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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes

It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature

Dispersal and survival of sea lamprey in Lake Erie and connected waterways

Invasive sea lamprey inhabiting the North American Laurentian Great Lakes are the target of the world’s longest running vertebrate invasive species control program. However, metapopulation dynamics comprising survival and dispersal during the sea lampreys’ lake-resident life stages are poorly understood. We applied acoustic telemetry and continuous-time multistate capture-recapture modeling to address this knowledge gap in Lake Erie. We acoustic-tagged sea lamprey (n = 619) and deployed acoustic receivers into all known connected waterways containing larval sea lamprey rearing habitat (n = 23), including the Detroit River (connecting Lake Erie to Lake Huron) and distributaries to Lake Ontario. Distribution of tagged sea lamprey to putative spawning waterways was shaped by heterogeneous stream attractiveness and distance-limited dispersal. Using parameter estimates from our capture-recapture model and simulation, we predicted survival and dispersal outcomes for a hypothetical sea lamprey population evenly distributed throughout Lake Erie at the beginning of January (34% pre-spawn mortality, 45% dispersal into Lake Erie tributaries, 19% dispersal into the Detroit River, and 2% dispersal into Lake Ontario). The methodology we applied may be widely useful for investigating dispersal and survival of aquatic organisms.

Lake Erie, Lake Ontario

Modeling regional occupancy of fishes using acoustic telemetry: A model comparison framework applied to lake trout

Acoustic telemetry is a common tool used in fisheries management to estimate fish space use (i.e., occupancy) from a local habitat scale to entire systems. Numerous analytical models have been developed to estimate different aspects of fish movement from telemetry datasets, yet evaluations of model performance and comparisons among models are limited. Here, we develop a framework to evaluate model estimates of regional occupancy in large and fragmented systems using an acoustic receiver array in Lake Champlain. We simulated the tracks of 100 acoustically tagged fish using a random walk function and created detection events based on receiver positions and distance-based detection probability. Regional occupancy for the simulated data was estimated by six movement models that ranged in analytical complexity, and results were compared to the true distributions for each simulated track to evaluate model error. The six movement models included: (1) a basic residency index using detections alone; (2) a residency index using last-observation-carried-forward; (3) a centers of activity model; (4) linear and non-linear interpolations (i.e., least-cost paths); and (5 and 6) two dynamic Brownian bridge movement models generated using separate packages in R. We developed a model selection process to compare model performance and select the optimal analysis based on simulation error. This process showed significant differences in model performance among the six movement models based on model error. Overall, the model generating least-cost paths using linear and non-linear interpolations consistently provided the most accurate regional occupancy estimates. Based on these simulation results, we applied this model to a case study that evaluated patterns in the regional distribution of stocked lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Champlain, which demonstrated distinct regional occupancy of two stocked lake trout groups. These results demonstrate potential for large variability in interpretation of acoustic telemetry data for describing regional fish distribution dependent on the analytical method used.

New York, Vermont

Gas hydrates amount estimated from acoustic logs at the Blake Ridge, Sites 994, 995, and 997

The amount of in situ methane hydrates present in marine sediments is estimated at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 164 drill sites on the Blake Ridge using acoustic logs. A weighted equation developed for relating the amount of hydrates concentrated in the pore space of unconsolidated sediments to the increase of acoustic velocities is applied to the acoustic logs using three sets of porosity distribution (porosity derived from bulk density logs, core porosity, and linear approximation of core porosity). Generally, the gas hydrate concentration increases with increasing depth toward the bottom-simulating reflector (BSR). The average gas hydrate concentration in the pore space varies between 12.1%, using porosity from the bulk density, and 3.8%, using core-derived porosity. The average hydrate concentrations in the pore space using core porosities are 3.9% (2.2 vol% of sediment), 5.7% (3.3 vol%) and 3.8% (2.2 vol%) at Sites 994, 995, and 997 respectively. These estimated concentrations are comparable to those calculated from chloride anomalies at these sites.

Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program: Scienti

A preliminary evaluation of near-transducer velocities collected with low-blank acoustic Doppler current profiler

Many streams and rivers for which the US Geological Survey must provide discharge measurements are too shallow to apply existing acoustic Doppler current profiler techniques for flow measurements of satisfactory quality. Because the same transducer is used for both transmitting and receiving acoustic signals in most Doppler current profilers, some small time delay is required for acoustic "ringing" to be damped out of transducers before meaningful measurements can be made. The result of that time delay is that velocity measurements cannot be made close to the transducer thus limiting the usefulness of these instruments in shallow regions. Manufacturers and users are constantly striving for improvements to acoustic instruments which would permit useful discharge measurements in shallow rivers and streams that are still often measured with techniques and instruments more than a century old. One promising area of advance appeared to be reduction of time delay (blank) required between transmitting and receiving signals during acoustic velocity measurements. Development of a low- or zero-blank transducer by RD Instruments3 held promise that velocity measurements could be made much closer to the transducer and thus in much shallower water. Initial experience indicates that this is not the case; limitation of measurement quality appears to be related to the physical presence of the transducer itself within the flow field. The limitation may be the result of changes to water flow pattern close to the transducer rather than transducer ringing characteristics as a function of blanking distance. Results of field experiments are discussed that support this conclusion and some minimum measurement distances from transducer are suggested based on water current speed and ADCP sample modes.

Conference Paper

Field testing a high-frequency acoustic attenuation system for measuring fine suspended sediments and algal movements

Acoustic measurements of suspended sediment have the potential to allow remote, autonomous monitoring of sediment movements at much higher temporal resolution than traditional manual sampling methods. Although suspended sands present a challenging measurement problem due to their logarithmic distribution with depth, fine clay sediments are distributed evenly throughout a stream cross section, making them amenable to point measurements. In order to improve measurement capabilities for fine sediments in stream channels, The National Center for Physical Acoustics at The University of Mississippi has developed a remote, autonomous acoustic system to monitor fine sediments transported in streams. The system was tested on the Middle Rio Grande near San Acacia, New Mexico, and in Goodwin Creek in Panola County, Mississippi. The acoustic instruments were compared to sediment concentrations from physical samples in both deployments. Diurnal patterns were found in the acoustic signals from the Middle Rio Grande, and a follow up experiment at The University of Mississippi Biological Field Station was used to investigate the potential effects of algal biomass on acoustic attenuation measurements. The results showed diurnal patterns in attenuation were associated with patterns in light, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. These results combined with information from the literature indicate diel movement of algal colonies in the water column of some water bodies may interfere with high-frequency acoustic measurements in natural environments and that acoustic methods have the potential to allow ecological researchers to evaluate mass algal movements in the field. Results from Goodwin Creek demonstrate that the acoustic system is able to provide measurements of sediment concentration with high temporal resolution that track well with expected sediment transport patterns in response to discharge hydrographs.

Applied Acoustics

Computation and error analysis of discharge for the Lake Michigan Diversion Project in Illinois: 1997-99 water years

Acoustic velocity meters (AVM's) and acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP's) were used to measure streamflow at four streamflow-gaging stations in the Chicago River system. The streamflow data were used to compute discharge and to determine the uncertainty in the computed annual mean discharge at each station for the Lake Michigan Diversion Project in Illinois. Descriptions of the instrumentation at each station, stage-area and index-velocity ratings, and methods utilized for computing discharge and estimating missing record are given. Daily mean and annual mean discharges were computed for each station for 1997-99 water years (WY's). A water year is defined as the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends and which includes 9 of the 12 months. Thus, the year ending September 30, 1999, is called the 1999 water year. A first-order error analysis was applied to acoustic velocity meter (AVM) data, stage-area, and index-velocity ratings at each streamflow-gaging station. The error analysis results indicate that the uncertainty is sensitive to the value of uncertainty associated with acoustic Doppler cur-rent profiler (ADCP) discharge measurement data. At the Chicago River at Columbus Drive at Chicago, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty, expressed as a standard deviation of the average annual discharge, ranged from 13 to 18 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas total uncertainty ranged from 55 to 69 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was included. At the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal at Romeoville, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty ranged from 18 to 20 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas it ranged from 64 to 68 ft3/s when it was included. At the Calumet River below O'Brien Lock and Dam at Chicago, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty ranged from 13 to 22 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas it ranged from 35 to 53 ft3/s when it was included. At the North Shore Channel at Wilmette, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, when the record was entirely estimated, the uncertainty ranged from 8 to 12 ft3/s when the ADCP uncertainty was not included, and from 16 to 17 ft3/s when it was included. For the 2000 WY, the estimated uncertainty was 8.6 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty is not included and 12.5 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was included.

Illinois

A novel framework to predict relative habitat selection in aquatic systems: Applying machine learning and resource selection functions to acoustic telemetry data from multiple shark species

Resource selection functions (RSFs) have been widely applied to animal tracking data to examine relative habitat selection and to help guide management and conservation strategies. While readily used in terrestrial ecology, RSFs have yet to be extensively used within marine systems. As acoustic telemetry continues to be a pervasive approach within marine environments, incorporation of RSFs can provide new insights to help prioritize habitat protection and restoration to meet conservation goals. To overcome statistical hurdles and achieve high prediction accuracy, machine learning algorithms could be paired with RSFs to predict relative habitat selection for a species within and even outside the monitoring range of acoustic receiver arrays, making this a valuable tool for marine ecologists and resource managers. Here, we apply RSFs using machine learning to an acoustic telemetry dataset of four shark species to explore and predict species-specific habitat selection within a marine protected area. In addition, we also apply this RSF-machine learning approach to investigate predator-prey relationships by comparing and averaging tiger shark relative selection values with the relative selection values derived for eight potential prey-species. We provide methodological considerations along with a framework and flexible approach to apply RSFs with machine learning algorithms to acoustic telemetry data and suggest marine ecologists and resource managers consider adopting such tools to help guide both conservation and management strategies.

Buck Island Reef National Monument, St Croix

Sediment acoustic index method for computing continuous suspended-sediment concentrations

Suspended-sediment characteristics can be computed using acoustic indices derived from acoustic Doppler velocity meter (ADVM) backscatter data. The sediment acoustic index method applied in these types of studies can be used to more accurately and cost-effectively provide time-series estimates of suspended-sediment concentration and load, which is essential for informed solutions to many sediment-related environmental, engineering, and agricultural concerns. Advantages of this approach over other sediment surrogate methods include: (1) better representation of cross-sectional conditions from large measurement volumes, compared to other surrogate instruments that measure data at a single point; (2) high temporal resolution of collected data; (3) data integrity when biofouling is present; and (4) less rating curve hysteresis compared to streamflow as a surrogate. An additional advantage of this technique is the potential expansion of monitoring suspended-sediment concentrations at sites with existing ADVMs used in streamflow velocity monitoring. This report provides much-needed standard techniques for sediment acoustic index methods to help ensure accurate and comparable documented results. A sediment acoustic index gage is used to collect continuous acoustic backscatter data, using an ADVM deployed in a fixed location, which are related to results from discrete suspended-sediment samples. The raw ADVM backscatter data are adjusted for variables affecting backscatter other than the sediment concentration to compute the sediment-corrected backscatter ( SCB ) and sediment attenuation coefficient ( SAC ). The sediment acoustic index rating (rating) is then developed by relating the sediment characteristics from the periodic samples to the SCB and (or) SAC and other explanatory variables in a site-specific, instrument-specific, simple or multiple linear regression model. The rating is reviewed and checked to ensure the technique has been applied appropriately. This review includes an assessment of the theoretical soundness, the adequacy of the model calibration dataset, and the quality of the regression model and regression diagnostics. The rating can then be applied to the acoustic surrogates and other explanatory variables to obtain continuous records of computed suspended-sediment concentration. The estimates of suspended-sediment concentration can then be paired with streamflow data, if available, to compute continuous records of suspended-sediment load. Once developed, sediment acoustic index ratings must be validated with additional suspended-sediment samples, beyond the period of record used in the rating development, to verify that the regression model continues to adequately represent sediment conditions within the stream. Changes in ADVM configuration or installation, or replacement with another ADVM, may require development of a new rating. The best practices described in this report can be used to develop continuous estimates of suspended-sediment concentration and load using sediment acoustic surrogates to enable more informed and accurate responses to diverse sedimentation issues.

Techniques and Methods

Advanced distributed acoustic sensing vertical seismic profile imaging of an Alaska North Slope gas hydrate field

Gas hydrates are found in significant quantities on the North Slope of Alaska in subpermafrost sand units and intermixed in lower portions of permafrost within the hydrate stability window. While conventional surface seismic data and established imaging methods can indicate the presence of gas hydrate reservoirs, producing high-resolution images of (seismically) thin layers remains challenging due to the preferential attenuation of the higher-frequency data components. An alternative strategy is to use distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) involving cementing optical fibers into boreholes to measure seismic wavefield energy closer to the strata of interest using vertical seismic profiling (VSP). DAS VSP imaging takes advantage of the shorter travel paths and reduced attenuation to generate higher-resolution near-well images. We illustrate these benefits on a DAS VSP data set acquired at the Hydrate-01 stratigraphic test well located in the Prudhoe Bay Unit of Alaska where significant gas hydrate deposits have been detected in two subpermafrost sand layers that are intended for long-duration production testing. Our DAS data preprocessing workflow effectively isolates the upgoing compressional-wave (P-wave) reflections required for subsurface acoustic imaging. After applying three-dimensional (3-D) tomography to improve the quality of the 3-D migration velocity model, we use 3-D reverse-time migration (RTM) to develop high-quality images of the two target sands and minor near-well faulting. We validate our RTM images through highly accurate well-ties with previously acquired petrophysical log data. This study demonstrates that combining 3-D RTM imaging with DAS VSP data provides significant value to gas hydrate and similar projects, and it suggests that more advanced inversion approaches such as (elastic) least-squares RTM could recover higher-resolution and more quantitative estimates of subsurface reflectivity, which would be valuable for refining the understanding of gas hydrate systems.

Alaska

Application of Acoustic and Optic Methods for Estimating Suspended-Solids Concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, Florida

Acoustic and optic methods were applied to estimate suspended-solids concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, southeastern Florida. Acoustic Doppler velocity meters were installed at the North Fork, Speedy Point, and Steele Point sites within the estuary. These sites provide varying flow, salinity, water-quality, and channel cross-sectional characteristics. The monitoring site at Steele Point was not used in the analyses because repeated instrument relocations (due to bridge construction) prevented a sufficient number of samples from being collected at the various locations. Acoustic and optic instruments were installed to collect water velocity, acoustic backscatter strength (ABS), and turbidity data that were used to assess the feasibility of estimating suspended-solids concentrations in the estuary. Other data collected at the monitoring sites include tidal stage, salinity, temperature, and periodic discharge measurements. Regression analyses were used to determine the relations of suspended-solids concentration to ABS and suspended-solids concentration to turbidity at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. For samples used in regression analyses, measured suspended-solids concentrations at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites ranged from 3 to 37 milligrams per liter, and organic content ranged from 50 to 83 percent. Corresponding salinity for these samples ranged from 0.12 to 22.7 parts per thousand, and corresponding temperature ranged from 19.4 to 31.8 ?C. Relations determined using this technique are site specific and only describe suspended-solids concentrations at locations where data were collected. The suspended-solids concentration to ABS relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.63 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The suspended-solids concentration to turbidity relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.73 and 0.89 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The adequacy of the empirical equations seems to be limited by the number and distribution of suspended-solids samples collected throughout the expected concentration range at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Additionally, the ABS relations for both sites seem to overestimate at the low end and underestimate at the high end of the concentration range. Based on the sensitivity analysis, temperature had a greater effect than salinity on estimated suspended-solids concentrations. Temperature also appeared to affect ABS data, perhaps by changing the absorptive and reflective characteristics of the suspended material. Salinity and temperature had no observed effects on the turbidity relation at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Estimates of suspended-solids concentrations using ABS data were less 'erratic' than estimates using turbidity data. Combining ABS and turbidity data into one equation did not improve the accuracy of results, and therefore, was not considered.

Scientific Investigations Report

Mapping 2-D bedload rates throughout a sand-bed river reach from high-resolution acoustical surveys of migrating bedforms

This paper introduces a method for determining spatially-distributed, 2-D bedload rates using repeat, high-resolution surveys of the bed topography. As opposed to existing methods, bedform parameters and bedload rates are computed from bed elevation profiles interpolated along the local bedform velocities. The bedform velocity fields are computed applying Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry, initially developed for surface velocity measurements, to pairs of successive Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The bathymetry data are interpolated along the direction of each bedform velocity and the mean height of the closest bedform is computed. The dune shape factor is also evaluated along each bedform direction of travel. The local bedload fluxes can be computed by multiplying the bedform velocity by its mean height averaged over the successive two DEMs, and they can be time-averaged over a series of DEM pairs. This method is applied to a high-resolution acoustical survey of an approximately 300 m long by 40 m wide reach of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon upstream from Diamond Creek, USA. The repeat period was about 6–10 min and bed elevation was interpolated every 0.25 m. The obtained results provide insight to the spatial and temporal variability of bedload rates, bedform parameters and bedload fluxes through cross-sections. The method can be applied to other repeated acoustical surveys of river reaches provided that the space and time resolutions are high enough to capture the local movement of bedforms.

Arizona

Structure of the California Coast Ranges and San Andreas Fault at SAFOD from seismic waveform inversion and reflection imaging

[1] A seismic reflection and refraction survey across the San Andreas Fault (SAF) near Parkfield provides a detailed characterization of crustal structure across the location of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD). Steep-dip prestack migration and frequency domain acoustic waveform tomography were applied to obtain highly resolved images of the upper 5 km of the crust for 15 km on either side of the SAF. The resulting velocity model constrains the top of the Salinian granite with great detail. Steep-dip reflection seismic images show several strong-amplitude vertical reflectors in the uppermost crust near SAFOD that define an ∼2-km-wide zone comprising the main SAF and two or more local faults. Another prominent subvertical reflector at 2–4 km depth ∼9 km to the northeast of the SAF marks the boundary between the Franciscan terrane and the Great Valley Sequence. A deep seismic section of low resolution shows several reflectors in the Salinian crust west of the SAF. Two horizontal reflectors around 10 km depth correlate with strains of seismicity observed along-strike of the SAF. They represent midcrustal shear zones partially decoupling the ductile lower crust from the brittle upper crust. The deepest reflections from ∼25 km depth are interpreted as crust-mantle boundary.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Estimating occupancy from autonomous recording unit data in the presence of misclassifications and detection heterogeneity

1. Autonomous Recording Units (ARUs) are now widely used to survey communities of species. These surveys generate spatially and temporally replicated counts of unmarked animals, but such data typically include false negatives and misclassified detections, both of which may vary across sites in proportion to abundance. These data challenges can bias estimates of occupancy, and the typical approach of verifying individual detections is expensive. 2. We developed a Bayesian implementation of a two-species, false-positive N-mixture model for estimating occupancy from ARU data or other counts of unmarked animals that does not require manual verification. The model accounts for species misclassification and abundance-induced detection heterogeneity, as well as false negatives. To evaluate this model, we simulated 200 data sets for each of 29 scenarios, including scenarios in which misclassifications outnumbered correct classifications for rare species. We also applied the model to acoustic surveys of bats conducted on Fort Carson Army Post and Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Colorado, USA. 3. In the simulation study, bias, coverage, and root mean square error for occupancy estimates obtained from the two-species false-positive N-mixture model were superior to metrics obtained from two competing two-species false-positive occupancy models. Across 29 scenarios, absolute bias was consistently low (range: -0.03–0.07), while coverage averaged 93% (range: 74%–98%). For alternative occupancy models, absolute bias was often high (range: -0.36–0.39), and coverage averaged from 47%–65%. Although our model included an abundance parameter, abundance estimates were not reliable. For two species of Myotis bats, we estimated that 1%–5% of field-recorded detections were misclassified. Estimated occupancy (0.91 and 0.76) was lower than naïve estimates (1.00 and 0.94). Competing occupancy models implausibly estimated local occupancy of 0.00 at sites with numerous detections. 4. Our two-species, false-positive N-mixture model is significant because it accounts for detection heterogeneity and improves occupancy estimates without expensive manual verification of detections. Our field application indicated that misclassifications were not common, yet affected occupancy inferences. Given that ARUs are increasingly used to survey a broad range of taxa, such an occupancy model could be widely useful.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Fracture process zone in granite

In uniaxial compression tests performed on Aue granite cores (diameter 50 mm, length 100 mm), a steel loading plate was used to induce the formation of a discrete shear fracture. A zone of distributed microcracks surrounds the tip of the propagating fracture. This process zone is imaged by locating acoustic emission events using 12 piezoceramic sensors attached to the samples. Propagation velocity of the process zone is varied by using the rate of acoustic emissions to control the applied axial force. The resulting velocities range from 2 mm/s in displacement-controlled tests to 2 μm/s in tests controlled by acoustic emission rate. Wave velocities and amplitudes are monitored during fault formation. P waves transmitted through the approaching process zone show a drop in amplitude of 26 dB, and ultrasonic velocities are reduced by 10%. The width of the process zone is ∼9 times the grain diameter inferred from acoustic data but is only 2 times the grain size from optical crack inspection. The process zone of fast propagating fractures is wider than for slow ones. The density of microcracks and acoustic emissions increases approaching the main fracture. Shear displacement scales linearly with fracture length. Fault plane solutions from acoustic events show similar orientation of nodal planes on both sides of the shear fracture. The ratio of the process zone width to the fault length in Aue granite ranges from 0.01 to 0.1 inferred from crack data and acoustic emissions, respectively. The fracture surface energy is estimated from microstructure analysis to be ∼2 J. A lower bound estimate for the energy dissipated by acoustic events is 0.1 J.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Use of classification trees to apportion single echo detections to species: Application to the pelagic fish community of Lake Superior

Acoustic methods are used to estimate the density of pelagic fish in large lakes with results of midwater trawling used to assign species composition. Apportionment in lakes having mixed species can be challenging because only a small fraction of the water sampled acoustically is sampled with trawl gear. Here we describe a new method where single echo detections (SEDs) are assigned to species based on classification tree models developed from catch data that separate species based on fish size and the spatial habitats they occupy. During the summer of 2011, we conducted a spatially-balanced lake-wide acoustic and midwater trawl survey of Lake Superior. A total of 51 sites in four bathymetric depth strata (0–30 m, 30–100 m, 100–200 m, and >200 m) were sampled. We developed classification tree models for each stratum and found fish length was the most important variable for separating species. To apply these trees to the acoustic data, we needed to identify a target strength to length (TS-to-L) relationship appropriate for all abundant Lake Superior pelagic species. We tested performance of 7 general (i.e., multi-species) relationships derived from three published studies. The best-performing relationship was identified by comparing predicted and observed catch compositions using a second independent Lake Superior data set. Once identified, the relationship was used to predict lengths of SEDs from the lake-wide survey, and the classification tree models were used to assign each SED to a species. Exotic rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) were the most common species at bathymetric depths <100 m with their population estimated at 755 million (3.4 kt). Kiyi (Coregonus kiyi) were the most abundant species at depths >100 m (384 million; 6.0 kt). Cisco (Coregonus artedi) were widely distributed over all strata with their population estimated at 182 million (44 kt). The apportionment method we describe should be transferable to other large lakes provided fish are not tightly aggregated, and an appropriate TS-to-L relationship for abundant pelagic fish species can be determined.

Lake Superior

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California