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USGS2025

Correspondence between satellite-derived and long-term field observations of vegetation cover at Great Basin experimental treatments.

Vegetation treatments are frequently utilized in Western US rangelands to reduce woody plant cover in sagebrush stands threatened by increased wildfire risk and in pinyon-juniper woodlands expanding into formerly high-value sagebrush habitats. Despite widespread use of these treatments, monitoring data to evaluate long-term vegetation responses are often insufficient or absent. Long-term field experiments and remote-sensing based vegetation data may be complementary for assessing treatment effectiveness across temporal and spatial scales. The SageSTEP project experimentally implemented treatments at numerous sites across the Intermountain West and monitored the subsequent response of vegetation cover components with 15+ yr of field observations. However, while pretreatment data were collected in the year of implementation, long-term observations of pretreatment vegetation conditions are lacking in the SageSTEP database. Remote-sensing based time-series maps (1985–2023) of vegetation cover from Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) could fill temporal gaps in monitoring data and scale findings across broader extents. We evaluate the relationship between pretreatment vegetation cover in the RCMAP data and the post-treatment response in both the RCMAP and field observations. Additionally, we explore the correspondence between SageSTEP field observations and RCMAP at various scales, and examine key factors related to the strength of relationships. Overall, SageSTEP and RCMAP data show a similar direction of treatment effect for each component, and to a lesser extent the magnitude of effect. SageSTEP and RCMAP data tended to agree most strongly where treatment effects were strong; when averaged across broader spatial scales; and for components such as tree and bare ground that are more easily distinguished spectrally. Remote sensing tools such as RCMAP, in combination with field-based climate and vegetation observations, can help assess postdisturbance recovery trajectories and facilitate regional decision-making around treatment alternatives, fire risk reduction, and protection of critical habitats.

Great Basin↗
USGS2018

Change in dominance determines herbivore effects on plant biodiversity

Herbivores alter plant biodiversity (species richness) in many of the world’s ecosystems, but the magnitude and the direction of herbivore effects on biodiversity vary widely within and among ecosystems. One current theory predicts that herbivores enhance plant biodiversity at high productivity but have the opposite effect at low productivity. Yet, empirical support for the importance of site productivity as a mediator of these herbivore impacts is equivocal. Here, we synthesize data from 252 large-herbivore exclusion studies, spanning a 20-fold range in site productivity, to test an alternative hypothesis—that herbivore-induced changes in the competitive environment determine the response of plant biodiversity to herbivory irrespective of productivity. Under this hypothesis, when herbivores reduce the abundance (biomass, cover) of dominant species (for example, because the dominant plant is palatable), additional resources become available to support new species, thereby increasing biodiversity. By contrast, if herbivores promote high dominance by increasing the abundance of herbivory-resistant, unpalatable species, then resource availability for other species decreases reducing biodiversity. We show that herbivore-induced change in dominance, independent of site productivity or precipitation (a proxy for productivity), is the best predictor of herbivore effects on biodiversity in grassland and savannah sites. Given that most herbaceous ecosystems are dominated by one or a few species, altering the competitive environment via herbivores or by other means may be an effective strategy for conserving biodiversity in grasslands and savannahs globally.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2025

Scaling from microsite to landscape to resolve litter decomposition dynamics in globally extensive drylands

1. Decomposition controls the release of carbon and nutrients from decaying plant litter into soils or the atmosphere. In most biomes decomposition rates can be accurately predicted with simple mathematical models, but these models have long under-predicted decomposition in globally- extensive drylands. 2. We posit that the exposed surface conditions characteristic of drylands makes litter decomposition uniquely subject to microsite-specific environmental controls and spatially-variable microbial communities. As such, decomposition in dryland ecosystems – which are characterized by extremes in temporal heterogeneity of climate conditions and spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover with corresponding microclimate variability – is a prime example of a macrosystems process that can be addressed by merging field data with new predictive models operating across a hierarchical continuum of spatial scales and process resolutions. 3. A macrosystems approach offers promise to reconcile model-measurement discrepancies by integrating observations and experiments across multiple scales, from microsites (e.g., shrub sub-canopy or intercanopy) to regions (e.g., across a 100s of km2 study site with complex topography, precipitation, and temperature) and ultimately to a continental perspective (e.g., North American drylands). 4. Recent developments in technology and data availability position the scientific community to integrate lab, field, modeling, and remote sensing approaches across a hierarchical range of scales to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of litter and environmental conditions needed to predict decay dynamics at the micro-to-macroscale. This multi-scale approach promises a path forward to resolving a longstanding disconnect between measured and modeled data in dryland litter decomposition. 5. Dryland litter decomposition presents an excellent case study for resolving spatially and temporally complex biogeochemical dynamics through a hierarchical, multidisciplinary macrosystems approach. 6. We focus on dryland litter decomposition, but the hierarchical, multidisciplinary macrosystems approach we outline shows great potential for resolving other spatially and temporally complex biogeochemical processes across a wide range of ecosystems.

Functional Ecology↗
USGS2014

Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis . Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that were consistent with the two-layer hypothesis, and the contribution of shallow water to growth on these plots was consistent with the resource-pool hypothesis. However, shallow-soil water also had negative effects on sagebrush, suggesting an ecohydrological trade-off not considered in these or related theories. The interaction between precipitation timing and soil depth indicates that increased winter precipitation could lead to a mosaic of increases and decreases in A. tridentata across landscapes having variable soil depth.

Idaho↗
USGS2020

Wildfire reveals transient changes to individual traits and population responses of a native bumble bee ( Bombus vosnesenskii )

1. Fire-induced changes in the abundance and distribution of organisms, especially plants, can alter resource landscapes for mobile consumers driving bottom-up effects on their population sizes, morphologies, and reproductive potential. We expect these impacts to be most striking for obligate visitors of plants, like bees and other pollinators, but these impacts can be difficult to interpret due to the limited information provided by forager counts in the absence of survival or fitness proxies. 2. Increased bumble bee worker abundance is often coincident with the pulses of flowers that follow recent fire. However, it is unknown if observed postfire activity is due to underlying population growth or a stable pool of colonies recruiting more foragers to abundant resource patches. This distinction is necessary for determining the net impact of disturbance on bumble bees: are there population-wide responses or do just a few colonies reap the rewards? 3. We estimated colony abundance before and after fire in burned and unburned areas using a genetic mark-recapture framework. We paired colony abundance estimates with measures of body size, counts of queens, and estimates of foraging and dispersal to assess changes in worker size, reproductive output, and landscape-scale movements. 4. Higher floral abundance following fire not only increased forager abundance, but also the number of colonies from which those foragers came. Importantly, despite a larger population size we also observed increased mean worker size. Two years following fire, queen abundance was higher in both burned and unburned sites, potentially due to the dispersal of queens from burned into unburned areas. The effects of fire were transient; within two growing seasons, worker abundance was substantially reduced across the entire sampling area and body sizes were similar between burned and unburned sites. 5. Our results reveal how disturbance can temporarily release populations from resource limitation, boosting the genetic diversity, body size, and reproductive output of populations. Given that the effects of fire on bumble bees acted indirectly through pulsed resource availability, it is likely our results are generalizable to other situations, such as habitat restorations, where resource density is enhanced within the landscape.

California↗
USGS2021

Weather and distance to fire refugia limit landscape‐level occurrence of fungal disease in an exotic annual grass

The enemy release hypothesis proposes that invasion by exotic plant species is driven by their release from natural enemies (i.e. herbivores and pathogens) in their introduced ranges. However, in many cases, natural enemies, which may be introduced or managed to regulate invasive species, may fail to impact target host populations. Landscape heterogeneity, which can affect both the population dynamics of the pathogen and the susceptibility and the density of hosts, may contribute to why pathogens fail to control hosts despite established negative disease impacts. We explored patterns of post‐fire infection of the fungal head‐smut pathogen Ustilago bullata on the invasive annual cheatgrass Bromus tectorum , which has caused the notorious grass‐fire cycle and ecosystem degradation across Western North America. We asked whether infection level was a driver of host density or vice‐versa, and how weather affected infection and how spatial patterns of infection varied with time since fire, using a combination of structural equation modelling (SEM), proportional odds modelling and entropy‐based local indicator of spatial association (ELSA) on data from >700 plots spanning >100,000 ha remeasured annually for 4 years. Observed infection levels increased with greater prior‐year cheatgrass cover, and disease severity did not suppress cheatgrass populations. Warm, humid fall/winters and proximity to fire refugia (unburned patches) were associated with more infections. Infection clustering was most evident 2–3 years following fire with warm‐wet fall–winter conditions and decreased after two drier, colder winters. Synthesis . Severity of fungal disease did not result in measurable reductions of populations of a non‐native, invasive host species, cheatgrass, which suggests that natural enemies may not strongly regulate cheatgrass in its introduced range. Landscape heterogeneity associated with disturbance and weather limited population‐level infection of hosts by the fungal pathogen. Disturbance (specifically wildfire) and variable weather are key components of this and similar invasion systems, and likely need to be considered when evaluating disease dynamics and potential for natural enemies to influence invasion potential.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2018

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS1996

Holocene paleoenvironments of Northeast Iowa

This paper presents the biotic, sedimentary, geomorphic, and climatic history of the upper part of the Roberts Creek Basin, northeastern Iowa for the late—glacial and Holocene, and compares these records with a C—O isotopic sequence from Coldwater Cave, 60 km northwest of Roberts Creek. The biotic record (pollen, vascular plant and bryophyte macrofossils, and insects) is preserved in floodplain alluvium that underlies three constructional surfaces separated by low scarps. Each surface is underlain by a lithologically and temporally distinct alluvial fill. The highest surface is underlain by the Gunder Member of the Deforest Formation, dating from 11 000 to 4000 yr BP; beneath the intermediate level is the Roberts Creek Member, dating from 4000 to 400 yr BP; and the lowest level is underlain by the Camp Creek Member, deposited during the last 380 yr. Pollen and plant macrofossils in the alluvial fill show that a typical late—glacial spruce forest was replaced by Quercus and Ulmus in the early Holocene. This early—to—middle Holocene forest became dominated by mesic elements such as Acer saccharum, Tilia americana, Ostrya virginiana, and Carpinus caroliniana as late as 5500 yr BP; in contrast, the closest sites to the west and north were at their warmest and driest and were covered by prairie vegetation between 6500 and 5500 yr BP. After 5500 yr BP, the forest in the Roberts Creek area was replaced by prairie, as indicated by a rich assemblage of plant macrofossils, although only Ambrosia and Poaceae became abundant in the pollen record. The return of Quercus ≈ 3000 BP (while nonarboreal pollen percentages remained relatively high) indicates that oak savanna prevailed with little change until settlement time. The bryophyte assemblages strongly support the vascular plant record. Rich fen species characteristic of boreal habitats occur only in the late—glacial. They are replaced by a number of deciduous—forest elements when early—to—middle Holocene forests were present, but mosses of forest habitats completely disappear when prairie became dominant. A few deciduous—forest taxa return during the late—Holocene, when oak savanna prevailed. The C—O isotopic record from stalagmite s in Coldwater Cave indicates a relatively stable environment from ≈ 8000 to 5100 yr BP, when the δ 13 C values indicate a change in vegetation dominated by C 3 (predominantly forest) to C 4 (predominantly prairie) plants. About 4900 yr BP, the rise in 18 O values indicates a temperature increase of ≈ 1.5 ° C. The fact that the vegetational change suggested by the δ 13 C values preceded the temperature increase suggests that fire may have been an important factor in converting forest to prairie. Abundant charred seeds and other plant material at Roberts Creek 4830 yr BP support this hypothesis. The 18 O values remain constant from ≈ 5100 to ≈ 3000 yr BP, but the δ 13 C values gradually rise, indicating that soil formed under forest takes at least 2000 yr for its carbon to reach equilibrium after replacement by prairie vegetation. The return of oak to form savanna is reflected in the gradual decline of δ 13 C values in the last 3000 yr BP; O isotopic values drop sharply by ≈ 1 ° C ≈ 2800 yr BP and then were relatively stable. In contrast to the vegetational and isotopic records, the insect assemblages suggest little change in the local environments throughout most of the Holocene. All of the beetle taxa presently occur in eastern Iowa. The relative stability through the Holocene indicates that both open grassland and riparian woodland elements were present throughout. Settlement, land clearing, and land cultivation by EuroAmericans in the region caused rapid erosion of the upland landscape, the deposition of 1—2 m of sediment across the floodplain, a replacement of the native vegetation with ruderal species, a decimation of the native insect fauna, and a degradation of water quality in the stream. These changes in the landscape, vegetation, and insect faunas are as striking as those associated with glacial—interglacial transitions. The timing and direction of changes in the vegetation at Roberts Creek generally correlate well with the carbon and oxygen isotopic record in speleothems at nearby Coldwater Cave and indicate that climate was the main forcing function. However, the contrast between the vegetational change and the stability of the beetle population suggests that climatic changes were subtle. We hypothesize that the factors involved in the Holocene changes were seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation that may not have resulted in much mean annual change. Such changes may have affected the vegetation more than the insect fauna.

Iowa↗
USGS2019

Climate-driven shifts in soil temperature and moisture regimes suggest opportunities to enhance assessments of dryland resilience and resistance

Assessing landscape patterns in climate vulnerability, as well as resilience and resistance to drought, disturbance, and invasive species, requires appropriate metrics of relevant environmental conditions. In dryland systems of western North America, soil temperature and moisture regimes have been widely utilized as an indicator of resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive plant species by providing integrative indicators of long-term site aridity, which relates to ecosystem recovery potential and climatic suitability to invaders. However, the impact of climate change on these regimes, and the suitability of the indicator for estimating resistance and resilience in the context of climate change have not been assessed. Here we utilized a daily time-step, process-based, ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America, and evaluate the impact of these changes on estimation of resilience and resistance. Soil temperature increases in the twenty-first century are substantial, relatively uniform geographically, and robust across climate models. Higher temperatures will expand the areas of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid temperature conditions. Projections for future precipitation are more variable both geographically and among climate models. Nevertheless, future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region. Projections of drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as the central and southern U.S. Great Plains. By contrast, areas with projections of increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas dominated by big sagebrush, particularly the Central and Northern Basin and Range and the Wyoming Basin ecoregions. In addition, many areas dominated by big sagebrush are expected to experience pronounced shifts toward cool season moisture, which will create more area with xeric moisture conditions and less area with ustic conditions. In addition to indicating widespread geographic shifts in the distribution of soil temperature and moisture regimes, our results suggest opportunities for enhancing the integration of these conditions into a quantitative framework for assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystem resilience and resistance that is responsive to long-term projections.

Alberta, Arizona, British Columbia, California, Co↗
USGS2013

Mobile Bay

Mobile Bay is the largest bay found in Alabama’s coastal area (Handley et al., 2007). It was named an Estuary of National Significance in 1995 under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Estuary Program (NEP), and its Comprehensive Conservation Management Plan was completed in 2002. Mobile Bay is 1,070 km 2 (413 miles 2 ) in area and 51 km (32 miles) long, making it the sixth largest estuary in the continental United States (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Its ecosystem provides habitat for more than 300 species of birds, 310 species of fish, 68 species of reptiles, 57 species of mammals, 40 species of amphibians, and 15 species of shrimp (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Mobile Bay lies between the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways (Mobile Bay NEP, 2003). Commercial and residential development and industrial use is heavy in the Mobile Bay area. Although local growth and industrial markets support the Mobile Bay area economy, the resulting environmental damage to the very ecosystem upon which they depend remains a threat to the environment, economy, and population. The Mobile Bay ecosystem boasts high biological diversity and productivity and supports many freshwater and saltwater species of recreational and commercial importance. The great diversity of Mobile Bay reflects the diversity of Alabama, which is home to the largest number of different plant and animal species of all states east of the Mississippi River (Stein, 2002), and is bolstered by the unique climate and geographic conditions surrounding the bay. Freshwater inflow from the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta, ranging from 60,000 to 3,700,000 gallons per second (Wallace, 1996), mixes with saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico, which enters Mobile Bay via wind and tides (Burgan and Engle, 2006). Because of the unique conditions surrounding Mobile Bay, including shallow waters, a dynamic climate, and artificial hydrologic modifications—such as the construction of the Mobile Bay Causeway in the 1920s, which serves as an unintentional barrier between Delta waters north of the Causeway and saline waters south of the Causeway, the salinity of Mobile Bay is highly variable. Mobile Bay receives an average of 165 cm (65 inches) of rain per year from tropical storms, summer thunderstorms, and winter cold fronts (Stout et al., 1998). The climate and geography that have made Mobile Bay so rich in resources have also contributed to the threats surrounding its ecosystem. The extensive amount of rain in Mobile Bay creates large amounts of runoff, polluting the waters with fertilizers, chemicals, sediment, oil, trash, and sewage (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). Tourism, ecotourism, recreational and commercial fishing, recreational boating, shipping, and chemical, pulp, and paper production are significant industries in Mobile Bay and the surrounding areas. Despite the approximate \$3 billion and 55,000 jobs these industries bring into the community (Alabama Tourism Department, 2010), the growth, development, and environmental stress they create are major threats to the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Among the nation’s states, Alabama ranks fifth in number of different species (144 endemic species), second in number of extinctions that have already occurred (90 extinct species) and fourth in number of species at risk for extinction (14.8% at risk out of 4,533 total species; Stein, 2002). Twenty-one of these threatened and endangered species are found in Mobile Bay, whose brackish waters provide a nursery area for many species of vertebrates and invertebrates. Some of these species include the Alabama sturgeon, Gulf sturgeon, heavy pigtoe mussel, inflated heel-splitter mussel, West Indian manatee, Alabama beach mouse, Perdido beach mouse, Alabama red-bellied turtle, gopher tortoise, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, green sea turtle, loggerhead sea turtle, eastern indigo snake, flatwoods salamander, piping plover, red-cockaded woodpecker, and wood stork. Habitat loss underlies the decline of some bird species in Mobile Bay, and large mammals such as the red wolf, Florida panther, and Florida black bear are no longer found in the area. However, some rare species, such as the swallow-tailed kite, sandhill crane, and gopher tortoise can still be found (Duke and Kruczynski, 1992). The value of wetlands in Mobile Bay and the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is still being investigated. Although various monetary valuations of wetlands exist, critics remark that undervaluation of wetlands is inevitable (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008) and that estimates often do not place appropriate value on ecological services (Mitsch and Gosselink, 2000). Additionally, many estimates account only for anthropogenic values. One estimate concludes that one acre of wetlands performs \$3,000 worth of water purification each year (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). With more than 76,890 hectares (190,000 acres) of wetlands in the Mobile Bay area, that equates to a value exceeding one-half billion dollars every year. Tourism, fishing, boating, production, and shipping are significant industries in the Mobile Bay area. More than 90% of fish landed in recreational and commercial fishing in the bay depend on bay habitat, including wetlands, for life requirements (Mobile Bay NEP, 1997). The Port of Mobile is Alabama’s only ocean-ship port (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Baldwin County, on the eastern side of the bay, experienced a population increase of 75% from 1990 to 2007, with an 89% increase in housing units (Mobile Bay NEP, 2008). Development and industry support the Mobile Bay economy, but they depend on the continued health, sustainability, and production of the water and living resources of the Mobile Bay ecosystem. Wetland loss, along with other forms of environmental degradation, remains a threat to the Mobile Bay ecosystem and Mobile Bay’s socioeconomic foundation.

Alabama↗
USGS2009

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in ecotonal northern Alaska, USA, for the years 2003–2100. We compared energy feedbacks associated with increases in biomass to energy feedbacks associated with changes in the duration of the snow-free season. We based our simulations on nine input climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that incorporates biogeochemistry, vegetation dynamics for multiple PFTs (e.g., trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, mosses), multiple vegetation pools, and soil thermal regimes. We found mean increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in all PFTs. Most notably, birch ( Betula spp.) in the shrub tundra showed increases that were at least three times larger than any other PFT. Increases in NPP were positively related to increases in growing-season length in the sedge tundra, but PFTs in boreal forest and shrub tundra showed a significant response to changes in light availability as well as growing-season length. Significant NPP responses to changes in vegetation uptake of nitrogen by PFT indicated that some PFTs were better competitors for nitrogen than other PFTs. While NPP increased, heterotrophic respiration ( R H ) also increased, resulting in decreases or no change in net ecosystem carbon uptake. Greater aboveground biomass from increased NPP produced a decrease in summer albedo, greater regional heat absorption (0.34 ± 0.23 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 [mean ± SD]), and a positive feedback to climate warming. However, the decrease in albedo due to a shorter snow season (−5.1 ± 1.6 d/10 yr) resulted in much greater regional heat absorption (3.3 ± 1.24 W·m −2 ·10 yr −1 ) than that associated with increases in vegetation. Through quantifying feedbacks associated with changes in vegetation and those associated with changes in the snow season length, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the climate system.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Evapotranspiration and water balance of an anthropogenic coastal desert wetland: responses to fire, inflows and salinities

Evapotranspiration (ET) and other water balance components were estimated for Cienega de Santa Clara, an anthropogenic brackish wetland in the delta of the Colorado River in Mexico. The marsh is in the Biosphere Reserve of the Upper Gulf of California and Delta of the Colorado River, and supports a high abundance and diversity of wildlife. Over 95% of its water supply originates as agricultural drain water from the USA, sent for disposal in Mexico. This study was conducted from 2009 to 2011, before, during and after a trial run of the Yuma Desalting Plant in the USA, which will divert water from the wetland and replace it with brine from the desalting operation. The goal was to estimate the main components in the water budget to be used in creating management scenarios for this marsh. We used a remote sensing algorithm to estimate ET from meteorological data and Enhanced Vegetation Index values from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra satellite. ET estimates from the MODIS method were then compared to results from a mass balance of water and salt inflows and outflows over the study period. By both methods, mean annual ET estimates ranged from 2.6 to 3.0 mm d −1 , or 50 to 60% of reference ET (ET o ). Water entered at a mean salinity of 2.6 g L −1 TDS and mean salinity in the wetland was 3.73 g L −1 TDS over the 33 month study period. Over an annual cycle, 54% of inflows supported ET while the rest exited the marsh as outflows; however, in winter when ET was low, up to 90% of the inflows exited the marsh. An analysis of ET estimates over the years 2000–2011 showed that annual ET was proportional to the volume of inflows, but was also markedly stimulated by fires. Spring fires in 2006 and 2011 burned off accumulated thatch, resulting in vigorous growth of new leaves and a 30% increase in peak summer ET compared to non-fire years. Following fires, peak summer ET estimates were equal to ET o , while in non-fire years peak ET was equal to only one-half to two-thirds of ET o . Over annual cycles, estimated ET was always lower than ET o , because T. domingensis is dormant in winter and shades the water surface, reducing direct evaporation. Thus, ET of a Typha marsh is likely to be less than an open water surface under most conditions.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2021

Detecting shrub recovery in sagebrush steppe: Comparing Landsat-derived maps with field data on historical wildfires

Background The need for basic information on spatial distribution and abundance of plant species for research and management in semiarid ecosystems is frequently unmet. This need is particularly acute in the large areas impacted by megafires in sagebrush steppe ecosystems, which require frequently updated information about increases in exotic annual invaders or recovery of desirable perennials. Remote sensing provides one avenue for obtaining this information. We considered how a vegetation model based on Landsat satellite imagery (30 m pixel resolution; annual images from 1985 to 2018) known as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) “Back-in-Time” fractional component time-series, compared with field-based vegetation measurements. The comparisons focused on detection thresholds of post-fire emergence of fire-intolerant Artemisia L . species, primarily A. tridentata Nutt. (big sagebrush). Sagebrushes are scarce after fire and their paucity over vast burn areas creates challenges for detection by remote sensing. Measurements were made extensively across the Great Basin, USA, on eight burn scars encompassing ~500 000 ha with 80 plots sampled, and intensively on a single 113 000 ha burned area where we sampled 1454 plots. Results Estimates of sagebrush cover from the NLCD were, as a mean, 6.5% greater than field-based estimates, and variance around this mean was high. The contrast between sagebrush cover measurements in field data and NLCD data in burned landscapes was considerable given that maximum cover values of sagebrush were ~35% in the field. It took approximately four to six years after the fire for NLCD to detect consistent, reliable signs of sagebrush recovery, and sagebrush cover estimated by NLCD ranged from 3 to 13% (equating to 0 to 7% in field estimates) at these times. The stabilization of cover and presence four to six years after fire contrasted with previous field-based studies that observed fluctuations over longer time periods. Conclusions While results of this study indicated that further improvement of remote sensing applications would be necessary to assess initial sagebrush recovery patterns, they also showed that Landsat satellite imagery detects the influence of burns and that the NLCD data tend to show faster rates of recovery relative to field observations.

Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2021

Fire frequency impacts soil properties and processes in sagebrush steppe ecosystems of the Columbia Basin

Increased fire frequency in semi-arid ecosystems can alter biochemical soil properties and soil processes that underpin ecosystem structure and functioning, thus threatening native plant communities and the species that rely on them. However, there is much uncertainty about the magnitude of change as soils are exposed to more fires, because soil recovery and changes in fire severity following a first fire mediate the impact of successive fires on soil properties. With this study we aim to evaluate how increased fire frequency affects soil biochemical properties (i.e. soil pH, soil organic matter (SOM), soil organic carbon (SOC), soil structure and mineral N) and processes (i.e. microbial and enzymatic activity) in a sagebrush-steppe ecosystem located in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA. During 2016, we collected soils from once (2012), twice (2003 and 2012), and thrice (2003, 2007, and 2012) burned areas, enabling us to test the hypothesis that increasing fire frequency will exacerbate the impact of fire on soil properties and processes. Our study yielded three main results: (1) fire reduced the total soil C concentration and soil C in aggregates relative to unburned soil, but only when soil was exposed to fire once (i.e. the most recent fire), (2) compared to the unburned soils, SOM contents, enzyme activity and microbial CO 2 respiration were suppressed in the once and thrice burned soils, but not in the twice burned soils, and (3) fire increased NO 3 − -N contents across the once and twice burned sites, and reduced enzyme activity associated with N cycling in the thrice burned sites. Taken together, our findings suggest that a one-time fire in this shrub dominated semi-arid ecosystem significantly changes soil biochemical attributes and microbially driven processes. With sufficient time between fires, these structural and functional properties can partially recover, and this may persist even after a second fire, but recovery is limited when a third fire creates an additional disturbance at a shorter time interval. Furthermore, while soil C pools and microbial decomposition processes were able to recover with sufficient time, greater soil resource availability prevailed in soil across all fire frequencies, indicating that fire is likely to promote invasion and reduce ecosystem stability, even when other soil properties recover.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Post-fire reference densities for giant sequoia seedlings in a new era of high-severity wildfires

Many forests globally are experiencing increases in large, high-severity wildfires, often with increasingly inadequate post-fire tree regeneration. To identify areas that might need post-fire planting, forest managers have a growing need for seedling reference densities – the natural seedling densities expected to be adequate to regenerate a forest – to compare with observed post-fire seedling densities. The most useful reference densities will meet five criteria: they will (1) be specific to natural post-fire reproduction rather than planted seedlings (because planted seedlings can have substantially greater survival than natural seedlings, thus underestimating adequate natural reproduction), (2) apply to the first few years following fire (when management decisions and actions are most likely), (3) be specific to each of those post-fire years (because post-fire seedling densities can change rapidly with time since fire), (4) be associated with estimates of uncertainty, and (5) include consideration of novel environmental conditions during management applications (because most reference densities will be based on data collected under more environmentally benign conditions). The world’s most massive tree species, the giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) of California’s Sierra Nevada, recently experienced historically unprecedented wildfires that killed an estimated 13–19% of mature sequoias across their native range. Seedlings germinating after these fires then experienced exceptional summer heat and the two most severe summer droughts of the 121-year historical record. To help inform management responses to these events, we used seedling censuses from past fires (mostly prescribed fires) to calculate sequoia seedling reference densities meeting the five criteria. The reference densities had three striking features, which are partly attributable to giant sequoia’s status as a pioneer species. First, despite being inherently conservative, the reference densities were quite high. For example, mean first-year reference density was 172,599 seedlings ha −1 . Second, reference densities declined precipitously with time since fire: the mean fifth-year reference density was only 5% of the mean first-year density. Third, the reference densities were associated with relatively substantial uncertainty, a consequence of density variations among seedling plots; for example, the 95% credible interval for first-year reference density was 64,377 to 313,438 seedlings ha −1 . Despite this uncertainty, a case-study sequoia grove that recently burned in a high-severity wildfire had second-year post-fire seedling densities that were significantly (and dramatically) lower than the corresponding second-year reference density, suggesting inadequate post-fire reproduction. Our results highlight the value of the five criteria for reference densities – criteria that, in current practice, are rarely all met.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

Near-field receiving water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California: 2011

Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Macoma petalum (formerly reported as Macoma balthica), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in South San Francisco Bay, Calif. This report includes the data collected by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists for the period January 2011 to December 2011. These data serve as the basis for the City of Palo Alto's Near-Field Receiving Water Monitoring Program, initiated in 1994. Following significant reductions in the late 1980s, silver (Ag) and copper (Cu) concentrations in sediment and M. petalum appear to have stabilized. Data for other metals, including chromium, mercury, nickel, selenium, and zinc, have been collected since 1994. Over this period, concentrations of these elements have remained relatively constant, aside from seasonal variation that is common to all elements. In 2011, concentrations of Ag and Cu in M. petalum varied seasonally in response to a combination of site-specific metal exposures and annual growth and reproduction, as reported previously. Seasonal patterns for other elements, including Cr, Hg, Ni, Se, and Zn, were generally similar in timing and magnitude as those for Ag and Cu. In 2011, metal concentrations in both sediments and clam tissue were among the lowest concentrations on record. This record suggests that regional-scale factors now largely control sedimentary and bioavailable concentrations of Ag and Cu, as well as other elements of regulatory interest, at the Palo Alto site. Analyses of the benthic community structure of a mudflat in South San Francisco Bay over a 38-year period show that changes in the community have occurred concurrent with reduced concentrations of metals in the sediment and in the tissues of the biosentinel clam, M. petalum, from the same area. Analysis of the M. petalum community shows increases in reproductive activity concurrent with the decline in metal concentrations in the tissues of this organism. Reproductive activity is presently stable (2011), with almost all animals initiating reproduction in the fall and spawning the following spring. The community has shifted from being dominated by several opportunistic species to a community where the species are more similar in abundance, a pattern that indicates a more stable community that is subjected to fewer stressors. In addition, two of the opportunistic species (Ampelisca abdita and Streblospio benedicti) that brood their young and live on the surface of the sediment in tubes have shown a continual decline in dominance coincident with the decline in metals; both species had short-lived rebounds in abundance in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Heteromastus filiformis (a subsurface polychaete worm that lives in the sediment, consumes sediment and organic particles residing in the sediment, and reproduces by laying its eggs on or in the sediment) showed a concurrent increase in dominance and, in the last several years before 2008, showed a stable population. H. filiformis abundance increased slightly in 2011. An unidentified disturbance occurred on the mudflat in early 2008 that resulted in the loss of the benthic animals, except for those deep-dwelling animals like Macoma petalum. Animals immediately returned to the mudflat in 2008, which was the first indication that the disturbance was not due to a persistent toxin or to anoxia. The reproductive mode of most species present in 2011 is reflective of the species that were available either as pelagic larvae or as mobile adults. Although egg layers were lower in number in this group, the authors hypothesize that these species will return slowly as more species move back into the area. The use of functional ecology was highlighted in the 2011 benthic community data, which show that the animals that have now returned to the mudflat are those that can respond successfully to a physical, nontoxic disturbance. Today, community data show a mix of animals that consume the sediment, filter feed, have pelagic larvae that must survive landing on the sediment, and brood their young. USGS scientists continue to observe the community's response to the 2008 defaunation event because it allows them to examine the response of the community to a natural disturbance (possible causes include sediment accretion or freshwater inundation) and compare this recovery to the long-term recovery observed in the 1970s when the decline in sediment pollutants was the dominating factor.

California↗
USGS2013

Near-field receiving water monitoring of trace metals and a benthic community near the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant in south San Francisco Bay, California, 2012

Trace-metal concentrations in sediment and in the clam Macoma petalum (formerly reported as Macoma balthica), clam reproductive activity, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were investigated in a mudflat 1 kilometer south of the discharge of the Palo Alto Regional Water Quality Control Plant (PARWQCP) in South San Francisco Bay, Calif. This report includes the data collected by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists for the period January to December 2012. These data serve as the basis for the City of Palo Alto’s Near-Field Receiving Water Monitoring Program, initiated in 1994. Following significant reductions in the late 1980s, silver (Ag) and copper (Cu) concentrations in sediment and in M. petalum appear to have stabilized. Data for other metals, including chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), and zinc (Zn), have been collected since 1994. Over this period, concentrations of these elements have remained relatively constant, aside from seasonal variation that is common to all elements. In 2012, concentrations of Ag and Cu in M. petalum varied seasonally in response to a combination of site-specific metal exposures and annual growth and reproduction, as reported for previous time periods. Seasonal patterns for other elements, including Cr, Ni, Zn, Hg, and Se were generally similar in timing and magnitude as those for Ag and Cu. In 2012, metal concentrations in both sediments and clam tissue were among the lowest concentrations on record. This record suggests that regional-scale factors now largely control sedimentary and bioavailable concentrations of Ag and Cu, as well as other elements of regulatory interest, at the Palo Alto site. Analyses of the benthic community structure of a mudflat in South San Francisco Bay over a 39-year period show that changes in the community have occurred concurrent with reduced concentrations of metals in the sediment and in the tissues of the biosentinel clam, M. petalum, from the same area. Analysis of the M. petalum community shows increases in reproductive activity concurrent with the decline in metal concentrations in the tissues of this organism. Reproductive activity is presently stable (2012), with almost all animals initiating reproduction in the fall and spawning the following spring. The community has shifted from being dominated by several opportunistic species to a community where the species are more similar in abundance, a pattern that indicates a more stable community that is subjected to fewer stressors. In addition, two of the opportunistic species (Ampelisca abdita and Streblospio benedicti) that brood their young and live on the surface of the sediment in tubes have shown a continual decline in dominance coincident with the decline in metals; both species had short-lived rebounds in abundance in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Heteromastus filiformis (a subsurface polychaete worm that lives in the sediment, consumes sediment and organic particles residing in the sediment, and reproduces by laying its eggs on or in the sediment) showed a concurrent increase in dominance and, in the last several years before 2008, showed a stable population. H. filiformis abundance increased slightly in 2011–2012. An unidentified disturbance occurred on the mudflat in early 2008 that resulted in the loss of the benthic animals, except for those deep-dwelling animals like Macoma petalum. Animals immediately returned to the mudflat in 2008, which was the first indication that the disturbance was not due to a persistent toxin or to anoxia. The reproductive mode of most species present in 2012 is reflective of the species that were available either as pelagic larvae or as mobile adults. Although oviparous species were lower in number in this group, the authors hypothesize that these species will return slowly as more species move back into the area. The use of functional ecology was highlighted in the 2012 benthic community data, which show that the animals that have now returned to the mudflat are those that can respond successfully to a physical, nontoxic disturbance. Today, community data show a mix of animals that consume the sediment, filter feed, have pelagic larvae that must survive landing on the sediment, and brood their young. USGS scientists continue to observe the community’s response to the 2008 defaunation event because it allows them to examine the response of the community to a natural disturbance (possible causes include sediment accretion or freshwater inundation) and compare this recovery to the long-term recovery observed in the 1970s when the decline in sediment pollutants was the dominating factor.

California↗