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USGS2023

Hydrogeology of sand and gravel aquifers in the Owasco Inlet watershed, Cayuga and Tompkins Counties, New York

This study is a continuation of a series of hydrogeologic appraisals that have been conducted since 1980, as part of a cooperative, long-term, detailed aquifer mapping program by the U.S. Geological Survey and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. These appraisals provide a foundation for wellhead protection programs, water-resource management and planning decisions, and groundwater remediation in upstate New York. The Owasco Inlet watershed drains north directly to Owasco Lake, one of New York’s Finger Lakes. The watershed is similar in form to other watersheds of the Finger Lakes region of New York State and is characterized by broad, smooth uplands punctuated by the 18-mile-long Owasco Inlet valley and the secondary valleys of Decker, Dresserville, and Hemlock Creeks. All these streams occupy “through valleys”—the valleys are continuous into adjacent watersheds such that watershed divides are high points within the valley bottoms, rather than in uplands. Most glacial deposits in the watershed were deposited during the Valley Heads Readvance and subsequent retreat (with at least one minor readvance). Estimates are that the Valley Heads Readvance likely peaked in the Cayuga basin about 17,000 (calendar) years ago based on dates from western New York and the Mohawk Valley in east-central New York. It was the last major ice advance of the Pleistocene Epoch in this region. This readvance covered the entire Owasco watershed. Valley Heads ice in the Owasco watershed was part of the Cayuga ice lobe, which flowed parallel to the Owasco Inlet valley as far south as Moravia, but which became progressively more eastward south of Locke, effectively raking across the valley from the west. The Owasco Inlet watershed drains north, like other Finger Lakes watersheds, and during deglaciation, northward meltwater drainage was largely blocked by the ice, which resulted in development of a series of regional proglacial lakes in which fine lacustrine sediments predominated. Lacustrine sediments constitute much of the Owasco Inlet valley fill, but it has been pointed out that there are no obvious outlet channels exiting the Owasco Inlet watershed, and it has been proposed that there was northward drainage of meltwater into the ice within the larger, neighboring Cayuga Trough. The lacustrine deposits in the Owasco Inlet valley are commonly underlain by thinner coarse-grained stratified deposits (subaqueous fans and eskers) of variable sorting and permeability. An exception occurs at Groton, N.Y., where retreating ice paused long enough for coarse-grained sediments to fill much of the valley. Smaller, higher elevation valleys have a wider variety of glacial valley-fill deposits, ranging from fine lacustrine sediments to sand and gravel to till. Groundwater is the sole source of water supply in the area; glacial sand and gravel aquifers are the primary water source in the Owasco Inlet and Decker Creek valleys, and fractured bedrock aquifers typically supply domestic wells in the remaining valleys and upland areas. Municipal supplies tap a variety of aquifer types in the Owasco Inlet valley and nearby uplands. The hamlet of Locke taps the extensive confined aquifer beneath fine-grained lacustrine deposits in the valley. The Village of Moravia taps a semiconfined aquifer that overlies proglacial lake deposits and is partly confined by overlying recent lake deposits and alluvium. Withdrawals from this aquifer may also induce water from the Owasco Inlet into the aquifer. The Village of Groton draws from two aquifers: (1) a thin upland unconfined sand and gravel aquifer tapped by an infiltration gallery and (2) the local unconfined or semiconfined aquifer in the Owasco Inlet valley. Another aquifer with potential for municipal supply is the unconfined aquifer in the Decker Creek valley near Wilson Corners. The confined aquifer in the lower Dresserville Creek valley may have some water-resource potential, but it is largely untested. Unconfined aquifers are the most susceptible to contamination from activities at land surface directly above the aquifer because precipitation and subsequent recharge can transport contaminants directly to the water table. Adjacent upland areas can also contribute contaminants. Confined aquifers are less susceptible to contamination from overlying land surface areas because confining units largely prevent downward movement of water. Recharge occurs elsewhere at unconfined upvalley locations and along valley walls where alluvial fans, ice-contact deposits, or stream incision into the valley wall may provide pathways for downward movement of groundwater.

New York↗

USGS2015

Simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of the effects of water-management options in the North Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska

The North Platte Natural Resources District (NPNRD) has been actively collecting data and studying groundwater resources because of concerns about the future availability of the highly inter-connected surface-water and groundwater resources. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, describes a groundwater-flow model of the North Platte River valley from Bridgeport, Nebraska, extending west to 6 miles into Wyoming. The model was built to improve the understanding of the interaction of surface-water and groundwater resources, and as an optimization tool, the model is able to analyze the effects of water-management options on the simulated stream base flow of the North Platte River. The groundwater system and related sources and sinks of water were simulated using a newton formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, referred to as MODFLOW–NWT, which provided an improved ability to solve nonlinear unconfined aquifer simulations with wetting and drying of cells. Using previously published aquifer-base-altitude contours in conjunction with newer test-hole and geophysical data, a new base-of-aquifer altitude map was generated because of the strong effect of the aquifer-base topography on groundwater-flow direction and magnitude. The largest inflow to groundwater is recharge originating from water leaking from canals, which is much larger than recharge originating from infiltration of precipitation. The largest component of groundwater discharge from the study area is to the North Platte River and its tributaries, with smaller amounts of discharge to evapotranspiration and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. Recharge from infiltration of precipitation was estimated with a daily soil-water-balance model. Annual recharge from canal seepage was estimated using available records from the Bureau of Reclamation and then modified with canal-seepage potentials estimated using geophysical data. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated using land-cover data, precipitation data, and published crop water-use data. For fields irrigated with surface water and groundwater, surface-water deliveries were subtracted from the estimated net irrigation requirement, and groundwater withdrawal was assumed to be equal to any demand unmet by surface water. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and stream base flows estimated using the base-flow index method. The model was calibrated through automated adjustments using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software (PEST). PEST was used to adjust 273 parameters, grouped as hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, spatial multipliers to recharge, temporal multipliers to recharge, and two specific recharge parameters. Base flow of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebraska, streamgage near the eastern, downstream end of the model was one of the primary calibration targets. Simulated base flow reasonably matched estimated base flow for this streamgage during 1950–2008, with an average difference of 15 percent. Overall, 1950–2008 simulated base flow followed the trend of the estimated base flow reasonably well, in cases with generally increasing or decreasing base flow from the start of the simulation to the end. Simulated base flow also matched estimated base flow reasonably well for most of the North Platte River tributaries with estimated base flow. Average simulated groundwater budgets during 1989–2008 were nearly three times larger for irrigation seasons than for non-irrigation seasons. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used with the Groundwater-Management Process for the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, MODFLOW–2005, to provide a tool for the NPNRD to better understand how water-management decisions could affect stream base flows of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebr., streamgage in a future period from 2008 to 2019 under varying climatic conditions. The simulation-optimization model was constructed to analyze the maximum increase in simulated stream base flow that could be obtained with the minimum amount of reductions in groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. A second analysis extended the first to analyze the simulated base-flow benefit of groundwater withdrawals along with application of intentional recharge, that is, water from canals being released into rangeland areas with sandy soils. With optimized groundwater withdrawals and intentional recharge, the maximum simulated stream base flow was 15–23 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) greater than with no management at all, or 10–15 ft 3 /s larger than with managed groundwater withdrawals only. These results indicate not only the amount that simulated stream base flow can be increased by these management options, but also the locations where the management options provide the most or least benefit to the simulated stream base flow. For the analyses in this report, simulated base flow was best optimized by reductions in groundwater withdrawals north of the North Platte River and in the western half of the area. Intentional recharge sites selected by the optimization had a complex distribution but were more likely to be closer to the North Platte River or its tributaries. Future users of the simulation-optimization model will be able to modify the input files as to type, location, and timing of constraints, decision variables of groundwater withdrawals by zone, and other variables to explore other feasible management scenarios that may yield different increases in simulated future base flow of the North Platte River.

Nebraska↗

USGS2020

Hydrogeologic characterization, groundwater chemistry, and vulnerability assessment, Ute Mountain Ute Reservation, Colorado and Utah

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (UMUT), initiated a study in 2016 to increase understanding of the hydrogeology and chemistry of groundwater within select areas of the Ute Mountain Ute Reservation (UMUR) in Colorado and Utah, identify vulnerabilities to the system and other natural resources, and outline information needs to aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources. The results presented for this study can be used to support the UMUT’s goal of protecting their vital groundwater resources on the UMUR. Hydrogeologic conditions were characterized for the surficial aquifer contained in Quaternary-age unconsolidated surficial deposits and the Dakota aquifer contained in the Cretaceous-age Dakota Sandstone. In the surficial aquifer, median depth to water ranges from about 5.4 to 17.2 feet below land surface in the Farm and Ranch Enterprise area and 11 to 34 feet below land surface in the Towaoc area, and the water table slopes generally southwest or south. A map of depth to the top of the Dakota Sandstone was constructed from existing well data. Depths range from zero in outcrop areas to more than 3,000 feet below land surface on mesas in the southeastern part of the UMUR. Groundwater-chemistry data were collected by the UMUT from 13 springs and 31 wells from 1996 through 2017. Specific conductance was much lower for samples from springs than from wells; median values were 512 and 6,024 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, respectively. Spring samples were well oxygenated. A few well samples were anoxic (dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 0.5 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), indicating reducing conditions in the aquifer. About 75 percent of spring samples had fresh water (total dissolved solids concentrations less than 1,000 mg/L), and about 85 percent of well samples had brackish or highly saline water (total dissolved solids concentrations greater than 1,000 mg/L). Water type for springs on the Ute Mountains was calcium bicarbonate. Lower-altitude springs had a calcium-sulfate water type. Most well samples had sodium as the dominant cation, and sulfate, bicarbonate, and chloride as the dominant anions. Fluoride concentrations in about 45 percent of well samples were greater than an agricultural-use standard of 2 mg/L. Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in most spring and well samples were less than about 1.6 mg/L per liter. Concentrations in samples from wells in the irrigated agricultural area were elevated; the maximum concentration was 78.5 mg/L. About one-half of the trace-element samples had concentrations that were less than laboratory reporting limits. Only aluminum, arsenic, and selenium in spring samples, and boron and selenium in well samples, were detected at concentrations greater than surface-water standards or water-quality standards for agricultural use of groundwater. Only three organic compounds, the pesticides alachlor and atrazine and the volatile organic compound di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, were detected in well samples. The Escherichia coli bacteria was detected in 47 and 23 percent of samples from wells and springs, respectively. The E. coli detections included samples from three culturally significant springs, which did not meet the UMUT cultural-use standard of total absence of E. coli. Tritium and carbon-14 were the primary environmental tracers used for interpreting groundwater ages for Lopez 2 Spring and five wells (AP–1, 5000 Block, Cottonwood Spring, Goodknight, and SE Toe). Water from the AP–1 well contained a mixture of pre- and post-1950s recharge. Tritium and carbon-14 recharge ages for Lopez 2 Spring (post-1950s in age), Goodknight and SE Toe wells (pre-1950s in age), and Cottonwood Spring well (primarily pre-1950s in age) are supported by helium-4 data. The helium-4 data for the 5000 Block well are inconsistent with the tritium and carbon-14 age of pre-1950s recharge because of interference caused by high methane concentrations in the water. Springs and surficial deposits are more vulnerable to contamination from anthropogenic chemicals than deeper bedrock wells. Bedrock aquifers are vulnerable in areas where the geologic formations containing the aquifers are exposed at the land surface. Groundwater in deep bedrock aquifers is likely thousands of years old and is not currently affected by present-day land uses. Both shallow and deep groundwater are vulnerable to naturally occurring salts and minerals, such as of total dissolved solids, major ions, nitrate, and trace elements. Effects of a changing climate on water resources and other ecological characteristics of the UMUR could include changes in evapotranspiration, a decrease in snowpack, decreased aquifer recharge and flow of springs, a decrease in soil moisture, and increased occurrence of wildfires and forest mortality. Of particular interest for the UMUT are possible effects of a changing climate on medicinal and culturally important plants and springs Several information needs were identified during this study that would aid in the understanding and protection of groundwater resources on the UMUR. These include well-completion information for bedrock wells, the collection of environmental tracer data at additional wells, the addition of methane and hydrocarbon analysis to well sampling plans, and the resampling of springs and wells that were last sampled in 2002 or earlier.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Borehole geophysical investigation of a formerly used defense site, Machiasport, Maine, 2003-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected borehole geophysical logs in 18 boreholes and interpreted the data along with logs from 19 additional boreholes as part of an ongoing, collaborative investigation at three environmental restoration sites in Machiasport, Maine. These sites, located on hilltops overlooking the seacoast, formerly were used for military defense. At each of the sites, chlorinated solvents, used as part of defense-site operations, have contaminated the fractured-rock aquifer. Borehole geophysical techniques and hydraulic methods were used to characterize bedrock lithology, fractures, and hydraulic properties. In addition, each geophysical method was evaluated for effectiveness for site characterization and for potential application for further aquifer characterization and (or) evaluation of remediation efforts. Results of borehole geophysical logging indicate the subsurface is highly fractured, metavolcanic, intrusive, metasedimentary bedrock. Selected geophysical logs were cross-plotted to assess correlations between rock properties. These plots included combinations of gamma, acoustic reflectivity, electromagnetic induction conductivity, normal resistivity, and single-point resistance. The combined use of acoustic televiewer (ATV) imaging and natural gamma logs proved to be effective for delineating rock types. Each of the rock units in the study area could be mapped in the boreholes, on the basis of the gamma and ATV reflectivity signatures. The gamma and mean ATV reflectivity data were used along with the other geophysical logs for an integrated interpretation, yielding a determination of quartz monzonite, rhyolite, metasedimentary units, or diabase/gabbro rock types. The interpretation of rock types on the basis of the geophysical logs compared well to drilling logs and geologic mapping. These results may be helpful for refining the geologic framework at depth. A stereoplot of all fractures intersecting the boreholes indicates numerous fractures, a high proportion of steeply dipping fractures, and considerable variation in fracture orientation. Low-dip-angle fractures associated with unloading and exfoliation are also present, especially at a depth of less than 100 feet below the top of casing. These sub-horizontal fractures help to connect the steeply dipping fractures, making this a highly connected fracture network. The high variability in the fracture orientations also increases the connectivity of the fracture network. A preliminary comparison of all fracture data from all the boreholes suggests fracturing decreases with depth. Because all the boreholes were not drilled to the same depth, however, there is a clear sampling bias. Hence, the deepest boreholes are analyzed separately for fracture density. For the deepest boreholes in the study, the intensity of fracturing does not decline significantly with depth. It is possible the fractures observed in these boreholes become progressively tighter or closed with depth, but this is difficult to verify with the borehole methods used in this investigation. The fact that there are more sealed fractures at depth (observed in optical televiewer logs in some of the boreholes) may indicate less opening of the sealed fractures, less water moving through the rock, and less weathering of the fracture infilling minerals. Although the fracture orientation remained fairly constant with depth, differences in the fracture patterns for the three restoration sites indicate the orientation of fractures varies across the study area. The fractures in boreholes on Miller Mountain predominantly strike northwest-southeast, and to a lesser degree they strike northeast. The fractures on or near the summit of Howard Mountain strike predominantly east-west and dip north and south, and the fractures near the Transmitter Site strike northeast-southwest and dip northwest and southeast. The fracture populations for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain show more variation than at the other two sites. This variation may be related to the proximity of the fault, which is northeast of the summit of Howard Mountain. In a side-by-side comparison of stereoplots from selected boreholes, there was no clear correspondence between fracture orientation and proximity to the fault. There is, however, a difference in the total populations of fractures for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain and the boreholes near the Transmitter Site. Further to the southwest and further away from the fault, the fractures at the Transmitter Site predominantly strike northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast.Heat-pulse flowmeter (HPFM) logging was used to identify transmissive fractures and to estimate the hydraulic properties along the boreholes. Ambient downflow was measured in 13 boreholes and ambient upflow was measured in 9 boreholes. In nine other bedrock boreholes, the HPFM did not detect measurable vertical flow. The observed direction of vertical flow in the boreholes generally was consistent with the conceptual flow model of downward movement in recharge locations and upward flow in discharge locations or at breaks in the slope of land surface. Under low-rate pumping or injection rates [0.25 to 1 gallon per minute (gal/min)], one to three inflow zones were identified in each borehole. Two limitations of HPFM methods are (1) the HPFM can only identify zones within 1.5 to 2 orders of magnitude of the most transmissive zone in each borehole, and (2) the HPFM cannot detect flow rates less than 0.010 + or - 0.005 gal/min, which corresponds to a transmissivity of about 1 foot squared per day (ft2/d). Consequently, the HPFM is considered an effective tool for identifying the most transmissive fractures in a borehole, down to its detection level. Transmissivities below that cut-off must be measured with another method, such as packer testing or fluid-replacement logging. Where sufficient water-level and flowmeter data were available, HPFM results were numerically modeled. For each borehole model, the fracture location and measured flow rates were specified, and the head and transmissivity of each fracture zone were adjusted until a model fit was achieved with the interpreted ambient and stressed flow profiles. The transmissivities calculated by this method are similar to the results of an open-hole slug test; with the added information from the flowmeter, however, the head and transmissivity of discrete zones also can be determined. The discrete-interval transmissivities ranged from 0.16 to 330 ft2/d. The flowmeter-derived open-hole transmissivity, which is the combined total of each of the transmissive zones, ranged from 1 to 511 ft2/d. The whole-well open-hole transmissivity values determined with HPFM methods were compared to the results of open-hole hydraulic tests. Despite the fact that the flowmeter-derived transmissivities consistently were lower than the estimates derived from open-hole hydraulic tests alone, the correlation was very strong (with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.9866), indicating the HPFM method provides a reasonable estimate of transmissivities for the most transmissive fractures in the borehole. Geologic framework, fracture characterization, and estimates of hydraulic properties were interpreted together to characterize the fracture network. The data and interpretation presented in this report should provide information useful for site investigators as the conceptual site groundwater flow model is refined. Collectively, the results and the conceptual site model are important for evaluating remediation options and planning or implementing the design of a well field and borehole completions that will be adequate for monitoring flow, remediation efforts, groundwater levels, and (or) water quality. Similar kinds of borehole geophysical logging (specifically the borehole imaging, gamma, fluid logs, and HPFM) should be conducted in any newly installed boreholes and integrated with interpretations of any nearby boreholes. If boreholes are installed close to existing or other new boreholes, cross-hole flowmeter surveys may be appropriate and may help characterize the aquifer properties and connections between the boreholes.

Maine↗

USGS2020

Landscape and climatic influences on actual evapotranspiration and available water using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) Model in eastern Bernalillo County, New Mexico, 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a 1-year study in 2015 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of evapotranspiration (ET) and available water within the East Mountain area in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. ET and available water vary spatiotemporally because of complex interactions among environmental factors, including vegetation characteristics, soil characteristics, topography, and climate. Precipitation data from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) ( P ) were used in conjunction with actual ET ( ETa ) data from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate available water ( P – ETa ) at 100-meter (m) resolution in the study area. Maps, descriptive statistics, boxplots, regression analyses (continuous data), and multiple comparison tests (categorical data) were used to characterize P , ETa , and available water and their relations to topographic, soil, and vegetation datasets in the East Mountain area. Five categories of the natural land-cover type (evergreen forest, shrub, herbaceous, deciduous forest, and mixed forest) and four categories of developed land-cover type specific to residential intensity (developed open, developed low, developed medium, and developed high) were analyzed individually and in interaction with multiple elevation, tree canopy, and soil texture classes. Annual mean P in 2015 in the East Mountain area was 608 millimeters (mm), and annual mean ETa was 543 mm (89 percent of annual P in 2015), indicating that in 2015, a spatial mean of about 65 mm of water was available for runoff, soil moisture replenishment, or groundwater recharge. Monthly ETa was greatest in July and smallest in January. The intervening months did not show smooth temporal or consistent spatial changes from month to month. Months with lower ETa (January to March, October to December) also tended to have greater available water, indicating that soil moisture (water supply) and potential ET (water demand) may have been out of phase. Regression analyses showed that monthly ETa data had the highest correlation with annual ETa among the atmospheric, topographic, soil, or vegetation datasets, particularly during the early and late growing season (March, April, May, and September). In contrast, monthly P was highly variable and not as highly correlated with annual ETa . Among landscape variables, correlations with annual ETa were highest for tree canopy cover (coefficient of determination [R 2 ] = 0.46). Correlations between ETa and other landscape variables were lower (R 2 = 0.06–0.19): available soil water in the top 100 centimeters, soil bulk density of layer 1, slope, sand content of soil layer 1, soil depth, available soil water in the top 25 centimeters, leaf area index, aspect eastness, and elevation. Evergreen forest areas had the highest annual median ETa , followed by mixed forest, open residential areas, and deciduous forest. Available water typically was higher in landcover types with lower ETa : herbaceous cover, followed by deciduous forest, high-intensity developed areas, and shrub. Deciduous forest had the second highest median available water, despite having the fourth highest ETa , because deciduous forest had greater P than most other areas. Annual median ETa typically was greatest in the second highest elevation band (2,401–2,800 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]), and lower in the highest elevation band (2,801–3,254 m above NAVD 88), despite having greater P , likely because of decreased tree canopy cover or a shift from evergreen to deciduous trees at the highest elevations. Annual median ETa increased with tree canopy cover, regardless of landcover type. ETa correlation was higher with tree canopy than with leaf area index or normalized difference vegetation index. This result indicates that it is important to include the thermal band (from satellite multispectral data) in vegetation indices used to describe ETa , perhaps to account for the influence of energy limitation or water limitation on ET. Of all natural landcover types, finer soils had the most available water, whereas coarser soils had the least available water. Relations of soil type with P – ETa were different than with ETa , indicating ET and available water have a complex response to differences in soil type. Further modeling would be useful in determining soils’ infiltration, storage, conductivity, and plant-water availability relations to individual storms for each position in the landscape, as well as the corresponding effects of these processes on ET and available water. The best multivariate linear model for annual ETa had an R 2 value of 0.62. Monthly ETa models had R 2 values between 0.16 and 0.65. Models usually, but not always, performed best during the growing season. These results indicate that even the best multivariate linear models cannot explain a notable amount of the variability in ET. The monthly ETa models with the highest correlations (August and September) followed a July having almost twice the mean precipitation for July (1981–2010), which indicates that a soil-moisture variable is needed to more accurately model monthly ETa . Further study is needed to better characterize this system, the variables that affect ET and available water, and the partitioning of available water into runoff, soil moisture storage, and groundwater recharge.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—Comparison of four (2018, 2020, 2021, 2022) spring high-resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This report summarizes results from boat-based, high-resolution water-quality mapping surveys completed before, during, and after upgrades to the EchoWater Resource Recovery Facility (EchoWater Facility), the regional wastewater facility for the City of Sacramento and surrounding areas, near Elk Grove, California. Surveys were completed in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) in spring (May or June) 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022. In each survey, a suite of in situ sensors were used to continuously (one measurement per second) measure water-quality conditions, nutrients, phytoplankton abundance, and species composition. In addition to in situ data collection, discrete water samples were collected about every 2 miles while underway for determination of phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate concentration. The boat stopped at about 30 locations to collect discrete samples for a suite of additional analytes, including phytoplankton enumeration. The four surveys represent snapshots in time across different phases of the EchoWater Facility Biological Nutrient Reduction (BNR) upgrade. The May 2018 survey represents conditions before the upgrade. The second survey (June 2020) represents conditions after implementation of the Nitrifying Sidestream Treatment. The third survey (May 2021) was completed immediately after the completion of the BNR upgrade and represents a transitional period, and the final survey (May 2022) represents post-upgrade conditions. Relevant hydrologic and climatic context such as water-year type, X 2 position (the distance from the Golden Gate Bridge to the point upstream where bottom salinity is 2 parts per thousand; Jassby and others, 1995), water export to import ratio, and management actions like the Delta Cross Channel gate operations are presented for each survey so they may be considered in comparisons among surveys. Differences in water-quality parameters, like turbidity, temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) improve understanding of nutrient cycling and phytoplankton dynamics. Because the Delta is a complex system, we divided the study area into hydrologic zones to better examine general trends and obtain a broadscale view of differences among the 4 study years. Results are presented for each survey and parameter using box plots to compare the different hydrologic zones. We also present each parameter using contour maps by survey to display gradients across the system. The most evident change to water quality in the Delta across surveys is related to the EchoWater Facility BNR upgrade, which included nitrification and denitrification processes. Through this upgrade, effluent ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations were reduced by more than 95 percent (from about 2,000 micromolars [μM] to below the reporting limit of 35 μM), and nitrate (NO 3 − ) concentrations increased from near zero to about 500 μM; therefore, the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; the sum of NH 4 + and NO 3 − ) in the effluent was reduced by about 75 percent between May 2018 and May 2022. The BNR upgrade resulted in a reduction in NH 4 + concentrations in aquatic habitats immediately below the facility, designated as the “north Delta tidal transition zone” (Bergamaschi and others, 2024), from about 30 μM pre-upgrade to near zero during the 2022 spring survey, whereas effluent NO 3 − increased from median concentrations of about 7 μM to about 15 μM. Because of the reduced effluent nitrogen loads and variability in Sacramento River nitrogen loads from upstream sources, DIN concentrations in the north Delta tidal transition zone decreased from a median of 53.3 μM in 2018 to 35.3 μM in 2020, 20.7 μM in 2021, and 11.3 μM in 2022 during the spring surveys. The changes in DIN concentration and form observed in the north Delta tidal transition zone after the EchoWater Facility upgrade extended downstream but were rapidly altered by hydrologic mixing, biogeochemical processes, and other nutrient source inputs. Most of the Delta indicated near-zero concentrations of NH 4 + 1 year after the completion of the EchoWater Facility upgrades represented by the 2022 survey. Exceptions to this finding were observed in the San Joaquin River near Stockton and in Suisun Bay, indicating there are NH 4 + inputs to these locations from other sources (for example, Stockton Regional Wastewater Control Facility and Central Contra Costs Sanitary District wastewater treatment plants or agricultural and urban runoff). Although there was an increase in NO 3 − concentrations in the north Delta tidal transition zone after the upgrade, increases in NO 3 − in other zones were not apparent, presumably because nitrification of effluent derived ammonium was no longer a source of NO 3 − . Concentrations of DIN in many Delta zones were lower in 2022 compared to 2018 and 2020, with concentrations near or below what is considered potentially nitrogen limiting conditions for phytoplankton growth in the North Delta tidal transition zone and the Cache Slough complex channel system. Unrelated to the EchoWater Facility upgrade, NO 3 − and therefore DIN concentrations increased in the San Joaquin River near Stockton and in adjacent water bodies by survey date (likely associated with increasing drought conditions). The Mokelumne River had low DIN concentrations, except in 2018 when the Delta Cross Channel was open, which allowed nutrient-rich Sacramento River water to flow into this section of the river. Data from these surveys also support the hypothesis that nutrient drawdown during phytoplankton blooms may create localized nitrogen limiting conditions. The BNR upgrade resulted in lower effluent phosphate (PO 4 3− ) concentrations, which lowered PO 4 3− concentrations in some zones of the Delta during the four spring surveys; however, PO 4 3− concentrations throughout the Delta remained above 0.3 μM, indicating that primary productivity was not limited by phosphorous availability. DIN and PO 4 3− decreased after the upgrade in many areas of the Delta, and the DIN to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIN:DIP) ratio remained similar to pre-upgrade conditions and was often below the Redfield Ratio of 16, indicating nitrogen is more likely to limit phytoplankton growth than phosphorous. Inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the EchoWater Facility are a minor source of this constituent to the Delta, so the upgrade had little to no effect on DOC concentrations across the Delta. Because phytoplankton abundance and species composition in the Delta are shaped by multiple factors other than nutrients (for example, light availability, temperature, salinity, and predation), it is important to consider these factors (as well as long-term monitoring) in addition to the EchoWater Facility upgrade. Although phytoplankton populations were low across much of the Delta during the spring surveys, several localized phytoplankton blooms (defined here as greater than 15 micrograms per liter [μg/L] of chlorophyll) provide insight into conditions that may favor the growth of beneficial and harmful species.

Callifornia↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic assessment of the shallow groundwater flow system beneath the Shinnecock Nation tribal lands, Suffolk County, New York

Defining the distribution and flow of shallow groundwater beneath the Shinnecock Nation tribal lands in Suffolk County, New York, is a crucial first step in identifying sources of potential contamination to the surficial aquifer and coastal ecosystems. The surficial or water table aquifer beneath the tribal lands is the primary source of potable water supply for at least 6 percent of the households on the tribal lands. Oyster fisheries and other marine ecosystems are critical to the livelihood of many residents living on the tribal lands, but are susceptible to contamination from groundwater entering the embayment from the surficial aquifer. Contamination of the surficial aquifer from flooding during intense coastal storms, nutrient loading from fertilizers, and septic effluent have been identified as potential sources of human and ecological health concerns on tribal lands. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) facilitated the installation of 17 water table wells on and adjacent to the tribal lands during March 2014. These wells were combined with other existing wells to create a 32-well water table monitoring network that was used to assess local hydrologic conditions. Survey-grade, global-navigation-satellite systems provided centimeter-level accuracy for positioning wellhead surveys. Water levels were measured by the USGS during May (spring) and November (fall) 2014 to evaluate seasonal effects on the water table. Water level measurements were made at high and low tide during May 2014 to identify potential effects on the water table caused by changes in tidal stage (tidal flux) in Shinnecock Bay. Water level contour maps indicate that the surficial aquifer is recharged by precipitation and upgradient groundwater flow that moves from the recharge zone located generally beneath Sunrise Highway, to the discharge zone beneath the tribal lands, and eventually discharges into the embayment, tidal creeks, and estuaries that bound the tribal lands to the east, south, and west. Water levels in many of the wells in the network fluctuated in response to precipitation, upgradient groundwater flow, and tidal flux in Shinnecock Bay. Water level altitudes ranged from 6.66 to 0.47 feet (ft) above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 during the spring measurement period, and from 5.25 to -0.24 ft (NAVD 88) during fall 2014. Historically, annual and seasonal precipitation seem to indicate long-term water level trends in an index well located in the town of Southampton, correlates with changes in storage in the upper glacial aquifer, but does not necessarily indicate water level extremes in the shallow groundwater system. To place the study period in perspective, calendar year 2014 was the 32d wettest year on record, with precipitation for the year totaling 48.1 inches, a 2.6-percent increase from the annual average (46.9 inches per year), based on 81 years of complete record at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service cooperative meteorological station at Bridgehampton, New York. Estimated recharge to the water table beneath the tribal lands from precipitation for 2014 is 25.4 inches. Tidal flux caused water levels in wells to fluctuate from 0.30 to -0.24 ft during May 2014. Water levels in wells located north of Old Fort Pond and beneath the southernmost extent of the tribal lands were most influenced by tidal flux. During June 2014, hydrographs indicate that tidal flux influenced water levels by 0.48 ft in a well located near the southernmost extent of the tribal lands approximately 0.3 miles north of Shinnecock Bay, and was zero at a well located approximately 0.5 miles south of Montauk Highway, and 0.4 miles west of Heady Creek, near the geographic center of the tribal lands. Tidal-influence delay time (time interval between peak high-tide stage and corresponding peak high-water level) ranged from 1.75 hours at the well located near the southernmost extent of the tribal lands, to more than 4 hours at a well located north of Old Fort Pond, near the northwestern part of the tribal lands. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity values derived from the results of specific-capacity tests that were completed at nine observation wells during March 2015 were used to calculate average linear velocity. Average linear velocity along conceptualized flow-path segments of the upper glacial aquifer located beneath the tribal lands was estimated using an assumed effective porosity value, and hydraulic-conductivity and hydraulic-head values that were interpolated from measured values. Groundwater travel times were estimated by dividing the length of the flow-path segment by the average linear velocity along the flow-path segment. Total estimated groundwater travel time along a conceptualized flow path, beginning near Sunrise Highway and terminating at Shinnecock Bay, is approximately 45 years using a porosity value of 30 percent. A surficial-silty unit was identified from approximately 0 to 10 ft below land surface at multiple locations beneath the tribal lands. The lithology of the surficial unit was verified by interpreted gamma log results obtained from select wells, and auger-rig drill cuttings from an observation well located near the geographic center of the tribal lands. The altitude of the unit varies with topography and was delineated along a cross section line that trends north-south along the approximate centerline (spine) of the tribal lands. The altitude of the hydrogeologic contact between the upper glacial and the Magothy aquifers generally decreases from northwest to southeast, occurs at a depth ranging from about 150 to 200 ft beneath the tribal lands, and was identified at two locations north of the tribal lands, near Sunrise Highway and Sebonac Road. Results of electrical geophysical surveys indicate that the depth to the freshwater/saltwater interface decreases from north to south with decreasing water level altitude, and the Magothy and upper glacial aquifers contain saltwater at varying depths along the north-south trending section. Results of the surveys also indicate that the Magothy aquifer beneath the tribal lands contains brackish and salty water and is not considered a source of potable water supply. In general, depth to the interface increases with increasing geographic distance from the coastline. Low water table altitudes can result in increased saltwater encroachment into the surficial aquifer beneath the tribal lands. This upward movement and shallow depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface can jeopardize water quality in wells that supply water for domestic use.

New York↗

USGS2017

Water-level altitudes 2017 and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper Aquifers and compaction 1973–2016 in the Chicot and Evangeline Aquifers, Houston-Galveston region, Texas

Most of the land-surface subsidence in the Houston-Galveston region, Texas, has occurred as a direct result of groundwater withdrawals for municipal supply, commercial and industrial use, and irrigation that depressured and dewatered the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, thereby causing compaction of the aquifer sediments, mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District, City of Houston, Fort Bend Subsidence District, Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District, and Brazoria County Groundwater Conservation District, is one in an annual series of reports depicting water-level altitudes and water-level changes in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and measured cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the Houston-Galveston region. This report contains regional-scale maps depicting approximate 2017 water-level altitudes (represented by measurements made during December 2016 through March 2017) and long-term water-level changes for the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers; a map depicting locations of borehole-extensometer (hereinafter referred to as “extensometer”) sites; and graphs depicting measured long-term cumulative compaction of subsurface sediments at the extensometers during 1973–2016. In 2017, water-level-altitude contours for the Chicot aquifer ranged from 200 feet (ft) below the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (hereinafter referred to as “datum”) in two localized areas in southwestern and northwestern Harris County to 200 ft above datum in west-central Montgomery County. The largest water-level-altitude decline (120 ft) depicted by the 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Chicot aquifer was in northwestern Harris County. A broad area where water-level altitudes declined in the Chicot aquifer extends from northwestern, north-central, and southwestern Harris County across parts of north-central, eastern, and south-central Fort Bend County into southeastern Waller County. Adjacent to the areas where water levels declined was a broad area where water levels rose in central, eastern, and southeastern Harris County, most of Galveston County, eastern and northernmost Brazoria County, and northeastern Fort Bend County. The largest rise (200 ft) in water-level altitudes in the Chicot aquifer from 1977 to 2017 was in southeastern Harris County. The water-level-altitude contours for the Evangeline aquifer in 2017 indicated two areas where the water-level altitudes were 250 ft below datum—one area extending from south-central Montgomery County into north-central Harris County and another area in western Harris County. Water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer ranged from 50 to 200 ft below datum throughout most of Harris County in 2017. In Montgomery County, water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer in 2017 ranged from the aforementioned area where they were 250 ft below datum to an area where they were 200 ft above datum in the northwestern part of the county. The 1977–2017 water-level-change contours for the Evangeline aquifer depict a broad area where water-level altitudes declined in north-central Harris and south-central Montgomery Counties, extending through north-central, northwestern, and southwestern Harris County into western Liberty, southeastern and northeastern Waller, and northeastern and east-central Fort Bend Counties. The largest water-level-altitude decline (280 ft) was in north-central Harris and south-central Montgomery Counties. Water-level altitudes rose in a broad area from central, east-central, and southern Harris County extending into the northernmost part of Brazoria County, the northernmost part of Galveston County, and the southwestern area of Liberty County. The largest rise in water-level altitudes in the Evangeline aquifer from 1977 to 2017 (240 ft) was in southeastern Harris County. Water-level-altitude contours for the Jasper aquifer in 2017 ranged from 200 ft below datum in three isolated areas of south-central Montgomery County (the westernmost of these areas extended slightly into north-central Harris County) to 250 ft above datum in extreme northwestern Montgomery County, northeastern Grimes County, and southwestern Walker County. The 2000–17 water-level-change contours for the Jasper aquifer depict water-level declines in a broad area throughout most of Montgomery County and in parts of Waller, Grimes, and Harris Counties, with the largest decline (220 ft) in an isolated area in south-central Montgomery County. Compaction of subsurface sediments (mostly in the fine-grained silt and clay layers) in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was recorded continuously by using 13 extensometers at 11 sites that were either activated or installed between 1973 and 1980. During the period of record beginning in 1973 (or later depending on activation or installation date) and ending in late November or December 2016, measured cumulative compaction at the 13 extensometers ranged from 0.096 ft at the Texas City-Moses Lake extensometer to 3.700 ft at the Addicks extensometer. From January through late November or December 2016, the Addicks, Lake Houston, Southwest, and Northeast extensometers recorded net decreases in land-surface elevation, but the Baytown C–1 (shallow), Baytown C–2 (deep), Clear Lake (shallow), Clear Lake (deep), East End, Johnson Space Center, Pasadena, Seabrook, and Texas City-Moses Lake extensometers recorded net increases in land-surface elevation. The rate of compaction varies from site to site because of differences in rates of groundwater withdrawal in the areas adjacent to each extensometer site; differences among sites in the ratios of sand, silt, and clay and their corresponding compressibilities; and previously established preconsolidation heads. It is not appropriate, therefore, to extrapolate or infer a rate of compaction for an adjacent area on the basis of the rate of compaction recorded by proximal extensometers.

Texas↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2021

Groundwater/surface-water interactions in the Partridge River Basin and evaluation of hypothetical future mine pits, Minnesota

The Partridge River Basin (PRB) covers 156 square miles in northeastern Minnesota with headwaters in the Mesabi Iron Range. The basin is characterized by extensive wetlands, lakes, and streams in poorly drained and often thin glacial material overlying Proterozoic bedrock. To better understand the interaction between these extensive surface water features and the groundwater system, a three-dimensional, steady-state, groundwater-flow model of the PRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission using the finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state base flow in streams and groundwater interactions using the streamflow routing (SFR2) package. Existing mining features including tailings basins, stockpiles, pumped mine pits, and flooded mine pits were simulated using either high hydraulic conductivity zones or the drain (DRN) package. The unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package was used to better represent the groundwater system in areas with a high water table and for wetlands often associated with such areas. UZF typically is used to represent unsaturated zone processes but also can simulate the rejection of recharge and groundwater discharge to the land surface when the water table is near land surface. The steady-state model used data from the 2011 to 2013 period when 2011 high-resolution land surface (light detecting and ranging [lidar]) data were available that reflected land-surface and water elevations from mining activity in the basin. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST_HP was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels, streamflow, pit inflow rates, and mapped peat deposits. The PEST calibration used the target residuals from two models with the same model parameters and targets from two separate periods: (1) a 1995–2015 calibration model, which provided a larger number of calibration targets, and (2) a 2011–2013 mining conditions model, which included calibration targets that reflected conditions consistent with the modeled mine-workings topography. Calibration of the PRB model resulted in ranges of glacial horizontal hydraulic conductivity parameters that generally agreed with literature values and other models of the region. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher in the upper bedrock layers where numerous and continuous fractures have been observed and lower in the deeper bedrock layers. Average basin-wide calibrated infiltration was 5.3 inches per year. An average of 4.6 inches per year of infiltration crosses the water table and becomes recharge and 0.7 inch per year is rejected by UZF due to saturated conditions at the land surface. Simulated groundwater runoff (the sum of rejected recharge and groundwater seepage to the land surface) can either be routed to streams or removed from the model as evapotranspiration. The calibrated model indicates relatively shallow groundwater-flow paths dominating and approximately 50 percent of the stream base flow coming from groundwater runoff. The 2011–2013 mining conditions model was then used to develop five model scenarios simulating the response of the groundwater and surface-water system to potential hydrologic stress. The purpose of these mine pit scenarios is to present a possible workflow to quantify a model’s uncertainty for a given model forecast and serve as a possible guide for initial data collection that may improve a future model’s ability to make such a forecast. The scenarios included one scenario with the currently existing Peter Mitchell pit at final buildout and flooded to an elevation of 1,500 feet, and four scenarios with a hypothetical, new mine pit plus the flooded Peter Mitchell at final buildout. The five model scenarios were used to forecast streamflow at six locations in the PRB, pit inflow rates for the new mine pits and the flooded Peter Mitchell pit, and the average depth to water in 12 wetlands. A linear uncertainty analysis was performed using information from the PEST calibration and tools in the PyEMU python package to assess model uncertainty propagation to the model forecasts. Streamflows generally were reduced with future mining and the greatest streamflow reductions occurred from the flooded Peter Mitchell Pit, probably due to its large size. Average depth to groundwater in wetlands was most affected the closer the wetland was to a new mine pit. Linear uncertainty methods were also used to evaluate data worth, which is the ability for potential new groundwater elevation observations to reduce the uncertainty in scenario forecasts. Data worth was performed for a grid of new hydraulic head observations. Overall, areas with nonnegligible data worth generally corresponded to wetland areas with no groundwater seepage to land surface from UZF. These model behaviors indicated that the land-surface boundary condition simulated by the UZF package was pinning the groundwater elevations to the land surface in areas with groundwater seepage (33 percent of the 2011–2013 base conditions model) such that the sensitivity to new observations in these areas was minimal. Therefore, representing wetlands as boundary conditions minimized the usefulness of data worth calculations because wetland areas were present over a large part of the model domain. Probabilistic capture zones were estimated for each of the mines in the model scenarios. A capture zone represents the area contributing recharge to a model feature, like a well or a mine pit, and can be calculated by forward tracking particles from the water table. By using Monte Carlo techniques, it is possible to generate estimated capture zones that include the probability of recharge capture given the uncertainty present in the model. Monte Carlo techniques use randomly generated model parameter sets sampled from a plausible parameter range to create many possible realizations. The resulting capture zone arrays were calculated by tallying the total number of realizations in which a particle from a model cell was captured by the feature. Probabilities from the Monte Carlo runs ranged from 1 (captured in 100 percent of the runs) near the pits to 0 (captured in 0 percent of the runs) at the edges of the capture zone. Capture zones were not always spatially continuous; for example, the capture zone for the proposed mine pits south of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit was discontinuous with capture surrounding the proposed mine pit and north of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit. This northern section represents deeper groundwater flow paths that originate in the topographic high, move under the flooded pit, and discharge into the proposed pit. This pattern of capture indicates the possibility of some deeper flow through the upper fractured bedrock when the shallow groundwater flow system is modified. These results underscore that future site-specific applications of the base condition model require the input of site-specific data and recalibration to focus on the site of interest.

Minnesota↗

USGS2006

Hydrogeologic framework refinement, ground-water flow and storage, water-chemistry analyses, and water-budget components of the Yuma area, southwestern Arizona and southeastern California

The ground-water and surface-water system in the Yuma area in southwestern Arizona and southeastern California is managed intensely to meet water-delivery requirements of customers in the United States, to manage high ground-water levels in the valleys, and to maintain treaty-mandated water-quality and quantity requirements of Mexico. The following components in this report, which were identified to be useful in the development of a ground-water management model, are: (1) refinement of the hydrogeologic framework; (2) updated water-level maps, general ground-water flow patterns, and an estimate of the amount of ground water stored in the mound under Yuma Mesa; (3) review and documentation of the ground-water budget calculated by the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior (Reclamation); and (4) water-chemistry characterization to identify the spatial distribution of water quality, information on sources and ages of ground water, and information about the productive-interval depths of the aquifer. A refined three-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework model includes the following hydrogeologic units from bottom to top: (1) the effective hydrologic basement of the basin aquifer, which includes the Pliocene Bouse Formation, Tertiary volcanic and sedimentary rocks, and pre-Tertiary metamorphic and plutonic rocks; (2) undifferentiated lower units to represent the Pliocene transition zone and wedge zone; (3) coarse-gravel unit; (4) lower, middle, and upper basin fill to represent the upper, fine-grained zone between the top of the coarse-gravel unit and the land surface; and (5) clay A and clay B. Data for the refined model includes digital elevation models, borehole lithology data, geophysical data, and structural data to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units. The top surface of the coarse-gravel unit, defined by using borehole and geophysical data, varies similarly to terraces resulting from the down cutting of the Colorado River. Clay A is nearly the same as the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model definition (Olmsted and others, 1973), except for a minor westward extension from the city of Yuma. Clay B is extended to the southerly international boundary and increased in areal extent by about two-thirds of the original extent (Olmsted and others, 1973). The other hydrogeologic units generally are the same as in the previous conceptual hydrogeologic model. Before development, the Colorado and Gila Rivers were the sources of nearly all the ground water in the Yuma area through direct infiltration of water from river channels and annual overbank flooding. After construction of upstream reservoirs and clearing and irrigation of the floodplains, the rivers now act as drains for the ground water. Ground-water levels in most of the Yuma area are higher now than they were in predevelopment time. A general gradient of ground-water flow toward the natural discharge area south of the Yuma area still exists, but many other changes in flow are evident. Ground water in Yuma Valley once flowed away from the Colorado River, but now has a component of flow towards the river and Mexicali Valley. A ground-water mound has formed under Yuma Mesa from long-term surface-water irrigation; about 600,000 to 800,000 acre-ft of water are stored in the mound. Ground-water withdrawals adjacent to the southerly international boundary have resulted in water-level declines in that area. The reviewed and documented water budget includes the following components: (1) recharge in irrigated areas, (2) evapotranspiration by irrigated crops and phreatophytes, (3) ground-water return flow to the Colorado River, and (4) ground-water withdrawals (including those in Mexicali Valley). Recharge components were calculated by subtracting the amount of water used by crops from the amount of water delivered. Evapotranspiration rates were calculated on the basis of established methods, thus were appropriate for input to the ground-water flow model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation (William Greer, hydrologist, Bureau of Reclamation, written commun., 2005). Evapotranspiration by crops and phreatophytes were calculated by using crop coefficient methods and meteorological data. Other methods of calculating evapotranspiration rates by using combinations of satellite imagery and ground-based data could be used for higher spatial and temporal resolution. Ground-water return flow during years of low flow on the Colorado River (1972–82, 1987–92, and 1994–96) averaged 79,000 acre-ft per year. Ground-water withdrawal data for 1970–99 were similar to other estimates made by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Yuma area. New water-chemistry data were collected in 12 wells and 8 canals/drains to characterize spatial patterns in chemical constituents, determine isotopic ages of water, infer possible sources of ground water, and locate the vertical intervals of the aquifer that contribute most water to wells. Depth-dependent samples were collected at one of the wells (YM-10). A large quantity of water-quality data were compiled from Bureau of Reclamation and U.S. Geological Survey records and merged into the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database. New samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, tritium ( 3 H), and carbon-14 ( 14 C) (along with C 13 /C 12 ratios). Light values of oxygen-18 ( 18 O) and deuterium ( 2 H, D) in well 242-2 indicate recharge from the Colorado River. Heavy water samples from wells 242-22, CADC, and Mesa del Sol indicate local recharge sources. Tritium data indicate there is young water in wells in the valleys and near the edge of Yuma Mesa, while older water is found far from the Colorado River. 14 C data indicate that water from wells near the southerly international boundary is at least several thousand years old.

Arizona, California↗

USGS2013

The use of process models to inform and improve statistical models of nitrate occurrence, Great Miami River Basin, southwestern Ohio

Statistical models of nitrate occurrence in the glacial aquifer system of the northern United States, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, use observed relations between nitrate concentrations and sets of explanatory variables—representing well-construction, environmental, and source characteristics— to predict the probability that nitrate, as nitrogen, will exceed a threshold concentration. However, the models do not explicitly account for the processes that control the transport of nitrogen from surface sources to a pumped well and use area-weighted mean spatial variables computed from within a circular buffer around the well as a simplified source-area conceptualization. The use of models that explicitly represent physical-transport processes can inform and, potentially, improve these statistical models. Specifically, groundwater-flow models simulate advective transport—predominant in many surficial aquifers— and can contribute to the refinement of the statistical models by (1) providing for improved, physically based representations of a source area to a well, and (2) allowing for more detailed estimates of environmental variables. A source area to a well, known as a contributing recharge area, represents the area at the water table that contributes recharge to a pumped well; a well pumped at a volumetric rate equal to the amount of recharge through a circular buffer will result in a contributing recharge area that is the same size as the buffer but has a shape that is a function of the hydrologic setting. These volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas will approximate circular buffers in areas of relatively flat hydraulic gradients, such as near groundwater divides, but in areas with steep hydraulic gradients will be elongated in the upgradient direction and agree less with the corresponding circular buffers. The degree to which process-model-estimated contributing recharge areas, which simulate advective transport and therefore account for local hydrologic settings, would inform and improve the development of statistical models can be implicitly estimated by evaluating the differences between explanatory variables estimated from the contributing recharge areas and the circular buffers used to develop existing statistical models. The larger the difference in estimated variables, the more likely that statistical models would be changed, and presumably improved, if explanatory variables estimated from contributing recharge areas were used in model development. Comparing model predictions from the two sets of estimated variables would further quantify—albeit implicitly—how an improved, physically based estimate of explanatory variables would be reflected in model predictions. Differences between the two sets of estimated explanatory variables and resultant model predictions vary spatially; greater differences are associated with areas of steep hydraulic gradients. A direct comparison, however, would require the development of a separate set of statistical models using explanatory variables from contributing recharge areas. Area-weighted means of three environmental variables—silt content, alfisol content, and depth to water from the U.S. Department of Agriculture State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) data—and one nitrogen-source variable (fertilizer-application rate from county data mapped to Enhanced National Land Cover Data 1992 (NLCDe 92) agricultural land use) can vary substantially between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas and among contributing recharge areas for different sets of well variables. The differences in estimated explanatory variables are a function of the same factors affecting the contributing recharge areas as well as the spatial resolution and local distribution of the underlying spatial data. As a result, differences in estimated variables between circular buffers and contributing recharge areas are complex and site specific as evidenced by differences in estimated variables for circular buffers and contributing recharge areas of existing public-supply and network wells in the Great Miami River Basin. Large differences in areaweighted mean environmental variables are observed at the basin scale, determined by using the network of uniformly spaced hypothetical wells; the differences have a spatial pattern that generally is similar to spatial patterns in the underlying STATSGO data. Generally, the largest differences were observed for area-weighted nitrogen-application rate from county and national land-use data; the basin-scale differences ranged from -1,600 (indicating a larger value from within the volume-equivalent contributing recharge area) to 1,900 kilograms per year (kg/yr); the range in the underlying spatial data was from 0 to 2,200 kg/yr. Silt content, alfisol content, and nitrogen-application rate are defined by the underlying spatial data and are external to the groundwater system; however, depth to water is an environmental variable that can be estimated in more detail and, presumably, in a more physically based manner using a groundwater-flow model than using the spatial data. Model-calculated depths to water within circular buffers in the Great Miami River Basin differed substantially from values derived from the spatial data and had a much larger range. Differences in estimates of area-weighted spatial variables result in corresponding differences in predictions of nitrate occurrence in the aquifer. In addition to the factors affecting contributing recharge areas and estimated explanatory variables, differences in predictions also are a function of the specific set of explanatory variables used and the fitted slope coefficients in a given model. For models that predicted the probability of exceeding 1 and 4 milligrams per liter as nitrogen (mg/L as N), predicted probabilities using variables estimated from circular buffers and contributing recharge areas generally were correlated but differed significantly at the local and basin scale. The scale and distribution of prediction differences can be explained by the underlying differences in the estimated variables and the relative weight of the variables in the statistical models. Differences in predictions of exceeding 1 mg/L as N, which only includes environmental variables, generally correlated with the underlying differences in STATSGO data, whereas differences in exceeding 4 mg/L as N were more spatially extensive because that model included environmental and nitrogen-source variables. Using depths to water from within circular buffers derived from the spatial data and depths to water within the circular buffers calculated from the groundwater-flow model, restricted to the same range, resulted in large differences in predicted probabilities. The differences in estimated explanatory variables between contributing recharge areas and circular buffers indicate incorporation of physically based contributing recharge area likely would result in a different set of explanatory variables and an improved set of statistical models. The use of a groundwater-flow model to improve representations of source areas or to provide more-detailed estimates of specific explanatory variables includes a number of limitations and technical considerations. An assumption in these analyses is that (1) there is a state of mass balance between recharge and pumping, and (2) transport to a pumped well is under a steady state flow field. Comparison of volumeequivalent contributing recharge areas under steady-state and transient transport conditions at a location in the southeastern part of the basin shows the steady-state contributing recharge area is a reasonable approximation of the transient contributing recharge area after between 10 and 20 years of pumping. The first assumption is a more important consideration for this analysis. A gradient effect refers to a condition where simulated pumping from a well is less than recharge through the corresponding contributing recharge area. This generally takes place in areas with steep hydraulic gradients, such as near discharge locations, and can be mitigated using a finer model discretization. A boundary effect refers to a condition where recharge through the contributing recharge area is less than pumping. This indicates other sources of water to the simulated well and could reflect a real hydrologic process. In the Great Miami River Basin, large gradient and boundary effects—defined as the balance between pumping and recharge being less than half—occurred in 5 and 14 percent of the basin, respectively. The agreement between circular buffers and volume-equivalent contributing recharge areas, differences in estimated variables, and the effect on statisticalmodel predictions between the population of wells with a balance between pumping and recharge within 10 percent and the population of all wells were similar. This indicated process-model limitations did not affect the overall findings in the Great Miami River Basin; however, this would be model specific, and prudent use of a process model needs to entail a limitations analysis and, if necessary, alterations to the model.

Ohio↗

USGS2012

Altitude, age, and quality of groundwater, Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, eastern Nebraska, 1992 to 2009

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District (PMRNRD), conducted this study to map the water-level altitude of 2009 within the Elkhorn River Valley, Missouri River Valley, and Platte River Valley alluvial aquifers; to present the predevelopment potentiometric-surface altitude within the Dakota aquifer; and to describe the age and quality of groundwater in the five principal aquifers of the PMRNRD in eastern Nebraska using data collected from 1992 to 2009. In addition, implications of alternatives to the current PMRNRD groundwater-quality monitoring approach are discussed. In the PMRNRD, groundwater altitude, relative to National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, ranged from about 1,080 feet (ft) to 1,180 ft in the Elkhorn River Valley alluvial aquifer and from about 960 ft to 1,080 ft in the Missouri River Valley and Platte River Valley alluvial aquifers. In the PMRNRD, the estimated altitude of the potentiometric surface of the Dakota aquifer, predevelopment, ranged from about 1,100 ft to 1,200 ft. To assess groundwater age and quality, groundwater samples were collected from a total of 217 wells from 1992 to 2009 for analysis of various analytes. Groundwater samples collected in the PMRNRD from 1992 to 2009 and interpreted in this report were analyzed for age-dating analytes (chlorofluorocarbons), dissolved gases, major ions, trace elements, nutrients, stable isotope ratios, pesticides and pesticide degradates, volatile organic compounds, explosives, and 222radon. Apparent groundwater age was estimated from concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons measured in samples collected in 2000. Apparent groundwater-recharge dates ranged from older than 1940 in samples from wells screened in the Missouri River Valley alluvial aquifer to the early 1980s in samples from wells screened in the Dakota aquifer. Concentrations of major ions in the most recent sample per well collected from 1992 to 2009 indicate that the predominant water type was calcium bicarbonate. Samples from 4 wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Secondary Drinking Water Regulation (SDWR) for sulfate [250 milligrams per liter (mg/L)], and samples from 4 wells exceeded the USEPA Drinking Water Advisory Table for sodium (30-60 mg/L). Eighteen of the 21 trace elements analyzed in samples from PMRNRD wells have USEPA drinking-water standards. Sixteen of the trace elements with USEPA standards were detected in the selected samples. In the samples selected for trace-element analysis, the only trace-element concentration that exceeded an enforceable USEPA drinking-water standard, the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL), was for arsenic; arsenic concentration exceeded the USEPA MCL of 10 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in 4 percent of the samples. Trace-element concentrations that exceeded the USEPA SDWR or Lifetime Health Advisory level were iron (46 percent of the samples were greater than USEPA SDWR of 300 μg/L), manganese (70 percent of the samples were greater than USEPA SDWR of 50 μg/L), and strontium (4 percent of the samples were greater than USEPA Lifetime Health Advisory level of 4,000 μ/L). The concentration of nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen (nitrate-N) in the most recent nutrient samples collected from the network wells and from one randomly selected well in the well nests from 1992 to 2009 for most wells (80 percent) ranged from less than 0.06 to 8.55 mg/L, with a median value of 0.12 mg/L. Concentrations of nitrate-N in 13 (7 percent) nutrient samples, 1992 to 2009, were greater than or equal to the USEPA MCL and Nebraska Title-118 standard of 10 mg/L, and concentrations of nitrate-N in 35 (18 percent) nutrient samples, 1992 to 2009, were greater than or equal to 5 mg/L, which is the PMRNRD action level for possible management implementation to reduce nitrate concentrations in groundwater. Of the 61 pesticides or pesticide degradates analyzed from 2007 to 2009, 21 were detected. Three of the 21 pesticides detected (alachlor, atrazine, and metolachlor) have established health-based criteria; all detections of these compounds were at concentrations less than their USEPA standards. From 2007 to 2009, 1 or more pesticide compounds were detected in 16 of the 82 network wells and in 18 of the 26 wells in well nests. From 2007 to 2009, the individual pesticide compounds that were detected most frequently were alachlor ethane sulfonic acid, a degradate of alachlor; deethylcyanazine acid, a degradate of cyanazine; and atrazine. Analytes with concentrations that exceeded 30 percent of the applicable Nebraska Title-118 standard were identified so that the PMRNRD can plan to monitor groundwater in the area and consider possible actions should the analyte concentrations continue to rise. The analytical results from the most recent samples collected in the network wells and all the wells in well nests from 1992 to 2009 indicate that, in at least 1 sample, there was a concentration that exceeded 30 percent of the Nebraska Title-118 standard for at least 1 of 3 major ions (chloride, fluoride, and sulfate), 1 nutrient (nitrate-N), 1 pesticide (atrazine), or 3 trace elements (arsenic, iron, and manganese). In addition, 30 percent of the USEPA MCL or Nebraska Title-118 standard for gross alpha activity likely was exceeded in samples from three wells screened in the Dakota aquifer. Study findings indicate that some alternatives to the current PMRNRD groundwater-sampling approach that could be considered are to collect fewer samples for nutrient analysis and to collect samples periodically for determining concentrations of additional analytes, particularly the analytes with concentrations that were at least 30 percent or more than the Nebraska Title-118 standard.

Nebraska↗

USGS2015

Physical characteristics and fish assemblage composition at site and mesohabitat scales over a range of streamflows in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, winter 2011-12, summer 2012

In winter 2011–12 and summer 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Albuquerque District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service New Mexico Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office in Albuquerque, New Mexico, evaluated the physical characteristics and fish assemblage composition of available mesohabitats over a range of streamflows at 15 sites on the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico. The fish assemblage of the Middle Rio Grande includes several minnow species adapted to hydrologically variable but seasonably predictable rivers, including the Hybognathus amarus (Rio Grande silvery minnow), a federally listed endangered species. Gaining a better understanding of habitat usage by the Rio Grande silvery minnow was the impetus for studying physical characteristics and fish assemblages in the Middle Rio Grande during different streamflow conditions. Data were collected at all 15 sites during winter 2011–12 (moderate streamflow), and a subset was collected at the 13 most downstream sites in summer 2012 (low streamflow). Sites were grouped into four river reaches separated by diversion dams listed in downstream order (names of the diversion dams are followed by short names of the sites nearest each dam in parentheses, listed in downstream order): (1) Cochiti (Peña Blanca), (2) Angostura (Bernalillo, La Orilla, Barelas, Los Padillas), (3) Isleta (Los Lunas I, Los Lunas II, Abeytas, La Joya, Rio Salado), and (4) San Acacia (Lemitar, Arroyo del Tajo, San Pedro, Bosque del Apache I, and Bosque del Apache II). Stream habitat was mapped in the field by using a geographic information system in conjunction with a Global Positioning System. Fish assemblage composition was determined during both streamflow regimes, and fish were collected by seining in each mesohabitat where physical characteristic data (depth, velocity, dominant substrate type and size, and percent embeddedness) and water-quality properties (temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH; during summer 2012 only) were measured. Nineteen species of fish were collected among the 15 sites and four reaches over both sampling periods; 10 of these 19 species are introduced. Fish-species richness (total number of fish species collected at each site during each sampling event) among sites that were sampled during both sampling periods ranged from 6 at Rio Salado to 12 at La Orilla. Fish were most abundant at the Lemitar site (1,786 individuals) and least abundant at the San Pedro site (275 individuals). The native Cyprinella lutrensis (red shiner) was the most abundant species collected among all of the sites, accounting for about 42 percent of fish collected. Fish-species richness and catch per unit effort (CPUE) were higher (or equivalent) at all sites during summer 2012 compared to winter 2011–12. The relations between fish assemblage composition (that is, total abundance, which refers to the number of individuals of each species that were collected) and selected environmental variables (physical characteristic data collected at the mesohabitat scale [depth, velocity, and substrate particle size], and mesohabitat types) were explored by using canonical correspondence analysis. Environmental variables explained 8 percent (p=0.48) of the variability in the Middle Rio Grande fish assemblage during winter 2011–12, and Rio Grande silvery minnow were weakly associated with sand substrates, relatively moderate velocities (qualitative descriptors are derived from synthetic gradients extracted from CCAs), and relatively shallow depths. Environmental variables explained 14 percent (p < 0.01) of the variability in the Middle Rio Grande fish assemblage during summer 2012, when Rio Grande silvery minnow were associated with run mesohabitats, relatively high velocities, sand substrates, and relatively moderate depths. The mean fish-species richness was greater in summer 2012 than in winter 2011–12 for each mesohabitat type, and the overall fish-species richness across all mesohabitat types was 0.62 during winter 2011–12, compared to 1.49 during summer 2012. The highest mean CPUE during winter 2011–12 was in isolated pools (54.3 fish per 100 square meters [m 2 ]), whereas the lowest was in flats (18.9 fish per 100 m 2 ). Ranges in CPUE were higher in summer 2012 relative to winter 2011–12 in each mesohabitat type sampled. As in winter 2011–12, the highest mean CPUE during summer 2012 was in isolated pools (233 fish per 100 m 2 ), whereas the lowest was in flats (29.6 fish per 100 m 2 ). Overall mean CPUE per mesohabitat across all mesohabitat types was 29.1 fish per 100 m 2 during winter 2011–12 compared to 85.3 fish per 100 m 2 during summer 2012. Four species of minnows (red shiner, Rio Grande silvery minnow, Pimephales promelas [fathead minnow], and Platygobio gracilis [flathead chub]) were selected to compare preferred mesohabitat characteristics because all are small-bodied minnows and because more than 200 individuals of each of these species were collected. Red shiner were collected across the largest range of depths in both winter 2011–12 (0.02–4.31 feet [ft]) and summer 2012 (0.05–3.4 ft), as well as the largest range of velocities (0.0–4.31 feet per second [ft/s]) during winter 2011–12 among the four minnow species of interest. Rio Grande silvery minnow occurred in the narrowest range of depths (0.30–2.1 ft) during summer 2012, as well as the narrowest range of velocities in both winter 2011–12 (0.0–3.18 ft/s) and summer 2012 (0.02–1.51 ft/s). Water-quality properties were only collected during summer 2012, when low-streamflow conditions existed and water-quality properties were thought to be potentially most limiting to aquatic life. Area-weighted mean water temperatures tended to be higher at the sites that were sampled in August 2012 (25.57 degrees Celsius [°C]) compared to June 2012 (24.61 °C). The highest area-weighted mean water temperature at a given site (29.03 °C) was measured at the Lemitar site on August 7, 2012, coincident with the lowest measured discharge (4.13 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]). Area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentrations tended to be lower in August (7.46 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) compared to June (8.33 mg/L). The highest area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentration (9.13 mg/L) was measured at the Lemitar site on August 7, 2012, and the lowest area-weighted mean dissolved oxygen concentration (6.23 mg/L) was measured at the Los Padillas site on August 10, 2012. Area-weighted specific conductance in the sites upstream from La Joya did not exceed 400 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm) at 25 °C, whereas the area-weighted mean specific conductance at La Joya (837 μs/cm at 25 °C), Rio Salado (857 μs/cm at 25 °C), and Lemitar (1,300 μs/cm at 25 °C) were all well above the average of the area-weighted means for the 10 remaining sites (433 μs/cm at 25 °C). Lower area-weighted mean pH values were measured at the 3 sites in and near Albuquerque (La Orilla, Barelas, and Los Padillas—7.98, 8.08, and 7.81, respectively) compared to any of the 10 remaining sites, which had an overall mean pH of 8.44.

New Mexico↗

USGS2014

Mesohabitats, fish assemblage composition, and mesohabitat use of the Rio Grande silvery minnow over a range of seasonal flow regimes in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte, in and near Big Bend National Park, Texas, 2010-11

In 2010–11, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, evaluated the physical characteristics and fish assemblage composition of mapped river mesohabitats at four sites on the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte (hereinafter Rio Grande) in and near Big Bend National Park, Texas. The four sites used for the river habitat study were colocated with sites where the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has implemented an experimental reintroduction of the Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus), a federally listed endangered species, into part of the historical range of this species. The four sites from upstream to downstream are USGS station 08374340 Rio Grande at Contrabando Canyon near Lajitas, Tex. (hereinafter the Contrabando site), USGS station 290956103363600 Rio Grande at Santa Elena Canyon, Big Bend National Park, Tex. (hereinafter the Santa Elena site), USGS station 291046102573900 Rio Grande near Ranger Station at Rio Grande Village, Tex. (hereinafter the Rio Grande Village site), and USGS station 292354102491100 Rio Grande above Stillwell Crossing near Big Bend National Park, Tex. (hereinafter the Stillwell Crossing site). In-channel river habitat was mapped at the mesohabitat scale over a range of seasonal streamflows. A late summer (August–September 2010) high-flow regime, an early spring (April–May 2010) intermediate flow regime, and a late spring (May 2011) low-flow regime were the seasonal flows used in the study. River habitat was mapped in the field by using a geographic information system and a Global Positioning System unit to characterize the sites at the mesohabitat scale. Physical characteristics of a subset of mesohabitats in a reach of the Rio Grande at each site were measured during each flow regime and included depth, velocity, type and size of the substrate, and percent embeddedness. Selected water-quality properties (dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and temperature) of a subset of mesohabitats were also measured. The fish assemblage composition at the four sites was determined during the three flow regimes, and fish were collected by seining in each mesohabitat where physical characteristic data were measured, except during some periods of high flow when electrofishing was done to supplement seining. The total number and number of types of mesohabitats were larger during low flows compared to intermediate flows, and larger during intermediate flows compared to high flows. Decreases in streamflow typically led to increases in channel complexity in terms of the number of different types and total number of mesohabitats present. The total wetted area increased and the number of mesohabitat types generally decreased as streamflow increased. At all four sites, the smallest depths and velocities were generally measured during low flow and the largest depths and velocities at high flow. Specific conductance was relatively consistent between the Contrabando and Santa Elena sites, the two most upstream sites. Specific conductance decreased appreciably between the Santa Elena site and the Rio Grande Village, and decreased slightly between the Rio Grande Village site and the Stillwell Crossing site. Specific-conductance values within and among mesohabitat types at a given site were relatively consistent. The pH values measured within and among mesohabitat types also were relatively consistent at all four sites. Median dissolved oxygen concentrations were relatively consistent between the Contrabando and Santa Elena sites (8.34 and 8.54 milligrams per liter [mg/L], respectively) but decreased along the stretch of river between the Santa Elena and Rio Grande Village sites to 7.31 mg/L, possibly because of small dissolved oxygen concentrations associated with contributions from springs between the Santa Elena and Rio Grande Village sites. Dissolved oxygen concentrations increased substantially between the Rio Grande Village and Stillwell Crossing sites to 10.06 mg/L. Mesohabitat water temperatures were generally highest in mesohabitats commonly associated with shallow water depths and low velocities (forewaters, backwaters, and embayments). Of the 21 species of fish collected during the three flow regimes, red shiner ( Cyprinella lutrensis ) was the most abundant species overall, accounting for about 35 percent of all fish collected. Another minnow, the endemic Tamaulipas shiner ( Notropis braytoni ), was second in overall abundance. A nonnative species, the common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ), was the third most abundant species overall. No statistically significant differences in fish-species richness were found among the different mesohabitat types. Median fish-species richness and maximum fish-species richness values were larger, and fish-species richness was more variable in runs, pools, forewaters, and backwaters during low flow compared to the fish-species richness values calculated for intermediate and high flows. Fish density in backwater mesohabitats was significantly different from fish densities in run mesohabitats, but fish densities were not significantly different among the other mesohabitat types. Of the 39 Rio Grande silvery minnow individuals collected at the four study sites, 21 (more than half) were collected at the Santa Elena site, 12 at the Contrabando site, and 3 each at the Rio Grande Village and Stillwell Crossing sites. Rio Grande silvery minnow fish-species densities followed the same order as abundance of this species at the sites; fish-species densities ranged from 0.95 fish per 100 square meters (m 2 ) at the Santa Elena site to 0.11–0.47 fish per 100 m 2 at the other three sites. The Rio Grande silvery minnow was most common in pools and runs during low- and intermediate-flow regimes. This species was less commonly collected in backwaters, embayments, and rapids, and none were collected in forewaters or submerged channel bars. The Tamaulipas shiner has similar life-history characteristics compared to the Rio Grande silvery minnow, including similar feeding habits and habitat use. Tamaulipas shiner was most common in backwater, run, and riffle mesohabitats (in decreasing order) during low and intermediate flow and was less common in submerged channel bar, pool, forewater, rapid, and embayment mesohabitats (in decreasing order) during the same flows. The overall relative percent density (composite of all three flow regimes) of Rio Grande silvery minnow was largest in rapid and pool mesohabitats and for Tamaulipas shiner was largest in backwater mesohabitats. There were no statistically significant differences between the stream velocities associated with seine hauls of the Rio Grande silvery minnow and Tamaulipas shiner. Stream velocities associated with the seine hauls that included Rio Grande silvery minnow indicate that this species is predominantly found in low-velocity mesohabitats. Velocities associated with seine hauls that included the Tamaulipas shiner represented a much broader overall range of velocities than those associated with Rio Grande silvery minnow collections. No statistically significant differences were found between the depths for seine hauls that included Rio Grande silvery minnow or Tamaulipas shiner. The Rio Grande silvery minnow was more commonly collected in seine hauls from mesohabitats dominated by cobble substrates and less frequently collected in mesohabitats with substrates dominated by fine-sized silt and clay particles, gravels, and sands, in that order. In contrast, the Tamaulipas shiner was broadly distributed among mesohabitats characterized as having gravel, cobble, and silt and clay.

Texas↗

USGS2016

Groundwater and surface-water interaction, water quality, and processes affecting loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in Fountain Creek, near Pueblo, Colorado, 2012–2014

In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas River Basin Regional Resource Planning Group, initiated a study of groundwater and surface-water interaction, water quality, and loading of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium to Fountain Creek near Pueblo, Colorado, to improve understanding of sources and processes affecting loading of these constituents to streams in the Arkansas River Basin. Fourteen monitoring wells were installed in a series of three transects across Fountain Creek near Pueblo, and temporary streamgages were established at each transect to facilitate data collection for the study. Groundwater and surface-water interaction was characterized by using hydrogeologic mapping, groundwater and stream-surface levels, groundwater and stream temperatures, vertical hydraulic-head gradients and ratios of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the hyporheic zone, and streamflow mass-balance measurements. Water quality was characterized by collecting periodic samples from groundwater, surface water, and the hyporheic zone for analysis of dissolved solids, selenium, uranium, and other selected constituents and by evaluating the oxidation-reduction condition for each groundwater sample under different hydrologic conditions throughout the study period. Groundwater loads to Fountain Creek and in-stream loads were computed for the study area, and processes affecting loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium were evaluated on the basis of geology, geochemical conditions, land and water use, and evapoconcentration. During the study period, the groundwater-flow system generally contributed flow to Fountain Creek and its hyporheic zone (as a single system) except for the reach between the north and middle transects. However, the direction of flow between the stream, the hyporheic zone, and the near-stream aquifer was variable in response to streamflow and stage. During periods of low streamflow, Fountain Creek generally gained flow from groundwater. However, during periods of high streamflow, the hydraulic gradient between groundwater and the stream temporarily reversed, causing the stream to lose flow to groundwater. Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in groundwater generally had greater spatial variability than surface water or hyporheic-zone samples, and constituent concentrations in groundwater generally were greater than in surface water. Constituent concentrations in the hyporheic zone typically were similar to or intermediate between concentrations in groundwater and surface water. Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, uranium, and other constituents in groundwater samples collected from wells located on the east side of the north monitoring well transect were substantially greater than for other groundwater, surface-water, and hyporheic-zone samples. With one exception, groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect exhibited oxic to mixed (oxic-anoxic) conditions, whereas most other groundwater samples exhibited anoxic to suboxic conditions. Concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in surface water generally increased in a downstream direction along Fountain Creek from the north transect to the south transect and exhibited an inverse relation to streamflow with highest concentration occurring during periods of low streamflow and lowest concentrations occurring during periods of high streamflow. Groundwater loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium to Fountain Creek were small because of the small amount of groundwater flowing to the stream under typical low-streamflow conditions. In-stream loads of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in Fountain Creek varied by date, primarily in relation to streamflow at each transect and were much larger than computed constituent loads from groundwater. In-stream loads generally decreased with decreases in streamflow and increased as streamflow increased. In-stream loads of dissolved solids and selenium increased between the north and middle transects but generally decreased between the middle and south transects. By contrast, uranium loads generally decreased between the north and middle transects but increased between the middle and south transects. In-stream load differences between transects appear primarily to be related to differences in streamflow. However, because groundwater typically flows to Fountain Creek under low-flow conditions, and groundwater has greater concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium than surface water in Fountain Creek, increases in loads between transects likely are affected by inflow of groundwater to the stream, which can account for a substantial proportion of the in-stream load difference between transects. When loads decreased between transects, the primary cause likely was decreased streamflow as a result of losses to groundwater and flow through the hyporheic zone. However, localized groundwater inflow likely attenuated the magnitude by which the in-stream loads decreased. The combination of localized soluble geologic sources and oxic conditions likely is the primary reason for the occurrence of high concentrations of dissolved solids, selenium, and uranium in groundwater on the east side of the north monitoring well transect. To evaluate conditions potentially responsible for differences in water quality and redox conditions, physical characteristics such as depth to water, saturated thickness, screen depth below the water table, screen height above bedrock, and aquifer hydraulic conductivity were compared by using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Results indicated no significant difference between depth to water, screen height above bedrock, and hydraulic conductivity for groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect and groundwater samples from all other wells. However, saturated thickness and screen depth below the water table both were significantly smaller for groundwater samples collected from wells on the east side of the north transect than for groundwater samples from other wells, indicating that these characteristics might be related to the elevated constituent concentrations found at that location. Similarly, saturated thickness and screen depth below the water table were significantly smaller for groundwater samples under oxic or mixed (oxic-anoxic) conditions than for those under anoxic to suboxic conditions. The greater constituent concentrations at wells on the east side of the north transect also could, in part, be related to groundwater discharge from an unnamed alluvial drainage located directly upgradient from that location. Although the quantity and quality of water discharging from the drainage is not known, the drainage appears to collect water from a residential area located upgradient to the east of the wells, and groundwater could become concentrated in nitrate and other dissolved constituents before flowing through the drainage. High levels of nitrate, whether from anthropogenic or natural geologic sources, could promote more soluble forms of selenium and other constituents by affecting the redox condition of groundwater. Whether oxic conditions at wells on the east side of the north transect are the result of physical characteristics or of groundwater inflow from the alluvial drainage, the oxic conditions appear to cause increased dissolution of minerals from the shallow shale bedrock at that location. Because ratios of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes indicate evaporation likely has not had a substantial effect on groundwater, constituent concentrations at that location likely are not the result of evapoconcentration.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

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USGS2018

Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins Geohydrology and optimal water resources management—Developed using density dependent solute transport and optimization models

Groundwater has been a part of the city of Santa Barbara’s water-supply portfolio since the 1800s; however, since the 1960s, the majority of the city’s water has come from local surface water, and the remainder has come from groundwater, State Water Project, recycled water, increased water conservation, and as needed, seawater desalination. Although groundwater from the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins only accounts for a small percentage of the long-term supply, it is an important source of supplemental water during times of surface-water shortages. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, production wells extracted additional groundwater to compensate for drought related water-delivery shortfalls from other sources; in response, water levels declined substantially in the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins (below sea level in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin). In coastal basins that have groundwater extraction near shore, seawater intrusion is often a problem. Seawater intrusion in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin is thought to be more limited than in other coastal basins because of an offshore fault that acts as a partial barrier to groundwater flow. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, seawater intrusion was observed in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, as indicated by increased chloride concentrations at several monitoring wells that ranged from 200 ft to 1,300 ft from the ocean and as close as 2,900 ft to the nearest pumping well. This demonstrated that seawater can intrude into the Santa Barbara groundwater basin when groundwater levels fall below sea level near the coast. The city of Santa Barbara is interested in developing a better understanding of the sustainability of its groundwater supplies. In 2014, California adopted historic legislation to manage its groundwater: the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA requires the development and implementation of “Groundwater Sustainability Plans” in 127 priority groundwater basins; although Santa Barbara was not a designated priority basin, the city is taking steps to achieve sustainability. Sustainability was defined in the SGMA in terms of avoiding undesirable results: significant and unreasonable groundwater-level declines, reduction in groundwater storage, seawater intrusion, water-quality degradation, land subsidence, and surface-water depletion. In this project, a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the city of Santa Barbara, sustainable yield is defined as the volume of groundwater that can be pumped from storage without causing water-level drawdowns and the associated increases in seawater intrusion (as indicated by increases in measured chloride concentrations) at selected wells. In order to estimate the sustainability of Santa Barbara’s groundwater basins, a three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater-flow and solute-transport model (the Santa Barbara Flow and Transport Model, or SBFTM) was developed on the basis of an existing groundwater-flow model. To simulate seawater intrusion to the Santa Barbara Basin under various management strategies, the SBFTM uses the USGS code SEAWAT to simulate salinity transport and variable-density flow. The completed SBFTM was coupled with a management optimization tool, in this case a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, to determine optimal pumping strategies that maximize the sustainable yield and at the same time satisfy user-defined drawdown and chloride-concentration constraints. As part of this study, a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was developed to quantify the extent and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Santa Barbara and Foothill groundwater basins and to help define the discretization and hydraulic properties used in the SBFTM. The development of the hydrogeologic framework model required the collection and reconciliation of geologic and geophysical data from existing maps, reports, and databases, along with geologic and hydrologic data from recently drilled wells. These data were integrated into a three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model that defines the stratigraphy and geometry of the aquifer zones and the major geologic structures in the basin. The hydrogeologic framework model also quantifies the variation in sediment grain size within each aquifer zone as the percentage of coarse-grained sediment. Previous studies indicated that there are two principal water-producing zones in the Santa Barbara groundwater basin, the upper and lower producing zones; an additional thin, productive zone was identified as part of this study. This “middle producing zone” is not as areally extensive as the upper and lower producing zones and only exists in the coastal part of Storage Unit I. These producing zones are bounded at depth by less productive shallow, middle, and deep zones. Two versions of the SBFTM were constructed: an initial-condition model and a modern transient model. The initial-condition model is a long-term transient model that simulates flow and solute-transport conditions during a period with limited anthropogenic influences preceeding the modern transient model. The simulation-transient model simulates flow and transport conditions from 1929 through 2013; however, because of data availability, the focus of the model calibration was 1972–2013. The SBFTM was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and drawdown, as well as measured chloride concentrations and change in concentrations, using a combination of automated and trial-and-error parameter-estimation techniques. A sensitivity analysis indicated that, in general, the SBFTM was most sensitive to recharge- and pumping-distribution parameters, specifically those controlling the amount of small-catchment recharge and the distribution of water extraction by hydrogeologic layer for production wells. The model was also sensitive to parameters controlling stream-recharge rates, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, and porosity. From 1929 to 1971, most of the water entering the area represented by the SBFTM was from creek and small-catchment recharge, and the majority of water leaving the SBFTM area was from pumping, discharge to creeks, and drains. In addition, about 37 percent of the total pumpage came from a net reduction in groundwater storage. From 1972 to 2013, the amount of water entering and leaving the SBFTM was fairly similar as that from 1929 to 1971, except the reduction in pumpage added about 17,000 acre-ft of water to storage. During this later period, there were also times of storage loss. For example, during July 1990, a month when approximately 705 acre-ft of groundwater was pumped in the study area, the pumpage was much greater than all sources of recharge combined, and about 382 acre-ft of water was removed from groundwater storage. Simulated hydraulic heads replicated the observed data to an acceptable matching of the measured water-level, flow direction, and vertical gradients. Simulated hydrographs for selected wells were in good agreement with the measured data, with an average residual of -2.7 ft and a standard deviation of 14.5 ft, indicating that the simulated heads, on average, underestimated the observed water levels. An examination of the model fit indicated that most of the discrepancies were lower simulated heads at wells proximal to production well sites. The simulated chloride concentrations reasonably matched the rising limbs of the measured breakthrough curves in terms of timing and magnitude; however, the simulation overestimated the chloride concentrations on the falling limbs. The overestimation of low chloride concentrations was attributed to the model overestimating the advance of the chloride front during periods of heavy pumping and underestimating the retreat of the chloride front during periods of low pumping. These simulation errors would result in a conservative response by local water managers to seawater intrusion. The SBFTM was used to develop a collection of predictive simulations optimized to produce pumping schedules that maximize yield, subject to a set of constraints and competing objectives. The simulations were grouped as scenarios that differed in their time horizon, initial conditions for groundwater levels and chloride concentrations, as well as precipitation, which was incorporated into the model through simulated recharge. Overall, five scenarios were developed in a multi-objective framework to obtain optimal pumping rates for all of the wells managed by the city, while minimizing excessive drawdown and seawater intrusion. For the current study, complexities in the simulation model and the optimization formulation required additional considerations. Incorporating the solute-transport equations to simulate chloride transport added a highly nonlinear process that is solved iteratively in each time step of the groundwater-flow model. These nonlinearities, coupled with the highly refined grid in the current model, creates challenges for many traditional optimization methods. Therefore, an optimization method was needed that could address nonlinear relationships as well as a very large problem size. Lastly, the optimization problem was reformulated to include multiple objectives without requiring convergence to a single solution. This approach, guided by the city’s objectives, allowed the maximum extraction of information from the complex simulation. Borg, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, was chosen as the optimization algorithm for this study for several reasons: (1) it is very computationally efficient; (2) it can run in parallel; (3) it requires little user input; and (4) it can solve for multiple competing objectives. The first three points allow the algorithm to proceed toward the optimal solutions at the fastest possible rate. The fourth point is advantageous for large, complex optimization problems because it is difficult to formulate the optimization problem in a way that produces only one optimal solution. The problem formulation consisted of four competing objectives and a constraint set in accordance with the main concerns of the city. The objectives were maximizing total pumpage, minimizing seawater intrusion, minimizing total drawdown in production wells, and minimizing the maximum drawdown. The constraints were pump capacity, meeting drinking-water standards for chloride, maintaining a specified minimum flowrate to a groundwater treatment plant, and maintaining minimum water levels in pumping wells. The decision variables either were quarterly pumpage by well or total pumpage by basin. Five optimization scenarios were developed that allow the decision makers to evaluate a range of optimal solutions for a variety of water levels and chloride concentrations as well as potential future climatic conditions. Three scenarios (1, 2, and 5) were multi-objective optimization formulations that allowed for variations in management preferences and climatic conditions. The other two scenarios (3 and 4) were designed to examine the optimization results to answer specific questions. Scenario 1 described the best-case sustainable yield assuming a “full” basin (that is, high initial water levels) and typical climate conditions for 10 years. Scenario 2 also started with a “full” basin; however, this was followed by a 10-year drought. Scenario 3 determined if an “empty” basin (that is, low initial water levels) would recover to full conditions (1998 conditions) given climate assumptions and optimal pumping schedules from scenarios 1 and 2. Scenario 4 was designed to produce decision rules that can be used by water managers to help choose an optimal pumping schedule based on measured water-level or chloride data. Scenario 5 identified future pumping schedules based on short-term climate variations during a 2-year management horizon. The results from scenarios 1 and 2 described the differences in maximum pumpage in the basin under typical and dry long-term climate projections, respectively. The scenario 1 results indicated the maximum 10-year pumpage of the basin was about 31,300 acre-ft under typical conditions and controlling simulated seawater intrusion and drawdowns. For scenario 2, less recharge over the 10-year dry climate produced a maximum pumpage estimate of 30,000 acre-ft to control seawater intrusion and drawdowns. The larger pumpage for scenario 1 resulted in more seawater intrusion, but less total drawdown, compared to that of scenario 2. Results for scenarios 3 and 4 showed the basin’s response to management actions combined with climate projections. Both scenarios used the optimal pumping schedules and the 10-year climates from scenarios 1 and 2. The scenario 3 results showed that under minimal pumping, the basin did not fully recover to 1998 water levels within 10 years under either climate scenario. The relatively larger recharge from the typical climate resulted in less drawdown at coastal monitoring wells after the 10-year recovery period than that from the dry climate. The location of the seawater intrusion front was not appreciably different between the scenarios, however. Scenario 4 used the optimal results from scenarios 1 and 2 to produce decision-rule curves that illustrated the pumpage for each basin, given measured levels of chloride concentration or drawdown. This allowed the use of additional measurements at monitoring wells to assess future management decisions on the basis of the sensitivity of observations of drawdown and seawater intrusion to various pumping rates. Scenario 5 allowed managers to investigate the effects of short-term climate variations on optimal pumping schedules. Three specific 2-year simulations were optimized: typical-to-dry (scenario 5A), dry-to-typical (scenario 5B), and dry-to-dry (scenario 5C). The most noteable result from scenario 5 was the overall reduction in optimal pumpage for most schedules in scenario 5C, when the climate is simulated as dry-to-dry. There are also many optimal pumping schedules that produced an overall increase in waterlevels over the two-year simulation period, regardless of climatic condition. Similar to scenario 2, the scenario 5C results represents conservative yield estimates under a minimal-precipitation climatic condition.

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