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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Modeling the dynamic penetration depth of post-1950s water in unconfined aquifers using environmental tracers: Central Valley, California

The penetration depth of post-1950s recharge (D-1950) in aquifers is a marker that is frequently used to identify groundwater that is susceptible to anthropogenic contamination. Here, we compute D-1950 values at wells, interpolate them in space, and project them across time to map the moving front of modern recharge in four dimensions in the Central Valley aquifer system, California, USA. Tracers of groundwater age (tritium, carbon-14, noble gases, sulfur hexafluoride, and chlorofluorocarbons) were collected at 650 wells spatially distributed throughout the Central Valley and were fit to a lumped-parameter model that assumes a logarithmic age-depth profile in the aquifer. For samples where tritium was present (>0.3 tritium units), the model was used to predict D-1950 at wells screened above or across the modern-premodern interface (n = 484). Wells with samples where tritium was absent (≤0.3 tritium units) were used to define the depth beyond which groundwater is completely premodern (n = 166). Predicted D-1950 values were below the depth of screen bottoms for wells where groundwater is completely modern, and above the depth of screen tops for wells where groundwater is completely premodern. The interpolated surface of D-1950 is dynamic, less prone to extreme values, and produces maps with lower interpolation errors due to a higher spatial density of wells than maps based on the depth of premodern groundwater. Between 2005 and 2025, D-1950 is expected to deepen by 11 and 12 m in the northern and southern parts of the Central Valley, respectively. Areas where D-1950 increases rapidly are likely to see increases in nitrate and other anthropogenic contaminants associated with the downward moving front of modern water.

California↗

USGS2013

Electrical signatures of ethanol-liquid mixtures: implications for monitoring biofuels migration in the subsurface

Ethanol (EtOH), an emerging contaminant with potential direct and indirect environmental effects, poses threats to water supplies when spilled in large volumes. A series of experiments was directed at understanding the electrical geophysical signatures arising from groundwater contamination by ethanol. Conductivity measurements were performed at the laboratory scale on EtOH–water mixtures (0 to 0.97 v/v EtOH) and EtOH–salt solution mixtures (0 to 0.99 v/v EtOH) with and without a sand matrix using a conductivity probe and a four-electrode electrical measurement over the low frequency range (1–1000 Hz). A Lichtenecker–Rother (L–R) type mixing model was used to simulate electrical conductivity as a function of EtOH concentration in the mixture. For all three experimental treatments increasing EtOH concentration resulted in a decrease in measured conductivity magnitude (|σ|). The applied L–R model fitted the experimental data at concentration ≤ 0.4 v/v EtOH, presumably due to predominant and symmetric intermolecular (EtOH–water) interaction in the mixture. The deviation of the experimental |σ| data from the model prediction at higher EtOH concentrations may be associated with hydrophobic effects of EtOH–EtOH interactions in the mixture. The |σ| data presumably reflected changes in relative strength of the three types of interactions (water–water, EtOH–water, and EtOH–EtOH) occurring simultaneously in EtOH–water mixtures as the ratio of EtOH to water changed. No evidence of measurable polarization effects at the EtOH–water and EtOH–water–mineral interfaces over the investigated frequency range was found. Our results indicate the potential for using electrical measurements to characterize and monitor EtOH spills in the subsurface.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2023

A river basin spatial model to quantitively advance understanding of riverine tree response dynamics to water availability and hydrological management

Ecological condition continues to decline in arid and semi-arid river basins globally due to hydrological over-abstraction combined with changing climatic conditions. Whilst provision of water for the environment has been a primary approach to alleviate ecological decline, how to accurately monitor changes in riverine trees at fine spatial and temporal scales, remains a substantial challenge. This is further complicated by constantly changing water availability across expansive river basins with varying climatic zones. Within, we combine rare, fine-scale, high frequency temporal in-situ field collected data with machine learning and remote sensing, to provide a robust model that enables broadscale monitoring of physiological tree water stress response to environmental changes via actual evapotranspiration (ET). Physiological variation of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (River Red Gum) and E. largiflorens (Black Box) trees across 10 study locations in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, was captured instantaneously using sap flow sensors, substantially reducing tree response lags encountered by monitoring visual canopy changes. Actual ET measurement of both species was used to bias correct a national spatial ET product where a Random Forest model was trained using continuous timeseries of in-situ data of up to four years. Precise monthly AMLETT ( A ustralia-wide M achine L earning ET for T rees) ET outputs in 30 m pixel resolution from 2012 to 2021, were derived by incorporating additional remote sensing layers such as soil moisture, land surface temperature, radiation and EVI and NDVI in the Random Forest model. Landsat and Sentinal-2 correlation results between in-situ ET and AMLETT ET returned R 2 of 0.94 (RMSE 6.63 mm period −1 ) and 0.92 (RMSE 6.89 mm period −1 ), respectively. In comparison, correlation between in-situ ET and a national ET product returned R 2 of 0.44 (RMSE 34.08 mm period −1 ) highlighting the need for bias correction to generate accurate absolute ET values. The AMLETT method presented here, enhances environmental management in river basins worldwide. Such robust broadscale monitoring can inform water accounting and importantly, assist decisions on where to prioritize water for the environment to restore and protect key ecological assets and preserve floodplain and riparian ecological function.

The Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2024

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (−2.9 to −5.1 Bm 3 ) and Monterey counties (−6.5 to −8.7 Bm 3 ), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

California↗

USGS2008

Whole-stream response to nitrate loading in three streams draining agricultural landscapes

Physical, chemical, hydrologic, and biologic factors affecting nitrate (NO 3 − ) removal were evaluated in three agricultural streams draining orchard/dairy and row crop settings. Using 3-d “snapshots” during biotically active periods, we estimated reach-level NO 3 − sources, NO 3 − mass balance, in-stream processing (nitrification, denitrification, and NO 3 − uptake), and NO 3 − retention potential associated with surface water transport and ground water discharge. Ground water contributed 5 to 11% to stream discharge along the study reaches and 8 to 42% of gross NO 3 − input. Streambed processes potentially reduced 45 to 75% of ground water NO 3 − before discharge to surface water. In all streams, transient storage was of little importance for surface water NO 3 − retention. Estimated nitrification (1.6–4.4 mg N m −2 h −1 ) and unamended denitrification rates (2.0–16.3 mg N m −2 h −1 ) in sediment slurries were high relative to pristine streams. Denitrification of NO 3 − was largely independent of nitrification because both stream and ground water were sources of NO 3 − Unamended denitrification rates extrapolated to the reach-scale accounted for <5% of NO 3 − exported from the reaches minimally reducing downstream loads. Nitrate retention as a percentage of gross NO 3 − inputs was >30% in an organic-poor, autotrophic stream with the lowest denitrification potentials and highest benthic chlorophyll a , photosynthesis/respiration ratio, pH, dissolved oxygen, and diurnal NO 3 − variation. Biotic processing potentially removed 75% of ground water NO 3 − at this site, suggesting an important role for photosynthetic assimilation of ground water NO 3 − relative to subsurface denitrification as water passed directly through benthic diatom beds.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2008

Comparative study of transport processes of nitrogen, phosphorus, and herbicides to streams in five agricultural basins, USA

Agricultural chemical transport to surface water and the linkage to other hydrological compartments, principally ground water, was investigated at five watersheds in semiarid to humid climatic settings. Chemical transport was affected by storm water runoff, soil drainage, irrigation, and how streams were linked to shallow ground water systems. Irrigation practices and timing of chemical use greatly affected nutrient and pesticide transport in the semiarid basins. Irrigation with imported water tended to increase ground water and chemical transport, whereas the use of locally pumped irrigation water may eliminate connections between streams and ground water, resulting in lower annual loads. Drainage pathways in humid environments are important because the loads may be transported in tile drains, or through varying combinations of ground water discharge, and overland flow. In most cases, overland flow contributed the greatest loads, but a significant portion of the annual load of nitrate and some pesticide degradates can be transported under base-flow conditions. The highest basin yields for nitrate were measured in a semiarid irrigated system that used imported water and in a stream dominated by tile drainage in a humid environment. Pesticide loads, as a percent of actual use (LAPU), showed the effects of climate and geohydrologic conditions. The LAPU values in the semiarid study basin in Washington were generally low because most of the load was transported in ground water discharge to the stream. When herbicides are applied during the rainy season in a semiarid setting, such as simazine in the California basin, LAPU values are similar to those in the Midwest basins. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2023

Developing a stochastic hydrological model for informing lake water level drawdown management

Winter drawdown (WD) is a common lake management tool for multiple purposes such as flood control, aquatic vegetation reduction, and lake infrastructure maintenance. To minimize adverse impacts to a lake’s ecosystem, regulatory agencies may provide managers with general guidelines for drawdown and refill timing, drawdown magnitude, and outflow limitations. However, there is significant uncertainty associated with the potential to meet management targets due to variability in lake characteristics and hydrometeorology of each lake’s basin, making the use of modeling tools a necessity. In this context, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level drawdown management (HMF-Lake) and evaluated it at 15 Massachusetts lakes where WDs have been applied over multiple years for vegetation control. HMF-Lake is based on the daily lake water balance, with inflows simulated by a lumped rainfall-runoff model (Cemaneige-GR4J) and outflow rate calculated by a modified Target Storage and Release Based Method (TSRB). The model showed a satisfactory performance of simulating historical water levels (0.53 ≤ NSE ≤ 0.86), however, uncertainties from meteorological inputs and TSRB determined lake outflow rate affected the result accuracy. To account for these uncertainties, the model was executed stochastically to assess the ability of study lakes to follow the Massachusetts’ general WD guidelines: drawdown by Dec 1 and fully refilled by Apr 1. By using the stochastic HMF-Lake, the probabilities of each lake to reach the drawdown level by Dec 1 were calculated for different drawdown magnitudes (1–6 ft). The probability results suggest it was generally less possible for most of study lakes to achieve a drawdown of 3 ft or more by Dec 1. Moreover, we employed the stochastic model to derive the annual latest refill starting dates that ensure a 95 % probability of reaching the normal water level by Apr 1. We found starting a refill in March for drawdowns up to 6 ft was feasible for most of study lakes. These results provide lake managers with a quantitative understanding of the lake’s ability to follow the state guidelines. The model may be used to systematically evaluate current WD management strategies at state or regional scales and support adaptive WD management under changing climates.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

Nitrogen speciation and trends, and prediction of denitrification extent, in shallow US groundwater

Uncertainties surrounding nitrogen cycling complicate assessments of the environmental effects of nitrogen use and our understanding of the global carbon–nitrogen cycle. In this paper, we synthesize data from 877 ambient-monitoring wells across the US to frame broad patterns of nitrogen speciation and trends. At these sites, groundwater frequently contains substantial co-occurring NO 3 − and XSN 2 (N 2 from denitrification), reflecting active/ongoing denitrification and/or a mixture of undenitrified and denitrified groundwater. NO 3 − and NH 4 + essentially do not co-occur, indicating that the dominant source of NH 4 + at these sites likely is not dissimilatory reduction of NO 3 − to NH 4 + . Positive correlations of NH 4 + with apparent age, CH 4 , dissolved organic carbon, and indicators of reduced conditions are consistent with NH 4 + mobilization from degradation of aquifer organic matter and contraindicate an anthropogenic source of NH 4 + for most sites. Glacial aquifers and eastern sand and gravel aquifers generally have lower proportions of NO 3 − and greater proportions of XSN 2 than do fractured rock and karst aquifers and western sand and gravel aquifers. NO 3 − dominates in the youngest groundwater, but XSN 2 increases as residence time increases. Temporal patterns of nitrogen speciation and concentration reflect (1) changing NO 3 − loads over time, (2) groundwater residence-time controls on NH 4 + mobilization from solid phases, and (3) groundwater residence-time controls on denitrification. A simple classification tree using readily available variables (a national coverage of soil water depth, generalized geology) or variables reasonably estimated in many aquifers (residence time) identifies categorical denitrification extent (<10%, 10–50%, and >50%) with 79% accuracy in an independent testing set, demonstrating a predictive application based on the interconnected effects of redox, geology, and residence time.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2011

Groundwater chemistry near an impoundment for produced water, Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA

The Powder River Basin is one of the largest producers of coal-bed natural gas (CBNG) in the United States. An important environmental concern in the Basin is the fate of the large amounts of groundwater extracted during CBNG production. Most of this produced water is disposed of in unlined surface impoundments. A 6-year study of groundwater flow and water chemistry at one impoundment, Skewed Reservoir, has produced the most detailed data set for any impoundment in the Basin. Data were collected from a network of 21 observation wells and three suction lysimeters. A groundwater mound formed atop bedrock within initially unsaturated, unconsolidated deposits underlying the reservoir. Heterogeneity in physical and chemical properties of sediments resulted in complex groundwater flow paths and highly variable groundwater chemistry. Sulfate, bicarbonate, sodium, and magnesium were the dominant ions in all areas, but substantial variability existed in relative concentrations; pH varied from less than 3 to more than 9, and total dissolved solids concentrations ranged from less than 5000 to greater than 100,000 mg/L. Selenium was a useful tracer of reservoir water; selenium concentrations exceeded 300 μg/L in samples obtained from 18 of the 24 sampling points. Groundwater travel time from the reservoir to a nearby alluvial aquifer (a linear distance of 177 m) was calculated at 474 days on the basis of selenium concentrations. The produced water is not the primary source of solutes in the groundwater. Naturally occurring salts and minerals within the unsaturated zone, dissolved and mobilized by infiltrating impoundment water, account for most of the solute mass in groundwater. Gypsum dissolution, cation-exchange, and pyrite oxidation appear to be important reactions. The complex geochemistry and groundwater flow paths at the study site underscore the difficulty in assessing effects of surface impoundments on water resources within the Powder River Basin.

Wyoming↗

USGS2010

Seasonal groundwater contribution to crop-water use assessed with lysimeter observations and model simulations

Groundwater evaporation can play an important role in crop-water use where the water table is shallow. Lysimeters are often used to quantify the groundwater evaporation contribution influenced by a broad range of environmental factors. However, it is difficult for such field facilities, which are operated under limited conditions within limited time, to capture the whole spectrum of capillary upflow with regard to the inter-seasonal variability of climate, especially rainfall. Therefore, in this work, the method of combining lysimeter and numerical experiments was implemented to investigate seasonal groundwater contribution to crop-water use. Groundwater evaporation experiments were conducted through a weighing lysimeter at an agricultural experiment station located within an irrigation district in the lower Yellow River Basin for two winter wheat growth seasons. A HYDRUS-1D model was first calibrated and validated with weighing lysimeter data, and then was employed to perform scenario simulations of groundwater evaporation under different depths to water table (DTW) and water input (rainfall plus irrigation) driven by long term meteorological data. The scenario simulations revealed that the seasonally averaged groundwater evaporation amount was linearly correlated to water input for different values of DTW. The linear regression could explain more than 70% of the variability. The seasonally averaged ratio of the groundwater contribution to crop-water use varied with the seasonal water input and DTW. The ratio reached as high as 75% in the case of DTW=1.0. m and no irrigation, and as low as 3% in the case of DTW=3.0. m and three irrigation applications. The results also revealed that the ratio of seasonal groundwater evaporation to potential evapotranspiration could be fitted to an exponential function of the DTW that may be applied to estimate seasonal groundwater evaporation. In this case study of multilayered soil profile, the depth at which groundwater may evaporate at potential rate was 0.60-0.65. m, and the extinction depth of groundwater evaporation was approximately 3.8. m. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2015

Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations

Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model for juvenile (<1 year old) sandhill crane Grus canadensis recruitment of the Rocky Mountain Population (RMP). We consider spatial climate predictors motivated by hypotheses of how drought across multiple time-scales and spring/summer weather affects recruitment. Our predictive modelling framework focuses on developing a single model that includes all relevant predictor variables, regardless of collinearity. This model is then optimized for prediction by controlling model complexity using a data-driven approach that marginalizes or removes irrelevant predictors from the model. Specifically, we highlight two approaches of statistical regularization, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression. Our optimal predictive Bayesian LASSO and ridge regression models were similar and on average 37% superior in predictive accuracy to an explanatory modelling approach. Our predictive models confirmed a priori hypotheses that drought and cold summers negatively affect juvenile recruitment in the RMP. The effects of long-term drought can be alleviated by short-term wet spring–summer months; however, the alleviation of long-term drought has a much greater positive effect on juvenile recruitment. The number of freezing days and snowpack during the summer months can also negatively affect recruitment, while spring snowpack has a positive effect. Breeding habitat, mediated through climate, is a limiting factor on population growth of sandhill cranes in the RMP, which could become more limiting with a changing climate (i.e. increased drought). These effects are likely not unique to cranes. The alteration of hydrological patterns and water levels by drought may impact many migratory, wetland nesting birds in the Rocky Mountains and beyond. Generalizable predictive models (trained by out-of-sample fit and based on ecological hypotheses) are needed by conservation and management decision-makers. Statistical regularization improves predictions and provides a general framework for fitting models with a large number of predictors, even those with collinearity, to simultaneously identify an optimal predictive model while conducting rigorous Bayesian model selection. Our framework is important for understanding population dynamics under a changing climate and has direct applications for making harvest and habitat management decisions.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

USGS2023

Four decades of regional wet deposition, local bulk deposition, and stream-water chemistry show the influence of nearby land use on forested streams in Central Appalachia☆

Hydrologic monitoring began on two headwater streams (<1 km 2 ) on the University of Kentucky's Robinson Forest in 1971. We evaluated stream-water (1974–2013) and bulk-deposition (wet + dust) (1984–2013) chemistry in the context of regional wet-deposition patterns that showed decreases in both sulfate and nitrate concentrations as well as proximal surface-mine expansion. Decadal time steps (1974–83, 1984–93, 1994–2003, 2004–2013) were used to quantify change. Comparison of the first two decades showed similarly decreased sulfate (minimum flow-adjusted annual-mean concentration of ≈13.5 mg/L in 1982 to 8.8 mg/L in 1992) and increased pH (6.6–6.8) in both streams, reflecting contemporaneous changes in both bulk and wet deposition. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate (0.14 to >0.25 mg/L) and base cations increased between these two decades, coinciding with expansion of surface mining between 1985 and 1995. In 2004, stream-water pH (6.7 in 2004), sulfate (9.2 mg/L), and nitrate (>0.11 mg/L) were similar to 1982, despite wet-deposition concentrations being lower. Base-cation concentrations were higher in the stream adjacent to ongoing surface mining relative to the stream situated near the middle of the experimental forest. However, pH decreased to approximately 5.7 by 2013 for both streams, which, combined with a shift in dominant cations from calcium to magnesium and potassium, indicates that the soil-buffering capacity of this landscape has been exceeded. Ratios of bulk deposition and stream-water concentrations indicate enrichment of sulfate (1.7–25.2) and cations (0.5–64.8), but not nitrogen (0.1–5.6), indicating that the Forest is not nitrogen saturated and that ongoing changes in water-quality are sulfate driven. When concentrations were adjusted to account for changes in streamflow (climate) over the 4 decades, external influences (land management/regulation) explained most change. The amount and direction of change differed among constituents, both between consecutive decades and between the first and last decades, reflecting the influence of localized surface mining even as regional wet deposition continued to improve due to the Clean Air Act. The implication is that localized stressors have the potential to out-pace the benefits of national environmental policies for communities that depend on local water-resources in similar environments.

Kentucky↗

USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗

USGS1993

Hydrologic and land-use factors associated with herbicides and nitrate in near-surface aquifers

Selected herbicides, atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) metabolites, and NO − 3 were examined in near-surface unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers in the midcontinental USA to study the hydrogeologic, spatial, and seasonal distribution of these contaminants. Groundwater samples were collected from 303 wells during the spring and late summer of 1991. At least one herbicide or atrazine metabolite was detected in 24% of the samples collected for herbicide analysis (reporting limit 0.05 µ g/L). No herbicide concentration exceeded the USEPA's maximum contaminant level (MCL) or health advisory level. The most frequently detected compound was the at razine metabolite deethylatrazine [2-amino-4-chloro-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine] followed by atrazine, deisopropylatrazine [2-amino-4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-s-triazine], prometon (2,4-bis(isopropylamino)-6-methyoxy-s-triazine), metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1methylethyl)acetamide], alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)acetamide], metribuzin [4-amino-6-( tert -butyl)-3-methylthio- as -triazine-5(4H)-one], simazine [2-chloro-4,6-bis(ethylamino)-s-triazine], and cyanazine [2-[[4-chloro-6-(ethylamino)-1,3,5-triazin-2-yl]amino]-2-methylpropionitrile]. Nitrite plus nitrate, as nitrogen (N), exceeding 3.0 mg/L (excess NO − 3 ), was found in 29% of the samples, and 6% had − 3 exceeding the MCL of 10 mg/L. Ammonium as N was detected in excess of 0.01 mg/L in 78% of the samples. A nonlinear increase in the frequency of atrazine detection occurred with decreases in reporting limit. The frequency of atrazine residue detection (atrazine + deethylatrazine + deisopropylatrazine) was 25% greater than for atrazine alone. Herbicide detections and excess NO − 3 were notably lacking in the eastern part of the study region where it was estimated that herbicide and fertilizer use were among the largest in the region. Prometon, the second most frequently detected herbicide, was associated with non-agricultural land use. Herbicide and excess NO − 3 were more frequent in unconsolidated aquifers than in bedrock aquifers. Aquifer depth, as direct measurement of proximity to recharge sources, was inversely related to frequency of herbicide detection and excess NO − 3 .

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS1971

Effects of karst features on circulation of water in carbonate rocks in coastal areas

The normal balance between fresh water in coastal aquifers and sea water applies also to carbonate-rock aquifers that have been karstified, but there are local modifications in the balance that need to be considered. Uneven distribution of permeability, expressed by a network of solution channels bounded by relatively impermeabler rock, causes an uneven distribution of head of the environmental water along the seacoast. Where sinkholes and (or) vertical solution shafts below sea level penetrate the aquifer, the fresh ground water may discharge through these karst features if the fresh-water head is greater than that of the salt water. However, under some conditions the salt-water head may exceed that of the fresh water, and the direction of movement is reversed as sea water flows into the aquifer. This sea-water flow into the aquifer occurs (1) where sinkholes, acting as “cased wells,” penetrate less permeable rock before reaching a lateral solution channel and (2) where (or when) the fresh-water head is less than that required to balance the salt water. On Andros Island, Bahamas, the range in tide (as much as 5 feet) from low tide to high tide is sufficient to cause such a reversal locally. During low tide the salt-water head becomes sufficiently low that the ground-water head exceeds that of the sea water, and the ground water flows through the sinkholes to the ocean floor; during high tide sea water flows in the sinkholes. In the Adriatic Sea along the coast of Yugoslavia, apparently the fresh-water head is sufficient to produce perennial springs in some localities, but in other areas, as in the Bay of Kastela near Split, the fresh-water head becomes low enough during some seasons that the flow is reversed and salt water enters the aquifer through the karst features. The development of sinkholes and other karst features near the present coast and extending below sea level occurred generally during a low stand of the Pleistocene sea when the top of the saturated zone stood lower than the bottom of the deepest sinkholes or natural wells. Integrated evaluations of (1) the distribution of permeability in coastal karst regions and (2) the principles relating to the dynamic balance between fresh aquifer water and sea water are leading to better knowledge of methods that may salvage much karst water which is lost to the sea.

Split↗

USGS2013

Appraising options to reduce shallow groundwater tables and enhance flow conditions over regional scales in an irrigated alluvial aquifer system

Some of the world’s key agricultural production systems face big challenges to both water quantity and quality due to shallow groundwater that results from long-term intensive irrigation, namely waterlogging and salinity, water losses, and environmental problems. This paper focuses on water quantity issues, presenting finite-difference groundwater models developed to describe shallow water table levels, non-beneficial groundwater consumptive use, and return flows to streams across two regions within an irrigated alluvial river valley in southeastern Colorado, USA. The models are calibrated and applied to simulate current baseline conditions in the alluvial aquifer system and to examine actions for potentially improving these conditions. The models provide a detailed description of regional-scale subsurface unsaturated and saturated flow processes, thereby enabling detailed spatiotemporal description of groundwater levels, recharge to infiltration ratios, partitioning of ET originating from the unsaturated and saturated zones, and groundwater flows, among other variables. Hybrid automated and manual calibration of the models is achieved using extensive observations of groundwater hydraulic head, groundwater return flow to streams, aquifer stratigraphy, canal seepage, total evapotranspiration, the portion of evapotranspiration supplied by upflux from the shallow water table, and irrigation flows. Baseline results from the two regional-scale models are compared to model predictions under variations of four alternative management schemes: (1) reduced seepage from earthen canals, (2) reduced irrigation applications, (3) rotational lease fallowing (irrigation water leased to municipalities, resulting in temporary dry-up of fields), and (4) combinations of these. The potential for increasing the average water table depth by up to 1.1 and 0.7 m in the two respective modeled regions, thereby reducing the threat of waterlogging and lowering non-beneficial consumptive use from adjacent fallow and naturally-vegetated lands, is demonstrated for the alternative management intervention scenarios considered. Net annual average savings of up to about 9.9 million m 3 (8000 ac ft) and 2.3 million m 3 (1900 ac ft) of non-beneficial groundwater consumptive use is demonstrated for the study periods in each of the two respective study regions. Alternative water management interventions achieve varying degrees of benefits in each of the two regions, suggesting a need to adopt region-specific interventions and avoid a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Impacts of the considered interventions on return flows to the river were predicted to be significant, highlighting the need for flow augmentation to comply with an interstate river compact and portending beneficial impacts on solute loading.

Colorado↗

USGS2003

The saturated zone at Yucca Mountain: An overview of the characterization and assessment of the saturated zone as a barrier to potential radionuclide migration

The US Department of Energy is pursuing Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for the development of a geologic repository for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste, if the repository is able to meet applicable radiation protection standards established by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Effective performance of such a repository would rely on a number of natural and engineered barriers to isolate radioactive waste from the accessible environment. Groundwater beneath Yucca Mountain is the primary medium through which most radionuclides might move away from the potential repository. The saturated zone (SZ) system is expected to act as a natural barrier to this possible movement of radionuclides both by delaying their transport and by reducing their concentration before they reach the accessible environment. Information obtained from Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project activities is used to estimate groundwater flow rates through the site-scale SZ flow and transport model area and to constrain general conceptual models of groundwater flow in the site-scale area. The site-scale conceptual model is a synthesis of what is known about flow and transport processes at the scale required for total system performance assessment of the site. This knowledge builds on and is consistent with knowledge that has accumulated at the regional scale but is more detailed because more data are available at the site-scale level. The mathematical basis of the site-scale model and the associated numerical approaches are designed to assist in quantifying the uncertainty in the permeability of rocks in the geologic framework model and to represent accurately the flow and transport processes included in the site-scale conceptual model. Confidence in the results of the mathematical model was obtained by comparing calculated to observed hydraulic heads, estimated to measured permeabilities, and lateral flow rates calculated by the site-scale model to those calculated by the regional-scale flow model. In addition, it was confirmed that the flow paths leaving the region of the potential repository are consistent with those inferred from gradients of measured head and those independently inferred from water-chemistry data. The general approach of the site-scale SZ flow and transport model analysis is to calculate unit breakthrough curves for radionuclides at the interface between the SZ and the biosphere using the three-dimensional site-scale SZ flow and transport model. Uncertainties are explicitly incorporated into the site-scale SZ flow and transport abstractions through key parameters and conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗