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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2023

Photochemical mobilization of dissolved hydrocarbon oxidation products from petroleum contaminated soil into a shallow aquifer activate human nuclear receptors

Elevated non-volatile dissolved organic carbon (NVDOC) concentrations in groundwater monitoring wells under oil-contaminated hydrophobic soils originating from a pipeline rupture at the National Crude Oil Spill & Natural Attenuation Research Site near Bemidji, MN are documented.. We hypothesized the elevated NVDOC is comprised of water-soluble photooxidation products transported from the surface to the aquifer. We use field and laboratory samples in combination with complementary analytical methods to test this hypothesis and determine the biological response to these products. Observations from optical spectroscopy and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry reveal a significant correlation between the chemical composition of NVDOC leached from photochemically weathered soils and groundwater monitoring wells with high NVDOC concentrations measured in the aquifer beneath the contaminated soil. Conversely, the chemical composition from the uncontaminated soil photoleachate, matches the NVDOC observed in the uncontaminated wells. Contaminated groundwater and photodissolution leachates from contaminated soil activated biological targets indicative of xenobiotic metabolism and exhibited potential for adverse effects. Newly formed hydrocarbon oxidation products (HOPs) from fresh oil could be distinguished from those downgradient. This study illustrates another pathway for dissolved HOPs to infiltrate groundwater and potentially affect human health and the environment.

Minnesota↗
USGS1988

Measuring contemporary crustal motions; NASA’s Crustal Dynamics Project

In the early and middle 1970's, two new space-based geodetic techniques became available that offered unprecedented accuracy in the measurement of distances over long baselines. As described below, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) provided a capability to determine in relatively short periods of time the inter-site distance between two observing stations to a level of several centimeters, even if they were separated by thousands or tens of thousands of kilometers. During the 1980's the two techniques have evolved to the point where baselines can now be routinely measured to a level below one centimeter. This is a tenfold improvement in about ten years. Perhaps more important than providing the measurement capability are the consequences of this capability when applied over a few years: the motion of any one site with respect to another can be monitored at the level of better than a cm/yr. This has made possible, for the first time, direct measurement of the motion of the Earth's tectonic plates and of the deformation of its crust in active plate boundary regions. Because such measurements have the potential for providing important information on the mechanisms that drive plates and cause them to slip during earthquakes, a coordinated federal program for the application of this space technology to crustal dynamics and earthquake research was established in 1979. The participating agencies were the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Defense Mapping Agency. NASA formed the Crustal Dynamics Project to further develop the SLR and VLBI techniques, to implement global networks of stations with the cooperation of many different countries, and to conduct measurements of plate motions and regional deformations. this project has grown into an international effort to collect information directly relevant to understanding the threat of the earthquake hazard as well as fundamental research about the crust and upper mantle. In this article we describe briefly the two space geodetic techniques and how they are used by the Crustal Dynamics Project, show some of the very exciting results that have emerged at the halfway point in the project's life, describe the availability and utilization of the data being collected, and consider what the future may hold when measurement accuracies eventually exceed even those now available and when other international groups become more heavily involved.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
USGS2009

Hydrothermal processes above the Yellowstone magma chamber: Large hydrothermal systems and large hydrothermal explosions

Hydrothermal explosions are violent and dramatic events resulting in the rapid ejection of boiling water, steam, mud, and rock fragments from source craters that range from a few meters up to more than 2 km in diameter; associated breccia can be emplaced as much as 3 to 4 km from the largest craters. Hydrothermal explosions occur where shallow interconnected reservoirs of steam- and liquid-saturated fluids with temperatures at or near the boiling curve underlie thermal fields. Sudden reduction in confining pressure causes fluids to flash to steam, resulting in significant expansion, rock fragmentation, and debris ejection. In Yellowstone, hydrothermal explosions are a potentially significant hazard for visitors and facilities and can damage or even destroy thermal features. The breccia deposits and associated craters formed from hydrothermal explosions are mapped as mostly Holocene (the Mary Bay deposit is older) units throughout Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and are spatially related to within the 0.64-Ma Yellowstone caldera and along the active Norris-Mammoth tectonic corridor. In Yellowstone, at least 20 large (>100 m in diameter) hydrothermal explosion craters have been identified; the scale of the individual associated events dwarfs similar features in geothermal areas elsewhere in the world. Large hydrothermal explosions in Yellowstone have occurred over the past 16 ka averaging ~1 every 700 yr; similar events are likely in the future. Our studies of large hydrothermal explosion events indicate: (1) none are directly associated with eruptive volcanic or shallow intrusive events; (2) several historical explosions have been triggered by seismic events; (3) lithic clasts and comingled matrix material that form hydrothermal explosion deposits are extensively altered, indicating that explosions occur in areas subjected to intense hydrothermal processes; (4) many lithic clasts contained in explosion breccia deposits preserve evidence of repeated fracturing and vein-filling; and (5) areal dimensions of many large hydrothermal explosion craters in Yellowstone are similar to those of its active geyser basins and thermal areas. For Yellowstone, our knowledge of hydrothermal craters and ejecta is generally limited to after the Yellowstone Plateau emerged from beneath a late Pleistocene icecap that was roughly a kilometer thick. Large hydrothermal explosions may have occurred earlier as indicated by multiple episodes of cementation and brecciation commonly observed in hydrothermal ejecta clasts. Critical components for large, explosive hydrothermal systems include a water-saturated system at or near boiling temperatures and an interconnected system of well-developed joints and fractures along which hydrothermal fluids flow. Active deformation of the Yellowstone caldera, active faulting and moderate local seismicity, high heat flow, rapid changes in climate, and regional stresses are factors that have strong influences on the type of hydrothermal system developed. Ascending hydrothermal fluids flow along fractures that have developed in response to active caldera deformation and along edges of low-permeability rhyolitic lava flows. Alteration of the area affected, self-sealing leading to development of a caprock for the hydrothermal system, and dissolution of silica-rich rocks are additional factors that may constrain the distribution and development of hydrothermal fields. A partial low-permeability layer that acts as a cap to the hydrothermal system may produce some over-pressurization, thought to be small in most systems. Any abrupt drop in pressure initiates steam flashing and is rapidly transmitted through interconnected fractures that result in a series of multiple large-scale explosions contributing to the excavation of a larger explosion crater. Similarities between the size and dimensions of large hydrothermal explosion craters and thermal fields in Yellowstone may indicate that catastrophic events which result in large hydrothermal explosions are an end phase in geyser basin evolution. The Mary Bay hydrothermal explosion crater complex is the largest such complex in Yellowstone, and possibly in the world, with a diameter of 2.8 km in length and 2.4 km in width. It is nested in Mary Bay in the northern basin of Yellowstone Lake, an area of high heat flow and active deformation within the Yellowstone caldera. A sedimentary sequence exposed in wave-cut cliffs between Storm Point and Mary Bay gives insight into the geologic history of the Mary Bay hydrothermal explosion event. The Mary Bay explosion breccia deposits overlie sand above varved lake sediments and are separated locally into an upper and lower unit. The sand unit contains numerous small normal faults and is coextensive with the Mary Bay breccia in its northern extent. This sand may represent deposits of an earthquake-generated wave. Seismicity associated with the earthquake may have triggered the hydrothermal explosion responsible for development of the Mary Bay crater complex. Large hydrothermal explosions are rare events on a human time scale; however, the potential for additional future events of the sort in Yellowstone National Park is not insignificant. Based on the occurrence of large hydrothermal explosion events over the past 16,000 yr, an explosion large enough to create a 100-m-wide crater might be expected every 200 yr.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) activities at the Department of the Interior

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for protecting and managing the natural resources and heritage on almost 20% of the land in the United States. The DOI’s mission requires access to remotely sensed data over vast lands, including areas that are remote and potentially dangerous to access. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology has the potential to enable the DOI to be a better steward of the land by: (1) Improving natural hazard forecasting and the analysis of the impacts. (2) Improving the understanding of climate change to better plan for likely impacts. (3) Developing precipitation and evaporation forecasting to better manage water resources. (4) Monitoring Arctic ice change and its impacts on ecosystems, coasts, and transportation. (5) Increasing safety and effectiveness of wildland fire management. (6) Enhancing search and rescue capabilities. (7) Broadening the abilities to monitor environmental or landscape conditions and changes. (8) Better understanding and protecting the Nation’s ecosystems. The initial operational testing and evaluations performed by the DOI have proven that UAS technology can be used to support many of the Department’s activities. UAS technology provides scientists a way to look longer, closer and more frequently at some of Earth’s most remote areas—places that were previously too dangerous or expensive to monitor in detail. The flexibility of operations and relative low cost to purchase and operate Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) enhances the ability to track long-term landscape and environmental change. The initial testing indicates the operational costs are approximately 10% of traditional manned aircraft. In addition, users can quickly assess landscape-altering events such as wildland fires, floods and volcanoes. UAS technology will allow the DOI to do more with less and in the process enhance the Department’s ability to provide unbiased scientific information to help stakeholders make informed decisions. It will also provide a digital baseline record that can be archived and used when monitoring future events or conditions. One possible future scenario has scientists carrying sUAS into the field allowing quick deployment and operation to observe the environment or for emergency response. This scenario could also include a persistent monitoring capability provided by a UAS that can stay airborne over a small geographic area for days or weeks, or possibly longer. While the DOI focus is on sUAS, the Department recognizes that larger UAS systems will also play a role in meeting its mission. The Department anticipates meeting long-duration or specialized acquisition commitments, such as state or national aerial photography, by collaboration with other agencies or through commercial contracts. Even though the DOI continues to evaluate UAS and sensor technology to meet the Department’s mission, some of its bureaus are already moving towards an operational capability. The authors fully anticipate that by 2020 UAS will emerge as one of the primary platforms for DOI remote sensing applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2024

The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model

US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) and ground motion models (GMMs). The ERF includes numerous additions to the finite-fault model, considers two deformation models, and introduces updated declustering and smoothing algorithms in the gridded background seismicity model. For the Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone, megathrust earthquakes occur on an updated structural and segmentation model, and the moment magnitude (M) 8+ rupture and rate model include a logic tree branch that considers slip rates derived from geodetic models of interface coupling. The megathrust model considers multiple models of down-dip width, and magnitudes are computed using newly developed scaling relations. For subduction intraslab events and subduction interface events with M < 7, the 2023 update uses a smoothed seismicity model with rupture depths derived from Slab2. The 2023 model updates GMMs in all tectonic settings using the recently published Next Generation Attenuation Subduction (NGA-Sub) GMMs for subduction interface and intraslab events, and the NGA-West2 GMMs for active crustal settings. Collectively, additions and updates to the Alaska NSHM result in hazard increases across most of south-central Alaska relative to the previous model, published in 2007. These changes are primarily due to the adoption of updated rate models for the large-magnitude interface events and the NGA-Sub GMMs that have much higher aleatory variability (sigma), consistent with global observations, and that include models of epistemic uncertainty.

Alaska↗
USGS2004

Prediction of nonlinear soil effects

Mathematical models of soil nonlinearity in common use and recently developed nonlinear codes compared to investigate the range of their predictions. We consider equivalent linear formulations with and without frequency-dependent moduli and damping ratios and nonlinear formulations for total and effective stress. Average velocity profiles to 150 m depth with midrange National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site classifications (B, BC, C, D, and E) in the top 30 m are used to compare the response of a wide range of site conditions from rock to soft soil. Nonlinear soil models are compared using the amplification spectrum, calculated as the ratio of surface ground motion to the input motion at the base of the velocity profile. Peak input motions from 0.1 g to 0.9 g are considered. For site class B, no significant differences exist between the models considered in this article. For site classes BC and C, differences are small at low input motions (0.1 g to 0.2 g ), but become significant at higher input levels. For site classes D and E the overdamping of frequencies above about 4 Hz by the equivalent linear solution with frequency-independent parameters is apparent for the entire range of input motions considered. The equivalent linear formulation with frequency-dependent moduli and damping ratios under damps relative to the nonlinear models considered for site class C with larger input motions and most input levels for site classes D and E. At larger input motions the underdamping for site classes D and E is not as severe as the overdamping with the frequency-independent formulation, but there are still significant differences in the time domain. A nonlinear formulation is recommended for site classes D and E and for site classes BC and C with input motions greater than a few tenths of the acceleration of gravity. The type of nonlinear formulation to use is driven by considerations of the importance of water content and the availability of laboratory soils data. Our average amplification curves from a nonlinear effective stress formulation compare favorably with observed spectral amplification at class D and E sites in the Seattle area for the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2020

Calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model

The U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model (NCM) is being developed to include spatially varying estimates of site response in seismic hazard assessments. Primary outputs of the NCM are continuous velocity and density profiles from the Earth’s surface to the mantle transition zone at 410-kilometer (km) depth for each location on a 1-km grid across the conterminous United States. Datasets used to produce the NCM may have a resolution of better than 1 km near the Earth’s surface in some regions, but, with increasing depth, NCM resolution decreases to tens to hundreds of kilometers in the mantle. Basic subsurface information is provided by the NCM geologic framework, thermal model, and petrologic and mineral physics database. In this report, the velocities and densities that can be extracted from the NCM are calibrated through the development of a porosity model based on Biot-Gassmann theory and more than 2,000 compressional- and (or) shear-wave velocity profiles less than 10 km deep from across the conterminous United States and southwestern Canada. Sediment and rock porosities are derived from shear-wave velocity and are found to depend on effective pressure, rock type, and age (for sedimentary and extrusive volcanic deposits). Porosity-effective pressure functions are then estimated for each rock type (and age for sedimentary and extrusive volcanic deposits). Unconsolidated sediments are found to have higher porosities than consolidated units, which have higher porosities than unweathered igneous units; young sedimentary units (for example, Quaternary age units) tend to have higher porosities than older sedimentary units (for example, pre-Cenozoic age units); porosity decreases with increasing effective pressure; and porosities can decrease quickly through the weathered layer of intrusive rocks. Comparing two Los Angeles area velocity models and the U.S. Geological Survey Bay Area velocity model with the NCM, the NCM does a better job on average of reproducing observed shear-wave velocities below 1 km per second because it has less bias and uncertainty. Approaching and above 1 km per second, the NCM tends to underpredict observed shear-wave velocity. Whereas several factors could contribute to this, the primary factor is probably bias in the NCM geologic framework. For example, the NCM will predict lower velocities in places where the depth to bedrock and basement appear shallower in the measured velocity profiles than specified in the NCM geologic framework. With regard to observed compressional-wave velocity and density, the NCM has significantly less bias than California models for the former, especially below 2 km per second, and all models tend to overpredict density for densities less than about 2,200 kilograms per cubic meter.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Evaluation of land subsidence and ground failures at Bicycle Basin, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California, 1992–2017

Groundwater has been pumped in the Bicycle Basin at Fort Irwin National Training Center since the 1960s, and the amount pumped has generally increased since the 1990s. After a large crack (approximately 0.5-kilometer long) formed at the surface of Bicycle Lake playa during 2005–06 in the area used as an aircraft runway, a monitoring study was initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Fort Irwin National Training Center, to help determine the cause. The extent and effect of groundwaterlevel declines and land-surface deformation in Bicycle Basin were evaluated using a number of approaches, including water-level measurements from December 2007 to June 2017, land surveys across the playa area, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analyses, geophysical surveys of the playa area, and numerical experiments to test hypotheses about soil mechanical processes. A specific objective of this study was to evaluate the recent development of ground failures in the form of large, surface cracks that pose a hazard to aircraft operations on the Bicycle Lake playa airstrip. Another large crack and set of interconnected cracks formed at the surface of Bicycle Lake playa in 2013 following a period of inundation similar to that of 2005–06; however, the 2013 cracks formed a network rather than a single feature. Groundwater pumping resulted in more than 27 meters (90 feet) of water-level declines in wells north of the Bicycle Lake playa from 1990 to 2017, and InSAR interferograms indicated more than 400 millimeters (16 inches) of subsidence during 1993–2015. Subsidence rates calculated from InSAR interferograms were variable, temporally and spatially. Results of leveling surveys indicated differential subsidence between 2009 and 2016 along a transect across the playa to the area of maximum subsidence; there was less subsidence south of the 2005–06 crack than north of it. The steepest subsidence gradient for this time was in the area of maximum subsidence. Repeat tape-extensometer measurements from April 2009 to November 2017 across the main-runway crack indicated slight opening along part of the crack. A baseline lidar (light detection and ranging) survey of the main-runway crack was done in January 2009 to track the development of this feature. During the 95-months from January 2009 to December 2016, 0.5 meters (19.7 inches) of subsidence was observed next to the subsidence pit in the crack along the western end of the scanned area, presumably due to erosion and backfilling when the lake was inundated. Standing water in the crack along the eastern end of the scanned area prevented determining change for that part of the crack. Time-series, shaded-relief images show the progression of change in the crack from January 2009 through December 2016, with the crack closing and opening, depending on the time of most recent inundation relative to when the scans were taken. Volumetric changes in the size of the crack, calculated between the sequential lidar surveys, show that from 2009 to 2016, the cumulative volumetric change was 1.5 cubic meters (54 cubic feet). This volume is a minimum estimate because the crack volume below the water surface in the pits was not included in the calculations. Subsurface imaging of the 2005–06 main-runway crack by a series of electrical resistivity tomography surveys in 2008 and 2017 indicated that the crack could extend 5 meters (16 feet) in the subsurface. Electromagnetic induction surveys in 2008, 2014, and 2015 evaluated the technique for ground-failure monitoring and showed that the technique was effective at revealing anomalies correlated with the features of concern in the playa area, such as the 2005–06 crack, numerous ”healed” macropolygon features, and scattered sink-like depressions. Results from numerical experiments simulating watertable decline at depth indicated that the material deposits in the desaturating capillary fringe zone might not be able to transmit large enough stresses up through the overlying soil to cause cracks at the land surface. Results from simulations of desiccation in the presence of a regional tectonically induced stress field, however, tended to support the hypothesis that the combined processes could control the formation of giant desiccation macropolygons in certain areas, such as Bicycle Lake playa.

California↗
USGS2012

Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone&mdash;Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel confluence, instead of representing the merged flows from two tributaries, monitor the dominant tributary only. Sandy beds low in the turbidites, instead of matching from channel to channel, permit divergent stratigraphic correlations; and rather than approximating strong-motion seismograms, the sandy beds more likely record processes internal to the generation and transformation of subaqueous mass movements. The age adjustments, instead of supporting other evidence that all the northern ruptures were long, are uncertain enough to accord with variation in rupture mode, and this variation improves agreement with onshore paleoseismology. Many of the turbidites counted as evidence for frequent earthquakes on the southern Cascadia plate boundary may instead reflect nearness to steep slopes. This report is meant to aid in the updating of national maps of seismic hazards in Canada and the United States. It offers three main conclusions for consideration at a U.S. hazard-map workshop slated for March 21-22, 2012: If giant earthquakes are the norm for the plate boundary offshore southern Washington, the strongest paleoseismic evidence for this rupture mode is the average earthquake-recurrence interval of about 500 years that is evidenced both offshore in lower Cascadia Channel and onshore at estuaries of southern Washington and northernmost Oregon. The plate boundary offshore southern British Columbia and northern Washington may be capable of producing great earthquakes at an average interval as short as 300 years that is evidenced mainly onshore. Review of more of the turbidite evidence now in press may clarify implications for the hazard maps. Further work on the deep-sea turbidites could target sedimentary processes and chronological uncertainties that may affect the turbidites' sensitivity to fault-rupture lengths and recurrence rates.

Washington;Oregon;California↗
USGS2023

Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: Application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA

Probabilistic models to inform landslide early warning systems often rely on rainfall totals observed during past events with landslides. However, these models are generally developed for broad regions using large catalogs, with dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of landslide occurrences. This study evaluates strategies for training landslide forecasting models with a scanty record of landslide-triggering events, which is a typical limitation in remote, sparsely populated regions. We evaluate 136 statistical models trained on a precipitation dataset with five landslide-triggering precipitation events recorded near Sitka, Alaska, USA, as well as > 6000 d of non-triggering rainfall (2002–2020). We also conduct extensive statistical evaluation for three primary purposes: (1) to select the best-fitting models, (2) to evaluate performance of the preferred models, and (3) to select and evaluate warning thresholds. We use Akaike, Bayesian, and leave-one-out information criteria to compare the 136 models, which are trained on different cumulative precipitation variables at time intervals ranging from 1 h to 2 weeks, using both frequentist and Bayesian methods to estimate the daily probability and intensity of potential landslide occurrence (logistic regression and Poisson regression). We evaluate the best-fit models using leave-one-out validation as well as by testing a subset of the data. Despite this sparse landslide inventory, we find that probabilistic models can effectively distinguish days with landslides from days without slide activity. Our statistical analyses show that 3 h precipitation totals are the best predictor of elevated landslide hazard, and adding antecedent precipitation (days to weeks) did not improve model performance. This relatively short timescale of precipitation combined with the limited role of antecedent conditions likely reflects the rapid draining of porous colluvial soils on the very steep hillslopes around Sitka. Although frequentist and Bayesian inferences produce similar estimates of landslide hazard, they do have different implications for use and interpretation: frequentist models are familiar and easy to implement, but Bayesian models capture the rare-events problem more explicitly and allow for better understanding of parameter uncertainty given the available data. We use the resulting estimates of daily landslide probability to establish two decision boundaries that define three levels of warning. With these decision boundaries, the frequentist logistic regression model incorporates National Weather Service quantitative precipitation forecasts into a real-time landslide early warning “dashboard” system ( https://sitkalandslide.org/ , last access: 9 October 2023). This dashboard provides accessible and data-driven situational awareness for community members and emergency managers.

Alaska↗
USGS1988

National water summary 1986: Hydrologic events and ground-water quality

Ground water is one of the most important natural resources of the United States and degradation of its quality could have a major effect on the welfare of the Nation. Currently (1985), ground water is the source of drinking water for 53 percent of the Nation's population and for more than 97 percent of its rural population. It is the source of about 40 percent of the Nation's public water supply, 33 percent of water for irrigation, and 17 percent of freshwater for selfsupplied industries. Ground water also is the source of about 40 percent of the average annual streamflow in the United States, although during long periods of little or no precipitation, ground-water discharges provide nearly all of the base streamflow. This hydraulic connection between aquifers and streams implies that if a persistent pollutant gets into an aquifer, it eventually could discharge into a stream. Information presented in the 1986 National Water Summary clearly shows that the United States has very large amounts of potable ground water available for use. Although naturally occurring constituents, such as nitrate, and human-induced substances, such as synthetic organic chemicals, frequently are detected in ground water, their concentrations usually do not exceed existing Federal or State standards or guidelines for maximum concentrations in drinking water. Troublesome contamination of ground water falls into two basic categories related to the source or sources of the contamination. Locally, high concentrations of a variety of toxic metals, organic chemicals, and petroleum products have been detected in ground water associated with point sources such as wastedisposal sites, storage-tank leaks, and hazardous chemical spills. These types of local problems commonly occur in densely populated urban areas and industrialized areas. Larger, multicounty areas also have been identified where contamination frequently is found in shallow wells. These areas generally are associated with broad-scale, or nonpoint, sources of contamination such as agricultural activities or highdensity domestic waste disposal (septic systems) in urban centers. At present, only a very small percentage of the total volume of potable ground water in the United States is contaminated from both point and nonpoint sources; however, available data, especially data about the occurrence of synthetic organic and toxic substances, generally are inadequate to determine the full extent of ground-water contamination in the Nation's aquifers or to define trends in groundwater quality. Most information about the occurrence of these substances has come from the study of individual sites or areas where contamination had already been detected or suspected. Management and protection of ground water present a major challenge to the Nation. Current and projected costs of detection and cleanup of existing ground-water contamination are staggering and, even so, complete removal of pollutants from ground water in the vicinity of some waste sites might not be technically feasible. At all levels of government, the task of protecting the resource for its most beneficial uses is difficult and controversial. Despite increasing awareness that some of the Nation's ground water is contaminated with a variety of toxic metals, synthetic organic chemicals, radionuclides, pesticides, and other contaminants that might present a long-term risk to human health, public policy towards ground-water protection is still in the formative stages. Despite increasing efforts devoted to ground-water protection by State and Federal regulatory and resource-management agencies, the extent of ground-water contamination is likely to appear to increase over the next few years because more agencies will be searching for evidence of contamination, and they will be using increasingly sensitive analytical procedures. Increased technology and expanded monitoring activities probably will detect the effects of past contamination and land uses on water quality. The significant time lag between a waterquality change in one part of an aquifer system and the effects of that change at a downgradient site, such as a well, results from the generally slow movement of ground water. This lag between cause and observed effect needs to be considered in evaluating the effectiveness of current and future ground-water policies and remedial measures. Conclusive answers to questions about the location, extent, and severity of ground-water contamination, and about trends in ground-water quality, must await further collection and analysis of data from the Nation's aquifers. Generalizations, however, can be made, and the 1986 National Water Summary, which describes the natural quality of ground-water resources in each State and the major contamination problems that have been identified as of 1986, provides a national perspective of the ground-water-quality situation. The 1986 National Water Summary follows the format of previous volumes. It contains three parts, and the contents of each of these parts are highlighted below.

Water Supply Paper↗
USGS2006

Analysis of mid- and high-stage conditions for the Peconic River at the eastern boundary of Brookhaven National Laboratory, Suffolk County, New York

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has historically discharged sewage treatment plant (STP) effluent to the Peconic River, which runs through the BNL site in Suffolk County, N.Y. This effluent discharge has averaged about 700,000 gallons per day (about 1.1 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]) since 1962 and led to contamination of streambed sediments by radioactive and hazardous constituents. Large sections of the stream channel near BNL are dry during periods of relatively low water-table altitude referred to as low-stage conditions. During mid-stage conditions, the water table intersects the streambed and base flow commences and increases as the water table rises to the tops of the streambanks. Areas adjacent to the stream become flooded during high-stage conditions as the water table rises above the streambanks. Information on the long-term (1943-2003) percentages of time that discharges at two nearby streamflow-gaging stations exceeded thresholds associated with mid- and high-stage conditions is needed to provide a range of estimates of the prevalence and seasonal variability of these conditions during the same years for streamflow-gaging station HQ on the Peconic River at the eastern boundary of BNL. Analysis and correlation of discharge data from the three streamflow-gaging stations—BNL’s station HQ and the U.S. Geological Survey stations on the Peconic River at Riverhead, N.Y., and Carmans River at Yaphank, N.Y.—were performed to extend the 1995-2003 period of record for station HQ. Low-stage conditions occur when there is no flow at station HQ and, therefore, the start-of-flow for the Peconic River is downstream of BNL property. Mid-stage conditions occur when there is flow at station HQ but its daily mean value does not exceed 4.2 ft 3 /s; high-stage conditions occur when this discharge exceeds 4.2 ft 3 /s. Daily mean streamflows at station HQ were associated with low-stage conditions most of the time during 1995-2003 for all flow durations. Low-stage conditions predominated during January, March, and July through December of these years, whereas mid-stage conditions prevailed during parts of February and April through June. Mid-stage conditions generally appeared throughout the year during 1995-2003, except for mid-October, during which only low-stage conditions were observed. High-stage conditions were attained the least amount of time for all flow durations, and appeared only during parts of March through July and December of these years. The percentages of time during 1943-2003 that daily mean streamflows at the Riverhead and Yaphank stations were associated with low-, mid-, and high-stage conditions provide a range of estimates of the amounts of time that these conditions occurred during these years at station HQ. Daily mean streamflows were associated with low-stage conditions most of the time during 1943-2003 for durations of 30 and 60 days; with mid-stage conditions most of the time for durations of 1, 3, and 7 days; and with either of these conditions for a duration of 14 days. High-stage conditions were attained the least amount of time during these years for all durations, except perhaps that of 1 day, for which low-stage conditions could have occurred the least amount of time. Mid-stage conditions predominated during January through early March, June through early July, and late November through December of these years. These conditions typically appeared throughout the year during 1943-2003, and occurred most often during late February. High-stage conditions also generally appeared throughout the year, except perhaps for a few days during early September of these years, and occurred most often during April. These results indicate that streamflows observed during 1943-2003 at the Riverhead and Yaphank stations—used to estimate a longer record for station HQ—were considerably higher than those observed during 1995-2003 at the three stations, and provide information that can be used in future studies to better understand the long-term capacity of streams such as the Peconic River near BNL to supply continuous flow, flood adjacent low-lying areas, and sustain aquatic habitats.

New York↗
USGS2008

Debris flows and floods in southeastern Arizona from extreme precipitation in July 2006 — Magnitude, frequency, and sediment delivery

From July 31 to August 1, 2006, an unusual set of atmospheric conditions aligned to produce record floods and an unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in southeastern Arizona. During the week leading up to the event, an upper-level low-pressure system centered over New Mexico generated widespread and locally heavy rainfall in southeastern Arizona, culminating in a series of strong, mesoscale convective systems that affected the region in the early morning hours of July 31 and August 1. Rainfall from July 27 through 30 provided sufficient antecedent moisture that the storms of July 31 through August 1 resulted in record streamflow flooding in northeastern Pima County and eastern Pinal County. The rainfall caused at least 623 slope failures in four mountain ranges, including more than 30 near Bowie Mountain in the northern Chiracahua Mountains, and 113 at the southern end of the Huachuca Mountains within and adjacent to Coronado National Memorial. In the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, 435 slope failures spawned debris flows on July 31 that, together with flood runoff, damaged structures and roads, affecting infrastructure within Tucson’s urban boundary. Heavy, localized rainfall in the Galiuro Mountains on August 1, 2006, resulted in at least 45 slope failures and an unknown number of debris flows in Aravaipa Canyon. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, the maximum 3-day precipitation measured at a climate station for July 29-31 was 12.04 in., which has a 1,200-year recurrence interval. Other rainfall totals from late July to August 1 in southeastern Arizona also exceeded 1,000-year recurrence intervals. The storms produced floods of record along six watercourses, and these floods had recurrence intervals of 100-500 years. Repeat photography suggests that the spate of slope failures was historically unprecedented, and geologic mapping and cosmogenic dating of ancient debris-flow deposits indicate that debris flows reaching alluvial fans in the Tucson basin are extremely rare events. Although recent watershed changes—particularly the impacts of recent wildland fires—may be important locally, the record number of slope failures and debris flows were related predominantly to extreme precipitation, not other factors such as fire history. The large number of slope failures and debris flows in an area with few such occurrences historically underscores the rarity of this type of meteorological event in southeastern Arizona. Most slope failures appeared to be shallow-seated slope failures of colluvium on steep slopes that caused deep scour of chutes and substantial aggradation of channels downstream. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we estimate that 1.5 million tons of sediment were released from slope failures into the channels of ten drainage basins. Thirty-six percent of this sediment (527,000 tons) is gravel-sized or smaller and is likely to be transported by streamflow out of the mountain drainages and into the drainage network of metropolitan Tucson. This sediment poses a potential flood hazard by reducing conveyance in fixed-section flood control structures along Rillito Creek and its major tributaries, although our estimates suggest that deposition may be small if it is distributed widely along the channel, which is expected. Using the stochastic debris-flow model LAHARZ, we simulated debris-flow transport from slope failures to the apices of alluvial fans flanking the southern Santa Catalina Mountains. Despite considerable uncertainty in applying coefficients developed from worldwide observations to conditions in the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we predicted the approximate area of depositional zones for several 2006 debris flows, particularly for Soldier Canyon. Better results could be achieved in some canyons if sediment budgets could be developed to account for alternating transport and deposition zones in channels with abrupt expansions and contractions, such as Rattlesnake Canyon.

Arizona↗
USGS1997

Field screening of water, soil, bottom sediment, and biota associated with irrigation drainage in the Dolores Project and the Mancos River Basin, southwestern Colorado, 1994

A reconnaissance investigation for the National Irrigation Water Quality Program in 1990 indicated elevated selenium concentrations in some water and biota samples collected in the Dolores Project in southwestern Colorado. High selenium concentrations also were indicated in bird samples collected in the Mancos Project in 1989. In 1994, field screenings were done in parts of the Dolores Project and Mancos River Basin to collect additional selenium data associated with irrigation inthose areas. Selenium is mobilized from soils in newly irrigated areas of the Dolores Project called the Dove Creek area, which includes newly (since 1987) irrigated land north of Cortez and south of Dove Creek.Selenium was detected in 18 of 20stream samples, and the maximum concentration was 12micrograms per liter. The Dove Creek area is unique compared to other study areas of the National Irrigation Water Quality Program becauseselenium concentrations probably are indicative of initial leaching conditions in a newly irrigated area.Selenium concentrations in nine shallow soil samples from the Dove Creek area ranged from 0.13 to 0.20 micrograms per gram. Selenium concentrations in bottom sediment from six ponds were less than the level of concern for fish and wildlife of 4 micrograms per gram. Many biota samples collected in the Dove Creek area had elevated selenium concentrations when compared to various guidelines and effect levels,although selenium concentrations in water, soil, and bottom sediment were relatively low. Selenium concentrations in 12 of 14 aquatic-invertebratesamples from ponds exceeded 3 micrograms per gram dry weight, a dietary guideline for protection of fish and wildlife. The mean seleniumconcentration of 10.3 micrograms per gram dry weight in aquatic bird eggs exceeded the guideline for reduced hatchability of 8 micrograms per gramdry weight. Two ponds in the Dove Creek area had a high selenium hazard rating based on a new protocol for assessing selenium hazard in theenvironment; however, waterfowl were reproducing at the two ponds. Three tributary streams of Mc Elmo Creek that drain irrigated areas of the Montezuma Valley south of the creek were sampled in 1994. Mud Creek probably is the largest source of selenium to Mc Elmo Creek. Most biota samples from Mud Creek had elevated selenium concentrations when compared to guidelines for dietary items and freshwater fish. Selenium concentrations in water samples collected in the Mancos River Basin upstream from Navajo Wash, which includes the Mancos Project, ranged from less than 1 to 10 micrograms per liter. Mud Creek contributed about 74 percent of the selenium load to the upper Mancos River in March 1994.Selenium concentrations were much higher in Navajo Wash; a sample collected in March had 97 micrograms per liter of selenium. Bottom-sediment samples from two ponds in the Mancos Projectexceeded the concentration of concern of 4 micrograms per gram. The highest selenium concentrations in biota samples from streams in the Mancos River Basin were for samples from Navajo Wash. Mostconcentrations in biota in the upper Mancos River Basin were less than guidelines. Mean selenium concentrations in eggs from aquatic birds collected at three ponds in the Mancos Project slightly exceed the guideline associated with reduced hatchability.Five bird livers had a mean selenium concentration of 32.6 micrograms per gram dry weight, whichslightly exceeded the mean concentration of 30 micrograms per gram dry weight that is associated with reproductive impairment. Two of the pondshad a high selenium hazard rating; however, mallard reproduction was observed in 1994 at one of the ponds that had a high selenium-hazard rating.

Colorado↗
USGS2016

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises. The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking. The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations. The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Hawaii↗
USGS1975

Earthquake shaking and damage to buildings

Ground shaking close to the causative fault of an earthquake is more intense than it was previously believed to be. This raises the possibility that large numbers of buildings and other structures are not sufficiently resistant for the intense levels of shaking that can occur close to the fault. Many structures were built before earthquake codes were adopted; others were built according to codes formulated when less was known about the intensity of near-fault shaking. Although many building types are more resistant than conventional design analyses imply, the margin of safety is difficult to quantify. Many modern structures, such as freeways, have not been subjected to and tested by near-fault shaking in major earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater). Damage patterns in recent moderate-sized earthquakes occurring in or adjacent to urbanized areas, however, indicate that many structures, including some modern ones designed to meet earthquake code requirements, cannot withstand the severe shaking that can occur close to a fault. It is necessary to review the ground motion assumed and the methods utilized in the design of important existing structures and, if necessary, to strengthen or modify the use of structures that are found to be weak. New structures situated close to active faults should be designed on the basis of ground motion estimates greater than those used in the past. The ultimate balance between risk of earthquake losses and cost for both remedial strengthening and improved earthquake-resistant construction must be decided by the public. Scientists and engineers must inform the public about earthquake shaking and its effect on structures. The exposure to damage from seismic shaking is steadily increasing because of continuing urbanization and the increasing complexity of lifeline systems, such as power, water, transportation, and communication systems. In the near future we should expect additional painful examples of the damage potential of moderate-sized earthquakes in urban areas. Over a longer time span, however, we can significantly reduce the risk to life and property from seismic shaking through better land utilization, improved building codes and construction practices, and at least the gradual replacement of poor buildings by more resistant buildings. Progress toward reducing risk from seismic shaking through better building design is slowed by deficiencies in our knowledge about the nature of damaging ground motion and the failure mechanisms in structures. For example, lacking observational data, seismologists must rely on simplified theoretical and numerical models of the earthquake process to estimate near-fault ground motion, especially for earthquakes as large as magnitude 7 and 8. Because such models have not been adequately tested against data, their reliability is unknown. Engineers lack detailed information about failure processes in structures during an earthquake. Although many structures have been instrumented to measure their response to an earthquake, few records have been obtained from buildings that actually sustained significant structural damage and few structures are properly instrumented to measure all the modes of deformation that are likely to contribute to failure. Moreover, the fact that many structures have withstood ground motion more intense than that assumed in their design indicates that conventional methods of design do not take into account important contributions to earthquake resistance by nonstructural elements and by the ability of structural elements to deform inelastically without necessarily causing failure of the structure. It is fortunate when such reserve resistance exists, but better understanding of the sources of reserve strength is needed to determine how large a margin of safety they confer and how they might be affected by changes in construction practices and materials with time. In the next few years we look forward to significant advances in knowledge and to more effective application of what is already known, largely because of substantial funding of research related to seismic engineering by the National Science Foundation . The increasing number of strong-motion seismographs operating in seismically active regions will likely provide for the first time a number of records of damaging levels of ground motion. Significant effort is being directed toward obtaining near-fault records, although many probable sites of future large earthquakes remain inadequately instrumented, especially outside the conterminous United States. New and more complete information on building response and damage mechanisms will be obtained by improved instrumentation of structures and through laboratory investigations of failure in structures and structural elements. Further developments in computer technology and in computer modeling techniques will permit more realistic simulations of the seismic response of soils and structures that take into account their inelastic behavior and their strain-dependent properties. Earthquake design codes will continually be revised to better utilize existing knowledge concerning the nature of strong ground motion and the dynamic behavior of buildings during earthquakes and to incorporate new knowledge and also experiences gained from future earthquakes. We believe that application of new knowledge, improvements in earthquake-resistant design and construction, and remedial strengthening or replacement of weak existing structures can significantly reduce our current level of exposure to earthquake hazards.

Science↗
USGS2024

Special topic—Eruption plumes and clouds

Introduction Explosive eruptions create plumes of volcanic ash and gas that can rise more than 30,000 feet (9.1 kilometers [km]) above sea level within minutes of eruption onset. The resulting clouds disperse under prevailing winds and may cause hazardous conditions hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the volcano, including in international airspace. Rapid detection and characterization of explosive activity is vital to mitigate the wide-ranging effects of volcanic ash. Ashfall thicknesses as small as a millimeter or so on the ground can affect infrastructure, agriculture, and air quality, requiring extensive clean-up procedures (Schuster, 1981; Warrick and others, 1981, U.S. Geological Survey, 2022). Volcanic clouds also pose substantial threats to aircraft. Since 1953, 88 encounters between airplanes and ash clouds have been documented worldwide (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2015, appendix F), resulting in aircraft damage and, in 9 cases, engine failure (Guffanti and others, 2010). In 1982, two large passenger planes suffered complete engine failure owing to eruptions in Indonesia (Global Volcanism Program, 1982) and a similar incident occurred over Alaska in 1989 (Casadevall, 1994). In all three cases, they were able to restart some engine capability and land safely once they emerged from the ash clouds, although with substantial damage (Guffanti and others, 2010). The clear threat to aviation has led to establishment of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) around the world to monitor and rapidly disseminate information about volcanic eruptions to the aviation community. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories issue the Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation that informs of preeruptive unrest or eruptive activity. When ash-producing eruptions do occur, volcano observatories work closely with their regional VAAC to ensure consistency and accuracy in eruption onset time, cloud altitude, ash production, and duration as reported in Volcanic Ash Advisories. Explosive volcanism in the United States and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands prompts 50–100 such advisories in any given year (table J1). This collaborative effort is greatly aided by USGS detection and monitoring of eruption clouds to ensure a timely and coordinated response. To support these efforts to provide guidance on ash transport and fallout, the USGS developed the Ash3d volcanic ash dispersion model ( https://vsc-ash.wr.usgs.gov/ash3d-gui ) (Schwaiger and others, 2012). Automated simulations are run daily by the USGS for volcanoes that are in elevated states of unrest, and in response mode when eruptions occur. During eruptions, the model output is provided to local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices to guide them in the issuance of their information products (such as special weather statements, ashfall advisories, or ashfall warnings), as well as to State and local governments and the public. Characterization of the eruption source is needed to estimate the parameters used to initialize the Ash3d model, and by the Anchorage and Washington VAACs to initialize other dispersion models that inform forecasts for the airborne volcanic cloud. The source parameters that can be provided by observation during an eruption include eruption start time, eruption cloud height over time, and eruption duration. Other, nonobservable source parameters, such as mass eruption rate and grain-size distribution, are based on empirical correlations and study of historical deposits. The goal is to provide a time series of cloud heights, mass eruption rates, and particle-size distributions that accurately reflects current conditions. When feasible, the USGS also provides guidance on the nature of ongoing eruptions and forecasts future activity using petrologic monitoring of collected tephra samples. The aims of providing accurate observable parameters are achieved through analysis of (1) near-real-time meteorological satellite data, (2) ground-based cameras (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–G, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062g.">chapter G , this volume; Orr and others, 2024), (3) weather radar, (4) volcanic lightning detection, and (5) ground-based ash sensors and sampling. Explosive eruptions can be detected by a variety of geophysical monitoring, including infrasound (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–C, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062c.">chapter C , this volume; Lyons and others, 2024) and seismicity (see of Flinders, A.F., Lowenstern, J.B., Coombs, M.L., and Poland, M.P., eds., Recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5062–B, 9 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245062b.">chapter B , this volume; Thelen and others, 2024). However, those methods cannot quantify the altitude, ash content, and dispersal dynamics of resulting volcanic clouds. Ideally, all available sources of monitoring data are synthesized to develop a coherent understanding of eruptive activity. The guidance summarized here provides a framework for characterizing volcanic clouds in the atmosphere and tracking the evolution of explosive eruption dynamics.

Scientific Investigations Report↗