Search USGSSearch

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “CHANCE”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Interpretation of the Last Chance thrust, Death Valley region, California, as an Early Permian décollement in a previously undeformed shale basin

The Last Chance thrust, discontinuously exposed over an area of at least 2500 km 2 near the south end of the Cordilleran foreland thrust belt in the Death Valley region of east-central California, is controversial because of its poorly constrained age and its uncertain original geometry and extent. We interpret this thrust to be Early Permian in age, to extend throughout a sedimentary basin in which deep-water Mississippian shale overlain by Pennsylvanian and earliest Permian limestone turbidites accumulated, to represent about 30 km of eastward displacement, and to be related to convergence on a northeast-trending segment of the Early Permian continental margin. Last Chance deformation occurred between the times of the Antler and Sonoma orogenies of Late Devonian–Early Mississippian and Late Permian ages, respectively, and followed Early to Middle Pennsylvanian truncation of the continental margin by transform faulting. In the western part of the Mississippian shale basin in east-central California, the originally recognized exposures of the Last Chance thrust show Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic strata above lower-plate Mississippian shale. Farther east, faults subparallel to bedding above, below, and within the Mississippian shale are interpreted to mark the thrust zone and to represent a regional décollement. At the eastern margin of the basin, upper-plate thrust slices of deep-water, late Paleozoic strata are interpreted to have piled up against the margin of the Mississippian carbonate shelf to form a large antiformal stack above the Lee Flat thrust, which we regard as the easternmost exposure of the Last Chance thrust. Thrust loading depressed the western part of the shelf, creating a new sedimentary basin in which about 3.5 km of younger Early Permian deep-water strata were deposited against the antiformal stack. Later, probably in the Late Permian, other thrusts, including the Inyo Crest thrust, which was subsequently overlapped by Early to Middle(?) Triassic marine strata, cut across the Last Chance thrust. We interpret the Last Chance thrust as similar in many ways to Appalachian-type décollements in which the zone of thrusting is localized along a shale interval. The Last Chance thrust, however, has been dismembered during later geologic events so that its original geometry has been obscured. Our model may have unrecognized analogs in other structurally complex shale basins in which the initial deformation was along a major shale unit.

Earth-Science Reviews

Importance of record length with respect to estimating the 1-percent chance flood

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages have been established in every State in the Nation, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. From these st reamflow records, estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are often developed and used to design transportation and water- conveyance structures to protect lives and property, and to determine flood-insurance rates. Probably the most recognizable flood statistic computed from USGS stream gaging records is the 1- percent (%) chance flood; better known has the 100-year flood. By definition, this is a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The 1% chance flood is a statistical estimate that can be significantly influenced by length of record and extreme flood events captured in that record. Consequently, it is typically recommended that flood statistics be updated on some regular interval such as every 10 years. This paper examines the influence of record length on the 1% chance flood for the Broad River in Georgia and the substantial difference that can occur in the estimate based on record length and the hydrologic conditions under which that record was collected.

Conference Paper

Chance-corrected classification for use in discriminant analysis: Ecological applications

A method for evaluating the classification table from a discriminant analysis is described. The statistic, kappa, is useful to ecologists in that it removes the effects of chance. It is useful even with equal group sample sizes although the need for a chance-corrected measure of prediction becomes greater with more dissimilar group sample sizes. Examples are presented.

American Midland Naturalist

Stochastic programming with a joint chance constraint model for reservoir refill operation considering flood risk

Reservoir refill operation modeling attempts to maximize a set of benefits while minimizing risks. The benefits and risks can be in opposition to each other, such as having enough water for hydropower generation while leaving enough room for flood protection. In addition to multiple objects, the uncertainty of streamflow can make decision making difficult. This paper develops a stochastic optimization model for reservoir refill operation with the objective of maximizing the expected synthesized energy production for a cascade system of hydropower stations while considering flood risk. Streamflow uncertainty is addressed by discretized streamflow scenarios and flood risk is controlled by a joint chance constraint restricting the occurrence probability. With the variability of flood risk level, two advancing refill scenarios for exploring operation benefit are presented. Scenario I loosens the current stagewise storage bounds conditions and allows advancing reservoir refills but keeps the flood risk level the same as the refill policies obtained under the current storage bounds. Scenario II keeps the current storage bounds unchanged but allows increases in flood risk level. The proposed methodology is applied to the Xiluodu cascade system of reservoirs in China and investigates the optimal refill policies obtained by both scenarios. Compared with the benchmark obtained under the current storage bounds and lowest flood risk level, the results show (1) the synthesized energy production can be improved by 2.13% without changing the flood risk level under Scenario I, and (2) the synthesized energy production can also be increased by 0.21% at the expense of increasing the flood risk level by 4.4% when Scenario II is employed. As Scenario I produces higher benefit and lower risk than Scenario II, it is recommended to loosen the current stagewise storage bounds but to keep the flood risk level unchanged during refill operations.

Xiluodu Cascade Reservoir

Book Reivew: A chance for lasting survival: Ecology and behavior of wild giant pandas

“If we watch species going extinct in front of us, how useful is that we publish 100 or even 1,000 papers by studying them?” (p. 330). This quote from senior author Pan Wenshi captures an important essence of this book. A translation of a 2001 monograph originally published in Chinese, this volume details the findings of a 15-year research program in the Qinling Mountains by Wenshi and his students. Starting in 1984, this Chinese research team from Peking University was only the second to study free-ranging pandas. This is the remarkable journey of a devoted group of field researchers who helped changed the course of giant panda conservation, events that few conservationists outside of China have been aware of until now. Review info: A chance for lasting survival: Ecology and behavior of wild giant pandas. By Pan Wenshi, Lü Zhi, Zhu Xiaojian, Wang Dajun, Wang Hao, Long Yu, Fu Dali, and Zhou Xin; edited by, William J. McShea, Richard B. Harris, David L. Garshelis, and Wang Dajun, 2014. ISBN: 978-1-935623-17-5, 349pp.

The Quarterly Review of Biology

Mississippian sedimentary facies patterns in east-central California and implications for development of the Permian last chance thrust

Mississippian sedimentary facies belts in east-central California, occurring primarily in the autochthon (lower plate) of the Last Chance Thrust, are consistently oriented in a northeast–southwest direction. The boundary of one belt is marked by the depositional limit of the Osagean to Meramecian Santa Rosa Hills Limestone; a second belt farther to the northwest is bordered by the erosional truncation of the Kinderhookian to Osagean Tin Mountain Limestone. Two additional facies belts, both in the Meramecian to Chesterian Kearsarge Formation, also are present in the area; one near Jackass Flats is marked by the presence of limestone and quartzite olistoliths, and...

SEPM Special Publication

Evolution of the last chance thrust concept

The concept of the Permian Last Chance Thrust has passed through many stages. Here we point out which critical observations have led to changes in the way this important feature has been interpreted.

SEPM Special Publication

100-Year flood–it's all about chance

In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

General Information Product

TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH TIME IN A PERENNIALLY BOILING WELL IN THE LONG VALLEY CALDERA, MONO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA; OBSERVATIONS IN CHANCE NO. 1 (1976-1983).

Chance No. 1 was drilled to a depth of 245. 4 m and cased to a depth of 72. 2 m in 1961. Temperature logs were obtained in 1976, 1982, and 1983, with the casing open to the atmosphere. Water was boiling at the surface of the fluid column on each occasion. Temperatures within the upper part of the cased interval remained virtually identical over the 7-year period. The small differences observed can be ascribed to convective motions in the large-diameter casing and the large geothermal gradient. Above a depth of 160 m in the open hole, temperatures have cooled 5 degree -7 degree C over the 7-year period of observation. The shape of the temperature profiles and their variation with time can be explained by an influx of cool water at about 160 m. The cooling rate is much larger between 1982 and 1983 than that between 1982 and 1976, which suggests that earthquake shaking may be a major contributing factor.

Conference Paper

Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations

Climate-induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector-borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development and corresponding phenological patterns are expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecast of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data. As climate change will have variable effects on mosquito demography and phenology across species it is vital that we identify associated traits which may explain the observed variation. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We describe four primary life-history and physiological traits that can be used to constrain models and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop a more general understanding of how mosquito activity will shift under changing climates. Combining a trait-based approach with appropriate modeling techniques can allow for the development of actionable, flexible, and multi-scale forecasts of mosquito population dynamics and phenology for diverse stakeholders.

Michigan, Wisconsin

Learning and adaptation in waterfowl conservation: By chance or by design?

The most recent revision of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to increase the adaptive capacity of the management enterprise to cope with accelerating changes in climate, land-use patterns, agency priorities, and the waterfowl and wetlands constituency. Institutional and cultural changes of the magnitude envisioned are necessarily slow, messy processes, involving many actors who at a minimum must agree on the need for change. Waterfowl conservation now finds itself in the transition zone between business as usual and some new mode of operation. There are at least 2 different perspectives of this transition: one focuses on process, accountability, and planning for change; another focuses on solutions generated from an organic process of creativity, information sharing, and risk-taking. Both of these views have something to contribute, but some in the wildlife management enterprise may tend to focus more on the first view. We suggest that ideas from panarchy theory, especially those related to the behaviors of complex adaptive systems, can help waterfowl managers better understand and foster the institutional changes they seek.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

Second chance for the plains bison

Before European settlement the plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) numbered in the tens of millions across most of the temperate region of North America. Within the span of a few decades during the mid- to late-1800s its numbers were reduced by hunting and other factors to a few hundred. The plight of the plains bison led to one of the first major movements in North America to save an endangered species. A few individuals and the American Bison Society rescued the remaining animals. Attempts to hybridize cattle and bison when bison numbers were low resulted in extensive cattle gene introgression in bison. Today, though approximately 500,000 plains bison exist in North America, few are free of cattle gene introgression, 96% are subject to anthropogenic selection for commodity production, and only 4% are in herds managed primarily for conservation purposes. Small herd size, artificial selection, cattle-gene introgression, and other factors threaten the diversity and integrity of the bison genome. In addition, the bison is for all practical purposes ecologically extinct across its former range, with multiple consequences for grassland biodiversity. Urgent measures are needed to conserve the wild bison genome and to restore the ecological role of bison in grassland ecosystems. Socioeconomic trends in the Great Plains, combined with new information about bison conservation needs and new conservation initiatives by both the public and public sectors, have set the stage for significant progress in bison conservation over the next few years.

Biological Conservation

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long‐term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter‐term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

Hawaii

Partly cloudy with a chance of migration: Weather, radars, and aeroecology

Aeroecology is an emerging scientific discipline that integrates atmospheric science, Earth science, geography, ecology, computer science, computational biology, and engineering to further the understanding of biological patterns and processes. The unifying concept underlying this new transdisciplinary field of study is a focus on the planetary boundary layer and lower free atmosphere (i.e., the aerosphere), and the diversity of airborne organisms that inhabit and depend on the aerosphere for their existence. Here, we focus on the role of radars and radar networks in aeroecological studies. Radar systems scanning the atmosphere are primarily used to monitor weather conditions and track the location and movements of aircraft. However, radar echoes regularly contain signals from other sources, such as airborne birds, bats, and arthropods. We briefly discuss how radar observations can be and have been used to study a variety of airborne organisms and examine some of the many potential benefits likely to arise from radar aeroecology for meteorological and biological research over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Radar systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated with the advent of innovative signal processing and dual-polarimetric capabilities. These capabilities should be better harnessed to promote both meteorological and aeroecological research and to explore the interface between these two broad disciplines. We strongly encourage close collaboration among meteorologists, radar scientists, biologists, and others toward developing radar products that will contribute to a better understanding of airborne fauna.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society