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USGS2003

Historic range of variability in landscape structure in subalpine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Area, USA

A measure of the historic range of variability (HRV) in landscape structure is essential for evaluating current landscape patterns of Rocky Mountain coniferous forests that have been subjected to intensive timber harvest. We used a geographic information system (GIS) and FRAGSTATS to calculate key landscape metrics on two ???130,000-ha landscapes in the Greater Yellowstone Area, USA: one in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), which has been primarily shaped by natural fires, and a second in the adjacent Targhee National Forest (TNF), which has undergone intensive clearcutting for nearly 30 years. Digital maps of the current and historical landscape in YNP were developed from earlier stand age maps developed by Romme and Despain. Maps of the TNF landscape were adapted from United States Forest Service Resource Information System (RIS) data. Key landscape metrics were calculated at 20-yr intervals for YNP for the period from 1705-1995. These metrics were used to first evaluate the relative effects of small vs. large fire events on landscape structure and were then compared to similar metrics calculated for both pre- and post-harvest landscapes of the TNF. Large fires, such as those that burned in 1988, produced a structurally different landscape than did previous, smaller fires (1705-1985). The total number of patches of all types was higher after 1988 (694 vs. 340-404 before 1988), and mean patch size was reduced by almost half (186 ha vs. 319-379 ha). The amount of unburned forest was less following the 1988 fires (63% vs. 72-90% prior to 1988), yet the number of unburned patches increased by nearly an order of magnitude (230 vs. a maximum of 41 prior to 1988). Total core area and mean core area per patch decreased after 1988 relative to smaller fires (???73,700 ha vs. 87,000-110,000 ha, and 320 ha vs. 2,123 ha, respectively). Notably, only edge density was similar (17 m ha-1 after 1988) to earlier landscapes (9.8-14.2 m ha-1). Three decades of timber harvesting dramatically altered landscape structure in the TNF. Total number of patches increased threefold (1,481 after harvest vs. 437 before harvest), and mean patch size decreased by ???70% (91.3 ha vs. 309 ha). None of the post-harvest landscape metrics calculated for the TNF fell within the HRV as defined in YNP, even when the post-1988 landscape was considered. In contrast, pre-harvest TNF landscape metrics were all within, or very nearly within, the HRV for YNP While reference conditions such as those identified by this study are useful for local and regional landscape evaluation and planning, additional research is necessary to understand the consequences of changes in landscape structure for population, community, ecosystem, and landscape function.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2005

Carbon sequestration potential estimates with changes in land use and tillage practice in Ohio, USA

Soil C sequestration through changes in land use and management is one of the important strategies to mitigate the global greenhouse effect. This study was conducted to estimate C sequestration potential of the top 20 cm depth of soil for two scenarios in Ohio, USA: (1) with reforestation of both current cropland and grassland where SOC pools are less than the baseline SOC pool under current forest; (2) with the adoption of NT on all current cropland. Based on Ohio Soil Survey Characterization Database and long-term experimental data of paired conservation tillage (CT) versus no-till (NT), we specified spatial variations of current SOC pools and C sequestration potentials associated with soil taxa within each major land resource area (MLRA). For scenario I, there would be 4.56 Mha of cropland having an average SOC sequestration capacity of 1.55 kg C m −2 and 0.80 Mha of grassland with that of 1.35 kg C m −2 . Of all potential area, 73% are associated with Alfisols and 15% with Mollisols, but the achievable potential could vary significantly with individual MLRAs. Alternately, an average SOC sequestration rate of 62 g C m −2 year −1 was estimated with conversion from CT to NT for cultivated Alfisols, by which a cumulative increase of 71 Tg C resulted from reforestation of cropland could be realized in 25 years. Soils with lower antecedent C contents have higher C sequestration rates. In comparison with the results obtained at the state scale, the estimates of SOC sequestration potentials taxonomically associated with each specific MLRA may be more useful to the formulation of C credit trading programs.

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment↗

USGS2016

Evaluating detection and monitoring tools for incipient and relictual non-native ungulate populations

Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) encompasses 1,308 km2 on Hawai‘i Island. The park harbors endemic plants and animals which are threatened by a variety of invasive species. Introduced ungulates have caused sharp declines of numerous endemic species and have converted ecosystems to novel grazing systems in many cases. Local ranchers and the Territorial Government of Hawai‘i had long conducted regional ungulate control even prior to the establishment of HAVO in 1916. In 1995 the park’s hunting team began a new hunt database that allowed managers to review hunt effort and effectiveness in each management unit. Target species included feral pigs (Sus scrofa), European mouflon sheep (Ovis gmelini musimon), feral goats (Capra hircus) and wild cattle (Bos taurus). Hunters removed 1,204 feral pigs from HAVO over a 19-year period (1996‒2014). A variety of methods were employed, but trapping, snaring and ground hunts with dogs accounted for the most kills. Trapping yielded the most animals per unit effort. Hunters and volunteers removed 6,657 mouflon from HAVO; 6,601 of those were from the 468 km2 Kahuku Unit. Aerial hunts yielded the most animals followed by ground hunt methods. Hunters completed eradications of goats in several management units over an 18- year period (1997‒2014) when they removed the last 239 known individuals in HAVO primarily with aerial hunts. There have also been seven cattle and five feral dogs (Canis familiaris) removed from HAVO. Establishing benchmarks and monitoring the success of on-the-ground ungulate removal efforts can improve the efficiency of protecting and restoring native forest for high-priority watersheds and native wildlife. We tested a variety of methods to detect small populations of ungulates within HAVO and the Hō‘ili Wai study area in the high-priority watershed of Ka‘ū Forest Reserve on Hawai‘i Island. We conducted ground surveys, aerial surveys and continuous camera trap monitoring in both fence-enclosed units and unenclosed units where populations of introduced mouflon and feral pigs threatened sensitive native plants and forest bird habitats. Beginning in June 2014, twenty infrared camera traps were positioned in areas occupied by ungulates. The cameras were active for at most 198 days, and then half of the cameras were baited with oats and salt blocks for 126 days. There were a total of 1,496 observations of mouflon captured on camera, totaling 2,592 individuals: 1,020 ewes, 900 rams, 276 lambs, and 396 sheep of unknown sex. There were no detections of the illegally introduced axis deer (Axis axis). There were 11 observations of feral pigs and 109 observations of other animals (birds, rats, and other small mammals), including one detection of the federally endangered Hawaiian hawk (Buteo solitarius). Mouflon detection rates did not increase near baited cameras until three months after the initial baiting. Ground-based surveys for ungulate presence were conducted along six transects in Kahuku in October 2014. Evidence of ungulates were detected in 27.5% of plots surveyed within an unenclosed unit, while an enclosed unit had sign in only 3.6% of plots surveyed. An aerial survey by helicopter was conducted in October 2014. A total of 378 mouflon were detected during the survey: 192 in the Kahuku Paddocks, 186 in the Kahuku East unit and no mouflon were detected in the actively controlled Mauka unit. Two baseline ungulate surveys have been completed at the Hō‘ili Wai study area in the highpriority watershed of Ka‘ū Forest Reserve adjacent to Kahuku prior to the completion of an exclusionary ungulate fence. Ground-based surveys were conducted on four transects within a 4.99 km2 area on 5 August and 5–6 November 2014. In August, 20.71% of 565 plots surveyed 2 had fresh or intermediate ungulate sign. In November, 17.41% of 557 plots surveyed had fresh or intermediate ungulate sign. These surveys represent baseline levels of ungulate activity prior to management; therefore comparative inferences can be made about ungulate distribution and relative abundance, but inferences about absolute abundance cannot be made until all ungulates have been removed from the enclosed area. Additional ground-based surveys will be conducted when the fenced area has been fully enclosed, and until ungulate removals have been completed.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Retrospective analysis of seasonal ocean growth rates of two sea winter Atlantic Salmon in eastern Maine using historic scales

Substantial declines of anadromous Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar have occurred throughout its range, with many populations at the southern extent of the distribution currently extirpated or endangered. While both one sea winter (1SW) and two sea winter (2SW) spawner numbers for the North American stocks have declined since the 1950s, the decline has been most severe in 2SW spawners. The first months at sea are considered a period of high mortality. However, early ocean mortality alone cannot explain the more pronounced decline of 2SW spawners, suggesting that the second year at sea may be more critical than previously thought. Atlantic Salmon scales collected by anglers and the state agency from 1946 to 2013 from five rivers in eastern Maine were used to estimate smolt age and ocean age of returning adults. Additionally, seasonal growth rates of maiden 2SW spawners were estimated using intercirculi measurements and linear back-calculation methods. Generalized linear mixed models (Gaussian family, log link function) were used to investigate the influence of average sea surface temperature, accumulated thermal units, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation indices, smolt age, smolt length, postsmolt growth, and river of origin on growth rate during the oceanic migration of North American Atlantic Salmon. Results suggest that different factors influence salmon growth throughout their oceanic migration, and previous growth can be a strong predictor of future size. Growth was negatively impacted by the phase of the AMO, which has been linked to salmon abundance trends, in early spring following the postsmolt period. This is likely when the 1SW and 2SW stock components separate, and our results suggest that this period may be of interest in future work examining the disproportionate decline in 2SW spawners.

Maine↗

USGS2019

Seasonal home ranges and habitat selection of three elk (Cervus elaphus) herds in North Dakota

Changes in land use have resulted in range shifts of many wildlife species, including those entering novel environments, resulting in the critical need to understand their spatial ecology to inform ecosystem effects and management decisions. Dispersing elk ( Cervus elaphus ) were colonizing areas of suitable habitat in the Northern Great Plains, USA, resulting in crop depredation complaints in these areas. Although state resource managers had little information on these elk herds, limited evidence suggested temporal movements into Canada. We collected and analyzed essential information on home range and habitat selection for 3 elk herds residing in North Dakota. We captured 5 adult female elk in each study area, affixed global positioning system collars, and monitored them for 1 year (2016–2017). We estimated diel period, seasonal, and hunting season home ranges using Brownian Bridge Movement Models for each individual. We analyzed habitat selection using multinomial logit models to test for differences in use of land classes, and for departures from proportionate use based on random sampling; our predictor variables included individual elk, diel period, and season. Home ranges differed between the 3 herds, seasons, and diel period; gun and winter season home ranges were both larger than in summer, as was night when compared with day. Female elk generally restricted themselves to cover during the day and entered open areas at night and during winter months. Our results also suggest that elk in our study areas tended to seek more cover, and in the case of our Turtle Mountain study area, some cross into Canada during gun season. Our study provides a better understanding of the spatial ecology of elk in the Northern Great Plains while highlighting the need for enhanced international cooperative management efforts.

North Dakota↗

USGS2002

An ecosystem report on the Panama Canal: Monitoring the status of the forest communities and the watershed

In 1996, the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Republic of Panama's Environmental Authority, with support from the United States Agency for International Development, undertook a comprehensive program to monitor the ecosystem of the Panama Canal watershed. The goals were to establish baseline indicators for the integrity of forest communities and rivers. Based on satellite image classification and ground surveys, the 2790 km2 watershed had 1570 km2 of forest in 1997, 1080 km2 of which was in national parks and nature monuments. Most of the 490 km2 of forest not currently in protected areas lies along the west bank of the Canal, and its management status after the year 2000 turnover of the Canal from the U.S. to Panama remains uncertain. In forest plots designed to monitor forest diversity and change, a total of 963 woody plant species were identified and mapped. We estimate there are a total of 850-1000 woody species in forests of the Canal corridor. Forests of the wetter upper reaches of the watershed are distinct in species composition from the Canal corridor, and have considerably higher diversity and many unknown species. These remote areas are extensively forested, poorly explored, and harbor an estimated 1400-2200 woody species. Vertebrate monitoring programs were also initiated, focusing on species threatened by hunting and forest fragmentation. Large mammals are heavily hunted in most forests of Canal corridor, and there was clear evidence that mammal density is greatly reduced in hunted areas and that this affects seed predation and dispersal. The human population of the watershed was 113 000 in 1990, and grew by nearly 4% per year from 1980 to 1990. Much of this growth was in a small region of the watershed on the outskirts of Panama City, but even rural areas, including villages near and within national parks, grew by 2% per year. There is no sewage treatment in the watershed, and many towns have no trash collection, thus streams near large towns are heavily polluted. Analyses of sediment loads in rivers throughout the watershed did not indicate that erosion has been increasing as a result of deforestation, rather, erosion seems to be driven largely by total rainfall and heavy rainfall events that cause landslides. Still, models suggest that large-scale deforestation would increase landslide frequency, and failure to detect increases in erosion could be due to the gradual deforestation rate and the short time period over which data are available. A study of runoff showed deforestation increased the amount of water from rainfall that passed directly into streams. As a result, dry season flow was reduced in a deforested catchment relative to a forested one. Currently, the Panama Canal watershed has extensive forest areas and streams relatively unaffected by humans. But impacts of hunting and pollution near towns are clear, and the burgeoning population will exacerbate these impacts in the next few decades. Changes in policies regarding forest protection and pollution control are necessary.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗

USGS2010

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Mapping large-area landscape suitability for honey bees to assess the influence of land-use change on sustainability of national pollination services

Pollination is a critical ecosystem service affected by various drivers of land-use change, such as policies and programs aimed at land resources, market values for crop commodities, local land-management decisions, and shifts in climate. The United States is the world's most active market for pollination services by honey bees, and the Northern Great Plains provide the majority of bee colonies used to meet the Nation's annual pollination needs. Legislation requiring increased production of biofuel crops, increasing commodity prices for crops of little nutritional value for bees in the Northern Great Plains, and reductions in government programs aimed at promoting land conservation are converging to alter the regional landscape in ways that challenge beekeepers to provide adequate numbers of hives for national pollination services. We developed a spatially explicit model that identifies sites with the potential to support large apiaries based on local-scale land-cover requirements for honey bees. We produced maps of potential apiary locations for North Dakota, a leading producer of honey, based on land-cover maps representing (1) an annual time series compiled from existing operational products and (2) a realistic scenario of land change. We found that existing land-cover products lack sufficient local accuracy to monitor actual changes in landscape suitability for honey bees, but our model proved informative for evaluating effects on suitability under scenarios of land change. The scenario we implemented was aligned with current drivers of land-use change in the Northern Great Plains and highlighted the importance of conservation lands in landscapes intensively and extensively managed for crops.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2010

North American osprey populations and contaminants: Historic and contemporary perspectives

Osprey ( Pandion haliaetus ) populations were adversely affected by DDT and perhaps other contaminants in the United States and elsewhere. Reduced productivity, eggshell thinning, and high DDE concentrations in eggs were the signs associated with declining osprey populations in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The species was one of the first studied on a large scale to bring contaminant issues into focus. Although few quantitative population data were available prior to the 1960s, many osprey populations in North America were studied during the 1960s and 1970s with much learned about basic life history and biology. This article reviews the historical and current effects of contaminants on regional osprey populations. Breeding populations in many regions of North America showed post-DDT-era (1972) population increases of varying magnitudes, with many populations now appearing to stabilize at much higher numbers than initially reported in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the magnitude of regional population increases in the United States between 1981 (first Nationwide Survey, ∼8,000 pairs), when some recovery had already occurred, 1994 (second survey, ∼14,200), and 2001 (third survey, ∼16,000–19,000), or any other years, is likely not a simple response to the release from earlier contaminant effects, but a response to multi-factorial effects. This indirect “contaminant effects” measurement comparing changes (i.e., recovery) in post-DDT-era population numbers over time is probably confounded by changing human attitudes toward birds of prey (shooting, destroying nests, etc.), changing habitats, changing fish populations, and perhaps competition from other species. The species' adaptation to newly created reservoirs and its increasing use of artificial nesting structures (power poles, nesting platforms, cell towers, channel markers, offshore duck blinds, etc.) are two important factors. The timing of the initial use of artificial nesting structures, which replaced declining numbers of suitable trees at many locations, varied regionally (much later in the western United States and Mexico). Because of the increasing use of artificial nesting structures, there may be more ospreys nesting in North America now than ever before. Now, with the impact of most legacy organic contaminants (DDT, other organochlorine [OC] pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins [PCDD], polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF]) greatly reduced or eliminated, and some osprey populations showing evidence of stabilizing, the species was proposed as a Worldwide Sentinel Species for evaluating emerging contaminants. Several emerging contaminants are already being studied, such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) and perfluorinated acids and sulfonate compounds (PFC). The many advantages for continued contaminant investigations using the osprey include a good understanding of its biology and ecology, its known distribution and abundance, and its ability to habituate to humans and their activities, which permits nesting in some of the potentially most contaminated environments. It is a top predator in most ecosystems, and its nests are relatively easy to locate and study with little researcher impact on reproductive success.

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Pa↗

USGS2010

Increase in lake trout reproduction in Lake Huron following the collapse of alewife: Relief from thiamine deficiency or larval predation?

In the Great Lakes there is still uncertainty as to the population level effects of a thiamine deficiency on salmonines caused by high consumption of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus . A resurgence of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush reproduction in Lake Huron following the crash of alewife stocks between 2002 and 2004 provided an opportunity to evaluate the relative effects of this crash on reproduction through relief from either alewife mediated thiamine deficiency or alewife predation on larval lake trout relative to possible changes in the size of the lake trout spawning stock. Changes in mean lake trout egg thiamine concentration post crash at one spawning reef in Parry Sound, where mean thiamine concentration increased by almost two-fold, were consistent with diet switching from alewives to rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax , the next most abundant prey fish in Lake Huron. Although thiamine levels for lake trout collected at a second reef in Parry Sound did not change post-crash, levels both pre- and post-crash were consistent with a rainbow smelt diet. A reef specific fry emergence index was found to be positively related to reef specific egg thiamine concentration but negatively related to reef specific occurrence of EMS, a thiamine deficiency related mortality syndrome. We found little evidence for overlap between the timing of spring shoreward migration of alewives and lake trout emergence, suggesting that relief from alewife predation effects had relatively little effect on the observed increase in lake trout recruitment. Numbers of spawners in the north, north-central, and southern zones of the lake increased from 2000 onwards. Overall the abundance post-2003 was higher than from pre-2004, suggesting that spawner abundance may also have contributed to increased lake trout reproduction. However, predicted numbers of spawners and measured abundance of wild recruits in assessment gear were poorly correlated suggesting that the increase in reproduction was not totally spawner dependent and hence relief from thiamine deficiency was also likely involved. We conclude from this that eliminating the effects of an alewife diet mediated thiamine deficiency can have positive effects on lake trout reproduction but more research is required to understand the effect of spawner number and the role of spawning habitat availability.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2022

A comprehensive assessment of mangrove species and carbon stock on Pohnpei, Micronesia

Mangrove forests are the most important ecosystems on Pohnpei Island, Federated States of Micronesia, as the island communities of the central Pacific rely on the forests for many essential services including protection from sea-level rise that is occurring at a greater pace than the global average. As part of a multi-component assessment to evaluate vulnerabilities of mangrove forests on Pohnpei, mangrove forests were mapped at two points in time: 1983 and 2018. In 2018, the island had 6,426 ha of mangrove forest. Change analysis indicated a slight (0.76%) increase of mangrove area between 1983 and 2018, contrasting with global mangrove area declines. Forest structure and aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks were inventoried using a systematic sampling of field survey plots and extrapolated to the island using k-nearest neighbor and random forest species models. A gridded or wall to wall approach is suggested when possible for defining carbon stocks of a large area due to high variability seen in our data. The k-nearest neighbor model performed better than random forest models to map species dominance in these forests. Mean AGC was 167 ± 11 MgC ha -1 , which is greater than the global average of mangroves (115 ± 7 MgC ha -1 ) but within their global range (37–255 MgC ha -1 ) Kauffman et al. (2020). In 2018, Pohnpei mangroves contained over 1.07 million MgC in AGC pools. By assigning the mean AGC stock per species per area to the map, carbon stock distributions were visualized spatially, allowing future conservation efforts to be directed to carbon dense stands.

Pohnpei Island↗

USGS2015

Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

Micronesia, Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2013

Significance of headwater streams and perennial springs in ecological monitoring in Shenandoah National Park

Shenandoah National Park has been monitoring water chemistry and benthic macroinvertebrates in stream ecosystems since 1979. These monitoring efforts were designed to assess the status and trends in stream condition associated with atmospheric deposition (acid rain) and changes in forest health due to gypsy moth infestations. The primary objective of the present research was to determine whether the current long-term macroinvertebrate and water-quality monitoring program in Shenandoah National Park was failing to capture important information on the status and trends in stream condition by not sufficiently representing smaller, headwater streams. The current benthic-macroinvertebrate and water-chemistry sampling designs do not include routine collection of data from streams with contributing watershed areas smaller than 100 hectares, even though these small streams represent the overwhelming proportion of total stream length in the park. In this study, we sampled headwater sites, including headwater stream reaches (contributing watershed area approximately 100 hectares (ha) and perennial springs, in the park for aquatic macroinvertebrates and water chemistry and compared the results with current and historical data collected at long-term ecological monitoring (LTEM) sites on larger streams routinely sampled as part of ongoing monitoring efforts. The larger purpose of the study was to inform ongoing efforts by park managers to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the current aquatic monitoring program in light of other potential stressors (for example, climate change) and limited resources. Our results revealed several important findings that could influence management decisions regarding long-term monitoring of park streams. First, we found that biological indicators of stream condition at headwater sites and perennial springs generally were more indicative of lower habitat quality and were more spatially variable than those observed at sites on routinely monitored larger streams. We hypothesized that poorer stream condition observed in smaller streams was due to stream drying that occurs more frequently in headwater areas. We also found that biological and water-chemistry measures responded differently to landscape drivers. Variation in most biological endpoints was driven primarily by stream size and was only secondarily associated with bedrock geology. In contrast, water chemistry showed essentially the opposite pattern, with underlying geology explaining much of the variation and stream size being of secondary importance. Therefore, expanding the LTEM program to include headwater areas would yield substantially different biological information, whereas broad inferences regarding spatial patterns in water chemistry would probably not change. Although significant differences in community composition were observed among streams of different sizes, no taxa were unique to headwater sites. All taxa collected at the 45 headwater sites also had been collected at one or more LTEM sites during one or more years. This observation indicates that headwater sites in the park may be structured by biotic nestedness; consequently, focusing management efforts on preserving the species pool at the larger LTEM sites would likely result in the protection of most taxa parkwide. Finally, linkages (correlations) between water chemistry and biological measures of stream condition were signficantly stronger when assessed at the LTEM sites than when assessed at the springs or headwater sites, indicating that conditions at downstream sites may be better indicators of water-quality trends.

Virginia↗

USGS1969

Environmental impact of oil development in northern Alaska

It is reported that in the spring of 1969 a high official of one of the oil companies was flying over the area of oil development in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay. He is quoted as saying "If the American people could see what we are doing to their land here, they would want to abolish the use of the reciprocating engine." The last really large area of wilderness in the United States is the' Brooks Range and the Arctic Coastal Plain which stretches from that range to the Arctic Ocean. The proving of the exploratory oil wells which have been drilled on the coastal plain in the vicinity of Prudhoe Bay makes it virtually certain that this heretofore mostly unknown country will rapidly and vigorously be exposed to a variety of changes caused by the influx of men and their equipment. Even within the first four months of 1969 the whole aspect of the central part of the region has been importantly changed by the drilling programs of several large oil companies. So suddenly was this change brought about that no long-range plans have been developed either to soften the effect of such development on the natural environment or even to record the progress of these effects. Yet the absence of a plan provides an inadvertent potential advantage in that there has' been no history of increasingly firm Federal policy which, in other places, has often made it difficult to take newly conceived action in line with the increasing societal interest in environmental preservation. The lack of firm Federal policy provides here a unique opportunity for the application of new rules and investigative techniques aimed at minimizing the adverse effects on the environment while5.at the same time, not unduly hindering the development of the natural resources. But the speed with which the changes are being wrought makes it imperative that the principles applicable here to environmental protection or preservation, be enunciated immediately and that from these principles flow farsighted regulations which reflect the new interest in combining resource development with environmental protection. The present report constitutes a brief summary of the conditions existing in northern Alaska in the spring of 1969, presenting some inferences on the environmental changes which can be expected in the future and offering some specific steps which, if taken immediately and positively, could greatly ameliorate the adverse effects of rapid development in the absence of positive steps for environmental protection. In that regard, then, this report is ephemeral in character because the conditions in northern Alaska will surely change with great rapidity. Considering the"fragility and sensitivity of the ecosystems existing there, the changes can be both harsh and permanent. Therefore, whatever value lies in the recommendations made here., the results of their application will depend on the promptness of their consideration, amendment, and application. Whatever form the actions might take for minimizing the harm to the environment, the urgency of the matter can hardly be overestimated.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Predicting future grizzly bear habitat use in the Bitterroot Ecosystem under recolonization and reintroduction scenarios

Many conservation actions must be implemented with limited data. This is especially true when planning recovery efforts for extirpated populations, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) within the Bitterroot Ecosystem (BE), where strategies for reestablishing a resident population are being evaluated. Here, we applied individual-based movement models developed for a nearby grizzly bear population to predict habitat use in and near the BE, under scenarios of natural recolonization, reintroduction, and a combination. All simulations predicted that habitat use by grizzly bears would be higher in the northern half of the study area. Under the natural recolonization scenario, use was concentrated in Montana, but became more uniform across the northern BE in Idaho over time. Use was more concentrated in east-central Idaho under the reintroduction scenario. Assuming that natural recolonization continues even if bears are reintroduced, use remained widespread across the northern half of the BE and surrounding areas. Predicted habitat maps for the natural recolonization scenario aligned well with outlier and GPS collar data available for grizzly bears in the study area, with Spearman rank correlations of ≥0.93 and mean class values of ≥9.1 (where class 10 was the highest relative predicted use; each class 1–10 represented 10% of the landscape). In total, 52.4% of outlier locations and 79% of GPS collar locations were in class 10 in our predicted habitat maps for natural recolonization. Simulated grizzly bears selected habitats over a much larger landscape than the BE itself under all scenarios, including multiple-use and private lands, similar to existing populations that have expanded beyond recovery zones. This highlights the importance of recognizing and planning for the role of private lands in recovery efforts, including understanding resources needed to prevent and respond to human-grizzly bear conflict and maintain public acceptance of grizzly bears over a large landscape.

Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2012

Effects of spatial subsidies and habitat structure on the foraging ecology and size of geckos

While it is well established that ecosystem subsidies—the addition of energy, nutrients, or materials across ecosystem boundaries—can affect consumer abundance, there is less information available on how subsidy levels may affect consumer diet, body condition, trophic position, and resource partitioning among consumer species. There is also little information on whether changes in vegetation structure commonly associated with spatial variation in subsidies may play an important role in driving consumer responses to subsidies. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied changes in abundance, diet, trophic position, size, and body condition of two congeneric gecko species ( Lepidodactylus spp.) that coexist in palm dominated and native (hereafter dicot dominated) forests across the Central Pacific. These forests differ trongly both in the amount of marine subsidies that they receive from seabird guano and carcasses, and in the physical structure of the habitat. Contrary to other studies, we found that subsidy level had no impact on the abundance of either gecko species; it also did not have any apparent effects on resource partitioning between species. However, it did affect body size, dietary composition, and trophic position of both species. Geckos in subsidized, dicot forests were larger, had higher body condition and more diverse diets, and occupied a much higher trophic position than geckos found in palm dominated, low subsidy level forests. Both direct variation in subsidy levels and associated changes in habitat structure appear to play a role in driving these responses. These results suggest that variation in subsidy levels may drive important behavioral responses in predators, even when their numerical response is limited. Strong changes in trophic position of consumers also suggest that subsidies may drive increasingly complex food webs, with longer overall food chain length.

Palmyra Atoll↗

USGS2020

Kelp forest monitoring at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California: Fall 2017 and Spring 2018, Fourth Annual Report

To assess and track changes to the rocky subtidal communities surrounding San Nicolas Island, the U.S. Navy entered into an agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2014 to conduct an ecological monitoring program at several sites around the island. Four permanent sites—Nav Fac 100, West End, Dutch Harbor, and Daytona 100—were established. The sites were based on ones that had been monitored since 1980 by USGS and were combined or expanded for better comparability with monitoring programs conducted at the other California Channel Islands. At the sites, scientists from USGS and our cooperator, the University of California, Santa Cruz, measured bottom cover of algae and sessile invertebrate species in quadrats, counted and sized fish on swimming transects, and counted a suite of kelps and invertebrates on benthic band transects. Holdfast diameter and number of stipes of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) were recorded on these transects, and size data were collected for urchins, sea stars, and shelled mollusks. Bottom temperatures were recorded at hourly intervals by archival data loggers that were deployed at the sites. This report focuses primarily on data collected in fall 2017 and spring 2018 and makes comparisons with data collected in previous years, beginning in fall 2014. Nav Fac 100 is a site with a relatively low benthic profile, situated on the north side of San Nicolas Island. It was previously urchin dominated but underwent a dramatic decline in purple sea urchins in 2015 and 2016. Since then, macroalgae has become more prevalent as both annual brown algae, such as Dictyota, and perennials (for example, Cystoseira ) have become established. The invasive brown alga Sargassum horneri has also become established. West End, on the southwest side of the island, also lacks much bottom relief but has more crevice habitat associated with boulders. It remains dominated by kelps and red algae, but red algae have decreased recently. Dutch Harbor, on the south side, has many high relief rocky reefs and had the greatest fish and non-motile invertebrate densities. It remains the most stable of the sites. Daytona 100, on the southeast side, has moderate relief and has remained a patchwork of kelp and urchin dominated areas with moderate fish density. The main change at the sites during the last 4 years was the decline in urchin numbers at Nav Fac 100. There was storm-related mortality and subsequent recruitment in the M. pyrifera population at several of the sites in both 2016 and 2017. The winter of 2018, however, was relatively mild, with less destructive storm-related disturbance. The invasive brown alga S. horneri , first seen at San Nicolas Island at Nav Fac 100 in fall 2015, has become firmly established there during the last 2 sampling years. Finally, moderate increases were observed in purple urchin densities at all sites this spring. Long-term data are presented to illustrate trends and changes over the past three decades. Results indicate continued monitoring to evaluate ecosystem effects from perturbations owing to natural processes and anthropomorphic factors, including recovery of the sea otter population, changes in fisheries, invasive species and changing environmental conditions, could be valuable to inform managers’ decision-making.

California↗