SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Natural Resource Modeling”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

USGS2014

A previously unrecognized path of early Holocene base flow and elevated discharge from Lake Minong to Lake Chippewa across eastern Upper Michigan

It has long been hypothesized that flux of fresh meltwater from glacial Lake Minong in North America's Superior Basin to the North Atlantic Ocean triggered rapid climatic shifts during the early Holocene. The spatial context of recent support for this idea demands a reevaluation of the exit point of meltwater from the Superior Basin. We used ground penetrating radar (GPR), foundation borings from six highway bridges, a GIS model of surface topography, geologic maps, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service soils maps, and well logs to investigate the possible linkage of Lake Minong with Lake Chippewa in the Lake Michigan Basin across eastern Upper Michigan. GPR suggests that a connecting channel lies buried beneath the present interlake divide at Danaher. A single optical age hints that the channel aggraded to 225 m as elevated receipt of Lake Agassiz meltwater in the Superior Basin began to wane <10.6 ka. The large supply of sediment required to accommodate aggradation was immediately available at the channel's edge in the littoral shelves of abandoned Lake Algonquin and in distal parts of post-Algonquin fans. As discharge decreased further, the aggraded channel floor was quickly breached and interbasin flow to Lake Chippewa was restored. Basal radiocarbon ages on wood from small lakes along the discharge path and a GIS model of Minong's shoreline are consistent with another transgression of Minong after ca. 9.5 ka. At the peak of the latter transgression, the southeastern rim of the Superior Basin (Nadoway Drift Barrier) failed, ending Lake Minong. Upon Minong's final drop, aggradational sediments were deposited at Danaher, infilling the prior breach.

Michigan↗

USGS1983

Platte River Forum for the Future: workshop model documentation

The Platte River Forum for the Future (PRFF) is an effort by the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission (NNRC) to bring together representatives of interests and agencies concerned with management of the Platte River and, assisted by various computer technologies, to reach some degree of agreement on the “best uses” of the remaining waters of the Platte. Simulation modeling is being used in this effort as a focal point for developing a common understanding of the behavior of the Platte River system, synthesizing existing information, identifying additional needed information, and analyzing the potential consequences of various management alternatives. The NNRC initiated the project in August 1982 by convening a workshop for interested parties in Grand Island, Nebraska. This workshop was devoted to construction of a preliminary simulation model describing the Platte River system. A group of facilitators/modelers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) assisted participants in translating their understanding of the Platte River into the framework of the model. In October 1982, FWS personnel began a process of training several people from Nebraska in the use of the model. At that time, minor revisions and corrections were made in the model and various development scenarios were prepared for discussion with participants at a second workshop, which was held in early November 1982. The purpose of this report is to document the status of the PRFF simulation model as of the end of the November 1982 meeting. We emphasize that the intent is not to describe a final product. Except for minor revisions and correction of obvious errors, the model described herein is that which existed at the end of the August workshop. The model contains the foundation for a comprehensive aid to decisionmakers, but at this time it is preliminary in nature, needing refinement and verification before it can be truly useful in analyzing management alternatives. The purpose of this report is to provide a solid foundation for that important future work. The report is divided into three basic parts. The first is a brief overview of the various components of the model and how they fit together. It is intended for those who are not particularly interested in the details of model formulation. The second is a detailed discussion of the logic, assumptions, equations, and data used in constructing the model. This detailed description is also referenced to specific sections of the third part, which is a set of appendices containing listings of the computer code as it presently exists.

Nebraska↗

USGS2001

Evaluating the effects of urbanization and land-use planning using ground-water and surface-water models

Why are the effects of urbanization a concern? As the city of Middleton, Wisconsin, and its surroundings continue to develop, the Pheasant Branch watershed (fig.l) is expected to undergo urbanization. For the downstream city of Middleton, urbanization in the watershed can mean increased flood peaks, water volume and pollutant loads. More subtly, it may also reduce water that sustains the ground-water system (called "recharge") and adversely affect downstream ecosystems that depend on ground water such as the Pheasant Branch Springs (hereafter referred to as the Springs). The relation of stormwater runoff and reduced ground-water recharge is complex because the surface-water system is coupled to the underlying ground-water system. In many cases there is movement of water from one system to the other that varies seasonally or daily depending on changing conditions. Therefore, it is difficult to reliably determine the effects of urbanization on stream baseflow and spring flows without rigorous investigation. Moreover, mitigating adverse effects after development has occurred can be expensive and administratively difficult. Overlying these concerns are issues such as stewardship of the resource, the rights of the public, and land owners' rights both of those developing their land and those whose land is affected by this development. With the often- contradictory goals, a scientific basis for assessing effects of urbanization and effectiveness of mitigation measures helps ensure fair and constructive decision-making. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Middleton and Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, completed a study that helps address these issues through modeling of the hydrologic system. This Fact Sheet discusses the results of this work.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a long-term research program to meet critical challenges in wind erosion research and management in the United States. The Network has three aims: (1) provide data to support understanding of basic aeolian processes across land use types, land cover types, and management practices, (2) support development and application of models to assess wind erosion and dust emission and their impacts on human and environmental systems, and (3) encourage collaboration among the aeolian research community and resource managers for the transfer of wind erosion technologies. The Network currently consists of thirteen intensively instrumented sites providing measurements of aeolian sediment transport rates, meteorological conditions, and soil and vegetation properties that influence wind erosion. Network sites are located across rangelands, croplands, and deserts of the western US. In support of Network activities, http://winderosionnetwork.org was developed as a portal for information about the Network, providing site descriptions, measurement protocols, and data visualization tools to facilitate collaboration with scientists and managers interested in the Network and accessing Network products. The Network provides a mechanism for engaging national and international partners in a wind erosion research program that addresses the need for improved understanding and prediction of aeolian processes across complex and diverse land use types and management practices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Don’t Let Negatives Hold You Back: Accounting for Underlying Physics and Natural Distributions of Hydrothermal Systems When Selecting Negative Training Sites Leads to Better Machine Learning Predictions

Selecting negative training sites is an important challenge to resolve when utilizing machine learning (ML) for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability because ideal models would discriminate between hydrothermal systems (positives) and all types of locations without hydrothermal systems (negatives). The Nevada Machine Learning project (NVML) fit an artificial neural network to identify areas favorable for hydrothermal systems by selecting 62 negative sites where the research team had confidence that no hydrothermal resource exists. Herein, we compare the implications of the expert selection of negatives (i.e., the NVML strategy) with a random sample strategy, where it is assumed that areas outside the favorable structural ellipses defined by NVML are negative. Because hydrothermal systems are sparse, it is highly probable that, in the absence of a favorable geological structure, hydrothermal favorability is low. We compare three training strategies: 1) the positive and negative labeled examples from NVML; 2) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives in equal frequency as NVML; and 3) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives reflecting the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems relative to the total area. We apply these training strategies to the NVML feature data (input data) using two ML algorithms (XGBoost and logistic regression) to create six favorability maps for hydrothermal resources. When accounting for the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems, we find that XGBoost performs better than the NVML neural network and its negatives. Model validation was less reliable using F1 scores, a common performance metric, than comparing probability estimates at known positives, likely because of the extreme natural class imbalance and the lack of negatively labeled sites. This work demonstrates that expert selection of negatives for training in NVML likely imparted modeling bias. Accounting for the sparsity of hydrothermal systems and all the types of locations without hydrothermal systems allows us to create better models for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions↗

USGS2018

AMModels: An R package for storing models, data, and metadata to facilitate adaptive management

Agencies are increasingly called upon to implement their natural resource management programs within an adaptive management (AM) framework. This article provides the background and motivation for the R package, AMModels . AMModels was developed under R version 3.2.2. The overall goal of AMModels is simple: To codify knowledge in the form of models and to store it, along with models generated from numerous analyses and datasets that may come our way, so that it can be used or recalled in the future. AMModels facilitates this process by storing all models and datasets in a single object that can be saved to an .RData file and routinely augmented to track changes in knowledge through time. Through this process, AMModels allows the capture, development, sharing, and use of knowledge that may help organizations achieve their mission. While AMModels was designed to facilitate adaptive management, its utility is far more general. Many R packages exist for creating and summarizing models, but to our knowledge, AMModels is the only package dedicated not to the mechanics of analysis but to organizing analysis inputs, analysis outputs, and preserving descriptive metadata. We anticipate that this package will assist users hoping to preserve the key elements of an analysis so they may be more confidently revisited at a later date.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2010

Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

Missouri↗

USGS2002

Estimating the sources and transport of nutrients in the Waikato River Basin, New Zealand

We calibrated SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes) surface water‐quality models using measurements of total nitrogen and total phosphorus from 37 sites in the 13,900‐km 2 Waikato River Basin, the largest watershed on the North Island of New Zealand. This first application of SPARROW outside of the United States included watersheds representative of a wide range of natural and cultural conditions and water‐resources data that were well suited for calibrating and validating the models. We applied the spatially distributed model to a drainage network of nearly 5000 stream reaches and 75 lakes and reservoirs to empirically estimate the rates of nutrient delivery (and their levels of uncertainty) from point and diffuse sources to streams, lakes, and watershed outlets. The resulting models displayed relatively small errors; predictions of stream yield (kg ha −1 yr −1 ) were typically within 30% or less of the observed values at the monitoring sites. There was strong evidence of the accuracy of the model estimates of nutrient sources and the natural rates of nutrient attenuation in surface waters. Estimated loss rates for streams, lakes, and reservoirs agreed closely with experimental measurements and empirical models from New Zealand, North America, and Europe as well as with previous U.S. SPARROW models. The results indicate that the SPARROW modeling technique provides a reliable method for relating experimental data and observations from small catchments to the transport of nutrients in the surface waters of large river basins.

Waikato River↗

USGS2006

USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular↗

USGS2003

Environmental Resources Analysis System, A Prototype DSS

Since the 1960's, an increase in the public's environmental ethics, federal species preservation, water quality protection, and interest in free flowing rivers have evolved to the current concern for stewardship and conservation of natural resources. This heightened environmental awareness creates an appetite for data, models, information management, and systematic analysis of multiple scientific disciplines. A good example of this information and analysis need resides in the Green and Yampa Rivers, tributary to the Upper Colorado River. These rivers are home to endangered native fish species including the pikeminnow and razorback sucker. Two dams, Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge, impound the Green River headwaters. The respective reservoirs store water supplies as well as generate hydropower. Conversely, the Yampa River is considered unregulated and encompasses most of Dinosaur National Monument. Recreation is highly regarded on both rivers including fishing, whitewater rafting, and aesthetic values. Vast areas of irrigated agriculture, forestry, and mineral extraction also surround these rivers. To address this information need, we developed a prototype Environmental Resources Analysis System (ERAS) spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS). ERAS provides access to historic data sets, scientific information, statistical analysis, model outputs, and comparative methods all in a familiar and user-friendly format. This research project demonstrates a simplified decision support system for use by a diverse mix of resource managers, special interest groups, and individuals concerned about the sustainability of the Green and Yampa River ecosystem.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators

Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally by managers to better understand the effects that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (360 watershed units within the region) and combines 15 climate change indicators that were selected by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service natural resource managers based upon known and anticipated effects to species and habitats. The projected change in each of these indicators from the historical period (1986–2005) to the future period (2040–2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective of a watershed’s adaptive capacity were combined with the climate change indicators to produce a vulnerability score. We found sub-regional variation in vulnerability to climate change with the greatest vulnerability in Iowa, central Illinois, and northwest Ohio. Greater vulnerability was seen in the higher greenhouse gas concentration scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 compared to the lower greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 4.5, when looking at the mean of the five downscaled climate models used in this study. By quantifying and mapping climate change vulnerability, natural resource managers can better understand the degree of vulnerability for individual watersheds and identify areas of prioritization in regional and local planning efforts.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2010

Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources, onshore Claiborne Group, United Statespart of the northern Gulf of Mexico Basin

The middle Eocene Claiborne Group was assessed for undiscovered conventional hydrocarbon resources using established U.S. Geological Survey assessment methodology. This work was conducted as part of a 2007 assessment of Paleogene-Neogene strata of the northern Gulf of Mexico Basin, including the United States onshore and state waters (Dubiel et al., 2007). The assessed area is within the Upper Jurassic-CretaceousTertiary composite total petroleum system, which was defined for the assessment. Source rocks for Claiborne oil accumulations are interpreted to be organic-rich, downdip, shaley facies of the Wilcox Group and the Sparta Sand of the Claiborne Group; gas accumulations may have originated from multiple sources, including the Jurassic Smackover Formation and the Haynesville and Bossier shales, the Cretaceous Eagle Ford and Pearsall (?) formations, and the Paleogene Wilcox Group and Sparta Sand. Hydrocarbon generation in the basin started prior to deposition of Claiborne sediments and is currently ongoing. Primary reservoir sandstones in the Claiborne Group include, from oldest to youngest, the Queen City Sand, Cook Mountain Formation, Sparta Sand, Yegua Formation, and the laterally equivalent Cockfield Formation. A geologic model, supported by spatial analysis of petroleum geology data, including discovered reservoir depths, thicknesses, temperatures, porosities, permeabilities, and pressures, was used to divide the Claiborne Group into seven assessment units (AUs) with three distinctive structural and depositional settings. The three structural and depositional settings are (1) stable shelf, (2) expanded fault zone, and (3) slope and basin floor; the seven AUs are (1) lower Claiborne stable-shelf gas and oil, (2) lower Claiborne expanded fault-zone gas, (3) lower Claiborne slope and basin-floor gas, (4) lower Claiborne Cane River, (5) upper Claiborne stable-shelf gas and oil, (6) upper Claiborne expanded fault-zone gas, and (7) upper Claiborne slope and basin-floor gas. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of justified input parameters, the total estimated mean undiscovered conventional hydrocarbon resources in the seven AUs combined are 52 million bbl of oil, 19.145 tcf of natural gas, and 1.205 billion bbl of natural gas liquids. This article describes the conceptual geologic model used to define the seven Claiborne AUs, the characteristics of each AU, and the justification behind the input parameters used to estimate undiscovered resources for each AU. The great bulk of undiscovered hydrocarbon resources are predicted to be nonassociated gas and natural gas liquids contained in deep (mostiy >12,000-ft [3658 m], present-day drilling depths), overpressured, structurally complex outer shelf or slope and basin-floor Claiborne reservoirs. The continuing development of these downdip objectives is expected to be the primary focus of exploration activity for the onshore middle Eocene Gulf Coast in the coming decades. ?? 2010 U.S. Geological Survey. All rights reserved.

American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulle↗

USGS2010

Groundwater-flow model and effects of projected groundwater use in the Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System in the vicinity of Greene County, Missouri — 1907-2030

Recent and historical periods of rapid growth have increased the stress on the groundwater resources in the Ozark aquifer in the Greene County, Missouri area. Historical pumpage from the Ozark aquifer has caused a cone of depression beneath Springfield, Missouri. In an effort to ease its dependence on groundwater for supply, the city of Springfield built a pipeline in 1996 to bring water from Stockton Lake to the city. Rapid population growth in the area coupled with the expanding cone of depression raised concern about the sustainability of groundwater as a resource for future use. A groundwater-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Greene County, Missouri, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to assess the effect that increased groundwater demand is having on the long-term availability of groundwater in and around Greene County, Missouri. Three hydrogeologic units were represented in the groundwater-flow model: the Springfield Plateau aquifer, the Ozark confining unit, and the Ozark aquifer. The Springfield Plateau aquifer is less than 350 feet thick in the model area and generally is a low yield aquifer suitable only for domestic use. The Ozark aquifer is composed of a more than 900-foot thick sequence of dolomite and sandstone in the model area and is the primary aquifer throughout most of southern Missouri. Wells open to the entire thickness of the Ozark aquifer typically yield 1,000 gallons per minute or more. Between the two aquifers is the Ozark confining unit composed of as much as 98 feet of shale and limestone. Karst features such as sinkholes, springs, caves, and losing streams are present in both aquifers, but the majority of these features occur in the Springfield Plateau aquifer. The solution-enlarged fracture and bedding plane conduits in the karst system, particularly in the Springfield Plateau aquifer, are capable of moving large quantities of groundwater through the aquifer in relatively short periods of time. Pumpage rates in the model area increased from 1,093,268 cubic feet per day in 1962 to 2,693,423 cubic feet per day in 1987 to 4,330,177 cubic feet per day in 2006. Annual precipitation ranged from 25.21 inches in 1953 to 62.45 inches in 1927 from 1915 to 2006 in the model area. Recharge to the model was calculated as 2.53 percent of the annual precipitation and was varied annually. Recharge was distributed over the model area based on land slope and was adjusted in the city limits of Springfield to account for the impervious surface. A groundwater model with annual stress periods from 1907 to 2030 was developed using a transient calibration period from 1987 to 2006 and a prediction period from 2007 to 2030 to simulate flow in the Springfield Plateau aquifer and the Ozark aquifer. For the model area of approximately 2,870 square miles, the model hydrogeologic units and hydraulic properties were discretized into 253 rows, 316 columns, and 3 layers with the layer boundaries crossing hydrogeologic unit boundaries in some areas. The horizontal cell spacing was 1,000 feet by 1,000 feet. The model was calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated head and observed water levels and simulated and observed flows in rivers and springs. Population and the associated groundwater use were estimated for 12 communities and the unincorporated area of Greene County based on past growth. Each was analyzed individually, and a low and high annual rate of growth relative to the 2006 population was computed for each community or group. Low growth rates ranged from 0.215 percent per year in Springfield to 6.997 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the low growth rate ranged from 5.2 percent in Springfield to 167.9 percent in Rogersville. High growth rates ranged from 0.236 percent per year in Springfield to 7.345 percent per year in Rogersville. Total growth from 2006 to 2030 at the high growth rate ranged from 5.7 percent in Springfield to 176.3 percent in Rogersville. Response of the flow system to selected hypothetical pumping stresses and recharge conditions was simulated using the calibrated model. Seven hypothetical scenarios were simulated from 2007 to 2030 to test the effects of various stresses on the head in the Ozark aquifer. Hypothetical scenario 1 continued the 2006 pumping rates without change to the end of 2030. Scenario 2 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 3 assumed a low population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 4 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the beginning of the prediction period. Scenario 5 assumed a high population growth rate with a 4-year drought at the end of the prediction period. Scenario 6 and 7 had one new industrial well installed within the city limits of Springfield and one new industrial well installed about 3.5 miles east of Rogersville. Scenario 6 assumed a low population growth rate and scenario 7 assumed a high population growth rate. Results were compared by examining differences in head at the end of the simulation period. All scenarios examined resulted in potentiometric-surface declines from 2006 levels. Results from scenario 1 indicated that even with no increase in pumping, the potentiometric surface in the Springfield area continued to decline. The maximum decline of approximately 62 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface occurred in Springfield. The maximum decline from the 2006 potentiometric surface in scenarios 2 and 3 was approximately 203 feet and in scenarios 4 and 5 was approximately 207 feet. The drought occurring at the end of the simulation period tended to broaden the drawdown area relative to the drought at the beginning. Drought timing did not substantially affect the potentiometric surface in the Ozark aquifer except for where the Ozark aquifer was exposed. Although not a substantial difference, the high population growth rate scenarios tended to have larger declines than the low population growth rate scenarios. As in the previous scenarios, little difference was noted between the low and high growth rate in scenario 6 and 7. Scenarios 6 and 7 showed declines of more than 640 feet from the 2006 potentiometric surface at the new well located in Springfield. The drawdown at the new wells decreased relatively quickly with increased distance from the well. Simulated head in the nearby cities of Nixa, Ozark, and Republic was nearly the same for scenarios 2 through 7 and was lower than the head predicted for scenario 1. Results from scenarios 2 through 7 indicate that the potentiometric surface in 2030 near these cities could decline 100 feet or more from the 2006 levels. Because model layers 2 and 3, representing the Ozark confining unit and most of the thickness of the Ozark aquifer, were simulated as confined, drawdown in the wells in the area of the Ozark aquifer that is unconfined or becomes unconfined during the simulation period will likely be under predicted.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Responding to ecological transformation: Mental models, external constraints, and manager decision-making

Ecological transformation creates many challenges for public natural resource management and requires managers to grapple with new relationships to change and new ways to manage it. In the context of unfamiliar trajectories of ecological change, a manager can resist, accept, or direct change, choices that make up the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework. In this article, we provide a conceptual framework for how to think about this new decision space that managers must navigate. We identify internal factors (mental models) and external factors (social feasibility, institutional context, and scientific uncertainty) that shape management decisions. We then apply this conceptual framework to the RAD strategies (resist, accept, direct) to illuminate how internal and external factors shape those decisions. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how this conceptual framework shapes our understanding of management decisions, especially how these decisions are not just ecological but also social, and the implications for research and management.

BioScience↗

USGS2013

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

A regional simulation modeling framework for evaluating invasive annual grass management across the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses (IAG) continue to spread within the sagebrush biome of the western United States, degrading plant communities and wildlife habitat, decreasing forage for ranching livelihoods, and heightening wildfire risk. Effective management of IAGs requires action and long-term strategic planning across the sagebrush biome, but the cumulative effects of IAG treatments over time and space are not well understood, especially over broad extents defined for strategies like the Sagebrush Conservation Design. We developed a simulation model and sampling framework that allow local-scale actions to be ‘scaled up’ to evaluate large-scale regional and biome-wide management strategy outcomes. We worked with natural resource managers and experts to co-develop a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model of IAG dynamics in sagebrush landscapes that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies. We evaluated our framework by contrasting two baseline scenarios in terms of their long-term effects on the sagebrush biome. We show that focusing management efforts on moderate to high IAG cover was effective at reducing full conversion to IAGs but failed to prevent widespread establishment of IAGs in core sagebrush areas, exposing them to increased risk of wildfire and wildlife habitat degradation. The results of our model help quantify the extent of the problem that IAGs pose to sagebrush ecosystems given current knowledge and management efforts. Our framework provides a platform to explore alternative management strategy outcomes and can help managers develop informed conservation plans with realistic expectations for return on investment of resources committed to sagebrush landscapes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2000

Fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data

Fire frequency affects vegetation composition and successional pathways; thus it is essential to understand fire regimes in order to manage natural resources at broad spatial scales. Fire history data are lacking for many regions for which fire management decisions are being made, so models are needed to estimate past fire frequency where local data are not yet available. We developed multiple regression models and tree-based (classification and regression tree, or CART) models to predict fire return intervals across the interior Columbia River basin at 1-km resolution, using georeferenced fire history, potential vegetation, cover type, and precipitation databases. The models combined semiqualitative methods and rigorous statistics. The fire history data are of uneven quality; some estimates are based on only one tree, and many are not cross-dated. Therefore, we weighted the models based on data quality and performed a sensitivity analysis of the effects on the models of estimation errors that are due to lack of cross-dating. The regression models predict fire return intervals from 1 to 375 yr for forested areas, whereas the tree-based models predict a range of 8 to 150 yr. Both types of models predict latitudinal and elevational gradients of increasing fire return intervals. Examination of regional-scale output suggests that, although the tree-based models explain more of the variation in the original data, the regression models are less likely to produce extrapolation errors. Thus, the models serve complementary purposes in elucidating the relationships among fire frequency, the predictor variables, and spatial scale. The models can provide local managers with quantitative information and provide data to initialize coarse-scale fire-effects models, although predictions for individual sites should be treated with caution because of the varying quality and uneven spatial coverage of the fire history database. The models also demonstrate the integration of qualitative and quantitative methods when requisite data for fully quantitative models are unavailable. They can be tested by comparing new, independent fire history reconstructions against their predictions and can be continually updated, as better fire history data become available.

California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, ↗

USGS2004

Fort Collins Science Center: Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications

Land and water management agencies are responsible for restoring and conserving our nation's natural resources. However, they face increasing, often competing demands for those resources, which can result in alteration or loss of critical riverine, riparian, wetland, and terrestrial habitats. Land and resource managers may be in federal, state, or local government, but all have the same need for quantitative, objective, science-based information that helps them plan, manage, and conserve the natural resources within their purview. The Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications Branch (ASTA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) encompasses a wide variety of studies, investigations, and activities that are related to providing tools and capabilities for natural resource managers. ASTA's mission is to provide managers with credible science-based information on the interrelationships among the physical, chemical, aquatic, and biological natural resources in river basins for resource management decision-making. Branch goals are to: develop and apply specific models and analysis tools for resource management issues, identify habitat and biological linkages in river corridor environments, design and evaluate specific water quality improvement features, define economic measures for natural resource benefits, investigate altered flow regime effects on native fish populations, characterize sediment transport effects in river corridor environments, and utilize advanced technology to evaluate landscape-scale changes in river basins.

Fact Sheet↗