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USGS2022

Diet energy density estimated from isotopes in predator hair associated with survival, habitat, and population dynamics

Sea ice loss is fundamentally altering the Arctic marine environment. Yet there is a paucity of data on the adaptability of food webs to ecosystem change, including predator-prey interactions. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are an important subsistence resource for Indigenous people and an apex predator that relies entirely on the under-ice food web to meet their energy needs. Here, we assessed whether polar bears maintained dietary energy density by prey switching in response to spatial-temporal variation in prey availability. We compared the macronutrient composition of diets inferred from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in polar bear guard hair (primarily representing summer/fall diet) during periods when bears had low and high survival 2004-2016, between bears that summered on land versus pack ice, and between bears occupying different regions of the Alaskan and Canadian Beaufort Sea. Polar bears consumed diets with lower energy density during periods of low survival suggesting that concurrent increased dietary proportions of beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ) did not offset reduced proportions of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ). Diets with the lowest energy density and proportions from ringed seal blubber were consumed by bears in the western Beaufort Sea (Alaska) during a period when polar bear abundance declined. Intake required to meet energy requirements of an average free-ranging adult female polar bear was 2.1 kg/day on diets consumed during years with high survival but rose to 3.0 kg/day when survival was low. Although bears that summered onshore in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea had higher fat diets than bears that summered on the pack ice, access to the remains of subsistence-harvested bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus ) contributed little to improving diet energy density. Because most bears in this region remain with the sea ice year-round, prey-switching and consumption of whale carcasses onshore appear insufficient to augment diets when availability of their primary prey, ringed seals, is reduced. Our results show that a strong predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals continues in the Beaufort Sea. The method of estimating dietary blubber using predator hair, demonstrated here, provides a new metric to monitor predator-prey relationships that affect individual health and population demographics.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2014

Influence of whitebark pine decline on fall habitat use and movements of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

When abundant, seeds of the high-elevation whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis ) are an important fall food for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Rates of bear mortality and bear/human conflicts have been inversely associated with WBP productivity. Recently, mountain pine beetles ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ) have killed many cone-producing WBP trees. We used fall (15 August–30 September) Global Positioning System locations from 89 bear years to investigate temporal changes in habitat use and movements during 2000–2011. We calculated Manly–Chesson (MC) indices for selectivity of WBP habitat and secure habitat (≥500 m from roads and human developments), determined dates of WBP use, and documented net daily movement distances and activity radii. To evaluate temporal trends, we used regression, model selection, and candidate model sets consisting of annual WBP production, sex, and year. One-third of sampled grizzly bears had fall ranges with little or no mapped WBP habitat. Most other bears (72%) had a MC index above 0.5, indicating selection for WBP habitats. From 2000 to 2011, mean MC index decreased and median date of WBP use shifted about 1 week later. We detected no trends in movement indices over time. Outside of national parks, there was no correlation between the MC indices for WBP habitat and secure habitat, and most bears (78%) selected for secure habitat. Nonetheless, mean MC index for secure habitat decreased over the study period during years of good WBP productivity. The wide diet breadth and foraging plasticity of grizzly bears likely allowed them to adjust to declining WBP. Bears reduced use of WBP stands without increasing movement rates, suggesting they obtained alternative fall foods within their local surroundings. However, the reduction in mortality risk historically associated with use of secure, high-elevation WBP habitat may be diminishing for bears residing in multiple-use areas.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Distance measures and optimization spaces in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis has become an important method of diet estimation in ecology, especially marine ecology. Controlled feeding trials to validate the method and estimate the calibration coefficients necessary to account for differential metabolism of individual fatty acids have been conducted with several species from diverse taxa. However, research into potential refinements of the estimation method has been limited. We compared the performance of the original method of estimating diet composition with that of five variants based on different combinations of distance measures and calibration-coefficient transformations between prey and predator fatty acid signature spaces. Fatty acid signatures of pseudopredators were constructed using known diet mixtures of two prey data sets previously used to estimate the diets of polar bears Ursus maritimus and gray seals Halichoerus grypus, and their diets were then estimated using all six variants. In addition, previously published diets of Chukchi Sea polar bears were re-estimated using all six methods. Our findings reveal that the selection of an estimation method can meaningfully influence estimates of diet composition. Among the pseudopredator results, which allowed evaluation of bias and precision, differences in estimator performance were rarely large, and no one estimator was universally preferred, although estimators based on the Aitchison distance measure tended to have modestly superior properties compared to estimators based on the Kullback-Leibler distance measure. However, greater differences were observed among estimated polar bear diets, most likely due to differential estimator sensitivity to assumption violations. Our results, particularly the polar bear example, suggest that additional research into estimator performance and model diagnostics is warranted.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2017

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), using three common data types for bear ( U . spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Estimating distemper virus dynamics among wolves and grizzly bears using serology and Bayesian state‐space models

Many parasites infect multiple hosts, but estimating the transmission across host species remains a key challenge in disease ecology. We investigated the within and across host species dynamics of canine distemper virus (CDV) in grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) and wolves ( Canis lupus ) of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We hypothesized that grizzly bears may be more likely to be exposed to CDV during outbreaks in the wolf population because grizzly bears often displace wolves while scavenging carcasses. We used serological data collected from 1984 to 2014 in conjunction with Bayesian state‐space models to infer the temporal dynamics of CDV. These models accounted for the unknown timing of pathogen exposure, and we assessed how different testing thresholds and the potential for testing errors affected our conclusions. We identified three main CDV outbreaks (1999, 2005, and 2008) in wolves, which were more obvious when we used higher diagnostic thresholds to qualify as seropositive. There was some evidence for increased exposure rates in grizzly bears in 2005, but the magnitude of the wolf effect on bear exposures was poorly estimated and depended upon our prior distributions. Grizzly bears were exposed to CDV prior to wolf reintroduction and during time periods outside of known wolf outbreaks, thus wolves are only one of several potential routes for grizzly bear exposures. Our modeling approach accounts for several of the shortcomings of serological data and is applicable to many wildlife disease systems, but is most informative when testing intervals are short. CDV circulates in a wide range of carnivore species, but it remains unclear whether the disease persists locally within the GYE carnivore community or is periodically reintroduced from distant regions with larger host populations.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Estimating the energy expenditure of free‐ranging polar bears using tri‐axial accelerometers: A validation with doubly labeled water

Measures of energy expenditure can be used to inform animal conservation and management, but methods for measuring the energy expenditure of free‐ranging animals have a variety of limitations. Advancements in biologging technologies have enabled the use of dynamic body acceleration derived from accelerometers as a proxy for energy expenditure. Although dynamic body acceleration has been shown to strongly correlate with oxygen consumption in captive animals, it has been validated in only a few studies on free‐ranging animals. Here, we use relationships between oxygen consumption and overall dynamic body acceleration in resting and walking polar bears Ursus maritimus and published values for the costs of swimming in polar bears to estimate the total energy expenditure of 6 free‐ranging polar bears that were primarily using the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Energetic models based on accelerometry were compared to models of energy expenditure on the same individuals derived from doubly labeled water methods. Accelerometer‐based estimates of energy expenditure on average predicted total energy expenditure to be 30% less than estimates derived from doubly labeled water. Nevertheless, accelerometer‐based measures of energy expenditure strongly correlated ( r 2 = 0.70) with measures derived from doubly labeled water. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations in dynamic body acceleration as a measure of total energy expenditure while also further supporting its use as a proxy for instantaneous, detailed energy expenditure in free‐ranging animals.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

USGS2020

Fatty acid-based diet estimates suggest ringed seal remain the main prey of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears despite recent use of onshore food resources

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation have traditionally fed predominantly upon ice‐seals; however, as the proportion of the subpopulation using onshore habitat has recently increased, foraging on land‐based resources, including remains of subsistence‐harvested bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus ) and colonial nesting seabirds has been observed. Adipose tissue samples were collected from this subpopulation during the springs of 2013–2016 and analyzed for fatty acid signatures. Diet estimates were generated for the proportional consumption of ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ), bearded seal ( Erignathus barbatus ), and beluga whale ( Delphinapterus leucas ), relative to onshore foods, including bowhead whale remains and seabird, as represented by black guillemot ( Cepphus grylle mandtii ) nestlings and eggs. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) estimated that the ice‐obligate prey, ringed seal, remained the predominant prey species of SB polar bears (46.4 ± 1.8%), with much lower consumption of bearded seal (19.6 ± 2.0%), seabird (17.0 ± 1.2%), bowhead whale (15.0 ± 1.4%), and hardly any beluga whale (2.0 ± 0.5%). Adult and subadult females appeared to depend more on the traditional ringed seal prey than adult and subadult males. Diet estimates of SB polar bears showed significant interannual variability for all prey ( F 12, 456 = 3.17, p < .001). Longer‐term estimates suggested that both types of onshore prey, bowhead whale remains and seabird, have represented a moderate proportion of the food resources used by SB polar bears since at least the start of the 21st Century.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Spatial capture–recapture with random thinning for unidentified encounters

Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models have increasingly been used as a basis for combining capture–recapture data types with variable levels of individual identity information to estimate population density and other demographic parameters. Recent examples are the unmarked SCR (or spatial count model), where no individual identities are available and spatial mark–resight (SMR) where individual identities are available for only a marked subset of the population. Currently lacking, though, is a model that allows unidentified samples to be combined with identified samples when there are no separate classes of “marked” and “unmarked” individuals and when the two sample types cannot be considered as arising from two independent observation models. This is a common scenario when using noninvasive sampling methods, for example, when analyzing data on identified and unidentified photographs or scats from the same sites. Here we describe a “random thinning” SCR model that utilizes encounters of both known and unknown identity samples using a natural mechanistic dependence between samples arising from a single observation model. Our model was fitted in a Bayesian framework using NIMBLE. We investigate the improvement in parameter estimates by including the unknown identity samples, which was notable (up to 79% more precise) in low‐density populations with a low rate of identified encounters. We then applied the random thinning SCR model to a noninvasive genetic sampling study of brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) density in Oriental Cantabrian Mountains (North Spain). Our model can improve density estimation for noninvasive sampling studies for low‐density populations with low rates of individual identification, by making use of available data that might otherwise be discarded.

Ecology & Evolution↗

USGS2025

SiMPL wildlife magnets: A camera trap tool for detecting all creatures great and small

We created the SiMPL wildlife magnet—a baited camera trap design that allows passive monitoring of wildlife, particularly small- to medium-sized mammals. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is inexpensive and easy to construct. To evaluate its effectiveness, we conducted a two-year case study using 9 camera stations along an elevation gradient in the White Mountains of the northeastern United States. We examined how the detection probability of mammal species changed with the inclusion of a SiMPL wildlife magnet using data from pre-and post-establishment. We found a significant increase in community-level detection probability with the use of SiMPL wildlife magnets and for individual species, including red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ), American marten ( Martes americana ), and fisher ( Pekania pennanti ). Moreover, we were able to capture more species with SiMPL wildlife magnets than without, including flying squirrels ( Glaucomys spp.), various rodents ( Cricetidae spp.), black bears ( Ursus americanus ), moose ( Alces alces ), owls, and other birds. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is an effective, low-cost method for surveying wildlife communities, especially rodents and mesocarnivores. It addresses the limited field of view presented by other techniques for capturing small mammals on camera traps and enables efficient collection of phenology data, including vegetation and snowpack. This tool has several applications, including monitoring species' responses to management practices and global change.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

An energetic tradeoff best explains parturition timing in grizzly bears

Timing of grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) parturition during hibernation has been explained by ancestral traits (delayed implantation, altricial young, obligate maternal denning), but the ultimate driver underlying precise timing has not been fully explored. Capitalizing on an observed latitudinal increase in denning duration among four populations in interior North America, we tested two alternative hypotheses. First, that birth timing results from a physiological cue that synchronizes implantation with the onset of hibernation, allowing females to forgo reproduction should they lack adequate fat stores. Alternatively, that parturition is optimally timed relative to den exit to balance an energetic tradeoff between minimizing lactation time to protect the mother and maximizing developmental time to increase cub survival. Using parturition dates previously predicted from accelerometer data (27 Dec–28 Feb), we classified 115 females according to apparent litter survival when first visually observed after den exit: 57% successful (with cubs), 22% unsuccessful (alone), and 21% unknown (not observed). The number of days between birth and den exit showed no association with latitude ( p = 0.29). It averaged 103 days among successful females but only 77 days among unsuccessful females ( p < 0.001) owing to later births and earlier exit. With each increasing degree of latitude, birth date increased by 1.0 and number of days between den entry and birth increased by 2.5 ( p < 0.001). Implantation dates were not centered on den entry dates ( p < 0.001). These results supported the energetic tradeoff hypothesis and suggested natural selection has favored a consistent number of days between parturition and den exit under average body conditions and shifts toward later or earlier births for females with lower or higher levels of bodily stored energy, respectively. This flexible tradeoff may support resilience to climate change and present a possible mechanism explaining reduced natality and cub survival in high-density populations.

Alaska, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Mammalian predator co‐occurrence affected by prey and habitat more than competitor presence at multiple time scales

The behavior and abundance of sympatric predators can be affected by a complex dominance hierarchy. The strength of antagonistic interactions in predator communities is difficult to study and remains poorly understood for many predator assemblages. Predators directly and indirectly influence the broader ecosystem, so identifying the relative importance of competition, prey, and habitat in shaping predator interactions has broad conservation and management implications. We investigated space use among five predator species (black bear [ Ursus americanus ], bobcat [ Lynx rufus ], coyote [ Canis latrans ], mountain lion [ Puma concolor ], and gray wolf [ Canis lupus ]) across three temporal scales in northern Idaho, USA. We used camera trap data to test whether potentially subordinate predators spatially avoided dominant predators and how prey availability influenced those relationships. We found few instances of subordinate predators spatially avoiding dominant predators and only at the finest temporal scale of our analyses. Instead, habitat features generally influenced predator space use patterns at coarser scales whereas prey and competitor presence influenced space use patterns at finer scales. Co-occurrence was positively associated between coyotes and bobcats at coarser timescales and between mesopredators and apex predators at finer timescales. Bobcats and mountain lions temporarily delayed the use of sites recently visited by coyotes and black bears, respectively. And all predator species used sites sooner following the detection of a competitor in areas with higher relative abundances of prey (primarily white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]). Our results suggest attraction to shared habitats and prey resources influenced space use in the predator community more than avoidance of competitors. We propose that the effects of interspecific interactions on predator distributions were most evident for mesopredators because their trophic position requires balancing risks and rewards associated with prey, apex predators, and other mesopredators. In addition, relatively high densities of a common prey source likely facilitated the spatial coexistence in this predator community. Our study demonstrates the value of simultaneously assessing multiple interspecific interactions across different spatiotemporal scales to discern relationships within the predator guild.

Idaho↗

USGS2025

The diel niche of brown bears: Constraints on adaptive capacity in human-modified landscapes

D Diel activity rhythms, representing the behavioral pattern of the sleep–wake cycle, may be adjusted by wildlife in response to changes in environmental conditions. An increase in nocturnality is typically recognized as an adaptive strategy to segregate from humans and mitigate heat stress. Numerous studies have investigated spatial patterns and habitat use of large carnivores in human-modified landscapes, but little research has examined their activity rhythms. We compiled Global Positioning System data (2004–2022) for 139 brown bears Ursus arctos from six populations across Europe, representing a human-modified landscape, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, U.S.A., representing a landscape with limited human impact, which we used to calculate hourly movement rates as an activity proxy. Using a Bayesian approach to model the temporal autocorrelation of activity data, we tested if the extent of nocturnality in brown bears is modulated by intensity of human encroachment, accounting for primary productivity and maximum ambient temperature. All bear populations exhibited a predominantly bimodal, crepuscular pattern of activity, although Yellowstone bears were proportionally more crepuscular and diurnal. Whereas the effect of primary productivity was variable, all European populations became more nocturnal in response to higher human encroachment and reduced diurnal and crepuscular activity at higher summer temperatures, decreasing overall diel activity levels. Yellowstone bears displayed the greatest shift towards nocturnality among all populations in response to increasing human encroachment, and increased nocturnal activity to compensate for lower diurnal and crepuscular activity at higher summer temperatures. Our research indicates that European bears in human-modified landscapes may be reaching a limit in the behavioral plasticity they can manifest in their activity patterns, being already constrained into increased nocturnality. Our findings enhance the understanding of brown bear adaptive capacity to accommodate future changes, such as urbanization and increasing temperatures, to the ecosystems they inhabit.

Ecography↗

USGS2016

Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears

Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global temperatures, were the most influential determinant of population outcomes. Accordingly, unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations was the dominant influence leading to worsened population outcomes, with polar bears in three of four ecoregions reaching a dominant probability of decreased or greatly decreased by the latter part of this century. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations by mid-century delayed the greatly reduced state by ≈25 yr in two ecoregions. Prompt and aggressive mitigation of emissions reduced the probability of any regional population becoming greatly reduced by up to 25%. Marine prey availability, linked closely to sea ice trend, had slightly less influence on outcome state than sea ice availability itself. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted in modest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and contaminants had a negligible effect on polar bear outcomes, although the model was not well-informed with respect to the potential influence of these stressors. Adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat became more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthened beyond four months, which could occur in most of the Arctic basin after mid-century if GHG emissions are not promptly reduced. Long-term conservation of polar bears would be best supported by holding global mean temperature to ≤ 2°C above preindustrial levels. Until further sea ice loss is stopped, management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects for their long-term persistence.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Efficacy of GPS cluster analysis for predicting carnivory sites of a wide-ranging omnivore: the American black bear

The capacity to describe and quantify predation by large carnivores expanded considerably with the advent of GPS technology. Analyzing clusters of GPS locations formed by carnivores facilitates the detection of predation events by identifying characteristics which distinguish predation sites. We present a performance assessment of GPS cluster analysis as applied to the predation and scavenging of an omnivore, the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), on ungulate prey and carrion. Through field investigations of 6854 GPS locations from 24 individual bears, we identified 54 sites where black bears formed a cluster of locations while predating or scavenging elk ( Cervus elaphus ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), or cattle ( Bos spp.). We developed models for three data sets to predict whether a GPS cluster was formed at a carnivory site vs. a non-carnivory site (e.g., bed sites or non-ungulate foraging sites). Two full-season data sets contained GPS locations logged at either 3-h or 30-min intervals from April to November, and a third data set contained 30-min interval data from April through July corresponding to the calving period for elk. Longer fix intervals resulted in the detection of fewer carnivory sites. Clusters were more likely to be carnivory sites if they occurred in open or edge habitats, if they occurred in the early season, if the mean distance between all pairs of GPS locations within the cluster was less, and if the cluster endured for a longer period of time. Clusters were less likely to be carnivory sites if they were initiated in the morning or night compared to the day. The top models for each data set performed well and successfully predicted 71–96% of field-verified carnivory events, 55–75% of non–carnivory events, and 58–76% of clusters overall. Refinement of this method will benefit from further application across species and ecological systems.

New Mexico↗

USGS2017

Temporal complexity of southern Beaufort Sea polar bear diets during a period of increasing land use

From 2000 to 2013, use of land as a seasonal habitat by polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) subpopulation substantially increased. This onshore use has been linked to reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice, as well as to the availability of subsistence‐harvested bowhead whale ( Balaena mysticetus ) bone piles. Here, we evaluated the role of climate conditions on consumption of traditional ice‐associated prey relative to onshore bowhead whale bone piles. We determined seasonal and interannual trends in the diets of SB polar bears using fatty acid‐based analysis during this period of increasing land use. Diet estimates of 569 SB polar bears from 2004 to 2012 showed high seasonal fluctuations in the proportions of prey consumed. Higher proportions of bowhead whale, as well as ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ) and beluga whale ( Delphinapterus leucas ), were estimated to occur in the winter–spring diet, while higher proportions of bearded seal ( Erignathus barbatus ) were estimated for summer–fall diets. Trends in the annual mean proportions of individual prey items were not found in either period, except for significant declines in the proportion of beluga in spring‐sampled bears. Nonetheless, in years following a high winter Arctic oscillation index, proportions of ice‐associated ringed seal were lower in the winter–spring diets of adult females and juveniles. Proportions of bowhead increased in the winter–spring diets of adult males with the number of ice‐free days over the continental shelf. In one or both seasons, polar bears that were in better condition were estimated to have consumed less ringed seal and/or more bowhead whale than those in worse condition. Therefore, climate variation over this recent period appeared to influence the extent of onshore vs. on‐ice food use, which in turn, appeared to be linked to fluctuating condition of SB polar bears.

Beaufort Sea↗

USGS2020

Individual and population fitness consequences associated with large carnivore use of residential development

Large carnivores are negotiating increasingly developed landscapes, but little is known about how such behavioral plasticity influences their demographic rates and population trends. Some investigators have suggested that the ability of carnivores to behaviorally adapt to human development will enable their persistence, and yet, others have suggested that such landscapes are likely to serve as population sinks or ecological traps. To understand how plasticity in black bear (Ursus americanus) use of residential development influences their population dynamics, we conducted a 6 year study near Durango, Colorado, USA. Using space-use data on individual bears, we examined the influence of use of residential development on annual measures of bear body fat, cub productivity, cub survival and adult female survival, after accounting for variation in natural food availability and individual attributes (e.g., age). We then used our field-based vital rate estimates to parameterize a matrix model that simulated asymptotic population growth for bears using residential development to different degrees. We found that bear use of residential development was highly variable within and across years, with bears increasing their foraging within development when natural foods were scarce. Increased bear use of development was associated with increased body fat and cub productivity, but reduced cub and adult survival. When these effects were simultaneously incorporated into a matrix model we found that the population was projected to decline as bear use of development increased, given that the costs of reduced survival outweighed the benefits of enhanced productivity. Our results provide a mechanistic understanding of how black bear use of residential development exerts opposing effects on different bear fitness traits and a negative effect on population growth, with the magnitude of those effects mediated by variation in environmental conditions. They also highlight the importance of monitoring bear population dynamics, particularly as shifts in bear behavior are likely to drive increases in human-bear conflicts and the perception of growing bear populations. Finally, our work emphasizes the need to consider the demographic viability of large carnivore populations when promoting the coexistence of people and carnivores on shared landscapes.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Effects of sea ice decline and summer land use on polar bear home range size in the Beaufort Sea

Animals responding to habitat loss and fragmentation may increase their home ranges to offset declines in localized resources or they may decrease their home ranges and switch to alternative resources. In many regions of the Arctic, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) exhibit some of the largest home ranges of any quadrupedal mammal. Polar bears are presently experiencing a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice extent and a change in sea ice composition. For the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar bears, this has resulted in a divergent movement pattern where most of the subpopulation remains on the sea ice in the summer melt season while the remainder move to land. We evaluated the effects of summer land use and maternal denning on the annual and seasonal utilization distribution size (i.e., home range) of adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation over 30 yr (1986–2016) during a period of rapid sea ice decline. For bears that remained on the summer sea ice, model-derived mean annual utilization distributions were 64% larger in 1999–2016 ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 176,000 km 2 ) relative to 1986–1998 ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 107,000 km 2 ). This increase was primarily driven by increases in summer utilization distributions that encompassed increased amounts of open water and decreased amounts of preferred sea ice. The mean centroid of summer utilization distributions for bears that remained on the sea ice was 193 km further north-northeast in 1999–2016. In contrast, bears that summered on land during 1999–2016 exhibited 88% smaller mean annual utilization distribution sizes ( x ̄ "> 𝑥 ̄ = 22,000 km 2 ) relative to bears that remained on the summer sea ice during the same period. Our findings highlight the impacts of sea ice declines on polar bear space use and the increasing importance of land as an alternative summer refuge.

Alaska↗