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Walden Pond, Massachusetts: Environmental setting and current investigations

Introduction Walden Pond, in Concord, Massachusetts, is famous among lakes because of its unique social history. Walden was the setting for American naturalist Henry David Thoreau's well-known essay 'Walden; or, Life in the Woods,' first published in 1854. Thoreau lived and wrote at Walden Pond from July 1845 to September 1847. In 'Walden,' Thoreau combined highly admired writing on Transcendental philosophy with pioneering observations of aquatic ecology and physical aspects of limnology, the study of lakes. Because Thoreau also defended so effectively the value of living close to nature in the Walden woods, the pond is considered by many to be the birthplace of the American conservation movement. Visitors come from all over the world to the pond, which has been designated a National Historic Landmark, and its fame has resulted in a major fund drive to preserve the surrounding woods. Walden Pond has no surfacewater inflow or outflow, and much of its ground-water contributing area likely is preserved within the Walden Pond Reservation area (fig. 1). Only 15 miles from Boston, the pond is unusually clear and pristine for an urban-area lake. However, point sources of nutrients near the pond, and a large annual visitor attendance, concentrated during the summer when the swimming beach (fig. 2) is open, may contribute a nutrient load sufficient to change the pond environment. The occurrence of nuisance algal species, a recent beach closing, and an awareness of water-quality problems suffered by other ponds in the region raise concerns about the risk of ecological change at Walden Pond. Despite the role of Walden Pond as a cultural and environmental icon, little is known about the pond's ecological features, such as its internal nutrient cycling or the structure of its food web, nor have consistent measurements been made to determine whether these features are changing or are stable. Production rates of aquatic plants in lakes and ponds naturally undergo a slow increase as plant nutrients, organic matter, and soil are leached and eroded from the surrounding watershed. This process is known as eutrophication. The term 'cultural eutrophication' refers to an accelerated form of the natural process in which extra soil and nutrients are derived from people's use of fertilizer, rerouting of surface drainage, and disposal of domestic and industrial waste. Cultural eutrophication can lead to excessive growth of aquatic plants, pond filling by decayed plants and eroded soils, reduced water clarity, and depletion of dissolved oxygen in deep water with subsequent loss of cold-water fish habitat. In order to document the longterm ecological health of Walden Pond, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), working in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Management (MDEM), is investigating factors that could contribute to cultural eutrophication of Walden. Through measurements of mass balance of nutrients and oxygen in the pond's deep water, the investigation will establish a baseline data set on Walden's trophic state, which is a measure of the pond's ability to support plant growth. The baseline data will be used to detect trends and give early warning of trophic changes or trophic response to pond remediation projects. This Fact Sheet provides background information on the environmental setting, limnological features, and cultural eutrophication of Walden Pond, and describes the joint USGS/MDEM study.

Massachusetts

Cattle grazing and its long-term effects on sedge meadows

Most people think that wetlands are temporary, that they fill in by natural processes, and eventually become dry land. Some of these outdated ideas have come from the way that this subject has been covered in introductory textbooks in schools (Gibson, 1996). From these texts, we learned incorrectly that over time a lake fills with sediment or organic matter to become a wetland, which dries out to support shrubs and trees, and eventually it is no longer a wetland (Middleton, 1999; Middleton and others, 2004). These old ideas of how vegetation changes (succession) are no longer accepted. Wetland succession should be thought of as a cycle, with natural disturbance driving the changes, depending on the needs of the species. Succession is not something that changes a wetland into something that is not a wetland (Egler, 1978; van der Valk, 1981; Middleton and others, 1991; Klinger, 1996; Middleton, 1999). As an example of how disturbance changes wetlands, I have studied sedge meadows that have become invaded by shrubs after cattle (Bos sp.) have grazed them, in the Lodi Marsh State Natural Area, Wisconsin. Cattle disturbances allowed shrubs to invade sedge meadows, but the cattle also grazed on the shrubs, which kept them small. After the cows were removed, the plant species changed in the sedge meadow from the original sedges (fig. 1), to sedges mixed with growing small shrubs, and eventually to tall shrubs with very small amounts of sedge, called “shrub carr” (Middleton, 2002a). Even though there has been a succession of plant types, the meadows, which began as wetlands, have remained wetlands. The settlers originally found the sedge meadows to be open “sedge” lands and not shrubby. The settlers cut the sedges by hand to feed the cattle. Whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), though probably not bison (Bison bison), grazed these sedge meadows (Middleton 2002a). Subsequent studies have explored methods to control invasive shrubs to restore the biodiversity of formerly grazed sedge meadows (Middleton, 2002b).

Fact Sheet

Potential hazards from future eruptions in the vicinity of Mount Shasta Volcano, northern California

Mount Shasta has erupted, on the average, at least once per 800 years during the last 10,000 years, and about once per 600 years during the last 4,500 years. The last known eruption occurred about 200 radiocarbon years ago. Eruptions during the last 10,000 years produced lava flows and domes on and around the flanks of Mount Shasta, and pyroclastic flows from summit and flank vents extended as far as 20 km from the summit. Most of these eruptions also produced large mudflows, many of which reached more than several tens of kilometers from Mount Shasta. Future eruptions like those of the past may endanger the communities of Weed, Mount Shasta, McCloud, and Dunsmuir located on or near the flanks of Mount Shasta. This report describes the likely nature of future eruptions and the threat that they present to people and property situated around Mount Shasta; accompanying maps delineate areas likely to be affected during future eruptions in the vicinity of Mount Shasta. Future eruptions will most likely consist of lava flows, domes, and pyroclastic flows. Lava flows and pyroclastic flows may affect low and flat- lying ground almost anywhere within about 20 km of the summit of Mount Shasta, and mudflows may cover valley floors and other low areas as much as several tens of kilometers from the volcano. Mount Shasta is not likely to erupt large volumes of ash in the future; areas subject to the greatest risk from air-fall tephra are located mainly east and within about 50 km of the summit of the volcano.

California

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report

Guidelines for long-term monitoring protocols

Monitoring protocols are detailed study plans that explain how data are to be collected, managed, analyzed, and reported, and are a key component of quality assurance for natural resource monitoring programs. Protocols are necessary to ensure that changes detected by monitoring actually are occurring in nature and not simply a result of measurements taken by different people or in slightly different ways. We developed and present here guidelines for the recommended content and format of monitoring protocols. The National Park Service and United States Geological Survey have adopted these guidelines to assist scientists developing protocols for more than 270 national park units.

Wildlife Society Bulletin

February 2012 workshop jumpstarts the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network

The Mekong River in Southeast Asia travels through a basin rich in natural resources. The river originates on the northern slope of the world's tallest mountains, the Himalaya Range, and then drops elevation quickly through steep mountain gorges, tumbling out of China into Myanmar (Burma) and the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). The precipitous terrain of Lao PDR and Thailand generates interest in the river and its tributaries for hydropower development. The terrain, soils, water, and climate make it one of the world's most biologically rich regions. The Mekong's bounty is again on display in the Mekong River Delta, where rice production has successfully been increased to high levels making Vietnam second only to Thailand as the world's largest rice exporters. At least 800 fish species contribute to the natural resource bounty of the Mekong River and are the basis for one of the world's most productive fisheries that provide the primary protein source to more than 50 million people. Against this backdrop of rich natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working with the consulting firm FISHBIO, colleagues from the international Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute, and a broad contingent of Southeast Asian representatives and partners from abroad to increase knowledge of the Mekong River fisheries and to develop the capacity of permanent residents to investigate and understand these fisheries resources. With the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) region facing the likelihood of significant environmental changes as a result of both human activities and global climate change, enhancing environmental understanding is critical. To encourage cooperation among the LMB scientists and managers in the study of the Mekong River's fisheries, FISHBIO and the USGS, with generous support from the U.S. State Department, hosted a workshop in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in February 2012. Workshop participants were from Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Representatives from the governments, universities, nongovernmental organizations, and the Mekong River Commission discussed current and potential methods and mechanisms of the Mekong Fish Monitoring Network. The goals of the workshop were to determine if the Network and associated databases were of interest and value to the LMB nations, to determine if future fisheries monitoring data would be comparable among the nations, and to establish methods and an organizational structure for collaborating on future monitoring and research. The participants in this international workshop agreed that the Network would be useful but would require additional funding to secure their full participation. The USGS and FISHBIO are collaboratively seeking additional funding to expand research participation and projects in all four LMB nations. If the Network can facilitate cooperation among many fisheries researchers in the LMB, the basin would become a model of cooperative international fishery studies and would increase the understanding of a river basin rich in natural resources.

Phnom Penh

Multi-hazard risk analysis for the U.S. Department of the Interior: An integration of expert elicitation, planning priorities, and geospatial analysis

An integral part of disaster risk management is identifying and prioritizing hazards and their potential impacts in a meaningful way to support risk-reduction planning. There has been considerable use and subsequent criticism of threat prioritization efforts that simply compare likelihoods and consequences of plausible threats. This article summarizes a new mixed-methods and scalable approach for prioritizing risks in a multi-hazard, multi-objective, and multi-criteria organizational context. This approach integrates (1) hazard characterizations using subject-matter-expert (SME) elicitation, (2) expressed preferences in planning priorities provided by emergency managers, and (3) quantitative estimates of asset exposure to hazards using geospatial data and geographic-information-systems (GIS) software. We demonstrate this approach with a case study designed to support multi-hazard mitigation and response planning done by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management, which required a national understanding of the risks posed by 75 natural, technological, and adversarial hazards to DOI managed and administered lands, facilities, people, revenues, and resources. Results demonstrate that hazard priorities vary depending on the asset, scale, and risk-management context, thereby making the case that “one-size-fits-all” hazard rankings have limited utility or relevance to real-world, risk mitigation and response planning. Our results suggest that recognizing the risk-management context provides greater transparency, flexibility, and relevance in comparing threats than traditional likelihood-threat matrices or the use of hazard SMEs to decide for planners which hazard scenarios are emphasized in risk planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Geomorphic effects of large debris flows and flash floods, northern Venezuela, 1999

A rare, high-magnitude storm in northern Venezuela in December 1999 triggered debris flows and flash floods, and caused one of the worst natural disasters in the recorded history of the Americas. Some 15,000 people were killed. The debris flows and floods inundated coastal communities on alluvial fans at the mouths of a coastal mountain drainage network and destroyed property estimated at more than $2 billion. Landslides were abundant and widespread on steep slopes within areas underlain by schist and gneiss from near the coast to slightly over the crest of the mountain range. Some hillsides were entirely denuded by single or coalescing failures, which formed massive debris flows in river channels flowing out onto densely populated alluvial fans at the coast. The massive amount of sediment derived from 24 watersheds along 50 km of the coast during the storm and deposited on alluvial fans and beaches has been estimated at 15 to 20 million m3. Sediment yield for the 1999 storm from the approximately 200 km2 drainage area of watersheds upstream of the alluvial fans was as much as 100,000 m3/km2. Rapid economic development in this dynamic geomorphic environment close to the capital city of Caracas, in combination with a severe rain storm, resulted in the death of approximately 5% of the population (300,000 total prior to the storm) in the northern Venezuelan state of Vargas. ?? 2006 Gebru??der Borntraeger.

Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, Supplementband

The water resources of southeast Iowa

Water is vital in the lives of the people and the economy of any area. In order to utilize this natural resource in the most efficient and beneficial manner, a basic knowledge and understanding of its sources and the occurrence and potential of each source must be gained. To provide this knowledge, the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Iowa Geological Survey compiled this atlas describing the water resources available for development in an 11-county area in southeast Iowa. The report contains information on the availability, quality, and utilization of water from all known sources and the future demands upon the water resources in southeast Iowa. The information is presented to aid water users and other persons searching for and evaluating sources of water in a particular place, and planners and water managers who must consider water resources on a regional basis.

Iowa

Geospatial Technology Strategic Plan 1997-2000

Executive Summary -- Geospatial technology applications have been identified in many U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division (BRD) proposals for grants awarded through internal and partnership programs. Because geospatial data and tools have become more sophisticated, accessible, and easy to use, BRD scientists frequently are using these tools and capabilities to enhance a broad spectrum of research activities. Bruce Babbitt, Secretary of the Interior, has acknowledged--and lauded--the important role of geospatial technology in natural resources management. In his keynote address to more than 5,500 people representing 87 countries at the Environmental Systems Research Institute Annual Conference (May 21, 1996), Secretary Babbitt stated, '. . .GIS [geographic information systems], if properly used, can provide a lot more than sets of data. Used effectively, it can help stakeholders to bring consensus out of conflict. And it can, by providing information, empower the participants to find new solutions to their problems.' This Geospatial Technology Strategic Plan addresses the use and application of geographic information systems, remote sensing, satellite positioning systems, image processing, and telemetry; describes methods of meeting national plans relating to geospatial data development, management, and serving; and provides guidance for sharing expertise and information. Goals are identified along with guidelines that focus on data sharing, training, and technology transfer. To measure success, critical performance indicators are included. The ability of the BRD to use and apply geospatial technology across all disciplines will greatly depend upon its success in transferring the technology to field biologists and researchers. The Geospatial Technology Strategic Planning Development Team coordinated and produced this document in the spirit of this premise. Individual Center and Program managers have the responsibility to implement the Strategic Plan by working within the policy and guidelines stated herein.

Information and Technology Report

Geothermal energy: clean power from the Earth's heat

Societies in the 21st century require enormous amounts of energy to drive the machines of commerce and to sustain the lifestyles that many people have come to expect. Today, most of this energy is derived from oil, natural gas, and coal, supplemented by nuclear power. Local exceptions exist, but oil is by far the most common source of energy worldwide. Oil resources, however, are nonrenewable and concentrated in only a few places around the globe, creating uncertainty in long-term supply for many nations. At the time of the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, about a third of the United States oil supply was imported, mostly from that region. An interruption in the flow of this import disrupted nearly every citizen’s daily life, as well as the Nation’s economy. In response, the Federal Government launched substantial programs to accelerate development of means to increasingly harness “alternative energies”—primarily biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind. The new emphasis on simultaneously pursuing development of several sources of energy recognized the timeless wisdom found in the proverb of “not putting all eggs in one basket.” This book helps explain the role that geothermal resources can play in helping promote such diversity and in satisfying our Nation’s vast energy needs as we enter a new millennium. For centuries, people have enjoyed the benefits of geothermal energy available at hot springs, but it is only through technological advances made during the 20th century that we can tap this energy source in the subsurface and use it in a variety of ways, including the generation of electricity. Geothermal resources are simply exploitable concentrations of the Earth’s natural heat (thermal energy). The Earth is a bountiful source of thermal energy, continuously producing heat at depth, primarily by the decay of naturally occurring radioactive isotopes—principally of uranium, thorium, and potassium—that occur in small amounts in all rocks. This heat then rises to and through the Earth’s surface, where it escapes into the atmosphere. The amount of heat that flows annually from the Earth into the atmosphere is enormous—equivalent to ten times the annual energy consumption of the United States and more than that needed to power all nations of the world, if it could be fully harnessed. Even if only 1 percent of the thermal energy contained within the uppermost 10 kilometers of our planet could be tapped, this amount would be 500 times that contained in all oil and gas resources of the world. How might we benefit from this vast amount of thermal energy beneath our feet? Where, by what means, and how much of the Earth’s natural heat can be usefully harnessed? These are especially important questions to contemplate, because global population is expected to soon exceed seven billion and many scientists believe that the world’s fossilfuel resources may be substantially depleted within this century. Faced with such prospects, both the public and private sectors are working toward more fully utilizing the Earth’s abundant thermal energy and other alternative energy resources. A skeptic might question the wisdom of devoting much national effort to geothermal energy development, especially because many experts think that geothermal heat can contribute at most about 10 percent to the Nation’s energy supply using current technologies. However, ongoing advances in exploration and heat-extraction technologies are improving our ability to use the resource and may substantially increase the geothermal contribution to the Nation’s energy supply. In an attempt to help national planners and average citizens alike understand the nature and energy potential of geothermal resources, this book (1) describes the distribution and nature of geothermal energy, (2) reviews the common types of geothermal systems that provide useful energy with current technology, (3) considers potential geothermal resources that might someday be tapped with developing technologies, and (4) summarizes the role of earth-science information in assessing and harnessing geothermal resources wherever they occur worldwide. The predecessor to this book (Tapping the Earth’s Natural Heat, U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1125, published in 1994) summarized the situation in the early 1990s. In an effort to support national energy planners, this new circular incorporates more recent advances in geothermal science and technology.

Circular

Tools for measuring, modelling, and valuing ecosystem services: guidance for Key Biodiversity Areas, natural World Heritage sites, and protected areas

Increasing interest in measuring, modelling and valuing ecosystem services (ES), the benefits that ecosystems provide to people, has resulted in the development of an array of ES assessment tools in recent years. Selecting an appropriate tool for measuring and modelling ES can be challenging. This document provides guidance for practitioners on existing tools that can be applied to measure or model ES provided by important sites for biodiversity and nature conservation, including Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), natural World Heritage sites (WHS), and protected areas (PAs). Selecting an appropriate tool requires identifying the specific question being addressed, what sorts of results or outputs are required, and consideration of practical factors such as the level of expertise, time and data required for applying any given tool. This guide builds on existing reviews of ES assessment tools, but has an explicit focus on assessing ES for sites of importance for biodiversity and nature conservation.

Report

Potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the last 10,000 years. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State\'s citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. The potentially more hazardous eruptions in the State are those that involve explosive eruption of large volumes of silicic magma. Such eruptions could occur at vents in as many as four areas in California. They could eject pumice high into the atmosphere above the volcano, produce destructive blasts, avalanches, or pyroclastic flows that reach distances of tens of kilometers from a vent, and produce mudflows and floods that reach to distances of hundreds of kilometers. Smaller eruptions produce similar, but less severe and less extensive, phenomena. Hazards are greatest close to a volcanic vent; the slopes on or near a volcano, and valleys leading away from it, are affected most often and most severely by such eruptions. In general, risk from volcanic phenomena decreases with increasing distance from a vent and, for most flowage processes, with increasing height above valley floors or fan surfaces. Tephra (ash) from explosive eruptions can affect wide areas downwind from a vent. In California, prevailing winds cause the 180-degree sector east of the volcano to be affected most often and most severely. Risk to life from ashfall decreases rapidly with increasing distance from a vent, but thin deposits of ash could disrupt communication, transportation, and utility systems at great distances, and over wide regions, in eastern California and adjacent states. Volcanic eruptions are certain to occur in California in the future and an be neither prevented nor stopped, but actions can be taken to limit damage from them. Reduction of risk to life and property can be effected by avoiding threatened areas and by taking protective measures to reduce the effects when and where vulnerable areas cannot be avoided. Monitoring of volcanic precursors generally can identify the locality of impending volcanic activity, even though it often does not pinpoint the nature or timing of an eruption, or even its certainty. Hazard-zonation maps can then be used to guide decisions regarding evacuation and other response activities. Thus, effective monitoring of volcanoes in the State, combined with preparation of contingency plans to deal with future eruptions, can help reduce risk to lives and property.

California

Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme—A transdisciplinary approach to address the challenge of distributed volcanism in an urban environment

The Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) Research Programme was launched in 2008 to address the challenges associated with monogenetic volcanism in an urban setting and to enhance volcanic risk management in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland in Aotearoa New Zealand. It is a multi-agency, increasingly transdisciplinary (defined here as research that transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries by integrating diverse types of knowledge, perspectives, and methods from academic and non-academic participants to create novel solutions to complex problems), and collaborative research program jointly led by Waipapa Taumata Rau University of Auckland and Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ; formerly GNS Science), with core funding from Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC; formerly the Earthquake Commission, EQC) and Te Kaunihera o Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland Council (AC). The primary research focus of DEVORA is to investigate the geologic history, volcanic hazards, and risk posed by the basaltic intraplate Auckland Volcanic Field. Disruption from ash fall and gas from other Aotearoa New Zealand volcanoes is also considered. DEVORA’s work to explore exposure and vulnerability in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland is also useful for assessing risks from other non-volcanic natural hazards, such as seismic and tsunami hazards. The greater Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland region has an ethnically and socio-economically diverse population of approximately 1.7 million, representing about one-third of the Aotearoa New Zealand population, and hosts critical infrastructure of national significance. The size and nature of the populace, consequential economic base, and important infrastructure within Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland mean that the effects of a volcanic eruption would be felt nationally, including through the disruption of air travel to Aotearoa New Zealand. The hazards from such an eruption could potentially affect hundreds of thousands of people, businesses, and lifelines (critical infrastructure). A considerable challenge for emergency and risk managers is the monogenetic nature of the volcanic field. It is not known where or when the next eruption will occur, how much warning we may get before an eruption, nor how an eruption and its effects might unfold. In this contribution, we highlight the concept and collaborative intent of the DEVORA Programme and show how it has evolved over the 16 years since its inception. We describe how DEVORA has unified more than 100 researchers (including more than 50 graduate students) and numerous stakeholders to address key issues facing Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland and describe how research findings are being implemented into policy and communicated to stakeholder agencies and the public. We also illustrate the broader influence of the DEVORA Programme and provide some learnings that might benefit others embarking on similar integrated projects, especially those focused on distributed volcanism in and near populated areas.

Auckland

The geologic story of Yellowstone National Park

In the aftermath of the Civil War, the United States expanded the exploration of her western frontiers to gain a measure of the vast lands and natural resources in the region now occupied by our Rocky Mountain States. As part of this effort, the Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories was organized within the Department of the Interior, and staffed by a group of hardy, pioneering scientists under the leadership of geologist F. V. Hayden. During the summer of 1871, these men, accompanied by photographer William H. Jackson and artist Thomas Moran, made a reconnaissance geological study of the legendary and mysterious 'Yellowstone Wonderland' in remote northwestern Wyoming Territory. The scientific reports and illustrations prepared by Hayden and his colleagues, supplementing the startling accounts that had been published by members of the famous Washburn-Doane Expedition a year earlier, erased all doubts that this unique land was eminently worthy of being set aside 'for the benefit and enjoyment of the people.' By Act of Congress on March 1, 1872, our first National Park was established. During the past century, 50 million people have toured Yellowstone National Park, marveling at its never-ending display of natural wonders. No doubt many have paused to wonder about the origin of these unusual and complex geological features - a question, needless to say, that has intrigued and challenged scientists from the very first days of the Hayden Survey. During the past decade a group of U. S. Geological Survey scientists, in cooperation with the National Park Service and aided by the interest of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in remote sensing of the geologic phenomena, has been probing the depths and farthest corners of the Park seeking more of the answers. Some of the results of this work, and those of earlier studies, are described in this book to provide a better understanding and enjoyment of this great National Park.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter

PopEquus: a predictive modeling tool to support management decisions for free-roaming horse populations

Feral horse ( Equus caballus ) population management is a challenging problem around the world because populations often exhibit density-independent growth, can exert negative ecological effects on ecosystems, and require great cost to be managed. However, strong value-based connections between people and horses cause contention around management decisions. To help make informed decisions, natural resource managers might benefit from more detailed understanding of how horse management alternatives, including combinations of removals and fertility control methods, could achieve objectives of sustainable, multiple-use ecosystems while minimizing overall horse handling and fiscal costs. Here, we describe a modeling tool that simulates horse management alternatives and estimates trade-offs in predicted metrics related to population size, animal handling, and direct costs of management. The model considers six management actions for populations (removals for adoption or long-term holding; fertility control treatment with three vaccines, intrauterine devices, and mare sterilization), used alone or in combination. We simulated 19 alternative management scenarios at 2-, 3-, and 4-year management return intervals and identified efficiency frontiers among alternatives for trade-offs between predicted population size and six management metrics. Our analysis identified multiple alternatives that could maintain populations within target population size ranges, but some alternatives (e.g., removal and mare sterilization, removal and GonaCon treatment) performed better at minimizing overall animal handling requirements and management costs. Cost savings increased under alternatives with more effective, longer lasting fertility control techniques over longer management intervals compared with alternatives with less-effective, shorter lasting fertility control techniques. We built a user-friendly website application, PopEquus , that decision makers and interested individuals can use to simulate management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among management and cost metrics. Our results and website application provide quantitative trade-off tools for horse population management decisions and can help support value-based management decisions for wild or feral horse populations and ecosystems at local and regional scales around the world.

Ecosphere

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast