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Results for “Journal of Environmental Evidence”

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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS1997

Influence of basin-scale physical variables on life history characteristics of cutthroat trout in Yellowstone Lake

Individual spawning populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki bouvieri differ in life history characteristics associated with broad spatial and temporal environmental patterns, but relationships between specific life history characteristics of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and physical aspects of the environment are poorly understood. We examined basin-scale physical characteristics of tributary drainages and subbasins of Yellowstone Lake in relation to timing (peak and duration) of lacustrine–adfluvial Yellowstone cutthroat trout spawning migrations and mean length of cutthroat trout spawners in 27 tributaries to the lake. Stream drainages varied along gradients that can be described by mean aspect, mean elevation, and drainage and stream size. Approximately two-thirds of the variation in the timing of the peak of the annual cutthroat trout spawning migrations and average length of spawners was explained by third-order polynomial regressions with mean aspect and basin area as predictor variables. Because most cutthroat trout ascend tributaries soon after peak runoff, it appears that the influence of basin-scale physical variables on the date of the migration peak is manifested by the pattern of stream discharge. Spawner length does not seem to be a direct function of stream size in the Yellowstone Lake watershed, and aspect of the tributary basin seems to have a greater influence on the body length of cutthroat trout spawners than does stream size. Mechanisms that explain how the interaction of basin-scale physical variables influence spawner length were not investigated directly; however, we found evidence of distinct aggregations of cutthroat trout that are related to physical and limnological characteristics of the lake subbasins, and there is some indication that lake residence may be related to tributary location.

Wyoming↗
USGS2016

Hydrochemical determination of source water contributions to Lake Lungo and Lake Ripasottile (central Italy)

Lake Lungo and Lake Ripasottile are two shallow (4-5 m) lakes located in the Rieti Basin, central Italy, that have been described previously as surface outcroppings of the groundwater table. In this work, the two lakes as well as springs and rivers that represent their potential source waters are characterized physio-chemically and isotopically, using a combination of environmental tracers. Temperature and pH were measured and water samples were analyzed for alkalinity, major ion concentration, and stable isotope (δ2H, δ18O, δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon, and δ34S and δ18O of sulfate) composition. Chemical data were also investigated in terms of local meteorological data (air temperature, precipitation) to determine the sensitivity of lake parameters to changes in the surrounding environment. Groundwater represented by samples taken from Santa Susanna Spring was shown to be distinct with SO42- and Mg2+ content of 270 and 29 mg/L, respectively, and heavy sulfate isotopic composition(δ34S=15.2 ‰ and δ18O=10‰). Outflow from the Santa Susanna Spring enters Lake Ripasottile via a canal and both spring and lake water exhibits the same chemical distinctions and comparatively low seasonal variability. Major ion concentrations in Lake Lungo are similar to the Vicenna Riara Spring and are interpreted to represent the groundwater locally recharged within the plain. The δ13CDIC exhibit the same groupings as the other chemical parameters, providing supporting evidence of the source relationships. Lake Lungo exhibited exceptional ranges of δ13CDIC (±5 ‰) and δ2H, δ18O (±5 ‰ and ±7 ‰, respectively), attributed to sensitivity to seasonal changes. The hydrochemistry results, particularly major ion data, highlight how the two lakes, though geographically and morphologically similar, represent distinct hydrochemical facies. These data also show a different response in each lake to temperature and precipitation patterns in the basin that may be attributed to lake water retention time. The sensitivity of each lake to meteorological patterns can be used to understand the potential effects from long-term climate variability.

Lake Lungo, Lake Ripasottile↗
USGS1989

Late Quaternary paleolimnology of Walker Lake, Nevada

Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology. ?? 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗
USGS2000

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

Alberta, Manitoba, Montana, North Dakota, Saskatch↗
USGS2020

Environmental tracer evidence for connection between shallow and bedrock aquifers and high intrinsic susceptibility to contamination of the conterminous U.S. glacial aquifer

Covering a large portion of the northern conterminous United States (1.87 x 106 km2), the glacial aquifer serves as the primary water supply for 39 million public and domestic water users. Mean groundwater age, groundwater age distribution, and susceptibility to land surface contamination, using a new metric (Susceptibility Index; SI) based on the full age distribution and less prone to bias than estimated mean age, is reported for 168 public and domestic wells across the aquifer. Comparison of groundwater age metrics between well networks of varying spatial scale suggest an extensive sample network of equally spaced, long screened interval wells can be used to characterize aquifer wide groundwater age. Estimated mean age ranges from 1 to 50,000 years and, according to the composite age distribution, approximately 63 percent of all sampled water recharged after 1950 (i.e., modern) and 18 percent of the sampled water was recharged greater than 10,000 years ago. The later finding strongly suggests a connection between the glacial aquifer and underlying bedrock aquifers. Statistical analysis of glacial aquifer hydrogeology and age metrics show groundwater ages are young (less than few 100 years) and more susceptible to land surface contamination (larger SI) in unconfined and shallow portions of the aquifer. Old groundwater (greater than 1000 years) is more often associated with thicker sequences of fine grain sediments and/or shallow bedrock. Calculated SI is shown to be more strongly related to the number of land surface contaminants detected than mean age or fraction modern. Statistical analysis of SI and hydrogeology indicates SI is largely dictated by well depth and confinement. This study demonstrates how sample network design can be used to characterize groundwater age of large aquifers with a limited number of samples and how interpretation of environmental tracers can be used to improve conceptual models of groundwater aquifers and identify groundwater susceptible to contamination.

Glacial aquifer↗
USGS2012

Lake sturgeon population attributes and reproductive structure in the Namakan Reservoir, Minnesota and Ontario

Quantified were the age, growth, mortality and reproductive structure of lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) collected in the US and Canadian waters of the Namakan Reservoir. The hypotheses were tested that (i) age and growth of lake sturgeon in the Namakan Reservoir would differ by sex and reproductive stage of maturity, and (ii) that the relative strength of year-classes of lake sturgeon in the reservoir would be affected by environmental variables. To quantify age, growth and mortality of the population, existing data was used from a multi-agency database containing information on all lake sturgeon sampled in the reservoir from 2004 to 2009. Lake sturgeon were sampled in the Minnesota and Ontario waters of the Namakan Reservoir using multi-filament gillnets 1.8 m high and 30–100 m long and varying in mesh size from 178 to 356 mm stretch. Reproductive structure of the lake sturgeon was assessed only during spring 2008 and 2009 using plasma testosterone and estradiol-17β concentrations. Ages of lake sturgeon >75 cm ranged from 9 to 86 years (n = 533, mean = 36 years). A catch-curve analysis using the 1981–1953 year classes estimated total annual mortality of adults to be 4.8% and annual survival as 95.2%. Using logistic regression analysis, it was found that total annual precipitation was positively associated with lake sturgeon year-class strength in the Namakan Reservoir. A 10 cm increase in total annual precipitation was associated with at least a 39% increase in the odds of occurrence of a strong year class of lake sturgeon in the reservoir. Plasma steroid analysis revealed a sex ratio of 2.4 females: 1 male and, on average, 10% of female and 30% of male lake sturgeon were reproductively mature each year (i.e. potential spawners). Moreover, there was evidence based on re-captured male fish of both periodic and annual spawning, as well as the ability of males to rapidly undergo gonadal maturation prior to spawning. Knowledge of lake sturgeon reproductive structure and factors influencing recruitment success contribute to the widespread conservation efforts for this threatened species.

Minnesota, Ontario↗
USGS2022

What common-garden experiments tell us about climate responses in plants

Common garden experiments are indoor or outdoor plantings of species or populations collected from multiple distinct geographic locations, grown together under shared conditions. These experiments examine a range of questions for theory and application using a variety of methods for analysis. The eight papers of this special feature comprise a cross section of contemporary approaches, summarized and synthesized here by what they tell us about the relationships between climate-related trait spectra and fitness optima. Four of the eight papers are based on field experiments in prairie, desert, Mediterranean and boreal biomes. Representative of many common garden experiments, these experiments reveal consistent evidence of traits varying with population climate provenance, but evidence of a tradeoff between growth and tolerance traits or of consistent fitness optimization at home is scant, in contrast to trait theory. Two synthesis papers highlight dominant patterns of trait divergence, including for an exotic invasive species. One theoretical paper warned that unknown kinship relationships between populations can result in the misidentification of adaptive trait divergence. A third synthesis paper formulated novel and ambitious goals for common-garden studies through including measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. The featured papers discuss multiple avenues for improving common garden studies. Genomic analysis, together with the quantification of kinship relationships, will continue to reveal the influence of environmental drivers on gene selection. Measuring a more complete set of fitness traits, especially for traits related to regeneration, will permit the development of projection models to explicitly link trait spectra, climate patterns and fitness consequences. More standardized data reporting will additionally improve abilities to synthesize findings across experiments. Testing population performance in competition with other species will produce more robust fitness comparisons between genotypes, especially for slower-growing genotypes in higher-resource environments. Adding gardens in and beyond climatic edge locations will furthermore strengthen the understanding of population failure and species exclusion. Finally, there is unrealized potential in adding ecosystem-level observations to common-garden studies that will enhance integrative analysis across scales of biological organization and scientific domains. Synthesis . With novel, creative designs, data integration and synthesis, common garden experiments will continue to advance the understanding of trait ensembles interacting with climate across scales of biological organization, provide pivotal data for global change models and guide ecological applications such as restoration of habitats for rare and climate sensitive species.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2012

Rebuilding after collapse: evidence for long-term cohort dynamics in the native Hawaiian rain forest

Questions: Do long-term observations in permanent plots confirm the conceptual model of Metrosideros polymorpha cohort dynamics as postulated in 1987? Do regeneration patterns occur independently of substrate age, i.e. of direct volcanic disturbance impact? Location: The windward mountain slopes of the younger Mauna Loa and the older Mauna Kea volcanoes (island of Hawaii, USA). Methods: After widespread forest decline (dieback), permanent plots were established in 1976 in 13 dieback and 13 non-dieback patches to monitor the population structure of M. polymorpha at ca. 5-yr intervals. Within each plot of 20 × 20 m, all trees with DBH >2.5 cm were individually tagged, measured and tree vigour assessed; regeneration was quantified in 16 systematically placed subplots of 3 × 5 m. Data collected in the subplots included the total number of M. polymorpha seedlings and saplings (five stem height classes). Here we analyse monitoring data from six time steps from 1976 to 2003 using repeated measures ANOVA to test specific predictions derived from the 1987 conceptual model. Results: Regeneration was significantly different between dieback and non-dieback plots. In dieback plots, the collapse in the 1970s was followed by a ‘sapling wave’ that by 2003 led to new cohort stands of M. polymorpha. In non-dieback stands, seedling emergence did not result in sapling waves over the same period. Instead, a ‘sapling gap’ (i.e. very few or no M. polymorpha saplings) prevailed as typical for mature stands. Canopy dieback in 1976, degree of recovery by 2003 and the number of living trees in 2003 were unrelated to substrate age. Conclusions: Population development of M. polymorpha supports the cohort dynamics model, which predicts rebuilding of the forest with the same canopy species after dieback. The lack of association with substrate age suggests that the long-term maintenance of cohort structure in M. polymorpha does not depend on volcanic disturbance but may be related to other environmental mechanisms, such as climate anomalies.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2004

EXAFS study of mercury(II) sorption to Fe- and Al-(hydr)oxides - II. Effects of chloride and sulfate

Common complexing ligands such as chloride and sulfate can significantly impact the sorption of Hg(II) to particle surfaces in aqueous environmental systems. To examine the effects of these ligands on Hg(II) sorption to mineral sorbents, macroscopic Hg(II) uptake measurements were conducted at pH 6 and [Hg]i=0.5 mM on goethite (??-FeOOH), ??-alumina (??-Al2O3), and bayerite (??-Al(OH)3) in the presence of chloride or sulfate, and the sorption products were characterized by extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. The presence of chloride resulted in reduced uptake of Hg(II) on all three substrates over the Cl- concentration ([Cl-]) range 10-5 to 10-2 M, lowering Hg surface coverages on goethite, ??-alumina, and bayerite from 0.42 to 0.07 ??mol/m2, 0.06 to 0.006 ??mol/m2, and 0.55 to 0.39 ??mol/m2 ([Cl -]=10-5 to 10-3 M only), respectively. This reduction in Hg(II) uptake is primarily a result of the formation of stable, nonsorbing aqueous HgCl2 complexes in solution, limiting the amount of free Hg(II) available to sorb. At higher [Cl-] beam reduction of Hg(II) to Hg(I) was observed, resulting in the possible formation of aqueous Hg2Cl2 species and the precipitation of calomel, Hg 2Cl2(s). The presence of sulfate caused enhanced Hg(II) uptake over the sulfate concentration ([SO42-]) range 10-5 to 0.9 M, increasing Hg surface coverages on goethite, ??-alumina, and bayerite from 0.39 to 0.45 ??mol/m2, 0.11 to 0.38 ??mol/m2, and 0.36 to 3.33 ??mol/m2, respectively. This effect is likely due to the direct sorption or accumulation of sulfate ions at the substrate interface, effectively reducing the positive surface charge that electrostatically inhibits Hg(II) sorption. Spectroscopic evidence for ternary surface complexation was observed in isolated cases, specifically in the Hg-goethite-sulfate system at high [SO42-] and in the Hg-goethite-chloride system. ?? 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Journal of Colloid and Interface Science↗
USGS2017

Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies and observations identified contaminants, nutrient loading, or changes in benthic habitat as possible causes for fish species declines in the Conasauga River. Our analysis provides baseline information that could be used to assess effectiveness of future management actions in the Conasauga or Etowah rivers, and illustrates the use of dynamic occupancy models to evaluate evidence of faunal decline from time-series data.

Georgia↗
USGS2011

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and identification of protection or rehabilitation sites.

New York↗
USGS2021

Conservation of northwestern and southwestern pond turtles: Threats, population size estimates, and population viability analysis

Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida . Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT ( P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Survival, cause-specific mortality, and population growth of white-tailed deer in western Virginia

Understanding the role of recruitment in population dynamics of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is important for management. In the central Appalachian Mountains, deer are part of a largely forested ecosystem that supports 3 carnivore species thought to be capable of influencing white-tailed deer recruitment: black bears ( Urus americanus ), coyotes ( Canis latrans ), and bobcats ( Lynx rufus ). Yet little is known about predation, how other environmental factors influence recruitment, or the importance of neonate survival to white-tailed deer population performance in the region. Our objectives were to identify causes of mortality for neonates, analyze effects of landscape attributes on survival of neonates, estimate survival rates for neonates and adult female white-tailed deer, and to model population growth trends based on current vital rates and hypothetical harvest and neonate survival scenarios. During 2019–2020, we captured 57 neonate deer in Bath County, Virginia, USA, by monitoring 38 pregnant females equipped with global positioning system collars and vaginal implant transmitters and by conducting transect searches for recently born neonates. We observed 37 neonate mortalities and identified cause of death using field and genetic evidence. Mortalities included 28 predation events and 9 deaths from other causes (e.g., abandonment, malnutrition, disease). Black bears accounted for 48.6% of neonate mortalities, and 64.2% of predation events ( n = 18), followed by bobcats ( n = 5) and coyotes ( n = 3). Annual survival for adult female deer was 0.871 and neonate survival to 12 weeks old was 0.310. Elevation was a significant predictor of neonate survival; mortality risk increased 20% for every 100-m increase in elevation. Models of annual population growth using observed vital rates predicted an increasing population (λ = 1.10). A 10% increase in female harvest would still result in a potential population increase of 2% (λ = 1.02), but a 20% increase in harvest rate would result in a potential 7% decline (λ = 0.93). Neonate survival was higher near fertile valley bottoms and lower along forested ridges characterized by shallow, infertile soils and limited edge or early successional forests. While predation, largely influenced by black bears, was the leading cause of neonate mortality and contributed to low neonate survival, we observed little evidence of population decline, and suggest there is opportunity for a modest increase in harvest of female deer.

Virginia↗
USGS2020

Biotic interactions help explain variation in elevational range limits of birds among Bornean mountains

Aim Physiological tolerances and biotic interactions along habitat gradients are thought to influence species occurrence. Distributional differences caused by such forces are particularly noticeable on tropical mountains, where high species turnover along elevational gradients occurs over relatively short distances and elevational distributions of particular species can shift among mountains. Such shifts are interpreted as evidence of the importance of spatial variation in interspecific competition and habitat or climatic gradients. To assess the relative importance of competition and compression of habitat and climatic zones in setting range limits, we examined differences in elevational ranges of forest bird species among four Bornean mountains with distinct features. Location Bornean mountains Kinabalu, Mulu, Pueh and Topap Oso. Taxon Rain forest bird communities along elevational gradients. Methods We surveyed the elevational ranges of rain forest birds on four mountains in Borneo to test which environmental variables—habitat zone compression or presence of likely competitors—best predicted differences in elevational ranges of species among mountains. For this purpose, we used two complementary tests: a comparison of elevational range limits between pairs of mountains, and linear mixed models with naïve occupancy as the response variable. Results We found that lowland species occur higher in elevation on two small mountains compared to Mt. Mulu. This result is inconsistent with the expectation that distributions of habitats are elevationally compressed on small mountains, but is consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in competition (likely diffuse) on short mountains, which largely lack montane specialist species, allows lowland species to occur higher in elevation. The relative influence of competition changes with elevation, and the correlation between lower range limits of montane species and the distribution of their competitors was weaker than in lowland species. Main conclusions These findings provide support for the importance of biotic interactions in setting elevational range limits of tropical bird species, although abiotic gradients explain the majority of distribution patterns. Thus, models predicting range shifts under climate change scenarios must include not only climatic variables, as is currently most common, but also information on potentially resulting changes in species interactions, especially for lowland species.

Borneo↗
USGS2013

Conditions favouring Bromus tectorum dominance of endangered sagebrush steppe ecosystems

1. Ecosystem invasibility is determined by combinations of environmental variables, invader attributes, disturbance regimes, competitive abilities of resident species and evolutionary history between residents and disturbance regimes. Understanding the relative importance of each factor is critical to limiting future invasions and restoring ecosystems. 2. We investigated factors potentially controlling Bromus tectorum invasions into Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis communities across 75 sites in the Great Basin. We measured soil texture, cattle grazing intensity, gaps among perennial plants and plant cover including B. tectorum, biological soil crusts (BSCs) and bare soil. Using a priori knowledge, we developed a multivariate hypothesis of the susceptibility of Artemisia ecosystems to B. tectorum invasion and used the model to assess the relative importance of the factors driving the magnitude of such invasions. 3. Model results imply that bunchgrass community structure, abundance and composition, along with BSC cover, play important roles in controlling B. tectorum dominance. Evidence suggests abundant bunchgrasses limit invasions by limiting the size and connectivity of gaps between vegetation, and BSCs appear to limit invasions within gaps. Results also suggest that cattle grazing reduces invasion resistance by decreasing bunchgrass abundance, shifting bunchgrass composition, and thereby increasing connectivity of gaps between perennial plants while trampling further reduces resistance by reducing BSC. 4. Synthesis and applications. Grazing exacerbates Bromus tectorum dominance in one of North America's most endangered ecosystems by adversely impacting key mechanisms mediating resistance to invasion. If the goal is to conserve and restore resistance of these systems, managers should consider maintaining or restoring: (i) high bunchgrass cover and structure characterized by spatially dispersed bunchgrasses and small gaps between them; (ii) a diverse assemblage of bunchgrass species to maximize competitive interactions with B. tectorum in time and space; and (iii) biological soil crusts to limit B. tectorum establishment. Passive restoration by reducing cumulative cattle grazing may be one of the most effective means of achieving these three goals.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2003

Factors affecting breeding dispersal of European ducks on Engure Marsh, Latvia

1. We used up to 35 years of capture-recapture data from nearly 3300 individual female ducks nesting on Engure Marsh , Latvia , and multistate modelling to test predictions about the influence of environmental, habitat and management factors on breeding dispersal probability within the marsh . 2. Analyses based on observed dispersal distances of common pochards and tufted ducks provided no evidence that breeding success in year t influenced dispersal distance between t and t + 1. 3. Breeding dispersal distances (year t to t + 1) of pochards and tufted ducks were associated with a delay in relative nest initiation dates in year t + 1. The delay was greater for pochards (c. 4 days) than for tufted ducks (c. 2 days) when females dispersed > 0.8 km. 4. Northern shovelers and tufted ducks moved from a large island to small islands at low water levels and from small islands to the large island at high water levels before the construction of elevated small islands (1960-82). Following this habitat management (1983-94), breeding fidelity was extremely high and not influenced by water level in the marsh for either species. 5. Because pochard nesting habitats in black-headed gull colonies were saturated during the entire study period, nesting females moved into and out of colonies with similar probabilities. Local survival probabilities and incubation body masses were higher for both yearlings (SY) and adults (ASY) nesting within gull colonies, suggesting that these females were of better quality than females nesting outside of the colonies. 6. Tufted ducks showed higher probabilities of moving from islands to emergent marshes when water levels were higher both before and after habitat management. However, rates of movement for a given water level were higher during the period before management than after. 7. Both pochards and tufted ducks exhibited asymmetric movement with respect to proximity to water, with higher movement probabilities to near-water nesting locations than away from these locations. 8. Multistate capture-recapture models provided analyses that were useful in investigating sources of variation in breeding dispersal probabilities.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2026

Linking distribution and return-on-investment models to optimize woody management for prairie grouse in Nebraska

Grasslands in Nebraska, USA, face threats from agricultural conversion, urban development, and woody encroachment, all of which negatively affect prairie grouse ( Tympanuchus spp.) populations. To optimize conservation planning, Nebraska wildlife agencies developed probabilistic area-based surveys for greater prairie-chicken ( T. cupido ) and sharp-tailed grouse ( T. phasianellus ) to sample landscapes across a range of environmental conditions. This design improves historical surveys and enables the development of distribution models that quantitatively define habitat associations and support scenario-based conservation planning. Using survey data collected during 2020–2022, we modeled prairie grouse occurrence and abundance as functions of land cover, topography, and climate using Bayesian logistic and zero-inflated negative binomial models with regularized horseshoe priors. We then conducted a maximum potential return-on-investment analysis of woody cover treatments, assuming sustained treatment success, relative to projected impacts of woody encroachment on prairie grouse populations by 2050. Among modeled associations were a positive association with grasslands having low woody cover and a negative association with grasslands having high woody cover. Across the 3-year period, median estimated annual populations were 142,380 for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs across years = 68,821–277,615) and 64,154 for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs across years = 27,550–146,559). Under projected woody encroachment, mean predicted population declines were 10% for greater prairie-chicken (range of 95% CIs = 7–14%) and 6% for sharp-tailed grouse (range of 95% CIs = 5–7%). Areas with high prairie grouse density and low treatment costs in 2021, and high projected woody encroachment and population loss by 2050, offered the greatest return on investment for woody management. Return on investment was greatest in the northwestern Shortgrass Prairie ecoregion (northwestern Nebraska) for sharp-tailed grouse and the eastern Sandhills ecoregion (central Nebraska) for both species. These models underscore the value of evidence-based, quantitative approaches for prioritizing conservation actions on working lands. Scenario-based modeling could be extended to guide other treatments, such as optimizing restoration (e.g., Conservation Reserve Program) or incentivizing grassland persistence in areas with predicted climate resilience.

Nebraska↗
USGS2021

Late Holocene environmental change in Celestun Lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico

Epikarst estuary response to hydroclimate change remains poorly understood, despite the well-studied link between climate and karst groundwater aquifers. The influence of sea-level rise and coastal geomorphic change on these estuaries obscures climate signals, thus requiring careful development of paleoenvironmental histories to interpret the paleoclimate archives. We used foraminifera assemblages, carbon stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) and carbon:nitrogen (C:N) mass ratios of organic matter in sediment cores to infer environmental changes over the past 5300 years in Celestun Lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico. Specimens (> 125 µm) from modern core top sediments revealed three assemblages: (1) a brackish mangrove assemblage of agglutinated Miliammina and Ammotium taxa and hyaline Haynesina (2) an inner-shelf marine assemblage of Bolivina , Hanzawaia , and Rosalina, and (3) a brackish assemblage dominated by Ammonia and Elphidium . Assemblages changed along the lagoon channel in response to changes in salinity and vegetation, i.e. seagrass and mangrove. In addition to these three foraminifera assemblages, lagoon sediments deposited since 5300 cal yr BP are comprised of two more assemblages, defined by Archaias and Laevipeneroplis, which indicate marine Thalassia seagrasses, and Trichohyalus, which indicates restricted inland mangrove ponds. Our data suggest that Celestun Lagoon displayed four phases of development: (1) an inland mangrove pond (5300 BP) (2) a shallow unprotected coastline with marine seagrass and barrier island initiation (4900 BP) (3) a protected brackish lagoon (3000 BP), and (4) a protected lagoon surrounded by mangroves (1700 BP). Stratigraphic (temporal) changes in core assemblages resemble spatial differences in communities across the modern lagoon, from the southern marine sector to the northern brackish region. Similar temporal patterns have been reported from other Yucatan Peninsula lagoons and from cenotes (Nichupte, Aktun Ha), suggesting a regional coastal response to sea level rise and climate change, including geomorphic controls (longshore drift) on lagoon salinity, as observed today. Holocene barrier island development progressively protected the northwest Yucatan Peninsula coastline, reducing mixing between seawater and rain-fed submarine groundwater discharge. Superimposed on this geomorphic signal, assemblage changes that are observed reflect the most severe regional wet and dry climate episodes, which coincide with paleoclimate records from lowland lake archives (Chichancanab, Salpeten). Our results emphasize the need to consider coastal geomorphic evolution when using epikarst estuary and lagoon sediment archives for paleoclimate reconstruction and provide evidence of hydroclimate changes on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Yucatan, Celestun Lagoon↗