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USGS2013

Enhancements to the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) groundwater-flow model and simulations of sustainable water-level scenarios

Arkansas continues to be one of the largest users of groundwater in the Nation. As such, long-term planning and management are essential to ensure continued availability of groundwater and surface water for years to come. The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study (MERAS) model was developed previously as a tool to evaluate groundwater availability within the Mississippi embayment, which encompasses much of eastern Arkansas where the majority of groundwater is used. The Arkansas Water Plan is being updated for the first time since 1990 and serves as the State’s primary, comprehensive water-resources planning and guidance document. The MERAS model was selected as the best available tool for evaluation of specific water-use pumping scenarios that are currently being considered by the State of Arkansas. The model, developed as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program’s assessment of the Nation’s groundwater availability, is proving to be invaluable to the State as it works toward development of a sustained yield pumping strategy. One aspect of this investigation was to evaluate multiple methods to improve the match of observed to simulated groundwater levels within the Mississippi River Valley alluvial and middle Claiborne (Sparta) aquifers in the MERAS model. Five primary methods were evaluated: (1) explicit simulation of evapotranspiration (ET), (2) upgrade of the Multi-Node Well (MNW2) Package, (3) geometry improvement within the Streamflow Routing (SFR) Package, (4) parameter estimation of select aquifer properties with pilot points, and (5) modification of water-use estimates. For the planning purposes of the Arkansas Water Plan, three scenarios were developed to evaluate potential future conditions: (1) simulation of previously optimized pumping values within the Mississippi River Valley alluvial and the middle Claiborne aquifers, (2) simulated prolonged effects of pumping at average recent (2000–5) rates, and (3) simulation of drawdown constraints on most pumping wells. The explicit simulation of ET indicated little, if any, improvement of model fit at the expense of much longer simulation time and was not included in further simulations. Numerous attempts to fully utilize the MNW2 Package were unsuccessful in achieving model stability, though modifications made to the water-use dataset remained intact. Final improvements in the residual statistics may be attributed to a single method, or a cumulative effect of all other methods (geometry improvement with the SFR Package, parameter estimation with pilot points, and modification of water-use estimates) attempted. The root mean squared error (RMSE) for all observations in the model is 22.65 feet (ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 741.66 ft. The RMSE for water-level observations in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer is 14.14 ft (an improvement of almost 3 ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 297.25 ft. The RMSE for the Sparta aquifer is 32.02 ft (an improvement of approximately 3 ft) over a range in observed hydraulic head of 634.94 ft. Three scenarios were developed to utilize a steady-state version of the MERAS model. Scenario 1 was developed to use pumping values resulting from the optimization of baseline rates (typically 1997 pumping rates) from previous optimization modeling of the alluvial aquifer and the Sparta aquifer. Scenario 2 was developed to evaluate the prolonged effects of pumping from the alluvial aquifer at recent pumping rates. Scenario 3A was designed to evaluate withdrawal limits from the alluvial aquifer by utilizing drawdown constraints equal to an altitude of approximately 50 percent of the predevelopment saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer or 30 ft above the bottom of the alluvial aquifer, whichever was greater. The results of scenario 1 indicate large water-level declines throughout the area of the alluvial aquifer, regardless of the substitution of the optimized pumping values from earlier model simulations. The results of scenario 2 also indicate large areas of water-level decline, as compared to half of the saturated thickness, throughout the alluvial aquifer. The results of scenario 3A reveal some effects from the inclusion of multiple aquifers in a single simulation. The initial configuration of scenario 3A resulted in water levels well below the defined drawdown constraint, and some areas of depleted aquifer (water levels that are near or below the bottom of the aquifer) in east-central Arkansas. A fourth simulation (scenario 3B) was configured to apply the same drawdown constraints from the alluvial aquifer wells to the Sparta aquifer wells in the depleted area. These drawdown constraints reduce leakage from the alluvial aquifer to the underlying Sparta aquifer. This configuration did not produce depleted areas within the alluvial aquifer. Scenarios 3A and 3B indicate that even when pumping is limited in the alluvial aquifer, water levels in the alluvial aquifer may continue to decline in some areas because of pumping in the underlying Sparta aquifer.

Arkansas↗
USGS2014

Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [ Juniperus ashei ]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios. The SWAT-WAM linkage for the upper Guadalupe River is documented with a principal objective to evaluate the distributional characteristics of the monthly water storage of Canyon Lake during selected drought conditions. Focus is on the relative evaluation of select scenarios of large-scale or “extensive” brush management within the upper Guadalupe River watershed. There are six SWAT simulations for the upper Guadalupe River watershed that include a baseline (0-percent management of treatable ashe juniper, the baseline scenario from a previous study in which no percentage of ashe juniper is numerically replaced with grassland) along with five scenarios (extensions of SWAT simulations from a previous study) of 20-, 40-, 60-, 80-, and 100-percent random (numerical) replacement of treatable ashe juniper with grasslands throughout the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas. SWAT is a process-based, semidistributed, water-balance model designed to predict the effects of landscape management decisions on water yields. A watershed is subdivided into subbasins, and each subbasin is associated with a single reach on the stream network. In general a WAM, such as the Guadalupe River WAM, provides analysis of generalized water rights in a river and reservoir framework. A WAM accommodates hydrology and water usage through several input files containing water rights, watershed parameters, and naturalized streamflow time series. A WAM is generalized for application to rivers and reservoir systems, and input datasets are uniquely developed for a river basin of concern. The extractions of SWAT output for the five extensive brush-management and baseline scenarios were offset by –21 years and, in general, the results were then mapped to the WAM input-flow file. The offset of –21 years was chosen arbitrarily for technical reasons and means that the period of monthly record 1995–2010 of the upper Guadalupe River SWAT became the synthetic period of monthly record 1974–89, hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period, of the Guadalupe River WAM. The relative (between scenario to baseline) effects of extensive brush-management scenarios by using the SWAT-WAM linkage were evaluated, and two critical intermediate results were total inflow to Canyon Lake from 1995 to 2010 and the monthly storage of Canyon Lake from 1974 to 1989 (synthetic). The first quartile or lower 25th percentile of monthly storage of Canyon Lake for the baseline scenario is 381,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) for the hereinafter 1974–89 (synthetic) period. This lower quartile was chosen for analysis for two critical purposes. First, Canyon Lake is managed with a conservation pool of about 386,200 acre-ft capacity (as recognized by the WAM) and is at or near conservation capacity about 50 percent or more of the time; further, there is intrinsic data censoring that occurs for the monthly storage distribution because Canyon Lake is at or near conservation pool elevation the majority of the time. This intrinsic censoring has the effect of creating a bounded distribution with a left or low-volume tail. Statistical assessment of the brush-management scenarios beginning with the 381,000 acre-ft censoring threshold provides readily interpretable results. Second, the quantification of brush management during periods lacking abundant rainfall, which were defined in this study as months for which Canyon Lake storage was below the 25th percentile for the simulation period, are of substantial interest to water-resource managers and stakeholders in the context of water-supply enhancement. A statistical assessment of the SWAT-WAM linkage for the low-volume tail of the distribution of monthly storage of Canyon Lake is the focus of analysis and interpretation. Drought periods for the analysis are defined as the months (consecutive or not) during which Canyon Lake is below the 25th percentile of storage (381,000 acre-ft) for the baseline scenario. Such months are referred to as being within the “Drought Quartile.” The Drought Quartile is a conceptual and heuristically determined waypoint for the analysis and is not related to any administrative definition of drought by stakeholders or policy makers. The five scenarios and the baseline scenario simulated in the upper Guadalupe River SWAT were all passed through the Guadalupe River WAM by the SWAT-WAM linkage described in this report. A comparison of the mean increase per month in reservoir storage for Canyon Lake conditioned for the Drought Quartile was made. For each of the five brush-management and baseline scenarios, the months with storage below 381,000 acre-ft were extracted. The mean monthly storages during the Drought Quartile were computed for each of the five scenarios and the baseline scenario. The mean of the baseline scenario was 376,458 acre-ft and subsequently was subtracted from the mean monthly storage during the Drought Quartile for each of the five scenarios. The mean monthly offset storages of Canyon Lake during the Drought Quartile were 110 acre-ft (20 percent); 448 acre-ft (40 percent); 754 acre-ft (60 percent); 1,080 acre-ft (80 percent); and 1,090 acre-ft (100 percent). A particular mean was interpreted as follows: the value of 754 acre-ft for the 60-percent brush-management scenario implies that, on average, this scenario indicates an additional 754 acre-ft per month of storage in Canyon Lake relative to the baseline during the Drought Quartile. All of the five scenarios resulted in an increase on average to water supply relative to the baseline scenario during the Drought Quartile through the SWAT-WAM linkage.

Texas↗
USGS2014

Simulation of natural flows in major river basins in Alabama

The Office of Water Resources (OWR) in the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) is charged with the assessment of the State’s water resources. This study developed a watershed model for the major river basins that are within Alabama or that cross Alabama’s borders, which serves as a planning tool for water-resource decisionmakers. The watershed model chosen to assess the natural amount of available water was the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Models were configured and calibrated for the following four river basins: Mobile, Gulf of Mexico, Middle Tennessee, and Chattahoochee. These models required calibrating unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations to estimate natural flows, with emphases on low-flow calibration. The target calibration criteria required the errors be within the range of: (1) ±10 percent for total-streamflow volume, (2) ±10 percent for low-flow volume, (3) ±15 percent for high-flow volume, (4) ±30 percent for summer volume, and (5) above 0.5 for the correlation coefficient (R 2 ). Seventy-one of the 90 calibration stations in the watershed models for the four major river basins within Alabama met the target calibration criteria. Variability in the model performance can be attributed to limitations in correctly representing certain hydrologic conditions that are characterized by some of the ecoregions in Alabama. Ecoregions consisting of predominantly clayey soils and (or) low topographic relief yield less successful calibration results, whereas ecoregions consisting of loamy and sandy soils and (or) high topographic relief yield more successful calibration results. Results indicate that the model does well in hilly regions with sandy soils because of rapid surface runoff and more direct interaction with subsurface flow.

Alabama↗
USGS2014

Water quality and algal community dynamics of three deepwater lakes in Minnesota utilizing CE-QUAL-W2 models

Water quality, habitat, and fish in Minnesota lakes will potentially be facing substantial levels of stress in the coming decades primarily because of two stressors: (1) land-use change (urban and agricultural) and (2) climate change. Several regional and statewide lake modeling studies have identified the potential linkages between land-use and climate change on reductions in the volume of suitable lake habitat for coldwater fish populations. In recent years, water-resource scientists have been making the case for focused assessments and monitoring of sentinel systems to address how these stress agents change lakes over the long term. Currently in Minnesota, a large-scale effort called “Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment” is underway that includes a focus on monitoring basic watershed, water quality, habitat, and fish indicators of 24 Minnesota sentinel lakes across a gradient of ecoregions, depths, and nutrient levels. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water quality models to assess water quality and habitat dynamics of three select deepwater lakes in Minnesota. The three lakes (Lake Carlos in Douglas County, Elk Lake in Clearwater County, and Trout Lake in Cook County) were assessed under recent (2010–11) meteorological conditions. The three selected lakes contain deep, coldwater habitats that remain viable during the summer months for coldwater fish species. Hydrodynamics and water-quality characteristics for each of the three lakes were simulated using the CE-QUAL-W2 model, which is a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model. The CE-QUAL-W2 models address the interaction between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics to predict responses in the distribution of temperature and oxygen in lakes. The CE-QUAL-W2 models for all three lakes successfully predicted water temperature, on the basis of the two metrics of absolute mean error and root mean square error, using measured inputs of water temperature and nutrients. One of the main calibration tools for CE-QUAL-W2 model development was the vertical profile temperature data, available for all three lakes. For all three lakes, the absolute mean error and root mean square error were less than 1.0 degree Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius, respectively, for the different depth ranges used for vertical profile comparisons. In Lake Carlos, simulated water temperatures compared better to measured water temperatures in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion. The reverse was true for the other two lakes, Elk Lake and Trout Lake, where the simulated results were slightly better for the hypolimnion than the epilimnion. The model also was used to approximate the location of the thermocline throughout the simulation periods, approximately April to November, in all three lake models. Deviations between the simulated and measured water temperatures in the vertical lake profile commonly were because of an offset in the timing of thermocline shifts rather than the simulated results missing thermocline shifts altogether.

Minnesota↗
USGS2014

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

Montana↗
USGS2014

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2015

Hydrogeology of the Ramapo River-Woodbury Creek valley-fill aquifer system and adjacent areas in eastern Orange County, New York

The hydrogeology of the valley-fill aquifer system and surrounding watershed areas was investigated within a 23-mile long, fault-controlled valley in eastern Orange County, New York. Glacial deposits form a divide within the valley that is drained to the north by Woodbury Creek and is drained to the south by the Ramapo River. Surficial geology, extent and saturated thickness of sand and gravel aquifers, extent of confining units, bedrock-surface elevation beneath valleys, major lineaments, and the locations of wells for which records are available were delineated on an interactive map. Currently (2013), groundwater is the primary source of water supply in the study area. Several public water-supply systems withdraw groundwater from production wells in valley areas; elsewhere, domestic wells are used for water supply. Community-supply wells tap both sand and gravel and fractured bedrock aquifers; most domestic wells tap fractured-bedrock aquifers. Thick, saturated sand and gravel deposits are limited in areal extent but form several localized, productive aquifer zones within the valley-fill sediments. Hydraulic interconnection among these zones is largely untested. Fine-grained lacustrine deposits form extensive confining units above some aquifer material. Till deposits that extend into valleys also confine sand and gravel or bedrock aquifers. The study area was divided into three sections—south, central, and north. The south section of the study area, from Harriman south to the Rockland County and New Jersey borders, includes the south-draining valleys of the Ramapo River and Summit Brook. South of the wide valley area at Harriman, the valleys are narrow and the valley-fill aquifers are largely untested; the most favorable aquifer conditions are likely at Arden and where major tributary streams enter the valley, between Southfields and We-Wah Lake. At Harriman, the Ramapo River valley fill has water-resource potential from ice-contact sand and gravel deposits. The central section of the study area encompasses the headwater drainage area of the Ramapo River, from Harriman to Monroe and Kiryas Joel. The valley-fill aquifer material is generally thin, mostly unconfined, and underlain by glacial till. Shallow production wells tap parts of this aquifer, and appear most productive when sited near surface-water bodies. Production wells in the section are frequently completed in the underlying bedrock. The north section of the study area encompasses the watershed of north-draining Woodbury Creek to just north of its confluence with Moodna Creek. The width of the valley bottom and type of valley-fill deposits vary considerably within the valley. The section likely has the greatest water-resource potential—both confined and unconfined aquifers are present and the village of Woodbury and town of Cornwall draw water supply from production wells. Aquifer potential appears most promising north of Central Valley, but several areas in this section are largely untested. Valley-fill aquifers are modest resources within the area, as indicated by the common practice of completing supply wells in the underlying bedrock rather than the overlying glacial deposits. Groundwater turbidity problems curtail use of the resource. However, additional groundwater resources have been identified by test drilling, and there are remaining untested areas. New groundwater supplies that stress localized aquifer areas will alter the groundwater flow system. Considerations include potential water-quality degradation from nearby land use(s) and, where withdrawals induce infiltration of surface-water, balancing withdrawals with flow requirements for downstream users or for maintenance of stream ecological health.

New York↗
USGS2014

Stream-water and groundwater quality in and near the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area, Pottawatomie County, Oklahoma, 2012-13

The Citizen Potawatomi Nation needs to characterize their existing surface-water and groundwater resources in and near their tribal jurisdictional area to complete a water-resource management plan. Water resources in this area include surface water from the North Canadian and Little Rivers and groundwater from the terrace and alluvial aquifers and underlying bedrock aquifers. To assist in this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, collected water-quality samples at 4 sites on 3 streams and from 30 wells during 2012 and 2013 in and near the Citizen Potawatomi Nation Tribal Jurisdictional Area in central Oklahoma. Stream samples were collected eight times on the North Canadian River at the upstream USGS streamflow-gaging station North Canadian River near Harrah, Okla. (07241550); at the downstream USGS streamflow-gaging station North Canadian River at Shawnee, Okla. (07241800); and on the Little River at the USGS streamflow-gaging station Little River near Tecumseh, Okla., (07230500). Stream samples also were collected three times at an ungaged site, Deer Creek near McLoud, Okla. (07241590). Water properties were measured, and water samples were analyzed for concentrations of major ions, nutrients, trace elements, counts of fecal-indicator bacteria, and 69 organic compounds. The highest concentrations of dissolved solids and chlorides were measured in stream-water samples collected at the Little River near Tecumseh station. The Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL) for dissolved solids in drinking water of 500 milligrams per liter (mg/L) was exceeded in 7 of 8 stream-water samples, with a median concentration of 844 mg/L at that station. The 250-mg/L SMCL for chloride was exceeded in 5 of the 8 stream-water samples collected at that station. Median concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen were about an order of magnitude higher in stream-water samples collected at the two stations on the North Canadian River than concentrations in stream-water samples collected at the Little River near Tecumseh station and the Deer Creek site. Median concentrations of total dissolved nitrogen were 4.36 and 2.89 mg/L in stream-water samples collected at the two North Canadian River stations, 0.35 mg/L in stream-water samples collected at the Little River near Tecumseh station, and 0.76 mg/L in stream-water samples collected at the Deer Creek site. Similar to nitrogen, median concentrations of total dissolved phosphorus were higher by about two orders of magnitude in stream-water samples collected at the two stations on the North Canadian River than concentrations in stream-water samples collected at the Little River near Tecumseh station and the Deer Creek site. Median concentrations of total dissolved phosphorus were 1.05 and 0.805 mg/L in stream-water samples collected at the two North Canadian River stations, 0.007 mg/L in stream-water samples collected at the Little River near Tecumseh station, and 0.032 mg/L from the Deer Creek site. Dissolved concentrations of total nitrogen, nitrate-nitrogen, orthophosphorus, and total phosphorus were highest in stream-water samples collected at the two North Canadian River stations at low streamflows, indicating that wastewater effluent may have been a notable source of these nutrients. Concentrations of most trace elements increased with increasing streamflow in stream-water samples collected at the two North Canadian River stations, indicating that most trace elements are washed into the river by runoff from the land surface or resuspended from streambed sediments. In general, most trace-element concentrations were below respective Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for public drinking-water supplies, except for one stream-water sample with an arsenic concentration of 10.1 micrograms per liter (µg/L) collected from the North Canadian River and one stream-water sample with a barium concentration of 2,690 µg/L collected from the Little River. At least one stream-water sample from each of the four stream sites sampled in this study contained a lead concentration exceeding the SMCL of 15 µg/L. All of these samples were collected during high streamflows. A greater number of organic compounds were detected in stream-water samples collected at the two stations on the North Canadian River than in stream-water samples collected at the Tecumseh station and Deer Creek site. In the 8 stream-water samples collected at the upstream Harrah station, 213 detections of organic compounds were measured, whereas in 8 samples collected at the downstream Shawnee station, 203 detections of organic compounds were measured. In contrast, 59 detections of organic compounds were measured in the 8 stream-water samples collected at the Tecumseh station, and 25 detections of organic compounds were measured in the 3 stream-water samples collected at the Deer Creek site; however, the 8 detections of 7 organic compounds in the 2 equipment-blank samples is problematic for evaluating these data, especially for the Deer Creek and Little River samples because of the comparatively low detection frequency and should be taken into consideration when evaluating these results. Groundwater samples also were collected once from 30 wells producing water from the Garber-Wellington aquifer; Admire, Chase, and Council Grove Groups; the Vanoss Formation; and the terrace and alluvial aquifers along the North Canadian River. Water properties were measured, and samples were analyzed for concentrations of major ions, nutrients, trace elements, and selected radionuclides in groundwater. Of 30 wells sampled for this study, 26 were completed in bedrock aquifers, and 4 were completed in terrace and alluvial aquifers. In general, groundwater in the study area is very hard, with a median concentration of 180 mg/L as calcium carbonate in water samples collected from the 30 wells. Concentrations of sulfate exceeded the 250-mg/L SMCL in two groundwater samples, and dissolved solids concentrations exceeded the 500-mg/L SMCL in nine groundwater samples. Trace-element concentrations did not exceed respective MCLs in the 30 groundwater samples collected for this study. Concentrations of the radionuclide uranium ranged from 0.03 to 79.5 µg/L, with a median concentration of 1.9 µg/L in the 30 groundwater samples collected. Two of the groundwater samples collected for this study had uranium concentrations exceeding the MCL of 30 µg/L, with concentrations of 79.5 and 31.1 µg/L. Generally, uranium concentrations were highest in water samples collected from wells completed in the Wellington Formation and the Chase, Council Grove, and Admire Groups in the southern and eastern parts of the study area.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2014

Measurement of unsaturated hydraulic properties and evaluation of property-transfer models for deep sedimentary interbeds, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

Operations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have the potential to contaminate the underlying Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer. Methods to quantitatively characterize unsaturated flow and recharge to the ESRP aquifer are needed to inform water-resources management decisions at INL. In particular, hydraulic properties are needed to parameterize distributed hydrologic models of unsaturated flow and transport at INL, but these properties are often difficult and costly to obtain for large areas. The unsaturated zone overlying the ESRP aquifer consists of alternating sequences of thick fractured volcanic rocks that can rapidly transmit water flow and thinner sedimentary interbeds that transmit water much more slowly. Consequently, the sedimentary interbeds are of considerable interest because they primarily restrict the vertical movement of water through the unsaturated zone. Previous efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have included extensive laboratory characterization of the sedimentary interbeds and regression analyses to develop property-transfer models, which relate readily available physical properties of the sedimentary interbeds (bulk density, median particle diameter, and uniformity coefficient) to water retention and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curves. During 2013–14, the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, focused on further characterization of the sedimentary interbeds below the future site of the proposed Remote Handled Low-Level Waste (RHLLW) facility, which is intended for the long-term storage of low-level radioactive waste. Twelve core samples from the sedimentary interbeds from a borehole near the proposed facility were collected for laboratory analysis of hydraulic properties, which also allowed further testing of the property-transfer modeling approach. For each core sample, the steady-state centrifuge method was used to measure relations between matric potential, saturation, and conductivity. These laboratory measurements were compared to water-retention and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity parameters estimated using the established property-transfer models. For each core sample obtained, the agreement between measured and estimated hydraulic parameters was evaluated quantitatively using the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). The highest correlation is for saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ) with an r value of 0.922. The saturated water content (q sat ) also exhibits a strong linear correlation with an r value of 0.892. The curve shape parameter (λ) has a value of 0.731, whereas the curve scaling parameter (y o ) has the lowest r value of 0.528. The r values demonstrate that model predictions correspond well to the laboratory measured properties for most parameters, which supports the value of extending this approach for quantifying unsaturated hydraulic properties at various sites throughout INL.

Idaho↗
USGS2014

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the South Fork Nooksack River Basin, northwestern Washington

A hydrogeologic framework of the South Fork (SF) Nooksack River Basin in northwestern Washington was developed and hydrologic data were collected to characterize the groundwater-flow system and its interaction with surface‑water features. In addition to domestic, agricultural, and commercial uses of groundwater within the SF Nooksack River Basin, groundwater has the potential to provide ecological benefits by maintaining late-summer streamflows and buffering stream temperatures. Cold-water refugia, created and maintained in part by groundwater, have been identified by water-resource managers as key elements to restore the health and viability of threatened salmonids in the SF Nooksack River. The SF Nooksack River drains a 183-square mile area of the North Cascades and the Puget Lowland underlain by unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments deposited over older sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous bedrock. The primary aquifer that interacts with the SF Nooksack River was mapped within unconsolidated glacial outwash and alluvial sediment. The lower extent of this unit is bounded by bedrock and fine-grained, poorly sorted unconsolidated glaciomarine and glaciolacustrine sediments. In places, these deposits overlie and confine an aquifer within older glacial sediments. The extent and thickness of the hydrogeologic units were assembled from mapped geologic units and lithostratigraphic logs of field-inventoried wells. Generalized groundwater-flow directions within the surficial aquifer were interpreted from groundwater levels measured in August 2012; and groundwater seepage gains and losses to the SF Nooksack River were calculated from synoptic streamflow measurements made in the SF Nooksack River and its tributaries in September 2012. A subset of the field-inventoried wells was measured at a monthly interval to determine seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels during water year 2013. Taken together, these data provide the foundation for a future groundwater-flow model of the SF Nooksack River Basin that may be used to investigate the potential effects of future climate change, land use, and groundwater pumping on water resources in the study area. Site-specific hydrologic data, including time series of longitudinal temperature profiles measured with a fiber-optic distributed temperature sensor and continuous monitoring of stream stage and water levels measured in wells in adjacent wetlands and aquifers, also were measured to characterize the interaction among the SF Nooksack River, surficial aquifers, and riparian wetlands.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Montana StreamStats—A method for retrieving basin and streamflow characteristics in Montana: Chapter A in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.

Montana↗
USGS2015

Hydrogeology of Valley-Fill Aquifers and Adjacent Areas in Eastern Chemung County, New York

The extent, hydrogeologic framework, and potential well yields of valley-fill aquifers within a 151-square-mile area of eastern Chemung County, New York, were investigated, and the upland distribution of till thickness over bedrock was characterized. The hydrogeologic framework of these valleyfill aquifers was interpreted from multiple sources of surficial and subsurface data and an interpretation of the origin of the glacial deposits, particularly during retreat of glacial ice from the region. Potential yields of screened wells are based on the hydrogeologic framework interpretation and existing well-yield data, most of which are from wells finished with open-ended well casing. Water-resource potential is greatest within saturated sand and gravel in the Chemung River valley (nearly 1 mile wide), especially where induced infiltration of additional water from the Chemung River is possible. The second most favorable area is the Newtown Creek valley at the confluence of Newtown Creek with North Branch Newtown Creek east of Horseheads, N.Y. Extensive sand and gravel deposits within the Breesport, N.Y., area are largely unsaturated but may have greater saturation along the east side of Jackson Creek immediately north of Breesport. Till deposits confine sand and gravel along Newtown Creek at Erin, N.Y., and along much of the upper reach of North Branch Newtown Creek; this confining unit may limit recharge and potential well yield. The north-south oriented valleys of Baldwin and Wynkoop Creeks end at notched divides that imply input of glacial meltwater and limited sediment from outside of the present watersheds. These two valleys are relatively narrow but contain variably sorted sand and gravel, which, in places, may be capable of supplying modest-size community water systems.

New York↗
USGS2015

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey auto-calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The accuracy of Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model streamflow estimates of nine river basins in eastern Iowa as compared to measured values at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations varied. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa were satisfactory at estimating daily streamflow at 57 of the 79 calibration sites and 13 of the 14 validation sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance can be contributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) the availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa↗
USGS2016

Hydrologic data and groundwater-flow simulations in the Brown Ditch Watershed, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected data and simulated groundwater flow to increase understanding of the hydrology and the effects of drainage alterations on the water table in the vicinity of Great Marsh, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana. Prior land-management practices have modified drainage and caused changes in the distribution of open water, streams and ditches, and groundwater abundance and flow paths. Collected hydrologic data indicate that the majority of water entering Great Marsh flows from the southern dune ridge beneath Town of Pines, Indiana. Groundwater flow is intercepted by Brown Ditch in the eastern portion of the study area and Derby Ditch in the western portion of the study area. A smaller amount of groundwater from the northern dune ridge beneath Beverly Shores also contributed water to Great Marsh. Continuous groundwater-level data collected indicate that the predominant north-south groundwater-flow gradients vary during the course of the year due to increased levels of precipitation or during periods of drainage obstructions. Continuous surface-water discharge and surface-water elevation were measured at three USGS streamgages, one each on Brown, Kintzele and Derby Ditches. The monthly mean discharge statistics indicate that during the period of record— June 2012 to September 2013—streamflow in Kintzele Ditch was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. In Derby Ditch, streamflow also was lowest during July 2012 and highest during April 2013. Periods of relatively high and low groundwater levels during August 1982, March 2013, and April 2014 were examined and simulated by using MODFLOW and companion software. Results from the simulation of conditions during March 2013 include that nearly 100 percent of all water entering the area simulating Town of Pines is from recharge. Of all the water simulated to enter the eastern and western portions of Great Marsh, nearly 20 and 18 percent, respectively, flows from Town of Pines to the western and eastern portions of Great Marsh. The dune ridges beneath Town of Pines and to a lesser extent beneath Beverly Shores are a major source of recharge to the surficial aquifer and Great Marsh. Results from the simulation of the conditions of April 2014 include that, despite increases in the amount of water entering Great Marsh due to a beaver-dam-modified hydrologic condition, there is still virtually zero simulated groundwater flow from Great Marsh to Town of Pines. The volume of water simulated to be entering the zone representing Beverly Shores decreased by 0.43 cubic foot per second from the results of the March 2013 simulation. This simulated difference in water budgets can be attributed to increased simulated recharge in Great Marsh and Town of Pines. Effects of the inclusion of the beaver dam included the increase of the simulated water table and simulated inundated area upstream of the beaver dam due to the effects of ponding surface water. Results from the simulation scenario that includes six proposed pool-riffle control structures in Brown Ditch under the hydrologic conditions of March 2013 indicate areas inundated by water are larger, including areas just to the north of the entrance of Brown Ditch into Great Marsh, and areas north of the confluence of Brown and Kintzele Ditches. Results from the scenario simulating the increase of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical high of May 31, 1998, showed inundated areas of Great Marsh south of Beverly Shores enlarged on both sides of Lakeshore County Road with the greatest enlargement simulated to be southeast of the intersection of Lakeshore County Road and Beverly Drive. For the scenario simulating the decrease of the Lake Michigan water level to the historical low of December 23, 2007, results show little change from the original March 2013 inundated area. The results of this study can be used by water-resource managers to understand how surrounding ditches affect water levels in Great Marsh and other inland wetlands and residential areas. The groundwater model developed can be applied to answer questions about how alterations to the drainage system in the area affects water levels in the public and residential areas surrounding Great Marsh. The modeling methods developed in this study provide a template for other studies of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the shallow surficial aquifer in northern Indiana, and in similar hydrologic settings that include surficial sand aquifers in coastal areas.

Indiana↗
USGS2016

Water quality and hydrology of Silver Lake, Oceana County, Michigan, with emphasis on lake response to nutrient loading

Executive Summary Silver Lake is a 672-acre inland lake located in Oceana County, Michigan, and is a major tourist destination due to its proximity to Lake Michigan and the surrounding outdoor recreational opportunities. In recent years, Silver Lake exhibited patterns of high phosphorus concentrations, elevated chlorophyll a concentrations, and nuisance algal blooms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Silver Lake Improvement Board and in collaboration with the Annis Water Resources Institute (AWRI) of Grand Valley State University, designed a study to assess the hydrologic and nutrient inputs to Silver Lake in order to identify the events and conditions that affect the nutrient chemistry and production of algal blooms in the lake. This information can inform water-resource managers in developing various management strategies to prevent or reduce the occurrence of future algal blooms. USGS and AWRI scientists collected data from November 2012 to December 2014 to provide information for future management decisions for Silver Lake. Silver Lake can be classified as a polymictic lake and has a residence time of approximately 223 days. Based on the mean lake Secchi depth, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen concentrations, Silver Lake is classified as a eutrophic lake. In-situ bioassay results indicate that algal growth in Silver Lake is colimited by both nitrogen and phosphorus. The nutrient budget for Silver Lake was calculated using the BATHTUB model based on 2 years of water-quality data collection. The BATHTUB model, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, treats the lake as a well-mixed system with multiple inputs and outlets for both water and dissolved constituents, such as nutrients. Based on results of the BATHTUB model, which were conditioned on observed concentrations and flows, the mean annual input of phosphorus to Silver Lake was approximately 1,342 pounds (lb); the mean annual input of nitrogen to Silver Lake was approximately 51,998 lb. The major measured sources of phosphorus loading to Silver Lake were groundwater and Hunter Creek, whereas the major measured sources of nitrogen to Silver Lake were Hunter Creek, groundwater, and atmospheric deposition. The largest loading of phosphorus and nitrogen to Silver Lake occurred during the spring. Minimal phosphorus deposition (if any) occurred in the lakebed sediment; however, of the nitrogen that entered Silver Lake, approximately 42.2 percent was deposited in the lakebed sediment as simulated by the BATHTUB model. In addition to measured sources, a septic load model was used to estimate the likely range of septic contribution to groundwater and adjacent surface waters. The likely septic loading scenario estimates that septic systems contribute 47.8 percent of the phosphorus to groundwater and 22.3 percent of phosphorus to Hunter Creek. These results indicate that septic systems are a major source of phosphorus loading to Silver Lake. The likely septic loading scenario indicated that septic systems account for 0.95 percent of the nitrogen load to Hunter Creek and 1.1 percent of the contribution of nitrogen to groundwater. The BATHTUB model was used to estimate future nutrient loading and eutrophication scenarios based on water-quality data collected from Silver Lake, groundwater, major tributaries, and atmospheric deposition. A separate septic load model was used to estimate the septic contribution to groundwater or directly to surface water, and the nutrient load estimates were modeled using the BATHTUB model to determine subsequent water-quality changes to Silver Lake. BATHTUB model scenarios based on measured data: The first BATHTUB scenario evaluated the condition of Silver Lake and the change to lake water quality (trophic status) as a result of changes in nutrient loading from different sources. Based on BATHTUB model simulations, if groundwater loading of phosphorus and nitrogen only were decreased by 75 percent, and all of the other nutrient inputs stayed the same, the future condition of Silver Lake would most likely remain highly mesotrophic to eutrophic (the current [2014] condition of Silver Lake). If nutrient loading continued to increase in groundwater, the lake would continue to remain eutrophic with more frequent algal blooms. If nutrient loading from Hunter Creek only decreased by 50–75 percent, and all of the other nutrient inputs stayed the same as the baseline dataset, Silver Lake would remain eutrophic to highly mesotrophic. By reducing the input of manageable nutrient sources (Hunter Creek, groundwater, and lawn runoff) by 75 percent, the BATHTUB model simulation indicates that Silver Lake would be classified as mesotrophic, which is indicative of improved water quality, water clarity, and reduced algal bloom frequency. Simulations also were run using the BATHTUB model to evaluate the number of days Silver Lake could experience algal blooms (algal blooms are defined as modeled chlorophyll a in excess of 10 micrograms per liter [µg/L]) as a result of an increase/decrease in phosphorus and nitrogen loading from groundwater, Hunter Creek, and (or) a combination of sources. If the phosphorus and nitrogen loading from Hunter Creek is decreased (and all other sources are not altered), Silver Lake will continue to experience algal blooms, but less frequently than what is currently experienced. The same scenario holds true if the nutrient loading from groundwater is decreased. Another scenario was simulated using a combination of sources, which includes increases and decreases in phosphorus and nitrogen loading from sources that are the most likely to be managed, and includes groundwater (as a result of conversion of household septic to sewers), Hunter Creek (conversion of household septic to sewers), and lawn runoff. Results of the BATHTUB model indicated that a 50-percent reduction of phosphorus and nitrogen from these sources would result in a considerable decrease in algal bloom frequency (from 231 to 132 days) and severity, and a 75-percent reduction would greatly reduce algal bloom occurrence on Silver Lake (from 231 to 57 days). BATHTUB model scenarios based on septic load model: A scenario also was conducted using the BATHTUB model to simulate the conversion of septic to sewer and included a low, high, and medium (likely) scenario of nutrient loading to Silver Lake. Simulations of the BATHTUB model indicated that, under the likely scenario, the conversion of all onsite septic treatment to sewers would result in an overall change in lake trophic status from eutrophic to mesotrophic, thereby reducing the frequency of algal blooms and algal bloom intensity on Silver Lake (chlorophyll a >10 µg/L, from 231 to 184 days per year, or chlorophyll a >20 µg/L, from 80 to 49 days per year).

Michigan↗
USGS2016

Water use in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, 2010, and water-use trends, 1985-2010

The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin encompasses about 20,230 square miles in parts of Alabama, Florida, and Georgia. Increasing population growth and agricultural production from the 1970s to 2010 has prompted increases in water-resources development and substantially increased water demand in the basin. Since the 1980s, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are parties to litigation concerning water management in the ACF River Basin. Estimating the 2010 water use in the ACF River Basin is one aspect of a multipart water resources study on the ACF River Basin that began in 2011. This ACF River Basin study is one focus area of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Census program. The 2010 water-use estimates for the ACF River Basin are presented in this report. These estimates include an inventory of the quantity and sources of water withdrawn by category of use and location (State and river basin), and the surface-water returns in the ACF River Basin during 2010. Water-use trends from 1985 to 2010 in the basin also are presented. Offstream water-withdrawal data in the ACF River Basin are presented for each of the following categories: public supply, self-supplied domestic, self-supplied commercial, industrial, mining, agricultural (including crop irrigation, livestock, and aquaculture uses), and thermoelectric-power generation. Water-use data are compiled for the 14 subbasins in the ACF River Basin. For the counties in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia that are partially within the ACF River Basin, data are presented for only that part of the county that lies within the basin. A variety of Federal, State, local, private, and online sources in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia were used to gather surface-water and groundwater withdrawal, surface-water discharges (return flows), and water-use data for the ACF River Basin in 2010. The population in the ACF River Basin was 3.835 million in 2010, a 45-percent increase from the 1990 population of nearly 2.636 million. About 92 percent of the 2010 ACF population resided in Georgia with nearly 75 percent living in the Atlanta metropolitan area. In 2010, 1,645 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn from groundwater (576 Mgal/d) and surface-water (1,069 Mgal/d) sources in the ACF River Basin. About 89 percent of the groundwater and 83 percent of the surface-water withdrawals were from Georgia. About 5.6 percent of the total groundwater and nearly 4 percent of the total surface-water withdrawals in the ACF River Basin were from Florida, whereas about 5.3 percent of groundwater and nearly 16 percent of surface water were withdrawn in Alabama. Total water use (withdrawals plus public-supplied deliveries) in the ACF River Basin was 1,593 Mgal/d in 2010. About 56 Mgal/d of water withdrawn in the ACF River Basin was delivered (interbasin transfer) to basins beyond the ACF River Basin. About 564 Mgal/d of water was returned to surface-water bodies in the ACF River Basin. Most of that amount, 63 percent, was treated wastewater discharged by public wastewater-treatment facilities. Water used for once-through cooling by thermoelectric-power facilities accounted for nearly 24 percent of the surface-water returns in the basin. About 70 percent of all water withdrawals in the ACF River Basin were by self-supplied agricultural water users and public water suppliers. Agricultural withdrawals were greatest in the Flint River Basin (501 Mgal/d) with ground-water representing 84 percent of the withdrawals from that basin. Within the Flint River Basin, agricultural withdrawals were greatest in the Lower Flint River and Spring Creek subbasins. About 3.52 million people were served by public water suppliers in the ACF River Basin during 2010, and 88 percent of that population used surface water. Georgia had the largest public-supplied population, representing nearly 93 percent (3.17 million) of the public-supplied population in the ACF River Basin. Public water suppliers served 193,700 people (5.7 percent) in Alabama and 31,880 people in Florida (1.3 percent). Public-supply losses were estimated at 101 Mgal/d. Withdrawals for public supply (483 Mgal/d) and self-supplied industry (141 Mgal/d) were greatest in the Chattahoochee River Basin. Surface water accounted for 96 percent of all withdrawals in the Chattahoochee River Basin. Withdrawals for public supply were greatest in the Upper Chattahoochee River subbasin (366 Mgal/d), whereas self-supplied industrial withdrawals were greatest in the Lower Chattahoochee River subbasin (110 Mgal/d). Water-use trends in the ACF River Basin have varied during the 25 years between 1985 and 2010. Surface-water withdrawals declined between 1985 and 2000, sharply increased in 2000, and declined again between 2000 and 2010. In contrast, groundwater withdrawals increased between 1985 and 2000, declined in 2005, and increased between 2005 and 2010.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2016

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis. For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R 2 ) ranged from 85 to 91 percent. The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web-based geographic information system application that facilitates retrieval of streamflow statistics and associated information. StreamStats retrieves published data for gaged sites and, for user-selected ungaged sites, delineates drainage areas from topographic and hydrographic data, computes basin characteristics, and computes flood frequency estimates using the regional regression equations.

Alaska↗