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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

The Upper Pennsylvanian Pittsburgh coal bed: Resources and mine models

The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a digital coal resource assessment model of the Upper Pennsylvanian Pittsburgh coal bed, which indicates that after subtracting mined-out coal, 16 billion short tons (14 billion tonnes) remain of the original 34 billion short tons (31 billion tonnes) of coal. When technical, environmental, and social restrictions are applied to the remaining Pittsburgh coal model, only 12 billion short tons (11 billion tonnes) are available for mining. Our assessment models estimate that up to 0.61 billion short tons (0.55 billion tonnes), 2.7 billion short tons (2.4 billion tonnes), and 8.5 billion short tons (7.7 billion tonnes) could be available for surface mining, continuous mining, and longwall mining, respectively. This analysis is an example of a second-generation regional coal availability study designed to model recoverability characteristics for all the major coal beds in the United States.

Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia

Prediction of episodic acidification in North-eastern USA: An empirical/mechanistic approach

Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the North-eastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variable. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess 'chemically new' and 'chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.Observations from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Episodic Response Project (ERP) in the Northeastern United States are used to develop an empirical/mechanistic scheme for prediction of the minimum values of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) during episodes. An acidification episode is defined as a hydrological event during which ANC decreases. The pre-episode ANC is used to index the antecedent condition, and the stream flow increase reflects how much the relative contributions of sources of waters change during the episode. As much as 92% of the total variation in the minimum ANC in individual catchments can be explained (with levels of explanation >70% for nine of the 13 streams) by a multiple linear regression model that includes pre-episode ANC and change in discharge as independent variables. The predictive scheme is demonstrated to be regionally robust, with the regional variance explained ranging from 77 to 83%. The scheme is not successful for each ERP stream, and reasons are suggested for the individual failures. The potential for applying the predictive scheme to other watersheds is demonstrated by testing the model with data from the Panola Mountain Research Watershed in the South-eastern United States, where the variance explained by the model was 74%. The model can also be utilized to assess `chemically new' and `chemically old' water sources during acidification episodes.

Hydrological Processes

Quantifying spatial scaling patterns and their local and regional correlates in headwater streams: Implications for resilience

The distribution of functional traits within and across spatiotemporal scales has been used to quantify and infer the relative resilience across ecosystems. We use explicit spatial modeling to evaluate within- and cross-scale redundancy in headwater streams, an ecosystem type with a hierarchical and dendritic network structure. We assessed the cross-scale distribution of functional feeding groups of benthic invertebrates in Swedish headwater streams during two seasons. We evaluated functional metrics, i.e., Shannon diversity, richness, and evenness, and the degree of redundancy within and across modeled spatial scales for individual feeding groups. We also estimated the correlates of environmental versus spatial factors of both functional composition and the taxonomic composition of functional groups for each spatial scale identified. Measures of functional diversity and within-scale redundancy of functions were similar during both seasons, but both within- and cross-scale redundancy were low. This apparent low redundancy was partly attributable to a few dominant taxa explaining the spatial models. However, rare taxa with stochastic spatial distributions might provide additional information and should therefore be considered explicitly for complementing future resilience assessments. Otherwise, resilience may be underestimated. Finally, both environmental and spatial factors correlated with the scale-specific functional and taxonomic composition. This finding suggests that resilience in stream networks emerges as a function of not only local conditions but also regional factors such as habitat connectivity and invertebrate dispersal.

Krycklan River

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.

Ecosystems

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Great Plains

A model‐data intercomparison of CO2 exchange across North America: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

Our current understanding of terrestrial carbon processes is represented in various models used to integrate and scale measurements of CO 2 exchange from remote sensing and other spatiotemporal data. Yet assessments are rarely conducted to determine how well models simulate carbon processes across vegetation types and environmental conditions. Using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program we compare observed and simulated monthly CO 2 exchange from 44 eddy covariance flux towers in North America and 22 terrestrial biosphere models. The analysis period spans ∼220 site‐years, 10 biomes, and includes two large‐scale drought events, providing a natural experiment to evaluate model skill as a function of drought and seasonality. We evaluate models' ability to simulate the seasonal cycle of CO 2 exchange using multiple model skill metrics and analyze links between model characteristics, site history, and model skill. Overall model performance was poor; the difference between observations and simulations was ∼10 times observational uncertainty, with forested ecosystems better predicted than nonforested. Model‐data agreement was highest in summer and in temperate evergreen forests. In contrast, model performance declined in spring and fall, especially in ecosystems with large deciduous components, and in dry periods during the growing season. Models used across multiple biomes and sites, the mean model ensemble, and a model using assimilated parameter values showed high consistency with observations. Models with the highest skill across all biomes all used prescribed canopy phenology, calculated NEE as the difference between GPP and ecosystem respiration, and did not use a daily time step.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

New Hampshire

Baseline ecological risk assessment of the Calcasieu Estuary, Louisiana: 1. Overview and problem formulation

A remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) of the Calcasieu Estuary cooperative site was initiated in 1998. This site, which is located in the southwestern portion of Louisiana in the vicinity of Lake Charles, includes the portion of the estuary from the saltwater barrier on the Calcasieu River to Moss Lake. As part of the RI/FS, a baseline ecological risk assessment (BERA) was conducted to assess the risks to aquatic organisms and aquatic-dependent wildlife exposed to environmental contaminants. The purpose of the BERA was to determine if adverse effects on ecological receptors are occurring in the estuary; to evaluate the nature, severity, and areal extent of any such effects; and to identify the substances that are causing or substantially contributing to effects on ecological receptors. This article describes the environmental setting and site history, identifies the chemicals of potential concern, presents the exposure scenarios and conceptual model for the site, and summarizes the assessment and measurement endpoints that were used in the investigation. Two additional articles in this series describe the results of an evaluation of effects-based sediment-quality guidelines as well as an assessment of risks to benthic invertebrates associated with exposure to contaminated sediment.

Louisiana

A New Occurrence Model for National Assessment of Undiscovered Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Deposits

Volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits are very significant current and historical resources of Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag, are active exploration targets in several areas of the United States and potentially have significant environmental effects. This new USGS VMS deposit model provides a comprehensive review of deposit occurrence and ore genesis, and fully integrates recent advances in the understanding of active seafloor VMS-forming environments, and integrates consideration of geoenvironmental consequences of mining VMS deposits. Because VMS deposits exhibit a broad range of geological and geochemical characteristics, a suitable classification system is required to incorporate these variations into the mineral deposit model. We classify VMS deposits based on compositional variations in volcanic and sedimentary host rocks. The advantage of the classification method is that it provides a closer linkage between tectonic setting and lithostratigraphic assemblages, and an increased predictive capability during field-based studies.

Open-File Report

What mediates tree mortality during drought in the southern Sierra Nevada?

Severe drought has the potential to cause selective mortality within a forest, thereby inducing shifts in forest species composition. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains of California have experienced extensive forest dieback due to drought stress and insect outbreak. We used high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to estimate the effect of forest dieback on species composition in response to drought stress in Sequoia National Park. Our aims were: (1) to quantify site-specific conditions that mediate tree mortality along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains; (2) to assess where mortality events have a greater probability of occurring; and (3) to estimate which tree species have a greater likelihood of mortality along the elevation gradient. A series of statistical models were generated to classify species composition and identify tree mortality, and the influences of different environmental factors were spatially quantified and analyzed to assess where mortality events have a greater likelihood of occurring. A higher probability of mortality was observed in the lower portion of the elevation gradient, on southwest and west-facing slopes, in areas with shallow soils, on shallower slopes, and at greater distances from water. All of these factors are related to site water balance throughout the landscape. Our results also suggest that mortality is species-specific along the elevation gradient, mainly affecting Pinus ponderosa and Pinus lambertiana at lower elevations. Selective mortality within the forest may drive long-term shifts in community composition along the elevation gradient.

Sierra Nevada

Chapter 11: Management considerations

We conducted an ecoregional assessment of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) ecosystems in the Wyoming Basins and surrounding regions (WBEA) to determine broad-scale species-environmental relationships. Our goal was to assess the potential influence from threats to the sagebrush ecosystem on associated wildlife through the use of spatially explicit occurrence and abundance models. These models were developed using information from field surveys conducted along gradients of vegetation productivity and human disturbance integrated with spatial datasets delineating land cover, topography, and human land use in the WBEA area. Our evaluation included all sagebrush-associated wildlife species across multiple taxa whose habitat requirements and distributions were appropriate for modeling and interpretation at the broad scales of this assessment. Dominant land uses were included in delineating the human footprint. Although overall levels of the cumulative human footprint were generally low across the WBEA area, oil and gas activities have decreased the amount of shrubland habitats and increased fragmentation within development regions over the last century. At the scale of this assessment, the influence of humans was primarily expressed as an indirect function through actions that altered or reduced available habitat. We identified 65 plant species of conservation concern; 28 of 40 vertebrate species associated with sagebrush were species of concern in at least one state. We modeled environmental relationships for 15 wildlife species from data collected from surveys conducted in 2005 and 2006 designed to sample multiple species and taxa along land cover and land use gradients across the WBEA area. Occurrence of 3 species was negatively influenced by human features; anthropogenic features were a positive influence for 3 species, 8 had a mixed response, and 1 had no measurable relationship. Sagebrush land cover, considered in all wildlife models, was important to most species but differed among species in the proportion of sagebrush required and at what spatial extent. For most species examined, the spatial extent at which sagebrush cover influenced the probability of occupancy was much larger than an individual’s home range size. Exotic plants were strongly associated with human features, particularly roads, which may function as linear vectors to facilitate spread of exotic plants across the WBEA area. We used coarse-grained spatial and thematic data because of the large spatial extent (350,000 km 2 ) of the WBEA area and the need for a consistent land cover map for the region. Distributions of species occurrence or abundance mapped in this assessment need to be corroborated with information on population demographics. In addition, our results should be interpreted relative to assumptions inherent in broad-scale ecoregional assessments. Our assessment provides managers with extensive and detailed maps of occurrence and abundance, allowing for status assessments of native species, diversity and richness, natural communities, and ecological systems present within the Wyoming Basins.

Wyoming

Environmental fate model for ultra-low-volume insecticide applications used for adult mosquito management

One of the more effective ways of managing high densities of adult mosquitoes that vector human and animal pathogens is ultra-low-volume (ULV) aerosol applications of insecticides. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses models that are not validated for ULV insecticide applications and exposure assumptions to perform their human and ecological risk assessments. Currently, there is no validated model that can accurately predict deposition of insecticides applied using ULV technology for adult mosquito management. In addition, little is known about the deposition and drift of small droplets like those used under conditions encountered during ULV applications. The objective of this study was to perform field studies to measure environmental concentrations of insecticides and to develop a validated model to predict the deposition of ULV insecticides. The final regression model was selected by minimizing the Bayesian Information Criterion and its prediction performance was evaluated using k -fold cross validation. Density of the formulation and the density and CMD interaction coefficients were the largest in the model. The results showed that as density of the formulation decreases, deposition increases. The interaction of density and CMD showed that higher density formulations and larger droplets resulted in greater deposition. These results are supported by the aerosol physics literature. A k -fold cross validation demonstrated that the mean square error of the selected regression model is not biased, and the mean square error and mean square prediction error indicated good predictive ability.

Science of the Total Environment

Computer modelling for ecosystem service assessment

Computer models are simplified representations of the environment that allow biophysical, ecological, and/or socio-economic characteristics to be quantified and explored. Modelling approaches differ from mapping approaches (Chapter 5) as (i) they are not forcibly spatial (although many models do produce spatial outputs); (ii) they focus on understanding and quantifying the interactions between different components of social and/or environmental systems and (iii) by changing parameters within models, they are capable of exploring both alternative scenarios and internal model dynamics. When applied to the assessment of ecosystem services (ES), models are important tools which can quantify the relationships that underpin ES supply, demand and flows and, in some cases, produce maps representing these factors. Furthermore, as models can explore scenarios, trade-offs that result from different scenarios can be assessed. This chapter provides a broad overview of different types of models that have been applied to ES assessments and discusses, with examples, the ways that these models have the potential to be used in practice. In the context of ES, there are a number of ways of distinguishing between different types of models. Here, we distinguish between individual models focussing on single ES and modelling frameworks that can assess multiple ES within the framework of a single modelling tool.

Book chapter

Abiotic raw-materials in life cycle impact assessments: An emerging consensus across disciplines

This paper captures some of the emerging consensus points that came out of the workshop “Mineral Resources in Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Mapping the path forward”, held at the Natural History Museum London on 14 October 2015: that current practices rely in many instances on obsolete data, often confuse resource depletion with impacts on resource availability, which can therefore provide inconsistent decision support and lead to misguided claims about environmental performance. Participants agreed it would be helpful to clarify which models estimate depletion and which estimate availability, so that results can be correctly reported in the most appropriate framework. Most participants suggested that resource availability will be more meaningfully addressed within a comprehensive Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment framework rather than limited to an environmental Life Cycle Assessment or Footprint. Presentations from each of the authors are available for download.

Resources

A new method for bioassessment of ecosystems with complex communities and environmental gradients

Bioassessment of complex and heterogeneous ecosystems is a challenge when there are multiple, strong, natural environmental gradients; unknown, or spatially varying, mixtures of stressors; and large numbers of taxa with unknown responses to both the environmental gradients and the stressors. Current methods of bioassessment are not designed for use under this set of constraints. To address this gap, we have developed an assessment method appropriate for well-sampled, heterogeneous systems with many taxa. In the bioassessment described below, we model taxa occurrence as a function of natural environmental gradients, then use residual covariance patterns between all pairs of taxa to estimate the impact of human disturbance across sites as a latent construct. The derivation of the method from an underlying causal model allows the metric value at each site and the associated taxa responses to be partitioned into contributions from a set of putative stressors. We apply this method as a case study to the subtidal benthic invertebrate community of Puget Sound, WA (USA) and demonstrate a partial decomposition of the metric values to a set of stressors including sediment organic carbon, nitrogen, metals, and organic pollutants. While this method provides new opportunities to estimate, communicate, and understand the ecological condition of complex, heterogeneous ecosystems, due to the requirement for broad, detailed data to inform its estimates, it will likely be most appropriate for monitoring programs.

Washington

The emerging contaminant 3,3’-dichlorobiphenyl (PCB-11) impedes Ahr activation and Cyp1a activity to modify embryotoxicity of Ahr ligands in the zebrafish embryo model (Danio rerio)

Background: 3,3’-Dichlorobiphenyl (PCB-11) is a non-legacy PCB congener widely detected in environmental samples and has been detected in human serum, but its toxicity potential is poorly understood. Objectives: We measured PCB-11 in wild caught fish and assessed its embryotoxicity and interactions with the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (Ahr) pathway in developing zebrafish (Danio rerio). Methods: PCB-11 was measured in wild freshwater fish from a river in Western Massachusetts. In the laboratory, zebrafish embryos were exposed to 45 µg/L, 450 µg/L, or 4,500 µg/L PCB-11 from 24-96 hours post fertilization (hpf), when they were assessed for gross morphology and Cyp1a activity using the in vivo EROD bioassay. Ahr pathway interactions were probed by co-exposing zebrafish to the Ahr agonists PCB-126 and the model PAH beta-naphthoflavone (BNF). Liver development was assessed using the Tg(gut:GFP) zebrafish line. Zebrafish exposed to 4,500 µg/L PCB-11 were also collected at 96 hpf for qRT-PCR, RNAseq, and histology. Results: Environmental concentrations of PCB-11 ranged from 103.0-136.0 ng/kg wet weight in wild fish tissue. Exposure to PCB-11 alone mildly affected EROD activity but did not affect gross morphology. However, 4,500 µg/L PCB-11 alone altered the expression of xenobiotic metabolism and liver development genes, impeded liver development, and increased vacuole formation in histology sections. In co-exposures, 4,500 µg/L PCB-11 prevented deformities caused by PCB-126 but exacerbated deformities in co-exposures with BNF. Discussion: PCB-11 is present in wild fish caught near a paper recycling facility in Western Massachusetts. Higher concentrations that may be present elsewhere such as the 4,500 µg/L PCB-11 concentration tested in zebrafish, can affect liver development, act as both a partial agonist/antagonist of the Ahr pathway, and act as an antagonist of Cyp1a activity to modify the toxicity of compounds that interact with the Ahr pathway.

Environmental Pollution

Benthic nutrient sources to hypereutrophic Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, USA

Three collecting trips were coordinated in April, May, and August 2006 to sample the water column and benthos of hypereutrophic Upper Klamath Lake (OR, USA) through the annual cyanophyte bloom of Aphanizomenon flos‐aquae . A pore‐water profiler was designed and fabricated to obtain the first high‐resolution (centimeter‐scale) estimates of the vertical concentration gradients of macro‐ and micronutrients for diffusive‐flux determinations. A consistently positive benthic flux for soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) was observed with solute release from the sediment, ranging between 0.4 and 6.1 mg/m 2 /d. The mass flux over an approximate 200‐km 2 lake area was comparable in magnitude to riverine inputs. An additional concern related to fish toxicity was identified when dissolved ammonium also displayed consistently positive benthic fluxes of 4 to 134 mg/m 2 /d, again comparable to riverine inputs. Although phosphorus was a logical initial choice by water quality managers for the limiting nutrient when nitrogen‐fixing cyanophytes dominate, initial trace‐element results from the lake and major inflowing tributaries suggested that the role of iron limitation on primary productivity should be investigated. Dissolved iron became depleted in the lake water column during the course of the algal bloom, while dissolved ammonium and SRP increased. Elevated macroinvertebrate densities, at least of the order of 10 4 individuals/m 2 , suggested that the diffusive‐flux estimates may be significantly enhanced by bioturbation. In addition, heat‐flux modeling indicated that groundwater advection of nutrients could also significantly contribute to internal nutrient loading. Accurate environmental assessments of lentic systems and reasonable expectations for point‐source management require quantitative consideration of internal solute sources.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Sicklefin Chub (Macrhybopsis meeki) and Sturgeon Chub (M. gelida) temporal and spatial patterns from extant population monitoring and habitat data spanning 23 Years

Sicklefin ( Macrhybopsis meeki ) and sturgeon chub ( M. gelida ) historically occurred throughout the Missouri River (MR), in some tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of the MR. They have been species of U.S. state-level conservation concern and U.S. Endangered Species Act listing candidates since the 1990s. We applied analytical approaches from occupancy modeling to correlation to monitoring data spanning 23 years to assess relationships between occupancy and time, space, environmental factors, habitat, and other species. Sicklefin chub occupancy appeared higher in the early to mid-2000s and mid-to-late 2010s. A potential decline in occupancy occurred for sturgeon chub in the mid-to-late 2010s. Spatially, chub occupancy was depressed for 159 to 438 km downstream of MR dams. Among macrohabitats, inside bends had relatively high occupancy for both species; secondary connected channels had relatively high values for sturgeon chub. Co-occurrence was likely between sicklefin and sturgeon chub and between chubs and shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhybchus platorybchus ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ). The observed co-occurrence of chubs and pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ; PS) was potentially higher than expected for adult PS. For juvenile PS, co-occurrence was lower than expected in the Lower MR and potentially higher than expected in the Upper MR, warranting future research. Results from this research suggest management for the improvement of sicklefin and sturgeon chub populations may benefit other MR fish populations.

Fishes