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Disentangling geomorphic equifinality in sediment and hydrologic connectivity through the analyses of landscape drivers of hysteresis

Sources, transport mechanisms and pathways of fine sediment in river systems are dependent on a multitude of climatic, geomorphic and anthropogenic factors, resulting in geomorphic equifinality, in which it is difficult to parse how different landscape processes affect sediment transport across different spatiotemporal scales. The objectives of this study are to 1) provide a conceptual model to consider how differing spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources, both upland and in-channel, can result in equifinal sediment transport outcomes, and 2) utilize analytical methods with widely available environmental datasets to infer sediment processes from stream gaging data. Hysteretic patterns of observed storm events were classified based on their direction and timing of peak sediment concentration, relative to streamflow, using records from 35 U.S. Geological Survey stream gages in the period between 2007 and 2023 within two different physiographic regions: the Mid-Atlantic Delaware River Basin (DRB) and the Midwestern Illinois River Basin (IRB). The DRB contains mixed forest, urban, suburban and agricultural watersheds over diverse topography, and the IRB is primarily an intensively managed agricultural watershed on flat terrain. We use principal component analysis and linear discriminant analysis to infer regional hydrologic relations with turbidity dynamics, and to identify the primary hydrologic and land surface characteristics most effective at distinguishing between hysteretic classes in each region. These analyses reveal underlying regional relations in storm event hydrodynamics and landscape characteristics that contribute to varying patterns in sediment dynamics. Incorporating these sediment dynamic relations with spatial distributions and hydrologic timing of sediment sources could help to improve process understanding and predictive capability of fine sediment transport in watersheds.

Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York,↗

Chemical quality of base flow in 18 selected streams in the upper Susquehanna River basin, New York

The base-flow and runoff components of total streamflow at four selected sites in the upper Susquehanna River Basin in New York were calculated through hydrograph-separation techniques from long-term (1941-93) discharge records. Base flow was found to constitute more than 60 percent of the total annual flow of each stream. Base-flow samples were then collected at 18 stream sites several times during 2001 to define the chemical quality of base flow. The concentrations of selected common ions, nutrients, and pesticides were plotted in relation to the amount of agricultural land and carbonate bedrock in the drainage basin upstream of each site. Sites were selected at locations distant from and unaffected by development and urban areas. Twelve of the sites were again sampled in November 2001 for pesticide analysis. The predominant cations detected in the samples were calcium, magnesium, and sodium; the major anions were chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate. The predominant nutrient was nitrate. Higher nitrate concentrations in the winter samples than in the summer samples are attributed to the seasonal decrease in plant growth and microbial activity in the streams during the winter, which allows nitrate to persist in the stream water. Lower nitrate concentrations in the summer samples probably result from nitrogen uptake by vegetation and microbial activity in the streams. Base-flow samples from the agricultural, carbonate-rich northern part of the study area had higher concentrations of most inorganic chemical constituents than those from the forested, noncarbonate (shale, siltstone, and sandstone) central and southern parts. The highest nitrate concentrations were in samples from subbasins dominated by agricultural land, and the lowest were in subbasins dominated by forest. The concentrations in samples from subbasins with forested as well as agricultural land were intermediate. Six pesticides were detected in samples from 10 of the 12 sites. All were herbicides. The highest concentrations of pesticides, and the most frequent pesticide detections, were in samples from agricultural subbasins and large main-stem subbasins with mixed land use and mixed bedrock geology. A correlation was indicated between land use and concentrations of atrazine and deethylatrazine. The concentrations of all six compounds were at least an order of magnitude lower than New York State and Federal water-quality standards. Ground water from four production wells in the villages of Afton, Sidney, Unadilla, and Otego was analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to indicate the approximate age of the water in these wells and the potential for induced infiltration of river water. The water at two of these wells is probably between 26 and 50 years old; the ages of water at the other two wells could not be reliably estimated because of CFC contamination from a nonatmospheric source. The two wells for which CFC analysis gave reliable results (Afton and Otego) probably do not induce infiltration of river water into the aquifer.

New York↗

Influence of recharge basins on the hydrology of Nassau and Suffolk Counties, Long Island, New York

An investigation of recharge basins on Long Island was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Nassau County Department of Public Works, Suffolk County Department of Environmental Control, and Suffolk County Water Authority. The major objectives of the study were to (1) catalog basic physical data on the recharge basins in use on Long Island, (2) measure quality and quantity of precipitation and inflow, (3) measure infiltration rates at selected recharge basins, and (4) evaluate regional effects of recharge basins on the hydrologic system of Long Island. The area of study consists of Nassau and Suffolk Counties -- about 1,370 square miles -- in eastern Long Island, N.Y. Recharge basins, numbering more than 2,100 on Long Island in 1969, are open pits in moderately to highly permeable sand and gravel deposits. These pits are used to dispose of storm runoff from residential, industrial, and commercial areas, and from highways, by infiltration of the water through the bottom and sides of the basins. The hydrology of three recharge basins on Long Island -- Westbury, Syosset, and Deer Park basins -- was studied. The precipitation-inflow relation showed that the average percentages of precipitation flowing into each basin were roughly equivalent to the average percentages of impervious areas in the total drainage areas of the basins. Average percentages of precipitation flowing into the basins as direct runoff were 12 percent at the Westbury basin, 10 percent at the Syosset basin, and 7 percent at the Deer Park basin. Numerous open-bottomed storm-water catch basins at Syosset and Deer Park reduced the proportion of inflow to those basins, as compared with the Westbury basin, which has only a few open-bottomed catch basins. Inflow hydrographs for each basin typify the usual urban runoff hydrograph -- steeply rising and falling limbs, sharp peaks, and short time bases. Unit hydrographs for the Westbury and the Syosset basins are not expected to change; however, the unit hydrograph for the Deer Park basin is expected to broaden somewhat as a result of additional future house construction within the drainage area. Infiltration rates averaged 0.9 fph (feet per hour) for 63 storms between July 1967 and May 1970 at the Westbury recharge basin, 0.8 fph for 22 storms from July 1969 to September 1970 at the Syosset recharge basin, and 0.2 fph for 24 storms from March to September 1970 at the Deer Park recharge basin. Low infiltration rates at Deer Park resulted mainly from (1) a high percentage of eroded silt, clay, and organic debris washed in from construction sites in the drainage area, which partly filled the interstices of the natural deposits, and (2) a lack of a well-developed plant-root system on the floor of the younger basin, which would have kept the soil zone more permeable. The apparent rate of movement of storm water through the unsaturated zone below each basin averaged 5.5 fph at Westbury, 3.7 fph at Syosset, and 3.1 fph at Deer Park. The rates of movement for storms during the warm months (April through October) were slightly higher than average, probably because the recharging water was warmer than it was during the rest of the year, and therefore, was slightly less viscous. On the average, a 1-inch rainfall resulted in a peak rise of the water table directly below each basin of 0.5 foot; a 2-inch rainfall resulted in a peak rise of about 2 feet. The mound commonly dissipated within 1 to 4 days at Westbury, 7 days to more than 15 days at Syosset, and 1 to 3 days at Deer Park, depending on the magnitude of the peak buildup. Average annual ground-water recharge was estimated to be 6.4 acre-feet at the Westbury recharge basin, 10.3 acre-feet at the Syosset recharge basin, and 29.6 acre-feet at the Deer Park recharge basin. Chemical composition of precipitation at Westbury, Syosset, and Deer Park drainage areas was similar:

Water Supply Paper↗

Genetic and environmental factors associated with survival of a rare songbird in a fragmented urban landscape

The coastal Cactus Wren ( Campylorhynchus brunneicapillus ) persists in small and fragmented populations throughout southern California that are subject to genetic drift and inbreeding. We combined individual banding and resighting data and genotyped individuals at 22 microsatellite loci to assess whether heterozygosity was associated with survival across three regional Cactus Wren populations on conserved lands in Orange and San Diego Counties between 2009 and 2020. Using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models (CJS) to analyze the 5-year capture histories of 528 individual wrens, we found that age class (hatch year or after hatch year) was the strongest predictor of survival. Individual heterozygosity and precipitation also had positive effects on survival, with survival up to 2 times higher in the most heterozygous individuals compared to the least and up to 1.5 times higher in high precipitation years versus drought years. Multi-locus heterozygosity was significantly correlated across loci, suggesting that inbreeding depression is likely driving the association between survival and heterozygosity. Study results support that genetic rescue efforts that reduce inbreeding have the potential to improve fitness and mitigate further loss of genetic variation in managed populations.

California↗

Federal land management, carbon sequestration, and climate change in the Southeastern U.S.: a case study with fort benning

Land use activities can have a major impact on the temporal trendsandspatialpatternsofregionalland-atmosphereexchange of carbon. Federal lands generally have substantially different land management strategies from surrounding areas, and the carbon consequences have rarely been quantified and assessed. Using the Fort Benning Installation as a case study, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate and compare ecosystem carbon sequestration between the U.S. Army's Fort Benning and surrounding areas from 1992 to 2050. Our results indicate that the military installation sequestered more carbon than surrounding areas from 1992 to 2007 (76.7 vs 18.5 g C m -2 yr -1 ), and is projected to continue sequestering more carbon from 2008 to 2050 (75.7 vs 25.6 g C m -2 yr -1 ), mostly because of the proactive management approaches adopted on military training lands. Our results suggest that federal lands might play a positive and important role in sequestering and conserving atmospheric carbon because some anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., urbanization, forest harvesting, and agriculture) can be minimized or prevented on federal lands

Georgia↗

Living with wildfire in Teton County, Wyoming: 2021 data report

Wildfire affects many types of communities and is a particular concern for communities in the wildland urban interface (WUI), such as those of Teton County, Wyoming. The core intent of this project was to provide evidence to support the Teton Area Wildfire Protection Coalition (TAWPC) and affiliated organizations in their wildfire mitigation and education programming. This report analyzes existing wildfire risk data collected in fall 2020 and pairs it with social data collected in the winter and spring of 2021, in order to better understand residents’ knowledge, experiences, and perceptions about wildfire risk. This greater understanding will help TAWPC focus its programs and outreach and ultimately promote increased mitigation and reduced wildfire risk in Teton County. The results of the wildfire risk assessment, covering 725 private residential properties in the study area, suggest that 89% face high, very high, or extreme risk of wildfire. In comparison, only 41% of residents estimated their risk of wildfire to be high, very high, or extreme. This suggests a “gap” between rapid assessment and survey estimates.

Wyoming↗

Ecosystem history of southern and central Biscayne Bay: Summary report on sediment core analyses

During the last century, the environs of Biscayne Bay have been greatly affected by anthropogenic alteration through urbanization of the Miami/Dade County area. The sources, timing, delivery, and quality of freshwater flow into the Bay have been changed by construction of a complex canal system that controls movement of water throughout south Florida. Changes in shoreline and sub-aquatic vegetation and marine organisms have been observed and changes in water delivery are believed to be the cause. Current restoration goals are attempting to restore natural flow of fresh water into Biscayne and Florida Bays and to restore the natural fauna and flora, but first we need to determine pre-alteration baseline conditions in order to establish targets and performance measures for restoration. This research is part of an ongoing study designed to address the needs of the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Project (BBCW) of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). By establishing the natural patterns of temporal change in salinity, water quality, vegetation, and benthic fauna in Biscayne Bay and the nearby wetlands over the last 100- 500 years the USGS, in collaboration with our partners, will provide the data necessary to set realistic targets to achieve the BBCW Project goals. Six cores from three sites in Biscayne Bay were collected in April 2002 for multidisciplinary multi-proxy analyses. This report details the results of these analyses and compares the 2002 cores to cores collected in 1997. The following are our significant findings to date: The salinity of central Biscayne Bay has become increasingly marine and increasingly stable over the last 100 years. At No Name Bank, prior to approximately 1915, the inter-decadal and decadal salinity fluctuations appear to have been greater than after 1915 when salinities stabilized at that site. Continental shelf/open marine influence on the sites has increased during the 20th century. There is no indication of inter-decadal salinity extremes or periods of hypersalinity. Freshwater and mesohaline salinities have had a minor influence on No Name bank throughout the time of deposition. At Featherbed Bank, the influence is reduced to mesohaline salinities. Card Bank has experienced relatively large swings in salinity over multi-decadal and centennial timescales, compared to central Biscayne Bay, but marine influence at the site has increased over the last century. Indications of regional scale patterns have been found, especially in the shell chemistry data and the pollen assemblages. These regional patterns indicate that the changes are not site specific and may not be limited to Biscayne Bay. Sub-aquatic vegetation has undergone bay-wide patterns of change over the last 200-500 years, which includes expansion prior to 1900 and declines during the last century in central Biscayne Bay. Thalassia appears to have increased at all three core sites sometime between 1550 and 1750 AD. A decline in Thalassia appears to have occurred after 1950 at No Name Bank and slightly earlier in the 20th century at Featherbed Bank. Card Bank does not appear to have experienced any declines in vegetation on an inter-decadal scale during the 20th century. Molluscan faunal abundance and diversity have undergone significant changes in central Biscayne Bay. Indicators of increased organic-rich sediments at No Name occur between 1869 to 1888 and between the 1930’s to 1975. These changes may correlate to human activities (settlement, population growth). These findings represent a first step towards the project’s goal to reconstruct the history of Biscayne Bay and they provide us with a working model to be tested at other sites. It is clear from our findings that Biscayne Bay has been a dynamic environment over the last 500 years, with natural changes occurring in salinity and benthic habitats. However, several significant changes have occurred in the 20th century: 1) increased stabilization of marine salinities; 2) declines in seagrass in central Biscayne Bay; 3) dramatic changes in molluscan abundance and diversity in central Biscayne Bay. The question remains - how do we better differentiate natural cycles of change from anthropogenic change within these observed trends? The preliminary implications from our research are that changes in salinity and benthic habitats have occurred naturally in Biscayne Bay on inter-decadal to centennial scales, perhaps due to climatic changes, changes in sea level, bank migrations, or a combination of factors. However, further work needs to be done to determine which components of change in the 20th century are human-induced and which are natural. By examining the historical records preserved in the sediments of Biscayne Bay, we can provide restoration trust agencies with the information necessary to set realistic targets and performance measures for Biscayne Bay.

Florida↗

Origins and delineation of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer and changes in the distribution of saltwater in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Intrusion of saltwater into parts of the shallow karst Biscayne aquifer is a major concern for the 2.5 million residents of Miami-Dade County that rely on this aquifer as their primary drinking water supply. Saltwater intrusion of this aquifer began when the Everglades were drained to provide dry land for urban development and agriculture. The reduction in water levels caused by this drainage, combined with periodic droughts, allowed saltwater to flow inland along the base of the aquifer and to seep directly into the aquifer from the canals. The approximate inland extent of saltwater was last mapped in 1995. An examination of the inland extent of saltwater and the sources of saltwater in the aquifer was completed during 2008–2011 by using (1) all available salinity information, (2) time-series electromagnetic induction log datasets from 35 wells, (3) time-domain electromagnetic soundings collected at 79 locations, (4) a helicopter electromagnetic survey done during 2001 that was processed, calibrated, and published during the study, (5) cores and geophysical logs collected from 8 sites for stratigraphic analysis, (6) 8 new water-quality monitoring wells, and (7) analyses of 69 geochemical samples. The results of the study indicate that as of 2011 approximately 1,200 square kilometers (km 2 ) of the mainland part of the Biscayne aquifer were intruded by saltwater. The saltwater front was mapped farther inland than it was in 1995 in eight areas totaling about 24.1 km 2 . In many of these areas, analyses indicated that saltwater had encroached along the base of the aquifer. The saltwater front was mapped closer to the coast than it was in 1995 in four areas totaling approximately 6.2 km 2 . The changes in the mapped extent of saltwater resulted from improved spatial information, actual movement of the saltwater front, or a combination of both. Salinity monitoring in some of the canals in Miami-Dade County between 1988 and 2010 indicated influxes of saltwater, with maximum salinities ranging from 1.4 to 32 practical salinity units (PSU) upstream of the salinity control structures. Time-series electromagnetic induction log data from monitoring wells G–3601, G–3608, and G–3701, located adjacent to the Biscayne, Snapper Creek, and Black Creek Canals, respectively, and upstream of the salinity control structures, indicated shallow influxes of conductive water in the aquifer that likely resulted from leakage of brackish water or saltwater from these canals. The determination that saltwater influxes were recent is supported by the similarity in the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope composition in samples from the Snapper Creek Canal, 1.6 kilometers (km) inland of a salinity control structure, and in samples from well G–3608, which is adjacent to the canal, as well as by the relative ages of the water sampled from well G–3608 and other wells open to the aquifer below the saltwater interface. Historical and recent salinity information from the Card Sound Road Canal, monitoring well FKS8 located adjacent to the canal, and the 2001 helicopter electromagnetic survey indicated that saltwater may occasionally leak from this canal as far inland as 15 km. This leakage may be prevented or reduced by a salinity control structure that was installed in May 2010. Saltwater also may have leaked from the Princeton Canal. Results of geochemical sampling and analysis indicate a close correspondence between droughts and saltwater intrusion. Tritium/helium-3 apparent (piston-flow) ages determined from samples of saltwater with chloride concentrations of about 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) or greater generally corresponded to a period during which droughts were frequent. Comparison of average daily air temperatures in Miami, Florida, with estimates of recharge temperatures determined from the dissolved gas composition in water samples indicated that saltwater likely entered the aquifer in April or early May when water levels are typically at their lowest during the year. Conversely, most of the samples of freshwater with chloride concentrations less than about 1,000 mg/L indicate recharge temperatures corresponding to air temperatures in mid to late May when rainfall and water levels in the aquifer increase, and the piston-flow ages of these samples correspond to wet years. The piston-flow ages of freshwater samples generally were younger than ages of samples of saltwater. Saltwater samples that were depleted in boron, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate, and enriched in calcium relative to the concentrations theoretically produced by freshwater/seawater mixing, generally were found to be associated with areas where saltwater had recently intruded. The calcium to (bicarbonate + sulfate) molar ratios (Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 )) of these samples generally were greater than 1. Saltwater samples from some of the monitoring wells, however, indicated little or no enrichment or depletion of these ions relative to the theoretical freshwater/seawater mixing line, and the Ca/(HCO 3 +SO 4 ) molar ratios of these samples generally were less than 1. Results indicated that aquifer materials are approaching equilibrium with seawater at these well locations.

Florida↗

Sediment contamination of residential streams in the metropolitan Kansas City area, USA: Part I. distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and pesticide-related compounds

This is the first part of a study that evaluates the influence of nonpoint-source contaminants on the sediment quality of five streams within the metropolitan Kansas City area, central United States. Surficial sediment was collected in 2003 from 29 sites along five streams with watersheds that extend from the core of the metropolitan area to its development fringe. Sediment was analyzed for 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 3 common polychlorinated biphenyl mixtures (Aroclors), and 25 pesticide-related compounds of eight chemical classes. Multiple PAHs were detected at more than 50% of the sites, and concentrations of total PAHs ranged from 290 to 82,150 μg/kg (dry weight). The concentration and frequency of detection of PAHs increased with increasing urbanization of the residential watersheds. Four- and five-ring PAH compounds predominated the PAH composition (73–100%), especially fluoranthene and pyrene. The PAH composition profiles along with the diagnostic isomer ratios [e.g., anthracene/(anthracene + phenanthrene), 0.16 ± 0.03; fluoranthene/(fluoranthene + pyrene), 0.55 ± 0.01)] indicate that pyrogenic sources (i.e., coal-tar-related operations or materials and traffic-related particles) may be common PAH contributors to these residential streams. Historical-use organochlorine insecticides and their degradates dominated the occurrences of pesticide-related compounds, with chlordane and dieldrin detected in over or nearly 50% of the samples. The occurrence of these historical organic compounds was associated with past urban applications, which may continue to be nonpoint sources replenishing local streams. Concentrations of low molecular weight (LMW; two or three rings) and high molecular weight (HMW; four to six rings) PAHs covaried along individual streams but showed dissimilar distribution patterns between the streams, while the historical pesticide-related compounds generally increased in concentration downstream. Correlations were noted between LMW and HMW PAHs for most of the streams and between historical-use organochlorine compounds and total organic carbon and clay content of sediments for one of the streams (Brush Creek). Stormwater runoff transport modes are proposed to describe how the two groups of contaminants migrated and distributed in the streambed.

Kansas, Missouri↗

Long-term changes in nitrate conditions over the 20th century in two Midwestern Corn Belt streams

Long-term changes in nitrate concentration and flux between the middle of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century were estimated for the Des Moines River and the Middle Illinois River, two Midwestern Corn Belt streams, using a novel weighted regression approach that is able to detect subtle changes in solute transport behavior over time. The results show that the largest changes in flow-normalized concentration and flux occurred between 1960 and 1980 in both streams, with smaller or negligible changes between 1980 and 2004. Contrasting patterns were observed between (1) nitrate export linked to non-point sources, explicitly runoff of synthetic fertilizer or other surface sources and (2) nitrate export presumably associated with point sources such as urban wastewater or confined livestock feeding facilities, with each of these modes of transport important under different domains of streamflow. Surface runoff was estimated to be consistently most important under high-flow conditions during the spring in both rivers. Nitrate export may also have been considerable in the Des Moines River even under some conditions during the winter when flows are generally lower, suggesting the influence of point sources during this time. Similar results were shown for the Middle Illinois River, which is subject to significant influence of wastewater from the Chicago area, where elevated nitrate concentrations were associated with at the lowest flows during the winter and fall. By modeling concentration directly, this study highlights the complex relationship between concentration and streamflow that has evolved in these two basins over the last 50 years. This approach provides insights about changing conditions that only become observable when stationarity in the relationship between concentration and streamflow is not assumed.

Illinois, Iowa↗

Understanding knowledge and perceptions of bats among residents of Fort Collins, Colorado

As regional urbanization increases in Colorado, so do interactions between humans and wildlife. Where previous habitat has been reduced due to urbanization and development, a few bat species that easily adapt to new environments now roost in homes and buildings (Kunz and Reynolds, 2003). Bats frequently serve as reservoirs of disease that have potential health consequences for humans and other mammals (Messenger and others, 2003). As bat use of buildings becomes more frequent, the incidences of bat/human contact and the risk of spreading disease also increase. In Colorado, rabies is most common in the big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) Pape and others, 1999), the most ubiquitous species of urban-dwelling bat in the United States (Barbour and Davis, 1969) and the most common species submitted for rabies testing in Colorado (Pape and others, 1999). An in-depth knowledge of the big brown bat - including its ecology, habitat and movements, and aspects of disease transmission - and of its interactions with humans is essential for making informed management decisions regarding this species. To balance the competing priorities of species preservation and public safety, natural resource managers and public health professionals must be able to accurately estimate citizens' knowledge, perceptions, and perceived risks regarding the bat species that use human dwellings and harbor diseases potentially dangerous to humans. A recently completed five-year ecological study (2001-2005) on bats inhabiting buildings in Fort Collins, Colo., has provided much information on the basic epidemiology of rabies and on the ecology of the local bat population (Davis, Rudd, and Bowen, 2007; Ellison and others, 2007; Neubaum, Douglas, and others, in press; Neubaum, O'Shea, and Wilson, 2006; Neubaum, Wilson, and O'Shea, 2007; O'Shea, Ellison, and Stanley, 2004; Pearce and O'Shea, 2007; Pearce and others, in press; Shankar and others, 2004; Shankar and others, 2005; Wimsatt and others 2005). Research investigating the human dimensions of bats and bat/rabies relationships, however, has been very limited (Gibbins and others, 2002; Liesener and others, 2006). Herein, we report the results of a study to evaluate perceptions and knowledge of bats and rabies among residents of Fort Collins, Colo. The study resulted from collaborations between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) bat ecologists of the Trust Species and Habitats branch, and social scientists of the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance branch, both of the USGS Fort Collins Science Center (FORT).

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of flood hydrographs for Georgia streams

Flood hydrographs are needed for the design of many highway drainage structures and embankments. A method for simulating these flood hydrographs at ungaged sites in Georgia is presented in this report. The O'Donnell method was used to compute unit hydrographs and lagtimes for 355 floods at 80 gaging stations. An average unit hydrograph and an average lagtime were computed for each station. These average unit hydrographs were transformed to unit hydrographs having durations of one-fourth, one-third, one-half, and three-fourths lagtime, then reduced to dimensionless terms by dividing the time by lagtime and the discharge by peak discharge. Hydrographs were simulated for these 355 floods and their widths were compared with the widths of the observed hydrographs at 50 and 75 percent of peak flow. The dimensionless hydrograph based on one-half lagtime duration provided the best fit of the observed data. Multiple-regression analysis was then used to define relations between lagtime and certain physical basin characteristics, of which drainage area and slope were found to be significant for the rural-stream equations, and drainage area, slope, and impervious area were found to be significant for the Atlanta urban-stream equation. A hydrograph can be simulated from the dimensionless hydrograph, the peak discharge of a specific recurrence interval, and the lagtime obtained from regression equations for any site with less than a 500 square mile drainage area in Georgia. For simulating hydrographs at sites with basins larger than 500 square miles, the U.S. Geological Survey computer model CONROUT can be used. This model routes streamflow from an upstream channel location to a user-defined location downstream. The product of CONROUT is a simulated discharge hydrograph for the downstream site, which has a peak discharge of a specific recurrence interval. The diffusion-analogy routing method with single linearization was used in this study.

Georgia↗

Experiments with central-limit properties of spatial samples from locally covariant random fields

When spatial samples are statistically dependent, the classical estimator of sample-mean standard deviation is well known to be inconsistent. For locally dependent samples, however, consistent estimators of sample-mean standard deviation can be constructed. The present paper investigates the sampling properties of one such estimator, designated as the tau estimator of sample-mean standard deviation. In particular, the asymptotic normality properties of standardized sample means based on tau estimators are studied in terms of computer experiments with simulated sample-mean distributions. The effects of both sample size and dependency levels among samples are examined for various value of tau (denoting the size of the spatial kernel for the estimator). The results suggest that even for small degrees of spatial dependency, the tau estimator exhibits significantly stronger normality properties than does the classical estimator of standardized sample means.

Regional Science and Urban Economics↗

Mercury in the nation's streams - Levels, trends, and implications

Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in fish to levels of concern for human health and the health of fish-eating wildlife. Mercury contamination of fish is the primary reason for issuing fish consumption advisories, which exist in every State in the Nation. Much of the mercury originates from combustion of coal and can travel long distances in the atmosphere before being deposited. This can result in mercury-contaminated fish in areas with no obvious source of mercury pollution. Three key factors determine the level of mercury contamination in fish - the amount of inorganic mercury available to an ecosystem, the conversion of inorganic mercury to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation of methylmercury through the food web. Inorganic mercury originates from both natural sources (such as volcanoes, geologic deposits of mercury, geothermal springs, and volatilization from the ocean) and anthropogenic sources (such as coal combustion, mining, and use of mercury in products and industrial processes). Humans have doubled the amount of inorganic mercury in the global atmosphere since pre-industrial times, with substantially greater increases occurring at locations closer to major urban areas. In aquatic ecosystems, some inorganic mercury is converted to methylmercury, the form that ultimately accumulates in fish. The rate of mercury methylation, thus the amount of methylmercury produced, varies greatly in time and space, and depends on numerous environmental factors, including temperature and the amounts of oxygen, organic matter, and sulfate that are present. Methylmercury enters aquatic food webs when it is taken up from water by algae and other microorganisms. Methylmercury concentrations increase with successively higher trophic levels in the food web—a process known as bioaccumulation. In general, fish at the top of the food web consume other fish and tend to accumulate the highest methylmercury concentrations. This report summarizes selected stream studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) since the late 1990s, while also drawing on scientific literature and datasets from other sources. Previous national mercury assessments by other agencies have focused largely on lakes. Although numerous studies of mercury in streams have been conducted at local and regional scales, recent USGS studies provide the most comprehensive, multimedia assessment of streams across the United States, and yield insights about the importance of watershed characteristics relative to mercury inputs. Information from other environments (lakes, wetlands, soil, atmosphere, glacial ice) also is summarized to help understand how mercury varies in space and time.

Circular↗

Using observed postconstruction peak discharges to evaluate a hydrologic and hydraulic design model, Boneyard Creek, Champaign and Urbana, Illinois

Boneyard Creek—which drains an urbanized watershed in the cities of Champaign and Urbana, Illinois, including part of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) campus—has historically been prone to flooding. Using the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM), a hydrologic and hydraulic model of Boneyard Creek was developed for the design of the projects making up the first phase of a long-term plan for flood control on Boneyard Creek, and the construction of the projects was completed in May 2003. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Cities of Champaign and Urbana and UIUC, installed and operated stream and rain gages in order to obtain data for evaluation of the design-model simulations. In this study, design-model simulations were evaluated by using observed postconstruction precipitation and peak-discharge data. Between May 2003 and September 2008, five high-flow events on Boneyard Creek satisfied the study criterion. The five events were simulated with the design model by using observed precipitation. The simulations were run with two different values of the parameter controlling the soil moisture at the beginning of the storms and two different ways of spatially distributing the precipitation, making a total of four simulation scenarios. The simulated and observed peak discharges and stages were compared at gaged locations along the Creek. The discharge at one of these locations was deemed to be critical for evaluating the design model. The uncertainty of the measured peak discharge was also estimated at the critical location with a method based on linear regression of the stage and discharge relation, an estimate of the uncertainty of the acoustic Doppler velocity meter measurements, and the uncertainty of the stage measurements. For four of the five events, the simulated peak discharges lie within the 95-percent confidence interval of the observed peak discharges at the critical location; the fifth was just outside the upper end of this interval. For two of the four simulation scenarios, the simulation results for one event at the critical location were numerically unstable in the vicinity of the discharge peak. For the remaining scenarios, the simulated peak discharges over the five events at the critical location differ from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of 7.7 and -1.5 percent, respectively. The simulated peak discharges over the four events for which all scenarios have numerically stable results at the critical location differs from the observed peak discharges (simulated minus observed) by an average of -6.8, 4.0, -5.4, and 1.5 percent, for the four scenarios, respectively. Overall, the discharge peaks simulated for this study at the critical location are approximately balanced between overprediction and underprediction and do not indicate significant model bias or inaccuracy. Additional comparisons were made by using peak stages at the critical location and two additional sites and using peak discharges at one additional site. These comparisons showed the same pattern of differences between observed and simulated values across events but varying biases depending on streamgage and measurement type (discharge or stage). Altogether, the results from this study show no clear evidence that the design model is significantly inaccurate or biased and, therefore, no clear evidence that the modeled flood-control projects in Champaign and on the University of Illinois campus have increased flood stages or discharges downstream in Urbana.

Illinois↗

Peak streamflow trends in Wisconsin and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This study characterizes hydroclimatic variability and change in peak streamflow and daily streamflow in Wisconsin from water years 1921 through 2020. Nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Wisconsin can include monotonic trends, change points, and autocorrelation. Spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and monthly precipitation, temperature, and snowfall were examined using four temporal periods. Upward trends in peak streamflow and daily streamflow were detected across the State, from around 1990 to 2020 and were likely predominantly driven by concurrent increases in precipitation and temperatures during this time. Earlier decreases in peak streamflow between the 1920s to the 1980s in the southern parts of the State were likely affected by nonclimate-related factors such as urbanization, water use, and land-use changes associated with agriculture.

Wisconsin↗

Constraints on establishment of plains cottonwood in an urban riparian preserve

Plot sampling and hydraulic modeling were combined to investigate establishment and survival of plains cottonwood along Boulder Creek, an urban stream on the Colorado Plains. We tested the hypothesis that establishment is limited to bare, moist surfaces produced by spring flooding in the current year. No cottonwood germination was observed in 1989 when peak flow was low. A moderate peak of 11.9 m 3 /s in 1990 resulted in cottonwood establishment on surfaces inundated by discharges less than 15 m 3 /s. Surviving sapling cottonwoods established before 1989 occurred on surfaces inundated by discharges of 15–31 m 3 /s and dated to years with peak flows over 15 m 3 /s. Since 1969, establishment of cottonwood has been limited to a floodplain 21 m wide. Flow regulation and channel stabilization upstream and downstream of the study area have reduced the channel movement and overbank flooding that otherwise would have created bare, moist sites suitable for cottonwood establishment across a wider area. GIS analysis of aerial photographs shows that between 1937 and 1992 the channel has not moved and forest has encroached upon formerly open areas near the channel. A terrace, 317 m wide, is now dominated by trees that can reproduce in the absence of disturbance, especially the exotic crack willow.

Colorado↗

Contemporary carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems in the Southeastern Plains of the United States

Quantifying carbon dynamics over large areas is frequently hindered by the lack of consistent, high-quality, spatially explicit land use and land cover change databases and appropriate modeling techniques. In this paper, we present a generic approach to address some of these challenges. Land cover change information in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion was derived from Landsat data acquired in 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 within 11 randomly located 20-km × 20-km sample blocks. Carbon dynamics within each of the sample blocks was simulated using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), capable of assimilating the variances and covariance of major input variables into simulations using an ensemble approach. Results indicate that urban and forest areas have been increasing, whereas agricultural land has been decreasing since 1973. Forest clear-cutting activity has intensified, more than doubling from 1973 to 2000. The Southeastern Plains has been acting as a carbon sink since 1973, with an average rate of 0.89 Mg C/ha/yr. Biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC), and harvested materials account for 56%, 34%, and 10% of the sink, respectively. However, the sink has declined continuously during the same period owing to forest aging in the northern part of the ecoregion and increased forest clear-cutting activities in the south. The relative contributions to the sink from SOC and harvested materials have increased, implying that these components deserve more study in the future. The methods developed here can be used to quantify the impacts of human management activities on the carbon cycle at landscape to global scales.

Environmental Management↗