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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 1,765 records · Page 98Linked to original sources
USGS1984

Maps showing ground-water levels, springs, and depth to ground water, Basin and Range province, Utah

This report on ground-water levels, springs, and depth to ground water in the Basin and Range province of Utah (see index map) was prepared as part of a program of the U.S. Geological Survey to identify prospective regions for further study relative to isolation of high-level nuclear waste (Bedinger, Sargent, and Reed, 1984), utilizing program guidelines defined in Sargent and Bedinger (1984) . Also included in this report are selected references on pertinent geologic and hydrologic studies of the region. Other map reports in this series contain detailed data on ground-water quality, surface distribution of selected rock types, tectonic conditions, areal geophysics, Pleistocene lakes and marshes, and mineral and energy resources.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Model sensitivity analysis for coastal morphodynamics: Investigating sediment parameters and bed composition in Delft3D

Numerical simulation of sediment transport and subsequent morphological evolution rely on accurate parameterizations of sediment characteristics. However, these data are often not available or are spatially and/or temporally limited. This study approaches the problem of limited sediment grain-size data with a series of simulations assessing model sensitivity to sediment parameters and initial bed composition configurations in Delft3D, leading to improved modeling practices. A previously validated Delft3D sediment transport and morphology model for Dauphin Island, Alabama, USA, is used as the benchmark case. A method for the generation of representative sediment grain sizes and their spatially varying distributions is presented via end-member analysis of in situ surficial sediment samples. Derived sediment classes and their spatial distributions are applied to two sensitivity case simulations with increasing bed composition complexity. First, multiple sediment classes are applied in a single fully mixed layer, regardless of sediment type. Second, multiple sediment classes are applied in a thin, fully mixed transport layer with underlayers containing only the non-cohesive sediment classes below. Simulations were carried out in a probabilistic, Delft3D MorMerge configuration to capture long-term morphology change for 10 years. We found there is sensitivity to the inclusion of additional sediment classes and sediment distribution made evident in bed level and morphology change. Inclusion of highly mobile fine sediments altered model results in each sensitivity case. The model was also found to be sensitive to initial bed composition in terms of bed level and morphology change, with notable differences between sensitivity cases on decadal timescales, indicating an armoring effect in the second sensitivity case, which used the transport and underlayer bed configuration. The results of this study offer guidance for numerical modelers concerned with sediment behavior in coastal and estuarine environments.

Alabama↗
USGS2014

Spatio-temporal patterns and climate variables controlling of biomass carbon stock of global grassland ecosystems from 1982 to 2006

Grassland ecosystems play an important role in subsistence agriculture and the global carbon cycle. However, the global spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of grassland biomass are not well quantified and understood. The goal of this study was to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of the global grassland biomass and analyze their driving forces using field measurements, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from satellite data, climate reanalysis data, and a satellite-based statistical model. Results showed that the NDVI-based biomass carbon model developed from this study explained 60% of the variance across 38 sites globally. The global carbon stock in grassland aboveground live biomass was 1.05 Pg·C, averaged from 1982 to 2006, and increased at a rate of 2.43 Tg·C·y −1 during this period. Temporal change of the global biomass was significantly and positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The distribution of biomass carbon density followed the precipitation gradient. The dynamics of regional grassland biomass showed various trends largely determined by regional climate variability, disturbances, and management practices (such as grazing for meat production). The methods and results from this study can be used to monitor the dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass and evaluate grassland susceptibility to climate variability and change, disturbances, and management.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2010

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (+ or -SE) was 5.13 + or - 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 + or - 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 + or - 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 + or - 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS1983

Gravity studies in the Cascade Range

A compatible set of gravity data has been compiled for the entire Cascade Range. From this data set a series of interpretive color gravity maps have been prepared, including a free air anomaly map, Bouguer anomaly map at a principle, and an alternate reduction density, and filtered and derivative versions of the Bouguer anomaly map. The regional anomaly pattern and gradients outline the various geological provinces adjacent to the Cascade Range and delineate major structural elements in the range. The more local anomalies and gradients may delineate low density basin and caldera fill, faults, and shallow plutons. Refs.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2010

ePRISM: A case study in multiple proxy and mixed temporal resolution integration

As part of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project, we present the ePRISM experiment designed I) to provide climate modelers with a reconstruction of an early Pliocene warm period that was warmer than the PRISM interval (similar to 3.3 to 3.0 Ma), yet still similar in many ways to modern conditions and 2) to provide an example of how best to integrate multiple-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) data from time series with varying degrees of temporal resolution and age control as we begin to build the next generation of PRISM, the PRISM4 reconstruction, spanning a constricted time interval. While it is possible to tie individual SST estimates to a single light (warm) oxygen isotope event, we find that the warm peak average of SST estimates over a narrowed time interval is preferential for paleoclimate reconstruction as it allows for the inclusion of more records of multiple paleotemperature proxies.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2010

Sediment transport on Cape Sable, Everglades National Park, Florida

The Cape Sable peninsula is located on the southwestern tip of the Florida peninsula within Everglades National Park (ENP). Lake Ingraham, the largest lake within Cape Sable, is now connected to the Gulf of Mexico and western Florida Bay by canals built in the early 1920's. Some of these canals breached a natural marl ridge located to the north of Lake Ingraham. These connections altered the landscape of this area allowing for the transport of sediments to and from Lake Ingraham. Saline intrusion into the formerly fresh interior marsh has impacted the local ecology. Earthen dams installed in the 1950's and 1960's in canals that breached the marl ridge have repeatedly failed. Sheet pile dams installed in the early 1990's subsequently failed resulting in the continued alteration of Lake Ingraham and the interior marsh. The Cape Sable Canals Dam Restoration Project, funded by ENP, proposes to restore the two failed dams in Lake Ingraham. The objective of this study was to collect discharge and water quality data over a series of tidal cycles and flow conditions to establish discharge and sediment surrogate relations prior to initiating the Cape Sable Canals Dam Restoration Project. A dry season synoptic sampling event was performed on April 27-30, 2009.

Florida↗
USGS2009

Characterization of rock samples and mineralogical controls on leachates

Rocks associated with coal beds typically include shale, sandstone, and (or) limestone. In addition to common rock-forming minerals, all of these rock types may contain sulfide and sulfate minerals, various carbonate minerals, and organic material. These different minerals have inherently different solubility characteristics, as well as different acid-generating or acid-neutralizing potentials. The abundance and composition of sulfur- and carbonate-bearing minerals are of particular interest in interpreting the leaching column data because (1) pyrite and carbonate minerals are the primary controls on the acid-base account of a sample, (2) these minerals incorporate trace metals that can be released during weathering, and (3) these minerals readily react during weathering due to mineral dissolution and oxidation of iron. Rock samples were collected by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP) from five different sites to assess the draft standardized leaching column method (ADTI-WP2) for the prediction of weathering rates and water quality at coal mines. Samples were sent to USGS laboratories for mineralogical characterization and to ActLabs for chemical analysis. The samples represent a variety of rock types (shales, sandstones, and coal refuse) that are typical of coal overburden in the eastern United States. These particular samples were chosen for testing the weathering protocols because they represent a range of geochemical and lithologic characteristics, sulfur contents, and acid-base accounting characteristics (Hornberger et al., 2003). The rocks contain variable amounts of pyrite and carbonate minerals and vary in texture. This chapter includes bulk rock chemical data and detailed mineralogical and textural data for unweathered starting materials used in the interlaboratory validation study, and for two samples used in the early phases of leaching column tests (Wadesville Sandstone, Leechburg Coal Refuse). We also characterize some of the post-weathering rock samples, report trace-element content in leachate, and discuss mineralogical controls on leachate quality based on data from one of the participating laboratories. Table 5.1 lists the samples described in this chapter, the sample numbers, and comments on the characteristics of each lithology. Sample locations are plotted in Figure 5.1. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the sample locations, sample preparation protocols, ABA characteristics, and rationale for selection of rock samples for testing. Microprobe data for pyrite and carbonate minerals are tabulated in Appendix 5.1. Leachate data, along with a series of graphs showing concentration and cumulative transport trends, for the laboratory data discussed in this chapter are included as Excel spreadsheets in Appendices 5.2 and 5.3. Leach column data for the interlaboratory study are evaluated and interpreted in Chapters 7 -11.

Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iow↗
USGS2022

Monitoring and characterizing multi-decadal variations of urban thermal condition using time-series thermal remote sensing and dynamic land cover data

Urban development and associated land cover and land use change alter the thermal, hydrological, and physical properties of the land surface. Assessments of surface urban heat island (UHI) usually focused on using remote sensing and land cover data to quantify UHI intensity and spatial distribution within a certain period. However, the mechanisms and complex interactions in landscape dynamics and land surface thermal features are still being assessed. In this study, we developed and implemented a novel approach to characterize landscape thermal conditions by focusing on UHI intensity and its spatiotemporal variation using the recently available time series of Landsat land surface temperature and land cover change products. We analyzed land surface temperature changes in urban and surrounding non-urban lands to quantify the UHI intensity and landscape thermal conditions in the Atlanta and Minneapolis metropolitan areas of the United States. Our results revealed that UHI intensities had averages of 3.4 °C and 3.3 °C in the Atlanta and Minneapolis metropolitan areas, respectively. The dominant land cover type in rural areas and urban imperviousness cover determines the UHI intensity. Increasing trends of 0.04 °C/year and 0.01 °C/year in UHI intensity between 1985 and 2018 were found in Atlanta and Minneapolis, respectively. The UHI intensity variations in 1985 and 2018 suggest that the magnitudes and temporal variations of UHI intensity averaged from all urban land cover classes are close to the UHI intensity estimated from the low intensity urban area only while the UHI intensities are more than 2 °C larger in medium to high and high intensity urban areas. The UHI intensities estimated from the maximum temperature that have statistically significant increasing trends suggest that the maximum temperature is a good element for measuring UHI effect. Urban land cover dynamics play an important role in controlling temporal variation of UHI and the UHI hotspots. Our findings support the scientific value of implementing the prototype approach as an objective framework to quantify and monitor UHI intensity at a large geographic extent.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2005

Effects of urban land-use change on streamflow and water quality in Oakland County, Michigan, 1970-2003, as inferred from urban gradient and temporal analysis

Various adverse hydrologic effects on streams have been attributed to urban development and expanded impervious surface area, including increased high flows, decreased low flows, increased variability (commonly referred to as flashiness), nutrient enrichment, and increased dissolved solids concentrations. These effects are often observed through the use of urban-gradient studies, which compare hydrologic characteristics among watersheds with different levels of development. This technique is frequently applied when comparable prior data are not available for the watersheds of interest. During 1966 - 1970, and again during 2001 - 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey collected a series of low-flow water-chemistry samples. Streamflow-gaging stations were operated throughout the period from 1966- 2003 as part of ongoing monitoring operations. This study compares these two water-quality data sets; tests the streamflow data for trends in high flows, low flows, and flashiness; and correlates 2000 land use with water-quality and streamflow data collected during the 2001 - 2003 study. Despite substantial change in land use during 1980 - 2000, with urban land covers replacing open space, forest, and agriculture, little evidence is found in the time-series data of alteration of the daily streamflow characteristics or nutrient enrichment in the study watersheds. However, a distinct shift is observable in chloride concentrations. Strong positive correlations exist across the urban gradient between development and increased peak flows as well as between development and increased flashiness. Correlations of water-quality data to development metrics show strong positive correlations with increased dissolved solids and salt content, as well as increased concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria ( Eschericia coli ). This apparent contradiction may be caused by the differences in the changes measured in each analysis. The change-through-time approach describes change from a fixed starting point of approximately 1970; the gradient approach describes the cumulative effect of all change up to approximately 2000. These findings indicate that although urbanization in Oakland County results in most of the effects observed in the literature, as evidenced in the gradient approach, relatively few of the anticipated effects have been observed during the past three decades. This relative stability despite rapid land-cover change may be related to efforts to mitigate the effects of development and a general decrease in the density of new residential development. It may also be related to external factors such as climate variability and reduced atmospheric deposition of specific chemicals.

Michigan↗
USGS2018

Using heat as a tracer to determine groundwater seepage in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, April–November, 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the St. Johns River Water Management District, conducted a study to examine water fluxes in two small study areas in the Indian River Lagoon. Vertical arrays of temperature sensors were placed at multiple locations in the lagoon bed to measure temperature time series in the vertical profile. These data at one of the study areas, Eau Gallie, were used in two numerical models, 1DTempPro and VFLUX, to estimate seepage flux rates into the lagoon. 1DTempPro uses an inverse-modeling approach to calibrate groundwater flux to the measured temperature time series. VFLUX isolates the fundamental frequency signal in the temperature data and utilizes the resulting amplitude and phase differences between sensor locations to determine vertical water flux. Field measurements were made during two time periods, March 23 to April 28, 2017, and June 1 to November 3, 2017. Simulating the first, drier period at one location with 1DTempPro helped determine reasonable seepage fluctuations and provided guidelines for choosing which temperature sensor pairs used in the VFLUX simulations would produce the best results. VFLUX simulations at eight locations indicated daily average seepage flux rates of less than 20 centimeters per day (cm/d) and substantial seepage flux out to a distance of at least 110 meters from shore. The spatial variation in average seepage flux rates within 40 meters of shore seemed large, ranging from about 3 to 20 cm/d. In the VFLUX application using the June 1–November 3, 2017 data, the seepage flux has a higher magnitude and fluctuation than the first simulation period, making the isolation of the fundamental temperature frequency signal in the temperature data difficult. However, useful partial or full simulations were achieved at 6 of the 10 locations. The storm surge of Hurricane Irma on September 10, 2017, changed the depths of the sensors relative to the lagoon bed and disrupted the ability of VFLUX to compute seepage flux for the posthurricane period. The June 1 to November 3, 2017, computed seepage flux rates were higher than those for the March 24 to April 28, 2017, period and were sometimes as great as 40 cm/d, and more than 60 cm/d at one location. The seepage time-series data collected during Hurricane Irma indicates a downward seepage flux as a result of the storm surge, followed by upwelling from precipitation recharge inland. The average seepage flux rates are higher than those during the March–April period and are over 25 cm/d near the coast and about 20 cm/d 130 meters offshore.

Florida↗
USGS1999

Environmental influences on potential recruitment of pink shrimp, Fatlantopenaeus duorarum , from Florida Bay nursery grounds

Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas rink shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlement-stage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly density estimates for juvenile rink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches.

Estuaries↗
USGS2007

Integrating remote sensing and ground methods to estimate evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiraton (ET) is the second largest term in the terrestrial water budget after precipitation, and ET is expected to increase with global warming. ET studies are relevant to the plant sciences because over 80% of terrestrial ET is due to transpiration by plants. Remote sensing is the only feasible means for projecting ET over large landscape units. In the past decade or so, new ground and remote sensing tools have dramatically increased our ability to measure ET at the plot scale and to scale it over larger regions. Moisture flux towers and micrometeorological stations have been deployed in numerous natural and agricultural biomes and provide continuous measurements of actual ET or potential ET with an accuracy or uncertainty of 10–30%. These measurements can be scaled to larger landscape units using remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VIs), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and other satellite data. Two types of methods have been developed. Empirical methods use time-series VIs and micrometeorological data to project ET measured on the ground to larger landscape units. Physically-based methods use remote sensing data to determine the components of the surface energy balance, including latent heat flux, which determines ET. Errors in predicting ET by both types of methods are within the error bounds of the flux towers by which they are calibrated or validated. However, the error bounds need to be reduced to 10% or less for applications that require precise wide-area ET estimates. The high fidelity between ET and VIs over agricultural fields and natural ecosystems where precise ground estimates of ET are available suggests that this might be an achievable goal if ground methods for measuring ET continue to improve.

Critical Reviews in Plant Science↗
USGS2020

Landsat Collection 2 geometric calibration updates

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) changed the management and delivery of Landsat products to the public in its archive through the implementation of Collections. The Collections process ensures consistent data quality through time and across all the Landsat sensors with a few modifications to the metadata. The consistent data products from Collections are more conducive for applications such as time-series analysis, because the data can be used without a need for sensor-specific geometric or radiometric adjustments. The Collections process also allows for calibration improvements from updated reference sources, model trending, and enhanced algorithms that are grouped together and applied at one time, thus limiting the operational impacts to users. The first collection, Collection-1 was released in 2016, and Collection-2 is expected to be released in 2020. This paper addresses the geometric improvements to the Collection -2 dataset. Geometric improvements in Collection-2 include improvements to the geometric accuracy and interoperability of all Landsat products by implementing the Sentinel 2 Global Reference Image (GRI), improved elevation dataset using NASADEM and other sources of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for terrain correction, improvements to the precision correction process for Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Thematic Mapper (TM) sensors, changes to the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) to Operational Land Imager (OLI) alignment estimates, thermal band detector alignments and focal plane adjustments for ETM+, and improvements to the ETM+ sensor to attitude control system (ACS).

Conference Paper↗
USGS2020

Maximum entropy derived statistics of sound speed structure in a fine-grained sediment inferred from sparse broadband acoustic measurements on the New England continental shelf

Marginal probability distributions for parameters representing an effective sound-speed structure of a fine-grained sediment are inferred from a data ensemble maximum entropy method that utilizes a sparse spatially distributed set of received pressure time series resulting from multiple explosive sources in a shallow-water ocean environment possessing significant spatial variability of the seabed. A remote sensing seabed acoustics experiment undertaken in March 2017 off the New England Shelf was designed so that multiple independent analyses could infer the statistical properties of the seabed. The current analysis incorporates the measured horizontal variability from interpretations of a subbottom profiling survey of the experimental area. An idealized range- and azimuth-dependent parameterization of the seabed is derived from identification of horizons within the seabed that define multiple sediment layers. A sparse set of explosive charges were deployed on circular tracks with radii of about 2, 4, and 6.5 km with an acoustic array at the center to correlate a set of random measurements to physical acoustic processes that characterize the seabed. The mean values of a surface sound speed ratio and a linear sound speed gradient for the fine-grained sediment layer derived from 12 data samples processed in the 25–275-Hz band provide an estimate of the effective sound-speed structure in a 130-km $^2$ area. The inferred sediment sound speed values are evaluated by predicting measured time series data not used in the statistical inference, and are also compared to historical measurements. Finally, the low-frequency maximum entropy estimate of the sediment sound speed along with physical measurements derived from piston core measurements are utilized to estimate the sediment grain bulk modulus. predictions made by the viscous grain shearing model.

Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhod↗
USGS2016

Using diurnal temperature signals to infer vertical groundwater-surface water exchange

Heat is a powerful tracer to quantify fluid exchange between surface water and groundwater. Temperature time series can be used to estimate pore water fluid flux, and techniques can be employed to extend these estimates to produce detailed plan-view flux maps. Key advantages of heat tracing include cost-effective sensors and ease of data collection and interpretation, without the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory analyses or induced tracers. While the collection of temperature data in saturated sediments is relatively straightforward, several factors influence the reliability of flux estimates that are based on time series analysis (diurnal signals) of recorded temperatures. Sensor resolution and deployment are particularly important in obtaining robust flux estimates in upwelling conditions. Also, processing temperature time series data involves a sequence of complex steps, including filtering temperature signals, selection of appropriate thermal parameters, and selection of the optimal analytical solution for modeling. This review provides a synthesis of heat tracing using diurnal temperature oscillations, including details on optimal sensor selection and deployment, data processing, model parameterization, and an overview of computing tools available. Recent advances in diurnal temperature methods also provide the opportunity to determine local saturated thermal diffusivity, which can improve the accuracy of fluid flux modeling and sensor spacing, which is related to streambed scour and deposition. These parameters can also be used to determine the reliability of flux estimates from the use of heat as a tracer.

Groundwater↗
USGS2007

Water velocity and suspended solids measurements by in-situ instruments in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

The U. S. Geological Survey conducted hydrodynamic measurements in Upper Klamath Lake during four summer seasons (approximately mid-June to mid-September) during 2003 to 2006. Measurements included water current profiles made by acoustic Doppler current profilers at a number of fixed locations in the lake during all four years as well as from a moving boat during 2005 and 2006. Measurements of size distribution of suspended material were made at four locations in the lake during 2004-2006. Raw (unfiltered) data are presented as time series of measurements. In addition, water-velocity data have been filtered to remove wind-induced variations with periods less than thirty hours from the measurements. Bar graphs of horizontal and vertical water speed and acoustic backscatter have been generated to discern diurnal variations, especially as they relate to wind patterns over the lake. Mean speeds of the horizontal currents in the lake range between about 3.5 to 15 cm/s with the higher speeds at the deep locations in the trench on the west side of the lake. Current directions generally conform to the lake’s bathymetry contours and the water circulation pattern is usually in a clockwise direction around the lake as established by the prevailing north to northwesterly surface winds in the region. Diurnal patterns in horizontal currents probably relate to diurnal wind patterns with minimum wind speeds near noon and maximum wind speeds near 2100. Diurnal variations in vertical velocities do not appear to be related to wind patterns; they do appear to be related to expected patterns of vertical migration of Aphanizomenon flos aquae , (AFA) the predominant species of blue-green algae in the lake. Similarly, diurnal variations in acoustic backscatter, especially near the lake’s surface, are probably related to the vertical migration of AFA.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Methods for estimating regional skewness of annual peak flows in parts of eastern New York and Pennsylvania, based on data through water year 2013

Bulletin 17C (B17C) recommends fitting the log-Pearson Type III (LP−III) distribution to a series of annual peak flows at a streamgage by using the method of moments. The third moment, the skewness coefficient (or skew), is important because the magnitudes of annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows estimated by using the LP–III distribution are affected by the skew; interest is focused on the right-hand tail of the distribution, which represents the larger annual peak flows that correspond to small AEPs. For streamgages having modest record lengths, the skew is sensitive to extreme events like large floods, which cause a sample to be highly asymmetrical or “skewed.” For this reason, B17C recommends using a weighted-average skew computed from the skew of the annual peak flows for a given streamgage and a regional skew. This report presents an estimate of regional skew for a study area encompassing parts of eastern New York and Pennsylvania. A total of 232 candidate U.S. Geological Survey streamgages that were unaffected by extensive regulation, diversion, urbanization, or channelization were considered for use in the skew analysis; after screening for redundancy and pseudo record length ( P RL ) of at least 36 years, 183 streamgages were selected for use in the study. Flood frequencies for candidate streamgages were analyzed by employing the expected moments algorithm, which extends the method of moments so that it can accommodate interval, censored, and historical/paleo flow data, as well as the multiple Grubbs-Beck test to identify potentially influential low floods in the data series. Bayesian weighted least squares/Bayesian generalized least squares regression was used to develop a regional skew model for the study area that would incorporate possible variables (basin characteristics) to explain the variation in skew in the study area. Ten basin characteristics were considered as possible explanatory variables; however, none produced a pseudo coefficient of determination greater than 1 percent; as a result, these characteristics did not help to explain the variation in skew in the study area. Therefore, a constant model that had a regional skew coefficient of 0.32 and an average variance of prediction at a new streamgage ( AVP new , which corresponds to the mean square error [MSE] of 0.11) was selected. The AVP new corresponds to an effective record length of 68 years, a marked improvement over the Bulletin 17B national skew map, whose reported MSE of 0.302 indicated a corresponding effective record length of only 17 years.

New York, Pennsylvania↗