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USGS2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integrates in-situ measurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697 µ molCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Spatiotemporal causal inference with mechanistic ecological models: Evaluating targeted culling on chronic wasting disease dynamics in cervids

Spatiotemporal causal inference methods are needed to detect the effect of interventions on indirectly measured epidemiological outcomes that go beyond studying spatiotemporal correlations. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) causes neurological degeneration and eventual death to white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in Wisconsin. Targeted culling involves removing deer after traditional hunting seasons in areas with high CWD prevalence. The evaluation of the causal effects of targeted culling in the spread and growth of CWD is an important unresolved research and CWD management question that can guide surveillance efforts. Reaction–diffusion partial differential equations (PDEs) can be used to mechanistically model the underlying spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife diseases, like CWD, allowing researchers to make inference about unobserved epidemiological quantities. These models indirectly regress spatiotemporal covariates on diffusion and growth rates parameterizing such PDEs, obtaining associational conclusions. In this work we develop an innovative method to obtain causal estimators for the effect of targeted culling interventions on CWD epidemiological processes using an inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighted technique by means of marginal structural models embedded in the PDE fitting process. Additionally we establish a novel scheme for sensitivity analysis under unmeasured confounder for testing the hypothesis of a significant causal effect in the indirectly measured epidemiological outcomes. Our methods can be broadly used to study the impact of spatiotemporal interventions and treatment exposures in the epidemiological evolution of infectious diseases that can help to inform future efforts to mitigate public health implications and wildlife disease burden.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Ecology of bonytail and razorback sucker and the role of off-channel habitats in their recovery

The bonytail and razorback sucker are two of four endangered mainstem fishes found in the Colorado River. Unlike the Colorado pikeminnow and humpback chub, wild populations of the bonytail and razorback sucker are either extirpated from the mainstem river or are nearly so. Agencies are aggressively stocking these fish and while repatriated fish spawn, their young are rapidly eaten by introduced predators. A decade of predator removal efforts has proved ineffective in restoring natural recruitment. Today, the presence of these species is totally dependent on stocking, suggesting both species are worse off today than when recovery efforts began nearly two decades ago. In contrast, both species readily produce young in ponds where nonnative predators are absent. Evidence shows they evolved with the ability to spawn in both flowing and standing water, which suggests isolated oxbow communities may have been an essential feature in their evolution and survival strategy. Sustainable populations during the past few decades have only occurred in isolated ponds devoid of predatory nonnative fish. Efforts to force recovery in the main channel river continue to fail due to the presence of nonnative predators that may be economically important recreational species. Off-channel sanctuaries provide research and management opportunities on a scale that are both biologically and economically realistic. Effective management of these species in small habitats appears to be the most logical approach to advance recovery in larger river reaches. This report presents new findings, updates existing information, and describes what may well represent the only practical approach to these species’ conservation and recovery. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Colorado River system from its origin to the Gulf of California and includes a description of propagation and stocking programs which have not been described elsewhere. The report also updates what is known or suspected on the life history and ecology of these two endangered fishes. Chapter 2 describes the successful recruitment of both species at an oxbow pond on the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, discusses factors that contribute to completion of the life cycle of both fishes, and provides recommendations for future management of the impoundment. Chapter 3 provides historical evidence that oxbow habitats were formed historically in years of high runoff and the importance of these habitats for survival and evolution of native fishes. It also summarizes key features of habitats that can serve as sanctuaries that enhance early survival of the endangered fishes and allow the fish to complete their entire life cycles.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Historical and modern disturbance regimes, stand structures, and landscape dynamics in piñon-juniper vegetation of the western United States

Piñon–juniper is a major vegetation type in western North America. Effective management of these ecosystems has been hindered by inadequate understanding of 1) the variability in ecosystem structure and ecological processes that exists among the diverse combinations of piñons, junipers, and associated shrubs, herbs, and soil organisms; 2) the prehistoric and historic disturbance regimes; and 3) the mechanisms driving changes in vegetation structure and composition during the past 150 yr. This article summarizes what we know (and don't know) about three fundamentally different kinds of piñon–juniper vegetation. Persistent woodlands are found where local soils, climate, and disturbance regimes are favorable for piñon, juniper, or a mix of both; fires have always been infrequent in these woodlands. Piñon–juniper savannas are found where local soils and climate are suitable for both trees and grasses; it is logical that low-severity fires may have maintained low tree densities before disruption of fire regimes following Euro-American settlement, but information is insufficient to support any confident statements about historical disturbance regimes in these savannas. Wooded shrublands are found where local soils and climate support a shrub community, but trees can increase during moist climatic conditions and periods without disturbance and decrease during droughts and following disturbance. Dramatic increases in tree density have occurred in portions of all three types of piñon–juniper vegetation, although equally dramatic mortality events have also occurred in some areas. The potential mechanisms driving increases in tree density—such as recovery from past disturbance, natural range expansion, livestock grazing, fire exclusion, climatic variability, and CO 2 fertilization—generally have not received enough empirical or experimental investigation to predict which is most important in any given location. The intent of this synthesis is 1) to provide a source of information for managers and policy makers; and 2) to stimulate researchers to address the most important unanswered questions.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2025

Dynamic risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions influences elk foraging behavior

Foraging time is a major component of ungulate activity budgets but can be limited by anti-predator behaviors (e.g., vigilance). Multitasking can reduce the nutritional costs of vigilance under heightened predation risk, but this may depend on the response of prey to risk from multiple predators across a complex spatiotemporal landscape. Mexican gray wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) are primary predators for elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Mexican wolf experimental population area in east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. We observed elk foraging across varying levels of wolf risk throughout all seasons and diel periods to quantify proportions of foraging, intense vigilance, and multitasking at the individual and herd levels. We quantified encounter and kill risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions using habitat selection functions and utilization distributions. We modeled elk behaviors as functions of predicted risk for both predators in addition to temporal and environmental covariates and accounted for human presence. Our results indicate that individual elk reduced foraging in areas with higher predicted risk from Mexican wolves or mountain lions and increased intense vigilance and multitasking in areas with higher wolf risk. A reduction in the proportion of bedded elk in the herd during all diel periods under increased wolf risk supports previous findings. These results also suggest that elk compensate for higher intense vigilance and reduced foraging during foraging bouts by increasing cumulative foraging bouts per day at the cost of resting. Additionally, the probability of multitasking for individuals depended on an interaction between short- and long-term wolf risk, and the likelihood of intense vigilance was highest under the greatest combined spatial and temporal risk from wolves. This research provides insight into the fine-scale and complex behavioral responses of elk to their primary predators and implies a need for researchers to consider these non-consumptive effects in future studies of predator–prey dynamics.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2008

Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial dispersion of male Kirtland's warblers within their restricted breeding range in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The male Kirtland's warbler population was six times larger in 2004 (1,322) compared to 1979 (205); the change was nonlinear with 1987 and 1994 identified as significant points of change. In 1987, the population trend began increasing after a slowly declining trend prior to 1987, and the rate of increase appeared to slow after 1994. Total amount of suitable habitat and the relative area of wildfire-regenerated habitat were the most important factors explaining population trend. Suitable habitat increased 149% primarily due to increasing plantations from forest management. The relative amount and location of wildfire-regenerated habitat modified the distribution of males among various habitat types, and the spatial variation in their abundance across the primary breeding range. These findings indicate that the Kirtland's warbler male population shifted its use of habitat types temporally and spatially as the population increased and as the relative availability of habitats changed through time. We demonstrate that researchers and managers need to consider not only habitat quality, but the temporal and the spatial context of habitat availability and population levels when making habitat restoration decisions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2021

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2023

Learning from arid and urban aquatic ecosystems to inform more sustainable and resilient futures

The hydrology and aquatic ecology of arid environments has long been understudied relative to temperate regions. Yet spatially and temporally intermittent and ephemeral waters characterized by flashy hydrographs typify arid regions that comprise a substantial proportion of the Earth. Additionally, drought, intense storms, and human modification of landscapes increasingly affect many temperate regions, resulting in hydrologic regimes more similar to aridlands. Here we review the contributions of Dr. Nancy Grimm to aridland hydrology and ecology, and applications of these insights to urban ecosystems and resilience of social-ecological-technological systems. Grimm catalyzed study of nitrogen cycling in streams and characterized feedbacks between surface water-groundwater exchange, nitrogen transformations, and aquatic biota. In aridlands, outcomes of these interactions depend on short- and long-term variation in the hydrologic regime. Grimm and colleagues applied hydrological and biogeochemical insights gained from study of aridland streams to urban ecosystems, integrating engineering, social and behavioral sciences, and geography. These studies evolved from characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of urban systems (i.e., watersheds, novel aquatic systems) and its influence on nutrient dynamics to an approach that evaluated human decision-making as a driver of disturbance regimes and changes in ecosystem function. Finally, Grimm and colleagues have applied principles of urban ecology to look toward the future of cities, considering scenarios of sustainable and resilient futures. We identify cross-cutting themes and approaches that have motivated discoveries across Grimm’s multi-decadal career, including spatial and temporal heterogeneity, hydrologic connectivity and regime, disturbance, systems thinking, and resilience. Finally, we emphasize Grimm’s broad contributions to science via support of long-term research, dedication to mentoring, and extensive collaborations that facilitated transdisciplinary research.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2006

Longitudinal hydraulic analysis of river‐aquifer exchanges

A longitudinal analysis of transient flow between a river and an underlying aquifer is developed to calculate flow rates between the river and the aquifer and the location of groundwater seepage into the river as it changes over time. Two flow domains are defined in the analysis: an upstream domain of fluvial recharge, where water flows vertically from the river into the unsaturated portion of the aquifer and horizontally in saturated parts of the aquifer, and a downstream domain of groundwater seepage to the river, where groundwater flows parallel to the underlying impermeable base. The river does not necessarily penetrate completely through the aquifer. A one‐dimensional, unsteady flow equation is derived from mass conservation, Darcy's law, and the geometry of the river‐aquifer system to calculate the water table position and the groundwater seepage rate into the river. Models based on numerical and analytical solutions of the flow equation were applied to a reach of the Methow River in north central Washington. The calibrated models simulated groundwater seepage with a root‐mean‐square error less than 5% of the mean groundwater seepage rates for three low‐flow evaluation periods. The analytical model provides a theoretical basis for a nonlinear exponential base flow recession generated by a draining aquifer, but not an explicit functional form for the recession. Unlike cross‐sectional approaches, the longitudinal approach allows the analysis of the length and location of groundwater seepage to a river, which have important ecological implications in many rivers. In the numerical simulations, the length of the groundwater seepage varied seasonally by about 4 km and the upstream boundary of groundwater seepage was within 689 m of its location at a stream gage on 9 September 2001 and within 91 m of its location on 6 October 2002. To demonstrate its utility in ecological applications, the numerical model was used to calculate differences in length of groundwater seepage to the Methow River under an early runoff scenario and the timing of those differences with respect to life stages of chinook salmon.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2012

Timing and synchrony of births in bighorn sheep: implications for reintroduction and conservation

Context: Timing (mean birthdate) and synchrony (variance around that date) of births can influence survival of young and growth in ungulate populations. Some restored populations of ungulates may not adjust these life-history characteristics to environments of release sites until several years after release, which may influence success of reintroductions. Aims: We quantified timing and synchrony of births from 2005 to 2007 in four populations of reintroduced bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) occupying two ecoregions (Central Basin and Range and Wasatch and Uinta Mountains) in Utah, USA, to investigate whether bighorns would adjust these life-history characteristics to environmental conditions of the two ecoregions. We also compared timing and synchrony of births for bighorns in their source herd (Antelope Island) with bighorns in an ecologically similar release site (Stansbury Mountains) during 2006 and 2007. Methods: We relocated female bighorns to record birthdates of young, and observed groups of collared bighorns to quantify use of elevation by those ungulates. We also calculated the initiation, rate and timing of peak green-up by ecoregion, using the normalised difference vegetation index. Key results: We quantified 274 birthdates, and although only separated by 57 km, bighorn populations occupying the Central Basin and Range Mountains gave birth an average of 29 days earlier than did those on the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains, which corresponded with the initiation of vegetation green-up. Additionally, bighorn sheep on the Stansbury Mountains (ecologically similar release site) gave birth at similar times as did bighorns on Antelope Island (source area). Conclusions: Populations of bighorn sheep that were reintroduced into adjacent ecoregions adjusted timing of births to environments and green-up of vegetation in restoration areas. Timing and synchrony of births for reintroduced bighorn sheep in an ecologically similar release site were the same as those of their source area. Implications: Consideration should be given to the adjustment of timing and synchrony of births when reintroducing bighorns, especially when animals are released into different ecoregions. Also, biologists should select release sites that are ecologically similar to source areas, thereby reducing potential negative effects of animals adjusting timing and synchrony of births to environmental conditions of restoration areas.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS2014

Potential population and assemblage influences of non-native trout on native nongame fish in Nebraska headwater streams

Non-native trout are currently stocked to support recreational fisheries in headwater streams throughout Nebraska. The influence of non-native trout introductions on native fish populations and their role in structuring fish assemblages in these systems is unknown. The objectives of this study were to determine (i) if the size structure or relative abundance of native fish differs in the presence and absence of non-native trout, (ii) if native fish-assemblage structure differs in the presence and absence of non-native trout and (iii) if native fish-assemblage structure differs across a gradient in abundances of non-native trout. Longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae were larger in the presence of brown trout Salmo trutta and smaller in the presence of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss compared to sites without trout. There was also a greater proportion of larger white suckers Catostomus commersonii in the presence of brown trout. Creek chub Semotilus atromaculatus and fathead minnow Pimephales promelas size structures were similar in the presence and absence of trout. Relative abundances of longnose dace, white sucker, creek chub and fathead minnow were similar in the presence and absence of trout, but there was greater distinction in native fish-assemblage structure between sites with trout compared to sites without trout as trout abundances increased. These results suggest increased risk to native fish assemblages in sites with high abundances of trout. However, more research is needed to determine the role of non-native trout in structuring native fish assemblages in streams, and the mechanisms through which introduced trout may influence native fish populations.

Nebraska↗

USGS2011

Fort Collins Science Center fiscal year 2010 science accomplishments

The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Fort Collins Science Center (FORT), apply their diverse ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise to investigate complicated ecological problems confronting managers of the Nation's biological resources. FORT works closely with U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agency scientists, the academic community, other USGS science centers, and many other partners to provide critical information needed to help answer complex natural-resource management questions. In Fiscal Year 2010 (FY10), FORT's scientific and technical professionals conducted ongoing, expanded, and new research vital to the science needs and management goals of DOI, other Federal and State agencies, and nongovernmental organizations in the areas of aquatic systems and fisheries, climate change, data and information integration and management, invasive species, science support, security and technology, status and trends of biological resources (including the socioeconomic aspects), terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and wildlife resources, including threatened and endangered species. This report presents selected FORT science accomplishments for FY10 by the specific USGS mission area or science program with which each task is most closely associated, though there is considerable overlap. The report also includes all FORT publications and other products published in FY10, as well as staff accomplishments, appointments, committee assignments, and invited presentations.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Five-year interim report of the United States-Mexico Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program: 2007--2012

Transboundary aquifers are an essential, and in many cases, singular source of water for United States – Mexico border communities, particularly in arid regions. Declining water levels, deteriorating water quality, and increasing use of groundwater resources by municipal, industrial, and agricultural water users on both sides of the international border have raised concerns about the long-term availability of this supply. Water quantity and quality are determining and limiting factors that ultimately control agriculture, future economic development, population growth, human health, and ecological conditions along the border. Knowledge about the extent, depletion rates, and quality of transboundary aquifers, however, is limited and, in some areas, completely absent. The U.S. – Mexico Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Act (Public Law 109-448), referred to in this report as “the Act,” was signed into law by the President of the United States on December 22, 2006, to conduct binational scientific research to systematically assess priority transboundary aquifers and to address water information needs of border communities. The Act authorizes the Secretary of the Interior, through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to collaborate with the States of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas through their Water Resources Research Institutes (WRRIs) and with the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), stakeholders, and Mexican counterparts to provide new information and a scientific foundation for State and local officials to address pressing water-resource challenges along the U.S. – Mexico border.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Effects of microhabitat and land use on stream salamander abundance in the southwest Virginia coalfields

Large-scale land uses such as residential wastewater discharge and coal mining practices, particularly surface coal extraction and associated valley fills, are of particular ecological concern in central Appalachia. Identification and quantification of both alterations across scales are a necessary first-step to mitigate negative consequences to biota. In central Appalachian headwater streams absent of fish, salamanders are the dominant, most abundant vertebrate predator providing a significant intermediate trophic role. Stream salamander species are considered to be sensitive to aquatic stressors and environmental alterations, and past research has shown linkages among microhabitat parameters, large-scale land use such as urbanization and logging with salamander abundances. However, little is known about these linkages in the coalfields of central Appalachia. In the summer of 2013, we visited 70 sites (sampled three times each) in the southwest Virginia coalfields to survey salamanders and quantify stream and riparian microhabitat parameters. Using an information-theoretic framework we compared the effects of microhabitat and large-scale land use on salamander abundances. Our findings indicate that dusky salamander (Desmognathus spp.) abundances are more correlated to microhabitat parameters such as canopy cover than to subwatershed land uses. Brook salamander (Eurycea spp.) abundances show strong negative associations to the suspended sediments and stream substrate embeddedness. Neither Desmognathus spp. nor Eurycea spp. abundances were influenced by water conductivity. These suggest protection or restoration of riparian habitats and erosion control is an important conservation component for maintaining stream salamanders in the mined landscapes of central Appalachia.

Virginia↗

USGS2022

Does large dam removal restore downstream riparian vegetation diversity? Testing predictions on the Elwha River, Washington, USA

Large dams and their removal can profoundly affect riparian ecosystems by altering flow and sediment regimes, hydrochory, and landform dynamics, yet few studies have documented these effects on downstream plant communities. Ecological theory and empirical results suggest that by altering disturbance regimes, reducing hydrochory, and shifting communities to later successional stages, dams reduce downstream plant diversity. Dam removal could reverse these processes, but the release of large volumes of sediment could have unexpected, transient effects. Two large dams were removed on the Elwha River in Washington State, USA, from 2011-2014, representing an unprecedented opportunity to study large dam removal effects on riparian plant communities. Our research objectives were to determine: 1) whether the Elwha River dams were associated with lower downstream plant diversity and altered species composition across riparian landforms pre-dam removal, and 2) whether dam removal has begun to restore downstream diversity and composition. To address these objectives, we compared plant species richness and community composition in river segments above, below, and between the two dams. Plant communities were sampled twice before (2005 and 2010) and four times after (2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017) the start of dam removal, with 2013 and 2014 sampled while the upstream dam removal was ongoing. Prior to dam removal, native species richness was 41% lower below dams compared to the upstream segment; six years after dam removal began, it increased ~31% between the dams, while nonnative species richness and cover were not apparently affected by dams or their removal. Deposition caused by large volumes of released reservoir sediment had mixed effects on native species richness (increased on floodplains, decreased elsewhere) in the lowest river segment. Plant community composition was also different downstream from dams compared to the upstream reference, and has changed in downstream floodplains and bars since dam removal. Long-term, we expect that diversity will continue to increase in downstream river segments. Our results provide evidence that 1) large dams reduce downstream native plant diversity, 2) dam removal may restore it, and 3) given the natural dynamics of riparian vegetation, long-term, multi-year before-and-after-monitoring is essential for understanding dam removal effects.

Washington↗

USGS2008

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2017

Recommended approaches to the scientific evaluation of ecotoxicological hazards and risks of endocrine-active substances

A SETAC Pellston Workshop ® “Environmental Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)” was held in February 2016 in Pensacola, Florida, USA. The primary objective of the workshop was to provide advice, based on current scientific understanding, to regulators and policy makers; the aim being to make considered, informed decisions on whether to select an ecotoxicological hazard- or a risk-based approach for regulating a given endocrine-disrupting substance (EDS) under review. The workshop additionally considered recent developments in the identification of EDS. Case studies were undertaken on 6 endocrine-active substances (EAS—not necessarily proven EDS, but substances known to interact directly with the endocrine system) that are representative of a range of perturbations of the endocrine system and considered to be data rich in relevant information at multiple biological levels of organization for 1 or more ecologically relevant taxa. The substances selected were 17α-ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, propiconazole, 17β-trenbolone, tributyltin, and vinclozolin. The 6 case studies were not comprehensive safety evaluations but provided foundations for clarifying key issues and procedures that should be considered when assessing the ecotoxicological hazards and risks of EAS and EDS. The workshop also highlighted areas of scientific uncertainty, and made specific recommendations for research and methods-development to resolve some of the identified issues. The present paper provides broad guidance for scientists in regulatory authorities, industry, and academia on issues likely to arise during the ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment of EAS and EDS. The primary conclusion of this paper, and of the SETAC Pellston Workshop on which it is based, is that if data on environmental exposure, effects on sensitive species and life-stages, delayed effects, and effects at low concentrations are robust, initiating environmental risk assessment of EDS is scientifically sound and sufficiently reliable and protective of the environment. In the absence of such data, assessment on the basis of hazard is scientifically justified until such time as relevant new information is available.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2011

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗