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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Tetrabromobisphenol S (TBBPS) causes non-negligible and multigenerational reproductive toxicity in zebrafish

Tetrabromobisphenol S (TBBPS) is one of the most extensively used brominated flame retardants detected in the environment. Despite its widespread presence, the effects of persistent environmental exposure to TBBPS on the reproductive system remain unclear, raising significant health concerns. Here, using the zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) model, we identified significant intergenerational endocrine disruption and reproductive toxicity induced by TBBPS after a life-cycle (150 days) of parental exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of TBBPS (0.01, 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 μg/L). TBBPS interfered with hormone levels and the expression of genes within the hypothalamic–pituitary–gonadal (HPG) axis in both F0 males and females, leading to reduced embryo quality. The parental transmission of TBBPS also impacted the endocrine and reproductive systems of the F1 fish, including the increase of gonadotropin-releasing hormone 3 neuron numbers, changes in hormone levels, and a decrease in embryo numbers. F2 fish also displayed endocrine disruption, even in the absence of detectable TBBPS residues, evidenced by altered fertilization rates and vitellogenin levels. Together, our findings show that exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of TBBPS can induce reproductive toxicity that persists across generations, weakening the endocrine system and early growth in offspring by disrupting the HPG axis. These data provide critical insight into the persistent health risks posed by TBBPS.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2025

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO2 fertilization effect in Earth System Models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

PNAS↗
USGS2025

Late Quaternary pollen record from southwest Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, and the vegetation history of central Beringia

Pollen analysis of samples from a coastal exposure near Teller, southwestern Seward Peninsula, Alaska, provides a record of vegetation and climate spanning the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) through the Holocene. The site is near the center of the former Bering Land Bridge (BLB). The oldest pollen-bearing sediment unit is a loess deposit of LGM age, with pollen assemblages that closely resemble LGM assemblages from other key sites in central Beringia spanning 16° of latitude. These fossil assemblages represent vegetation composed primarily of grasses, sedges, Artemisia , willows, and forbs and are interpreted to represent steppe–tundra, associated with dry climates and summer temperatures cooler than at present. LGM mosses did not accumulate insulating layers of peat; the summer active soil layer was deeper than at present. Permafrost with ice wedges and loess deposition were widespread. A regional transition from steppe–tundra vegetation to a dwarf shrub–sedge–moss mesic-to-wetland vegetation began in central Beringia with the onset of Bølling–Allerød (B-A) warming at 14,700 cal yr BP. Warming events of the B-A and early Holocene resulted in widespread development of thermokarst terrain on the BLB and on ice-rich terrain in Western Alaska. Mesic climates and vegetation developed on the BLB during the marine transgression and because of B-A and early Holocene warming. Early Holocene warming allowed some boreal forest species such as alders to begin colonizing Western Alaska from the interior.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Predictors of mercury and pesticide fluxes by emerging adult aquatic insects from prairie pothole wetlands

Aquatic and terrestrial food webs are linked by movements of aquatic insects during their development from larvae to adults. Contaminants can affect these linkages by reducing insect survival and increasing tissue contaminant concentrations through adult metamorphosis, thus changing contaminant flux from water to land. Most anthropogenically influenced freshwater ecosystems are exposed to multiple contaminants. To better understand the combined effects of contaminants on aquatic–terrestrial linkages, we investigated how adult aquatic insect emergence and tissue contaminant concentrations affect insect-mediated contaminant flux of mercury and pesticides from wetlands. In a field survey of 15 wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region, an important agricultural region of North America, we found that insect-mediated mercury flux was 3.5 times more strongly predicted by emergence biomass than tissue mercury concentration. Thus, factors that were previously found to influence aquatic insect emergence biomass in this system—including insecticide tissue concentrations in adult insects, open water surface area, and agricultural land use—were the most likely to drive insect-mediated mercury flux. Pesticide flux, however, was 3.3 times more strongly predicted by the tissue pesticide concentration than by emergence. Thus, factors that influence pesticide exposure and, to a smaller extent, emergence biomass were the most likely to drive pesticide flux. Our results show how factors driving contaminant fluxes by adult aquatic insects differ by contaminant class, and they suggest one mechanism by which toxic effects of one contaminant (pesticides) could influence the flux of another (mercury). Predicting contaminant fluxes in areas where different mixtures of contaminants are present can aid in identifying risk to insectivores.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2025

Diversity of polyomaviruses and papillomaviruses in penguins from eastern and western Antarctica

Polyomaviruses and papillomaviruses are icosahedral viruses with small circular dsDNA genomes. Limited information on their diversity and evolution in avian hosts is available, with even less known regarding Antarctic penguins. Prior to this study, only one polyomavirus and two papillomaviruses had been identified in Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ). To expand our knowledge of these viruses in Antarctic penguins, we collected faecal and cloacal swab samples from 246 Adélie penguins over 3 breeding seasons (2021–2024) and 10 emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) during the 2023–2024 season on Ross Island (Ross Sea). Additionally, we sampled 66 Adélie, 40 chinstrap ( Pygoscelis antarcticus ) and 71 gentoo ( Pygoscelis papua ) penguins during the 2022–2023 season across various sites on the Antarctic Peninsula. All samples were screened for papillomaviruses and polyomaviruses. We identified 31 polyomaviruses in Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap penguins and 4 papillomaviruses in Adélie penguins sampled in both eastern and western Antarctica. The 31 penguin polyomaviruses belong to a single species but form four distinct variants that are host species specific with strong geographic clustering. The four papillomaviruses represent three different types, of which two are new types from Adélie penguins sampled on Yalour Island in the West Antarctic Peninsula. Co-occurrence of two polyomavirus variants was identified in two individual gentoo penguins. Both of these variants appear to be circulating in gentoo penguins at Cierva Cove, Hope Bay in Trinity Peninsula along the Antarctic Peninsula, and at Hannah Point on Livingstone Island and Stranger Point on King George Island in the South Shetland Islands. Here, we expand the known diversity, host and geographical ranges of penguin polyomaviruses and, together with a previously identified polyomavirus on Ross Island from 2012 to 2013, show that they form five distinct lineages. The four papillomaviruses identified in this study, together with two previously identified from Ross Island in 2012 and 2013 breeding seasons, show substantial diversity reflecting four papillomavirus types across three viral species and two distinct genera. Continued surveillance and viral genomic analysis across a larger geographical framework will help understand the evolution, transmission and incidence rates of these viruses.

Microbial Genomics↗
USGS2025

How high? Identifying elevation thresholds to guide coastal marsh restoration

Introduction Coastal marshes are highly valuable ecosystems facing threats from rising sea levels and intensifying storm events. To elevate marsh surfaces and prevent loss of ecosystem services, the beneficial use of dredged material (BUDM) is increasingly being implemented across the United States. Objectives The objective of this study was to aid decision-makers and restoration practitioners by identifying elevation thresholds that control the optimal function of Spartina patens -dominated marshes along the Texas Coast. Methods This study was conducted in the coastal marshes of the J.D. Murphree Wildlife Management Area (Texas). We collected elevation and vegetation cover data along ecological transition zones in marshes nourished with BUDM to identify elevation thresholds that define zones of optimal plant survivorship and growth. Results We identified lower (−0.05 m mean high water, MHW) and upper (0.26 m MHW) elevation thresholds that defined transitions to open water and unvegetated bare ground, respectively. Elevation targets ( T ) and elevation target zones, which defined areas with the greatest vegetation cover, were determined for S. patens ( T : 0.11 m, target zone: −0.06 to 0.26 m MHW), S. alterniflora ( T : 0.00 m, target zone: −0.12 to 0.10 m MHW), and Distichlis spicata ( T : 0.17 m, target zone: 0.07–0.25 m MHW). Conclusions Our analyses provide species-specific elevation targets for coastal marsh restoration through BUDM, which can improve restoration outcomes for coastal wetlands.

Texas↗
USGS2025

Estimating flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, 2023

This report provides estimates of flood discharge at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont with drainage areas between 0.47 and 851 square miles. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 156 streamgages. Flood-frequency analyses were completed using data through the 2023 water year. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations are drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction used to estimate flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 37.1, 38.2, 41.6, 43.8, 46.0, 49.1, and 53.2 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed using the Expected Moments Algorithm. Techniques used to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations and to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment are both described. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is an internet-based application that provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Vermont↗
USGS2025

When do single-species occupancy models outperform multispecies models?

Occupancy models have become increasingly popular for species monitoring and assessment, in part, because detection/non-detection data are readily obtained using a variety of methods. Multispecies occupancy models (MSOMs) can yield more accurate parameter estimates than single-species models (SSOMs) with less data through their hierarchical structure, making MSOMs an attractive option when species are hard to detect or when data collection is constrained, leading to sparse datasets. Such constraints may arise from limited sampling resources, but also occur in rare species monitoring or where preliminary results are desired to inform adaptive management. Further, experimental habitat treatments often impose spatial constraints on sampling based on the scale of their implementation. Whether a MSOM outperforms SSOMs depends on the volume of data, characteristics of the ecological community, research goals of a study and how these factors align with modeling assumptions. We performed a simulation study of hypothetical pollinator communities under varying sampling intensities for scenarios in which experimental habitat treatments produced different community-level effects. We fit occupancy models to simulated datasets and assessed model performance. At lower sampling intensities (< 20 spatial replicates and < 4 temporal replicates), MSOM community-level treatment effect estimates were biased. Even at twice this sampling intensity, SSOMs yielded more accurate species-specific effect estimates in treatment effect scenarios with high variance. In some cases, MSOMs can pull species in the tails of distributions too far toward the community mean effect, which risks incorrect conclusions concerning whether treatments help or harm individual species. When quantifying species-specific effects is the main objective, particularly for rarely observed species, SSOMs are more robust to outliers across a range of community response scenarios. Researchers can use this information to inform study design, guide simulation studies and decide whether the higher precision of MSOMs outweighs risks of improperly estimated effects for some species.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Topographic, climatic, and age controls on the reworking of volcanic debris avalanche deposits

Volcanic debris avalanches have deposited as much as 1000 km 3 of largely unconsolidated material on landscapes and remodeled existing drainage networks. The landscape disturbances created by these events pose severe, cascading downstream sedimentation hazards that can require long-term societal management, as demonstrated by decades of observations and ongoing interventions after the deposition of the 1980 debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens (United States). There, post-emplacement sediment yields caused by deposit erosion remain several times above estimated background yield and lakes impounded by the deposit still pose threats of downstream flooding. Despite the length and quality of measurements of the geomorphic evolution and consequent sediment release at Mount St. Helens, the long-term trajectory of drainage network evolution across, and the associated sediment release from, large volcanic debris avalanches remains uncertain. Observations and modeling at Mount St. Helens, however, indicate channel instability can persist many decades and may persist for centuries to millennia. We examined potential influences on the erosion and preservation of volcanic debris avalanche deposits (VDADs) by mapping valley networks developed on 89 VDADs selected from volcanic arcs across the world and spanning a variety of topographic settings and climate regimes. Using the best available topographic data (1 m lidar to 30 m radar-derived data depending on location) and aerial imagery, we estimated the areas of deposits that have been reworked relative to initial deposit footprints as a proxy for post-emplacement erosion. We found that a primary influence on reworking is the topographic confinement of the VDAD: confined, valley-filling deposits are systematically more reworked than unconfined deposits. There is no apparent relationship between deposit age and reworking for valley-filling deposits, indicating that drainage networks on deposits in confined topographic settings like at Mount St. Helens reform rapidly after emplacement. In contrast, our data indicate that the reworking of unconfined deposits has a monotonic positive relationship with age. This observation agrees with a conceptual model of channel formation at Mount Taranaki (New Zealand), which posits that an unconfined VDAD created a topographic high that initially (e.g., 2–8 ky for the Pungarehu formation at Taranaki) diverted erosion to the deposit margins. We found only a weak to moderate relationship between reworking and modern precipitation regimes, which may reflect differences between modern and paleo-precipitation conditions at many of our study sites. We also found no correlation between the size (surface area or volume) of deposits and the degree of reworking. The work presented here implies that downstream cascading sediment hazards from landscape-resetting processes like VDADs (such as thick, extensive pyroclastic flow deposits) depend on the relief and organization of the surrounding landscape.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Groundwater structures fish growth and production across a riverscape

Landscapes are composed of habitat patches and conditions that vary across space and time. While habitat variability and complexity can support important ecological processes and ecosystem services, the dynamic nature of habitats can also constrain organismal growth and production as optimal conditions are fleeting. In riverine ecosystems, groundwater discharge to streams stabilises water temperature and flow regimes, thus mediating how habitat complexity is expressed. Yet, how stable habitats structure growth and production within the broader landscape matrix is not well understood. In this study, we explored the effects of groundwater on spatiotemporal variation in growth and production for juvenile Yellowstone cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus virginalis bouvieri ) across the upper Snake River catchment, Wyoming, USA. We combined machine learning techniques and remotely sensed landscape data to estimate groundwater availability across the river network, which we linked to stream temperature regimes and conspecific density. We then used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of temperature, density and groundwater on spatiotemporal variation in fish growth and production in 52 focal reaches. Finally, we predicted body size trajectories and trends in total production continuously over both space and time to understand the effect of groundwater at the riverscape scale. Groundwater discharged to streams where topography changes abruptly in valley-bottom areas underlain by coarse glacial deposits. Groundwater stabilised temperature regimes and was associated with high trout densities. Temperature and density, in turn, interacted to influence growth rates: growth increased strongly with temperature, but this effect was reduced when density was high. Accordingly, variation in groundwater availability among stream reaches diversified growth and production regimes. In reaches with low groundwater availability, growth and production declined over time from summer maxima. In contrast, in reaches with high groundwater availability, temporal trends in growth and production were hump-shaped—peaking in autumn—and mean production was greater. At the riverscape scale, temporal asynchrony in growth rates generated convergent spatial variation in growth capacity, but—when combined with density—led to the formation of distinct hotspots of production. Our results demonstrate how groundwater, an important driver of aquatic ecosystem heterogeneity, structures trout growth and production across space and time. Importantly, rare, but stable habitats may disproportionately affect ecological processes and serve as key sources of population diversity at larger spatial scales.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Twenty years (2000-2020) of butterfly monitoring data across the contiguous United States

We present the most comprehensive, integrated, butterfly monitoring dataset ever assembled for the United States. It contains over 1.2 million count records, from 65,000 surveys, representing over 12.6 million individual butterflies. To compile this dataset, we integrated data and harmonized taxonomy across 19 butterfly monitoring programs in the United States – one national, 13 statewide, and 5 local (e.g. individual county or National Park) in scale. In addition to the data, we also provide the taxonomic dictionary used to crosswalk butterfly taxonomy across programs, and the code used to assemble the integrated dataset. The publication of this dataset will inspire new analyses of butterfly population trends and drivers that help to identify solutions to the biodiversity crisis.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2025

Success of restoration strategies in preventing extirpation of 2 critically endangered coral species

An unprecedented marine heatwave in 2023 caused widespread coral bleaching and mortality throughout the Caribbean. In the Florida Keys (USA), 2 foundation species, elkhorn coral ( Acropora palmata ) and staghorn coral ( Acropora cervicornis ), were severely affected. These species have been the primary focus of reef restoration in Florida for decades. Substantial losses of these species occurred in outplanted populations, in ocean-based nurseries, and among remnant wild colonies, leading to uncertainty over their future in the Florida Keys, given recent observed trends in climate conditions. However, the past 2 decades of restoration activity created a community of experts, a network of ocean-based and land-based coral-rearing infrastructure, and 2 independent land-based coral gene banks that prevented regional extirpation and preserved much of the genetic richness of these critically endangered coral species. Without the past decades of effort and the emergency response associated with the 2023 bleaching event, Florida acroporids would largely have been lost. This outcome afforded by the restoration network in Florida demonstrates the value of proactively establishing resources prior to major disturbances. We identified several critical strategies that, in the context of existing climate change, are preventing the extirpation of coral species in Florida, including extending collaborative restoration efforts to solidify a network of trained experts; establishing trust-focused relationships among management agencies and restoration groups; testing direct interventions to reduce light and temperature stress early during thermal anomalies; developing redundant ocean-based and land-based nurseries; and establishing living coral gene banks prior to major threats to prevent the extirpation of coral species.

Florida↗
USGS2025

The rise of U.S. photovoltaics: An exploration of land use density trends in large-scale solar facility attributes, 2012-2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Assessing fish growth changes under an ecosystem regime shift: The approach of linear mixed-effects modeling with application to Lake Huron lake trout

Linear mixed-effects modeling has been used to characterize fish growth changes over time, but early studies did not fully consider the implicit relationship among the three major factors of fish age, year-class, and sampling year in model development. Our objective is to resolve this issue and develop a linear mixed-effects model to clearly assess how lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) growth has responded to the ecosystem regime shift in Lake Huron. We found that, from the late 1970s through the early 2000s, lake trout weight-at-age in northern Lake Huron had large variation with no apparent temporal trend, whereas the weight-at-age in southern Lake Huron steadily declined but remained larger than that in northern Lake Huron. The difference between northern and southern Lake Huron almost disappeared prior to the 2003 collapse of alewives, which accelerated the weight-at-age declines during the 2000s in both regions. By 2010, lake trout growth had a modest recovery and then stabilized. Our model fitted and explained variation in lake trout weight-at-age between years, regions, and recruitment origins, with the fixed age effect representing the general growth trajectory, the fixed year effect as the year-specific growth index, and the random year-class effect as the cohort-specific growth index.

Lake Huron↗
USGS2025

Water residence time and water depth influence on nutrient conditions, eutrophication endpoints and habitat quality in backwater lakes of a large floodplain river

Many eutrophication studies focus on the external supply of critical nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus, but hydrology and geomorphology can enhance or dampen the effects of excessive nutrient supply. We studied six backwater lakes in the Upper Mississippi River that varied in water residence time and water depth. Eutrophication in these systems is responsible for negative impacts such as cyanobacterial blooms and toxicity, and floating plant and algal mats that disrupt recreational water uses. Increasing backwater residence time was associated with more nitrate removal and a greater likelihood of nitrogen limitation, as well as greater accumulations of duckweed. Backwaters with greater depth and lower nitrogen concentration had less likelihood of filamentous algal accumulations. The median water residence time of backwaters with low duckweed (11.7 days) and no filamentous algae (16.9 days) approached the 12-day target to maintain overwintering conditions in backwaters for fisheries survival, supporting that water residence times in this range would likely improve both winter and summer water quality. Mean depth in backwaters with low duckweed and no filamentous algae was ~1.3 m, while shallower backwaters were more likely to produce duckweed and filamentous algae mats. This indicates that deeper backwaters might reduce the likelihood of eutrophication impacts. Natural resource management at the local level may not always be able to answer global and regional threats, but habitat restoration of hydrology and geomorphology can possibly alleviate or reduce large-scale threats at the local level.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Divergent responses of seed banks and aboveground vegetation to drought and deluge in grasslands across an elevational gradient

Increased variability in precipitation associated with climate change creates extreme conditions of drought and deluge that can have profound effects on the abundance and composition of plant communities. Responses to these extremes likely vary across climatic gradients and depend on local plant community composition, which includes the emergent, aboveground vegetation as well as belowground seed banks. Because seed banks can both buffer the effects of environmental change and influence the future trajectories of communities, it is critical to understand seed bank responses to precipitation extremes in relation to the aboveground vegetation and how patterns vary across environmental gradients. Here we quantified the responses of aboveground and seed bank communities at five perennial grass-dominated sites across an elevational gradient to 6 years of extreme drought and deluge, by implementing experimental water exclusion and water addition treatments. Responses were stronger for drought than for deluge. Drought decreased abundance aboveground, while seed bank abundances were generally unaffected. Similarly, drought decreased richness and diversity of aboveground vegetation at intermediate elevations, without concurrent changes in seed banks. Surprisingly, the lowest and middle elevation sites showed stronger shifts in functional composition and dissimilarity in response to treatments, despite the expectation of greater buffering in seed banks in more arid environments. The relatively attenuated responses of seed bank communities to drought and deluge suggest potential for resistance and recovery, though species and functional composition may show greater responses to change particularly in more arid, lower elevation sites.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Land cover, elevation, and precipitation predict distribution and hotspots of three bird species of concern in boreal Alaska

The boreal forest biome is an important breeding area for migratory birds and is undergoing rapid changes, including drying of wetlands, changes to vegetation composition, and human development. Many boreal bird populations are declining, but information is often lacking on how these species associate with habitat characteristics and thus how they may respond to changing conditions. We used a large point-count dataset to describe habitat associations and hotspots for three boreal species of concern in Alaska, USA: Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs), Contopus cooperi (Olive-sided Flycatcher), and Euphagus carolinus (Rusty Blackbird). We used an N-mixture model to evaluate covariates of abundance and two components of detection (availability and perceptibility). We then used the estimated relationships with covariates to predict density of each species across the Northwestern Interior Forest (Bird Conservation Region 4) in Alaska, including identifying hotspots where density was predicted to be in the top 10% of all locations. T. flavipes and E. carolinus were associated with wetlands and mean values of June precipitation; T. flavipes were also associated with low elevation and recent fire; and C. cooperi was associated with needleleaf forest and moderate elevation. Hotspots for T. flavipes and E. carolinus usually overlapped, while hotspots for C. cooperi almost never overlapped with those of the other two species. Following ground-truthing, these predicted distributions could be used to indicate areas of high importance for species of conservation concern and thus inform management decisions and mitigation measures. Our results could also help identify areas that are likely to be important for these species in the future, given the rapid changes now occurring across the boreal biome in response to climate warming and drying.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Long‐period ground motions from dynamic rupture simulations of large earthquakes on the creeping Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek fault system

he Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults in the San Francisco Bay region of California have a high probability of producing a large earthquake in the next decades. Although these faults creep, the creep is insufficient to keep up with their relatively rapid slip rates on their deepest sections, so they have been storing tectonic strain since their last large earthquakes, with the Hayward’s and Rodgers Creek’s more than 150 yr ago. We do not know what the next large Hayward–Calaveras–Rodgers Creek earthquakes will look like or how strongly they will shake the San Francisco Bay region. Harris et al. (2021) used the 3D dynamic (spontaneous) rupture method to simulate large earthquakes on these creeping faults. In this article, we examine the resulting simulated long‐period ( T > 1 s) ground shaking from 0 to 50 km distance, for earthquakes nucleating on the Hayward fault and earthquakes nucleating on the Rodgers Creek fault. We compare these simulated long‐period ground motions with the Boore et al. (2014) well‐established empirically based ground‐motion model suitable for the slowest material velocity in our 3D velocity structure. We find that the simulated long‐period ground motions from the creeping‐fault earthquake scenarios produce a reasonable agreement with the empirical expectations if frictional cohesion is included only where it is appropriate.

California↗