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At least 1,621 records · Page 90Linked to original sources

Slip triggered on southern California faults by the 1992 Joshua Tree, Landers, and big bear earthquakes

Five out of six functioning creepmeters on southern California faults recorded slip triggered at the time of some or all of the three largest events of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence. Digital creep data indicate that dextral slip was triggered within 1 min of each mainshock and that maximum slip velocities occurred 2 to 3 min later. The duration of triggered slip events ranged from a few hours to several weeks. We note that triggered slip occurs commonly on faults that exhibit fault creep. To account for the observation that slip can be triggered repeatedly on a fault, we propose that the amplitude of triggered slip may be proportional to the depth of slip in the creep event and to the available near-surface tectonic strain that would otherwise eventually be released as fault creep. We advance the notion that seismic surface waves, perhaps amplified by sediments, generate transient local conditions that favor the release of tectonic strain to varying depths. Synthetic strain seismograms are presented that suggest increased pore pressure during periods of fault-normal contraction may be responsible for triggered slip, since maximum dextral shear strain transients correspond to times of maximum fault-normal contraction.

California↗

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo 78.2–89.2 ; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo 89 cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo 80 are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

Hawaii↗

Leg 188 synthesis: Transitions in the glacial history of the Prydz Bay region, East Antarctica, from ODP drilling

Drilling during Leg 119 (1988) and Leg 188 (2000; Sites 1165–1167) of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) provides direct evidence for long- and short-term changes in Cenozoic paleoenvironments in the Prydz Bay region. Cores from across the continental margin reveal that in preglacial times the present shelf was an alluvial plain system with austral conifer woodland in the Late Cretaceous that changed to cooler Nothofagus rainforest scrub by the middle to late Eocene (Site 1166). Earliest recovered evidence of nearby mountain glaciation is seen in late Eocene–age grain textures in fluvial sands. In the late Eocene to early Oligocene, Prydz Bay permanently shifted from being a fluvio-deltaic complex to an exclusively marine continental shelf environment. This transition is marked by a marine flooding surface later covered by overcompacted glacial sediments that denote the first advance of the ice sheet onto the shelf. Cores do not exist for the early Oligocene to early Miocene, and seismic data are used to infer the transition from a shallow to normal depth prograding continental shelf with submarine canyons on the slope and channel/levees on the rise. Cores from the continental rise at Site 1165 show long-term (millions of years) early Miocene and younger decreases in sedimentation rates as well as short-term (Milankovitch periods) cyclicity between principally biogenic and terrigenous sediment supply—resulting from the cyclic presence of onshore glaciers and changes in ocean circulation. Middle Miocene transitions include rapid decreases in sedimentation rates, increased ice-rafted debris, shifts in clays and other minerals, and regional erosion of the slope and rise. These transitions may reflect enhanced glacial erosion and reduced glacial meltwater from progressively colder ice. At this time, seismic data show that depocenters began to shift from the outer continental rise to the base of the continental slope coincident with the initial stages of the glacial erosion and overdeepening of the continental shelf. During the late Miocene to early Pliocene there was a transition to greater subglacial activity on the shelf and more pronounced cyclic facies variations on the continental rise. At this time, severe glacial morphologies initiated on the shelf with the erosion of Prydz Channel and other troughs by fast-moving ice and the deposition of overcompacted glacial diamictons by slow-moving ice on adjacent banks. The Prydz trough-mouth fan also began to form with alternating deposition of debris flows (ice at shelf edge) and muddy units (reduced ice) (Site 1167). The fan also records a transition during the late Pleistocene for times younger than 780 k.y. when short-term glacial variations continued but ice reached the shelf edge only a few times. Both short-term and long-term transitions characterize the Cenozoic evolution of the Prydz Bay region from the Cretaceous nonglacial to late Neogene full-glacial paleoenvironments. These transitions are known only from ODP cores, and further insights will require additional drilling.

Prydz Bay region↗

Finite-fault analysis of the 1979 March 14 Petatlan, Mexico, earthquake using teleseismic P waveforms

Vertical, teleseismic P waves recorded for the 1979 March 14 Petatlan, Mexico, earthquake were used to derive the distribution of coseismic slip using a linear finite-fault inversion scheme that solves for the amount of slip in each of a series of consecutive time windows. Data recorded by six stations of the Global Digital Seismograph Network were inverted in addition to digitized analogue long-period recordings available from nine Worldwide Standardized Seismograph Network stations. The digital data include four broad-band and short-period velocity waveforms reconstructed from the short- and long-period components. The time-window approach allows for a variable rise time on the fault and accounts for the source multiplicity evident in the recorded P waveforms. Synthetic tests conducted using the inversion method on the limited data set, however, reveal that the data are insufficient to identify the exact dislocation duration on the fault. The method is thus implemented by prescribing the fault rise time using five consecutive 1 s time windows. The coseismic slip inferred from the P waves shows a small 70 cm peak near the earthquake hypocentre and a large zone of dislocation (1.2 m maximum) further south-east. The slip pattern covers depths from 3 to 25 km and is located south-east of other recent large interplate ruptures on the Michoacan segment of the Mexican subduction zone. This result indicates that the 1979 Petatlan earthquake broke an independent, adjacent portion of the Cocos-North America plate boundary. The seismic moment of 1.5 × 10 27 dyn cm inferred from the P waves is approximately one-half the long-period moment estimated by other investigators from the observed surface waves. Although the discrepancy is within the uncertainty of the seismic-moment estimates, it may suggest the presence of a component of slow interplate motion that did not radiate significant P -wave energy.

Geophysical Journal International↗

Laboratory-based maximum slip rates in earthquake rupture zones and radiated energy

Laboratory stick-slip friction experiments indicate that peak slip rates increase with the stresses loading the fault to cause rupture. If this applies also to earthquake fault zones, then the analysis of rupture processes is simplified inasmuch as the slip rates depend only on the local yield stress and are independent of factors specific to a particular event, including the distribution of slip in space and time. We test this hypothesis by first using it to develop an expression for radiated energy that depends primarily on the seismic moment and the maximum slip rate. From laboratory results, the maximum slip rate for any crustal earthquake, as well as various stress parameters including the yield stress, can be determined based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone. After finding that our new equation for radiated energy works well for laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, we used it to estimate radiated energies for five earthquakes with magnitudes near 2 that were induced in a deep gold mine, an M 2.1 repeating earthquake near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) site and seven major earthquakes in California and found good agreement with energies estimated independently from spectra of local and regional ground-motion data. Estimates of yield stress for the earthquakes in our study range from 12 MPa to 122 MPa with a median of 64 MPa. The lowest value was estimated for the 2004 M 6 Parkfield, California, earthquake whereas the nearby M 2.1 repeating earthquake, as recorded in the SAFOD pilot hole, showed a more typical yield stress of 64 MPa.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Dendroseismological investigation of redwood trees along the North Coast section of the San Andreas Fault

Sequoia sempervirens (coast redwood) tree rings have the potential to annually resolve late-Holocene earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault based on direct (e.g., physical damage) and indirect (e.g., co-seismic environmental change) impacts, but scarcity of suitable samples and challenges crossdating this long-lived species have limited progress. More precise dating of the pre-1906 (penultimate) earthquake can improve hazard assessment and understanding of rupture segmentation. We target old trees (maximum >815 yr) along the North Coast section of the fault (increment cores via rope-climbing, 11 living trees; plunge cuts, 23 stumps) and employ complementary disturbance detection methods including radial-growth averaging (tree- and series-level), cataloging anatomical indicators (e.g., traumatic resin ducts, TRD), and dating structural components (e.g., reiterated trunks, leans). Multi-centennial ring-width chronologies at Fort Ross (1569−2023) and Gualala (1397−2023) promote continued study with incomplete crossdating limiting utilization of some series. Growth pulses (reductions, releases) and TRD dispersed across the record reflect dynamic environments that obfuscate detection of earthquake signals. The 1906 earthquake did not leave strong signatures on most trees, and when it did, within-tree response varied from normal presentation to discoloration, TRD, and missing rings. Synchrony of indicators at both locations identified 1678−1680 (6 of 15 trees) and 1698−1700 (8 of 16 trees) as the strongest disturbances among dated rings in the time range of the penultimate earthquake, peaking at 1698 (15.7 % of possible growth and anatomical indicators), but the triggering mechanisms for these events are unknown.

California↗

The 1923 Kanto earthquake reevaluated using a newly augmented geodetic data set

This study revisits the mechanism of the 1923 Ms = 7.9 Kanto earthquake in Japan. We derive a new source model and use it to assess quantitative and qualitative aspects of the accommodation of plate motion in the Kanto region. We use a new geodetic data set that consists of displacements from leveling and angle changes from triangulation measurements obtained in surveys between 1883 and 1927. Two unique aspects of our analysis are the inclusion of a large number of second-order triangulation measurements and the application of a correction to remove interseismic deformation. The geometry of the fault planes is adopted from a recent seismic reflection study of the Kanto region. We evaluate the minimum complexity necessary in the model to fit the data optimally. Our final uniform-slip elastic dislocation model consists of two adjacent ???20?? dipping low-angle planes accommodating reverse dextral slip of 6.0 in on the larger, eastern plane and 9.5 m on the smaller, western plane with azimuths of 163?? and 121??, respectively. The earthquake was located in the Sagami trough, where the Philippine Sea plate subducts under Honshu. Compared to the highly oblique angle of plate convergence, the coseismic slip on the large fault plane has a more orthogonal orientation to the strike of the plate boundary, suggesting that slip partitioning plays a role in accommodation of plate motion. What other structure is involved in the partitioning is unclear. Uplift records of marine coastal terraces in Sagami Bay document 7500 years of earthquake activity and predict average recurrence intervals of 400 years for events with vertical displacement profiles similar to those of the 1923 earthquake. This means that the average slip deficit per recurrence interval is ???50% of the relative plate convergence. These findings of plate motion partitioning and slip deficit lead us to suggest that instead of a simple recurrence model with characteristic earthquakes, additional mechanisms are necessary to describe the accommodation of deformation in the Kanto region. So far, obvious candidates for these alternative mechanisms have not been discovered. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Calibrated acoustic emission system records M -3.5 to M -8 events generated on a saw-cut granite sample

Acoustic emission (AE) analyses have been used for decades for rock mechanics testing, but because AE systems are not typically calibrated, the absolute sizes of dynamic microcrack growth and other physical processes responsible for the generation of AEs are poorly constrained. We describe a calibration technique for the AE recording system as a whole (transducers + amplifiers + digitizers + sample + loading frame) that uses the impact of a 4.76-mm free-falling steel ball bearing as a reference source. We demonstrate the technique on a 76-mm diameter cylinder of westerly granite loaded in a triaxial deformation apparatus at 40 MPa confining pressure. The ball bearing is dropped inside a cavity within the sample while inside the pressure vessel. We compare this reference source to conventional AEs generated during loading of a saw-cut fault in a second granite sample. All located AEs occur on the saw-cut surface and have moment magnitudes ranging from M −5.7 down to at least M −8. Dynamic events rupturing the entire simulated fault surface (stick–slip events) have measurable stress drop and macroscopic slip and radiate seismic waves similar to those from a M −3.5 earthquake. The largest AE events that do not rupture the entire fault are M −5.7. For these events, we also estimate the corner frequency (200–300 kHz), and we assume the Brune model to estimate source dimensions of 4–6 mm. These AE sources are larger than the 0.2 mm grain size and smaller than the 76 × 152 mm fault surface.

Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering↗

Magnetic field observations in the near-field the 28 June 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

Recent reports suggest that large magnetic field changes occur prior to, and during, large earthquakes. Two continuously operating proton magnetometers, LSBM and OCHM , at distances of 17.3 and 24.2 km, respectively, from the epicenter of the 28 June 1992 M w 7.3 Landers earthquake, recorded data through the earthquake and its aftershocks. These two stations are part of a differentially connected array of proton magnetometers that has been operated along the San Andreas fault since 1976. The instruments have a sensitivity of 0.25 nT or better and transmit data every 10 min through the GOES satellite to the USGS headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Seismomagnetic offsets of −1.2 ± 0.6 and −0.7 ± 0.7 nT were observed at these sites. In comparison, offsets of −0.3 ± 0.2 and −1.3 ± 0.2 nT were observed during the 8 July 1986 M L 5.9 North Palm Springs earthquake, which occurred directly beneath the OCHM magnetometer site. The observations are generally consistent with seismomagnetic models of the earthquake, in which fault geometry and slip have the same from as that determined by either inversion of the seismic data or inversion of geodetically determined ground displacements produced by the earthquake. In these models, right-lateral rupture occurs on connected fault segments in a homogeneous medium with average magnetization of 2 A/m. The fault-slip distribution has roughly the same form as the observed surface rupture, and the total moment release is 1.1 × 10 20 Nm. There is no indication of diffusion-like character to the magnetic field offsets that might indicate these effects result from fluid flow phenomena. It thus seems unlikely that these earthquake-generated offsets and those produced by the North Palm Springs earthquake were generated by electrokinetic effects. Also, there are no indications of enhanced low-frequency magnetic noise before the earthquake at frequencies below 0.001 Hz.

California↗

Cruise report for A1-02-SC southern California CABRILLO project, Earthquake Hazards Task

A two-week marine geophysical survey obtained sidescan-sonar images and multiple sets of high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles in the southern California offshore area between Point Arguello and Point Dume. The data were obtained to support two project activities of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Program: (1) the evaluation of the geologic hazards posed by earthquake faults and landslides in the offshore areas of Santa Barbara Channel and western Santa Monica Basin and (2) determine the location of active hydrocarbon seeps in the vicinity of Point Conception as part of a collaborative study with the Minerals Management Service (MMS). The 2002 cruise, A1-02- SC, is the fourth major data-collection effort in support of the first objective (Normark et al., 1999a, b; Gutmacher et al., 2000). A cruise to obtain sediment cores to constrain the timing of deformation interpreted from the geophysical records is planned for the summer of 2003.

California↗

Evaluation of some software measuring displacements using GPS in real-time

For the past decade, the USGS has been monitoring deformation at various locations in the western United States using continuous GPS. The main focus of these measurements are estimates of displacement averaged over one day. Essentially, these consist of recording at 30 seconds intervals the carrier-frequency phase-data (equivalent to travel-time) between a GPS receiver and the GPS satellite network. In turn, these observations, which are converted to pseudo—ranges, are processed using one of the “research grade” programs (GIPSY, Zumberge et al., or GAMIT, wwwgpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk) to estimate the position of the GPS receiver averaged over 24 hours. However, it is possible and desirable to estimate the position of the receiver (actually the antenna) more frequently and to do this within a few seconds of the time actual measurement (known as real-time). A recent example, the 2004 Magnitude 6, Parkfield, California earthquake, demonstrated that having GPS estimates of position more frequently than simply a daily average is required if one requires discrimination between co-seismic and post-seismic deformation (Langbein et al., 2006). The high-rate estimates of position obtained at Parkfield show that post-seismic deformation started less than one-hour after the mainshock and that this deformation was roughly the same magnitude as the co-seismic deformation. The high-rate solutions for Parkfield were done by others including Yehuda Bock at UCSD and Kristine Larson at U. of Colorado, but not the USGS. The Parkfield experience points out the need for an in-house capability by the USGS to be able to accurately measure co-seismic displacements and other rapid, deformation signals using GPS. This applies to both the Earthquake and Volcano Hazard programs. Although at many locations where we monitor deformation, we have strainmeters and tiltmeters in addition to GPS which, in principle, are far more sensitive to rapid deformation over periods of less than a day (Langbein and Bock, 2004). But, not all locales include strain and tiltmeters. Thus, having the capability to extract signals with periods of less than a day is desirable since the distribution of GPS is more extensive than strain and tilt. At both Parkfield and Long Valley, the USGS has been using other software packages to process the GPS data at sub-daily intervals and in real-time. The underlying goal of these types of measurements is to detect any deformation event as it evolves; the 24 hour processing might not provide timely results if such a deformation event is precursory to a geologic hazard (an earthquake for Parkfield and either a volcanic event or an earthquake for Long Valley). In Long Valley, We use the software package called 3DTracker (http://www.3dtracker.com, http://www.condorearth.com) to estimate the changes of in position of a remote site relative to a “fixed” site. The 3DTracker software uses double difference GPS code measurements and receiversatellite-time triple differences from one epoch to the next of the GPS phase data (a proxy for travel-time measurements) and employs a Kalman filter to obtain stability in the estimate of position. That is, the estimate of the current position depends upon the estimate of the prior position. Hence, a time series of position looks fairly smooth depending upon the coefficient selected for the Kalman filter. With triple differences, the sometimes troublesome initial integer cycle ambiguity terms cancel (number of wavelengths between the receiver and each satellite), but only the incremental change in position is calculated. This triple difference Kalman filter solution is slow to converge and less accurate than a double difference (e.g., RTD, Track) solution, but it is robust and computationally efficient (Remondi and Brown, 2000). 3D-Tracker allows use of various single-frequency and dual-frequency GPS phase and code observables including the ionospheric-free combinations (known as LC or L3 and P(L3)) formed from an linear combination of the L1 and L2 carrier phase and code data. The lowest noise observable is the L1 carrier, but it is biased by ionospheric refraction that has amplitudes of about 1 to 10 ppm. This results in a systematic scale error in the relative positions. The L3 phase noise is about 3 times greater than the L1 phase noise, but it is generally used to solve for all but the shortest baselines (< 5 km). In addition, the software does output the position changes is a standard format that can be used for other analysis. At Parkfield, we use the software package called RTD (http://www.geodetics.com). The RTD software has been described in the literature (Bock et al., 2000) but basically, it estimates the position without the constraint of a Kalman filter. It uses double differences (in our studies the LC or ionospheric free observable is used) and the integer ambiguities are resolved independently for each 1-second measurement; Most GPS software that use double-differences require several epochs of measurements to resolve the integer ambiguities. The data files use a proprietary format and can not be read by me or others; rather, Yehuda Bock at UCSD (and author of RTD) translates these files into a standard format that can be read by me. Recently, Tom Herring of MIT has modified the GAMIT software to process kinematically GPS data (www-gpsg.mit.edu/~simon/gtgk/tutorial/Lecture_13.pdf). At this time, the software, known as TRACK, does not process the observations in real-time. Consequently, the latency between the time of the observation and the time when a position estimate is available depends upon the frequency that the data are downloaded and the speed of actually processing the observations; there could be a delay of an hour or two before the a position estimates are available. Unlike RTD and 3DTracker, TRACK comes with GAMIT (which is distributed freely) and is currently operating in a test mode at the USGS office in Pasadena. The LC or ionosphere free observable is used in our TRACK solutions. JPL has a version of their GIPSY software called “Real-time GIPSY (RTG)” (gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/orms/rtg), which, like TRACK, can process the pseudo-range data “off—line”. However, this software is not freely distributed. Instead, at least one company, NAVCOM, has teamed with JPL to integrate RTG with GPS receivers and telemetry that yields positions in realtime. Kristine Larson of University of Colorado has modified the original GIPSY to estimate positions kinematically. Again, like TRACK, the positions are estimated off—line. Much of her research is described in Larson et al. (2003), and Choi et al. (2004). For Long Valley, out of the 17 GPS sites, we monitor 5 baselines within the caldera at 5 second intervals relative to the Bald Mountain site at the edge of the caldera using 3DTracker. The baseline measurement using 3DTracker consists of determination of the 3 dimensional positions of the 5 remote points (GPS receivers) relative to a GPS site at Bald. A second, independent system collects and downloads once a day the 30-second data used for the 24-hour solutions for the 12 sites not monitored with 3DTracker. For the sites monitored with 3DTracker, the pseudo—range data are decimated to 30 seconds and converted to a form used for the 24-hour solutions. Both sets of telemetry employ 900 MHz spread spectrum radios which require line of site between all of the links. The telemetry for the 3DTracker sites require a dedicated radios at each end and intermediate repeaters as needed, while the telemetry required for the other sites use a single master radio, repeaters as needed, and a radio at each remote site. (The 5 sites being monitored with 3DTracker require 13 radios.) At Parkfield, RTD is used to measure the position changes all 12 baselines at 1 second intervals relative to a site, Pomm, adjacent to the San Andreas Fault. The complete RTD package (hardware and software) collects all of the data and determines the position of each site relative to Pomm. In addition, the system stores both the 1-second and 30-second pseudo-range data for later downloading which are ultimately used in the 24-hour solutions. To do this, each site has a 2.4 GHz radio and a telemetry buffer. The telemetry buffer holds 24-hours of data (in the event that the telemetry link is broken) and converts the RS232 data stream from the GPS receiver into a form compatible with an IP (Internet protocol) network connection. In contrast with the Long Valley system, the telemetry link for GPS at Parkfield consists of a single radio at each remote sites and a single radio at the central site. Although position estimates are produced within 1-second of the observations, these results are not immediately available because there is no high speed Internet connection to Parkfield. Instead, the data are stored on a removable disk and sent to UCSD once per month. Below, I describe the results of a simple experiment to examine the response of some of these systems to simulated deformation that could be an analogue of a tectonic or volcanic event. In many engineering applications, the system response is tested by inputting a step to the system and measuring the output of the system. Essentially, this is what I've done. The experiment described below moves the GPS antenna from its original position to a new position within 1 second; the software tracks the translation. These measurements were conducted in August 2004 with the RTD software at Parkfield, and twice in Long Valley. The first Long Valley test was conducted in September 2004 using 3DTracker on a single baseline. The test was repeated in September 2005 using 3DTracker on two baselines and, importantly, saving the RINEX files of the data so that the data could be replayed through 3DTracker using other options in the program and, using other software packages including TRACK. In addition, we observed a short-term event at the Three Sisters volcano in Oregon. This event was snow melt at a remote GPS site which gave an apparent 15 cm displacement in vertical in less than one-day. 3DTracker is used to monitor this site, and the event was captured with this software. In addition, with the assistance of others, I got additional estimates of position using other software packages; those results are presented. Finally, the precision of both 3DTracker and RTD are compared using a power spectrum. Those results would suggest that 3DTracker using appropriate Kalman filter coefficients would have better precision than RTD; instead, the lower noise level from 3DTracker is a result of smoothing from the Kalman filter. Given the results described in this report, high-rate GPS is certainly capable of accurately measuring displacements of 1 centimeter with a high degree of statistical confidence. Plotting these results show that the time of the displacement can be visually determined to that of the sampling interval of the data. However, especially with small amplitude signals, any of the software packages can yield erroneous deformation “signals” that are either due excess travel-time of the GPS carrier frequency from multipath or a limitation in the software. Thus, the time series of displacements must be viewed with caution and knowledge of external circumstances that might cause a change in position. The casual reader should continue with the next section describing the methods then jump to the last two sections for the discussion and conclusions. I have made some recommendations there.

Open-File Report↗

Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: What a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work

The concept of the earthquake cycle is so well established that one often hears statements in the popular media like, "the Big One is overdue" and "the longer it waits, the bigger it will be." Surprisingly, data to critically test the variability in recurrence intervals, rupture displacements, and relationships between the two are almost nonexistent. To generate a long series of earthquake intervals and offsets, we have conducted paleoseismic investigations across the San Andreas fault near the town of Wrightwood, California, excavating 45 trenches over 18 years, and can now provide some answers to basic questions about recurrence behavior of large earthquakes. To date, we have characterized at least 30 prehistoric earthquakes in a 6000-yr-long record, complete for the past 1500 yr and for the interval 3000-1500 B.C. For the past 1500 yr, the mean recurrence interval is 105 yr (31-165 yr for individual intervals) and the mean slip is 3.2 m (0.7-7 m per event). The series is slightly more ordered than random and has a notable cluster of events, during which strain was released at 3 times the long-term average rate. Slip associated with an earthquake is not well predicted by the interval preceding it, and only the largest two earthquakes appear to affect the time interval to the next earthquake. Generally, short intervals tend to coincide with large displacements and long intervals with small displacements. The most significant correlation we find is that earthquakes are more frequent following periods of net strain accumulation spanning multiple seismic cycles. The extent of paleoearthquake ruptures may be inferred by correlating event ages between different sites along the San Andreas fault. Wrightwood and other nearby sites experience rupture that could be attributed to overlap of relatively independent segments that each behave in a more regular manner. However, the data are equally consistent with a model in which the irregular behavior seen at Wrightwood typifies the entire southern San Andreas fault; more long event series will be required to definitively outline prehistoric rupture extents.

California↗

Submarine landslides in Arctic sedimentation: Canada Basin

Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean is the least studied ocean basin in the World. Marine seismic field programs were conducted over the past 6 years using Canadian and American icebreakers. These expeditions acquired more than 14,000 line-km of multibeam bathymetric and multi-channel seismic reflection data over abyssal plain, continental rise and slope regions of Canada Basin; areas where little or no seismic reflection data existed previously. Canada Basin is a turbidite-filled basin with flat-lying reflections correlateable over 100s of km. For the upper half of the sedimentary succession, evidence of sedimentary processes other than turbidity current deposition is rare. The Canadian Archipelago and Beaufort Sea margins host stacked mass transport deposits from which many of these turbidites appear to derive. The stratigraphic succession of the MacKenzie River fan is dominated by mass transport deposits; one such complex is in excess of 132,000 km2 in area and underlies much of the southern abyssal plain. The modern seafloor is also scarred with escarpments and mass failure deposits; evidence that submarine landsliding is an ongoing process. In its latest phase of development, Canada Basin is geomorphologically confined with stable oceanographic structure, resulting in restricted depositional/reworking processes. The sedimentary record, therefore, underscores the significance of mass-transport processes in providing sediments to oceanic abyssal plains as few other basins are able to do.

Alaska↗

The attenuation of Fourier amplitudes for rock sites in eastern North America

We develop an empirical model of the decay of Fourier amplitudes for earthquakes of M 3–6 recorded on rock sites in eastern North America and discuss its implications for source parameters. Attenuation at distances from 10 to 500 km may be adequately described using a bilinear model with a geometric spreading of 1/R 1.3 to a transition distance of 50 km, with a geometric spreading of 1/R 0.5 at greater distances. For low frequencies and distances less than 50 km, the effective geometric spreading given by the model is perturbed using a frequency‐ and hypocentral depth‐dependent factor defined in such a way as to increase amplitudes at lower frequencies near the epicenter but leave the 1 km source amplitudes unchanged. The associated anelastic attenuation is determined for each event, with an average value being given by a regional quality factor of Q=525f 0.45 . This model provides a match, on average, between the known seismic moment of events and the inferred low‐frequency spectral amplitudes at R=1 km (obtained by correcting for the attenuation model). The inferred Brune stress parameters from the high‐frequency source terms are about 600 bars (60 MPa), on average, for events of M>4.5.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Ground-motion aleatory-variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

I develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability for crustal and subduction-zone (interface and intraslab) earthquakes for seismic hazards analyses in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) from existing suites of ground-motion models (GMMs) and from ground-motion datasets, including a regional PRVI dataset. The aleatory variability models are parameterized using a partially nonergodic partitioning of standard deviation that consists of independently developed between-event ( ), site-to-site ( ), and event-corrected single-station ( ) standard deviation components. The effects of nonlinear site response on aleatory variability are incorporated through additional terms that modify the standard deviation components. Because one goal of this work is to develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability that synthesize the aleatory variability models from GMMs, I make use of the functional forms of the input GMMs. The PRVI dataset contains a limited number of stations with high-quality site metadata and does not contain records from earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.1, so I choose not to develop the aleatory variability models from the regional dataset alone. Instead, the standard deviation components from regional ground-motion data are evaluated against the components derived from GMMs and from available global datasets, and regionalized standard deviation components are incorporated where there is evidence that regional effects exhibit substantial differences. The resulting logic trees for aleatory variability consist of models of and that are consistent with semiempirical GMMs for active crustal and subduction-zone regimes, and two alternative models of , including one model that exhibits site-to-site variability informed by PRVI data, with values that exceed global models. The aleatory variability models may be considered in future hazards assessments in PRVI to simplify the hazard calculations, to incorporate regional ground-motion variability effects, and to enable direct logic-tree weighs of aleatory variability.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

Instrumental lahar monitoring at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia

More than 50 volcanic debris flows or lahars were generated around Mt Merapi during the first rainy season following the nuees ardentes of 22 November 1994. The rainfalls that triggered the lahars were analyzed, using such instruments as weather radar and telemetered rain gauges. Lahar dynamics were also monitored, using new non-contact detection instrumentation installed on the slopes of the volcano. These devices include real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM), seismic spectral amplitude measurement (SSAM) and acoustic flow monitoring (AFM) systems. Calibration of the various systems was accomplished by field measurements of flow velocities and discharge, contemporaneously with instrumental monitoring. The 1994–1995 lahars were relatively short events, their duration in the Boyong river commonly ranging between 30 min and 1 h 30 min. The great majority (90%) of the lahars was recognized at Kaliurang village between 13:00 and 17:30 h, due to the predominance of afternoon rainfalls. The observed mean velocity of lahar fronts ranged between 1.1 and 3.4 m/s, whereas the peak velocity of the flows varied from 11 to 15 m/s, under the Gardu Pandang viewpoint location at Kaliurang, to 8–10 m/s at a section 500 m downstream from this site. River slopes vary from 28 to 22 m/km at the two sites. Peak discharges recorded in various events ranged from 33 to 360 m 3 /s, with the maximum value of peak discharge 360 m 3 /s, on 20 May 1995. To improve the lahar warning system along Boyong river, some instrumental thresholds were proposed: large and potentially hazardous lahars may be detected by RSAM units exceeding 400, SSAM units exceeding 80 on the highest frequency band, or AFM values greater than 1500 mV on the low-gain, broad-band setting.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Stress evolution following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake: Consequences for afterslip, relaxation, aftershocks and departures from Omori decay

We explore how Coulomb stress transfer and viscoelastic relaxation control afterslip and aftershocks in a continental thrust fault system. The 1999 September 21 M w = 7.6 Chi-Chi shock is typical of continental ramp-d??collement systems throughout the world, and so inferences drawn from this uniquely well-recorded event may be widely applicable. First, we find that the spatial and depth distribution of aftershocks and their focal mechanisms are consistent with the calculated Coulomb stress changes imparted by the coseismic rupture. Some 61 per cent of the M ??? 2 aftershocks and 83 per cent of the M ??? 4 aftershocks lie in regions for which the Coulomb stress increased by ???0.1 bars, and there is a 11-12 per cent gain in the percentage of aftershocks nodal planes on which the shear stress increased over the pre-Chi Chi control period. Second, we find that afterslip occurred where the calculated coseismic stress increased on the fault ramp and d??collement, subject to the condition that friction is high on the ramp and low on the d??collement. Third, viscoelastic relaxation is evident from the fit of the post-seismic GPS data on the footwall. Fourth, we find that the rate of seismicity began to increase during the post-seismic period in an annulus extending east of the main rupture. The spatial extent of the seismicity annulus resembles the calculated ???0.05-bar Coulomb stress increase caused by viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip, and we find a 9-12 per cent gain in the percentage of focal mechanisms with >0.01-bar shear stress increases imparted by the post-seismic afterslip and relaxation in comparison to the control period. Thus, we argue that post-seismic stress changes can for the first time be shown to alter the production of aftershocks, as judged by their rate, spatial distribution, and focal mechanisms. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

From field station to forecast: Managing data at the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) uses multidisciplinary data to monitor and study dozens of active and potentially active volcanoes. Here, we provide an overview of internally and externally generated data types, tools and resources used in their management, and challenges faced. Data sources include the following: (1) a multiparameter (seismic, infrasound, GNSS, web cameras) ground-based monitoring network that spans 3000 km and transmits data in real time; (2) a variety of satellite-borne sensors that provide information about surface change and volcanic emissions; (3) geologic and gas field campaigns; and (4) other external data products that provide situation awareness. Each data type requires distinct acquisition, processing, storage, visualization, and archiving approaches. AVO uses a variety of externally and internally developed tools to handle individual data types as well as multidisciplinary volcanological data. A primary tool is the Geologic Database of Information on Volcanoes in Alaska (GeoDIVA), which stores detailed, searchable information on more than 140 volcanoes and over 1000 eruptions and unrest events, including images, eruption descriptions, and geologic station and sample data, metadata, and analyses. It interacts with other internal tools that store monitoring reports and other operational records. Additional data management resources used by AVO assist with alarms and alerts, state-of-health monitoring, and multiparameter visualization. Requirements for 24/7 accessibility, the ever-expanding portfolio of data, and transitioning new tools from development to operations are all challenges faced by AVO and other volcano observatories. AVO strives to meet FAIR data practices and ensure that data are available to national and international community efforts using external repositories as well as those hosted by AVO and its parent institutions.

Alaska↗