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Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of flood damage probability for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events ( n = 71,434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g., flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a flood damage probability for each 100-m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g., forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g., wetlands). Our results identified flood damage probability hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating flood damage probability estimates across the nation.

Environmental Research Letters

Three-Dimensional Geologic Model of Complex Fault Structures in the Upper Seco Creek Area, Medina and Uvalde Counties, South-Central Texas

This multimedia report shows and describes digital three-dimensional faulted geologic surfaces and volumes of the lithologic units of the Edwards aquifer in the upper Seco Creek area of Medina and Uvalde Counties in south-central Texas. This geologic framework model was produced using (1) geologic maps and interpretations of depositional environments and paleogeography; (2) lithologic descriptions, interpretations, and geophysical logs from 31 drill holes; (3) rock core and detailed lithologic descriptions from one drill hole; (4) helicopter electromagnetic geophysical data; and (5) known major and minor faults in the study area. These faults were used because of their individual and collective effects on the continuity of the aquifer-forming units in the Edwards Group. Data and information were compared and validated with each other and reflect the complex relationships of structures in the Seco Creek area of the Balcones fault zone. This geologic framework model can be used as a tool to visually explore and study geologic structures within the Seco Creek area of the Balcones fault zone and to show the connectivity of hydrologic units of high and low permeability between and across faults. The software can be used to display other data and information, such as drill-hole data, on this geologic framework model in three-dimensional space.

Scientific Investigations Report

Summary of hydrogeologic and ground-water-quality data and hydrogeologic framework at selected well sites, Adams County, Pennsylvania

Rapid population growth in Adams County has increased the demand for ground water and led Adams County planning officials to undertake an effort to evaluate the capabilities of existing community water systems to meet future, projected growth and to begin wellhead-protection programs for public-supply wells. As part of this effort, this report summarizes ground-water data on a countywide scale and provides hydrogeologic information needed to delineate wellheadprotection areas in three hydrogeologic units (Gettysburg Lowland, Blue Ridge, and Piedmont Lowland). Reported yields, specific capacities, well depths, and reported overburden thickness can vary by hydrogeologic unit, geologic formation, water use (domestic and nondomestic), and topographic setting. The reported yields of domestic wells drilled in the Gettysburg Lowland (median reported yield of 10 gallons per minute) are significantly greater than the reported yields from the Blue Ridge, Piedmont Lowland, and Piedmont Upland (median reported yields of 7.0, 8.0, and 7.0 gallons per minute, respectively). Reported yields of domestic wells completed in the diabase and the New Oxford Formation of the Gettysburg Lowland, and in the metarhyolite and metabasalt of the Blue Ridge, are significantly lower than reported yields of wells completed in the Gettysburg Formation. For nondomestic wells, reported yields from the Conestoga Formation of the Piedmont Lowland are significantly greater than in the diabase. Reported yields of nondomestic wells drilled in the Gettysburg, New Oxford, and Conestoga Formations, and the metarhyolite are significantly greater than those for domestic wells drilled in the respective geologic formations. Specific capacities of nondomestic wells in the Conestoga and Gettysburg Formations are significantly greater than their domestic counterparts. Specific capacities of nondomestic wells in the Conestoga Formation are significantly greater than the specific capacities of nondomestic wells in the metarhyolite, diabase, and Gettysburg and New Oxford Formations.Well depths do not vary considerably by hydrogeologic unit; instead, the greatest variability is by water use. Nondomestic wells drilled in the metarhyolite, Kinzers, Conestoga, Gettysburg, and New Oxford Formations are completed at significantly greater depths than their domestic counterparts. The reported thickness of overburden varies significantly by geologic formation and water use, but not by topographic setting. The median overburden thickness of the Blue Ridge (35 feet) is greater than in any other hydrologic unit. Except where adversely affected by human activities, ground water in Adams County is suitable for most purposes. Calcium and magnesium are the dominant cations, and bicarbonate is the dominant anion. In general, the pH and hardness of ground water is lower in areas that are underlain by crystalline rocks (Blue Ridge and Piedmont Upland) than in areas underlain by sedimentary rocks, especially where limestone or dolomite is dominant (Piedmont Lowland). Dissolved nitrate (as N) and dissolved nitrite (as N) concentrations in the water from 9 of 69 wells and 3 of 80 wells sampled exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant levels (MCL) of 10 and 1.0 mg/L (milligrams per liter), respectively. Sulfate concentrations greater than the proposed USEPA MCL of 500 mg/L were reported from the water in 3 of 110 wells sampled. Iron concentrations in the water from 13 of 67 wells sampled and manganese in the water from 9 of 64 wells sampled exceeded the USEPA secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) of 300 and 50 mg/L (micrograms per liter), respectively. Aluminum concentrations in the water from 16 of 22 wells sampled exceeded the lower USEPA SMCL threshold of 50 µg/L. Pesticides were detected in the water from seven wells but at concentrations that did not exceed USEPA MCL's. Most volatile organic compounds detected in the ground water were confined to USEPA Superfund sites or the immediate area around the sites. The hydrogeologic framework in the vicinity of four public-supply well fields (Gettysburg, Abbottstown, Fairfield, and Littlestown) consists of two zones—an upper zone and a lower zone. In general, the upper zone is thin (5 to 60 feet or more) and dominated by saturated regolith and deeply weathered bedrock. The upper zone is bounded at the top by the water table and below by bedrock in which secondary porosity and permeability are considerably lower. Ground water is generally unconfined, and recharge rates are rapid. Ground-water flow is influenced more strongly by the topography of the ground surface and bedrock surface than by geologic structure. The lower zone is relatively thick (400 to 1,000 feet) and consists of slightly weathered to highly competent bedrock. Ground-water flow paths in the lower zone are generally greater and recharge rates are longer than in the upper zone; confined conditions are common, especially at depth.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Ranking contributing areas of salt and selenium in the Lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, using multiple linear regression models

Mitigating the effects of salt and selenium on water quality in the Grand Valley and lower Gunnison River Basin in western Colorado is a major concern for land managers. Previous modeling indicated means to improve the models by including more detailed geospatial data and a more rigorous method for developing the models. After evaluating all possible combinations of geospatial variables, four multiple linear regression models resulted that could estimate irrigation-season salt yield, nonirrigation-season salt yield, irrigation-season selenium yield, and nonirrigation-season selenium yield. The adjusted r-squared and the residual standard error (in units of log-transformed yield) of the models were, respectively, 0.87 and 2.03 for the irrigation-season salt model, 0.90 and 1.25 for the nonirrigation-season salt model, 0.85 and 2.94 for the irrigation-season selenium model, and 0.93 and 1.75 for the nonirrigation-season selenium model. The four models were used to estimate yields and loads from contributing areas corresponding to 12-digit hydrologic unit codes in the lower Gunnison River Basin study area. Each of the 175 contributing areas was ranked according to its estimated mean seasonal yield of salt and selenium.

Colorado

Spatial, seasonal, and source variability in the stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of tap waters throughout the USA

To assess spatial, seasonal, and source variability in stable isotopic composition of human drinking waters throughout the entire USA, we have constructed a database of δ 18 O and δ 2 H of US tap waters. An additional purpose was to create a publicly available dataset useful for evaluating the forensic applicability of these isotopes for human tissue source geolocation. Samples were obtained at 349 sites, from diverse population centres, grouped by surface hydrologic units for regional comparisons. Samples were taken concurrently during two contrasting seasons, summer and winter. Source supply (surface, groundwater, mixed, and cistern) and system (public and private) types were noted. The isotopic composition of tap waters exhibits large spatial and regional variation within each season as well as significant at-site differences between seasons at many locations, consistent with patterns found in environmental (river and precipitation) waters deriving from hydrologic processes influenced by geographic factors. However, anthropogenic factors, such as the population of a tap’s surrounding community and local availability from diverse sources, also influence the isotopic composition of tap waters. Even within a locale as small as a single metropolitan area, tap waters with greatly differing isotopic compositions can be found, so that tap water within a region may not exhibit the spatial or temporal coherence predicted for environmental water. Such heterogeneities can be confounding factors when attempting forensic inference of source water location, and they underscore the necessity of measurements, not just predictions, with which to characterize the isotopic composition of regional tap waters. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Hydrological Processes

Potentiometric Surfaces in the Springfield Plateau and Ozark Aquifers of Northwestern Arkansas, Southeastern Kansas, Southwestern Missouri, and Northeastern Oklahoma, 2006

The Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers are important sources of ground water in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system. Water from these aquifers is used for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and municipal water sources. Changing water use over time in these aquifers presents a need for updated potentiometric-surface maps of the Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers. The Springfield Plateau aquifer consists of water-bearing Mississippian-age limestone and chert. The Ozark aquifer consists of Late Cambrian to Middle Devonian age water-bearing rocks consisting of dolostone, limestone, and sandstone. Both aquifers are complex with areally varying lithologies, discrete hydrologic units, varying permeabilities, and secondary permeabilities related to fractures and karst features. During the spring of 2006, ground-water levels were measured in 285 wells. These data, and water levels from selected lakes, rivers, and springs, were used to create potentiometric-surface maps for the Springfield Plateau and Ozark aquifers. Linear kriging was used initially to construct the water-level contours on the maps; the contours were subsequently modified using hydrologic judgment. The potentiometric-surface maps presented in this report represent ground-water conditions during the spring of 2006. During the spring of 2006, the region received less than average rainfall. Dry conditions prior to the spring of 2006 could have contributed to the observed water levels as well. The potentiometric-surface map of the Springfield Plateau aquifer shows a maximum measured water-level altitude within the study area of about 1,450 feet at a spring in Barry County, Missouri, and a minimum measured water-level altitude of 579 feet at a well in Ottawa County, Oklahoma. Cones of depression occur in Dade, Lawrence and Newton Counties in Missouri and Delaware and Ottawa Counties in Oklahoma. These cones of depression are associated with private wells. Ground water in the Springfield Plateau aquifer generally flows to the west in the study area, and to surface features (lakes, rivers, and springs) particularly in the south and east of the study area where the Springfield Plateau aquifer is closest to land surface. The potentiometric-surface map of the Ozark aquifer indicates a maximum measured water-level altitude of 1,303 feet in the study area at a well in Washington County, Arkansas, and a minimum measured water-level altitude of 390 feet in Ottawa County, Oklahoma. The water in the Ozark aquifer generally flows to the northwest in the northern part of the study area and to the west in the remaining study area. Cones of depression occur in Barry, Barton, Cedar, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton, and Vernon Counties in Missouri, Cherokee and Crawford Counties in Kansas, and Craig and Ottawa Counties in Oklahoma. These cones of depression are associated with municipal supply wells. The flow directions, based on both potentiometric-surface maps, generally agree with flow directions indicated by previous studies.

Scientific Investigations Report

Yucaipa valley integrated hydrological model

Introduction The hydrologic system in the Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW) was simulated using the coupled Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW; Markstrom and others, 2008). This study uses version 2.0 of GSFLOW, which is a combination of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS; Markstrom and others, 2015), and the Newton-Raphson formulation of the Modular Groundwater-Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT; hereafter referred to as MODFLOW; Harbaugh, 2005; Niswonger and others, 2011). GSFLOW partitions the hydrologic system into three regions (fig. B1) that are linked by the exchange of unsaturated and saturated groundwater and surface water. The properties and processes within each region influence the flow of both groundwater and surface water into, out of, and within each region. The PRMS component of GSFLOW simulates Region 1, and the MODFLOW component simulates Regions 2 and 3. In the YVW, GSFLOW was applied as the simulation code and is referred to herein as the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrologic Model (YIHM; Alzraiee and others, 2022). In the YIHM, Region 1 includes the plant canopy, snowpack, and the soil zone; Region 2 includes the stream network; and Region 3 includes the subsurface beneath Regions 1 and 2 and consists of both the saturated and unsaturated zones. Soil-moisture conditions and head relations control the flow of both groundwater and surface water between regions. The maximum lateral extents of Regions 1 and 3 were defined using the surface-water drainage divides described in the “Description of Study Area” section of chapter A of this report. The boundaries for Region 2 are the lowest elevation of the streambeds, the stream channel widths, and the horizontal extent of the stream channels in the YVW. Flow across the unsaturated part of Region 3 is assumed to be vertical and does not cross the lateral boundary. To simulate hydrologic processes occurring within the YVW using GSFLOW, a model domain was defined to match the surface watershed such that the domain includes each surficial hydrologic unit coinciding (at least partially) with the Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”) as defined in California Bulletin 118 (California Department of Water Resources, 2016). The resulting simulated domain (fig. B2) includes the Yucaipa subbasin and intersects partially with parts of the San Bernardino and San Timoteo groundwater subbasins (fig. B2). The area of the active model domain in YIHM is about 121 square miles (mi2). The developed YIHM can be used to improve understanding of the hydrologic processes in YVW and to simulate future management scenarios with different climatic and anthropogenic changes.

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrology of the Jasper (Miocene) Aquifer in the Southeast Texas coastal plain

The Jasper (Miocene) aquifer is one of several important hydrologic units in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Because the Jasper aquifer underlies shallower aquifers in many areas, regional water withdrawals from the Jasper are not significant; however, it is capable of yielding 3,000 gallons per minute (200 liters per second) or more of water to wells in certain areas. The Jasper is underlain by the Catahoula confining system (restricted) and overlain by the Burkeville confining system. The Evangeline and Chicot aquifers, in turn, overlie the Burkeville and also are prolific water-yielding aquifers. The ground-water hydrology of the Jasper aquifer in an area of about 20,000 square miles (52,000 square kilometers) was simulated by a two-dimensional digital model using a steady-state approach. The model represents hydrologic conditions prior to development by wells, when natural recharge equaled natural discharge. The model's grid pattern of 15 x 24 nodes varies from a dimension of 5 by 10 miles (8 by 16 kilometers) in the outcrop to 10 by 10 miles (16 by 16 kilometers) in the artesian section downdip from the outcrop.

Texas

Saline aquifer mapping project in the southeastern United States

In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study of saline aquifers in the southeastern United States to evaluate the potential use of brackish or saline water from the deeper portions of the Floridan aquifer system and the underlying Coastal Plain aquifer system (Fig. 1). The objective of this study is to improve the overall understanding of the available saline water resources for potential future development. Specific tasks are to (1) develop a digital georeferenced database of borehole geophysical data to enable analysis and characterization of saline aquifers (see locations in Fig. 1), (2) identify and map the regional extent of saline aquifer systems and describe the thickness and character of hydrologic units that compose these systems, and (3) delineate salinity variations at key well sites and along section lines to provide a regional depiction of the freshwater-saltwater interfaces. Electrical resistivity and induction logs, coupled with a variety of different porosity logs (sonic, density, and neutron), are the primary types of borehole geophysical logs being used to estimate the water quality in brackish and saline formations. The results from the geophysical log calculations are being compared to available water-quality data obtained from water wells and from drill-stem water samples collected in test wells. Overall, the saline aquifer mapping project is helping to improve the understanding of saline water resources in the area. These aquifers may be sources of large quantities of water that could be treated by using reverse osmosis or similar technologies, or they could be used for aquifer storage and recovery systems.

Florida, Georgia

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama

Vulnerability assessment of groundwater influenced ecosystems in the Northeastern United States

Groundwater-influenced ecosystems (GIEs) are increasingly vulnerable due to groundwater extraction, land-use practices, and climate change. These ecosystems receive groundwater inflow as a portion of their baseflow or water budget, which can maintain water levels, water temperature, and chemistry necessary to sustain the biodiversity that they support. In some systems (e.g., springs, seeps, fens), this connection with groundwater is central to the system’s integrity and persistence. Groundwater management decisions for human use often do not consider the ecological effects of those actions on GIEs. This disparity can be attributed, in part, to a lack of information regarding the physical relationships these systems have with the surrounding landscape and climate, which may influence the environmental conditions and associated biodiversity. We estimate the vulnerability of areas predicted to be highly suitable for the presence of GIEs based on watershed (U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Unit Code 12 watersheds: 24–100 km 2 ) and pixel (30 m × 30 m pixels) resolution in the Atlantic Highlands and Mixed Wood Plains EPA Level II Ecoregions in the northeastern United States. We represent vulnerability with variables describing adaptive capacity (topographic wetness index, hydric soil, physiographic diversity), exposure (climatic niche), and sensitivity (aquatic barriers, proportion urbanized or agriculture). Vulnerability scores indicate that ~26% of GIEs were within 30 m of areas with moderate vulnerability. Within these GIEs, climate exposure is an important contributor to vulnerability of 40% of the areas, followed by land use (19%, agriculture or urbanized). There are few areas predicted to be suitable for GIEs that are also predicted to be highly vulnerable, and of those, climate exposure is the most important contributor to their vulnerability. Persistence of GIEs in the northeastern United States may be challenged as changes in the amount and timing of precipitation and increasing air temperatures attributed to climate change affect the groundwater that sustains these systems.

Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine

Endemic and invasive species: A history of distributional trends in the fish fauna of the lower New River drainage

Invasive species are often central to conservation efforts, particularly when concerns involve potential impacts on rare, endemic native species. The lower New River drainage of the eastern United States is a watershed that warrants conservation assessment, as the system is naturally depauperate of native fish species and it is nearly saturated with non-native fish species: there are 31 natives, including at least nine endemic taxa, and 63 non-natives. For endemic taxa, we examined temporal distribution shifts (range expansions or contractions) based on percent change in the occupied watershed area. We contrasted these findings with time series analyses on distribution trends of non-native minnows (Leuciscidae) and darters (Percidae) based on growth curve models of the cumulative sum of the total area of occupied 12-digit hydrologic unit codes. We documented range reductions for six of nine endemic taxa. We determined that 11 of 18 non-native minnows and 6 of 8 non-native darters were invasive based on range expansions and associated invasion curve models. The endemic taxa are of conservation concern given the limited distribution ranges and documented population declines. Although among-species comparisons of range shifts do not support causal inference, documentation of changes in distribution ranges of endemic and invasive species is critical to inform conservation efforts.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia

Evaluating habitat use and relative abundance of Iowa's river otter with harvest data

The North American river otter ( Lontra canadensis ) was extirpated from much of the United States in the early 20th century due to habitat loss, pollution of waterways, and overharvesting. The Iowa Department of Natural Resources began a river otter reintroduction effort in 1985, which placed otters in 14 sites across the state. Otters have since been known to occur in every county in Iowa and appear to have successfully repopulated their former range throughout the state. Our objective was to relate land cover characteristics and otter abundance using harvest data. We used data collected by agency staff to map the locations of otter harvest in Iowa from 2006 to 2016. We mapped otter harvest locations at the subwatershed level (also called 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code or HUC-12). We related otter harvest to land cover variables and predicted otter abundance by land cover type. We found that roads, forests, larger waterways, and Ictaluridae (catfish) presence were negatively correlated with otter harvest. Variables positively correlated with otter harvest were areas with greater land cover diversity, wetland patch density, average stream density, and waterway and wetland areas. The land cover model predicted otters in equal or greater numbers than the harvest data in 62.8% of HUC-12s. The areas of greatest otter abundance estimates were located near recreation areas and urban areas, indicating the underutilization of these heavy-trafficked areas by trappers. Areas of fewer predicted otters were not concentrated in a single area of the state but occurred along the Interstate 80 corridor.

Iowa

Final project peport for “Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to present – Phase 2: Focus on tamarisk vegetation”

Riparian ecosystems play a critical role in supporting wildlife habitats, maintaining water quality, and sustaining ecological resilience in arid landscapes. In the Upper Gila River level-4 Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-4; Identification Number – 1504) watershed of Arizona and New Mexico, and across areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe of the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter, Tribe/Tribal – entity; or Reservation - place), riparian ecosystems have been substantially altered by the widespread expansion of tamarisk ( Tamarix spp.), an invasive and non-native riparian species. Tamarisk has high water use and increased flammability, making it a growing concern as droughts intensify across the southwestern United States (U.S.). Recent research indicates that tamarisk is increasingly stressed under prolonged drought conditions, which can elevate wildfire risk and further degrade riparian habitat. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Geographic Science Center, in collaboration with the Tribe, developed remote sensing–based tools to map riparian vegetation composition and monitor vegetation condition over time. These tools enable accurate identification of tamarisk extent, detection of vegetation stress, and comparison with native species such as cottonwood and willow. This information directly supports restoration and management actions, including targeted tamarisk removal, protection of endangered species habitat, and prioritization of areas for native vegetation recovery. The tools also provide insight into how riparian vegetation responds to changing climate and hydrologic conditions, strengthening long-term planning for riparian forest management. Findings from this work demonstrate that riparian vegetation responses vary across river systems, indicating differences in plant composition and hydro-climatic conditions. Tamarisk on both the Gila and San Carlos Rivers generally exhibit greater declines in greenness in response to higher temperature as well as lower precipitation and river flow, while cottonwood ( Populus fremontii ) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly sensitive to changes in discharge along the San Carlos River and respond more directly to both high and low flows, with more moderate responses to precipitation and temperature. By providing actionable, science-based information, this research supports climate adaptation planning, wildfire risk reduction, and improved riparian ecosystem health, with benefits that extend beyond the Reservation to regional water and wildlife conservation efforts.

Arizona, New Mexico

Estimates of public-supply, domestic, and irrigation water withdrawal, use, and trends in the Upper Rio Grande Basin, 1985 to 2015

The Rio Grande flows approximately 670 miles from its headwaters in the San Juan Mountains of south-central Colorado to Fort Quitman, Texas, draining the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) study area of 32,000 square miles that includes parts of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas. Parts of the basin extend into the United Mexican States (hereafter “Mexico”), where the Rio Grande forms the international boundary between Texas and the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. The URGB was chosen as a focus area study (FAS) for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Census (NWC) as part of the WaterSMART initiative. The objective of the USGS NWC under WaterSMART is to focus on the technical aspects of providing information and tools to stakeholders so that they can make informed decisions on water availability. This report contains water-use withdrawal estimates of groundwater and surface water for public-supply, self-supplied domestic, and irrigation water use for years 1985–2015 at 5-year intervals for the 22 drainage basins at the subbasin 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC-8) level. Data for additional categories of self-supplied industrial, mining, livestock, aquaculture, thermoelectric, and hydroelectric water use are provided in the accompanying data release to illustrate total withdrawals for the URGB. The additional category data are provided in this report only for the year 2015. Deliveries of water from public-supply systems to domestic users are included and are the only water-delivery data presented in this report. Consumptive use for irrigation is reported for all HUC-8 subbasins for 2015 and for select HUC-8s in the other years beginning in 1985 (the irrigation category includes irrigation for both crop and golf). Water transported outside of the URGB (interbasin transfers) is not included as part of the withdrawals and are not accounted for in any category of use within the URGB. Estimated total withdrawals for all the water-use categories (including hydroelectric) in 2015 as reported in the USGS compilations in the URGB were 3,152.10 million gallons per day (Mgal/d). Surface water was the dominant source of water used in the URGB, providing about 71 percent of total withdrawals. Nearly all withdrawals were from freshwater sources; there was a small amount of saline groundwater that was used for public supply and self-supplied industrial, which were all reported in Texas. The proportions of total 2015 withdrawals from States in the URGB are 46 percent each in Colorado and New Mexico and 8 percent in Texas. A comparison of 2015 water withdrawals for the URGB—for the categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, self-supplied industrial, thermoelectric, irrigation, livestock, mining, aquaculture, and hydroelectric—showed that irrigation is the dominant water use, at 74 percent of total withdrawals. Other water-use categories in the URGB that use about 1 percent or greater of the total water use by volume are public supply (9 percent) and self-supplied domestic and aquaculture (each about 1 percent). This report focuses on the higher volume, consumptively used categories of public supply, self-supplied domestic, and irrigation. A discussion on basin population provides context for the categories of public-supply and self-supplied domestic water use. The population in the part of the basin in the United States grew from 1.36 to 2.26 million people between 1985 and 2015. With the city of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, included, the total population of the URGB grew from an estimated 2.01 to 3.66 million people between 1985 and 2015. The largest concentrations of population are in New Mexico, Texas, and Chihuahua, with 98 percent of the total number of people in the basin in 1985 and 99 percent of the total in 2015 residing in these states. Albuquerque, El Paso, and Ciudad Juarez are the largest cities in the basin. Total withdrawals for public supply in the URGB averaged 277 Mgal/d from 1985 to 2015. About 60 percent of the URGB total public-supply withdrawals occurred in New Mexico, which averaged 170 Mgal/d. Groundwater provided 92 and 70 percent of the total withdrawals for public supply in 1985 and 2015, respectively. Deliveries to domestic users from public suppliers are reported for all drainage basins and years, and account for part of the total public-supply withdrawals. In the URGB, domestic deliveries from public suppliers increased from 1985 to 1995; since 2005, domestic deliveries from public supply have declined. The total populations served by public suppliers in the URGB increased by 90 percent from 1985 to 2015. In the URGB, more people were served by public-supply systems than were self-supplied, and the percentage of people on public-supply systems ranged from 81 to 92 percent from 1985 to 2015. Total domestic withdrawals in the URGB (deliveries plus self-supply withdrawals) ranged from 177.49 to 234.83 Mgal/d and peaked in 2005. Domestic use decreased from 2005 to 2010 by 17 percent and remained less than 200 Mgal/d in 2015. The per-capita daily use for the entire URGB fluctuated between the reporting years, but overall, domestic per-capita use across the basin has declined 46 percent from 145 gallons per capita daily (gpcd) in 1985 to 79 gpcd in 2015. Total irrigation withdrawals in the URGB had a mean value of 2,767.66 Mgal/d from 1985 to 2015 and withdrawals peaked in 1995 at 3,416.84 Mgal/d. Over the 30-year period, irrigation source water in the URGB has ranged from 69 to 84 percent surface water, and the most surface water diverted in the basin for irrigation was in 1995. Groundwater withdrawals for irrigation have fluctuated but overall decreased by 13 percent between 2005 and 2015. Slightly more than one-half of total irrigation withdrawals within the URGB occurred in Colorado, with a mean of 57 percent from 1985 to 2015. From the peak of water withdrawals in 1995 to the conclusion of this study in 2015, total irrigation withdrawals across the study area decreased by 32 percent. The total number of irrigated lands in the URGB from 1985 to 2015 had a mean of about 800 thousand acres, and more irrigated lands were consistently located in the headwaters of the URGB in the San Luis Valley, Colorado than the remainder of the study basin. In the 30-year period, Colorado had a mean of 68 percent of total irrigated lands whereas irrigated acres in New Mexico had a mean of 26 percent and the remaining 7 percent were in Texas. Since 2000, the number of irrigated acres in the URGB has fluctuated, but overall has decreased by 12 percent. More land was irrigated with surface systems (surface irrigation includes flood, furrow, and gated pipe systems, hereafter collectively termed “surface”) in the URGB than with other irrigation system types. Across the 30-year period, from 62 to 88 percent of total irrigated lands had surface-system irrigation, and surface systems covered a mean of 69 percent of the URGB’s acres. Microirrigation systems, predominantly in New Mexico and Texas, compose 0.2 percent or less of the irrigated acres in the basin and were first reported in 1995. From 1985 to 2015, the surface systems decreased in the basin by about 38 percent, and the number of acres of sprinkler and microirrigation systems increased. Acres irrigated by sprinkler systems (predominately center pivot systems) have increased 179 percent from about 99 thousand acres in 1985 to 275 thousand acres in 2015. In this dataset, the number of sprinkler acres surpassed the number of surface irrigated acres in 2000. Within the San Luis Valley in Colorado, the acreage of surface irrigation has decreased, and sprinkler irrigation has increased over the 30-year period. In the New Mexico part of the URGB, surface irrigation is reported as the dominant system type, where irrigation by surface systems accounts for 97–98 percent of how water is provided to crops. As in New Mexico, crops in Texas are irrigated primarily by surface systems. The mean of the mean simulated actual evapotranspiration (ETa) for crops in 2015 across the basin was highest for durum wheat at an estimated 36.00 inches per year (in/yr), and lowest for vegetables at an estimated 19.48 in/yr. Alfalfa and irrigated grass pastures mean ETa had a mean of 31.4 and 27.58 in/yr, respectively, for the basin. Pecans and peppers, both signature crops in the Rio Grande Basin, each had a mean ETa of 30.67 and 30.38 in/yr of mean. In general, mean ETa values for crops were lower in the HUCs of the Colorado San Luis Valley (13010001, 13010002, 13010003 and 13010004) which are more northerly and at higher elevations. The mean ETa for crops increased in the HUCs that are more southerly and at lower elevations in the basin.

New Mexico

Hydrologic assessment, Eastern Coal Province Area 23, Alabama

The Eastern Coal Province is divided into 24 separate hydrologic reporting areas. The division is based on hydrologic factors, location, size, and mining activity. Hydrologic units (drainage basins) or parts of units are combined to form each area. Area 23 is located at the southern end of the Eastern Coal Province, in the Mobile River basin, includes the Warrior, Cahaba, and edges of the Plateau coal fields in Alabama, and covers an area of 4,716 square miles. It is underlain by the Coker and Pottsville Formations and the pre-Pennsylvanian rocks. The Pottsville Formation contains coal beds and is overlain by the Coker Formation in the western and southern parts of the area. The pre-Pennsylvanian rocks crop out in two northeast-southwest trending belts or ridges along and near the eastern boundary where folding and faulting is common. The outcrop of rocks along the western ridge forms the divide between the Warrior and the Cahaba coal fields. Hydrologic problems relating to surface mining are (1) erosion and sedimentation, (2) decline in ground-water levels, and (3) degradation of water quality. Average annual sediment yields can increase by four magnitudes in surface mined areas from 20 tons per square mile per year from areas not affected by mining to 300,000 tons per square mile per year from mined areas. Sediment yields increase drastically when vegetation is removed from the highly erosive soils and from unregulated surface mining operations. Decline in ground-water levels can occur in and near surface-mining areas when excavation extends below the static water level in the aquifer. (USGS)

Open-File Report

Population genetics of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the southern Appalachian Mountains

Broad-scale patterns of genetic diversity for Brook Trout remain poorly understood across their endemic range in the eastern United States. We characterized variation at 12 microsatellite loci in 22,020 Brook Trout among 836 populations from Georgia, USA to Quebec, Canada to the western Great Lakes region. Within-population diversity was typically lower in the southern Appalachians relative to the mid-Atlantic and northeastern regions. Effective population sizes in the southern Appalachians were often very small, with many estimates less than 30 individuals. The population genetics of Brook Trout in the southern Appalachians are far more complex than a conventionally held simple “northern” versus “southern” dichotomy would suggest. Contemporary population genetic variation was consistent with geographic expansion of Brook Trout from Mississippian, mid-Atlantic, and Acadian glacial refuges, as well as differentiation among drainages within these broader clades. Genetic variation was pronounced among drainages (57.4% of overall variation occurred among Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)10 or larger units) but was considerable even at fine spatial scales (13% of variation occurred among collections within HUC12 drainage units). Remarkably, 87.2% of individuals were correctly assigned to their collection of origin. While comparisons with fish from existing major hatcheries showed impacts of stocking in some populations, genetic introgression did not overwhelm the signal of broad-scale patterns of population genetic structure. Although our results reveal deep genetic structure in Brook Trout over broad spatial extents, fine-scale population structuring is prevalent across the southern Appalachians. Our findings highlight the distinctiveness and vulnerability of many Brook Trout populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains and have important implications for wild Brook Trout management. To facilitate application of our findings by conservation practitioners, we provide an interactive online visualization tool to allow our results to be explored at management relevant scales.

North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia

Assessing policy effectiveness trends in nonindigenous aquatic species introduction in the Ohio River basin

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) create costly, detrimental effects when established. Recognition of this in the United States reached a threshold in 1990 with the federal passage of the Nonindigenous Aquatic Nuisance Prevention and Control Act. This act created six regional panels, the national Aquatic Nuisance Species Task Force, and incentivized state-level AIS planning. The management of the Ohio River basin fell under the Mississippi River Basin Panel and the state-led Mississippi Interstate Cooperative Resource Association, which developed a joint action plan in 2010 to prevent, contain, and manage AIS. All Ohio River basin states besides West Virginia created aquatic nuisance species plans between 1999 and 2021. This study aims to utilize the best available data, the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database, to examine how legislative and planning milestones have influenced the rate of new AIS arrivals and the spread of existing and new AIS. Arrival and spread of AIS were assessed at the HUC-8 scale (8-digit hydrological unit code) along the Ohio, Wabash, Cumberland, Alleghany, Monongahela, and Tennessee rivers. A near-linear increase in new AIS across all rivers was determined. Most AIS species (35–55%) did not spread beyond the HUC they were first detected in, while less than 10% spread to all HUCs in a river. The findings indicate no clear correlation between legislative and planning milestones and changes in AIS spread. More work could help to fill data gaps in detecting and monitoring AIS through coordinated local and regional programs, as expanding the quality and quantity of data collection efforts can improve understanding of AIS dynamics, assessments of management effectiveness, and inform future policy. Future work could expand the analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of policy and planning programs in reducing AIS, considering the variability in on-the-ground approaches and spread prevention efforts across states.

Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mis