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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

Forcing of large-scale cycles of coastal change at the entrance to Willapa Bay, Washington

Anomalous morphological features within large estuaries may be: (1) recorders of external forces that periodically overwhelm the normal morphodynamic responses to estuarine energy fluxes, and (2) possible predictors of cycles of future coastal change. At the entrance to Willapa Bay, Washington, chronic beach erosion and frequent coastal flooding are related to the historical northward channel migration that destroyed the protective sand spits of Cape Shoalwater. Northward channel migration since the late 1800s conforms to the long-term net sediment transport direction. What requires explanation is periodic southward relocation of the trunk channel by as much as 5 km, and attendant construction of moderately large sand spits on the north side of the bay such as Kindred Island, Tokeland Peninsula, and Cape Shoalwater. Both autocyclic and allocyclic processes may have been responsible for trunk channel realignment and associated spit deposition. Channel recycling may occur when the main channel becomes overextended to the north and the tidal flow is inefficient because of its decreased gradient and increased susceptibility to shoaling by the growth and migration of tidal sand ridges. Under those conditions trunk channel relocation would be facilitated by increased wave heights and water levels of El Niño winter storms. However, co-seismic subsidence is the most likely mechanism for abruptly increasing sand supply and longshore transport that would favor discrete periods of channel relocation and spit deposition. Unless external forcing changes sand supply and predominant sediment transport directions in the future, the relative rise in sea level, frequent winter storms, and local deficit in the sand budget assure that beach erosion will continue at the mouth of this large estuary.

Washington↗

Trends in long-period seismicity related to magmatic fluid compositions

Sound speeds and densities are calculated for three different types of fluids: gas-gas mixture; ash-gas mixture; and bubbly liquid. These fluid properties are used to calculate the impedance contrast (Z) and crack stiffness (C) in the fluid-driven crack model (Chouet: J. Geophys. Res., 91 (1986) 13,967; 101 (1988) 4375; A seismic model for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor. In: Gasparini, P., Scarpa, R., Aki, K. (Eds.), Volcanic Seismology, IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology, Springer, Berlin, 3133). The fluid-driven crack model describes the far-field spectra of long-period (LP) events as modes of resonance of the crack. Results from our calculations demonstrate that ash-laden gas mixtures have fluid to solid density ratios comparable to, and fluid to solid velocity ratios lower than bubbly liquids (gas-volume fractions <10%). This difference results in synthetic far-field spectra with higher impedance contrasts and narrower spectral bandwidths for ash-laden gas mixture than spectra for bubbly liquids. Spectral characteristics are described in terms of the quality factor Q-1. Q-1 is measured by the ratio of the frequency of the dominant spectral peak to the bandwidth of the peak measured at one half of its amplitude. This factor expresses the losses of energy due to elastic radiation Q-1r and other dissipative mechanisms Q-1i at the source, Q-1 = Q-1r + Q-1i. Spectra for LP events recorded at active volcanoes such as Galeras in Colombia and Kilauea in Hawaii, have Q-1 factors in the range of 0.1-0.002. The Q-1r factors due to radiation loss calculated for a sphere filled with a H2O-CO2 or H2O-SO2 gas mixture, vary between 0.0015 and 0.0040 with a change in wt% H2O at 800-1600 K and 10-50 MPa. For gas-rich mixtures, Q-1r has a strong dependence on resonator geometry (spherical versus rectangular). The spectra from a resonating sphere filled with gas-rich mixture yields values of Q-1r an order of magnitude smaller than those from a rectangular crack. For a resonating crack filled with an ash-gas mixture (or pseudogas), Q-1r varies parabolically from ???0.006 for an ash-rich mixture, to 0.0015 or 0.0023 for a H2O-rich or CO2-rich mixture at 800 K and 25 MPa. For low (<20%) gas-volume fraction fluids (foams, bubbly fluids and ash-rich pseudogases), the magnitudes for Q-1r are independent of crack geometry. Spectra associated with a foam (gas-volume fractions 10-90%) or bubbly basalt (gas-volume fractions <10%) may have a dominant spectral peak with values of Q-1r on the order of 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. The spectra from a resonating sphere filled with a foam containing >20% gas-volume fraction yields values of Q-1r similar to those for a rectangular crack. As with gas-gas and ash-gas mixtures, an increase in mass fraction narrows the bandwidth of the dominant mode and shifts the spectra to lower frequencies. Including energy losses due to dissipative processes in a bubbly liquid increases attenuation. Attenuation may also be higher in ash-gas mixtures and foams if the effects of momentum and mass transfer between the phases were considered in the calculations. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B. V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Fault-slip distribution of the 1995 Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, earthquake

Broadband teleseismic P waves have been analyzed to recover the rupture history of the large ( M S 7.4) Colima-Jalisco, Mexico, shallow interplate thrust earthquake of 9 October 1995. Ground-displacement records in the period range of 1-60 sec are inverted using a linear, finite-fault waveform inversion procedure that allows a variable dislocation duration on a prescribed fault. The method is applied using both a narrow fault that simulates a line source with a dislocation window of 50 sec and a wide fault with a possible rise time of up to 20 sec that additionally allows slip updip and downdip from the hypocenter. The line-source analysis provides a spatio-temporal image of the slip distribution consisting of several large sources located northwest of the hypocenter and spanning a range of rupture velocities. The two-dimensional finite-fault inversion allows slip over this rupture-velocity range and indicates that the greatest coseismic displacement (3-4 m) is located between 70 and 130 km from the hypocenter at depths shallower than about 15 km. Slip in this shallow region consists of two major sources, one of which is delayed by about 10 sec relative to a coherent propagation of rupture along the plate interface. These two slip sources account for about one-third of the total P -wave seismic moment of 8.3 × 10 27 dyne-cm ( M w 7.9) and may have been responsible for the local tsunami observed along the coast following the earthquake.

Colima-Jalisco↗

Detection of underground voids in Ohio by use of geophysical methods

Geophysical methods are generally classified as electrical, potential field, and seismic methods. Each method type relies on contrasts of physical properties in the subsurface. Forward models based on the physical properties of air- and water-filled voids within common geologic materials indicate that several geophysical methods are technically feasible for detection of subsurface voids in Ohio, but ease of use and interpretation varies widely between the methods. Ground-penetrating radar is the most rapid and cost-effective method for collection of subsurface data in areas associated with voids under roadways. Electrical resistivity, gravity, or seismic reflection methods have applications for direct delineation of voids, but data-collection and analytical procedures are more time consuming. Electrical resistivity, electromagnetic, or magnetic methods may be useful in locating areas where conductive material, such as rail lines, are present in abandoned underground coal mines. Other electrical methods include spontaneous potential and very low frequency (VLF); these latter two methods are considered unlikely candidates for locating underground voids in Ohio. Results of ground-penetrating radar surveys at three highway sites indicate that subsurface penetration varies widely with geologic material type and amount of cultural interference. Two highway sites were chosen over abandoned underground coal mines in eastern Ohio. A third site in western Ohio was chosen in an area known to be underlain by naturally occurring voids in lime stone. Ground-penetrating radar surveys at Interstate 470, in Belmont County, Ohio, indicate subsurface penetration of less than 15 feet over a mined coal seam that was known to vary in depth from 0 to 40 feet. Although no direct observations of voids were made, anomalous areas that may be related to collapse structures above voids were indicated. Cultural interference dominated the radar records at Interstate 70, Guernsey County, Ohio, where coal was mined under the site at a depth of about 50 feet. Interference from overhead powerlines, the field vehicle, and guardrails complicated an interpretation of the radar records where the depth of penetration was estimated to be less than 5 feet. Along State Route 33, in Logan County, Ohio, bedding planes and structures possibly associated with dissolution of limestone were profiled with ground-penetrating radar. Depth of penetration was estimated to be greater than 50 feet.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Advancing subsurface investigations beyond the borehole with passive seismic horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and electromagnetic geophysical methods at transportation infrastructure sites in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Transportation (NHDOT), surveyed transportation infrastructure sites using rapidly deployable geophysical methods to assess benefits added to a comprehensive site characterization with traditional geotechnical techniques. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral-ratio (HVSR) passive-seismic and electromagnetic-induction (EMI) methods were applied at 4 sites including a roadway-stream crossing, roadway-bridge rail-trail crossing, commuter-parking expansion, and a railroad-adjacent river-cutbank slope-failure site. Additionally, ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) was used at the slope-failure site. Typically, subsurface geotechnical properties are determined from boring data; however, borings are often spaced hundreds of feet apart, potentially missing important spatial variability between boreholes. Geotechnical site characterization including geophysical surveys helped provide a more accurate characterization by using continuous or near continuous profiling. Three-component ambient noise measured with HVSR methods were used to determine resonance frequency and estimate sediment thickness. The method works when there is a strong shear-wave acoustic impedance contrast (> 2:1) between sediment and bedrock. Sediment thickness estimates from HVSR measurements were combined with boring data to make detailed maps of the bedrock surface altitude. The bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface was indirectly measured with EMI methods and was used to identify lithologic variations, shallow bedrock, and conductive groundwater. Ground penetrating radar, which transmits pulses of electromagnetic energy into the subsurface and records the amplitude and timing of reflected signals, was used to identify bedding and changes in lithology or water content. By combining geophysical and boring data analyses, transportation projects produced more spatially comprehensive representations of geotechnical subsurface conditions than would be determined using conventional borings alone.

New Hampshire↗

Three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure derived from local earthquakes at the Katmai group of volcanoes, Alaska

The three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure beneath the Katmai group of volcanoes is determined by inversion of more than 10,000 rays from over 1000 earthquakes recorded on a local 18 station short-period network between September 1996 and May 2001. The inversion is well constrained from sea level to about 6 km below sea level and encompasses all of the Katmai volcanoes; Martin, Mageik, Trident, Griggs, Novarupta, Snowy, and Katmai caldera. The inversion reduced the average RMS travel-time error from 0.22 s for locations from the standard one-dimensional model to 0.13 s for the best three-dimensional model. The final model, from the 6th inversion step, reveals a prominent low velocity zone (3.6–5.0 km/s) centered at Katmai Pass and extending from Mageik to Trident volcanoes. The anomaly has values about 20–25% slower than velocities outboard of the region (5.0–6.5 km/s). Moderately low velocities (4.5–6.0 km/s) are observed along the volcanic axis between Martin and Katmai Caldera. Griggs volcano, located about 10 km behind (northwest of) the volcanic axis, has unremarkable velocities (5.0–5.7 km/s) compared to non-volcanic regions. The highest velocities are observed between Snowy and Griggs volcanoes (5.5–6.5 km/s). Relocated hypocenters for the best 3-D model are shifted significantly relative to the standard model with clusters of seismicity at Martin volcano shifting systematically deeper by about 1 km to depths of 0 to 4 km below sea level. Hypocenters for the Katmai Caldera are more tightly clustered, relocating beneath the 1912 scarp walls. The relocated hypocenters allow us to compare spatial frequency-size distributions ( b -values) using one-dimensional and three-dimensional models. We find that the distribution of b is significantly changed for Martin volcano, which was characterized by variable values (0.8 < b < 2.0) with standard locations and more uniform values (0.8 < b < 1.2) after relocation. Other seismic clusters at Mageik (1.2 < b < 2.2), Trident (0.5 < b < 1.5) and Katmai Caldera (0.8 < b < 1.8) had stable b -values indicating the robustness of the observations. The strong high b -value region at Mageik volcano is mainly associated with an earthquake swarm in October, 1996 that possibly indicates a shallow intrusion or influx of gas. The new velocity and spatial b -value results, in conjunction with prior gravity (Bouguer anomalies up to − 40 mgal) and interferometry (several cm uplift) data, provide strong evidence in favor of partially molten rock at shallow depths beneath the Mageik–Katmai–Novarupta region. Moderately low velocities beneath Martin and Katmai suggest that old, mostly solidified intrusions exist beneath these volcanoes. Higher relative velocities beneath the Griggs and Snowy vents suggest that no magma is resident in the shallow crust beneath these volcanoes.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

GSPy: A new toolbox and data standard for Geophysical Datasets

The diversity of geophysical methods and datatypes, as well as the isolated nature of various specialties (e.g., electromagnetic, seismic, potential fields) leads to a profusion of separate data file formats and documentation conventions. This can hinder cooperation and reduce the impact of datasets researchers have invested in heavily to collect and prepare. An open, portable, and well-supported community data standard could greatly improve the interoperability, transferability, and long-term archival of geophysical data. Airborne geophysical methods particularly need an open and accessible data standard, and they exemplify the complexity that is common in geophysical datasets where critical auxiliary information on the survey and system parameters are required to fully utilize and understand the data. Here, we propose a new Geophysical Standard, termed the GS convention, that leverages the well-established and widely used NetCDF file format and builds on the Climate and Forecasts (CF) metadata convention. We also present an accompanying open-source Python package, GSPy, to provide methods and workflows for building the GS-standardized NetCDF files, importing and exporting between common data formats, preparing input files for geophysical inversion software, and visualizing data and inverted models. By using the NetCDF format, handled through the Xarray Python package, and following the CF conventions, we standardize how metadata is recorded and directly stored with the data, from general survey and system information down to specific variable attributes. Utilizing the hierarchical nature of NetCDF, GS-formatted files are organized with a root Survey group that contains global metadata about the geophysical survey. Data are then organized into subgroups beneath Survey and are categorized as Tabular or Raster depending on the geometry and point of origin for the data. Lastly, the standard ensures consistency in constructing and tracking coordinate reference systems, which is vital for accurate portability and analysis. Development and adoption of a NetCDF-based data standard for geophysical surveys can greatly improve how these complex datasets are shared and utilized, making the data more accessible to a broader science community. The architecture of GSPy can be easily transferred to additional geophysical datatypes and methods in future releases.

Frontiers in Earth Science - Environmental Informa↗

S2HM of buildings in USA

The evolution of seismic structural-health monitoring (S 2 HM) of buildings in the USA is described in this chapter, emphasizing real-time monitoring. Rapid and accurate assessment of post-earthquake building damage is of paramount importance to stakeholders (including owners, occupants, city officials, and rescue teams). Relying merely on rapid visual inspection could result in serious damage being missed because it is hidden by building finishes and fireproofing. Absent visible damage to a building’s frame, most steel or reinforced-concrete moment-frame buildings will be green-tagged based on limited visual indications of deformation, such as damage to partitions or glazing. Contrary, uncertainty in judging extent of structural damage may lead an inspector toward a relatively conservative tag, such as a red tag. In such cases, expensive, intrusive, and time-consuming inspections may be recommended to building owners (e.g., following the M w 6.7 1994 Northridge, Calif., earthquake, approximately 300 buildings were subjected to costly inspection of connections (FEMA 352)). Using real-time data-driven computation of drift ratios as the parametric indicator of structural deformation and damage to a structure could be of great value to minimize potential judgmental errors in such assessments. Recorded sensor data are an indication of performance, and performance-based design standards stipulate that the amplitude of relative displacement of a building’s roof (with respect to its base) indicates performance. Establishing sound criteria for performance is the most important issue for S 2 HM process, and since 2000 (in the USA), using real-time computed drift ratios and acceptable threshold criteria form the basis for almost all applications in S 2 HM.

Book chapter↗

Volcano Hazards Assessment for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) is a very large shield-shaped volcano located in northern California where it forms part of the southern Cascade Range of volcanoes. It has erupted hundreds of times during its half-million-year history, including nine times during the past 5,200 years, most recently 950 years ago. This record represents one of the highest eruptive frequencies among Cascade volcanoes and includes a wide variety of different types of lava flows and at least two explosive eruptions that produced widespread fallout. Compared to those of a typical Cascade stratovolcano, eruptive vents at MLV are widely distributed, extending 55 km north-south and 40 km east-west. The total area covered by MLV lavas is >2,000 km2, about 10 times the area of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Judging from its long eruptive history and its frequent eruptions in recent geologic time, MLV will erupt again. Although the probability of an eruption is very small in the next year (one chance in 3,600), the consequences of some types of possible eruptions could be severe. Furthermore, the documented episodic behavior of the volcano indicates that once it becomes active, the volcano could continue to erupt for decades, or even erupt intermittently for centuries, and very likely from multiple vents scattered across the edifice. Owing to its frequent eruptions, explosive nature, and proximity to regional infrastructure, MLV has been designated a 'high threat volcano' by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity, but with only two seismometers located high on the volcano and no other USGS monitoring equipment in place, MLV is at present among the most poorly monitored Cascade volcanoes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evolution of the December 14, 1989 precursory long-period event swarm at Redoubt volcano, Alaska

The intermittency pattern and evolution in waveforms of long-period (LP) seismic events during the intense, 23-h swarm that preceded the December 14, 1989 eruption of Redoubt volcano are investigated. Utilizing cross correlation to exploit the high degree of similarity among waveforms, a substantially more complete event catalog is generated than was available from near realtime detection based on short-term/long-term amplitude ratios, which was saturated by the high rate of activity. The temporal magnitude distribution of the predominant LP events is found to have an unusual banded structure in which the average magnitude of each band slowly increases and then decreases through time. A bifurcation that appears in the uppermost band shortly after the peak in magnitudes is characterized by a quasi-periodicity in intermittency and magnitude that is reminiscent of one of the classic routes to chaotic behavior in some non-linear systems. The waveforms of the predominant events evolve slowly but unsteadily through time. These gradual changes appear to result from variations in the relative amplitudes of spectral peaks that remain stable in frequency, which suggests that they are due to differential excitation of a single, resonant source. Two other previously unrecognized, repetitive waveforms are also identified, but the signals from these secondary events are not clearly recorded at distances beyond the closest station. Similarities among the spectra of the predominant and secondary events suggest that the signals from these events also could represent different modes of exciting the same source. Significant changes in the rates and the sizes of the largest of these secondary events appear to coincide with the peak in the size distribution of the predominant LPs. At least some of the non-repetitive LP waveforms in the swarm appear to be the result of the superposition of signals from the rapid repetition of predominant LP source, thus placing a constraint on the repeat time of the triggering mechanism for this source. A lone hybrid event, which has a waveform character intermediate between the predominant LP events and high-frequency volcano-tectonic events, was also identified in the swarm; the occurrence of this event provides important evidence that the low-frequency character of the LP events is a source rather than a path or site effect. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

‘Cape capture’: Geologic data and modeling results suggest the Holocene loss of a Carolina Cape

For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes—Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain—off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fluvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was flooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of ‘cape capture.’ The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history.

North Carolina↗

High-resolution chirp and mini-sparker seismic-reflection data from the southern California continental shelf — Gaviota to Mugu Canyon

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected high-resolution shallow seismic-reflection data in September, 2007, and June-July, 2008, from the continental shelf offshore of southern California between Gaviota and Mugu Canyon, in support of the California's State Waters Mapping Program. Data were acquired using SIG 2mille mini-sparker and Edgetech chirp 512 instruments aboard the R/V Zephyr (Sept. 2007) and R/V Parke Snavely (June-July 2008). The survey area spanned approximately 120 km of coastline, and included shore-perpendicular transects spaced 1.0-1.5 km apart that extended offshore to at least the 3-mile limit of State waters, in water depths ranging from 10 m near shore to 300 m near the offshore extent of Mugu and Hueneme submarine canyons. Subbottom acoustic penetration spanned tens to several hundred meters, variable by location. This report includes maps of the surveyed transects, linked to Google Earth software, as well as digital data files showing images of each transect in SEG-Y, JPEG, and TIFF formats. The images of sediment deposits, tectonic structure, and natural-gas seeps collected during this study provide geologic information that is essential to coastal zone and resource management at Federal, State and local levels, as well as to future research on the sedimentary, tectonic, and climatic record of southern California.

California↗

National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 offshore India; gas hydrate systems as revealed by hydrocarbon gas geochemistry

The National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 (NGHP-01) targeted gas hydrate accumulations offshore of the Indian Peninsula and along the Andaman convergent margin. The primary objectives of coring were to understand the geologic and geochemical controls on the accumulation of methane hydrate and their linkages to underlying petroleum systems. Four areas were investigated: 1) the Kerala-Konkan Basin in the eastern Arabian Sea, 2) the Mahanadi and 3) Krishna-Godavari Basins in the western Bay of Bengal, and 4) the Andaman forearc Basin in the Andaman Sea. Upward flux of methane at three of the four of the sites cored during NGHP-01 is apparent from the presence of seafloor mounds, seismic evidence for upward gas migration, shallow sub-seafloor geochemical evidence of methane oxidation, and near-seafloor gas composition that resembles gas from depth. The Kerala-Konkan Basin well contained only CO 2 with no detectable hydrocarbons suggesting there is no gas hydrate system here. Gas and gas hydrate from the Krishna-Godavari Basin is mainly microbial methane with δ 13 C values ranging from −58.9 to −78.9‰, with small contributions from microbial ethane (−52.1‰) and CO 2 . Gas from the Mahanadi Basin was mainly methane with lower concentrations of C 2 -C 5 hydrocarbons (C 1 /C 2 ratios typically >1000) and CO 2 . Carbon isotopic compositions that ranged from −70.7 to −86.6‰ for methane and −62.9 to −63.7‰ for ethane are consistent with a microbial gas source; however deeper cores contained higher molecular weight hydrocarbon gases suggesting a small contribution from a thermogenic gas source. Gas composition in the Andaman Basin was mainly methane with lower concentrations of ethane to isopentane and CO 2, C 1 /C 2 ratios were mainly >1000 although deeper samples were <1000. Carbon isotopic compositions range from −65.2 to −80.7‰ for methane, −53.1 to −55.2‰ for ethane is consistent with mainly microbial gas sources, although one value recorded of −35.4‰ for propane suggests a thermogenic source. Gas hydrate accumulations in the Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi Basins are the result of a microbially sourced gas hydrate system. The system is enhanced by the migration of microbial gas from surrounding areas through pathways including high-porosity delta sands, shale diapirism, faulting and folding of sediment due to the local processes associated with rapid sediment deposition, sediment overpressure, and the recycling of methane from a rapidly upward moving gas hydrate stability zone. The gas hydrate system in the Andaman Basin is less well constrained due to lack of exploration and occurs in a forearc basin. Each of these hydrate-bearing systems overlies and is likely supported by the presence and possible migration of gas from deeper gas-prone petroleum systems currently generating thermogenic hydrocarbons at much greater depths.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area (NHMA) engages in a variety of undertakings, both established and emergent, in order to provide high quality products that enable stakeholders to take action in advance of and in response to earthquakes. Examples include the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), development of tools for improved situational awareness such as earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), research about induced seismicity, and new efforts to advance comprehensive subduction zone science and monitoring. Geodetic observations provide unique and complementary information directly relevant to advancing many aspects of these efforts (fig. 1). EHP scientists have long leveraged geodetic data for a range of influential studies, and they continue to develop innovative observation and analysis methods that push the boundaries of the field of geodesy as applied to natural hazards research. Given the ongoing, rapid improvement in availability, variety, and precision of geodetic measurements, considering ways to fully utilize this observational resource for earthquake loss reduction is timely and essential. This report presents strategies, and the underlying scientific rationale, by which the EHP could achieve the following outcomes: The EHP is an authoritative source for the interpretation of geodetic data and its use for earthquake loss reduction throughout the United States and its territories. The USGS consistently provides timely, high quality geodetic data to stakeholders. Significant earthquakes are better characterized by incorporating geodetic data into USGS event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters. Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations. Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data. Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood. A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts: Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan. Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations. Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability. Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and analysis systems. Collaborate on research, development, and operation of affordable, high-precision seafloor geodetic methods that improve earthquake forecasting and event response. Advance computational techniques and instrumentation to enable use of strategies like repeat-pass imagery and low-cost geodetic sensors for earthquake response, monitoring, and research. Engage stakeholders and collaborate with partner institutions to foster operational and research objectives and to safeguard the continued health of geodetic infrastructure upon which we mutually depend. Maintaining a vibrant internal research program provides the foundation by which the EHP can remain an effective and trusted source for earthquake science. Exploiting abundant new data sources, evaluating and assimilating the latest science, and pursuing novel avenues of investigation are means to fulfilling the EHP’s core responsibilities and realizing the important scientific advances envisioned by its scientists. Central to the success of such a research program is engaging personnel with a breadth of competencies and a willingness and ability to adapt these to the program’s evolving priorities, enabling current staff to expand their skills and responsibilities, and planning holistically to meet shared workforce needs. In parallel, collaboration with external partners to support scientific investigations that complement ongoing internal research enables the EHP to strengthen earthquake information products by incorporating alternative perspectives and approaches and to study topics and geographic regions that cannot be adequately covered internally. With commensurate support from technical staff who possess diverse skills, including engineering, information technology, and proficiency in quantitative analysis combined with basic geophysical knowledge, the EHP can achieve the geodetic outcomes identified in this document.

Open-File Report↗

Premonitory slip and tidal triggering of earthquakes

We have conducted a series of laboratory simulations of earthquakes using granite cylinders containing precut bare fault surfaces at 50 MPa confining pressure. Axial shortening rates between 10 −4 and 10 −6 mm/s were imposed to simulate tectonic loading. Average loading rate was then modulated by the addition of a small-amplitude sine wave to simulate periodic loading due to Earth tides or other sources. The period of the modulating signal ranged from 10 to 10,000 s. For each combination of amplitude and period of the modulating signal, multiple stick-slip events were recorded to determine the degree of correlation between the timing of simulated earthquakes and the imposed periodic loading function. Over the range of parameters studied, the degree of correlation of earthquakes was most sensitive to the amplitude of the periodic loading, with weaker dependence on the period of oscillations and the average loading rate. Accelerating premonitory slip was observed in these experiments and is a controlling factor in determining the conditions under which correlated events occur. In fact, some form of delayed failure is necessary to produce the observed correlations between simulated earthquake timing and characteristics of the periodic loading function. The transition from strongly correlated to weakly correlated model earthquake populations occurred when the amplitude of the periodic loading was approximately 0.05 to 0.1 MPa shear stress (0.03 to 0.06 MPa Coulomb failure function). Lower-amplitude oscillations produced progressively lower correlation levels. Correlations between static stress increases and earthquake aftershocks are found to degrade at similar stress levels. Typical stress variations due to Earth tides are only 0.001 to 0.004 MPa, so that the lack of correlation between Earth tides and earthquakes is also consistent with our findings. A simple extrapolation of our results suggests that approximately 1% of midcrustal earthquakes should be correlated with Earth tides. Triggered seismicity has been reported resulting from the passage of surface waves excited by the Landers earthquake. These transient waves had measured amplitudes in excess of 0.1 MPa at frequencies of 0.05 to 0.2 Hz in regions of notable seismicity increase. Similar stress oscillations in our laboratory experiments produced strongly correlated stick-slip events. We suggest that seemingly inconsistent natural observations of triggered seismicity and absence of tidal triggering indicate that failure is amplitude and frequency dependent. This is the expected result if, as in our laboratory experiments, the rheology of the Earth's crust permits delayed failure.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Significance of rotating ground motions on nonlinear behavior of symmetric and asymmetric buildings in near fault sites

Building codes in the U.S. require at least two horizontal ground motion components for three-dimensional (3D) response history analysis (RHA) of structures. For sites within 5 km of an active fault, these records should be rotated to fault-normal/fault-parallel (FN/FP) directions, and two RHA analyses should be performed separately (when FN and then FP are aligned with transverse direction of the structural axes). It is assumed that this approach will lead to two sets of responses that envelope the range of possible responses over all non-redundant rotation angles. This assumption is examined here using 3D computer models of a single-story structure having symmetric (that is, torsionally-stiff) and asymmetric (that is, torsionally flexible) layouts subjected to an ensemble of bi-directional near-fault strong ground motions with and without apparent velocity pulses. In this parametric study, the elastic vibration period of the structures is varied from 0.2 to 5 seconds, and yield strength reduction factors R is varied from a value that leads to linear-elastic design to 3 and 5. The influence that the rotation angle of the ground motion has on several engineering demand parameters (EDPs) is examined in linear-elastic and nonlinear-inelastic domains to form a benchmark for evaluating the use of the FN/FP directions as well as the maximum-direction (MD) ground motion, a new definition of horizontal ground motions for use in the seismic design of structures according to the 2009 NEHRP Provisions and Commentary.

Book↗

Seismicity map of the state of Arizona

This map is one of a series of seismicity maps produced by the U. S. Geological Survey that show earthquake data of individual states or groups of states at the scale of 1:1,000,000. This map shows only those earthquakes with epicenters located within the boundaries of Arizona, even though earthquakes in nearby states or countries may have been felt or may have caused damage in Arizona. The data in table 1 were used to compile the seismicity map; these data are a corrected, expanded, and updated (through 1982) version of the data used by Algermissen (1969) for a study of seismic risk in the United States. The locations and intensities of some earthquakes were revised and intensities were assigned where none had been before. Many earthquakes were added to the original list from new data sources as well as from some old data sources that had not been previously used. The data in table 1 represent best estimates of the location of the epicenter, magnitude, and intensity of each earthquake on the basis of historical and current information. Some of the aftershocks from large earthquakes are listed, but not all, especially for earthquakes that occurred before seismic instruments were universally used. Table 1 includes earthquakes reported felt in Yuma, Arizona that had no corroborating reports from other areas. These events are listed with coordinates (32.7°N., 114.6° W.) near Yuma even though it is suspected that they may have actually occurred in the Imperial Valley, California or Baja California, Mexico. Very few earthquakes have been instrumentally located near Yuma and it is believed that most historical felt reports correspond to earthquakes that occurred in the seismic zone extending from the Gulf of California northward into California. It is known that some earthquakes located graphically from phase data prior to epicenter determinations by electronic computer were erroneously located in southern Arizona and actually had locations in the Gulf of California or northern Mexico. For detailed descriptions of the effects of earthquakes in Arizona see Bulletin 193, Arizona earthquakes, 1776-1980 (reference 343) which lists the localities where the earthquakes were felt and the effects at each place. This publication also includes isoseismal maps for 41 events. The latitude and longitude coordinates of each epicenter were rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree and sorted so that all identical locations were grouped and counted. These locations are represented on the map by a triangle. The number of earthquakes at each location is shown on the map by the arabic number to the right of the triangle. The Roman numeral to the left of the triangle is the maximum Modified Mercalli intensity (Wood and Neumann, 1931) of al 1 earthquakes with epicenters at that geographic location. The absence of an intensity value indicates that no intensities have been assigned to earthquakes at that location. The year shown below each triangle is the latest year for which the maximum intensity was recorded.

Arizona↗

Seismic stratigraphic characteristics of upper Louisiana continental slope: an area east of Green Canyon

A high-resolution seismic reflection survey was conducted in a small area of the upper Louisiana Continental Slope known as Green Canyon Area. This area includes tracts 427, 428, 471, 472, 515, and 516, that will be offered for sale in March 1982 as part of Lease Sale 67. The sea floor of this region is, slightly hummocky and is underlain by salt diapirs that are mantled by early Tertiary shale. Most of the shale is overlain by younger Tertiary and Quaternary deposits, although locally some of the shale protrudes the sea floor. Because of proximity to older Mississippi River sources, the sediments are thick. The sediment cover shows an abundance of geologic phenomena such as horsts, grabens, growth faults, normal faults, and consolidation faults, zones with distinct and indistinct parallel reflections, semi-transparent zones, distorted zones, and angular unconformities. The major feature of this region is a N-S linear zone of uplifted and intruded sedimentary deposits formed due to diapiric intrusion. Small scale graben development over the crest of the structure can be attributed to extension and collapse. Large scale undulations of reflections well off the flanks of the uplifted structure suggest sediment creep and slumping. Dipping of parallel reflections show block faulting and tilting. Air gun (5 and 40 cubic inch) records reveal at least five major sequences that show masked onlap and slumping in their lower parts grading into more distinct parallel reflections in their upper parts. Such sequences can be related to local uplift and sea level changes. Minisparker records of this area show similar sequences but on a smaller scale. The distinct parallel reflections often onlap the diapir flanks. The highly reflective parts of these sequences may represent turbidite-type deposition, possibly at times of lower sea level. The acoustically more transparent parts of each sequence may represent deposits containing primarily hemipelagic and pelagic sediment. A complex ridge system is present along the west side of the area and distinct parallel reflections onlap onto this structure primarily from the east. Much of this deposition may be ascribed to sedimentation within a submarine canyon whose position is controlled by this ridge.

Louisiana Continental Slope↗