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Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper↗

Historical patterns of acidification and increasing CO2 flux associated with Florida springs

Florida has one of the highest concentrations of springs in the world, with many discharging into rivers and predominantly into eastern Gulf of Mexico coast, and they likely influence the hydrochemistry of these adjacent waters; however, temporal and spatial trends have not been well studied. We present over 20 yr of hydrochemical, seasonally sampled data to identify temporal and spatial trends of pH, alkalinity, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO 2 ), and CO 2 flux from five first-order-magnitude (springs that discharge greater than 2.83 m 3 s −1 ) coastal spring groups fed by the Floridan Aquifer System that ultimately discharge into the Gulf of Mexico. All spring groups had pCO 2 levels (averages 3174.3–6773.2 μatm) that were much higher than atmospheric levels of CO 2 and demonstrated statistically significant temporal decreases in pH and increases in CO 2 flux, pCO 2 , and alkalinity. Total carbon flux emissions increased from each of the spring groups by between 3.48 × 10 7 and 2.856 × 10 8 kg C yr −1 over the time period. By 2013 the Springs Groups in total emitted more than 1.1739 × 10 9 kg C yr −1 . Increases in alkalinity and pCO 2 varied from 90.9 to 347.6 μmol kg −1 and 1262.3 to 2666.7 μatm, respectively. Coastal data show higher CO 2 evasion than the open Gulf of Mexico, which suggests spring water influences nearshore waters. The results of this study have important implications for spring water quality, dissolution of the Florida carbonate platform, and identification of the effect and partitioning of carbon fluxes to and within coastal and marine ecosystems.

Florida↗

Marine fog inputs appear to increase methylmercury bioaccumulation in a coastal terrestrial food web

Coastal marine atmospheric fog has recently been implicated as a potential source of ocean-derived monomethylmercury (MMHg) to coastal terrestrial ecosystems through the process of sea-to-land advection of foggy air masses followed by wet deposition. This study examined whether pumas ( Puma concolor ) in coastal central California, USA, and their associated food web, have elevated concentrations of MMHg, which could be indicative of their habitat being in a region that is regularly inundated with marine fog. We found that adult puma fur and fur-normalized whiskers in our marine fog-influenced study region had a mean (±SE) total Hg (THg) (a convenient surrogate for MMHg) concentration of 1544 ± 151 ng g −1 (N = 94), which was three times higher ( P < 0.01) than mean THg in comparable samples from inland areas of California (492 ± 119 ng g −1 , N = 18). Pumas in California eat primarily black-tailed and/or mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and THg in deer fur from the two regions was also significantly different (coastal 28.1 ± 2.9, N = 55, vs. inland 15.5 ± 1.5 ng g −1 , N = 40). We suggest that atmospheric deposition of MMHg through fog may be contributing to this pattern, as we also observed significantly higher MMHg concentrations in lace lichen ( Ramalina menziesii ), a deer food and a bioindicator of atmospheric deposition, at sites with the highest fog frequencies. At these ocean-facing sites, deer samples had significantly higher THg concentrations compared to those from more inland bay-facing sites. Our results suggest that fog-borne MMHg, while likely a small fraction of Hg in all atmospheric deposition, may contribute, disproportionately, to the bioaccumulation of Hg to levels that approach toxicological thresholds in at least one apex predator. As global mercury levels increase, coastal food webs may be at risk to the toxicological effects of increased methylmercury burdens.

California↗

Occurrence of endocrine active compounds and biological responses in the Mississippi River— Study design and data, June through August 2006

Concern that selected chemicals in the environment may act as endocrine active compounds in aquatic ecosystems is widespread; however, few studies have examined the occurrence of endocrine active compounds and identified biological markers of endocrine disruption such as intersex occurrence in fish longitudinally in a river system. This report presents environmental data collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and St. Cloud State University as part of an integrated biological and chemical study of endocrine disruption in fish in the Mississippi River. Data were collected from water, bed sediment, and fish at 43 sites along the river from the headwaters at Lake Itasca to 14 miles downstream from Brownsville, Minnesota during June through August 2006. Twenty-four individual compounds were detected in water samples, with cholesterol, atrazine, N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide, metolachlor, and hexahydrohexamethylcyclopentabenzopyran detected most frequently (in at least 10 percent of the samples). The number of compounds detected in water per site ranged from 0 to 8. Forty individual compounds were detected in bed-sediment samples. The most commonly detected compounds (in at least 50 percent of the samples) were indole, beta-sitosterol, cholesterol, beta-stigmastanol, 3-methyl-1H-indole, p-cresol, pyrene, phenol, fluoranthene, 3-beta coprostanol, benzo[a]pyrene, acetophenone, and 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene. The total number of detections in bed sediment (at a site) ranged from 3 to 31. The compounds NP1EO, NP2EO, and 4-nonylphenol were detected in greater than 10 percent of the samples. Most (80 percent) female fish collected had measurable concentrations of vitellogenin. Vitellogenin also was detected in 62, 63, and 33 percent of male carp, smallmouth bass, and redhorse, respectively. The one male walleye sample plasma sample analyzed had a vitellogenin detection. Vitellogenin concentrations were lower in male fish (not detected to 10.80 micrograms per milliliter) than female fish (0.04 to 248,079 micrograms per milliliter). Gonadosomatic Index values ranged from 0.02 to 7.49 percent among all male fish and were greater for male carp than for the other three species. No intersex (oocytes present in testes tissue) was found in any male fish sampled.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Preliminary geologic framework developed for a proposed environmental monitoring study of a deep, unconventional Marcellus Shale drill site, Washington County, Pennsylvania

Background In the fall of 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was afforded an opportunity to participate in an environmental monitoring study of the potential impacts of a deep, unconventional Marcellus Shale hydraulic fracturing site. The drill site of the prospective case study is the “Range Resources MCC Partners L.P. Units 1-5H” location (also referred to as the “RR–MCC” drill site), located in Washington County, southwestern Pennsylvania. Specifically, the USGS was approached to provide a geologic framework that would (1) provide geologic parameters for the proposed area of a localized groundwater circulation model, and (2) provide potential information for the siting of both shallow and deep groundwater monitoring wells located near the drill pad and the deviated drill legs. The lead organization of the prospective case study of the RR–MCC drill site was the Groundwater and Ecosystems Restoration Division (GWERD) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Aside from the USGS, additional partners/participants were to include the Department of Energy, the Pennsylvania Geological Survey, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, and the developer Range Resources LLC. During the initial cooperative phase, GWERD, with input from the participating agencies, drafted a Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) that proposed much of the objectives, tasks, sampling and analytical procedures, and documentation of results. Later in 2012, the proposed cooperative agreement between the aforementioned partners and the associated land owners for a monitoring program at the drill site was not executed. Therefore, the prospective case study of the RR–MCC site was terminated and no installation of groundwater monitoring wells nor the collection of nearby soil, stream sediment, and surface-water samples were made. Prior to the completion of the QAPP and termination of the perspective case study the geologic framework was rapidly conducted and nearly completed. This was done for three principal reasons. First, there was an immediate need to know the distribution of the relatively undisturbed surface to near-surface bedrock geology and unconsolidated materials for the collection of baseline surface data prior to drill site development (drill pad access road, drill pad leveling) and later during monitoring associated with well drilling, well development, and well production. Second, it was necessary to know the bedrock geology to support the siting of: (1) multiple shallow groundwater monitoring wells (possibly as many as four) surrounding and located immediately adjacent to the drill pad, and (2) deep groundwater monitoring wells (possibly two) located at distance from the drill pad with one possibly being sited along one of the deviated production drill legs. Lastly, the framework geology would provide the lateral extent, thickness, lithology, and expected discontinuities of geologic units (to be parsed or grouped as hydrostratigraphic units) and regional structure trends as inputs into the groundwater model. This report provides the methodology of geologic data accumulation and aggregation, and its integration into a geographic information system (GIS) based program. The GIS program will allow multiple data to be exported in various formats (shapefiles [.shp], database files [.dbf], and Keyhole Markup Language files [.KML]) for use in surface and subsurface geologic site characterization, for sampling strategies, and for inputs for groundwater modeling.

Pennsylvania↗

Biogeography and ecology of Ostracoda in the U.S. northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas

Ostracoda (bivalved Crustacea) comprise a significant part of the benthic meiofauna in the Pacific-Arctic region, including more than 50 species, many with identifiable ecological tolerances. These species hold potential as useful indicators of past and future ecosystem changes. In this study, we examined benthic ostracodes from nearly 300 surface sediment samples, >34,000 specimens, from three regions—the northern Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas—to establish species’ ecology and distribution. Samples were collected during various sampling programs from 1970 through 2018 on the continental shelves at 20 to ~100m water depth. Ordination analyses using species’ relative frequencies identified six species, Normanicythere leioderma , Sarsicytheridea bradii , Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata , Semicytherura complanata , Schizocythere ikeyai , and Munseyella mananensis , as having diagnostic habitat ranges in bottom water temperatures, salinities, sediment substrates and/or food sources. Species relative abundances and distributions can be used to infer past bottom environmental conditions in sediment archives for paleo-reconstructions and to characterize potential changes in Pacific-Arctic ecosystems in future sampling studies. Statistical analyses further showed ostracode assemblages grouped by the summer water masses influencing the area. Offshore-to-nearshore transects of samples across different water masses showed that complex water mass characteristics, such as bottom temperature, productivity, as well as sediment texture, influenced the relative frequencies of ostracode species over small spatial scales. On the larger biogeographic scale, synoptic ordination analyses showed dominant species— N . leioderma (Bering Sea), P . pseudopunctillata (offshore Chukchi and Beaufort Seas), and S . bradii (all regions)—remained fairly constant over recent decades. However, during 2013–2018, northern Pacific species M . mananensis and S . ikeyai increased in abundance by small but significant proportions in the Chukchi Sea region compared to earlier years. It is yet unclear if these assemblage changes signify a meiofaunal response to changing water mass properties and if this trend will continue in the future. Our new ecological data on ostracode species and biogeography suggest these hypotheses can be tested with future benthic monitoring efforts.

PLoS ONE↗

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO 3 − -N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman ρ = 0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r = 0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction ( r 2 = 0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Scaling up watershed model parameters--Flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin

The Edisto River is the longest and largest river system completely contained in South Carolina and is one of the longest free flowing blackwater rivers in the United States. The Edisto River basin also has fish-tissue mercury concentrations that are some of the highest recorded in the United States. As part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River basin were made with the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). The potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River basin, was assessed. Scaling up was done in a step-wise process beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic wetness index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made with subsequent simulations culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the two models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the significant difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variables in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD-H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek basin were used in the water-quality load models.

South Carolina↗

Small atoll fresh groundwater lenses respond to a combination of natural climatic cycles and human modified geology

Freshwater lenses underlying small ocean islands exhibit spatial variability and temporal fluctuations in volume, influencing ecologic management. For example, The Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge harbors one of the few surviving native stands of Pisonia grandis in the central Pacific Ocean, yet these trees face pressure from groundwater salinization, with little basic groundwater data to guide decision making. Adding to natural complexity, the geology of Palmyra was heavily altered by dredge and fill activities. Our study based at this atoll combines geophysical and hydrological field measurements from 2008 to 2019 with groundwater modeling to study the drivers of observed freshwater lens dynamics. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) field data were collected on the main atoll islands over repeat transects in 2008 following ‘strong’ La Niña conditions (wet) and in 2016 during ‘very strong’ El Niño conditions (dry). Shallow monitoring wells were installed adjacent to the geophysical transects in 2013 and screened within the fresh/saline groundwater transition zone. Temporal EMI and monitoring well data showed a strong contraction of the freshwater lens in response to El Niño conditions, and indicated a thicker lens toward the ocean side, an opposite spatial pattern to that observed for many other Pacific islands. On an outer islet where a stand of mature Pisonia trees exist, EMI surveys revealed only a thin (<3 m from land surface) layer of brackish groundwater during El Niño. Numerical groundwater simulations were performed for a range of permeability distributions and climate conditions at Palmyra. Results revealed that the observed atypical lens asymmetry is likely due to more efficient submarine groundwater discharge on the lagoon side as a result of lagoon dredging and filling with high-permeability material. Simulations also predict large decreases (40%) in freshwater lens volume during dry cycles and highlight threats to the Pisonia trees, yielding insight for atoll ecosystem management worldwide.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Measuring and evaluating ecological flows from streams to regions: Steps towards national coverage

Living aquatic communities are largely determined and maintained by the volume and quality of flowing waters, both within lotic systems and in receiving waters of coastal systems. However, flow is one of the most frequently and extensively altered features of rivers and streams; alteration effects are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Lotic systems vary and different fish species need different environmental conditions, and distinct problems are evident at various spatial scales. New synoptic flow and biological information now make it possible to evaluate the effects of altered flows throughout the Great Lakes Region at scales from the stream reach to the Region. We used estimates of river and streamflow and observed fish abundances to develop tools that specify the response of fish to alterations in those flows. We fit the logistic model to a cumulative fish abundance curve as a function of yield providing an empirical means to develop models of the response of cumulative fish abundance to flows. Response zones of yield for each species in each system type (based on size and thermal class) illustrate how criteria may be developed that can be used in decision‐making for management of flows. In our example application, we evaluate both the general response of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) abundances (and fish diversity) to changes in flows and assess the sensitivity of each stream fish community to flow alteration. Mapping stream sensitivity to flow alteration throughout the US Great Lakes Region with a multiscale spatial framework showed how regional variability in sensitivity for any fish species or assemblage may be evaluated and provides managers with information to help determine where the best opportunities for protection or restoration of streamflows and associated communities exist. These results provide valuable tools and critical information to managers responsible for balancing water uses and maintaining high quality lotic ecosystems. These methods may be applied to any geographic region and can be extended nationally or globally, where flow, temperature, fish and landscape data are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Big Bend National Park, Texas

Big Bend National Park (BBNP), Tex., covers 801,163 acres (3,242 km 2 ) and was established in 1944 through a transfer of land from the State of Texas to the United States. The park is located along a 118-mile (190-km) stretch of the Rio Grande at the United States-Mexico border. The park is in the Chihuahuan Desert, an ecosystem with high mountain ranges and basin environments containing a wide variety of native plants and animals, including more than 1,200 species of plants, more than 450 species of birds, 56 species of reptiles, and 75 species of mammals. In addition, the geology of BBNP, which varies widely from high mountains to broad open lowland basins, also enhances the beauty of the park. For example, the park contains the Chisos Mountains, which are dominantly composed of thick outcrops of Tertiary extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks that reach an altitude of 7,832 ft (2,387 m) and are considered the southernmost mountain range in the United States. Geologic features in BBNP provide opportunities to study the formation of mineral deposits and their environmental effects; the origin and formation of sedimentary and igneous rocks; Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Cenozoic fossils; and surface and ground water resources. Mineral deposits in and around BBNP contain commodities such as mercury (Hg), uranium (U), and fluorine (F), but of these, the only significant mining has been for Hg. Because of the biological and geological diversity of BBNP, more than 350,000 tourists visit the park each year. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been investigating a number of broad and diverse geologic, geochemical, and geophysical topics in BBNP to provide fundamental information needed by the National Park Service (NPS) to address resource management goals in this park. Scientists from the USGS Mineral Resources and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Programs have been working cooperatively with the NPS and several universities on several research studies within BBNP. Because the last geologic map of the entire BBNP was published in the 1960s, one of the primary goals of the USGS is to provide a new geologic map of BBNP at a scale 1:100,000; this work is ongoing among the USGS, NPS, the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology, and university scientists. This USGS Circular summarizes eight studies funded and primarily carried out by the USGS, but it is not intended to be a comprehensive reference of work conducted in BBNP. This Circular describes topical research of the recently completed interdisciplinary USGS project, which has provided information leading to a more complete understanding of the following topics in BBNP: Tectonic and geologic history (Chapters 1, 2, and 3), Age and formation processes of a skarn mineral deposit (Chapter 4), Geoenvironmental effects of abandoned mercury mines (Chapter 5), Age, source, and geochemistry of surface and subsurface water resources (Chapter 6), Isotopic tracing of food sources of bears (Chapter 7), and Geophysical characteristics of surface and subsurface geology (Chapter 8). Additional information and the geochemical and geophysical data of the USGS studies in BBNP are available on line at http://minerals.cr.usgs.gov/projects/big_bend/index.html.

Texas↗

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book↗

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting that incorporating biological knowledge into pseudo-absence point generation is a powerful tool for species habitat assessments. Furthermore, given some a priori knowledge of the species-habitat relationship, ecologically based pseudo-absence points can be applied to any species, ecosystem, data resolution, and spatial extent. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

Sensitivity of benthic biota and toxicity of cadmium, cobalt, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc mixtures in Washington, United States, and British Columbia, Canada

Relative sensitivities and responses of juvenile white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), Hyalella azteca , two families of mayfly (Ephemerellidae, Heptageniidae), one family of caddisfly (Brachycentridae), and a natural community of benthic macroinvertebrates (BMI) to multiple metals are predicted using previously collected laboratory and field samples and a metal mixture model. Biological responses in single metal exposures are used to parameterize toxicity functions, which include accumulations of hydrogen and selected metals on biological receptors, intrinsic potencies of hydrogen and metals, sensitivities of organisms, and times of exposure. The model then is used to predict responses in multiple metal laboratory exposures and field-collected porewater. The following sensitivity sequence in porewater was determined based on endpoints of survival or total abundance: juvenile white sturgeon greater than (>) Ephemerellidae family > Hyalella azteca > Heptageniidae family about equal to (~) benthic macroinvertebrate community > Brachycentridae family. The fraction of porewater samples that are predicted to have adverse impacts on benthic biota (20-percent or greater negative response) depends on organism sensitivities and metal toxicities, and ranges from 44 to 48 percent for juvenile white sturgeon, 23 to 26 percent for the Ephemerellidae family, 16 to 22 percent for Hyalella azteca , 5 to 8 percent for the Heptageniidae family and BMI community, and 0 percent for the caddisfly family. The most toxic porewater in the upper Columbia River Basin (UCR) is at the backwater bar site at Deadmans Eddy and China Bend. The model also indicates that the element responsible for the most toxic conditions in UCR porewater is copper for all organisms, except Hyalella azteca and the metal-insensitive Brachycentridae family. Copper and lead result in the most toxic conditions for Hyalella azteca . This approach and results can aid in assessing metal toxicity and its potential risk to aquatic biota in ecosystems impacted by historical mining activities.

British Columbia, Washington↗

Characterization of winter foraging locations of Adélie penguins along the Western Antarctic Peninsula, 2001–2002

In accord with the hypotheses driving the Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (SO GLOBEC) program, we tested the hypothesis that the winter foraging ecology of a major top predator in waters off the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), the Ad&eacute;lie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ), is constrained by oceanographic features related to the physiography of the region. This hypothesis grew from the supposition that breeding colonies in the WAP during summer are located adjacent to areas of complex bathymetry where circulation and upwelling processes appear to ensure predictable food resources. Therefore, we tested the additional hypothesis that these areas continue to contribute to the foraging strategy of this species throughout the non-breeding winter season. We used satellite telemetry data collected as part of the SO GLOBEC program during the austral winters of 2001 and 2002 to characterize individual penguin foraging locations in relation to bathymetry, sea ice variability within the pack ice, and wind velocity and divergence (as a proxy for potential areas with cracks and leads). We also explored differences between males and females in core foraging area overlap. Ocean depth was the most influential variable in the determination of foraging location, with most birds focusing their effort on shallow (<200 m) waters near land and on mixed-layer (200&ndash;500 m) waters near the edge of deep troughs. Within-ice variability and wind (as a proxy for potential areas with cracks and leads) were not found to be influential variables, which is likely because of the low resolution satellite imagery and model outputs that were available. Throughout the study period, all individuals maintained a core foraging area separated from other individuals with very little overlap. However, from a year with light sea ice to one with heavy ice cover (2001&ndash;2002), we observed an increase in the overlap of individual female foraging areas with those of other birds, likely due to restricted access to the water column, reduced prey abundance, or higher prey concentration. Male birds maintained separate core foraging areas with the same small amount of overlap, showing no difference in overlap between the years. While complex bathymetry was an important physical variable influencing the Ad&eacute;lie penguin's foraging, the analysis of sea ice data of a higher resolution than was available for this study may help elucidate the role of sea ice in affecting Ad&eacute;lie penguin winter foraging behavior within the pack ice.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois↗

Ecological assessment of wadeable streams on O`ahu, Hawai'i, 2006-2007: A pilot study

In 2006–07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Islands Water Science Center (PIWSC), in cooperation with the Hawai‘i Department of Health (HDOH), conducted a pilot study as a participant in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA) Wadeable Streams Assessment (WSA) program. Forty randomly selected sites on perennial streams on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, were surveyed for habitat characteristics, water chemistry, and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. Of the original sampling frame of approximately 505.2 miles of perennial stream, roughly 96.7±30.7 miles were found to be nonperennial or estuarine and another 200.5±64.7 miles were judged to be inaccessible. The scope of this report presents an assessment of the remaining 208±57.6 miles of accessible, wadeable, perennial stream length on O‘ahu. Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were used to determine the ecological condition at each site. Components of the benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages were assessed using the multimetric Preliminary–Hawaiian Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity (P–HBIBI) developed by Wolff (2005). Based on the P–HBIBI scores, an estimated 5.8±5.8 percent of the island’s total stream length is in most disturbed condition, 56±13.5 percent is in intermediately disturbed condition, and 38.2±13.2 percent is in least disturbed condition. Windward O‘ahu had the highest percentage of stream length in least disturbed biological condition at 56.7±20.8 percent. Using the relative abundance of insects, one of the core metrics that make up the P–HBIBI, 43.4±14.2 percent of the islandwide stream length was classified in the most disturbed condition—52±31.2 percent of the Honolulu region stream length and 51.4±23.3 percent of the windward O‘ahu stream length. An analysis of total nitrogen (N) estimated approximately 41.1±13.7 percent of the stream length on O‘ahu was in most disturbed condition. Regionally, the Honolulu region had the largest proportion, 61.3±28.6 percent, of most disturbed stream length in terms of total N. An analysis of total phosphorus (P) classified approximately 43.2±14 percent of the stream length on O‘ahu as most disturbed. Regionally, windward O‘ahu had the largest proportion, 78.4±19.5 percent, of stream length classified as most disturbed. An analysis of embeddedness classified 30.3±14.7 percent of O‘ahu’s stream length as most. Regionally, windward O‘ahu had the largest proportion, 43.3±17.1 percent, of stream length classified as most disturbed as compared to the reference condition. An analysis of riparian disturbance, an index of the in-channel, riparian, and near-stream human activities, classified 43±13 percent of stream length on O‘ahu as most disturbed. The Honolulu region had the largest proportion of stream length, 86.3±13.7 percent, classified as most disturbed. The information in this report is the first attempt in Hawai‘i to assess the islandwide ecological condition of wadeable, perennial streams on O‘ahu using the USEPA WSA probabilistic design. This study has demonstrated that such an assessment is practical and that it can provide information that may help the USEPA and HDOH in determining the status of aquatic ecosystems on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i. This study provides a baseline assessment of the current islandwide ecological condition and identifies potential environmental stressors. It can be used, with future WSA studies in Hawai‘i, to measure the changes in those conditions and the effectiveness of management efforts to protect, restore, and maintain Hawai‘i’s aquatic environment.

Hawaii↗

Water

Ensuring a reliable supply of clean freshwater to individuals, communities, and ecosystems , together with effective management of floods and droughts, is the foundation of human and ecological health. The water sector is also central to the economy and contributes significantly to the resilience of many other sectors, including agriculture, energy, urban environments, and industry. Water systems face considerable risk , even without anticipated future climate changes. Limited surface water storage, as well as a limited ability to make use of long-term drought forecasts and to trade water across uses and basins, has led to a significant depletion of aquifers in many regions in the United States. Across the Nation, much of the critical water and wastewater infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life. To date, no comprehensive assessment exists of the climate-related vulnerability of U.S. water infrastructure (including dams, levees, aqueducts, sewers, and water and wastewater distribution and treatment systems), the potential resulting damages, or the cost of reconstruction and recovery. Paleoclimate information (reconstructions of past climate derived from ice cores or tree rings) shows that over the last 500 years, North America has experienced pronounced wet/dry regime shifts that sometimes persisted for decades. Because such protracted exposures to extreme floods or droughts in different parts of the country are extraordinary compared to events experienced in the 20th century, they are not yet incorporated in water management principles and practice. Anticipated future climate change will exacerbate this risk in many regions. A central challenge to water planning and management is learning to plan for plausible future climate conditions that are wider in range than those experienced in the 20th century. Doing so requires approaches that evaluate plans over many possible futures instead of just one, incorporate real-time monitoring and forecast products to better manage extremes when they occur, and update policies and engineering principles with the best available geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. While this represents a break from historical practice, recent examples of adaptation responses undertaken by large water management agencies, including major metropolitan water utilities and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are promising.

Report↗