continues worldwide. The literature abounds with analyses to inform translocations and assess whether they are successful, but the fundamental question of whether they should be initiated at all is rarely addressed formally. We used decision analysis to assess northern leopard frog reintroduction in northern Idaho, with success defined as a population that persists for at least 50 years. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game was the decision maker (i.e., the agency that will use this assessment to inform their decisions). Stakeholders from government, indigenous groups, academia, land management agencies, and conservation organizations also participated. We built an age-structured population model to predict how management alternatives would affect probability of success. In the model, we explicitly represented epistemic uncertainty around a success criterion (probability of persistence) characterized by aleatory uncertainty. For the leading alternative, the mean probability of persistence was 40%. The distribution of the modelling results was bimodal, with most parameter combinations resulting in either very low (<5%) or relatively high (>95%) probabilities of success. Along with other considerations, including cost, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game will use this assessment to inform a decision regarding reintroduction of northern leopard frogs. Conservation translocations may benefit greatly from more widespread use of decision analysis to counter the complexity and uncertainty inherent in these decisions.

Decision Analysis↗
USGS2021

Using decision analysis to collaboratively respond to invasive species threats: A case study of Lake Erie grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella)

Decisions about invasive species control and eradication can be difficult because of uncertainty in population demographics, movement ecology, and effectiveness of potential response actions. These decisions often include multiple stakeholders and management entities with potentially different objectives, management priorities, and jurisdictional authority. We provide a case study of using multi-party, collaborative decision analysis to aid decision makers in determining objectives and control actions for invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in Lake Erie. Creating this process required binational (Canada-United States) and multi-state/provincial collaboration to craft a shared problem statement, establish objectives related to ecological, economic, and social concerns, determine potential response actions, and evaluate consequences and tradeoffs of these actions. We used participatory modeling and expert elicitation to evaluate the effectiveness of control scenarios that varied in action type (i.e., removal efforts and spawning barriers) and the temporal and spatial application of these actions. Using a matrix population model parameterized for western Lake Erie grass carp, we found that removal efforts concentrated in areas of high catchability, when paired with a spawning barrier on the Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, could effectively control grass carp in Lake Erie, if all assumptions are met. We determined a set of key uncertainties regarding gear catchability and current population size that have led to the transition to an adaptive management process. In addition, our work formed the basis for grass carp management plans for the states of Michigan and Ohio and has provided a means for collaboration among agencies for effective application of control efforts.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2018

Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife

1.Better understanding human‐wildlife interactions and their links with management can help improve the design of wildlife protection zones. One example is the problem of wildlife collisions with vehicles or human‐built structures (e.g. power lines, wind farms). In fact, collisions between marine wildlife and watercraft are among the major threats faced by several endangered species of marine mammals. Natural resource managers are therefore interested in finding cost‐effective solutions to mitigate these threats. 2.We combined abundance estimators with encounter rate theory to estimate relative lethal collision risk of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) from watercraft. We first modeled seasonal abundance of watercraft and manatees using a Bayesian analysis of aerial survey count data. We then modeled relative lethal collision risk in space and across seasons. Finally, we applied decision analysis and Linear Integer Programming to determine the optimal design of speed zones in terms of relative risk to manatees and costs to waterway users. We used a Pareto efficient frontier approach to evaluate the performance of alternative zones, which included additional practical considerations (e.g. spatial aggregation of speed zones) in relation to the optimal zone configurations. 3.Under the various relationships for probability of death given strike speed that we considered, the current speed zones reduced the relative lethal collision risk by an average of 51.5% to 70% compared to the scenario in which all speed regulations were removed (i.e. the no‐protection scenario). We identified optimal zones and near‐optimal zones with additional management considerations that improved upon the current zones in terms of cost or relative risk. 4.Policy Implications : Our analytical framework combines encounter rate theory and decision analysis to quantify the effectiveness of speed zones protecting manatees while accounting for uncertainty. Our approach can be used to optimize the design of protection zones intended to reduce conflicts between human waterborne activity and marine mammals. This framework could be extended to address many other problems of human‐wildlife interactions, such as the optimal placement of wind farms to minimize collisions with wildlife or the optimal allocation of ranger effort to mitigate poaching threats.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2017

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2025

Comparing SMART and ELECTRE methods for multi-criteria decision analysis: A case study evaluating conservation strategies

Tradeoffs are part of the inherent challenge of making decisions. Defaulting to a prevalent method can mask methodological variation and potential improvement in decision quality. We applied and compared methods for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in real-world environmental planning. Decision makers at a global conservation organization formed teams to review and prioritize the allocation of resources across a set of existing strategies across seven teams. Each team evaluated and rated strategies based on a common scale composed of weighted objectives and criteria. Sensitivity analysis included implementing two different MCDA methods, varying strategy ratings, and using two different criteria weighting techniques. The MCDA methods were SMART (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique) and ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing The REality). We tested user satisfaction between methods, overall rankings between methods, and whether MCDA improved the decision-making process. The methods did not differ in most comparisons, although participants were more likely to use the SMART method in future tradeoff decisions. We found evidence of rank correlation between methods. Lastly, the teams’ final recommendations were consistent with MCDA results. This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of MCDA in real-world applications.

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators↗