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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Adding invasive species bio-surveillance to the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage network

The costs of invasive species in the United States alone are estimated to exceed US$100 billion per year so a critical tactic in minimizing the costs of invasive species is the development of effective, early-detection systems. To this end, we evaluated the efficacy of adding environmental (e)DNA surveillance to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage network, which consists of > 8,200 streamgages nationwide systemically visited by USGS hydrologic technicians. Incorporating strategic eDNA sample collection during routine streamgage visits could provide early detection surveillance of aquatic invasive species with minimal additional cost. For this evaluation, USGS hydrologic technicians collected monthly eDNA water samples, May – September 2018, from streamgages downstream of reservoirs in the Columbia River Basin thought to be vulnerable to invasive dreissenid mussel ( Dreissenidae spp.) establishment. We tested water samples for dreissenid mussel DNA and also for kokanee ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) DNA; the two fishes were used to assess if streamgages are adequately located to provide early-detection eDNA surveillance of taxa known to be present in upstream reservoirs. No Columbia River Basin streamgage samples met our criteria for being scored as positive for dreissenid DNA. We did detect kokanee and yellow perch DNA at all streamgages downstream of reservoirs where these species are known to occur. Field collection, laboratory analyses, and personnel time required for collection of four eDNA samples at a streamgage site cost US$500 -US$600 (net). Given these results, incorporating eDNA biosurveillance into routine streamgage visits might decrease costs associated with an invasion since early detection maximizes the potential for eradication, containment, and mitigation.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2019

Local, temporal trajectories explain population-level responses to climate change in saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea)

Population demography is typically assumed to be strongly influenced by climatic factors, particularly with succulent plants and cacti. The saguaro cactus ( Carnegiea gigantea ) is a long‐lived columnar cactus of the Sonoran Desert that experiences episodic recruitment and mortality. Previous studies have attributed long‐term changes in saguaro populations to climatic factors, including increased germination and establishment during wet periods and mortality and reduced establishment during droughts and extreme freezes. We used a 48‐yr data set of marked individuals at the Desert Laboratory in Tucson, Arizona, to test the hypothesis that local, temporal population trajectories are mediated by topographic heterogeneity that interacts with fluctuating climatic conditions. We tested the influence of local slope and aspect vs. climatic variability on a population of saguaro using >5800 marked individuals that have been measured since 1964. We examined the relationship between demography and climatic variables (drought, precipitation, and extreme temperatures) and found significant differences in growth and survival among aspects and among census periods. Saguaro population growth was higher during wet and cool periods (e.g., 1964–1970), and changes in age structures suggest that topographic differences interact with climatic fluctuations to produce unexpected demographic patterns including large recruitment events during periods of relatively unfavorable climate conditions. Our results highlight the importance of long‐term data to detect demographic responses to climate that could not be predicted from short‐term studies of plant physiology and population demography.

Arizona↗
USGS2019

Management regime and habitat response influence abundance of regal fritillary (Speyeria idalia) in tallgrass prairie

The >2,570,000-ha Flint Hills ecoregion of Kansas, USA, harbors the largest remaining contiguous tract of tallgrass prairie in North America, a unique system, as the remainder of North America's tallgrass prairie has succumbed to development and conversion. Consequently, the loss and degradation of tallgrass prairie has reduced populations of many North American prairie-obligate species including the regal fritillary ( Speyeria idalia ) butterfly. Population abundance and occupied range of regal fritillary have declined >99%, restricting many populations to isolated, remnant patches of tallgrass prairie. Such extensive decline has resulted in consideration of the regal fritillary for protection under the Endangered Species Act. Although it is widely accepted that management practices such as fire, grazing, and haying are necessary to maintain prairie ecosystems, reported responses by regal fritillary to these management regimes have been ambiguous. We tested effects of prescribed fire across short, moderate, and long fire-return intervals as well as grazing and haying management treatments on regal fritillary density. We also tested the relative influence of habitat characteristics created by these management regimes by measuring density of an obligate host plant ( Viola spp.) and canopy cover of woody vegetation, grasses, forbs/ferns, bare ground, and litter. We found density was at least 1.6 times greater in sites burned with a moderate fire-return interval vs. sites burned with short and long fire-return intervals. Overall management regardless of fire-return interval did not have an effect on density. Percent cover of grass had the strongest positive association, while percent cover of woody vegetation had the greatest negative effect on density. Our results indicate that patch-burning is a viable and perhaps even ideal management strategy for regal fritillary in tallgrass prairie landscapes. Additionally, these results elucidate the importance of fire, particularly when applied at moderate-return intervals to regal fritillary, and corroborate a growing suite of studies that suggest fire is perhaps not as detrimental to populations of regal fritillary as previously believed.

Kansas↗
USGS2019

A range-wide model of contemporary, omnidirectional connectivity for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise

As habitat destruction leads to species extinctions globally, conservation planning that accounts for population-level connectivity and gene flow is an urgent priority. Models that only approximate habitat potential are incomplete because areas of high habitat potential may be isolated, whereas intermixed areas of lower habitat potential may still be critical for maintaining connectivity between and among populations. We developed a range-wide, omnidirectional (‘coreless’) connectivity model and map for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise at a high spatial resolution (30 m), based on empirical movement data and a circuit-theoretic approach to estimating connectivity. Specifically, we first estimated habitat potential (i.e., quality) for tortoise movement (as distinct from habitat potential more generally) across its range using hypotheses based on the published literature, linear mixed models, multiple environmental factors derived from remotely sensed data, and recent solar and wind development footprints. The resultant raster output was used to represent landscape conductance in a circuit-theoretic model of connectivity, which relates the flow of electrical current through a circuit to the movement of tortoises through the landscape. We then modeled potential connectivity across the range of the tortoise using Circuitscape software and the Julia numerical programming language. Intermediate distances from minor roads, intermediate values of annual average maximum temperature, and increasing density of desert washes were among the strongest predictors of movement habitat quality. There was also strong evidence for increased habitat quality for movement with increasing amounts of vegetation cover. The resulting connectivity model and map was determined to accurately reflect important areas for tortoise movement, but we encourage others to do their own evaluation of the model within local areas of interest and as more data become available. Accordingly, the map can provide an important component to improve management decisions that have the potential to influence the conservation of connected desert tortoise populations throughout the range.

California↗
USGS2019

Geese mediate vegetation state changes with parallel effects on N cycling that leave nutritional legacies for offspring

Along the coastal fringe of the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta in southwestern Alaska, geese maintain grazing lawns dominated by a rhizomatous sedge that, when ungrazed, transitions to a taller, less palatable growth form that is taxonomically described as a different species. Nutrients recycled in goose feces, in conjunction with grazing, are critical to the rapid, nutritious growth of grazing lawns, and selective foraging on lawns has positive life‐history consequences for goslings. To examine whether bidirectional vegetation shifts were accompanied by parallel changes in N cycling, we studied how 15 N‐urea and 13 C 15 N‐glycine were processed through soils and plants of native and recently reverted vegetation states. Biomass and plant 15 N uptake from plots reverted to the tall growth form using exclosures and from those shifted to grazing lawns by experimental clipping and then goose grazing were identical to their native counterparts. Total recovery of 15 N within the tall vegetation types was significantly greater than within grazing lawns, although when expressed on a per‐gram biomass basis, percentage of 15 N recovery was significantly higher in grazing lawns compared with the tall vegetation state. Patterns of 13 C enrichment in CO 2 soil efflux showed rapid use of 13 C‐glycine as a respiratory substrate within the first hour following injection, with both the timing and magnitude of efflux occurring at similar time points for all four vegetation types. However, higher soil respiration rates and a shorter half‐life for 13 C‐glycine in soils from tall meadows resulted in a greater proportional loss of 13 CO 2 compared with grazing lawns. Despite daily‐to‐weekly tidal inundation, all of 15 N from labeled substrates could be accounted for within 1 m of the injection grid from soils of both states after 30 d, with significant levels of 15 N in soils and vegetation after one year. Geese have remarkably high fidelity to brood‐rearing areas, returning as adults to the same grazing lawns where they were raised as goslings. Our data suggest that the role fecal‐derived nutrients play in the positive feedback loop between geese and their food resources can provide a long‐term legacy that spans generations.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Thermal variability drives synchronicity of an aquatic insect resource pulse

Spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions can prolong food availability by desynchronizing the timing of ephemeral, high‐magnitude resource pulses. Spatial patterns of water temperature are highly variable among rivers as determined by both natural and anthropogenic features, but the influence of this variability on freshwater resource pulse phenology is poorly documented. We quantified water temperature and emergence phenology of an aquatic insect (salmonfly, Pteronarcys californica ) resource pulse in two rivers characterized by differing catchment topography and human impact. Along both rivers, salmonfly emergence occurred earlier where spring temperatures were warmer. Emergence events were brief (4–8 d) at sites in the more human‐impacted river, but occurred asynchronously along the entire river, lasting 27 d in total. In contrast, emergence events were more prolonged (6–11 d) at sites on the more natural and topographically complex river, but occurred synchronously along the entire river, lasting 13 d in total. These scale‐specific differences in subsidy duration could have opposing consequences for salmonfly consumers depending on their mobility and foraging habits. Asynchronous emergence at a large scale is potentially most important for mobile consumers like birds and fish that can migrate to feed on aquatic insects and track resource waves across a landscape, whereas prolonged emergence duration at a smaller scale may be most important for immobile or opportunistic consumers like spiders and ants. Relating environmental heterogeneity and resource pulse phenology across a gradient of human impact and at multiple spatial scales is needed for a better understanding of how food availability, aquatic–terrestrial linkages, and consumer–resource dynamics may change with climate variability and increasing human activity in the future.

Montana↗
USGS2019

Floodplains provide important amphibian habitat despite multiple ecological threats

Floodplain ponds and wetlands are productive and biodiverse ecosystems, yet they face multiple threats including altered hydrology, land use change, and non‐native species. Protecting and restoring important floodplain ecosystems requires understanding how organisms use these habitats and respond to altered environmental conditions. We developed Bayesian models to evaluate occupancy of six amphibian species across 103 off‐channel aquatic habitats in the Chehalis River floodplain, Washington State, USA. The basin has been altered by changes in land use, reduced river–wetland connections, and the establishment of non‐native American bullfrogs ( Rana catesbeiana = Lithobates catesbeianus ) and centrarchid fishes, all of which we hypothesized could influence native amphibian occupancy. Despite potential threats, the floodplain habitats had relatively high rates of native amphibian occupancy, particularly when compared to studies from non‐floodplain habitats within the species’ native ranges. The biggest challenge for native amphibians appears to be non‐native centrarchid fishes, which strongly reduced occupancy of two native amphibians: the northern red‐legged frog ( Rana aurora ) and the northwestern salamander ( Ambystoma gracile ). Emergent vegetative cover increased occupancy probability for all five native amphibian species, indicating that plant management may offer a strategy to counter the negative effect of centrarchids by providing refuge from predation. We found that temporary and permanent hydroperiod sites supported different species; hence, both should be conserved on the landscape. Lastly, human‐created and natural ponds had similar amphibian occupancy patterns, suggesting that pond construction offers a viable strategy for adding habitats to the floodplain landscape. Overall, floodplain ponds and wetlands provide important amphibian habitat, and we offer management strategies that will bolster amphibian occupancy in an altered floodplain landscape.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Framework for using downscaled climate model projections in ecological experiments to quantify plant and soil responses

Soil and plant responses to climate change can be quantified in controlled settings. However, the complexity of climate projections often leads researchers to evaluate ecosystem response based on general trends, rather than specific climate model outputs. Climate projections capture spatial and temporal climate extremes and variability that are lost when using mean climate trends. In addition, application of climate projections in experimental settings remains limited. Our objective was to develop a framework to incorporate statistically downscaled climate model projections into the design of temperature and precipitation treatments for ecological experiments. To demonstrate the utility of experimental treatments derived from climate projections, we used wetlands in the Great Plains as a model ecosystem for evaluating plant and soil responses. Spatial and temporal projections were selected to capture variability and intensity of projected future conditions for exemplary purposes. To illustrate climate projection application for ecological experiments, we developed temperature and precipitation treatments based on moderate-emissions scenario climate outputs (i.e., RCP4.5–650 ppm CO 2 equivalent). Our temperature treatments captured weekly trends that represented cool, average, and warm temperature predictions, and our daily precipitation treatments mimicked various seasonal precipitation trends and extreme events projected for the late 21st century. Treatments were applied to two short-term controlled experiments evaluating (1) plant germination (temperature treatment applied in growth chamber) and (2) soil nitrogen cycling (precipitation treatment applied in greenhouse) responses to projected future conditions in the Great Plains. Our approach provides flexibility for selecting appropriate and precise climate model outputs to design experimental treatments. Using these techniques, ecologists can better incorporate variation in climate model projections for experimentally evaluating ecosystem responses to future climate conditions, reduce uncertainty in predictive ecological models, and apply predicted outcomes when making management and policy decisions.

Nebraska, Texas↗
USGS2019

Designing multi-scale hierarchical monitoring frameworks for wildlife to support management: A sage-grouse case study

Population monitoring is integral to the conservation and management of wildlife; yet, analyses of population demographic data rarely consider processes occurring across spatial scales, potentially limiting the effectiveness of adaptive management. Therefore, we developed a method to identify hierarchical levels of organization (i.e., populations) to define multiple spatial scales, specifically intended to help guide appropriate conservation and management actions. This approach can support mobile species with high site fidelity where surveys occur on birthing/breeding grounds or migratory stopovers. Our approach used a graphbased clustering algorithm (Spatial K’luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal) that explicitly included habitat selection information at multiple scales and further refined with constraint-based rules. We applied these concepts to greater sage-grouse leks (breeding grounds), a species of conservation concern, in two different ecological contexts (Nevada and Wyoming, USA). The constraint-based rules accounted for inter-lek movement distances based on literature and field studies in Nevada from 2012 to 2016, included methods to support a spatially balanced monitoring design, and identified barriers to movements among leks based on resistance surfaces. We evaluated the performance of our hierarchical clusters in Nevada using independent data from radio-marked sage-grouse, and we found the finest-scaled cluster level captured ~90% of sagegrouse movements and mid-level scales captured ~97–99% of movements. We expected comparable performance for Wyoming, where we lacked radio-marked sage-grouse for an evaluation, because genetic studies estimate similar dispersal distances to our ~15 km inter-lek movement distance in Nevada. For sage-grouse and other mobile species with high site fidelity, our approach to defining these frameworks could prove valuable for conservation and management applications, such as improving estimation of scale-dependent population trends and guiding the prescription of management actions at spatial scales that align with identified threats. Specific to sage-grouse, our analysis sets the stage for designing a monitoring framework that relies on comparison of short- and long-term population trends across our defined spatial scales and identifies and disentangles factors driving local (e.g., habitat quality) and regional (e.g., climate) population changes, thereby supporting scale-dependent management and research needs for adaptive management practices.

Nevada, Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Foraging ecology mediates response to ecological mismatch during migratory stopover

Impacts of ecological mismatches should be most pronounced at points of the annual cycle when populations depend on a predictable, abundant, and aggregated food resource that changes in timing or distribution. The degree to which species specialize on a key prey item, therefore, should determine their sensitivity to mismatches. We evaluated the hypothesis that the effects of ecological mismatch during migratory stopover are mediated by a species’ foraging ecology by comparing two similar long‐distance migratory species that differ in their foraging strategies during stopover. We predicted that a specialist foraging strategy would make species more sensitive to effects of mismatch with a historically abundant prey, while an active, generalist foraging strategy should help buffer against changing local conditions. We estimated arrival times, start of mass gain, and rate of mass gain during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA. At this site, shorebirds feed on a temporally aggregated food resource (horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus eggs), the timing of which is linked to water temperature; red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa ) specializes on these while the ruddy turnstone ( Arenaria interpres ) feeds more generally. We used a hierarchical nonlinear model to estimate the effect of mismatch between shorebird arrivals and timing of crab spawning on the timing and rate of mass gain over 22 yr. In years with cooler water temperature, crabs spawned later, which was associated with later and faster mass gain for the knots. Turnstones exhibited less inter‐annual variation in the timing and rate of mass gain than knots, and we found no relationship between mass gain dynamics and the availability of horseshoe crab eggs for this generalist species. Long‐distance migrants rely on predictable resources en route and even when these linkages are simple and predictable, populations can be vulnerable to change; these results suggest that generalist foraging strategies may buffer migratory species against phenological mismatch. We provide a framework to evaluate population responses to changes in prey phenology at sites vulnerable to climatic change.

Delaware↗
USGS2019

A mechanistic understanding of ecological responses to land-use change in headwater streams

Anthropogenic activities, such as oil and natural gas development (ONGD), have significantly altered the landscape. It is often challenging to identify the mechanistic processes underlying ecological responses to land-use change (LUC). In aquatic ecosystems, alterations to habitat and food availability and water quality associated with increased LUC are key mechanistic pathways that deserve management consideration. We used structural equation modeling to evaluate how LUC associated with ONGD could influence macroinvertebrate and fish across 40 sites in six headwater streams in the Wyoming Range of the Upper Green River Basin, Wyoming. The most important mechanistic pathway varied, but responses were frequently driven by a direct effect of LUC or related to changes in food availability and water quality. Habitat complexity was the least important mechanistic pathway in our models. Our results also highlight that responses may reflect an organism's degree of habitat or resource specialization and/or sensitivity to changes in water quality. Habitat pathways were more important for habitat specialists (e.g., Mottled Sculpin, Cottus bairdii ), food pathways were more important for food specialists (e.g., Colorado River Cutthroat Trout, Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus ; Mountain Sucker, Catostomus platyrhynchus ), and sensitivity to increased salinity was important for intolerant species (e.g., O. clarki , C. bairdii , and predatory macroinvertebrates). Continued identification of the specific mechanisms underlying species’ responses to increased LUC will aid in the conservation of ecologically and economically important species.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Pre‐fire vegetation drives post‐fire outcomes in sagebrush ecosystems: Evidence from field and remote sensing data

Understanding the factors that influence vegetation responses to disturbance is important because vegetation is the foundation of food resources, wildlife habitat, and ecosystem properties and processes. We integrated vegetation cover data derived from field plots and remotely sensed Landsat images in two focal areas over a 37‐yr period (1979–2016) to investigate how historical changes to community composition influence contemporary responses of vegetation to fire in sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin. Our objectives were (1) to quantify the magnitude and direction of change in the cover of native and exotic plant functional groups in relation to their exposure to fire; (2) to relate plant community changes to their historical composition, exposure to fire, and environmental conditions; and (3) to test for consistency of trends revealed by vegetation cover data derived from field plots and Landsat images. Historical (1979–1981) field data originated from 298 locations, Landsat‐derived data and contemporary (2011–2016) field data originated from 448 locations, and an expanded set of locations were included in some analyses of Landsat‐derived data. We found that areas burned by fire since the 1980s had higher annual herbaceous cover than unburned areas both historically and contemporarily. Models revealed a significant interaction between historical community composition and exposure to fire, which suggests that plots with historically high herbaceous cover were more susceptible to burning. Trends revealed by field and Landsat‐derived cover data were only partially consistent, potentially due in part to methods used to predict cover values from Landsat images, and the time period over which each data set was collected. Our results suggest that burned areas historically occupied by sagebrush‐dominated plant communities may have been invaded by exotic annuals prior to burning, possibly because of prior land uses, and after burning, have now transitioned to a persistent herbaceous‐dominated state. This type of state transition has important consequences for forage quality, wildlife habitat, soil nutrients, and future disturbances, such as drought and wildfire.

Oregon, Nevada↗
USGS2019

Spatio-temporal variability of human-fire interactions on the Navajo Nation

Unraveling the effects of climate and land-use on historical fire regimes provides important insights into broader human-fire-climate dynamics, which are necessary for ecologically-based forest management. We developed a spatial human land-use model for Navajo Nation forests across which we sampled a network of tree-ring fire history sites to reflect contrasting historical land-use intensity: high human use, primarily in the Chuska Mountains, and low human use, primarily on the central Defiance Plateau. We tested for and compared human- and climate-driven changes in the fire regimes by applying change point detection, regression, and superposed epoch analyses. The historical fire regimes and fire-climate relationships reflect those of similar forests regionally, and are similar between the two Navajo landscapes until the early 1800s. We then determined that a previously identified, localized, early (1830s) decline in fire activity was geographically widespread across higher human use sites. In contrast, fires continued to burn uninterrupted through this period at the lower use sites. Though the 1830s included significantly wet and cold periods that could have contributed to fire regime decline, human factors pose a more spatio-temporally consistent explanation. A rise in Navajo pastoralism in the 1820s-1830s was concentrated seasonally in the heavy use sites. By the 1880s, livestock numbers more than doubled, grazing became far more spatially widespread, and frequent fire regimes of Navajo forests collapsed. The last widespread fire recorded on either landscape was in 1886. In the Chuska Mountains, livestock and fire co-existed for over 50 years between the initial 1832 fire decline and the end of frequent fires after 1886, an exceptional pattern in the western US. Though unique in its timing, character, and spatial dynamics, the collapse of historical fire regimes in Navajo forests contributed to now over a century without frequent surface fire, leaving Navajo forests at risk for large, uncharacteristic high-severity fires.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2019

Riparian soil nitrogen cycling and isotopic enrichment in response to a long-term salmon carcass manipulation experiment

Pacific salmon acquire most of their biomass in the ocean before returning to spawn and die in coastal streams and lakes, thus providing subsidies of marine‐derived nitrogen (MDN) to freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. Recent declines in salmon abundance have raised questions of whether managers should mitigate for losses of salmon MDN subsidies. To test the long‐term importance of salmon subsidies to riparian ecosystems, we measured soil nitrogen cycling in response to a 20‐yr manipulation where salmon carcasses were systematically removed from one bank and deposited on the opposite bank along a 2‐km stream in southwestern Alaska. Soil samples were taken at different distances from the stream bank along nine paired transects and measured for organic and inorganic nitrogen concentrations, and nitrogen transformation rates. Marine‐derived nitrogen was measured using 15 N/ 14 N for bulk soils, and NH 4 + "> 𝑁𝐻 + 4 NH4+ and NO 3 − "> 𝑁𝑂 − 3 NO3− soil pools. Stable isotope analyses confirmed 15 N/ 14 N was elevated on the salmon‐enhanced bank compared to the salmon‐depleted bank. However, 15 N/ 14 N values of plant‐available inorganic nitrogen exceeded the 15 N/ 14 N of salmon inputs, highlighting nitrogen isotope fractionation in soils that raises significant methodological issues with standard MDN assessments in riparian systems. Surprisingly, despite 20 yr of salmon supplementation, the presence of MDN did not cause a long‐term increase in soil nitrogen availability. This finding indicates the importance of MDN to ecosystem nitrogen biogeochemistry, and riparian vegetation may be overestimated for some systems. Given that essential nutrients can also be pollutants, we urge more critical analyses of the role of MDN to inform compensatory mitigation programs targeting salmon nutrient enhancement.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2019

Sequence analysis and acoustic tracking individual lake sturgeon identifies multiple patterns of river-lake habitat use

Understanding the spatial ecology of sturgeon (Acipenseridae) has proven to be a challenge due to the life history characteristics of these fish, especially their long life span, intermittent spawning, and long‐distance migrations. Within the Huron‐Erie Corridor (HEC) of the Laurentian Great Lakes, habitat use of 247 lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) was monitored over a three‐year period (2015–2017) with acoustic transmitters. Extensive spatial coverage of receivers throughout the St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, and Detroit River between Lake Huron and Lake Erie (~150 km) allowed for continuous monitoring of the movements of acoustic‐tagged individuals. Sequence analysis of individual detection histories was used to describe lake sturgeon habitat use and to determine (1) whether distinct habitat‐use patterns occurred within the HEC; (2) whether the range of habitats occupied varied across seasons among sturgeon grouped by common patterns; and (3) whether variation identified was related to tagging sites in the two rivers or sex. Lake sturgeon were active throughout the HEC, but five distinct habitat‐use patterns were identified. River residents were not broadly distributed across entire rivers, but rather associated with particular segments (middle Detroit River, St. Clair River delta). Variations in habitat‐use sequences were in part related to three river tagging sites, but not sex, and did not produce groups with sequences that reflected all five habitat‐use patterns derived from cluster analysis. Lake sturgeon distribution was reduced to fewer habitat segments during winter and expanded to the maximum extent during the spring and summer. Conservation planning that incorporates behavioral diversity of habitat use is relatively rare due to a lack of observations on movements of individuals at biologically relevant spatial and temporal scales, but using telemetry and sequence analysis methods may promote the success of conservation and restoration efforts.

St. Clair River, Lake St. Clair, Detroit River↗
USGS2020

Is your ad hoc model selection strategy affecting your multimodel inference?

(Yackulic) 1. Ecologists routinely fit complex models with multiple parameters of interest, where hundreds or more competing models are plausible. To limit the number of fitted models, ecologists often define a model selection strategy composed of a series of stages in which certain features of a model are compared while other features are held constant. Defining these multi-stage strategies requires making a series of decisions, which may potentially impact inferences, but have not been critically evaluated. 2. We begin by identifying key features of strategies, introducing descriptive terms when they did not already exist in the literature. Strategies differ in how they define and order model building stages. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies focus on one sub-model (parameter) at a time with modeling of subsequent sub-models dependent on the selected model structures from the previous stages. Secondary candidate set strategies model sub-models independently and combine the top set of models from each sub-model for selection in a final stage. Build-up approaches define stages across sub-models and increase in complexity at each stage. Strategies also differ in how the top set of models is selected in each stage and whether they use null or more complex model structures for non-target sub-models. 3. We tested the performance of different model selection strategies using four datasets and three model types. For each dataset, we determined the “true” distribution of AIC weights by fitting all plausible models. Then, we calculated the number of models that would have been fitted and the portion of “true” AIC weight we recovered under different model selection strategies. 4. Sequential-by-sub-model strategies often performed poorly. Build-up or secondary candidate sets were more reliable, provided all models within 5 AIC of the top model were carried forward to subsequent stages. The structure of non-target sub-models was less important. 5. Multi-stage approaches cannot compensate for a lack of critical thought in selecting covariates and building models to represent competing a priori hypotheses. However, even when competing hypotheses for different sub-models are limited, thousands or more models may be possible so strategies to explore candidate model space reliably and efficiently will be necessary.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2020

Use of visual surveys and radiotelemetry reveals sources of detection bias for a cryptic snake at low densities

Transect surveys are frequently used to estimate distribution and abundance of species across a landscape, yet a proportion of individuals present will be missed because either they were out of view and unavailable for detection or they were available but not detected because the surveyors missed them. These situations lead to availability and perception bias, respectively, and can result in misleading estimates of abundance and habitat use. In this study, we examined potential biases of visual surveys used for the brown tree snake ( Boiga irregularis ), a cryptic invasive snake responsible for the extirpation of at least 15 vertebrates on Guam. We simultaneously executed visual surveys and radiotelemetry in a low‐density population of brown tree snakes with two goals in mind: to assess the efficacy of visual surveys in detecting subjects at low densities and to identify sources of perception and availability bias in such surveys. Results indicated that with considerable effort, visual surveys can predict the presence of this cryptic reptile even at low densities (0.4 animals/ha) but perform poorly at predicting areas of high use resulting in inaccurate estimates of relative habitat importance. Telemetered snakes used densely foliated plants including Pandanus tectorius and ferns (epiphytic and terrestrial species) for nearly half of their time, yet <9% of visual survey observations occurred in these microhabitats. Visibility of snakes decreased as they perched higher in the canopy mirroring the disparity between visual survey and telemetry detections but was also surprisingly low near the forest floor (0–1 m). Microhabitats identified in this study are likely to disproportionately affect visual surveys and would be appropriate resources to target for management purposes. When there is critical need to prevent false negatives, such as during an incipient invasion elsewhere, targeted searches of high‐use resources could augment other detection tools to improve detection probabilities of this and other cryptic species. ble for detection or they were available but not detected because the surveyors missed them. These situations lead to availability and perception bias, respectively, and can result in misleading estimates of abundance and habitat use. In this study, we examined potential biases of visual surveys used for the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis), a cryptic invasive snake responsible for the extirpation of at least 15 vertebrates on Guam. We simultaneously executed visual surveys and radiotelemetry in a low-density population of brown treesnakes with two goals in mind: to assess the efficacy of visual surveys in detecting subjects at low densities and to identify sources of perception and availability bias in such surveys. Results indicated that with considerable effort, visual surveys can predict the presence of this cryptic reptile even at low densities (0.4 animals/ha) but perform poorly at predicting areas of high use resulting in inaccurate estimates of relative habitat importance. Telemetered snakes used densely foliated plants including Pandanus tectorius and ferns (epiphytic and terrestrial species) for nearly half of their time yet less than 9% of visual survey observations occurred in these microhabitats. Visibility of snakes decreased as they perched higher in the canopy mirroring the disparity between visual survey and telemetry detections but was also surprisingly low near the forest floor (0-1 meter). Microhabitats identified in this study are likely to disproportionately affect visual surveys and would be appropriate resources to target for management purposes. When there is critical need to prevent false negatives, such as during an incipient invasion elsewhere, targeted searches of high-use resources could augment other detection tools to improve detection probabilities of this and other cryptic species.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2020

The lead (Pb) lining of agriculture‐related subsidies: enhanced Golden Eagle growth rates tempered by Pb exposure

Supplementary food resources (e.g., subsidies) associated with agriculture can benefit wildlife species, increasing predictability and availability of food. Avian scavengers including raptors often utilize subsidies associated with both recreational hunting and pest shooting on agricultural lands. However, these subsidies can contain lead (Pb) fragments if they are culled with Pb‐based ammunition, potentially leading to Pb poisoning and physiological impairment in wildlife. Nesting Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) commonly forage in agricultural lands during the breeding season, and therefore, both adults and their nestlings are susceptible to Pb exposure from scavenging shot wildlife. We assessed drivers of Pb exposure in 258 nestling Golden Eagles (401 total blood samples), along with physiological and growth responses, in agricultural lands across four western states in the United States. We also evaluated the birds’ Pb stable isotope signatures to inform exposure sources. Twenty‐six percent of Golden Eagle nestlings contained Pb concentrations associated with subclinical poisoning for sensitive species (0.03–0.2 μg/g ww), 4% had Pb concentrations that exceeded subclinical poisoning benchmarks (0.2–0.5 μg/g ww), and <1% exceeded either concentrations associated with clinical poisoning (0.5–1.0 μg/g ww) and or those deemed to cause severe clinical poisoning (>1.0 μg/g ww). Lead concentrations were highest in nestlings with close proximity to fields that potentially provided subsidies and declined exponentially as distance to subsidies increased. However, close proximity to agriculture, and presumably subsidies, positively influenced nestling growth rates. Across the range of Pb exposure, nestlings experienced a 67% reduction in delta‐aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (δ‐ALAD) activity, suggesting nestlings may have been anemic or experiencing cellular damage. Isotopic ratios of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb increased non‐linearly with increasing blood Pb in Golden Eagle nestlings, and 45% of the birds were consistent with those of ammunition. However, above 0.10 μg/g ww, the proportion associated with ammunition increased to 89% of the nestlings. An improved understanding of how these positive (growth) and negative (physiology) effects associated with proximity to subsidies interact would be beneficial to managers when considering management scenarios and potentially evaluating any measures taken to reduce Pb exposure across the landscape.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming↗