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To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

Ecology

Ecological Requirements for Pallid Sturgeon Reproduction and Recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: A Research Synthesis 2005-08

This report provides a synthesis of results obtained between 2005 and 2008 from the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program, an interagency collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Recovery - Integrated Science Program. The goal of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program is to improve fundamental understanding of reproductive ecology of the pallid sturgeon with the intent that improved understanding will inform river and species management decisions. Specific objectives include: *Determining movement, habitat-use, and reproductive behavior of pallid sturgeon; *Understanding reproductive physiology of pallid sturgeon and relations to environmental conditions; *Determining origin, transport, and fate of drifting pallid sturgeon larvae, and evaluating bottlenecks for recruitment of early life stages; *Quantifying availability and dynamics of aquatic habitats needed by pallid sturgeon for all life stages; and *Managing databases, integrating understanding, and publishing relevant information into the public domain. Management actions to increase reproductive success and survival of pallid sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River have been focused on flow regime, channel morphology, and propagation. Integration of 2005-08 Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program research provides insight into linkages among flow regime, re-engineered channel morphology, and pallid sturgeon reproduction and survival. The research approach of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program integrates opportunistic field studies, field-based experiments, and controlled laboratory studies. The field study plan is designed to explore the role of flow regime and associated environmental cues using two complementary approaches. An upstream-downstream approach compares sturgeon reproductive behavior between an upstream section of the Lower Missouri River with highly altered flow regime to a downstream section that maintains much of its pre-regulation flow variability. The upstream section also has the potential for an experimental approach to compare reproductive behavior in years with pulsed flow modifications ('spring rises') to years without. The reproductive cycle of the female sturgeon requires several years to progress through gonadal development, oocyte maturation, and spawning. Converging lines of evidence support the hypothesis that maturation and readiness to spawn in female sturgeon is cued many months before spawning. Information on reproductive readiness of shovelnose sturgeon indicates that sturgeon at different locations along the Lower Missouri River between St. Louis and Gavins Point Dam are all responding to the same early cue. Although not a perfect surrogate, the more abundant shovelnose sturgeon is morphologically, physiologically, and genetically similar to pallid sturgeon, and thereby provides a useful comparative model for the rarer species. Day length is the likely candidate to define a temporal spawning window. Within the spawning window, one or more additional, short-term, and specific cues may serve to signal ovulation and release of gametes. Of three potential spawning cues - water temperature, water discharge, and day of year - water temperature is the most likely proximate cue because of the fundamental physiological role temperature plays in sturgeon embryo development and survival, and the sensitivity of many fish hormones to temperature change. It also is possible that neither temperature nor discharge is cueing spawning; instead, reproductive behavior may result from the biological clock advancing an individual fish's readiness to spawn day after day through the spawning period until the right moment, independent of local environmental conditions. Separation of the individual effects of discharge events, water temperature, and other possible factors, such as proximity to male

Scientific Investigations Report

Concentrations of environmental DNA (eDNA) reflect spawning salmon abundance at fine spatial and temporal scales

Developing fast, cost-effective assessments of wild animal abundance is an important goal for many researchers, and environmental DNA (eDNA) holds much promise for this purpose. However, the quantitative relationship between species abundance and the amount of DNA present in the environment is likely to vary substantially among taxa and with ecological context. Here, we report a strong quantitative relationship between eDNA concentration and the abundance of spawning sockeye salmon in a small stream in Alaska, USA, where we took temporally- and spatially-replicated samples during the spawning period. This high-resolution dataset suggests that (1) eDNA concentrations vary significantly day-to-day, and likely within hours, in the context of the dynamic biological event of a salmon spawning season; (2) eDNA, as detected by species-specific quantitative PCR probes, seems to be conserved over short distances (tens of meters) in running water, but degrade quickly over larger scales (ca. 1.5 km); and (3) factors other than the mere presence of live, individual fish — such as location within the stream, live/dead ratio, and water temperature — can affect the eDNA-biomass correlation in space or time. A multivariate model incorporating both biotic and abiotic variables accounted for over 75% of the eDNA variance observed, suggesting that where a system is well-characterized, it may be possible to predict species' abundance from eDNA surveys, although we underscore that species- and system-specific variables are likely to limit the generality of any given quantitative model. Nevertheless, these findings provide an important step toward quantitative applications of eDNA in conservation and management.

Alaska

Small creatures, big challenge: A review of current knowledge and assessment of research needs to inform water withdrawal management for the Duck River's freshwater mussel fauna

The Duck River is a remarkable national resource, boasting outstanding biodiversity (Ahlstedt et al. 2017). It contains 151 fish species, over 60 mussel species, and 22 snail species, many of which are federally listed (Etnier and Starnes 1993; Johnson et al. 2013; Ahlstedt et al. 2017; Womble and Rosenberger 2025a). The Duck River watershed is at a pivotal time in its management and ecological history due to significant growth in human population and economic activity. The consequent increase in surface water demand presents challenges for sustainable water resource management. The Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) has permitted or proposed to permit eight water utilities to withdraw over 77 million gallons per day (mgd) from the Duck River, representing > 40% increase from previously permitted amounts (USFWS 2025). On November 20, 2024, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee signed Executive Order No 108 to ensure long-term stability of the Duck River watershed through balancing economic growth, water resource management, and environmental conservation. Some primary components of this plan are the creation of a Comprehensive Regional Drought Management Plan, the development of a Habitat Conservation Plan, and the establishment of the Duck River Watershed Planning Partnership (DRWPP). Although the planning partnership is not focused on a sole aspect of the Duck River, but the watershed as a whole, the mussel assemblages of the Duck River have been a particular focus due to their importance in providing ecosystem services, sensitivity to water quality, conservation status, and sensitivity to periodic drought conditions in this system. With multiple state and federal agencies involved in managing the Duck River’s unique water resources, a focused review on how future water management could affect the freshwater mussel communities in the Duck River will contribute to this process. Our objectives of this review are to: 1. Review the effects of changing flow regimes on mussels, with emphasis on the effect of droughts/low flows, highlighting key processes/factors affecting mussels. 2. Highlight critical data gaps that could allow future, evidence-based water management decisions in this system. 3. Propose research topics to address critical data gaps and enable evidence-based water management decisions that consider the needs of freshwater mussels. Freshwater mussels are a critical component of riverine ecosystems, providing ecosystem services including water filtration, nutrient cycling, and habitat provision (Vaughn et al. 2004; Haag 2012) that benefit human communities. Environmental flows, also referred to as ecological or e-flows, refer to the quantity, timing, and quality of water flows necessary to maintain the ecological health of rivers, wetlands, and other aquatic ecosystems (Acreman and Dunbar 2004; Acreman 2016). For freshwater mussels, environmental flows include maintaining a flow regime and associated water quality regimes that are favorable for both juveniles and adults while also seasonally supporting host fish and the survival of settling glochidia (i.e., larval mussels) in suitable environments (Gates et al. 2015). Freshwater mussels are adapted to the natural flow regime of their native streams, including seasonal variability in flows. As sedentary filter feeders, mussels require adequate water flow to provide oxygen and food (Allen and Vaughn 2009); however, they also require periods of low flow to increase access to fish hosts and to ensure juveniles are not displaced (Gates et al 2015). Mussels are sensitive to water quality conditions, including pollutants, sedimentation, and artificial alterations of temperature and pH (Strayer and Malcom 2012). Mussel community characteristics, including presence, abundance, and species richness, generally increase with stream size (e.g., stream order); however, responses to changes in flow conditions are often species-specific, and the magnitude and timing of extreme flow conditions have more predictive power for mussel community response than general changes in flow (Lopez and Vaughn 2021). Complex hydraulic variables, such as relative shear stress and Reynolds number, can be strong predictors of mussel community responses because they combine simple hydraulic variables (e.g., velocity, depth) with stream channel characteristics, such as substrate composition and dynamics. Droughts directly and indirectly affect mussels by influencing their physiology, behavior, reproduction, and ecosystem roles. Mass mussel die-offs during droughts and low water conditions are widely documented (Vaughn et al. 2015; Sousa et al. 2018; Dubose et al. 2019). Droughts can also lead to a shift in mussel community composition, with drought-tolerant species becoming more dominant while more sensitive species experience declines (Galbraith et al, 2010; Lopez et al. 2022; Vaughn and Atkinson 2025). Droughts affect mussels through direct mortality from stranding as well as physiological stress from altered water temperature and quality, reduced habitat and food availability and quality, increased predation and competition, disruption of reproductive cycles, and increased susceptibility to disease and pathogens. Although the effects of droughts, water withdrawals, and low flow conditions on mussels are an increasing area of study, there is a general paucity of data-driven consensus regarding optimal mitigation approaches and strategies (Cushway et al. 2024). Long-term management decisions regarding water withdrawals, particularly during extended or multi-year drought conditions, may consider factors beyond direct mortality such as the sublethal effects of drought and low flow conditions on freshwater mussels for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of prolonged low flows on freshwater mussels and aquatic communities.

Tennessee

Integrating science and resource management in Tampa Bay, Florida

Tampa Bay is recognized internationally for its remarkable progress towards recovery since it was pronounced "dead" in the late 1970s. Due to significant efforts by local governments, industries and private citizens throughout the watershed, water clarity in Tampa Bay is now equal to what it was in 1950, when population in the watershed was less than one-quarter of what it is today. Seagrass extent has increased by more than 8,000 acres since the mid-1980s, and fish and wildlife populations are increasing. Central to this successful turn-around has been the Tampa Bay resource management community's long-term commitment to development and implementation of strong science-based management strategies. Research institutions and agencies, including Eckerd College, the Florida Wildlife Commission Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, University of South Florida, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, local and State governments, and private companies contribute significantly to the scientific basis of our understanding of Tampa Bay's structure and ecological function. Resource management agencies, including the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council's Agency on Bay Management, the Southwest Florida Water Management District's Surface Water Improvement and Management Program, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, depend upon this scientific basis to develop and implement regional adaptive management programs. The importance of integrating science with management has become fully recognized by scientists and managers throughout the region, State and Nation. Scientific studies conducted in Tampa Bay over the past 10–15 years are increasingly diverse and complex, and resource management programs reflect our increased knowledge of geology, hydrology and hydrodynamics, ecology and restoration techniques. However, a synthesis of this research and its integration into resource management has not been prepared for Tampa Bay since the mid-1980s. The need for an up-to-date synthesis of Tampa Bay science and management has resulted in the production of this document. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a 5-year Tampa Bay Integrated Science Study, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program updated the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for Tampa Bay in 2006. These efforts build upon results of the many research and management studies and programs summarized here.

Florida

Review of Results and Recommendations from the GCMRC 2000-2003 Remote-Sensing Initiative for Monitoring Environmental Resources Within the Colorado River Ecosystem

In mid-2000, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) began a remote-sensing initiative to evaluate all remote-sensing technologies and methods that had potential for providing improved data (capability) for its various programs that monitor the Colorado River ecosystem (CRE). The primary objective of the initiative was to determine the most cost-effective data collection protocols for GCMRC programs that (1) provide the accuracies required for currently measured parameters, (2) provide additional parameters for ecological monitoring, (3) reduce environmental impact by being less invasive than current methods, and (4) expand geographic extent of current ground approaches. The initial phase of the remote-sensing initiative determined the types of sampling parameters and their required accuracies for monitoring. This information was used to determine the most appropriate sensors for evaluation. The initiative evaluated 25 different data collections over a three-year period; many more remote-sensing instruments were considered, but were not evaluated because they could not meet the basic requirements on spatial resolution, wavelength, positional accuracy, or elevation accuracy. It was hoped that the evaluations would lead to a minimum set of technologies that would satisfy many program requirements. The results from all of our evaluations are reviewed in this report and are briefly summarized in this report.

Open-File Report

Understanding how microbiomes influence the systems they inhabit

Translating the ever-increasing wealth of information on microbiomes (environment, host, or built environment) to advance the understanding of system-level processes is proving to be an exceptional research challenge. One reason for this challenge is that relationships between characteristics of microbiomes and the system-level processes they influence are often evaluated in the absence of a robust conceptual framework and reported without elucidating the underlying causal mechanisms. The reliance on correlative approaches limits the potential to expand the inference of a single relationship to additional systems and advance the field. We propose that research focused on how microbiomes influence the systems they inhabit should work within a common framework and target known microbial processes that contribute to the system-level processes of interest. Here we identify three distinct categories of microbiome characteristics (microbial processes, microbial community properties, and microbial membership) and propose a framework to empirically link each of these categories to each other and the broader system level processes they affect. We posit that it is particularly important to distinguish microbial community properties that can be predicted from constituent taxa (community aggregated traits) from and those properties that are currently unable to be predicted from constituent taxa (emergent properties). Existing methods in microbial ecology can be applied to more explicitly elucidate properties within each of these categories and connect these three categories of microbial characteristics with each other. We view this proposed framework, gleaned from a breadth of research on environmental microbiomes and ecosystem processes, as a promising pathway with the potential to advance discovery and understanding across a broad range of microbiome science.

Nature Microbiology

Nutritional stress affects corticosterone deposition in feathers of Caspian tern chicks

Stressful environmental conditions affect the adrenocortical function of developing animals, which can have consequences for their fitness. Discovery of the avian stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in feathers has the potential to broaden the application of endocrine research in ecological and evolutionary studies of wild birds by providing a long-term measure of CORT secretion. Mechanisms of CORT deposition in feathers are not well known and few studies have related feather CORT to circulating plasma CORT during feather growth. Our objective was to experimentally test the validity of using feather CORT as a measure of CORT secretion in developing birds experiencing nutritional stress. Caspian tern Hydroprogne caspia chicks were fed ad libitum or restricted (35% less than ad libitum) diets for four weeks. We measured CORT in feathers from these chicks to examine the relationship between feather CORT concentrations and nutritional limitation, circulating plasma CORT, and feather development. We found that feather CORT was higher in controls fed ad libitum than in restricted individuals, despite higher levels of plasma CORT in restricted chicks compared to controls. Feather mass and growth rates were strongly and positively related to feather CORT concentrations in both treatments. This is the first experimental study to show that feather CORT concentrations can be lower in response to nutritional stress, even when plasma CORT concentrations are elevated. Our results indicate that CORT deposition in feathers may be confounded when feather mass and growth rates are compromised by nutritional stress. We conclude that feather CORT can be used for assessing nutritional stress in growing birds, but the direction of response depends on how strongly stress affects feather development.

Journal of Avian Biology

Early post-fire succession in California chaparral: Changes in diversity, density, cover and biomass

For four consecutive years, following the fires in November 1993, temporal variations in species richness, cover and biomass of component plant groups in early post-fire chaparral succession were monitored on different aspects at the Stunt Ranch Santa Monica Mountains Reserve, southern California. Plant groups were categorized based on growth form, life form, ability to fix nitrogen, geographic origin and regeneration strategies. North-facing slopes exhibited higher species richness, higher species turnover rate over time and faster vegetation recovery in terms of biomass accumulation and return to pre-fire species composition. This was probably due to higher species richness and biomass of nitrogen-fixing species found on north-facing slopes in comparison to south-facing slopes. On both north- and south-facing slopes, annuals had the highest species turnover rate, followed by herbaceous perennials and shrubs. In the first four post-fire years, annual species were the largest floristic group, but herbaceous perennials and shrubs were the major contributors to community biomass. Nitrogen-fixing species and exotics contributed significantly to early post-fire community structure. Although the general trends in post-fire succession are clear in terms of temporal changes in the relative proportions of different plant groups, environmental variation and the nature of plant life histories of component species, especially dominant species, could alter such trends significantly.

Ecological Research

Selenium, mercury, and their molar ratios in sportfishes from drinking water reservoirs

Mercury (Hg) bioaccumulates in aquatic ecosystems and may pose a risk to humans who consume fish. Selenium (Se) has the ability to reduce Hg toxicity, but the current guidance for human consumption of fish is based on Hg concentration alone. The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between Se and Hg in freshwater sportfish, for which there is a paucity of existing data. We collected three species of fish from different trophic positions from two drinking water reservoirs in central North Carolina, USA, to assess Hg and Se concentrations in relation to fish total length and to compare two measures of the protective ability of Se, the Se:Hg molar ratio and Se health benefit value (HBV Se ), to current guidance for Hg. According to the Se:Hg molar ratio, all of the low trophic position fish sampled and the middle trophic position fish sampled from one of the reservoirs were safe for consumption. The same number of fish were considered safe using the HBV Se . More fish were deemed unsafe when using the Se:Hg molar ratio and HBV Se than were considered unsafe when using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Hg threshold. These findings suggest that the measures of Se protection may be unnecessarily conservative or that the USEPA Hg threshold may not be sufficiently protective of human health, especially the health of sensitive populations like pregnant or nursing mothers and young children. Future examination of the Se:Hg molar ratio and HBV Se from a variety of fish tissue samples would help refine the accuracy of these measures so that they may be appropriately utilized in ecological and human health risk assessment.

International Journal of Environmental Research an

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Global change and threats to waterbirds in the Asian flyways

Avian migration represents one of nature’s most spectacular phenomena, providing critical ecological services and acting as an indicator of environmental change. Flyways are geographical ranges through which migrating bird species move, and the flyway concept has been used to identify countries that share species to highlight their collective responsibility for conservation. Of the nine recognized global waterbird flyways, the Central Asian Flyway (CAF) and the East Asian–Australasian Flyway (EAAF) are among the most important areas in Eurasia, supporting millions of waterbirds across a vast network of habitats. We proposed this special issue in Avian Research entitled “Global Change and Threats to Waterbirds in the Asian Flyways” to synthesize recent findings from 12 papers covering a wide range of topics. The CAF stretches from the Siberian tundra through Central Asia including Mongolia, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Trans-Caucasus, and the Himalayas, extending south to the Indian subcontinent and parts of the Middle East. The EAAF spans eastern Siberia and Alaska to Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand, including China, Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and the Russian Far East. These two flyways include 47 countries comprising critical wetlands, river basins, and coastal areas, which are vital breeding, stopover, and wintering grounds for waterbirds. Seasonal migration in these flyways is fundamentally influenced by climate and weather conditions, land cover dynamics, and anthropogenic activities, and contributes significantly to ecological processes such as pest control, nutrient cycling, and organism dispersal. However, migratory waterbirds and their habitats are undergoing enormous challenges. Changes in climate, habitat availability and connectivity, and human activities are altering the phenology, distribution, population dynamics, and health of the migratory bird populations. As migratory waterbirds travel across international boundaries, understanding their movements and responses to environmental change requires collaborative, cross-border research efforts that promote knowledge sharing and interdisciplinary approaches.

Avian Research

Introduction: Exotic annual Bromus in the western USA

The spread and impacts of exotic species are unambiguous, global threats to many ecosystems. A prominent example is the suite of annual grasses in the Bromus genus ( Bromus hereafter) that originate from Europe and Eurasia but have invaded or are invading large areas of the Western USA. This book brings a diverse, multidisciplinary group of authors together to synthesize current knowledge, research needs, and management implications for Bromus . Exotic plant invasions are multifaceted problems, and understanding and managing them requires the biological, ecological, sociological, and economic perspectives that are integrated in this book. Knowing how well information from one geographic or environmental setting can transfer to another is a key need for broadly distributed Bromus species especially given ongoing climate change. Thus, the chapters in the book compare and contrast invasibility of different ecoregions and invasiveness of different Bromus species. A universal theme is managing for ecosystems that are resilient to disturbance and resistant to invasion which will be essential for adaptation to the human-caused problem of Bromus in the Western USA.

Book chapter

Seasonal and long-term clarity trend assessment of Lake Tahoe, California–Nevada

The clarity of Lake Tahoe, observed using a Secchi disk on a regular basis since the late 1960s, continues to be a sentinel metric of lake health. Water clarity is influenced by physical and biological processes and has declined in the five decades of monitoring, revealing differences between summer (June–September) and winter (December–March). This document summarizes key findings of a study of Lake Tahoe water clarity, including long-term variability and the relative importance of several influencing variables and processes. This study, prepared in cooperation with the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, focused on (1) an apparent divergence in clarity trends between summer and winter periods, (2) observed changes in in-lake physical and ecological variables that may influence or control seasonal and annual clarity trends, and (3) five research hypotheses regarding lake clarity that were developed by Lake Tahoe management agencies. Previously collected data were used to complete this study. Trend analysis confirmed that winter clarity stabilized (that is, there is no longer a statistically significant trend up or down) during the last 20 years. Evaluation of clarity for selected months in the 50-year Secchi disk clarity dataset showed that only two summer months, July and August, had statistically significant decreases in clarity from 2000–19. Different subsets of available data were analyzed to reveal the presence or absences of trends for each season, decade, and month. Five hypotheses related to lake clarity were part of the study described by this report. Hypothesis 1 stated that clarity is controlled predominantly by the distribution and volumetric density of fine particles in suspension. This hypothesis was studied using available data describing in-lake fine (0–20 micrometers) particles from 2008–19. Water clarity was negatively correlated with in-lake particle abundance, with particles in the 1.0-4.6 μm range having the greatest effect, consistent with light-scattering theory. Estimated abundances of diatoms of the genus Cyclotella also were found to be negatively correlated with clarity. Data limitations precluded a complete investigation of hypothesis 2, which stated that the observed improvements in winter water clarity are a response to decreasing fine suspended-sediment concentrations in the lake resulting from load reductions from upland sources in and near urbanized areas. Data describing fine-sediment loading from urban areas to the lake were only available since 2014, and only once or twice per month. A slight, statistically significant, negative correlation was identified between urban fine-particle loading and monthly lake clarity with a 4-month lag. Particle abundance in monitored streams is highly correlated with simultaneous particle abundance in the lake. Hypothesis 3 stated that changing hydrodynamic conditions in the lake are increasing thermal stability and resistance to mixing. Trend analyses performed on stability index and buoyancy frequency time series computed from long-term observations of lake temperatures support the hypothesis that hydrodynamic conditions have evolved since 1969 to increase the lake’s resistance to mixing. The date of maximum mixing in winter has become progressively earlier in the year. Lake density stratification, defined using the stability index, is commencing earlier in the year and extending a month longer than in the early years of the monitoring program. Hypothesis 4 stated that the trend of decreasing summer clarity is a result of earlier, prolonged, and more intense stratification. Statistically significant correlations were found between summer clarity and (1) date of onset of stratification, (2) duration of stratification, and (3) buoyancy frequency. Hypothesis 5 stated that ecological (food web) interactions are causing changes in the trends of seasonal or annual clarity; data supporting hypothesis 5 were limited to examples from other systems and to intermittent monitoring of Lake Tahoe and Emerald Bay. The resulting narrative assessment was motivated by a 6-year study of Mysis shrimp disappearance and return in Emerald Bay. The available data and a large body of published literature are consistent with the inference that Mysis shrimp-induced food web changes are causing changes in the trends of seasonal or annual clarity. This food-web study focused on the relations between introduced Mysis shrimp, the native cladocerans ( Daphnia and Bosmina ) that were largely eliminated following Mysis introduction, and the effect on fine particles within the lake. The records of Mysis and other zooplankton data for Lake Tahoe are episodic and have large gaps. Consequently, statistical analyses could not be conducted to compare zooplankton data with other variables. The long-term record, however, indicates that the key effect was a change to the phytoplankton assemblage, where larger diatoms disappeared, likely due to Mysis grazing, only to be replaced by Cyclotella that are an order-of-magnitude smaller and have increased the abundance and volumetric density of total fine particles in suspension (biotic and abiotic).

California

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report

Biocrusts in the context of global change

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Book chapter

Biodiversity connections—‘ties that bind’

Connectivity is a foundational concept in ecology and conservation and was the organising theme for the 2022 Annual Meeting of the Southeastern Fishes Council, a professional organisation dedicated to the study and conservation of freshwater fishes native to the southeast region of the United States (US). We introduce a Special Contribution of six papers selected from presentations at that meeting that illustrate perspectives on connections created by fish migration and dispersal, evolved life histories and habitat affinities and interspecific facilitation. Although focused on streams of the southeast US, each of these topics is broadly relevant to freshwater fish conservation, particularly with respect to causes and consequences of migratory fish depletion, population fragmentation and species declines. Many other connections relevant to the ecology and conservation of freshwater fishes remain relatively unexplored but could substantively advance conservation. We highlight the potential that species evolutionary histories, that is connections through time, reconstructed using species distributions and phylogenies may improve predictions of species responses to environmental change. Identifying species interdependencies, including undiscovered interactions that support survival or reproduction, could provide insights into how species losses may cascade as aquatic communities unravel. Finally, efforts to elucidate diverse connections between people and freshwater biodiversity, particularly where fisheries are historic and streams mostly go unnoticed, may prove essential to building public support for conservation measures. A research agenda anchored on ‘biodiversity connections’ has the potential to advance ecological understanding and public engagement, elements essential to conserving freshwater fishes.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish

Impacts to ecosystem services from aquatic acidification: Using FEGS-CS to understand the impacts of air pollution

Increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have resulted in increases in the associated atmospheric deposition of acidic compounds. In sensitive watersheds, this deposition has initiated a cascade of negative environmental effects on aquatic ecosystems, resulting in a degradation or loss of valuable ecosystem goods and services. Here, we report the activities of an expert workgroup to synthesize information on acidic deposition-induced aquatic acidification from the published literature and to link critical load exceedances with ecosystem services and beneficiaries, using the Stressor–Ecological Production function–Final Ecosystem Services (STEPS) Framework and the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System (FEGS-CS). Experts identified and documented the sensitive aquatic ecosystem ecological endpoints valued by humans, and the environmental pathways through which these endpoints may experience degradation in response to acidification. Beneficiary groups were then identified for each sensitive ecological endpoint to clarify relationships between humans and the effects of aquatic acidification, and to lay the foundation for future research and analysis to value these FEGS.

Ecosphere