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USGS2003

Fire and amphibians in North America

Information on amphibian responses to fire and fuel reduction practices is critically needed due to potential declines of species and the prevalence of new, more intensive fire management practices in North American forests. The goals of this review are to summarize the known and potential effects of fire and fuels management on amphibians and their aquatic habitats, and to identify information gaps to help direct future scientific research. Amphibians as a group are taxonomically and ecologically diverse; in turn, responses to fire and associated habitat alteration are expected to vary widely among species and among geographic regions. Available data suggest that amphibian responses to fire are spatially and temporally variable and incompletely understood. Much of the limited research has addressed short-term (1–3 years) effects of prescribed fire on terrestrial life stages of amphibians in the southeastern United States. Information on the long-term negative effects of fire on amphibians and the importance of fire for maintaining amphibian communities is sparse for the majority of taxa in North America. Given the size and severity of recent wildland fires and the national effort to reduce fuels on federal lands, future studies are needed to examine the effects of these landscape disturbances on amphibians. We encourage studies to address population-level responses of amphibians to fire by examining how different life stages are affected by changes in aquatic, riparian, and upland habitats. Research designs need to be credible and provide information that is relevant for fire managers and those responsible for assessing the potential effects of various fuel reduction alternatives on rare, sensitive, and endangered amphibian species.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS1999

Fire, red squirrels, whitebark pine, and Yellowstone grizzly bears

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) habitats are important to Yellowstone grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) as refugia and sources of food. Ecological relationships between whitebark pine, red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ), and grizzly bear use of pine seeds on Mt. Washburn in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, were examined during 1984-86. Following large-scale fires in 1988, we repeated the study in 1995-97 to examine the effects of fire on availability of whitebark pine seed in red squirrel middens and on bear use of middens. Half of the total length of the original line transects burned. We found no red squirrel middens in burned areas. Post-fire linear-abundance (no./km) of active squirrel middens that were pooled from burned and unburned areas decreased 27% compared to pre-fire abundance, but increased in unburned portions of some habitat types. Mean size of active middens decreased 54% post-fire. Use of pine seeds by bears (linear abundance of excavated middens) in pooled burned and unburned habitats decreased by 64%, likely due to the combined effects of reduced midden availability and smaller midden size. We discourage any further large-scale losses of seed producing trees from management-prescribed fires or timber harvesting until the effects of fire on ecological relationships in the whitebark pine zone are better understood.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Fire patterns in the range of the greater sage-grouse, 1984-2013 - Implications for conservation and management

Fire ranks among the top three threats to the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) throughout its range, and among the top two threats in the western part of its range. The national research strategy for this species and the recent U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3336 call for science-based threats assessment of fire to inform conservation planning and fire management efforts. The cornerstone of such assessments is a clear understanding of where fires are occurring and what aspects of fire regimes may be shifting outside of their historical range of variation. This report fulfills this need by describing patterns of fire area, fire size, fire rotation, and fire season length and timing from 1984 to 2013 across the range of the greater sage-grouse. This information need is further addressed by evaluating the ecological and management implications of these fire patterns. Analyses are stratified by major vegetation types and the seven greater sage-grouse management zones, delineated regionally as four western and three eastern management zones. Soil temperature and moisture indicators of resilience to fire and resistance to cheatgrass invasion, and the potential for establishment of a grass/fire cycle, are used as unifying concepts in developing fire threat assessments for each analysis strata. The results indicate that fire threats are higher in the four western than in the three eastern management zones. Among the four western management zones, the Snake River Plain and the Columbia Basin ranked somewhat higher than the Southern Great Basin and Northern Great Basin in terms of fire effects on sage-grouse habitat. These results support the previous high ranking of fire as a threat to the greater sage-grouse in the western region. In contrast, considering the low rankings for fire threats in the eastern region, it may be useful to reconsider the relative importance of wildfire as a threat to greater sage-grouse in those three management zones.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗

USGS2013

Regional constraints to biological nitrogen fixation in post-fire forest communities

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is a key ecological process that can restore nitrogen (N) lost in wildfire and shape the pace and pattern of post-fire forest recovery. To date, there is limited information on how climate and soil fertility interact to influence different pathways of BNF in early forest succession. We studied asymbiotic (forest floor and soil) and symbiotic (the shrub Ceanothus integerrimus) BNF rates across six sites in the Klamath National Forest, California, USA. We used combined gradient and experimental phosphorus (P) fertilization studies to explore cross-site variation in BNF rates and then related these rates to abiotic and biotic variables. We estimate that our measured BNF rates 22 years after wildfire (6.1–12.1 kg N·ha -1 ·yr -1 ) are unlikely to fully replace wildfire N losses. We found that asymbiotic BNF is P limited, although this is not the case for symbiotic BNF in Ceanothus. In contrast, Ceanothus BNF is largely driven by competition from other vegetation: in high-productivity sites with high potential evapotranspiration (Et), shrub biomass is suppressed as tree biomass increases. Because shrub biomass governed cross-site variation in Ceanothus BNF, this competitive interaction led to lower BNF in sites with high productivity and Et. Overall, these results suggest that the effects of nutrients play a larger role in driving asymbiotic than symbiotic fixation across our post-fire sites. However, because symbiotic BNF is 8–90 x greater than asymbiotic BNF, it is interspecific plant competition that governs overall BNF inputs in these forests.

California↗

USGS2018

Quantifying variance across spatial scales as part of fire regime classifications

The emergence of large‐scale fire classifications and products informed by remote sensing data has enabled opportunities to include variability or heterogeneity as part of modern fire regime classifications. Currently, basic fire metrics such as mean fire return intervals are calculated without considering spatial variance in a management context. Fire return intervals are also only applicable at a particular grain size (defined as the spatial unit of interest) even though they are typically applied homogeneously. In this study, we utilized a 29‐yr fire occurrence database to show how spatial variance changes with respect to grain as postulated by Wiens ( 1989 ) when reporting fire patterns within the Great Plains, USA. We utilized data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database of fire occurrence for the years 1984–2012. We analyzed median numbers of fire along with their variance at four spatial grains ranging from small units (e.g., plots at 3 × 3 km resolution) to large units (e.g., landscapes at 1500 × 2700 km resolution). Median number of fire occurrences was consistently low, irrespective of grain. Despite the consistency in low median numbers of fires across grain, variance in the numbers of fires between units decreased. Variance within units, however, did not change as grain increased indicating fire‐pattern‐scale inconsistencies. Fire pattern interpretations depended entirely on the scale at which it is calculated. Given that the Great Plains region has a large disparity in fire patterns (i.e., some regions burn often, while others may never burn), fire regime classifications will benefit from including scale‐specific variance estimates as a foundation for understanding changes in fire regimes and corresponding social–ecological and policy responses.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2022

Potential cheatgrass abundance within lightly invaded areas of the Great Basin

Context Anticipating where an invasive species could become abundant can help guide prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing invasion impacts. Information on potential abundance can be combined with information on the current status of an invasion to guide management towards currently uninvaded locations where the threat of invasion is high. Objectives We aimed to support management by developing predictive maps of potential cover for cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), a problematic invader that can transform plant communities. We integrated our predictions of potential abundance with mapped estimates of current cover to quantify invasion potential within lightly invaded areas. Methods We used quantile regression to model cheatgrass abundance as a function of climate, weather, and disturbance, treating outputs as low to high invasion scenarios. We developed a species-specific set of covariates and validated model performance using spatially and temporally independent data. Results Potential cheatgrass abundance was higher in areas that had burned, at low elevations, and when fall germination conditions were more favorable. Our results highlight the extensive areas across the Great Basin where cheatgrass abundance could increase to levels that can alter fire behavior and cause other ecological impacts. Conclusions We predict potential cheatgrass abundance to quantify relative invasion risk. Our model results provide high and low scenarios of cheatgrass abundance to guide resource allocation and planning efforts across shrubland ecosystems of the Great Basin that remain relatively uninvaded. Combining information on an invasive species’ current and potential abundance can yield spatial predictions to guide resource allocation and management action.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2013

Reconstructing satellite images to quantify spatially explicit land surface change caused by fires and succession: A demonstration in the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska

Land surface change caused by fires and succession is confounded by many site-specific factors and requires further study. The objective of this study was to reveal the spatially explicit land surface change by minimizing the confounding factors of weather variability, seasonal offset, topography, land cover, and drainage. In a pilot study of the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska, we retrieved Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo, and land surface temperature (LST) from a postfire Landsat image acquired on August 5th, 2004. With a Landsat reference image acquired on June 26th, 1986, we reconstructed NDVI, albedo, and LST of 1987–2004 fire scars for August 5th, 2004, assuming that these fires had not occurred. The difference between actual postfire and assuming-no-fire scenarios depicted the fires and succession impact. Our results demonstrated the following: (1) NDVI showed an immediate decrease after burning but gradually recovered to prefire levels in the following years, in which burn severity might play an important role during this process; (2) Albedo showed an immediate decrease after burning but then recovered and became higher than prefire levels; and (3) Most fires caused surface warming, but cooler surfaces did exist; time-since-fire affected the prefire and postfire LST difference but no absolute trend could be found. Our approach provided spatially explicit land surface change rather than average condition, enabling a better understanding of fires and succession impact on ecological consequences at the pixel level.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2023

A nontarget, disturbance-resilient native species influences post-fire recovery and multiphasic herbicide-seeding outcomes in drylands threatened by exotic annual grasses

Native species that are abundant and persistent across disturbance-succession cycles can affect recovery and restoration of plant communities, especially in drylands. In the sagebrush-steppe deserts of North America, restoring deep-rooted perennial bunchgrasses (DRPBGs) is key to the strategy for breaking an increasingly problematic cycle of wildfire promoted by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) and displacement of perennials by post-fire increases in EAGs. We asked how Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda , POSE)—a common native grass that shares traits with EAGs such as resilience to disturbance and rapid, shallow-rooted, early season growth—(1) recovered after wildfire, (2) responded to different combinations of native-plant seedings of DRPBGs and EAG-targeting herbicides; and (3) in turn, related to DRPBG recovery. In repeated sampling of up to approximately 2,000 plots spanning 113,000 burned hectares, POSE was initially more abundant than DRPBGs until POSE began to decline 5 years post-fire, and POSE was marginally affected or unaffected by restoration treatments targeting DRPBGs or EAGs. In comparison, EAG cover decreased 8–16% where preemergent herbicide was sprayed and DRPBG cover increased 3–9% where they were drill-seeded, and the greatest EAG reductions and DRPBG increases were seen where seeding and herbicides were combined in a time-staggered fashion. Treatments had less target effects where POSE cover was high (>18%), which is also where EAG cover was scarcer and DRPBG cover greater, regardless of post-fire interventions. Consideration of the ecological role of disturbance-resilient species with ruderal characteristics that match traits of key invaders may improve the efficiency and effectiveness of restoration interventions.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2009

Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests

Abstract. Forest structure and species composition in many western U.S. coniferous forests have been altered through fire exclusion, past and ongoing harvesting practices, and livestock grazing over the 20th century. The effects of these activities have been most pronounced in seasonally dry, low and mid-elevation coniferous forests that once experienced frequent, low to moderate intensity, fire regimes. In this paper, we report the effects of Fire and Fire Surrogate (FFS) forest stand treatments on fuel load profiles, potential fire behavior, and fire severity under three weather scenarios from six western U.S. FFS sites. This replicated, multisite experiment provides a framework for drawing broad generalizations about the effectiveness of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments on surface fuel loads, forest structure, and potential fire severity. Mechanical treatments without fire resulted in combined 1-, 10-, and 100-hour surface fuel loads that were significantly greater than controls at three of five FFS sites. Canopy cover was significantly lower than controls at three of five FFS sites with mechanical-only treatments and at all five FFS sites with the mechanical plus burning treatment; fire-only treatments reduced canopy cover at only one site. For the combined treatment of mechanical plus fire, all five FFS sites with this treatment had a substantially lower likelihood of passive crown fire as indicated by the very high torching indices. FFS sites that experienced significant increases in 1-, 10-, and 100-hour combined surface fuel loads utilized harvest systems that left all activity fuels within experimental units. When mechanical treatments were followed by prescribed burning or pile burning, they were the most effective treatment for reducing crown fire potential and predicted tree mortality because of low surface fuel loads and increased vertical and horizontal canopy separation. Results indicate that mechanical plus fire, fire-only, and mechanical-only treatments using whole-tree harvest systems were all effective at reducing potential fire severity under severe fire weather conditions. Retaining the largest trees within stands also increased fire resistance. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2007

Rapid assessment of postfire plant invasions in coniferous forests of the western United States

Fire is a natural part of most forest ecosystems in the western United States, but its effects on nonnative plant invasion have only recently been studied. Also, forest managers are engaging in fuel reduction projects to lessen fire severity, often without considering potential negative ecological consequences such as nonnative plant species introductions. Increased availability of light, nutrients, and bare ground have all been associated with high-severity fires and fuel treatments and are known to aid in the establishment of nonnative plant species. We use vegetation and environmental data collected after wildfires at seven sites in coniferous forests in the western United States to study responses of nonnative plants to wildfire. We compared burned vs. unburned plots and plots treated with mechanical thinning and/or prescribed burning vs. untreated plots for nonnative plant species richness and cover and used correlation analyses to infer the effect of abiotic site conditions on invasibility. Wildfire was responsible for significant increases in nonnative species richness and cover, and a significant decrease in native cover. Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire fuel treatments were associated with significant changes in plant species composition at some sites. Treatment effects across sites were minimal and inconclusive due to significant site and site x treatment interaction effects caused by variation between sites including differences in treatment and fire severities and initial conditions (e.g., nonnative species sources). We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to determine what combinations of environmental variables best explained patterns of nonnative plant species richness and cover. Variables related to fire severity, soil nutrients, and elevation explained most of the variation in species composition. Nonnative species were generally associated with sites with higher fire severity, elevation, percentage of bare ground, and lower soil nutrient levels and lower canopy cover. Early assessments of postfire stand conditions can guide rapid responses to nonnative plant invasions. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Western United States↗

USGS1995

Landscape-scale fire history studies support fire management action at Bandelier

Fire has long been recognized as a key process determining the ecological structure and function of many southwestern forests (Weaver 1951). Major changes in southwestern fire regimes over the past century (Swetnam 1990) are having correspondingly large ecological effects on southwestern forests, including those of Bandelier National Monument in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico (Allen 1989). Ecologists and managers who seek to understand current landscapes require accurate information on the spatial and temporal variability in past fire regimes. This kind of information provides essential historical context that is needed to properly manage our modern park landscapes.

Park Science↗

USGS1984

Lightning fires in North Dakota grasslands and in pine-savanna lands of South Dakota and Montana

Lightning strike fires which occurred between 1940 and 1981 were studied in mixed-grass prairie grasslands and in pine-savanna lands in the Northern Great Plains region. A majority (73%) of ignitions occurred during July and August, while a lesser number was recorded in April, May, June, and September. The April-September period is also the average time of the freeze-free period and approximates the average distribution period for thunderstorm activity in this region. The area burned by each of 293 lightning fires (most of which were suppressed) ranged from 0.004-1158.3 ha ( X̄ = 10.8 ha). The frequency of lightning fires in mixed-grass prairie grasslands averaged 6.0/yr per 10,000 km 2 in eastern North Dakota, 22.4/yr per 10,000 km 2 in southcentral North Dakota, 24.7/yr per 10,000 km 2 in western North Dakota, and 91.7/yr per 10,000 km 2 in pine-savanna lands in northwestern South Dakota and southeastern Montana. The ecological role of lightning-set fires is discussed relative to the development of resource research and management plans and to the interpretation of historical records of natural fire occurrence in the Northern Great Plains region.

Journal of Range Management↗

USGS2012

Index for characterizing post-fire soil environments in temperate coniferous forests

Many scientists and managers have an interest in describing the environment following a fire to understand the effects on soil productivity, vegetation growth, and wildlife habitat, but little research has focused on the scientific rationale for classifying the post-fire environment. We developed an empirically-grounded soil post-fire index (PFI) based on available science and ecological thresholds. Using over 50 literature sources, we identified a minimum of five broad categories of post-fire outcomes: (a) unburned, (b) abundant surface organic matter ( > 85% surface organic matter), (c) moderate amount of surface organic matter ( ≥ 40 through 85%), (d) small amounts of surface organic matter ( < 40%), and (e) absence of surface organic matter (no organic matter left). We then subdivided each broad category on the basis of post-fire mineral soil colors providing a more fine-tuned post-fire soil index. We related each PFI category to characteristics such as soil temperature and duration of heating during fire, and physical, chemical, and biological responses. Classifying or describing post-fire soil conditions consistently will improve interpretations of fire effects research and facilitate communication of potential responses or outcomes (e.g., erosion potential) from fires of varying severities.

Forests↗

USGS2017

Trends and drivers of fire activity vary across California aridland ecosystems

Fire activity has increased in western US aridland ecosystems due to increased human-caused ignitions and the expansion of flammable exotic grasses. Because many desert plants are not adapted to fire, increased fire activity may have long-lasting ecological impacts on native vegetation and the wildlife that depend on it. Given the heterogeneity across aridland ecosystems, it is important to understand how trends and drivers of fire vary, so management can be customized accordingly. We examined historical trends and quantified the relative importance of and interactions among multiple drivers of fire patterns across five aridland ecoregions in southeastern California from 1970 to 2010. Fire frequency increased across all ecoregions for the first couple decades, and declined or plateaued since the 1990s; but area burned continued to increase in some regions. The relative importance of anthropogenic and biophysical drivers varied across ecoregions, with both direct and indirect influences on fire. Anthropogenic variables were equally important as biophysical variables, but some contributed indirectly, presumably via their influence on annual grass distribution and abundance. Grass burned disproportionately more than other cover types, suggesting that addressing exotics may be the key to fire management and conservation in much of the area.

California↗

USGS2023

Riparian vegetation response amid variable climate conditions across the Upper Gila River watershed: Informing Tribal restoration priorities

Riparian systems across the Southwest United States are extremely valuable for the human and ecological communities that engage with them. However, they have experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century, including non-native vegetation expansion, vegetation die-offs, and increased fire activity. Vegetation management approaches, such as ecological restoration, may address some of these stressors as well as reduce the risk of future impacts. We apply remote sensing to inform restoration priorities along the upper Gila River within the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed. First, we develop a spatially and temporally explicit trend analysis across three observed climate periods (1985–1993, 1993–2014, 2014–2021) using the Landsat-derived indices to quantify changes in riparian vegetation conditions. These maps can be used to identify areas potentially more at risk for degradation. Second, we analyze changes in riparian vegetation within a climate framework to better understand trends and the potential effect of climate change. Vegetation greenness has largely increased throughout the watershed despite intensifying drought conditions across our study period, though areas within the lower watershed have shown increased stress and higher rates of wildfire and other disturbances over the past 5-years. Nevertheless, small-scale restoration activities appear to show improving vegetation conditions, suggesting efficacy of these restoration activities. Results from this study may be integrated with restoration objectives to develop a restoration plan that will help riparian vegetation communities adapt to change.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Alternative future vegetation pathways reveal potential transformations of western US ecosystems

Managing ecosystems in an era of rapid change is inherently challenging not only because of uncertainty in future climate but also due to diverse responses of ecosystems to climate. Projections of ecological transformation alongside information about plausible vegetation trajectories can help land managers explore divergent scenarios and consider how modeled outcomes match their observations. Climate-analog impact models (AIMs) compare environmental information (e.g., vegetation types) between sets of climatically similar locations to infer change and can be used to identify multiple outcomes. We used AIMs to project changes in vegetation across the western United States under a mid-21st century climate scenario, characterize ecological transformation vulnerability based on projection divergence, and demonstrate how AIMs can inform decision-making. We projected high or very high vulnerability to ecological transformation across 29% of the western US, nearly 1 M km 2 . Vulnerability varied among vegetation groups; 75% of alpine vegetation had high or very high vulnerability vs. 6% of desert scrub. We estimate that 9% of the study area faces a high likelihood of transformation based on combined measures of vulnerability and projection agreement. Transformation at the vegetation type ( n = 50) level is projected for 40% (1.4 M km 2 ) of the study area, based on primary projections. As vegetation shifts towards types supported by a more arid climate, forested area is expected to contract by 9% and subalpine forests specifically by 54%. Elsewhere, vulnerability is low or trajectories are uncertain, implying opportunities for managers to intervene. Dry forests, for example, could be stabilized through vegetation management and intentional fire use. Our findings suggest likely ecological transformations with significant downstream consequences for ecosystem services and natural resources. They are best used within decision-making frameworks that draw on multiple lines of evidence including local expertise and complementary knowledge systems.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2014

Use of satellite imagery to identify vegetation cover changes following the Waldo Canyon Fire event, Colorado, 2012-2013

The Waldo Canyon Fire of 2012 was one of the most destructive wildfire events in Colorado history. The fire burned a total of 18,247 acres, claimed 2 lives, and destroyed 347 homes. The Waldo Canyon Fire continues to pose challenges to nearby communities. In a preliminary emergency assessment conducted in 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) concluded that drainage basins within and near the area affected by the Waldo Canyon Fire pose a risk for future debris flow events. Rainfall over burned, formerly vegetated surfaces resulted in multiple flood and debris flow events that affected the cities of Colorado Springs and Manitou Springs in 2013. One fatality resulted from a mudslide near Manitou Springs in August 2013. Federal, State, and local governments continue to monitor these hazards and other post-fire effects, along with the region’s ecological recovery. At the request of the Colorado Springs Office of Emergency Management, the USGS Special Applications Science Center developed a geospatial product to identify vegetation cover changes following the 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire event. Vegetation cover was derived from July 2012 WorldView-2 and September 2013 QuickBird multispectral imagery at a spatial resolution of two meters. The 2012 image was collected after the fire had reached its maximum extent. Per-pixel increases and decreases in vegetation cover were identified by measuring spectral changes that occurred between the 2012 and 2013 image dates. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Green-Near Infrared Index (GRNIR) were computed from each image. These spectral indices are commonly used to characterize vegetation cover and health condition, due to their sensitivity to detect foliar chlorophyll content. Vector polygons identifying surface-cover feature boundaries were derived from the 2013 imagery using image segmentation software. This geographic software groups similar image pixels into vector objects based upon their spatial and spectral characteristics. The vector dataset was then populated with the per-pixel spectral change information to provide an estimated percentage of vegetation increase or decrease of pixels within each polygon. Information collected during a field visit to the Waldo Canyon burn scar in September 2013 was used to help validate this assessment (see photographs 1-3). The numbers on the satellite images correspond to the location of the photographs. For display purposes, the polygons shown on the map represent areas where significant decrease or increase in vegetation cover occurred. Only polygons that held a 70 percent or greater cover change are shown on this map (a GIS dataset with complete information is available upon request). A significant increase in vegetation cover was found in the burned area. This increase is likely due to the growth of grasses and other herbaceous vegetation. Minimal vegetation cover decrease was detected at this threshold. This product is meant to provide a broad survey of post-fire vegetation trends within the Waldo Canyon burned area to Federal, State, and local officials. It is not designed to quantify species-level vegetation change at this time.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types as an alternative to species distribution models for projecting plant species shifts under changing climates

Land managers need new tools for planning novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used extensively to predict future distributions of species under different climates, but their map products are often too coarse for fine-scale operational use. In this study we developed a flexible, efficient, and robust method for mapping current and future distributions and abundances of vegetation species and communities at the fine spatial resolutions that are germane to land management. First, we mapped Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) using conventional statistical modeling techniques (Random Forests) that used bioclimatic ecosystem process and climate variables as predictors. We obtained over 50% accuracy across 13 mapped PVTs for our study area. We then applied future climate projections as climate input to the Random Forest model to generate future PVT maps, and used field data describing the occurrence of tree and non-tree species in each PVT category to model and map species distribution for current and future climate. These maps were then compared to two previous SDM mapping efforts with over 80% agreement and equivalent accuracy. Because PVTs represent the biophysical potential of the landscape to support vegetation communities as opposed to the vegetation that currently exists, they can be readily linked to climate forecasts and correlated with other, climate-sensitive ecological processes significant in land management, such as fire regimes and site productivity.

Montana↗