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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

California↗
USGS2013

Woodland dynamics at the northern range periphery: A challenge for protected area management in a changing world

Managers of protected natural areas increasingly are confronted with novel ecological conditions and conflicting objectives to preserve the past while fostering resilience for an uncertain future. This dilemma may be pronounced at range peripheries where rates of change are accelerated and ongoing invasions often are perceived as threats to local ecosystems. We provide an example from City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO) in southern Idaho, positioned at the northern range periphery of pinyon-juniper (P-J) woodland. Reserve managers are concerned about P-J woodland encroachment into adjacent sagebrush steppe, but the rates and biophysical variability of encroachment are not well documented and management options are not well understood. We quantified the rate and extent of woodland change between 1950 and 2009 based on a random sample of aerial photo interpretation plots distributed across biophysical gradients. Our study revealed that woodland cover remained at approximately 20% of the study area over the 59-year period. In the absence of disturbance, P-J woodlands exhibited the highest rate of increase among vegetation types at 0.37% yr −1 . Overall, late-successional P-J stands increased in area by over 100% through the process of densification (infilling). However, wildfires during the period resulted in a net decrease of woody evergreen vegetation, particularly among early and mid-successional P-J stands. Elevated wildfire risk associated with expanding novel annual grasslands and drought is likely to continue to be a fundamental driver of change in CIRO woodlands. Because P-J woodlands contribute to regional biodiversity and may contract at trailing edges with global warming, CIRO may become important to P-J woodland conservation in the future. Our study provides a widely applicable toolset for assessing woodland ecotone dynamics that can help managers reconcile the competing demands to maintain historical fidelity and contribute meaningfully to the U.S. protected area network in a future with novel, no-analog ecosystems.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

Threatened and endangered subspecies with vulnerable ecological traits Also have high susceptibility to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Fatty acid composition at the base of aquatic food webs is influenced by habitat type and watershed land use

Spatial variation in food resources strongly influences many aspects of aquatic consumer ecology. Although large-scale controls over spatial variation in many aspects of food resources are well known, others have received little study. Here we investigated variation in the fatty acid (FA) composition of seston and primary consumers within (i.e., among habitats) and among tributary systems of Lake Michigan, USA. FA composition of food is important because all metazoans require certain FAs for proper growth and development that cannot be produced de novo, including many polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Here we sampled three habitat types (river, rivermouth and nearshore zone) in 11 tributaries of Lake Michigan to assess the amount of FA in seston and primary consumers of seston. We hypothesize that among-system and among-habitat variation in FAs at the base of food webs would be related to algal production, which in turn is influenced by three land cover characteristics: 1) combined agriculture and urban lands (an indication of anthropogenic nutrient inputs that fuel algal production), 2) the proportion of surface waters (an indication of water residence times that allow algal producers to accumulate) and 3) the extent of riparian forested buffers (an indication of stream shading that reduces algal production). Of these three land cover characteristics, only intense land use appeared to strongly related to seston and consumer FA and this effect was only strong in rivermouth and nearshore lake sites. River seston and consumer FA composition was highly variable, but that variation does not appear to be driven by the watershed land cover characteristics investigated here. Whether the spatial variation in FA content at the base of these food webs significantly influences the production of economically important species higher in the food web should be a focus of future research.

Michigan;Wisconsin↗
USGS2013

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

California↗
USGS2013

A network extension of species occupancy models in a patchy environment applied to the Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus canorus )

A central challenge of conservation biology is using limited data to predict rare species occurrence and identify conservation areas that play a disproportionate role in regional persistence. Where species occupy discrete patches in a landscape, such predictions require data about environmental quality of individual patches and the connectivity among high quality patches. We present a novel extension to species occupancy modeling that blends traditionalpredictions of individual patch environmental quality with network analysis to estimate connectivity characteristics using limited survey data. We demonstrate this approach using environmental and geospatial attributes to predict observed occupancy patterns of the Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus (= Bufo) canorus ) across >2,500 meadows in Yosemite National Park (USA). A. canorus , a Federal Proposed Species, breeds in shallow water associated with meadows. Our generalized linear model (GLM) accurately predicted ~84% of true presence-absence data on a subset of data withheld for testing. The predicted environmental quality of each meadow was iteratively ‘boosted’ by the quality of neighbors within dispersal distance. We used this park-wide meadow connectivity network to estimate the relative influence of an individual Meadow’s ‘environmental quality’ versus its ‘network quality’ to predict: a) clusters of high quality breeding meadows potentially linked by dispersal, b) breeding meadows with high environmental quality that are isolated from other such meadows, c) breeding meadows with lower environmental quality where long-term persistence may critically depend on the network neighborhood, and d) breeding meadows with the biggest impact on park-wide breeding patterns. Combined with targeted data on dispersal, genetics, disease, and other potential stressors, these results can guide designation of core conservation areas for A. canorus in Yosemite National Park.

California↗
USGS2013

Baseline monitoring of the western Arctic Ocean estimates 20% of the Canadian Basin surface waters are undersaturated with respect to aragonite

Marine surface waters are being acidified due to uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, resulting in surface ocean areas of undersaturation with respect to carbonate minerals, including aragonite. In the Arctic Ocean, acidification is expected to occur at an accelerated rate with respect to the global oceans, but a paucity of baseline data has limited our understanding of the extent of Arctic undersaturation and of regional variations in rates and causes. The lack of data has also hindered refinement of models aimed at projecting future trends of ocean acidification. Here, based on more than 34,000 data records collected in 2010 and 2011, we establish a baseline of inorganic carbon data (pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and aragonite saturation index) for the western Arctic Ocean. This data set documents aragonite undersaturation in ~20% of the surface waters of the combined Canada and Makarov basins, an area characterized by recent acceleration of sea ice loss. Conservative tracer studies using stable oxygen isotopic data from 307 sites show that while the entire surface of this area receives abundant freshwater from meteoric sources, freshwater from sea ice melt is most closely linked to the areas of carbonate mineral undersaturation. These data link the Arctic Ocean’s largest area of aragonite undersaturation to sea ice melt and atmospheric CO 2 absorption in areas of low buffering capacity. Some relatively supersaturated areas can be linked to localized biological activity. Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Aspects of embryonic and larval development in bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix

As bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp H. molitrix (the bigheaded carps) are poised to enter the Laurentian Great Lakes and potentially damage the region’s economically important fishery, information on developmental rates and behaviors of carps is critical to assessing their ability to establish sustainable populations within the Great Lakes basin. In laboratory experiments, the embryonic and larval developmental rates, size, and behaviors of bigheaded carp were tracked at two temperature treatments, one “cold” and one “warm”. Developmental rates were computed using previously described stages of development and the cumulative thermal unit method. Both species have similar thermal requirements, with a minimum developmental temperature for embryonic stages of 12.1° C for silver carp and 12.9° C for bighead carp, and 13.3° C for silver carp larval stages and 13.4° C for bighead carp larval stages. Egg size differed among species and temperature treatments, as egg size was larger in bighead carp, and “warm" temperature treatments. The larvae started robust upwards vertical swimming immediately after hatching, interspersed with intervals of sinking. Vertical swimming tubes were used to measure water column distribution, and ascent and descent rates of vertically swimming fish. Water column distribution and ascent and descent rates changed with ontogeny. Water column distribution also showed some diel periodicity. Developmental rates, size, and behaviors contribute to the drift distance needed to fulfill the early life history requirements of bigheaded carps and can be used in conjunction with transport information to assess invasibility of a river.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Mapping monkeypox transmission risk through time and space in the Congo Basin

Monkeypox is a major public health concern in the Congo Basin area, with changing patterns of human case occurrences reported in recent years. Whether this trend results from better surveillance and detection methods, reduced proportions of vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated human populations, or changing environmental conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to examine potential correlations between environment and transmission of monkeypox events in the Congo Basin. We created ecological niche models based on human cases reported in the Congo Basin by the World Health Organization at the end of the smallpox eradication campaign, in relation to remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index datasets from the same time period. These models predicted independent spatial subsets of monkeypox occurrences with high confidence; models were then projected onto parallel environmental datasets for the 2000s to create present-day monkeypox suitability maps. Recent trends in human monkeypox infection are associated with broad environmental changes across the Congo Basin. Our results demonstrate that ecological niche models provide useful tools for identification of areas suitable for transmission, even for poorly-known diseases like monkeypox.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl 2 /L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus . We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans . Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Inferring the relative resilience of alternative states

Ecological systems may occur in alternative states that differ in ecological structures, functions and processes. Resilience is the measure of disturbance an ecological system can absorb before changing states. However, how the intrinsic structures and processes of systems that characterize their states affects their resilience remains unclear. We analyzed time series of phytoplankton communities at three sites in a floodplain in central Spain to assess the dominant frequencies or “temporal scales” in community dynamics and compared the patterns between a wet and a dry alternative state. The identified frequencies and cross-scale structures are expected to arise from positive feedbacks that are thought to reinforce processes in alternative states of ecological systems and regulate emergent phenomena such as resilience. Our analyses show a higher species richness and diversity but lower evenness in the dry state. Time series modeling revealed a decrease in the importance of short-term variability in the communities, suggesting that community dynamics slowed down in the dry relative to the wet state. The number of temporal scales at which community dynamics manifested, and the explanatory power of time series models, was lower in the dry state. The higher diversity, reduced number of temporal scales and the lower explanatory power of time series models suggest that species dynamics tended to be more stochastic in the dry state. From a resilience perspective our results highlight a paradox: increasing species richness may not necessarily enhance resilience. The loss of cross-scale structure (i.e. the lower number of temporal scales) in community dynamics across sites suggests that resilience erodes during drought. Phytoplankton communities in the dry state are therefore likely less resilient than in the wet state. Our case study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess attributes that mediate resilience. The approach is useful for assessing resilience of alternative states across ecological and other complex systems.

Las Tablas de Daimiel floodplain wetland↗
USGS2013

Red-backed vole brain promotes highly efficient in vitro amplification of abnormal prion protein from macaque and human brains infected with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease agent.

Rapid antemortem tests to detect individuals with transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) would contribute to public health. We investigated a technique known as protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) to amplify abnormal prion protein (PrP TSE ) from highly diluted variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD)-infected human and macaque brain homogenates, seeking to improve the rapid detection of PrP TSE in tissues and blood. Macaque vCJD PrP TSE did not amplify using normal macaque brain homogenate as substrate (intraspecies PMCA). Next, we tested interspecies PMCA with normal brain homogenate of the southern red-backed vole (RBV), a close relative of the bank vole, seeded with macaque vCJD PrP TSE . The RBV has a natural polymorphism at residue 170 of the PrP-encoding gene (N/N, S/S, and S/N). We investigated the effect of this polymorphism on amplification of human and macaque vCJD PrP TSE . Meadow vole brain (170N/N PrP genotype) was also included in the panel of substrates tested. Both humans and macaques have the same 170S/S PrP genotype. Macaque PrP TSE was best amplified with RBV 170S/S brain, although 170N/N and 170S/N were also competent substrates, while meadow vole brain was a poor substrate. In contrast, human PrP TSE demonstrated a striking narrow selectivity for PMCA substrate and was successfully amplified only with RBV 170S/S brain. These observations suggest that macaque PrP TSE was more permissive than human PrP TSE in selecting the competent RBV substrate. RBV 170S/S brain was used to assess the sensitivity of PMCA with PrP TSE from brains of humans and macaques with vCJD. PrP TSE signals were reproducibly detected by Western blot in dilutions through 10 -12 of vCJD-infected 10% brain homogenates. This is the first report showing PrP TSE from vCJD-infected human and macaque brains efficiently amplified with RBV brain as the substrate. Based on our estimates, PMCA showed a sensitivity that might be sufficient to detect PrP TSE in vCJD-infected human and macaque blood.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Detection of salt marsh vegetation stress and recovery after the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in Barataria Bay, Gulf of Mexico using AVIRIS data

The British Petroleum Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico was the biggest oil spill in US history. To assess the impact of the oil spill on the saltmarsh plant community, we examined Advanced Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data flown over Barataria Bay, Louisiana in September 2010 and August 2011. Oil contamination was mapped using oil absorption features in pixel spectra and used to examine impact of oil along the oiled shorelines. Results showed that vegetation stress was restricted to the tidal zone extending 14 m inland from the shoreline in September 2010. Four indexes of plant stress and three indexes of canopy water content all consistently showed that stress was highest in pixels next to the shoreline and decreased with increasing distance from the shoreline. Index values along the oiled shoreline were significantly lower than those along the oil-free shoreline. Regression of index values with respect to distance from oil showed that in 2011, index values were no longer correlated with proximity to oil suggesting that the marsh was on its way to recovery. Change detection between the two dates showed that areas denuded of vegetation after the oil impact experienced varying degrees of re-vegetation in the following year. This recovery was poorest in the first three pixels adjacent to the shoreline. This study illustrates the usefulness of high spatial resolution airborne imaging spectroscopy to map actual locations where oil from the spill reached the shore and then to assess its impacts on the plant community. We demonstrate that post-oiling trends in terms of plant health and mortality could be detected and monitored, including recovery of these saltmarsh meadows one year after the oil spill.

Louisiana↗
USGS2013

Spatial ecological processes and local factors predict the distribution and abundance of spawning by steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) across a complex riverscape

Processes that influence habitat selection in landscapes involve the interaction of habitat composition and configuration and are particularly important for species with complex life cycles. We assessed the relative influence of landscape spatial processes and local habitat characteristics on patterns in the distribution and abundance of spawning steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a threatened salmonid fish, across ~15,000 stream km in the John Day River basin, Oregon, USA. We used hurdle regression and a multi-model information theoretic approach to identify the relative importance of covariates representing key aspects of the steelhead life cycle (e.g., site access, spawning habitat quality, juvenile survival) at two spatial scales: within 2-km long survey reaches (local sites) and ecological neighborhoods (5 km) surrounding the local sites. Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion, models that included covariates describing ecological neighborhoods provided the best description of the distribution and abundance of steelhead spawning given the data. Among these covariates, our representation of offspring survival (growing-season-degree-days, °C) had the strongest effect size (7x) relative to other predictors. Predictive performances of model-averaged composite and neighborhood-only models were better than a site-only model based on both occurrence (percentage of sites correctly classified = 0.80±0.03 SD, 0.78±0.02 vs. 0.62±0.05, respectively) and counts (root mean square error = 3.37, 3.93 vs. 5.57, respectively). The importance of both temperature and stream flow for steelhead spawning suggest this species may be highly sensitive to impacts of land and water uses, and to projected climate impacts in the region and that landscape context, complementation, and connectivity will drive how this species responds to future environments.

Oregon↗
USGS2013

Comparing bacterial community composition between healthy and white plague-like disease states in Orbicella annularis using PhyloChip™ G3 microarrays

Coral disease is a global problem. Diseases are typically named or described based on macroscopic changes, but broad signs of coral distress such as tissue loss or discoloration are unlikely to be specific to a particular pathogen. For example, there appear to be multiple diseases that manifest the rapid tissue loss that characterizes ‘white plague.’ PhyloChip™ G3 microarrays were used to compare the bacterial community composition of both healthy and white plague-like diseased corals. Samples of lobed star coral ( Orbicella annularis , formerly of the genus Montastraea [1] ) were collected from two geographically distinct areas, Dry Tortugas National Park and Virgin Islands National Park, to determine if there were biogeographic differences between the diseases. In fact, all diseased samples clustered together, however there was no consistent link to Aurantimonas coralicida , which has been described as the causative agent of white plague type II. The microarrays revealed a large amount of bacterial heterogeneity within the healthy corals and less diversity in the diseased corals. Gram-positive bacterial groups (Actinobacteria, Firmicutes) comprised a greater proportion of the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) unique to healthy samples. Diseased samples were enriched in OTUs from the families Corynebacteriaceae, Lachnospiraceae, Rhodobacteraceae, and Streptococcaceae. Much previous coral disease work has used clone libraries, which seem to be methodologically biased toward recovery of Gram-negative bacterial sequences and may therefore have missed the importance of Gram-positive groups. The PhyloChip™ data presented here provide a broader characterization of the bacterial community changes that occur within Orbicella annularis during the shift from a healthy to diseased state.

Dry Tortugas National Park, St. John, Virgin Islan↗
USGS2013

An integrated model of environmental effects on growth, carbohydrate balance, and mortality of Pinus ponderosa forests in the southern Rocky Mountains

Climate-induced tree mortality is an increasing concern for forest managers around the world. We used a coupled hydrologic and ecosystem carbon cycling model to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on productivity and survival of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ). Model predictions were evaluated using observations of productivity and survival for three ponderosa pine stands located across an 800 m elevation gradient in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, during a 10-year period that ended in a severe drought and extensive tree mortality at the lowest elevation site. We demonstrate the utility of a relatively simple representation of declines in non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) as an approach for estimating patterns of ponderosa pine vulnerability to drought and the likelihood of survival along an elevation gradient. We assess the sensitivity of simulated net primary production, NSC storage dynamics, and mortality to site climate and soil characteristics as well as uncertainty in the allocation of carbon to the NSC pool. For a fairly wide set of assumptions, the model estimates captured elevational gradients and temporal patterns in growth and biomass. Model results that best predict mortality risk also yield productivity, leaf area, and biomass estimates that are qualitatively consistent with observations across the sites. Using this constrained set of parameters, we found that productivity and likelihood of survival were equally dependent on elevation-driven variation in temperature and precipitation. Our results demonstrate the potential for a coupled hydrology-ecosystem carbon cycling model that includes a simple model of NSC dynamics to predict drought-related mortality. Given that increases in temperature and in the frequency and severity of drought are predicted for a broad range of ponderosa pine and other western North America conifer forest habitats, the model potentially has broad utility for assessing ecosystem vulnerabilities.

Jemez Mountains, Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2013

Evidence of territoriality and species interactions from spatial point-pattern analyses of subarctic-nesting geese

Quantifying spatial patterns of bird nests and nest fate provides insights into processes influencing a species’ distribution. At Cape Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, recent declines in breeding Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese ( Branta canadensis interior ) has coincided with increasing populations of nesting lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) and Ross’s geese ( Chen rossii ). We conducted a spatial analysis of point patterns using Canada goose nest locations and nest fate, and lesser snow goose nest locations at two study areas in northern Manitoba with different densities and temporal durations of sympatric nesting Canada and lesser snow geese. Specifically, we assessed (1) whether Canada geese exhibited territoriality and at what scale and nest density; and (2) whether spatial patterns of Canada goose nest fate were associated with the density of nesting lesser snow geese as predicted by the protective-association hypothesis. Between 2001 and 2007, our data suggest that Canada geese were territorial at the scale of nearest neighbors, but were aggregated when considering overall density of conspecifics at slightly broader spatial scales. The spatial distribution of nest fates indicated that lesser snow goose nest proximity and density likely influence Canada goose nest fate. Our analyses of spatial point patterns suggested that continued changes in the distribution and abundance of breeding lesser snow geese on the Hudson Bay Lowlands may have impacts on the reproductive performance of Canada geese, and subsequently the spatial distribution of Canada goose nests.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

PLoS ONE↗