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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

North America↗
USGS2025

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline↗
USGS2011

Measuring currents in submarine canyons: technological and scientific progress in the past 30 years

The development and application of acoustic and optical technologies and of accurate positioning systems in the past 30 years have opened new frontiers in the submarine canyon research communities. This paper reviews several key advancements in both technology and science in the field of currents in submarine canyons since the1979 publication of Currents in Submarine Canyons and Other Sea Valleys by Francis Shepard and colleagues. Precise placements of high-resolution, high-frequency instruments have not only allowed researchers to collect new data that are essential for advancing and generalizing theories governing the canyon currents, but have also revealed new natural phenomena that challenge the understandings of the theorists and experimenters in their predictions of submarine canyon flow fields. Baroclinic motions at tidal frequencies, found to be intensified both up canyon and toward the canyon floor, dominate the flow field and control the sediment transport processes in submarine canyons. Turbidity currents are found to frequently occur in active submarine canyons such as Monterey Canyon. These turbidity currents have maximum speeds of nearly 200 cm/s, much smaller than the speeds of turbidity currents in geological time, but still very destructive. In addition to traditional Eulerian measurements, Lagrangian flow data are essential in quantifying water and sediment transport in submarine canyons. A concerted experiment with multiple monitoring stations along the canyon axis and on nearby shelves is required to characterize the storm-trigger mechanism for turbidity currents.

Geosphere↗
USGS2022

Barkley Canyon gas hydrates: A synthesis based on two decades of seafloor observation and remote sensing

Barkley Canyon is one of the few known sites worldwide with the occurrence of thermogenic gas seepage and formation of structure-II and structure-H gas hydrate mounds on the seafloor. This site is the location of continuous seafloor monitoring as part of the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) cabled observatory off the west coast off Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We combine repeat remotely operated vehicle (ROV) seafloor video observations, mapping with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), ship-, ROV-, and AUV-based identification of gas flares, as well as seismic and Chirp data to investigate the distribution of fluid migration pathways. Geologically, the site with the prominent gas hydrate mounds and associated fluid seepage is covering an area of ∼0.15 km 2 and is situated on a remnant of a rotated fault block that had slipped off the steep flanks of the north-east facing canyon wall. The gas hydrate mounds, nearly constant in dimension over the entire observation period, are associated with gas and oil seepage and surrounded by debris of chemosynthetic communities and authigenic carbonate. The formation of gas hydrate at and near the seafloor requires additional accommodation space created by forming blisters at the seafloor that displace the regular sediments. An additional zone located centrally on the rotated fault block with more diffuse seepage (∼0.02 km 2 in extent) has been identified with no visible mounds, but with bacterial mats, small carbonate concretions, and clam beds. Gas venting is seen acoustically in the water column up to a depth of ∼300 m. However, acoustic water-column imaging during coring and ROV dives showed rising gas bubbles to much shallower depth, even <50 m, likely a result of degassing of rising oil droplets, which themselves cannot be seen acoustically. Combining all observations, the location of the gas hydrate mounds is controlled by a combination of fault-focused fluid migration from a deeper reservoir and fluid seepage along more permeable strata within the rotated slope block. Fluids must be provided continuously to allow the sustained presence of the gas hydrate mounds at the seafloor.

Barkley Canyon↗
USGS2024

Vegetation responses to large dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA

Large dam removal can trigger changes to physical and biological processes that influence vegetation dynamics in former reservoirs, along river corridors downstream of former dams, and at a river’s terminus in deltas and estuaries. We present the first comprehensive review of vegetation response to major fluvial disturbance caused by the world’s largest dam removal. After being in place for nearly a century, two large dams were removed along the Elwha River, Washington, USA, between 2011 and 2014. The exposure, erosion, transport, and deposition of large volumes of sediment and large wood that were impounded behind the dams created new fluvial surfaces where plant colonization and growth have occurred. In the former reservoirs, dam removal exposed ~290 ha of unvegetated sediment distributed on three main landforms: valley walls, high terraces, and dynamic floodplains. In addition to natural revegetation in the former reservoirs, weed control and seeding and planting of desirable plants influenced vegetation trajectories. In early years following dam removal, ~20.5 Mt of trapped sediment were eroded from the former reservoirs and transported downstream. This sediment pulse, in combination with transport of large wood, led to channel widening, an increase in gravel bars, and floodplain deposition. The primary vegetation responses along the river corridor were a reduction in vegetated area associated with channel widening, plant establishment on new gravel bars, increased hydrochory, and altered plant community composition on gravel bars and floodplains. Plant species diversity increased in some river segments. In the delta, sediment deposition led to the creation of ~26.8 ha of new land surfaces and altered the distribution and dynamics of intertidal water bodies. Vegetation colonized ~16.4 ha of new surfaces: mixed pioneer vegetation colonized supratidal beach, river bars, and river mouth bars, and emergent marsh vegetation colonized intertidal aquatic habitats. In addition to the sediment-dominated processes that have created opportunities for plant colonization and growth, biological processes such as restored hydrochory and anadromous fish passage with associated delivery of marine-derived nutrients may influence vegetation dynamics over time. Rapid changes to landforms and vegetation growth were related to the large sediment pulse in the early years following dam removal, and the rate of change is expected to attenuate as the system adjusts to natural flow and sediment regimes.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Upriver migrating sea lamprey exhibit similar responses to hydrodynamic features as other up and downriver-moving species

Identifying commonalities in how fish navigate rivers near infrastructure will enhance water operations and design by improving our ability to predict engineering outcomes (e.g., barrier construction/removal, fish passage installation) in novel settings before the cost of real-world implementation. Evidence from intermediate-scale computer models (time scales of minutes to days and spatial scales <2 km) suggests that fish movement behavior in rivers is frequently governed by responses to one or more of the following hydrodynamic features: (1) flow direction (i.e., rheotaxis), (2) flow velocity magnitude, (3) turbulence, and (4) depth, plus (5) the integration of information over recent time periods (i.e., memory/experience). However, the lack of consistent modeling approaches, infrequent assessment of each response in isolation and combination, and a focus on a limited number of species means the generality of these responses is uncertain. We use a computer model, specifically a pattern-oriented modeling approach incorporating individual based models (IBMs), to apply responses to the four hydrodynamic features plus memory/experience in different combinations to study their value for reproducing the movement of an infrequently modeled species and lifestage, upriver migrating adult sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus . The study site was the region downstream of the Sault Ste. Marie lock and dam complex located between Canada and the U.S.A on the St. Marys River joining Lake Superior and Lake Huron. Our analysis indicates that rheotaxis and a response to velocity magnitude as well as recent past experience improve sea lamprey spatio-temporal movement prediction compared to other, simpler forms of modeled behavior. Sea lamprey movement is also biased toward lower levels of turbulence (e.g., turbulent kinetic energy) or its precursor (i.e., the spatial gradient in water speed). A response to water depth was not found to be important, but the modeled domain was two-dimensional which limited our assessment. As similar responses to hydrodynamic features are found in very different fish, commonalities appear to underlie river navigation across a range of species and life stages that share the goal-oriented behavior of upriver and downriver movement. The systematic approach of our analysis highlights the accuracy trade-offs of each response, individually and in combination, that often accompany alternative behavioral formulations in a computer model of fish movement. The model structure provides a framework to which future findings from the analyses of additional species in different contexts can be added.

Sault Ste. Marie lock and dam complex in the St. M↗
USGS2022

Spatial models of jaguar energy expenditure in response to border wall construction and remediation

The construction of a wall at the United States-Mexico border is known to impede and deter movement of terrestrial wildlife between the two countries. One such species is the jaguar, in its northernmost range in the borderlands of Arizona and Sonora. We developed an anisotropic cost distance model for jaguar in a binational crossing area of the Madrean Sky Islands at the United States-Mexico border in Southern Arizona as a case study by using previously collected GPS tracking data for jaguars, bioenergetic calculations for pumas, and a digital elevation model. This model describes projected energy expenditure for jaguar to reach key water sources north of the international border. These desert springs and the broader study region provide vital habitat for jaguar conservation and reintroduction efforts in the United States. An emerging impediment to jaguar conservation and reintroduction is border infrastructure including border wall. By comparing walled and un-walled border sections, and three remediation scenarios, we demonstrate that existing border infrastructure significantly increases energy expenditure by jaguars and that some partial remediation scenarios are more beneficial than others. Our results demonstrate opportunities for remediation. Improved understanding of how border infrastructure impacts physiological requirements and resulting impacts to jaguar and other terrestrial wildlife in the United States-Mexico borderlands may inform conservation management.

Arizona↗
USGS2020

Acidification in the U.S. Southeast: Causes, potential consequences and the role of the Southeast Ocean and Coastal Acidification Network

Coastal acidification in southeastern U.S. estuaries and coastal waters is influenced by biological activity, run-off from the land, and increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Acidification can negatively impact coastal resources such as shellfish, finfish, and coral reefs, and the communities that rely on them. Organismal responses for species located in the U.S. Southeast document large negative impacts of acidification, especially in larval stages. For example, the toxicity of pesticides increases under acidified conditions and the combination of acidification and low oxygen has profoundly negative influences on genes regulating oxygen consumption. In corals, the rate of calcification decreases with acidification and processes such as wound recovery, reproduction, and recruitment are negatively impacted. Minimizing the changes in global ocean chemistry will ultimately depend on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but adaptation to these changes and mitigation of the local stressors that exacerbate global acidification can be addressed locally. The evolution of our knowledge of acidification, from basic understanding of the problem to the emergence of applied research and monitoring, has been facilitated by the development of regional Coastal Acidification Networks (CANs) across the United States. This synthesis is a product of the Southeast Coastal and Ocean Acidification Network (SOCAN). SOCAN was established to better understand acidification in the coastal waters of the U.S. Southeast and to foster communication among scientists, resource managers, businesses, and governments in the region. Here we review acidification issues in the U.S. Southeast, including the regional mechanisms of acidification and their potential impacts on biological resources and coastal communities. We recommend research and monitoring priorities and discuss the role SOCAN has in advancing acidification research and mitigation of and adaptation to these changes.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2022

Assessing wave attenuation with rising sea levels for sustainable oyster reef-based living shorelines

In densely populated coastal areas with sea-level rise (SLR), protecting the shorelines against erosion due to the wave impact is crucial. Along with many engineered structures like seawalls and breakwaters, there are also green structures like constructed oyster reefs (CORs) that can not only attenuate the incident waves but also grow and maintain pace with SLR. However, there is a lack of data and understanding of the long-term wave attenuation capacity of the living shoreline structures under SLR. In this study, we used the phase-resolving Boussinesq model, FUNWAVE-TVD, to examine the hydrodynamics including wave height and wave-induced currents around the CORs in the Gandys Beach living shoreline project area in the upper Delaware Bay, United States. Waves were measured at six locations (offshore to onshore, with and without CORs) in the Gandys Beach living shoreline project area for two winter months, during which four nor’easters occurred. We selected three cases that represent prevailing wind, wave, and tide conditions to examine the fine spatial and temporal changes in wave height and current velocity by the construction of the reefs. Wave heights and wave energy spectra generated from FUNWAVE-TVD were then validated with field observations. It is found that FUNWAVE-TVD is capable of simulating waves and associated hydrodynamic processes that interact with CORs. The model results show that wave attenuation rates vary with the incident wave properties and water depth, and wave-induced circulation patterns are affected by the CORs. The wave attenuation capacity of CORs over the next 100 years was simulated with the incorporation of the oyster reef optimal growth zone. Our study found that sustainable wave attenuation capacity can only be achieved when suitable habitat for COR is provided, thus it can vertically grow with SLR. Suitable habitat includes optimal intertidal inundation duration, current velocity for larval transport and settlement, on-reef oyster survival and growth, and other environmental conditions including salinity, temperature, and nutrient availability. Furthermore, the model results suggest that it would take CORs approximately 9 years after construction to reach and maintain the maximum wave attenuation capacity in sustainable living shorelines.

Delaware, New Jersey↗
USGS2023

Editorial: Remote sensing of volcanic gas emissions from the ground, air, and space

When magma rises in volcanic systems, volatile species exsolve from the melt and are outgassed to the atmosphere. The melt composition and temperature, depth at which degassing occurs, extent of gas-water-rock interactions, and volume of ascending magma are all factors that determine the composition and rate of gas emissions at the surface. Interpreted in a petrological framework, gas measurements thus provide information on these fundamental parameters of volcanic systems. Volcanic gases have traditionally been sampled in the field and later analyzed with standard laboratory methods, but remote sensing measurements are playing an increasingly central role in characterizing emissions and the volcanoes from which they originate. The 17 contributions in this Research Topic summarize the state-of-the-art in volcanic gas remote sensing and identify key areas in which the field could further improve our understanding of global volcanism and its impact on Earth’s environment in the next decade.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2018

Detecting southern California’s white sharks with environmental DNA

To improve ability to detect white sharks without the need for tags, or visual census, we developed a species-specific environmental DNA (eDNA) assay that targets a 163 bp fragment of the white shark ( Carcharodon carcharias ) mitochondrial cytochrome B gene on a digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) platform. We used this marker to detect white shark DNA in 250 ml water samples taken from across two sites in Santa Barbara, California (United States) frequented by juvenile white sharks. We did not detect white shark DNA in samples from two neighboring sites where sharks are presumably absent, suggesting that eDNA can indicate nearby white sharks. This marker development, testing, and opportunistic application in a region with known distributions of white sharks indicates that eDNA could be developed further to monitor white sharks, thereby informing conservation planning and public safety. With the potential increase in white shark populations due to decades of protection, there is a need for fishery independent methods for assessing white shark distributions, and eDNA may provide an ideal, non-intrusive tool for coastal assessments.

California↗
USGS2019

Growing pains of crowdsourced stream stage monitoring using mobile phones: The development of CrowdHydrology

Citizen science-based approaches to monitor the natural environment tend to be bimodal in maturity. Older and established programs such as the Audubon’s Christmas bird count and Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) have thousands of participants across decades of observations, while less mature citizen science projects have shorter lifespans often focused on local or regional observations with tens or hundreds of participants. For the latter, it can be difficult to transition into a more mature and sustainable citizen science-based research program. This paper focuses on this transition by evaluating CrowdHydrology (ca. 2010), a citizen science project that has transitioned from a regional to national network. It evaluates the data accuracy, citizen participation, and station popularity. The CrowdHydrology network asks citizens to send in text messages of water levels in streams and lakes, which has resulted in 16,294 observations submitted by over 8,000 unique participants at 120 unique locations. Using water level data and participation records from CrowdHydrology, we analyze the expansion and citizen participation from a regional to national citizen science network. We identify barriers to participation and evaluate why some citizen science observation stations are popular while others are not. We explore our chosen contributory program model for CrowdHydrology and the influence this model has had on long-term participation. Results demonstrate a highly variable rate of contributions of citizen scientists. This paper proposes hypotheses on why many of our observations are from one-time participants and why some monitoring stations are more popular than others. Finally, we address the future expansion of the CrowdHydrology network by evaluating successful monitoring locations and growing interest of watershed groups to expand the network of gauges.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2022

Assessing effects of sediment delivery to coral reefs: A Caribbean watershed perspective

Coral reefs in the western Atlantic and Caribbean are deteriorating primarily from disease outbreaks, increasing seawater temperatures, and stress due to land-based sources of pollutants including sediments associated with land use and dredging. Sediments affect corals in numerous ways including smothering, abrasion, shading, and inhibition of coral recruitment. Sediment delivery resulting in deposition and water quality deterioration can cause degradation at the spatial scale of corals or entire reefs. We still lack rigorous long-term studies of coral cover and community composition before, during and after major sediment stress, and evidence of recovery after watershed management actions. Here we present an overview of the effects of terrestrial sediments on corals and coral reefs, with recent advances in approaches to watershed assessment relevant to the delivery of sediments to these ecosystems. We present case studies of northeastern Caribbean watersheds to illustrate challenges and possible solutions and to draw conclusions about the current state of knowledge of sediment effects on coral reefs. With a better understanding of erosion and the pathways of sediment discharge to nearshore reefs, there is the increased potential for management interventions.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2017

Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions

Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects. The integration of measurements and models can supply this information. However, the types of measurements and models that should be integrated are dependent on management questions and information compatibility. We summarize the importance of GIWs in watersheds and discuss what wetland connectivity means in both science and management contexts. We then describe the latest tools available to quantify GIW connectivity and explore crucial next steps to enhancing and integrating such tools. These advancements will ensure that appropriate tools are used in GIW decision making and maintaining the important ecosystem services that these wetlands support.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2026

Repeated coral bleaching events have eroded reef accretion potential in the Florida Keys

Coral bleaching is now the primary driver of coral-reef degradation globally, threatening the persistence of coral-reef functions and the invaluable ecosystem services they support. The Florida Keys have been impacted by four severe, regional-scale coral-bleaching events, which occurred in 1997–1998, 2005, 2014–2015, and 2023. Our aim in this study was to quantify the effects of those thermal-stress events on the persistence of coral-reef structures. We leveraged long-term coral-reef monitoring data to quantify the impacts of coral bleaching on coral cover, carbonate production, and reef-accretion potential throughout the Florida Keys from 1996–2024. Our study indicates that coral bleaching drove significant declines of reef-building corals, which successively diminished regional-scale reef-accretion potential (from 1.65 ± 0.33 mm y -1 in 1996) and culminated with a regional-scale transition to net reef erosion (-0.12 ± 0.08 mm y -1 ) following the 2023 event. Coral bleaching was the primary driver of declining reef-building capacity, with the cumulative impacts of the four coral-bleaching events accounting for >75% of total declines since 1996. The 1997–1998 event alone drove ~50% of overall declines, largely due to losses of the shallow-water ecosystem engineer, Acropora palmata . More moderate impacts of thermal stress on regional reef-accretion potential in 2005 (6%) and 2014–2015 (9%) could lend some support to the hypothesis that the remaining corals were more thermally tolerant; however, the unprecedented thermal stress event in 2023 caused widespread coral-bleaching and bleaching-related mortality, and caused an additional 12% of the total decline in reef-accretion potential. Stony-coral tissue loss disease accounted for an additional 6% of the decline, with the remaining 19% unexplained. Coral bleaching has already dramatically reshaped the structure and function of coral reefs in the Florida Keys over the last three decades. With the high likelihood that thermal stress will accelerate moving forward, the persistence of Florida’s essential coral-reef functions and services is uncertain.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Stratigraphic architecture and fluvial interpretations of the Upper Cretaceous (Turonian?) Middendorf Formation, Chesterfield County, South Carolina, U.S.A.

The Upper Cretaceous (Turonian?) Middendorf Formation is a sand-rich stratigraphic unit of fluvial origin that forms a large aquifer in the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain. In Chesterfield County (South Carolina), which is the site of the type locality, the formation ranges in thickness from 66.5 to > 119.7 meters. The base of the formation is an unconformity above Paleozoic metasiltstone, and the upper contact is an unconformity above which lies sand of the Quaternary Pinehurst Formation. Outcrops display the following five facies assemblages: 1) sandstone to conglomeratic sandstone (fluvial bar and channel deposits), 2) beds of alternating laminae of sandstone and mudstone (fluvial overbank or floodplain deposits), 3) ≥ 1 m-thick beds of clay (swamp deposits, floodplain deposits, and/or sediment that accumulated in abandoned fluvial channels), 4) 0.2–0.5 m-thick planar to slightly undulatory beds of framework-supported sandstone with a mud matrix (traction-dominated current deposits at the top of fluvial bars, upper-flow-regime bedform deposits in subsidiary fluvial channels, or coarse-grained overbank deposits), and 5) sandstone to conglomeratic sandstone cemented by iron (interpreted as fluvial bar and channel deposits, with the iron cement being a diagenetic “groundwater ferricrete” that formed via the circulation of shallow groundwater and the oxidation of iron-bearing minerals). Kaolinite in various forms is pervasive throughout the formation and is interpreted as an early diagenetic phenomenon that formed by prolonged postdepositional weathering and flushing by meteoric water under a warm and humid paleoclimate. The fluvial system that formed the Middendorf Formation prograded into the area from the west or northwest from uplifted margins of Mesozoic rift basins and/or the Appalachian Mountains. This progradation was a response to a base-level fall and the sediment accumulated during base-level lowstand and subsequent early transgression. In Chesterfield County, the Middendorf Formation can be subdivided into three fining-upward sequences. Each sequence consists predominantly of medium to coarse sand with a greater abundance of gravel in the lower part of the sequence and a greater abundance of clay and silt beds in the upper part. Each sequence is interpreted as either a response to autogenic processes or a response to allogenic sea-level changes, specifically a higher-order (higher-frequency) progression from relative lowstand conditions to early transgression whereby coarse sand and gravel (e.g., fluvial bar and channel deposits) were preserved during initial lowstand conditions and a greater proportion of mud and finer-grained sand (floodplain deposits) were preserved during subsequent early transgression. The Middendorf Formation is correlative with several other kaolinite-rich fluvial sandstones in North America including the Raritan Formation in New Jersey, the Tuscaloosa Formation of the eastern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana), the Woodbine Formation of the central Gulf of Mexico (Texas), and the Frontier Formation of Wyoming. The accumulation and preservation of these formations occurred in response to a Turonian eustatic sea-level fall and subsequent transgression, and the early diagenetic kaolinite in these formations is attributed to similar warm and humid paleoclimate conditions.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS1983

U.S. Geological Survey program of offshore resource and geoenvironmental studies, Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico region, from September 1, 1976, to December 31, 1978

Mineral and energy resources of the continental margins of the United States arc important to the Nation's commodity independence and to its balance of payments. These resources are being studied along the continental margins of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico in keeping with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey to survey the geologic structures, mineral resources, and products of the national domain.'(Organic Act of 1879). An essential corollary to these resource studies is the study of potential geologic hazards that may be associated with offshore resource exploration and exploitation. In cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the Geological Survey, through its Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program, carries out extensive research to evaluate hazards from sediment mobility, shallow gas, and slumping and to acquire information on the distribution and concentration of trace metals and biogenic and petroleum-derived hydrocarbons in sea-floor sediments. All these studies arc providing needed background information, including information on pollutant dispersal, on the nearshore, estuarine, and lacustrine areas that may be near pipeline and nuclear powerplant sites. Users of these data include the Congress, many Federal agencies, the coastal States, private industry, academia, and the concerned public. The results of the regional structural, stratigraphic, and resource studies carried out under the Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program have been used by the Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land Management to select areas for future leasing and to aid in the evaluation of tracts nominated for leasing. Resource studies have concentrated mostly on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf frontier areas. Geologic detailing of five major basins along the U.S. Atlantic margin, where sediments are as much as 14 km thick, have been revealed by 25,000 km of 24-and 48-channel common-depth-point seismic data, 187,000 km of acromagnetic data, and 39,000 km of gravity data, plus 10,000 samples and logs obtained from U.S. Geological Survey and industry drilling (for example, coreholes of the Atlantic Slope Program, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Deep Earth Sampling, Continental Offshore Stratigraphic Tests, and the Atlantic Margin Coring Program). A sedimentary section of Jurassic and Cretaceous age grades from terrigenous clastic rocks nearshore to carbonate rocks offshore; this section is part of an extensive buried bank-platform complex that could contain large reserves of natural gas and oil. The volume of sediment deposited offshore far exceeds the volume deposited onshore where extensive accumulations of oil, gas, and minerals have been found. Commercial exploratory drilling offshore thus far has been limited to the Baltimore Canyon Trough area off New Jersey, where at least two holes have found gas; leasing has taken place in the Southeast Georgia Embayment, where drilling was scheduled to begin in 1979, and is imminent in the Georges Bank area off New England. In addition, hydrogeologic and hydrochemical data obtained from the drilling studies have delineated freshwater-bearing submarine extensions of land aquifers that are important coastal ground-water resources. Hazards in the Georges Bank area include sand mobility associated with strong currents and storm-driven waves; high concentrations of suspended sediment in the water column that, when mixed with spilled oil, may sink to the bottom; and slumping along the upper slope. In the Baltimore Canyon, high sediment mobility accompanies major winter storms, and slumped material may cover as much as 20 percent of the upper slope. Potentially unstable slope areas are being studied in great detail to provide data on timing, triggering mechanisms, and rates of sediment movement. In the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Blake Plateau Basin, strong Gulf Stream flow poses a major problem to all offshore operations. In the Gulf o

Circular↗