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Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration in National Parks: Values for the Conterminous United States

Lands managed by the National Park Service (NPS) provide a wide range of beneficial services to the American public. This study quantifies the ecosystem service value of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems within NPS units in the conterminous United States for which data were available. Combining annual net carbon balance data with spatially explicit NPS land unit boundaries and social cost of carbon estimates, this study calculates the net metric tons of carbon dioxide sequestered annually by park unit under baseline conditions, as well as the associated economic value to society. Results show that, in aggregate, NPS lands in the conterminous United States are a net carbon sink, sequestering more than 14.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. The associated societal value of this service is estimated at approximately $582.5 million per year. While this analysis provides a broad overview of the annual value of carbon sequestration on NPS lands averaged over a five year baseline period, it should be noted that carbon fluxes fluctuate from year to year, and there can be considerable variation in net carbon balance and its associated value within a given park unit. Future research could look in-depth at the spatial heterogeneity of carbon flux within specific NPS land units.

Natural Resource Report↗

Science-based management of public lands in southern Nevada

Landmark legislation provides guiding principles for land management planning in southern Nevada and the rest of the United States. Such legislation includes, but is not limited to, the Forest Service Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S>C. 473-478, 479-482 and 551), National Park Service Organic Act of 1916 (U.S.C. Title 16, Secs. 1-4). Wilderness Act 1964 (P.L.88-577), National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (P.L. 91-190), Endangered Species Act of 1973 (P.L. 91-205), National Forest Management Act of of 1976 (P.L. 94-588), and Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-579). The acts establishing congressionally designated areas within southern Nevada, such as Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Spring Mountains National Restoration Area, and Desert National Wildlife Refuge, also contain guidelines for the management of these lands. These documents variously require preservation of natural and cultural resource and wilderness character, protection of species, and prevention of undesirable environmental effects from land management actions. These requirements must be met while allowing for multiple "uses" of certain public lands (e.g. recreation, ranching, resources extraction, renewable energy development, etc.) to the degree that they do no threaten preservation, protection, and prevention goals,. many considerations some into play in the development and implementation for land management plans and actions. The planning process requires a balancing act that sometimes pit one need or priority against another. When priorities can trump other needs can prioritized and receive disproportionate consideration. Overall, the management of public lands is a very complicated and sometime contentious process. Science provides an objective way to help weigh quantifiable information and draw conclusions about the effects of past and potential future land management policies, decisions, and actions. When effectively integrated into adaptive management, science-based information can reduce uncertainties, increase knowledge, and improve decision making. However, the specific science information needed for effective management is often lacking or difficult to access or interpret. Science is typically reported in scientific journals as discrete units describing individual studies with other scientists as the primary audience. Translations of these studies an synthesis or multiple studies into formats that can be readily used in land management planning efforts are often lacking. Identifying and articulating the highest priority science and research needs is one of the primary purposes of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http://www.SNAP.gov) Science and Research Team (chapter 1; Turner and others 2009). The SNAP Science and Research Strategy (Strategy) calls for a synthesis report to be written every 5 years summarizing the state of knowledge, information gaps and management implications of scientific information as it relates to the SNAP Strategy goals (Turner and others 2009). This General Technical Report serves as the first SNAP Science and Research Synthesis Report (Synthesis Report) commissioned by the Science and Research Team. The Synthesis Report is mostly based on information form the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and is itself peer reviewed and constitutes a new contribution to the scientific literature. This final chapter addresses Sub-goal 2.3, which is to manage current and future authorized southern Nevada land uses in a manner that balances public need and ecosystem sustainability, and Sub-goal 2.5, which is to promote an effective conservation education and interpretation program to improve the quality of resources and enhance public use and enjoyment of southern Nevada public lands. It summarizes information form the previous chapters on what scientific information is known currently and what remains largely unknown, and it discusses how science can be used to make future management decisions that balances public needs and ecosystem sustainability.

Nevada↗

Summary of watershed conditions in the vicinity of Redwood National Park, California

The Redwood Creek Unit of Redwood National Park is located in the downstream end of an exceptionally rapidly eroding drainage basin. Spatial distribution and types of erosional landforms, observed in the field and on time-sequential aerial photographs, measured sediment loads, and the lithologic heterogeneity of streambed materials indicated (1) that sediment discharges reflect a complex suite of natural and man-induced mass movement and fluvial erosion processes operating on a geologically heterogeneous, naturally unstable terrain, and (2) that although infrequent exceptionally intense storms control the timing and general magnitude of major erosion events, the loci, types, and amounts of erosion occurring during those events are substantially influence by land use. Erosional impacts of past timber harvest in the Redwood Creek basin reflect primarily the cumulative impact of many small erosion problems caused not so much by removal. Recently modified riparian and aquatic environments reflect stream channel adjustments to recently increased water and sediment discharges, and are classified by the National Park Service as damaged resources because the modifications reflect, in part, unnatural causes. Newly strengthened State regulations and cooperative review procedures result in proposed timber harvest plans being tailored to specific site conditions, as well as smaller, more dispersed harvest units and more sophisticated attempts at minimizing ground-surface disruption than those used in most previous timber harvesting in this basin. However, application of improved timber harvest technology alone will not assure protection of park resources. Much remaining intact residual commercial old-growth timber is on hillslopes that are steeper, wetter, more susceptible to landsliding, and more nearly adjacent to major stream channels than most of the previously harvested hillslopes in the lower Redwood Creek basin. Moreover, natural debris barriers along streams flowing through remaining old-growth forest have temporarily stored substantial quantities of sediment introduced into streams by recent storms and upstream land-use changes. Removal of merchantable timber from these barriers may destroy their stability and cause rapid release of stored sediment. Additionally, massive erosion in some recently harvested areas suggest that they are so erosionally sensitive that following rehabilitation and reforestation, they should not be reharvested. Thus, in order to maintain site productivity and to protect downstream park resources, some erosionally critical areas may have to be maintained as perpetual timber reserves dedicated to watershed protection. Selective Federal acquisition of just erosionally critical acreage would create ownership patterns that would make management of both parklands and commercial timber lands exceedingly difficult.

California↗

The National Park Service stratotype inventory

Introduction An Inventory of Stratigraphic Origins within the National Park Service The geologic history of Earth is recorded in layers or bodies of rock that are classified in a hierarchical order with several different categories of geologic units, including: supergroup, group, formation, member, bed, supersuite, suite, or complex. Geologists analyze and classify rock types based on properties that include lithology, texture, thickness, sedimentary structures, fossils, geographic or geospatial distribution, and age. In instances where new geologic units are proposed, a stratotype is assigned to a designated section, locality, or area of well-exposed rock that displays diagnostic characteristics for identification and correlation. Stratotypes are also namesakes, in that formally recognized rock units are named for the places where they were first described, measured, and mapped. Thus, a vast majority of the stratigraphic nomenclature alludes to geographic or geologic features. Some particularly recognizable examples (and their stratotype assignments) include the Paleoproterozoic Vishnu Schist (Vishnu Canyon in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona), the Early Cambrian Harpers Formation (Harpers Ferry National Historical Park, West Virginia), and the Late Cretaceous Whitney Granodiorite (Mount Whitney in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California). Beginning in 2020, the National Park Service (NPS) began a systematic effort to document the occurrence of stratotypes exposed within, partially within, and near NPS administrative boundaries. The NPS stratotype inventory project represents an important component of a geologic resource inventory, as these designations are vital to our national geologic heritage (herein referred to as “geoheritage”) and possess significant scientific, historic, educational, cultural, and aesthetic values. The geoheritage significance of stratotypes is analogous to libraries and museums, in that they are geologic landmarks of Earth history and record the prodigious forces and evolving life forms that define our understanding of the planet. These designated exposures preserve knowledge, represent comparative geologic references where previous observations can be re-examined or reinterpreted, and can serve as valuable educational tools for future geoscientists (Brocx and others, 2019). The NPS stratotype inventory includes the following: Documentation of designated stratotype exposures to confirm their geospatial occurrence within, partially within, and near NPS administrative boundaries, compiled from published reports and maps; Compilation and visualization of the precise geographic locations of the stratotype exposures; and Recommendations that address potential land and resource management issues associated with NPS stratotypes. By achieving these goals, this project helps to raise awareness of stratotypes as a geologic resource by educating NPS staff and the public so that they may better understand, recognize, and protect these important park resources. The focused approach adopted for conducting the stratotype inventories throughout the NPS has centered on the 32 Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks established by the NPS during the late 1990s (for more information on each network, see https://www.nps.gov/im/networks.htm). The I&M networks represent groups or clusters of park units that are based on shared geography and natural resource characteristics. The Greater Yellowstone I&M Network, encompassing Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, Grand Teton National Park, John D. Rockefeller Jr. Memorial Parkway, and Yellowstone National Park, was used as the pilot network for initiating this stratotype inventory and was first published in November 2020 (Henderson and others, 2020). The 32d and final report on the Northeast Temperate I&M Network was published in October 2022 (Henderson and others, 2022). Currently, the NPS stratotype inventory project has identified more than 700 stratotypes within NPS administrative boundaries.

Professional Paper↗

Evaluation of fisher (Pekania pennanti) restoration in Olympic National Park and the Olympic Recovery Area: 2014 annual progress report

With the translocation and release of 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia to Olympic National Park during 2008–2010, the National Park Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife accomplished the first phase of fisher restoration in Washington State. Beginning in 2013, we initiated a new research project to determine the current status of fishers on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula 3–5 years after the releases and evaluate the short-term success of the restoration program. Objectives of the study are to determine the current distribution of fishers and proportion of the recovery area that is currently occupied by fishers, determine several genetic characteristics of the reintroduced population, and determine reproductive success of the founding animals through genetic studies. During 2014, we continued working with a broad coalition of cooperating agencies, tribes, and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) to collect data on fisher distribution and genetics using noninvasive sampling methods. The primary sampling frame consisted of 157 24-square-kilometer hexagons (hexes) distributed across all major land ownerships within the Olympic Peninsula target survey area. In 2014 we expanded the study by adding 58 more hexes to an expanded study area in response to incidental fisher observations outside of the target area obtained in 2013; 49 hexes were added south and 9 to the east of the target area. During 2014, federal, state, tribal and NGO biologists and volunteers established three baited motion-sensing camera stations, paired with hair snaring devices, in 80 hexes; 69 in the targeted area 11 in the expansion areas. Each paired camera/hair station was left in place for approximately 6 weeks, with three checks on 2-week intervals. We documented fisher presence in 5 of the 80 hexagons, and identified 5 different fishers through a combination of microsatellite DNA analyses and camera detections. All fisher detections were in the target area. These 5 individuals included 2 of the original founding population of 90, 1 of the 2 rescued and rehabilitated kits that were released in 2010, and 1 new recruit to the population (1 individual was not identified). Additionally, we identified more than 40 other species of wildlife at the baited camera stations. We also obtained eight incidental fisher observations through photographs and carcass retrieval. During 2015, we plan to sample 75 hexagons in the target area and 12 in the expansion area. We plan to sample all unsampled accessible hexes in the target area (26 hexes), and re-sample accessible hexes sampled in 2013 (49 hexes).

Washington↗

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗

The Water-Quality Partnership for National Parks—U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service, 1998–2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Park Service (NPS) work together through the USGS–NPS Water-Quality Partnership to support a broad range of policy and management needs related to high-priority water-quality issues in national parks. The program was initiated in 1998 as part of the Clean Water Action Plan, a Presidential initiative to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Clean Water Act. Partnership projects are developed jointly by the USGS and the NPS. Studies are conducted by the USGS and findings are used by the NPS to guide policy and management actions aimed at protecting and improving water quality. The National Park Service manages many of our Nation’s most highly valued aquatic systems across the country, including portions of the Great Lakes, ocean and coastal zones, historic canals, reservoirs, large rivers, high-elevation lakes and streams, geysers, springs, and wetlands. So far, the Water-Quality Partnership has undertaken 217 projects in 119 national parks. In each project, USGS studies and assessments ( http://water.usgs.gov/nps_partnership/pubs.php ) have supported science-based management by the NPS to protect and improve water quality in parks. Some of the current projects are highlighted in the NPS Call to Action Centennial initiative, Crystal Clear, which celebrates national park water-resource efforts to ensure clean water for the next century of park management ( http://www.nature.nps.gov/water/crystalclear/ ). New projects are proposed each year by USGS scientists working in collaboration with NPS staff in specific parks. Project selection is highly competitive, with an average of only eight new projects funded each year out of approximately 75 proposals that are submitted. Since the beginning of the Partnership in 1998, 189 publications detailing project findings have been completed. The 217 studies have been conducted in 119 NPS-administered lands, extending from Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska to Everglades National Park in Florida, and from Acadia National Park in the Northeast to park lands in Hawaii and Pacific Island territories in the West. Project goals range from periodic stream monitoring, to determining the occurrence and concentrations of contaminants and the potential for them to exceed human health or aquatic life criteria, to conducting interpretive studies to evaluate the effect(s) on or vulnerability of national park resources to visitor usage and other natural and anthropogenic activities.

Fact Sheet↗

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗

2013 National Park visitor spending effects: economic contributions to local communities, states, and the nation

The National Park Service (NPS) manages the nation's most iconic destinations that attract millions of visitors form across the nation and around the world. Trip-related spending by NPS visitors generates and supports a considerable amount of economic activity within park gateway communities. This economic effects analysis measures how NPS visitor spending cycles through local economies, generating business sales and supporting jobs and income. In 2013, the National Park System received over 273 million recreation visits. NPS visitors spent $14.6 billion in local gateway regions (defined as communities within 60 miles of a park). The contribution of this spending to the national economy was 238 thousand jobs, $9.2 billion in labor income, $15.6 billion in value added, and $26.5 billion in output. The lodging sector saw the highest direct contributions with 38 thousand jobs and $4.4 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. The sector with the next greatest direct contributions was restaurants and bats, with 50 thousand jobs and $2.0 billion in output directly contributed to local gateway economies nationally. While it is typical for visitation levels to fluctuate across the park units each year, system-wide visitation estimates in 2013 declines by 3.2% (or 9.1 million visits) compared ro 2012 (Street, 2014). Although many factors can influence park visitsation, two events signficiantly contrubuterd to this decline: the Government shutdown in October 2013, and lonf-term park closures related to the lasting effects of Hurrican Sandt from October 2012 through July 2013.

Natural Resource Report↗

Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

Two computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The dewatering, which is scheduled to last for about 18 months, would cause ground-water levels to be drawn down 20 to 30 feet (6 to 9 metres) to an elevation of 4 ft (1.2 m) below Lake Michigan datum under the approximately 7-acre (2.8-square hectometre) construction site, which is about 800 ft (245 m) west of the Lakeshore property. The results of this study have been used by the National Park Service to help evaluate the environmental impact of the dewatering, particularly the effects on the ecosystem of the lakeshore. The aquifer underlying the area is about 50 ft (15 m) thick and is composed of fine sand with layers of medium sand and gravel. All natural ponds in the area are separated from the aquifer by a low-permeability layer of silty organic muck and clay that ranges from about 1 to 4 ft (0.3 to 1.2 m) in thickness. This pond-bottom material acts only to retard the flow of water either to or from the aquifer beneath the ponds, depending upon the relative head in the pond and the aquifer. Elsewhere, the aquifer is under water-table conditions. The model analysis indicates that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft (1.2 m) under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft (0.15 m) of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5 1/2 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level.

Indiana↗

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michiga↗

Evaluation of fisher (Pekania pennanti) restoration in Olympic National Park and the Olympic Recovery Area: 2015 final annual progress report

With the translocation and release of 90 fishers (Pekania pennanti) from British Columbia to Olympic National Park during 2008–2010, the National Park Service (NPS) and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) accomplished the first phase of fisher restoration in Washington State. Beginning in 2013, we initiated a new research project to determine the current status of fishers on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula 3–8 years after the releases and evaluate the short-term success of the restoration program. Objectives of the study are to determine the current distribution of fishers and proportion of the recovery area that is currently occupied by fishers, determine several genetic characteristics of the reintroduced population, and determine reproductive success of the founding animals through genetic studies. During 2015, we continued working with a broad coalition of cooperating agencies, tribes, and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) to collect data on fisher distribution and genetics using noninvasive sampling methods. The primary sampling frame consisted of 157 24-km2 hexagons (hexes) distributed across all major land ownerships within the Olympic Peninsula target survey area. In 2014 we expanded the study by adding 58 more hexes to an expanded study area in response to incidental fisher observations outside of the target area obtained in 2013; 49 hexes were added south and 9 to the east of the target area. During 2015, Federal, State, Tribal and NGO biologists and volunteers established three Distributioned motion-sensing camera stations, paired with hair snaring devices, in 87 hexes; 75 in the targeted area and 12 in the expansion areas. Each paired camera/hair station was left in place for approximately 6 weeks, with three checks on 2-week intervals. We documented fisher presence in 7 of the 87 hexagons. Four fishers were identified through microsatellite DNA analyses. The 4 identified fishers included 1 of the original founding population of 90 and 3 new recruits to the population. Three additional fishers were detected with cameras but not DNA, consequently their identities were unknown. All fisher detections were in the target area. Additionally, we identified 46 other species of wildlife at the baited camera stations. We also obtained 4 additional confirmed records of fishers in the study area through photographs provided by the public and incidental live capture. During 2016, we plan to resample 69 hexagons sampled in the target area in 2014 and 12 new hexes in the expansion area. In addition, we plan to sample non-selected hexes in-between hexes where we had a cluster of fishers in 2014, to provide better understanding of occupancy patterns and minimum number of individuals in an area where fishers appear to be concentrating.

Washington↗

Restoring the Great Lakes: DOI stories of success and partnership in implementing the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

The Great Lakes are a monumentally unique national treasure containing nearly ninety-five percent of the United States' fresh surface water. Formed by receding glaciers, the Great Lakes support a thriving, resilient ecosystem rich with fish, wildlife, and abundant natural resources. The Great Lakes also support an array of commercial uses, including shipping, and provide a source of recreation, drinking water, and other critical services that drive the economy of the region and the Nation. Regrettably, activities such as clear cutting of mature forests, over-harvesting of fish populations, industrial pollution, invasive species, and agricultural runoffs have degraded these treasured lakes over the decades creating long-term impacts to the surrounding watershed. Fortunately, the people who live, work, and recreate in the region recognize the critical importance of a healthy Great Lakes ecosystem, and have come together to support comprehensive restoration. To stimulate and promote the goal of a healthy Great Lakes region, President Obama and Congress created the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) in 2009. This program provides the seed money to clean up legacy pollution, restore habitats, protect wildlife, combat invasive species, and address agricultural runoff in the Great Lakes watershed. At the same time GLRI promotes public outreach, education, accountability, and partnerships.

The Great Lakes↗

Groundwater flow model investigation of the vulnerability of water resources at Chaco Culture National Historical Park related to unconventional oil and gas development

Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CCNHP), located in northwestern New Mexico, protects the greatest concentration of Chacoan historical sites in the American Southwest. Geologically, CCNHP is located within the San Juan structural basin, which consists in part of complex Cretaceous stratigraphy and hosts a variety of energy resources. As part of a larger study to investigate the vulnerability of water resources at CCNHP related to oil and natural gas extraction activities, a MODFLOW groundwater model of the Mancos Shale and Gallup Sandstone units was created by the U.S. Geological Survey, as a part of a cooperative study with the National Park Service, to assess advective groundwater flow paths and traveltimes. The model determined that groundwater flow directions currently trend from south-southeast to north-northwest within the vicinity of CCNHP, groundwater traveltime through the Gallup Sandstone ranges from thousands to tens of thousands of years, and traveltime through the Mancos Shale may range from millions to tens of millions of years. The capture zone of the main CCNHP well (referred to as the “Chaco well”) extends to the south-southeast and ranges in width from approximately 1 to 12 miles, depending on pumping rate. Eighteen inactive hydrocarbon related wells are located within the capture zone and within 10 kilometers of the Chaco well. Given model estimates of traveltimes of groundwater in the Gallup Sandstone aquifer, advective groundwater transport to the Chaco well would take approximately 430 years from the nearest inactive hydrocarbon related wells. Differencing of historical and modern-day potentiometric surfaces of the Gallup Sandstone indicate a drop in groundwater levels between 34 and 96 feet within the CCNHP boundaries. Hydraulic fracturing, simulated as increased hydraulic conductivity zones, decreased groundwater traveltimes (from millions to thousands of years) and acted as permeable pathways from the Mancos Shale to the Gallup Sandstone.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for white-tailed deer in the National Capital Region parks

We evaluated the effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for estimating population sizes of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 2001 to 2015 in parks of the National Capital Region (NCR), National Parks Service. Distance sampling is a method for estimating the density of organisms using a distribution of distances to observed individuals. Re-analysis of survey data for 9 of 11 NCR parks found that although the original park analyses likely estimated deer densities correctly, the uncertainties (coefficients of variation or CV) of the original estimates were likely underestimated. Power analyses based on the current analysis methods showed that survey effort at some parks was likely insufficient to reach the NCR target of a 20% CV. We simulated 7 different types of deer populations and 3 survey designs to assess how violations of the assumptions of distance sampling might have impacted population estimates. A significant interaction between survey type and population type explained most of the variation in population estimates across simulations. Simulation results suggested that (1) non-road surveys were more robust to bias in seven deer population distributions than were road surveys, (2) effectiveness of each of 3 survey types was dependent on the way deer were distributed across the landscape, and (3) non-road surveys produced unbiased estimates of populations affected by roads, whereas, road surveys did not. Based on this study, we recommend revisions of the NCR distance sampling program, including additional sampling effort for some parks and suggest alternative survey strategies to ameliorate potential assumption violations of distance sampling.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS. Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.

Open-File Report↗

Water-Quality Data for Selected National Park Units within the Southern Colorado Plateau Network, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico, Water Years 2005 and 2006

The National Park Service initiated a Level 1 Water-Quality Inventory program to provide water-quality data to park managers so informed natural resource management decisions could be made. Level 1 water-quality data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey Arizona Water Science Center at 57 sites in 13 National Park units located in the Southern Colorado Plateau Inventory and Monitoring network in water years 2005 and 2006. These data describe the current water-quality at selected sites within the park units and provide information for monitoring future trends. Water samples were collected three times at each type of site including wells, springs, seeps, tinajas, rivers, a lake, and an irrigation ditch. Field measurements were taken at each site and they included pH, specific conductance, temperature, barometric pressure, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, turbidity, and discharge rates where applicable. Water samples collected were sent to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory and analyzed for major ions, trace elements, and nutrients. The National Water Quality Laboratory also analyzed selected samples for mercury and petroleum hydrocarbons. Additional samples at selected sites were collected and analyzed for cyanide, radiochemistry, and suspended sediment by U.S. Geological Survey contract labs. Fecal-indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli) were sampled for at selected sites as another indicator of water quality. Quality control for this study was achieved through proper training of field personnel, use of standard U.S. Geological Survey field and laboratory protocols, collection of sample blanks and replicates, and a thorough review of the water-quality analyses. Measured field pH ranged from 6.0 to 8.8, within normal range for springs and rivers, at most sites. Concentrations of dissolved solids ranged from 48 to 8,680 mg/L and the majority of samples had concentrations of dissolved solids below 900 mg/L. Trace-element concentrations at most sites were at or near the laboratory reporting levels. The highest overall trace-element concentrations were found at U.S. Highway 160 Spring near Park Entrance to Mesa Verde National Park. Concentrations of uranium in samples at all sites ranged from below the detection limit to 55.7 ?g/L. Water samples from selected sites were analyzed for total petroleum hydrocarbons and concentrations of total petroleum hydrocarbons were at or above the laboratory detection limit in samples at six National Park units. Ten sites were sampled for Escherichia coli and positive counts were found at 9 out of the ten sites, the highest colony counts were found at Chinle Creek at Chinle, AZ in Canyon de Chelly National Monument. Measured concentrations of dissolved ammonia, nitrite, and nitrate were at or near laboratory reporting levels at most sites; nitrate concentrations ranged from below the reporting limit (0.047 mg/L) to 9.77 mg/L. Samples that were analyzed for mercury had concentrations below or at the laboratory reporting level. Concentrations of cyanide were less than the laboratory reporting level for all samples except two, Spruce Tree House Spring in Mesa Verde National Park and Pine Tree Canyon Tinaja in Canyon de Chelly National Monument, which had average concentrations of .042 and .011 ?g/L respectively. Gross alpha/beta radioactivity counts were below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level except for samples from Casa Chiquita Well  Middle at Chaco Culture National Historical Park which averaged 35 pCi/L. Suspended-sediment concentrations were variable and ranged from 10 to 150,000 mg/L.

Open-File Report↗

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗