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Development and use of mathematical models and software frameworks for integrated analysis of agricultural systems and associated water use impacts

The development of appropriate water management strategies requires, in part, a methodology for quantifying and evaluating the impact of water policy decisions on regional stakeholders. In this work, we describe the framework we are developing to enhance the body of resources available to policy makers, farmers, and other community members in their e orts to understand, quantify, and assess the often competing objectives water consumers have with respect to usage. The foundation for the framework is the construction of a simulation-based optimization software tool using two existing software packages. In particular, we couple a robust optimization software suite (DAKOTA) with the USGS MF-OWHM water management simulation tool to provide a flexible software environment that will enable the evaluation of one or multiple (possibly competing) user-defined (or stakeholder) objectives. We introduce the individual software components and outline the communication strategy we defined for the coupled development. We present numerical results for case studies related to crop portfolio management with several defined objectives. The objectives are not optimally satisfied for any single user class, demonstrating the capability of the software tool to aid in the evaluation of a variety of competing interests.

AIMS Agriculture and Food

Understanding the potential dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus by migratory wildfowl

We analysed wildfowl movements between 2006-2009, including 228 birds from 19 species, part of a larger international programme (see Figure 1) coordinated by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations aimed at understanding if there are temporal or spatial relationships between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and movements of migratory wildfowl, the first large scale data set available for such an analysis.

Argos Forum

The Nitrogen Footprint Tool network: A multi-institution program to reduce nitrogen pollution

Anthropogenic sources of reactive nitrogen have local and global impacts on air and water quality and detrimental effects on human and ecosystem health. This paper uses the nitrogen footprint tool (NFT) to determine the amount of nitrogen (N) released as a result of institutional consumption. The sectors accounted for include food (consumption and upstream production), energy, transportation, fertilizer, research animals, and agricultural research. The NFT is then used for scenario analysis to manage and track reductions, which are driven by the consumption behaviors of both the institution itself and its constituent individuals. In this paper, the first seven completed institution nitrogen footprint results are presented. The institution NFT network aims to develop footprints for many institutions to encourage widespread upper-level management strategies that will create significant reductions in reactive nitrogen released to the environment. Energy use and food purchases are the two largest sectors contributing to institution nitrogen footprints. Ongoing efforts by institutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also help to reduce the nitrogen footprint, but the impact of food production on nitrogen pollution has not been directly addressed by the higher-ed sustainability community. The NFT Network found that institutions could reduce their nitrogen footprints by optimizing food purchasing to reduce consumption of animal products and minimize food waste, as well as reducing dependence on fossil fuels for energy.

Sustainability

Managing the livestock– Wildlife interface on rangelands

On rangelands the livestock–wildlife interface is mostly characterized by management actions aimed at controlling problems associated with competition, disease, and depredation. Wildlife communities (especially the large vertebrate species) are typically incompatible with agricultural development because the opportunity costs of wildlife conservation are unaffordable except in arid and semi-arid regions. Ecological factors including the provision of supplementary food and water for livestock, together with the persecution of large predators, result in livestock replacing wildlife at biomass densities far exceeding those of indigenous ungulates. Diseases are difficult to eradicate from free-ranging wildlife populations and so veterinary controls usually focus on separating commercial livestock herds from wildlife. Persecution of large carnivores due to their depredation of livestock has caused the virtual eradication of apex predators from most rangelands. However, recent research points to a broad range of solutions to reduce conflict at the livestock–wildlife interface. Conserving wildlife bolsters the adaptive capacity of a rangeland by providing stakeholders with options for dealing with environmental change. This is contingent upon local communities being empowered to benefit directly from their wildlife resources within a management framework that integrates land-use sectors at the landscape scale. As rangelands undergo irreversible changes caused by species invasions and climate forcings, the future perspective favors a proactive shift in attitude towards the livestock–wildlife interface, from problem control to asset management.

Book chapter

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics

Spring migration of waterfowl in the Northern Hemisphere: a management and conservation perspective

Spring migration is a key part of the annual cycle for waterfowl populations in the northern hemisphere, due to its temporal proximity to the breeding season and because resources may be limited at one or more staging sites. Research based on field observations during spring lags behind other periods of the year, despite the potential for fitness consequences through diminished survival or cross-seasonal effects of conditions experienced during migration. Consequently, conservation strategies for waterfowl on spring migration are often only refined versions of practices used during autumn and winter. Here we discuss the current state of knowledge of habitat requirements for waterfowl at their spring migratory sites and the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that lead to variability in those requirements. The provision of plant foods has become the main conservation strategy during spring because of the birds’ energy requirements at this time, not only to fuel migration but to facilitate early clutch formation on arrival at the breeding grounds. Although energy sources are important to migrants, there is little evidence on the extent to which the availability of carbohydrate-based food is limiting for many migratory waterfowl populations. Such limitation is relatively unlikely among populations that exploit agricultural grain during migration (e.g. arctic-nesting geese), suggesting that conservation strategies for these populations may be misplaced. In general, however, we found few cases in which an ecological understanding of spring-migrating waterfowl was sufficient to indicate true resource limitation during migration, and still fewer cases where conservation efforts ameliorated these limitations. We propose a framework that aims to address knowledge gaps and apply empirical research results to conservation strategies based on documented limitations and associated fitness impacts on migrating waterfowl. Such a strategy would improve allocation of scarce conservation resources during spring migration and greatly improve ecological understanding of migratory waterfowl and their habitats in the northern hemisphere.

Wildfowl

Seasonal cultivated and fallow cropland mapping using MODIS-based automated cropland classification algorithm

Increasing drought occurrences and growing populations demand accurate, routine, and consistent cultivated and fallow cropland products to enable water and food security analysis. The overarching goal of this research was to develop and test automated cropland classification algorithm (ACCA) that provide accurate, consistent, and repeatable information on seasonal cultivated as well as seasonal fallow cropland extents and areas based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. Seasonal ACCA development process involves writing series of iterative decision tree codes to separate cultivated and fallow croplands from noncroplands, aiming to accurately mirror reliable reference data sources. A pixel-by-pixel accuracy assessment when compared with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data showed, on average, a producer’s accuracy of 93% and a user’s accuracy of 85% across all months. Further, ACCA-derived cropland maps agreed well with the USDA Farm Service Agency crop acreage-reported data for both cultivated and fallow croplands with R-square values over 0.7 and field surveys with an accuracy of ≥95% for cultivated croplands and ≥76% for fallow croplands. Our results demonstrated the ability of ACCA to generate cropland products, such as cultivated and fallow cropland extents and areas, accurately, automatically, and repeatedly throughout the growing season.

California

The Global food‐energy‐water nexus

Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the “food‐energy‐water nexus.” The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food‐energy‐water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy.

Reviews of Geophysics

Multiple agricultural cropland products of South Asia developed using Landsat-8 30 m and MODIS 250 m data using machine learning on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud and spectral matching techniques (SMTs) in support of food and water security

Cropland products are of great importance in water and food security assessments, especially in South Asia, which is home to nearly 2 billion people and 230 million hectares of net cropland area. In South Asia, croplands account for about 90% of all human water use. Cropland extent, cropping intensity, crop watering methods, and crop types are important factors that have a bearing on the quantity, quality, and location of production. Currently, cropland products are produced using mainly coarse-resolution (250–1000 m) remote sensing data. As multiple cropland products are needed to address food and water security challenges, our study was aimed at producing three distinct products that would be useful overall in South Asia. The first of these, Product 1, was meant to assess irrigated versus rainfed croplands in South Asia using Landsat 30 m data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The second, Product 2, was tailored for major crop types using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m data. The third, Product 3, was designed for cropping intensity (single, double, and triple cropping) using MODIS 250 m data. For the kharif season (the main cropping season in South Asia, Jun–Oct), 10 major crops (5 irrigated crops: rice, soybean, maize, sugarcane, cotton; and 5 rainfed crops: pulses, rice, sorghum, millet, groundnut) were mapped. For the rabi season (post-rainy season, Nov–Feb), five major crops (three irrigated crops: rice, wheat, maize; and two rainfed crops: chickpea, pulses) were mapped. The irrigated versus rainfed 30 m product showed an overall accuracy of 79.8% with the irrigated cropland class providing a producer’s accuracy of 79% and the rainfed cropland class 74%. The overall accuracy demonstrated by the cropping intensity product was 85.3% with the producer’s accuracies of 88%, 85%, and 67% for single, double, and triple cropping, respectively. Crop types were mapped to accuracy levels ranging from 72% to 97%. A comparison of the crop-type area statistics with national statistics explained 63–98% variability. The study produced multiple-cropland products that are crucial for food and water security assessments, modeling, mapping, and monitoring using multiple-satellite sensor big-data, and Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithms by coding, processing, and computing on the GEE cloud.

GIScience & Remote Sensing

Evaluating treatment methods to control the egg masses of the crop pest Pomacea maculata

Pomacea maculata is an invasive aquatic apple snail species that poses serious ecological, agricultural, and public health threats across the southeastern United States. Its spread, particularly in Louisiana, has heavily impacted rice and crayfish farming, an industry producing over 90% of U.S. crayfish and valued at more than $250 million annually. The snail damages seedling rice, clogs crayfish traps, reduces yields, and increases labor for farmers. Moreover, it is a known host of rat lungworm ( Angiostrongylus cantonensis ), a parasite harmful to humans, making its presence in food production environments a public health concern. Controlling P. maculata is challenging due to its life cycle and reproductive strategies. The species lays large clutches of eggs above the waterline, where traditional aquatic molluscicides are ineffective. This study aimed to assess low-cost, practical methods for reducing egg hatch rates, specifically water submersion and vegetable oil application, on newly laid (day 1) and older (day 7) egg clutches. Laboratory trials on 125 egg clutches revealed that water submersion significantly reduced hatch rates and the development of dormant hatchlings, regardless of clutch age. Oil treatment only reduced hatch rates for day 1 clutches and had no effect on dormant hatchlings. These results suggest that water treatment is more broadly effective and feasible for farmers to apply without needing to determine egg age when applied on a routine, weekly basis. While oil showed limited use, its time-sensitive application limits practicality in the field. Water-based approaches offer a scalable solution for reducing P. maculata populations, but do not completely eliminate the potential for hatching and spreading. Without comprehensive control strategies targeting all life stages, the apple snail’s spread and associated impacts are expected to worsen, underscoring the urgency of continued management innovation.

Florida

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty-five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Conterminous United States

Broad-scale impacts of an invasive native predator on a sensitive native prey species within the shifting avian community of the North American Great Basin

Human enterprise has modified ecosystem processes through direct and indirect alteration of native predators’ distribution and abundance. For example, human activities subsidize food, water, and shelter availability to generalist predators whose subsequent increased abundance impacts lower trophic-level prey species. The common raven (Corvus corax; hereafter, raven) is an avian predator, native to the northern hemisphere, that can become invasive when subsidized. Raven populations are increasing at unprecedented rates in many regions globally. Information regarding scale of impact and potential ecological thresholds is needed to guide conservation actions aimed at reducing adverse effects on sensitive prey. We conducted a multi-part analysis to investigate broad-scale variation in raven densities and impacts on nesting greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems in western North America. We estimated raven densities using 16,000 point surveys over 10 years within the Great Basin, USA, and examined associations with anthropogenic and environmental covariates. Average density was 0.54 ravens km-2 (95% CI: 0.42–0.70), with higher densities at lower relative elevations comprising increased agriculture and development. We then used a reduced dataset to estimate the effect of raven density on sage-grouse nest survival (nests = 737). We identified negative impacts to nesting sage-grouse, especially where raven density exceeded ~ 0.40 km-2, a potential ecological threshold. We mapped regions where elevated raven densities were predicted to depress sage-grouse population growth in the absence of compensatory demographic responses from other sage-grouse life-history stages, and found ~ 64% of sage-grouse breeding areas were adversely impacted by high raven density.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data

Aim Our scientific understanding of the extent and distribution of mangrove forests of the world is inadequate. The available global mangrove databases, compiled using disparate geospatial data sources and national statistics, need to be improved. Here, we mapped the status and distributions of global mangroves using recently available Global Land Survey (GLS) data and the Landsat archive. Methods We interpreted approximately 1000 Landsat scenes using hybrid supervised and unsupervised digital image classification techniques. Each image was normalized for variation in solar angle and earth–sun distance by converting the digital number values to the top-of-the-atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and databases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. Results were validated using existing GIS data and the published literature to map ‘true mangroves’. Results The total area of mangroves in the year 2000 was 137,760 km2 in 118 countries and territories in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Approximately 75% of world's mangroves are found in just 15 countries, and only 6.9% are protected under the existing protected areas network (IUCN I-IV). Our study confirms earlier findings that the biogeographic distribution of mangroves is generally confined to the tropical and subtropical regions and the largest percentage of mangroves is found between 5° N and 5° S latitude. Main conclusions We report that the remaining area of mangrove forest in the world is less than previously thought. Our estimate is 12.3% smaller than the most recent estimate by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. We present the most comprehensive, globally consistent and highest resolution (30 m) global mangrove database ever created. We developed and used better mapping techniques and data sources and mapped mangroves with better spatial and thematic details than previous studies.

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Water-quality characteristics of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay at the Fall Line, Virginia, July 1988 through June 1993

Development in the Chesapeake Bay region has adversely affected the water quality of the Bay. The general degradation in the Bay has resulted in the decline of commercial fishing industries and has reduced the area of aquatic vegetation that provides food and habitat for fish and shellfish. In order to assess the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing the effects of excess nutrients and suspended solids on Chesapeake Bay, it is necessary to quantify the loads of these constituents into the Bay, and to evaluate the trends in water quality. This report presents the results of a study funded by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Programs and the U.S. Geological Survey, to monitor and estimate loads of selected nutrients and suspended solids discharged to Chesapeake Bay from five major tributaries in Virginia. The water-quality data and load estimates provided in this report also will be used to calibrate computer models of Chesapeake Bay. Water-quality constituents were monitored in the James and Rappahannock Rivers over a 5-year period, and in the Pamunkey, Appomattox, and Mattaponi Rivers over a 4-year period. Water-quality samples were collected from July 1, 1988 through June 30, 1993, for the James and Rappahannock Rivers; from July 1, 1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Pamunkey and Appomattox Rivers; and from September 1,1989 through June 30, 1993, for the Mattaponi River. Water-quality samples were collected on a scheduled basis and during stormflow to cover a range in discharge conditions. Monitore water-quality constituents, for which loads were estimated include total suspended solids (residue, total at 105° Celsius), dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica. Organic nitrogen concentrations were calculated from measurements of ammonia and total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and organic nitrogen loads were estimated using these calculations. Other selected water-quality constituents were monitored for which loads were not calculated. Daily mean load estimates of each constituent were computed by use of a seven-parameter log-linear regression model that uses variables of time, discharge, and seasonality. Concentration of total nitrogen ranged from less than 0.14 to 3.41 mg/L (milligrams per liter), with both extreme values occurring at the Rappahannock River. Concentration of total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from less than 0.1 mg/L in the James, Rappahannock, and Appomattox Rivers to 3.0 mg/L in the James River. Organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen at all stations except the Rappahannock River, where nitrite plus-nitrate nitrogen was predominant, and organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the measured total Kjeldahl nitrogen at all stations, ranging from 0.01 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 2.86 mg/L in the James River. Concentration of dissolved ammonia nitrogen ranged from 0.01 mg/L in the Pamunkey River to 0.54 mg/L at the James River. Concentration of nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen ranged from 0.02 to 1.05 mg/L in the James River. Concentrations of total phosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in the Rappahannock and the Mattaponi Rivers to 1.4 mg/L in the James River. Dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from less than 0.01 mg/L in all five rivers to 0.51 mg/L in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a concentration of less than 1 mg/L in all five rivers to 844 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Total organic carbon ranged from 1.1 mg/L in the Appomattox River to 110 mg/L in the Rappahannock River. Dissolved silica ranged from 2.4 mg/L in the James River to 18 mg/L in the Appomattox River. The James and Rappahannock Rivers had high median concentrations and large ranges in concentrations for most constituents, probably because of a greater number of point and nonpoint sources of nutrients and suspended solids, and differences in land use when compared with the other basins. A significantly higher median concentration and greater range of dissolved orthophosphorus generally occurred at the James River than in all other rivers, which primarily is due to the greater number of point sources, such as municipal waste-water treatment plants. The Rappahannock River had significantly higher median concentrations and greater ranges of dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen and total nitrogen than other rivers, probably derived from agricultural sources. Total organic carbon was highest in the Mattaponi and Pamunkey River Basins that contain expanses of wetlands. The Appomattox River had the highest concentration of dissolved silica. The median monthly load of total nitrogen ranged from 16,500 kg (kilogram) in the Mattaponi River to 371,000 kg in the James River. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 12,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 205,500 kg, also in the James River. Organic nitrogen comprised the majority of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen load in all five rivers, ranging from a median monthly load of 11,251 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,299,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved ammonia nitrogen was 1,130 kg in the Mattaponi River and was as much as 21,050 kg in the James River, whereas nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen ranged from a median monthly load of 4,065 kg in the Mattaponi River to 156,500 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of total phosphorus ranged from 1,670 kg in the Mattaponi River to 61,600 kg in the James River, whereas the median monthly load of dissolved orthophosphorus ranged from 350 kg in the Mattaponi River to 25,900 kg in the James River. Total suspended solids ranged from a median monthly load of 241,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 20,050,000 kg in the James River. Total organic carbon ranged from a median monthly load of 167,000 kg in the Mattaponi River to 2,100,000 kg in the James River. The median monthly load of dissolved silica ranged from 209,500 kg in the Mattaponi River to 3,625,000 kg in the James River. In general, annual loads for complete years of data collection were greatest at the James River for all constituents, probably because of the much higher discharge, greater basin size, and higher rates of runoff. Yields, or computations of loads per square mile of basin area, were generally highest at the Rappahannock River for total suspended solids, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite-plusnitrate nitrogen, and total nitrogen. Dissolved orthophosphorus was the only constituent with a yield consistently greater at the James River. Yields of total phosphorus were highest for the James and Rappahannock River basins, whereas yields of dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and dissolved silica were similar for all five river basins. Quality-assurance analyses that compare the results of the Virginia Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services and the U.S. Geological Survey Laboratory indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the laboratories for several constituents. Differences between laboratories were found to be caused by differences in analytical reporting limits, differences in analytical technique, or a slight bias at both laboratories. Quality-assurance data were used to address analytical technique problems, and to qualify final concentrations and loads.

Virginia