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Applications of knowledge and predictions of atmospheric rivers

This chapter reviews how AR research is being applied in real-world situations to address issues of flood planning and emergency intervention. It includes water supply management case studies. Examples comprise five distinct sections that show how AR research is being directly applied to the challenges that water managers, dam operators, crisis-management engineers such as USACE, National Weather Service (NWS) personnel, the media, and others face. These topics include how decision-makers on the ground must iteratively alternate between forecasts and their own field observations, especially in unfolding emergency-response conditions, and the trade-offs necessitated between acting on competing priorities such as flood-risk management and water supply management. Ultimately, almost all AR studies have the potential to directly benefit the public’s need for ongoing water supply as well as for accurate weather forecasts and deployable emergency protocols for natural hazards that necessitate municipal, state, and federal government personnel to collaborate.

Book chapter↗

Influence of water chemistry and travel distance on bacteriophage PRD-1 transport in a sandy aquifer

Experiments were conducted to evaluate the impact of groundwater chemistry and travel distance on the transport and fate behavior of PRD-1, a bacteriophage employed as a surrogate tracer for pathogenic enteric viruses. The experiments were conducted in the unconfined aquifer at the United States Geological Survey Cape Cod Toxic-Substances Hydrology Research Site in Falmouth, Massachusetts. The transport behavior of bromide (Br − ) and PRD-1 were evaluated in a sewage-effluent contaminated zone and a shallower uncontaminated zone at this site. Several multilevel sampling devices located along a 13-m transect were used to collect vertically discrete samples to examine longitudinal and vertical variability of PRD-1 retardation and attenuation. The concentration of viable bacteriophage in the aqueous phase decreased greatly during the first few meters of transport. This decrease is attributed to a combination of colloid filtration (attachment) and inactivation. The removal was greater (10 −12 relative recovery) and occurred within the first meter for the uncontaminated zone, whereas it was lesser (10 −9 relative recovery) and occurred over 4 m in the contaminated zone. The lesser removal observed for the contaminated zone is attributed to the influence of sorbed and dissolved organic matter, phosphate, and other anions, which are present in higher concentrations in the contaminated zone, on PRD-1 attachment. After the initial decrease, the aqueous PRD-1 concentrations remained essentially constant in both zones for the remainder of the tests (total travel distances of 13 m), irrespective of variations in geochemical properties within and between the two zones. The viable, mobile PRD-1 particles traveled at nearly the rate of bromide, which was used as a non-reactive tracer. The results of this study indicate that a small fraction of viable virus particles may persist in the aqueous phase and travel significant distances in the subsurface environment.

Water Research↗

The potential effects of sodium bicarbonate, a major constituent from coalbed natural gas production, on aquatic life

The production water from coalbed natural gas (CBNG) extraction contains many constituents. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established aquatic life criteria for some of these constituents, and it is therefore possible to evaluate their risk to aquatic life. However, of the major ions associated with produced waters, chloride is the only one with an established aquatic life criterion (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1988). The focus of this research was NaHCO 3 , a compound that is a major constituent of coalbed natural gas produced waters in the Tongue and Powder River Basins. This project included laboratory experiments, field in situ experiments, a field mixing zone study, and a fishery presence/absence assessment. Though this investigation focuses on the Tongue and Powder River Basins, the information is applicable to other watersheds where sodium bicarbonate is a principle component of product water either from CBNG or from traditional or unconventional oil and gas development. These data can also be used to separate effects of saline discharges from those potentially posed by other constituents. Finally, this research effort and the additional collaboration with USGS Water Resources and Mapping, Bureau of Land Management, US Environmental Protection Agency, State of Montana, State of Wyoming, Montana State University, University of Wyoming, and others as part of a Powder River Aquatic Task Group, can be used as a model for successful approaches to studying landscapes with energy development. The laboratory acute toxicity experiments were completed with a suite of organisms, including 7 species of fish, 5 species of invertebrates, and 1 amphibian species. Experiments performed on these multiple species resulted in LC50s that ranged from 1,120 to greater than (>) 8,000 milligrams sodium bicarbonate per liter (mg NaHCO 3 /L) (also defined as 769 to >8,000 milligrams bicarbonate per liter (mg HCO 3 -/L) or total alkalinity expressed as 608 to >4,181 milligrams calcium carbonate per liter (mg CaCO 3 /L)) that varied across species and lifestage within a species. The age at which fish were exposed to NaHCO 3 significantly affected the severity of toxic responses for some organisms. The chronic toxicity of NaHCO 3 was defined in experiments that lasted from 7—60 days post-hatch. For these experiments, sublethal effects such as growth and reproduction, in addition to significant reductions in survival were included in the final determination of effects. Chronic toxicity was observed at concentrations that ranged from 450 to 800mg NaHCO 3 /L (also defined as 430 to 657 mg HCO 3 -/L or total alkalinity expressed as 354 to 539 mg CaCO 3 /L) and the specific concentration depended on the sensitivity of the four species of invertebrates and fish exposed. Sublethal investigations during chronic studies revealed percent decrease in the activity of sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na/K ATPase, an enzyme involved in ionoregulation) and the age of the fish at the onset of the decrease may affect the ability of fathead minnow to survive exposures to NaHCO 3 . A database of toxicity evaluations of NaHCO 3 on aquatic life has been constructed. Using these data, sample acute and chronic criteria of 459 and 381 mg NaHCO 3 /L, respectively, can be calculated for the protection of aquatic life. The final derivation and implementation of such criteria is, of course, left to the discretion of the concerned management agencies. A combination of in situ experiments, static-renewal experiments performed simultaneously with in situ experiments, and static renewal experiments performed with site water in the laboratory, demonstrated that untreated coalbed natural gas (CBNG) product water from the Tongue and Powder River Basins reduces survival of fathead minnow and pallid sturgeon. More precisely, the survival of early-lifestage fathead minnow, especially those less than 6-days post hatch (dph), likely is reduced significantly in the field when concentrations of NaHCO 3 rise above 1,500 mg/L. However, age was not a factor for pallid sturgeon and they were sensitive to product water regardless of age. Treatment with the Higgins Loop™ technology and dilution of untreated water increased survival in the laboratory. Both of these situations reduced ammonia in addition to the concentrations of NaHCO 3 . These experiments addressed the acute toxicity of effluent waters being added to the main stem rivers, but did not address issues related to the volumes of water that may be added to the watershed. Mixing zones of the three outfalls studied ranged from approximately 800—1,200 m below the confluence and the areas within these mixing zones with acutely lethal concentrations of NaHCO 3 (as defined by the presence of concentrated dye) are limited. The areas with concentrations of NaHCO 3 more than the concentrations likely to cause significant mortality, and more than the calculated sample water-quality criteria in the Tongue and Powder River Basins appear to be limited to tributaries and parts of mixing zones with considerable additions of untreated effluent.

Montana;Wyoming↗

Design and testing of a mesocosm-scale habitat for culturing the endangered Devils Hole Pupfish

aptive propagation of desert spring fishes, whether for conservation or research, is often difficult, given the unique and often challenging environments these fish utilize in nature. High temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, minimal water flow, and highly variable lighting are some conditions a researcher might need to recreate to simulate their natural environments. Here we describe a mesocosm-scale habitat created to maintain hybrid Devils Hole × Ash Meadows Amargosa Pupfish ( Cyprinodon diabolis × C. nevadensis mionectes ) under conditions similar to those found in Devils Hole, Nevada. This 13,000-L system utilized flow control and natural processes to maintain these conditions rather than utilizing complex and expensive automation. We designed a rotating solar collector to control natural sunlight, a biological reactor to consume oxygen while buffering water quality, and a reverse-daylight photosynthesis sump system to stabilize nighttime pH and swings in dissolved oxygen levels. This system successfully controlled many desired parameters and helped inform development of a larger, more permanent desert fish conservation facility at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, Nevada. For others who need to raise fish from unique habitats, many components of the scalable and modular design of this system can be adapted at reasonable cost.

North American Journal of Aquaculture↗

Water resources during drought conditions and postfire water quality in the upper Rio Hondo Basin, Lincoln County, New Mexico, 2010-13

Stakeholders and water-resource managers in Lincoln County, New Mexico, have had long-standing concerns over the impact of population growth and groundwater withdrawals. These concerns have been exacerbated in recent years by extreme drought conditions and two major wildfires in the upper Rio Hondo Basin, located in south-central New Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Lincoln County, initiated a study in 2006 to assess and characterize water resources in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Data collected during water years 2010–13 are presented and interpreted in this report. All data presented in this report are described in water years unless stated otherwise. Annual mean streamflow at the Rio Ruidoso at Hollywood, N. Mex., streamflow-gaging station was less than 50 percent of the average streamflow during 2011–13 and was of similar magnitude to annual mean streamflow values measured during the drought of the 1950s. The first zero-streamflow values for the period of record (1954–2013) were recorded at the Rio Ruidoso at Hollywood, N. Mex., streamflow-gaging station on June 27–29, 2013. The lowest annual mean streamflow on record (1969–80; 1988–2013) occurred in 2011 at the Eagle Creek below South Fork near Alto, N. Mex., streamflow-gaging station, with the station recording zero streamflow for approximately 50 percent of the year. Discrete and continuous groundwater-level measurements indicated basinwide water-level declines during drought conditions in 2011–13. The average water-level change among 37 wells in which discrete groundwater-level measurements were collected was -7.6 ft from 2010 to 2013. The largest water-level declines were observed in the upper reaches of the Rio Bonito and Rio Ruidoso watersheds, and smaller declines were observed in the lower reaches of the watersheds. In general, water-level changes observed during 2010–13 were on the order of decadal-scale changes that previously have been observed in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Stable-isotope data indicate that high-elevation winter precipitation generally contributes more to groundwater recharge than summer rains, except when there are large summer recharge events. This implies that little recharge is occurring at the lower elevations in the upper Rio Hondo Basin because these areas receive a smaller amount of total precipitation, receive a smaller proportion of the annual total falling as winter precipitation, and have higher average temperatures that result in more evaporative losses. Groundwater in the upper Rio Hondo Basin is a mix of younger and older water, and recharge likely is occurring primarily at higher elevations but there may be some areas where localized recharge is occurring at lower elevations. Surface-water- and groundwater-quality results from samples collected in 2012–13 were examined to characterize overall chemistry and were compared to historical waterquality data from streams in the upper Rio Hondo Basin collected during 1926–57. In general, specific conductance showed an increasing trend moving eastward (downstream) through the upper Rio Hondo Basin in surface-water and groundwater samples. Surface-water and groundwater samples appear to have similar overall major-ion chemical characteristics when compared to historical water-quality data. Geology was found to influence the chemical characteristics of surface-water and groundwater samples, with relatively higher concentrations of sulfate occurring in samples collected at lower elevations in the Permian regional aquifer system. Surface-water sample results also were analyzed to determine differences in unfiltered and filtered water-quality samples of streams in burned and unburned watersheds after the occurrence of the Little Bear Fire in June 2012. Samples were collected after postfire monsoon rain events and during periods of stable hydrologic conditions. The first postfire monsoon rain event in July 2012 generally produced the highest measured concentrations of selected fire-related constituents in unfiltered samples collected in the burned watersheds relative to later samples collected in burned watersheds and all samples collected in the unburned watershed. Monsoon rain events have impacted water quality by delivering larger sediment loads and fire-related constituents into streams in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Changes in climate and increased groundwater and surface-water use are likely to affect the availability of water in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Increased drought probably will increase the potential for wildfires, which can affect downstream water quality and increase flood potential. Climate-research predicted decreases in winter precipitation may have an adverse effect on the amount of groundwater recharge that occurs in the upper Rio Hondo Basin, given the predominance of winter precipitation recharge as indicated by the stable isotope results. Decreases in surface-water supplies because of persistent drought conditions and reductions in the quality of water because of the effects of wildfire may lead to a larger reliance on groundwater reserves in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Decreasing water levels because of increasing groundwater withdrawal could reduce base flows in the Rio Bonito and Rio Ruidoso. Well organized and scientifically supported regional water-resources management will be necessary for dealing with the likely scenario of increases in demand coupled with decreases in supply in the upper Rio Hondo Basin.

New Mexico↗

Effects of focused recharge on the transport of agricultural chemicals at the Princeton, Minnesota Management Systems Evaluation Area, 1991-92

Rates of water movement through the unsaturated zone greatly affect the amount and concentrations of agricultural chemicals that may reach the water table. For example, recharge can flush chemicals to the water table which have accumulated in the unsaturated zone during dry periods. A better understanding of how topography influences recharge and the movement of agricultural chemicals is needed. In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with funding from the USGS Toxic Substances Hydrology Program, began studying the movement of water and agricultural chemicals to the water table at the Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) near Princeton, Minnesota. The primary objective of this four-year research study is to evaluate the effects of transient recharge, topography, and subsurface heterogeneities on the flux of water and agricultural chemicals to ground water. To achieve this objective the approach was to (1) install instruments to sample and measure the movement of water through the unsaturated zone beneath topographically high and low areas of a corn field; (2) conduct recharge and tracer tests in the field to evaluate the movement of water and agricultural chemicals at both topographic settings; and (3) simulate the field recharge and tracer tests in the laboratory. The primary research hypothesis was that the vertical flux of water and agricultural chemicals is greater in topographically low areas than in topographically high areas.

Minnesota↗

Transient changes in shallow groundwater chemistry during the MSU ZERT CO2 injection experiment

Food-grade CO 2 was injected into a shallow aquifer through a perforated pipe placed horizontally 1–2 m below the water table at the Montana State University Zero Emission Research and Technology (MSU-ZERT) field site at Bozeman, Montana. The possible impact of elevated CO 2 levels on groundwater quality was investigated by analyzing 80 water samples taken before, during, and following CO 2 injection. Field determinations and laboratory analyses showed rapid and systematic changes in pH, alkalinity, and conductance, as well as increases in the aqueous concentrations of trace element species. The geochemical data were first evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to identify correlations between aqueous species. The PCA findings were then used in formulating a geochemical model to simulate the processes likely to be responsible for the observed increases in the concentrations of dissolved constituents. Modeling was conducted taking into account aqueous and surface complexation, cation exchange, and mineral precipitation and dissolution. Reasonable matches between measured data and model results suggest that: (1) CO 2 dissolution in the groundwater causes calcite to dissolve. (2) Observed increases in the concentration of dissolved trace metals result likely from Ca +2 -driven ion exchange with clays (smectites) and sorption/desorption reactions likely involving Fe (hydr)oxides. (3) Bicarbonate from CO 2 dissolution appears to compete for sorption with anionic species such as HAsO 4 −2 , potentially increasing dissolved As levels in groundwater.

Conference Paper↗

Implications of model selection: A comparison of publicly available, conterminous US-extent hydrologic component estimates

Spatiotemporally continuous estimates of the hydrologic cycle are often generated through hydrologic modeling, reanalysis, or remote sensing (RS) methods and are commonly applied as a supplement to, or a substitute for, in situ measurements when observational data are sparse or unavailable. This study compares estimates of precipitation ( P ), actual evapotranspiration (ET), runoff ( R ), snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture (SM) from 87 unique data sets generated by 47 hydrologic models, reanalysis data sets, and remote sensing products across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Uncertainty between hydrologic component estimates was shown to be high in the western CONUS, with median uncertainty (measured as the coefficient of variation) ranging from 11 % to 21 % for P , 14 % to 26 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 76 % to 84 % for SWE, and 36 % to 96 % for SM. Uncertainty between estimates was lower in the eastern CONUS, with medians ranging from 5 % to 14 % for P, 13 % to 22 % for ET, 28 % to 82 % for R , 53 % to 63 % for SWE, and 42 % to 83 % for SM. Interannual trends in estimates from 1982 to 2010 show common disagreement in R, SWE, and SM. Correlating fluxes and stores against remote-sensing-derived products show poor overall correlation in the western CONUS for ET and SM estimates. Study results show that disagreement between estimates can be substantial, sometimes exceeding the magnitude of the measurements themselves. The authors conclude that multimodel ensembles are not only useful but are in fact a necessity for accurately representing uncertainty in research results. Spatial biases of model disagreement values in the western United States show that targeted research efforts in arid and semiarid water-limited regions are warranted, with the greatest emphasis on storage and runoff components, to better describe complexities of the terrestrial hydrologic system and reconcile model disagreement.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Changes in streamflow and the flux of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin, USA, 1980-2007

Nutrients and freshwater delivered by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers drive algal production in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which eventually results in the widespread occurrence of hypoxic bottom waters along the Louisiana and Texas coast. Researchers have demonstrated a relation between the extent of the hypoxic zone and the magnitude of streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and nutrient concentrations in the Mississippi River, with springtime streamflows and fluxes being the most predictive. In 1999 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the flux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica at selected sites in the Mississippi Basin and to the Gulf of Mexico for 1980-1996. These flux estimates provided the baseline information used by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force to develop an Action Plan for reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary goal of the Action Plan was to achieve a reduction in the size (areal extent) of the hypoxic zone from an average of approximately 14,000 square kilometers in 1996-2000 to a 5-year moving average of less than 5,000 square kilometers by 2015. Improved statistical models and adjusted maximum likelihood estimation using USGS Load Estimator (LOADEST) software were used to estimate annual and seasonal nutrient fluxes for 1980-2007 at selected sites on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. These data provide a means to evaluate the influence of natural and anthropogenic effects on delivery of water and nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico; to define subbasins that are the most important contributors of nutrients to the gulf; and to investigate the relations among streamflow, nutrient fluxes, and the size and duration of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. A comparative analysis between the baseline period of 1980-1996 and 5-year moving averages thereafter indicate that the average annual streamflow and fluxes of total nitrogen, nitrate, orthophosphate, and silica to the Gulf of Mexico have decreased. However, the flux of total phosphorus between the baseline period and subsequent 5-year periods has increased. The average spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and fluxes of silica, total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphate to the Gulf of Mexico also decreased, whereas the spring flux of total phosphorus has increased. Similar changes in streamflow and nutrient flux were observed at many sites Buxtonwithin the basin. The inputs of water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from the major subbasins of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin as a percentage of the to-the-gulf totals have increased from the Ohio River Basin, decreased from the Missouri River Basin, and remained relatively unchanged from the Upper Mississippi, Red, and Arkansas River Basins. Changes in streamflow and nutrient fluxes are related, but short-term variations in sources of streamflow and nutrients complicate the interpretation of factors that affect nutrient delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. Parametric time-series models are used to try and separate natural variability in nutrient flux from changes due to other causes. Results indicate that the decrease in annual nutrient fluxes that has occurred between the 1980-1996 baseline period and more recent years can be largely attributed to natural causes (climate and streamflow) and not management actions or other human controlled activities in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin. The downward trends in total nitrogen, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate that were detected at either the Mississippi River near St. Francisville, La., or the Atchafalaya River at Melville, La., occurred prior to 1995. In spite of the general decrease in nutrient flux, the average size of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone has increased between 1997 and 2007. The reasons for this are not clear but could be due to the type or nature of nutrient delivery. Whereas the annual flux of total nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased, the proporti

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Offshore marine observation of Willow Ptarmigan, including water landings, Kuskokwim Bay, Alaska

We report an observation of Willow Ptarmigan ( Lagopus lagopus ) encountered 8 to 17 km from the nearest shoreline on Kuskokwim Bay, Alaska, on 30 August 2003. The ptarmigan were observed flying, landing on our research vessel, and landing and taking off from the water surface. We also report on one other observation of ptarmigan sitting on the water surface and other marine observations of ptarmigan from the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. These observations provide evidence that Willow Ptarmigan are capable of dispersing across large bodies of water and landing and taking off from the water surface.

Alaska↗

Cumulative uncertainty in measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds

The scientific community has not established an adequate understanding of the uncertainty inherent in measured water quality data, which is introduced by four procedural categories: streamflow measurement, sample collection, sample preservation/storage, and laboratory analysis. Although previous research has produced valuable information on relative differences in procedures within these categories, little information is available that compares the procedural categories or presents the cumulative uncertainty in resulting water quality data. As a result, quality control emphasis is often misdirected, and data uncertainty is typically either ignored or accounted for with an arbitrary margin of safety. Faced with the need for scientifically defensible estimates of data uncertainty to support water resource management, the objectives of this research were to: (1) compile selected published information on uncertainty related to measured streamflow and water quality data for small watersheds, (2) use a root mean square error propagation method to compare the uncertainty introduced by each procedural category, and (3) use the error propagation method to determine the cumulative probable uncertainty in measured streamflow, sediment, and nutrient data. Best case, typical, and worst case data quality scenarios were examined. Averaged across all constituents, the calculated cumulative probable uncertainty (%) contributed under typical scenarios ranged from 6% to 19% for streamflow measurement, from 4% to 48% for sample collection, from 2% to 16% for sample preservation/storage, and from 5% to 21% for laboratory analysis. Under typical conditions, errors in storm loads ranged from 8% to 104% for dissolved nutrients, from 8% to 110% for total N and P, and from 7% to 53% for TSS. Results indicated that uncertainty can increase substantially under poor measurement conditions and limited quality control effort. This research provides introductory scientific estimates of uncertainty in measured water quality data. The results and procedures presented should also assist modelers in quantifying the quality of calibration and evaluation data sets, determining model accuracy goals, and evaluating model performance.

Transactions of the ASABE↗

A brief history of the U.S. Geological Survey

Established by an Act of Congress in 1879 and charged with responsibility for "classification of the public lands, and examination of the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the national domain," the U. S. Department of the Interior's Geological Survey has been the Nation's principal source of information about its physical resources the configuration and character of the land surface, the composition and structure of the underlying rocks, and the quality, extent, and distribution of water and mineral resources. Although primarily a research and fact-finding agency, it has responsibility also for the classification of Federal mineral lands and waterpower sites, and since 1926 it has been responsible for the supervision of oil and mining operations authorized under leases on Federal land. From the outset, the Survey has been concerned with critical land and resource problems. Often referred to as the Mother of Bureaus, many of its activities led to the formation of new organizations where a management or developmental function evolved. These included the Reclamation Service (1902), the Bureau of Mines (1910), the Federal Power Commission (1920), and the Grazing Service (1934, since combined with other functions as the Bureau of Land Management). Mrs. Rabbitt's summary of the Survey's history in the following pages brings out well the development of these diverse activities and the Survey's past contributions to national needs related to land and resources.

General Information Product↗

A review of the effects of climate change on visitor use in US public lands and waters

Climate change is affecting recreational visitor use in U.S. public lands and waters, causing changes to visitation levels, timing of trips, activity participation, and visitor safety. This report reviews the literature on how climate change is influencing visitor use in the United States and how visitor use may be affected in the future. Our goal is to provide the current state of the literature for managers of public lands and waters and provide foundational information for the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment methodology for visitor use within the National Park Service (that may be applicable to other federal lands and waters). Specifically, we investigate how seven different climate change factors may affect visitor use on public lands and waters. These factors consist of increasing temperatures; flooding, drought, and increased variability of precipitation; decreasing snowpack and earlier spring runoff; wildfires, smoke, and air quality; coastal hazards: hurricanes and sea level rise; harmful algal blooms (HABs); and zoonotic and vector-borne disease. The current research indicates that these factors are already affecting visitors to public lands and waters and continued effects in the future are likely as the climate warms. Additionally, we summarize existing research on how visitors to U.S. public lands and waters are adapting to climate change. Throughout the review, we note where there are substantial gaps in the literature and more research would help managers respond to the effects of climate change on visitor use.

Science Report↗

Introduction to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) of ground-water quality trends and comparison to other national programs

Assessment of temporal trends in national ground-water quality networks are rarely published in scientific journals. This is partly due to the fact that long-term data from these types of networks are uncommon and because many national monitoring networks are not driven by hypotheses that can be easily incorporated into scientific research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) since 1991 has to date (2006) concentrated on occurrence of contaminants because sufficient data for trend analysis is only just becoming available. This paper introduces the first set of trend assessments from NAWQA and provides an assessment of the success of the program. On a national scale, nitrate concentrations in ground water have generally increased from 1988 to 2004, but trends in pesticide concentrations are less apparent. Regionally, the studies showed high nitrate concentrations and frequent pesticide detections are linked to agricultural use of fertilizers and pesticides. Most of these areas showed increases in nitrate concentration within the last decade, and these increases are associated with oxic-geochemical conditions and well-drained soils. The current NAWQA plan for collecting data to define trends needs to be constantly reevaluated to determine if the approach fulfills the expected outcome. To assist this evaluation, a comparison of NAWQA to other national ground-water quality programs was undertaken. The design and spatial extent of each national program depend on many factors, including current and long-term budgets, purpose of the program, size of the country, and diversity of aquifer types. Comparison of NAWQA to nine other national programs shows a great diversity in program designs, but indicates that different approaches can achieve similar and equally important goals. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗

Biota connect aquatic habitats throughout freshwater ecosystem mosaics

Freshwater ecosystems are linked at various spatial and temporal scales by movements of biota adapted to life in water. We review the literature on movements of aquatic organisms that connect different types of freshwater habitats, focusing on linkages from streams and wetlands to downstream waters. Here, streams, wetlands, rivers, lakes, ponds, and other freshwater habitats are viewed as dynamic freshwater ecosystem mosaics (FEMs) that collectively provide the resources needed to sustain aquatic life. Based on existing evidence, it is clear that biotic linkages throughout FEMs have important consequences for biological integrity and biodiversity. All aquatic organisms move within and among FEM components, but differ in the mode, frequency, distance, and timing of their movements. These movements allow biota to recolonize habitats, avoid inbreeding, escape stressors, locate mates, and acquire resources. Cumulatively, these individual movements connect populations within and among FEMs and contribute to local and regional diversity, resilience to disturbance, and persistence of aquatic species in the face of environmental change. Thus, the biological connections established by movement of biota among streams, wetlands, and downstream waters are critical to the ecological integrity of these systems. Future research will help advance our understanding of the movements that link FEMs and their cumulative effects on downstream waters.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

Recent advances in environmental flows science and water management—Innovation in the Anthropocene

The implementation of environmental flow regimes offers a promising means to protect and restore riverine, wetland and estuarine ecosystems, their critical environmental services and cultural/societal values. This Special Issue expands the scope of environmental flows and water science in theory and practice, offering 20 papers from academics, agency researchers and non‐governmental organisations, each with fresh perspectives on the science and management of environmental water allocations. Contributions confront the grand challenge for environmental flows and water management in the Anthropocene—the urgent need for innovations that will help to sustain the innate resilience of social–ecological systems under dynamic and uncertain environmental and societal futures. Basin‐scale and regional assessments of flow requirements mark a necessary advance in environmental water science in the face of rapid changes in water‐resource management activities worldwide (e.g. increases in dams, diversions, retention and reuse). Techniques for regional‐scale hydrological and ecohydrological modelling support ecological risk assessment and identification of priority flow management and river restoration actions. Changing flood–drought cycles, long‐term climatic shifts and associated effects on hydrological, thermal and water quality regimes add enormous uncertainty to the prediction of future ecological outcomes, regardless of environmental water allocations. An improved capacity to predict the trajectories of ecological change in rivers degraded by legacies of past impact interacting with current conditions and future climate change is essential. Otherwise, we risk unrealistic expectations from restoration of river and estuarine flow regimes. A more robust, dynamic and predictive approach to environmental water science is emerging. It encourages the measurement of process rates (e.g. birth rate, colonisation rate) and species traits (e.g. physiological requirements, morphological adaptations) as well as ecosystem states (e.g. species richness, assemblage structure), as the variables representing ecological responses to flow variability and environmental water allocations. Another necessary development is the incorporation of other environmental variables such as water temperature and sedimentary processes in flow–ecological response models. Based on contributions to this Special Issue, several recent compilations and the wider literature, we identify six major scientific challenges for further exploration, and seven themes for advancing the management of environmental water. We see the emerging frontier of environmental flows and water science as urgent and challenging, with numerous opportunities for reinvigorated science and methodological innovation in the expanding enterprise of environmental water linked to ecological sustainability and social well‐being.

Freshwater Biology↗

Assessing risk for enhanced cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, and pathogens with changes in water level regime with potential application to Lake Powell and Lake Mead: A mixed methods literature review

Water levels in freshwater reservoirs worldwide are changing due to altered climate, management practices, and increasing human demand for water. In the desert southwestern USA, managers are considering significant changes to reservoir operation strategies and water management in response to consumptive use and ongoing drought. To inform reservoir management decision-making, we reviewed current peer-reviewed literature to identify the effects of decreasing or increasing water level on phytoplankton, cyanobacteria, Escherichia coli , and Naegleria spp. We identified 34 studies containing 42 individual waterbodies that investigated the effects of water level increases or decreases on phytoplankton or cyanobacteria. We found that water level decreases resulted in a higher likelihood of increased cyanobacteria, and that phytoplankton were more likely to decrease in response to water level increases. Most of the waterbodies included in the literature review were eutrophic or hypereutrophic, underscoring the need to explore the effects of water level fluctuations on oligotrophic systems. We only identified five studies on E. coli through our review, and no studies on Naegleria spp. We supplemented our review with regional white papers and case studies within the Colorado River Basin and the Rio Grande River Basin to highlight relevant research. Prior and ongoing research highlights the need to explore impacts of water level fluctuations on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to guide future management decision-making.

Arizona, Utah, Nevada↗