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USGS2012

Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Connecticut;Labrador;Maine;Massachusetts;New Bruns↗

USGS2018

Climate change science and modeling

This chapter provides a brief background on climate change science, climate simulation models, and models that project the impacts of changes in climate on tree species and ecosystems. Throughout the chapter, boxes list resources for more information on each topic. A more detailed scientific review of climate change science, trends, and modeling can be found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014), and the Fourth National Climate Assessment (U.S. Global Climate Research Program [USGCRP] 2017).

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗

USGS2015

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2019

The Laurentian Great Lakes: A case study in ecological disturbance and climate change

Climate change effects are already significant, but can also magnify other ecological problems. This can be clearly seen in the Laurentian Great Lakes, which have suffered habitat degradation, fishery overharvest and dramatic alterations by invasive species. Thermal changes are expected to cause extensive loss of suitable fish habitat, and changing precipitation patterns will aggravate the problems with our highly modified lotic and lentic systems. A brief summary of the historic ecological context provided by the Great Lakes case is presented, followed by the descriptions of selected tools that help to understand and evaluate both ecological and climate change problems. Species distribution models and habitat classification combined with climate change predictions can identify the distribution and extent of optimal habitats, and identify which are most vulnerable to climate change. Ecological flow modelling can help to identify when critical flow changes are likely. Mechanistic simulation modelling specifies understanding of how aquatic systems function and can reveal cause and effect relationships. These tools can be used to help managers to protect optimal habitat, resist climate change effects to other habitats and adapt cultural systems to climate‐altered aquatic systems.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2014

Maintaining resilience in the face of climate change

Climate change, when combined with more conventional stress from human exploitation, calls into question the capacity of both existing ecological communities and resource management institutions to experience disturbances while substantially retaining their same functions and identities (Zellmer and Gunderson 2009; Ruhl 2011). In other words, the physical and biological effects of climate change raise fundamental challenges to the resilience of natural ecosystems (Gunderson and Holling 2002). Perhaps more importantly, the projected scope of ecological shifts from global climate change-and uncertainty about such changes-significantly stresses the capacity of legal institutions to manage ecosystem change (Camacho 2009). Existing governmental institutions lack the adaptive capacity to manage such substantial changes to ecological and legal systems. In particular, regulators and managers lack information about ecological effects and alternative management strategies for managing the effects of climate change (Karkkainen 2008; Camacho 2009), as well as the institutional infrastructure for obtaining such information (Peters 2008). A number of recent initiatives have been proposed to address the effects of climate change on ecological systems. However, these nascent programs do not fully meet the needs for developing adaptive capacity. A federal, publicly accessible, and system-wide portal and clearinghouse will help regulators at all levels of government manage the effects and uncertainty from climate change (DiMento and Ingram 2005; Farber 2007). Such an information infrastructure, combined with a range of incentives that encourage regulators to engage in adaptive management and programmatic adjustment over time (Baron et al. 2009), will help governmental and private institutions become more resilient and capable of managing the physical and human institutional effects of changing climate (Camacho 2009).

Book chapter↗

USGS2008

Soil texture drives responses of soil respiration to precipitation pulses in the sonoran desert: Implications for climate change

Climate change predictions for the desert southwestern U.S. are for shifts in precipitation patterns. The impacts of climate change may be significant, because desert soil processes are strongly controlled by precipitation inputs ('pulses') via their effect on soil water availability. This study examined the response of soil respiration-an important biological process that affects soil carbon (C) storage-to variation in pulses representative of climate change scenarios for the Sonoran Desert. Because deserts are mosaics of different plant cover types and soil textures-which create patchiness in soil respiration-we examined how these landscape characteristics interact to affect the response of soil respiration to pulses. Pulses were applied to experimental plots of bare and vegetated soil on contrasting soil textures typical of Sonoran Desert grasslands. The data were analyzed within a Bayesian framework to: (1) determine pulse size and antecedent moisture (soil moisture prior to the pulse) effects on soil respiration, (2) quantify soil texture (coarse vs. fine) and cover type (bare vs. vegetated) effects on the response of soil respiration and its components (plant vs. microbial) to pulses, and (3) explore the relationship between long-term variation in pulse regimes and seasonal soil respiration. Regarding objective (1), larger pulses resulted in higher respiration rates, particularly from vegetated fine-textured soil, and dry antecedent conditions amplified respiration responses to pulses (wet antecedent conditions dampened the pulse response). Regarding (2), autotrophic (plant) activity was a significant source (???60%) of respiration and was more sensitive to pulses on coarse- versus fine-textured soils. The sensitivity of heterotrophic (microbial) respiration to pulses was highly dependent on antecedent soil water. Regarding (3), seasonal soil respiration was predicted to increase with both growing season precipitation and mean pulse size (but only for pulses between 7 and 25 mm). Thus, the heterogeneity of the desert landscape and the timing or the number of medium-sized pulses is expected to significantly impact desert soil C loss with climate change. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2020

Reservoir fish habitats: A perspective on coping with climate change

Climate change is the defining environmental problem for our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly evident and are anticipated to profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish habitats and fish assemblages. Reservoirs are important structures for coping with projected shifts in water supply, but they also provide refuge for riverine fishes and retain distinct fish assemblages that support diverse fisheries. The effects of climate change on reservoirs are unique among aquatic systems because reservoirs have distinctive habitat characteristics due to their terrestrial origin and strong linkage to catchments. This article reviews (1) the projected effects of rising temperature and shifting precipitation on reservoir fish habitats, and (2) adaptation strategies to cope with the anticipated effects. Climate warming impacts to reservoirs may include higher water temperatures and shifts in hydrology that can result in reduced water levels in summer and fall, altered water residence cycles, disconnection from upstream riverine habitats and backwaters, increased stratification, eutrophication, anoxia, and a general shift in biotic assemblages including plants, invertebrates, and fishes. What is needed to adapt to these changes is a perspective that focuses on maintaining ecosystem functionality rather than on retaining a certain species composition. To that end, various strategies organized into planning, monitoring, and managing compartments are identified.

Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture↗

USGS2015

Climate change

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Book chapter↗

USGS2022

Large fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributes in driving climate-induced shifts is not understood. Future fire regimes could be characterized by many small fires or a few large fires. Large and small fires create and regulate distinct burn patterns, which may influence tree-species responses and post-fire successional trajectories. Here we investigated the effects of future fire-regime variability on the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China under climate change using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO) and ecosystem process model (LINKAGES). We simulated fire regimes using the LANDIS PRO fire module. We designed two fire scenarios (frequent, small fires and infrequent, large fires) to represent different fire regimes in terms of fire size. Results showed fire-catalyzed, climate-induced transitions from boreal to pioneer and temperate forest communities. Frequent, small fires resulted in 13% and 23% higher increases in pioneer and temperate species respectively, relative to infrequent, large fires. Therefore, species composition shifts were faster following frequent, small fires than infrequent, large fires. The results can help policymakers and forest managers determine tradeoffs among strategies to mitigate or adapt to climate change under altered fire regimes.

Great Xing'an Mountains↗

USGS2020

Insects in high-elevation streams: Life in extreme environments imperiled by climate change

Climate change is altering conditions in high-elevation streams worldwide, with largely unknown effects on resident communities of aquatic insects. Here, we review the challenges of climate change for high-elevation aquatic insects and how they may respond, focusing on current gaps in knowledge. Understanding current effects and predicting future impacts will depend on progress in three areas. First, we need better descriptions of the multivariate physical challenges and interactions among challenges in high-elevation streams, which include low but rising temperatures, low oxygen supply and increasing oxygen demand, high and rising exposure to ultraviolet radiation, low ionic strength, and variable but shifting flow regimes. These factors are often studied in isolation even though they covary in nature and interact in space and time. Second, we need a better mechanistic understanding of how physical conditions in streams drive the performance of individual insects. Environment-performance links are mediated by physiology and behavior, which are poorly known in high-elevation taxa. Third, we need to define the scope and importance of potential responses across levels of biological organization. Short-term responses are defined by the tolerances of individuals, their capacities to perform adequately across a range of conditions, and behaviors used to exploit local, fine-scale variation in abiotic factors. Longer term responses to climate change, however, may include individual plasticity and evolution of populations. Whether high-elevation aquatic insects can mitigate climatic risks via these pathways is largely unknown.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2004

Ecological response to global climatic change

Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California’s iconic coastal region.

California↗

USGS2017

Forecasted range shifts of arid-land fishes in response to climate change

Climate change is poised to alter the distributional limits, center, and size of many species. Traits may influence different aspects of range shifts, with trophic generality facilitating shifts at the leading edge, and greater thermal tolerance limiting contractions at the trailing edge. The generality of relationships between traits and range shifts remains ambiguous however, especially for imperiled fishes residing in xeric riverscapes. Our objectives were to quantify contemporary fish distributions in the Lower Colorado River Basin, forecast climate change by 2085 using two general circulation models, and quantify shifts in the limits, center, and size of fish elevational ranges according to fish traits. We examined relationships among traits and range shift metrics either singly using univariate linear modeling or combined with multivariate redundancy analysis. We found that trophic and dispersal traits were associated with shifts at the leading and trailing edges, respectively, although projected range shifts were largely unexplained by traits. As expected, piscivores and omnivores with broader diets shifted upslope most at the leading edge while more specialized invertivores exhibited minimal changes. Fishes that were more mobile shifted upslope most at the trailing edge, defying predictions. No traits explained changes in range center or size. Finally, current preference explained multivariate range shifts, as fishes with faster current preferences exhibited smaller multivariate changes. Although range shifts were largely unexplained by traits, more specialized invertivorous fishes with lower dispersal propensity or greater current preference may require the greatest conservation efforts because of their limited capacity to shift ranges under climate change.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2016

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Nature Climate Change↗

USGS2008

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2011

Increased fitness of rice plants to abiotic stress via habitat adapted symbiosis: A strategy for mitigating impacts of climate change

Climate change and catastrophic events have contributed to rice shortages in several regions due to decreased water availability and soil salinization. Although not adapted to salt or drought stress, two commercial rice varieties achieved tolerance to these stresses by colonizing them with Class 2 fungal endophytes isolated from plants growing across moisture and salinity gradients. Plant growth and development, water usage, ROS sensitivity and osmolytes were measured with and without stress under controlled conditions. The endophytes conferred salt, drought and cold tolerance to growth chamber and greenhouse grown plants. Endophytes reduced water consumption by 20–30% and increased growth rate, reproductive yield, and biomass of greenhouse grown plants. In the absence of stress, there was no apparent cost of the endophytes to plants, however, endophyte colonization decreased from 100% at planting to 65% compared to greenhouse plants grown under continual stress (maintained 100% colonization). These findings indicate that rice plants can exhibit enhanced stress tolerance via symbiosis with Class 2 endophytes, and suggest that symbiotic technology may be useful in mitigating impacts of climate change on other crops and expanding agricultural production onto marginal lands.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2023

Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change

Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo silvestris ) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over eight years to investigate potential climatic drivers of variation in nest initiation dates. We investigated climactic relationships with two datasets, one inclusive of successful and unsuccessful nests (full dataset) and another of just successful nests (successfully hatched dataset), to determine whether successfully hatched nests responded differently to weather changes than all nests did. In the full dataset, each 10 cm increase in January precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.46-0.66 days earlier, and each 10 cm increase in precipitation during the 30 days preceding nesting was associated with nesting occurring 0.17-0.21 days later. In the successfully hatched dataset, a 10 cm increase in March precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.67-0.74 days earlier, and an increase of one unit of variation in February maximum temperature was associated with nesting occurring 0.02 days later. We combined the results of these modeled relationships with multiple climate scenarios to understand potential implications of future climate change on wild turkey nesting phenology; results indicated that mean nest initiation date is projected to change by <0.1 day by 2040-2060. Wild turkey nesting phenology did not track changes in spring green-up timing, which could result in phenological mismatch between the timing of nesting and the availability of resources critical for successful reproduction.

Climate Change Ecology↗

USGS2020

Assessing the vulnerability of military installations in the coterminous United States to potential biome shifts resulting from rapid climate change

Climate change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge future military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, invasive species, etc. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low - B1, moderate - A1B and high - A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess vulnerability of installations (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature relative to historical conditions. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of military training and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased atmospheric temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in the coming decades in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connectic↗