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Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington

Ups and downs in planetary science

The field of planetary science as it developed during the lifetimes of Gene and Carolyn Shoemaker has sustained a period of exciting growth. Surveying the skies for planet-crossing asteroids and comets and studying the results of their impact upon the planets, especially the Earth, was for Gene and Carolyn an intense and satisfying quest for knowledge. It all started when Gene envisioned man going to the Moon, especially himself. After that, one thing led to another: the study of nuclear craters and a comparison with Meteor Crater, Arizona; the Apollo project and a succession of unmanned space missions to the inner and outer planets; an awareness of cratering throughout our solar system; the search for near-Earth asteroids and comets; a study of ancient craters in Australia; and the impact of Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter. The new paradigm of impact cratering as a cause for mass extinction and the opening of space for the development of new life forms have been causes to champion.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, puzzles, and opportunities for volcano science

The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano’s largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was documented in detail, yielding new insights into large caldera-rift eruptions; the geometry of a shallow magma storage-transport system and its interaction with rift zone tectonics; mechanisms of basaltic tephra-producing explosions; caldera collapse mechanics; and the dynamics of fissure eruptions and high-volume lava flows. Insights are broadly applicable to a range of volcanic systems and should reduce risk from future eruptions. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be required to fully leverage the diversity of monitoring data to address many of the most important outstanding questions.

Hawai‘i

The role of giant impacts in planet formation

Planets are expected to conclude their growth through a series of giant impacts: energetic, global events that significantly alter planetary composition and evolution. Computer models and theory have elucidated the diverse outcomes of giant impacts in detail, improving our ability to interpret collision conditions from observations of their remnants. However, many open questions remain, as even the formation of the Moon—a widely suspected giant-impact product for which we have the most information—is still debated. We review giant-impact theory, the diverse nature of giant-impact outcomes, and the governing physical processes. We discuss the importance of computer simulations, informed by experiments, for accurately modeling the impact process. Finally, we outline how the application of probability theory and computational advancements can assist in inferring collision histories from observations, and we identify promising opportunities for advancing giant-impact theory in the future. Giant impacts exhibit diverse possible outcomes leading to changes in planetary mass, composition, and thermal history depending on the conditions. Improvements to computer simulation methodologies and new laboratory experiments provide critical insights into the detailed outcomes of giant impacts. When colliding planets are similar in size, they can merge or escape one another with roughly equal probability, but with different effects on their resulting masses, densities, and orbits. Different sequences of giant impacts can produce similar planets, encouraging the use of probability theory to evaluate distinct formation hypothesis.

Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Science

Magnetic storms and geoelectric hazards

Magnetic storms induce geoelectric fields at Earth's surface that can interfere with grounded long-line systems. The September 1859 storm disrupted global telegraph operations, the March 1989 storm caused a blackout in Canada and interfered with electric-power-transmission systems in the United States, and other storms have had related impacts. The geographic and temporal dependence of geoelectric fields are functions of both geomagnetic variation and local surface impedance, which differ considerably across different geological regions. These dependencies can be mapped across the contiguous United States by combining magnetotelluric impedance tensors with ground magnetometer time series. This review illustrates such mapping for the 1989 storm and shows that power-system interference was experienced where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric fields were intense. Statistical analyses indicate that storms comparable to that of March 1989 occur roughly once every four solar cycles. Ongoing developments in numerical modeling and real-time monitoring are anticipated to enable prediction of geoelectric hazards. ▪ Magnetic storms can induced electric fields in the solid Earth that interfere with electric-power-transmission systems. ▪ Geoelectric hazards depend on the storm-time geomagnetic disturbance and the electrical conductivity structure of Earth. ▪ Historically, impacts on telecommunication and power-transmission systems in the United States have been concentrated in the East and Midwest. ▪ The future occurrence of a magnetic superstorm could cause widespread disruption of electric-power-transmission systems.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Conservation paleobiology: Leveraging knowledge of the past to inform conservation and restoration

Humans now play a major role in altering Earth and its biota. Finding ways to ameliorate human impacts on biodiversity and to sustain and restore the ecosystem services on which we depend is a grand scientific and societal challenge. Conservation paleobiology is an emerging discipline that uses geohistorical data to meet these challenges by developing and testing models of how biota respond to environmental stressors. Here we ( a ) describe how the discipline has already provided insights about biotic responses to key environmental stressors, ( b ) outline research aimed at disentangling the effects of multiple stressors, ( c ) provide examples of deliverables for managers and policy makers, and ( d ) identify methodological advances in geohistorical analysis that will foster the next major breakthroughs in conservation outcomes. We highlight cases for which exclusive reliance on observations of living biota may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions about the nature and magnitude of biotic change, vulnerability, and resilience.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

The anatomy and lethality of the Siberian Traps large igneous province

Emplacement of the Siberian Traps large igneous province (LIP) around 252 Ma coincided with the most profound environmental disruption of the past 500 million years. The enormous volume of the Siberian Traps, its ability to generate greenhouse gases and other volatiles, and a temporal coincidence with extinction all suggest a causal link. Patterns of marine and terrestrial extinction/recovery are consistent with environmental stresses potentially triggered by the Siberian Traps. However, the nature of causal links between the LIP and mass extinction remains enigmatic. Understanding the origins, anatomy, and forcing potential of the Siberian Traps LIP and the spatiotemporal patterns of resulting stresses represents a critical counterpart to high-resolution fossil and proxy records of Permian–Triassic environmental and biotic shifts. This review provides a summary of recent advances and key questions regarding the Siberian Traps in an effort to illuminate what combination of factors made the Siberian Traps a uniquely deadly LIP. Large igneous provinces such as the Siberian Traps are capable of triggering global environmental destabilization. Greenhouse gases generated by Siberian Traps magmatism played a major role in driving the climate changes that triggered the end-Permian mass extinction. The end-Permian extinction fundamentally altered the evolutionary trajectory of Earth's biosphere, creating ecological space for many of the organisms seen today. Determining the timing and patterns of end-Permian marine and terrestrial mortality and recovery and the timing and character of Siberian Traps magmatism is key in understanding the causal link between magmatism and extinction. Understanding the cause(s) of past extinction events informs hypotheses about current and future environmental destabilization.

Siberia

Hydrogeomorphic effects of explosive volcanic eruptions on drainage basins

Explosive eruptions can severely disturb landscapes downwind or downstream of volcanoes by damaging vegetation and depositing large volumes of erodible fragmental material. As a result, fluxes of water and sediment in affected drainage basins can increase dramatically. System-disturbing processes associated with explosive eruptions include tephra fall, pyroclastic density currents, debris avalanches, and lahars—processes that have greater impacts on water and sediment discharges than lava-flow emplacement. Geo-morphic responses to such disturbances can extend far downstream, persist for decades, and be hazardous. The severity of disturbances to a drainage basin is a function of the specific volcanic process acting, as well as distance from the volcano and magnitude of the eruption. Postdisturbance unit-area sediment yields are among the world's highest; such yields commonly result in abundant redeposition of sand and gravel in distal river reaches, which causes severe channel aggradation and instability. Response to volcanic disturbance can result in socioeconomic consequences more damaging than the direct impacts of the eruption itself.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

The fascinating and complex dynamics of geyser eruptions

Geysers episodically erupt liquid and vapor. Despite two centuries of scientific study, basic questions persist—why do geysers exist? What determines eruption intervals, durations, and heights? What initiates eruptions? Through monitoring eruption intervals, analyzing geophysical data, taking measurements within geyser conduits, performing numerical simulations, and constructing laboratory models, some of these questions have been addressed. Geysers are uncommon because they require a combination of abundant water recharge, magmatism, and rhyolite flows to supply heat and silica, and large fractures and cavities overlain by low-permeability materials to trap rising multiphase and multicomponent fluids. Eruptions are driven by the conversion of thermal to kinetic energy during decompression. Larger and deeper cavities permit larger eruptions and promote regularity by isolating water from weather variations. The ejection velocity may be limited by the speed of sound of the liquid + vapor mixture.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Tectonic evolution of the Central Andean Plateau and implications for the growth of plateaus

Current end-member models for the geodynamic evolution of orogenic plateaus predict ( a ) slow and steady rise during crustal shortening and ablative subduction (i.e., continuous removal) of the lower lithosphere or ( b ) rapid surface uplift following shortening, which is associated with punctuated removal of dense lower lithosphere and/or lower crustal flow. This review integrates results from recent studies of the modern lithospheric structure, geologic evolution, and surface uplift history of the Central Andean Plateau to evaluate the geodynamic processes involved in forming it. Comparison of the timing, magnitude, and distribution of shortening and surface uplift, in combination with other geologic evidence, highlights the pulsed nature of plateau growth. We discuss specific regions and time periods that show evidence for end-member geodynamic processes, including middle–late Miocene surface uplift of the southern Eastern Cordillera and Altiplano associated with shortening and ablative subduction, latest Oligocene–early Miocene and late Miocene–early Pliocene punctuated removal of dense lower lithosphere in the Eastern Cordillera and Altiplano, and late Miocene–early Pliocene crustal flow in the central and northern Altiplano.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Strain accumulation in western United States

This review is principally concerned with recent geodetic strain measurements in western United States undertaken by the US Geological Survey as part of the earthquake studies program and, as a consequence, is heavily biased toward the author's own publications. Most of the publications reporting crustal-strain measurements in western United States prior to about 1968 have been compiled in one volume (National Geodetic Survey 1973), and more recent work (with complete bibliographies) is summarized in three successive quadrennial reports to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (Meade 1971, Savage 1975, Thatcher 1979b). The following conventions are employed in this paper: Strain, a dimensionless quantity, is reported in units of 10 6 Extension is taken as positive. To distinguish between engineering and tensor shear strain, we denote the former by γ and quote the units as μr ad, whereas the latter is denoted by e and given the units of μ strain. Uncertainties in all cases are quoted as ± one standard deviation.

California

Acid Rain

Acid deposition, or acid rain as it is more commonly referred to, has become a widely publicized environmental issue in the U.S. over the past decade. The term usually conjures up images of fish kills, dying forests, "dead" lakes, and damage to monuments and other historic artifacts. The primary cause of acid deposition is emission of S0 2 and NO x to the atmosphere during the combustion of fossil fuels. Oxidation of these compounds in the atmosphere forms strong acids - H 2 SO 4 and HNO 3 - which are returned to the Earth in rain, snow, fog, cloud water, and as dry deposition. Although acid deposition has only recently been recognized as an environmental problem in the U.S., it is not a new phenomenon (Cogbill & Likens 1974). As early as the middle of the 17th century in England, the deleterious effects of industrial emissions on plants, animals, and humans, and the atmospheric transport of pollutants between England and France had become issues of concern (Evelyn 1661, Graunt 1662). It is interesting that well over three hundred years ago in England, recommendations were made to move industry outside of towns and build higher chimneys to spread the pollution into "distant parts." Increasing the height of smokestacks has helped alleviate local problems, but has exacerbated others. In the U.S. the height of the tallest smokestack has more than doubled, and the average height of smokestacks has tripled since the 1950s (Patrick et al 1981). This trend occurred in most industrialized nations during the 20th century and has had the effect of transforming acid rain from a local urban problem into a problem of global scale.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

How the continents deform: The evidence from tectonic geodesy

Space geodesy now provides quantitative maps of the surface velocity field within tectonically active regions, supplying constraints on the spatial distribution of deformation, the forces that drive it, and the brittle and ductile properties of continental lithosphere. Deformation is usefully described as relative motions among elastic blocks and is block-like because major faults are weaker than adjacent intact crust. Despite similarities, continental block kinematics differs from global plate tectonics: blocks are much smaller, typically ∼100–1000 km in size; departures from block rigidity are sometimes measurable; and blocks evolve over ∼1–10 Ma timescales, particularly near their often geometrically irregular boundaries. Quantitatively relating deformation to the forces that drive it requires simplifying assumptions about the strength distribution in the lithosphere. If brittle/elastic crust is strongest, interactions among blocks control the deformation. If ductile lithosphere is the stronger, its flow properties determine the surface deformation, and a continuum approach is preferable.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812

Continental North America's greatest earthquake sequence struck on the western frontier of the United States. The frontier was not then California but the valley of the continent's greatest river, the Mississippi, and the sequence was the New Madrid earthquakes of the winter of 1811–1812. Their described impacts on the land and the river were so dramatic as to produce widespread modern disbelief. However, geological, geophysical, and historical research, carried out mostly in the past two decades, has verified much in the historical accounts. The sequence included at least six (possibly nine) events of estimated moment magnitude M ≥ 7 and two of M ≃ 8. The faulting was in the intruded crust of a failed intracontinental rift, beneath the saturated alluvium of the river valley, and its violent shaking resulted in massive and extensive liquefaction. The largest earthquakes ruptured at least six (and possibly more than seven) intersecting fault segments, one of which broke the surface as a thrust fault that disrupted the bed of the Mississippi River in at least 2 (and possibly four) places.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee