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Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming: A summary

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Colorado, Wyoming

Sustainability in a materials world

Many adverse impacts on the environment can be directly related to the materials dispersed to the environment during processing or use, or after use as refuse and waste. Some materials, such as toxic wastes, are a major concern because they create immediate problems with longer-term effects. Gases released by major manufacturing industries can contribute to long-term regional and global problems such as acid rain or increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The use of other materials, however, appears to be more benign or strictly localized in their impacts. If the current per capita level of material consumption in the United States was achieved worldwide, it would create major stresses on both resource adequacy and the environment. In fact, stresses have been created and will continue from this consumption style (developed countries) even if others don't achieve them.

Natural Resources Research

Lineament analysis of mineral areas of interest in Afghanistan

During a preliminary mineral resource assessment of Afghanistan (Peters and others, 2007), 24 mineralized areas of interest (AOIs) were highlighted as the focus for future economic development throughout various parts of the country. In addition to located mineral resources of value, development of a viable mining industry in Afghanistan will require the location of suitable groundwater resources for drinking, processing of mineral ores for use or for export, and for agriculture and food production in areas surrounding and supporting future mining enterprises. This report and accompanying GIS datasets describe the results of both automated and manual mapping of lineaments throughout the 24 mineral occurrence AOIs described in detail by Peters and others (2007; 2011). For this study, we define lineaments as "mappable linear or curvilinear features of a surface whose parts align in a straight or slightly curving relationship that may be the expression of a fault or other linear zones of weakness" as derived from remote sensing sources such as optical imagery, radar imagery or digital elevation models (DEMs) (Sabins, 2007). Water wells in bedrock aquifers are generally more productive where boreholes intersect fractures or fracture zones. Lineament identification and analysis have long been used as a reconnaissance tool to identify such favorable conditions for groundwater resources in carbonate bedrock environments (Lattman and Parizek, 1964; Siddiqui and Parizek, 1971). More recently, lineament analysis has been used to identify areas of greater well yields in other bedrock settings, such as crystalline bedrock (Mabee and other, 1994; Moore and others, 2002). Lineaments provide an indication of bedrock areas that warrant further investigation for optimal water well placement. They may also indicate areas of preferential flow and storage of groundwater, and, thus, areas with a greater density of lineaments may indicate greater secondary porosity. Lineaments may indicate structurally trending mineralized areas (for example, Mars and Rowan, 2007), or locations of near-surface water resources, especially when surface vegetation growth coincides with lineaments. The purpose of this report and accompanying GIS data is to provide lineament maps that give one indication of areas that warrant further investigation for optimal bedrock water-well placement within 24 target areas for mineral resources (Peters and others, 2011). These data may also support the identification of faults related to modern seismic hazards (for example, Wheeler and others, 2005; Ruleman and others, 2007), as well as support studies attempting to understand the relationship between tectonic and structural controls on hydrothermal fluid flow, subsequent mineralization, and water-quality issues near mined and unmined mineral deposits (for example, Eppinger and others, 2007).

Open-File Report

Climate change and the Rocky Mountains

Rural landscapes in the Andes are characterized by an impressive diversity of natural environments and by multiple resource assets. This is particularly the case in the tropical realm where the ecological altitudinal zones of the tierra caliente, the tierra templada, the tierra fria and the tierra helada offer a remarkable range of agricultural potential. This is complemented by a multitude of topographic, hydrographic and climatic niches. The landscape is further overlaid by a cultural mosaic and by the recent impact of political ecology parameters. These agricultural ‘archipelagos’ and ‘overlapping patchworks’ (Zimmerer 1999) of human utilization also represent fragile and potentially vulnerable regions exposed to environmental risks and to socioeconomic or political threats. The external natural and human stimulators or stressors affecting the environment and people are complemented by new challenges and changes within the rural societies. Thus, farming and human settlement in the Andes have millennia tradition of an ‘open’ rural system, constantly adapting to an array of changing environmental, political, cultural, social and economic conditions (Stadel 2003b, Stadel 2008).

Rocky Mountains

Rare earths: Market disruption, innovation, and global supply chains

Rare earths, sometimes called the vitamins of modern materials, captured public attention when their prices increased more than ten-fold in 2010 and 2011. As prices fell between 2011 and 2016, rare earths receded from public view—but less visibly they became a major focus of innovative activity in companies, government laboratories and universities. Geoscientists worked to better understand the resource base and improve our knowledge about mineral deposits that will be mines in the future. Process engineers carried out research that is making primary production and recycling more efficient. Materials scientists and engineers searched for substitutes that will require fewer or no rare earths while providing properties comparable or superior to those of existing materials. As a result, even though global supply chains are not significantly different now than they were before the market disruption, the innovative activity motivated by the disruption likely will have far-reaching, if unpredictable, consequences for supply chains of rare earths in the future.

Environment and Resources

The Pajarito Plateau: A bibliography

This bibliography is the result of two initially independent projects. As the consulting archaeologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Charlie R. Steen collected entries at the suggestion of the staff of the Environmental Surveillance Group of the Health, Safety, and Environmental Division, HSE-8. The primary purpose was to aid the staff in evaluating cultural resources on LANL lands. In addition to works that related to the archaeology and history of the area, Steen included notations of a few books and articles in other fields such as geology and natural history. It was hoped that they also would be of value to other organizations and to students of past human activities on the Pajarito Plateau. At the same time, the National Park Service (NPS) was planning a major survey of Bandelier National Monument (BNM). As part of this plan, the author was asked to prepare a background document that described research previously carried out in the area, including an annotated bibliography. Although the survey would be limited to the park boundaries, the larger Pajarito Plateau is a more logical study area from physiographic, environmental, and cultural perspectives; hence the focus was on this larger region. Mathien (1986) also included some references to natural resources studies, particularly those initiated by NPS within Bandelier National Monument. Both bibliographies were made available to Colleen Olinger and Beverly Larson of the Health and Environmental Services Group at Los Alamos. They realized that while neither was complete, each included entries missing from the other. Larson suggested the two bibliographies be combined. (At this time, Craig Allen was studying the landscape of the Jemez Mountains [Allen 1984c, 1989]. His investigations included much detailed information on natural resource studies and were added in 1991 and 1992.) To limit the scope of their work, Steen and Mathien had chosen their parameter: the Pajarito Plateau. Geographically, the Pajarito Plateau is described as the high tableland that lies between the Jemez Mountains on the west and the Rio Grande on the east. From north to south, it extends from the Chama Valley to La Cañada de Cochiti (Hewett 1906:14)(Figure 1). Because human activity rarely stops at such definite boundaries, major ethnographic studies of Tewa (San Ildefonso and Santa Clara) and Keres (Cochiti) linguistic groups are included. (Even though most of the historic pueblos occupied by the Tewa and Keres are not located on the Pajarito Plateau, oral traditions and archaeological data suggest that these groups once occupied sites on the plateau.) Towa studies are not included because Steen believed Towa ancestors were not involved in major cultural developments of the Pajarito Plateau. In addition, a bibliography of the Jemez area (home of Towa people) has been prepared by Michael Elliott (1982) and included with his nomination of large Pueblo sites near Jemez Springs to the National Register of Historic Places that is on file at the Museum of New Mexico, Laboratory of Anthropology, in Santa Fe. Both Steen and Mathien included references to geographically and historically related material that does not focus on the Pajarito Plateau but, nonetheless, is important to understanding the area's archaeology and physical environment, for example, lithic resources available from Cerro Pedernal or in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

New Mexico

Ecosystem services from transborder migratory species: Implications for conservation governance

This article discusses the conservation challenges of volant migratory transborder species and conservation governance primarily in North America. Many migratory species provide ecosystem service benefits to society. For example, insectivorous bats prey on crop pests and reduce the need for pesticides; birds and insects pollinate food plants; and birds afford recreational opportunities to hunters and birdwatchers. Migration is driven by the seasonal availability of resources; as resources in one area become seasonally scarce, individuals move to locations where resources have become seasonally abundant. The separation of the annual lifecycle means that species management and governance is often fractured across international borders. Because migratory species depend on habitat in different locations, their ability to provide ecosystem services in one area depends on the spatial subsidies, or support, provided by habitat and ecological processes in other areas. This creates telecouplings, or interconnections across geographic space, of areas such that impacts to the habitat of a migratory species in one location will affect the benefits enjoyed by people in other locations. Information about telecoupling and spatial subsidies can be used to craft new governance arrangements such as Payment for Ecosystem Services programs that target specific stakeholder groups and locations. We illustrate these challenges and opportunities with three North American case studies: the Duck Stamp Program, Mexican free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana ), and monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ).

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Variation in species composition, size and fitness of two multi-species sea turtle assemblages using different neritic habitats

The neritic environment is rich in resources and as such plays a crucial role as foraging habitat for multi-species marine assemblages, including sea turtles. However, this habitat also experiences a wide array of anthropogenic threats. To prioritize conservation funds, targeting areas that support multi-species assemblages is ideal. This is particularly important in the Gulf of Mexico where restoration actions are currently ongoing following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. To better understand these areas in the Gulf of Mexico, we characterized two multi-species aggregations of sea turtles captured in different neritic habitats. We described species composition and size classes of turtles, and calculated body condition index for 642 individuals of three species captured from 2011 to 2019: 13.6% loggerheads (Caretta caretta), 44.9% Kemp’s ridleys (Lepidochelys kempii) and 41.4% green turtles (Chelonia mydas). Species composition differed between the two sites with more loggerheads captured in seagrass and a greater proportion of green turtles captured in sand bottom. Turtles in sand bottom were smaller and weighed less than those captured in seagrass. Although small and large turtles were captured at both sites, the proportions differed between sites. Body condition index of green turtles was lower in sand habitat than seagrass habitat; there was no difference for Kemp’s ridleys or loggerheads. In general, smaller green turtles had a higher body condition index than larger green turtles. We have identified another habitat type used by juvenile sea turtle species in the northern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, we highlight the importance of habitat selection by immature turtles recruiting from the oceanic to the neritic environment, particularly for green turtles.

Florida

Evaluation of development options for Alaska North Slope viscous and heavy oil

Current estimates of discovered viscous and heavy oil in Alaska’s North Slope are 12 billion barrels of oil-in-place and 12–18 billion barrels of oil-in-place, respectively (see Appendix 1 for conversion to SI units). Since the early 1990s to the end of 2010, cumulative viscous oil production has amounted to 150 million barrels, and there has been no commercial production of heavy oil. During the last three decades, the industry has been challenged to develop technologies to commercially produce these untapped oil resources in this Arctic environment. In this paper, the general locations and geologic properties of the viscous oil-bearing West Sak/Schrader Bluff and heavy oil-bearing Ugnu stratigraphic intervals are described first. The geologic variability within these deposits and the evolution of technology have forced an incremental development approach, requiring costly field testing at the pilot scale of innovative extraction techniques. Although viscous oil is currently produced, its development is not mature, and firms appear to be still spending large sums on new approaches to improve recovery. The analysis specifies a representative viscous oil project and then applies a “real options” framework using simulation to determine whether the risked expected project value is sufficient to fund required expenditures on extraction process research and field testing. Computations show available field test funds to be highly sensitive to the operator’s hurdle rate of return as well as the range in magnitude of potential State revenues. The contribution of the paper is solving this problem using an approach where the extreme low return and high scenarios need only be specified, and where the uncertainties are modeled with beta distributions based on historical data or expert opinion.

Alaska

Neonatal antipredator tactics shape female movement patterns in large herbivores

Caring for newborn offspring hampers resource acquisition of mammalian females, curbing their ability to meet the high energy expenditure of early lactation. Newborns are particularly vulnerable, and large herbivores have evolved a continuum of neonatal anti-predator tactics, ranging from immobile hider to highly mobile follower offspring. How these tactics constrain female movements around parturition is unknown, particularly within the current context of increasing habitat fragmentation and earlier plant phenology caused by global warming. Using a analysis across 54 populations of 23 species of large herbivores, we show that mothers adjust their movements to variation in resource productivity and heterogeneity according to their offspring’s neonatal tactic. Mothers with hider offspring are unable to exploit environments where the variability of resources occurs at a broad scale, which might alter resource allocation compared to mothers with follower offspring. Our findings reveal that the overlooked neonatal tactic plays a key role for predicting how species are coping with environmental variation.

Nature Ecology & Evolution

Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

Context Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. Objectives We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats. Methods We compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling. Results Blackpoll warbler ( Setophaga striata ), wood thrush ( Hylocichla mustelina ), and Louisiana ( Parkesia motacilla ) and northern waterthrush ( P. noveboracensis ) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird ( Seiurus aurocapilla ), blackburnian ( Setophaga fusca ) and cerulean warbler ( Setophaga cerulea )], as all were positively related to occupancy data. Conclusions LC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

Landscape Ecology

Limited hydrologic response to Pleistocene climate change in deep vadose zones - Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Understanding the movement of water through thick vadose zones, especially on time scales encompassing long-term climate change, is increasingly important as societies utilize semi-arid environments for both water resources and sites viewed as favorable for long-term disposal or storage of hazardous waste. Hydrologic responses to Pleistocene climate change within a deep vadose zone in the eastern Mojave Desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were evaluated by uranium-series dating of finely layered hyalitic opal using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Opal is present within cm-thick secondary hydrogenic mineral crusts coating floors of lithophysal cavities in fractured volcanic rocks at depths of 200 to 300 m below land surface. Uranium concentrations in opal fluctuate systematically between 5 and 550 μg/g. Age-calibrated profiles of uranium concentration correlate with regional climate records over the last 300,000 years and produce time-series spectral peaks that have distinct periodicities of 100- and 41-ka, consistent with planetary orbital parameters. These results indicate that the chemical compositions of percolating solutions varied in response to near-surface, climate-driven processes. However, slow (micrometers per thousand years), relatively uniform growth rates of secondary opal and calcite deposition spanning several glacial–interglacial climate cycles imply that water fluxes in the deep vadose zone remained low and generally buffered from the large fluctuations in available surface moisture during different climates.

Nevada

Accuracy of shoreline forecasting using sparse data

Sandy beaches are important resources providing recreation, tourism, habitat, and coastal protection. They evolve over various time scales due to local winds, waves, storms, and changes in sea level. A common method used to monitor change in sandy beaches is to measure the movement of the shoreline over time. Typically, the rate of change is estimated by fitting a linear regression through a time series of shoreline positions. To best manage the valuable resources within a coastal environment, accurate forecasts of shoreline position are needed. A simple way to estimate future shoreline position is to extrapolate a linear regression into the future, this method is often used to establish management guidelines like construction setback lines. A more recently developed shoreline forecasting technique utilizes the Kalman filter to assimilate shoreline data and modify the linear regression. This paper calculates the uncertainty and accuracy of both the extrapolated linear regression and Kalman filter forecasting methods for 10- and 20-year hindcasts using data collected at five diverse study areas. These data are inherently sparse (8–10 measurements per location, collected over 150 years) and are representative of the observed historical data available for the continental United States for this timeframe. Both methods produced similar results and had regionally averaged forecast accuracies of 5–16 m. We determined that the inaccuracy of the forecasts is largely due to the effects of shorter time scale variability. This variability is roughly proportional to the standard error of the linear regression, which is a useful measure of forecast uncertainty.

Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

The state of the world’s mangrove forests: Past, present, and future

Intertidal mangrove forests are a dynamic ecosystem experiencing rapid changes in extent and habitat quality over geological history, today and into the future. Climate and sea level have drastically altered mangrove distribution since their appearance in the geological record ∼75 million years ago (Mya), through to the Holocene. In contrast, contemporary mangrove dynamics are driven primarily by anthropogenic threats, including pollution, overextraction, and conversion to aquaculture and agriculture. Deforestation rates have declined in the past decade, but the future of mangroves is uncertain; new deforestation frontiers are opening, particularly in Southeast Asia and West Africa, despite international conservation policies and ambitious global targets for rehabilitation. In addition, geological and climatic processes such as sea-level rise that were important over geological history will continue to influence global mangrove distribution in the future. Recommendations are given to reframe mangrove conservation, with a view to improving the state of mangroves in the future.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Transformative environmental governance

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Methods for quantifying interactions between groundwater and surface water

Driven by the need for integrated management of groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW), quantification of GW–SW interactions and associated contaminant transport has become increasingly important. This is due to their substantial impact on water quantity and quality. In this review, we provide an overview of the methods developed over the past several decades to investigate GW–SW interactions. These methods include geophysical, hydrometric, and tracer techniques, as well as various modeling approaches. Different methods reveal valuable information on GW–SW interactions at different scales with their respective advantages and limitations. Interpreting data from these techniques can be challenging due to factors like scale effects, heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions, sediment variability, and complex spatiotemporal connections between GW and SW. To facilitate the selection of appropriate methods for specific sites, we discuss the strengths, weaknesses, and challenges of each technique, and we offer perspectives on knowledge gaps in the current science.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Coastal wetlands in the Anthropocene

We review the functioning and sustainability of coastal marshes and mangroves. Urbanized humans have a 7,000-year-old enduring relationship to coastal wetlands. Wetlands include marshes, salt flats, and saline and freshwater forests. Coastal wetlands occur in all climate zones but are most abundant in deltas. Mangroves are tropical, whereas marshes occur from tropical to boreal areas. Quantification of coastal wetland areas has advanced in recent years but is still insufficiently accurate. Climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to lead to significant wetland losses and other impacts on coastal wetlands and the humans associated with them. Landward migration and coastal retreat are not expected to significantly reduce coastal wetland losses. Nitrogen watershed inputs are unlikely to alter coastal marsh stability because watershed loadings are mostly significantly lower than those in fertilization studies that show decreased belowground biomass and increased decomposition of soil organic matter. Blue carbon is not expected to significantly reduce climate impacts. The high values of ecosystem goods and services of wetlands are expected to be reduced by area losses. Humans have had strong impacts on coastal wetlands in the Holocene, and these impacts are expected to increase in the Anthropocene.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources