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USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi River Science Forum—Summary of data and science needs and next steps

The U.S. Geological Survey hosted a Mississippi River Science Forum with Federal agencies; Tribal, State, and local governments located in States that border the Mississippi River; academia; and other interested stakeholders. The purpose of the forum was to share current (2023) science; identify data gaps and areas of concern; and to prioritize next steps needed to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters along the Mississippi River. The forum was a directive for the U.S. Geological Survey in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 (Public Law 117—103, 136 Stat. 49). Participants and stakeholders that attended the Mississippi River Science Forum indicated the following. A Mississippi River Science Committee could bring together the voices of all stakeholders, including Federal agencies; State, local, and Tribal governments; academia; nongovernmental organizations; business and industry; and other interested parties. This committee would also work with (but not replace) Mississippi River Basin entities already in place and establish effective communication to identify and address Basin-wide management needs and to develop holistic solutions for those needs. A Mississippi River science plan could expand on the science and data gaps identified by the Forum. This plan could guide data collection and help resource managers develop and implement restoration initiatives within the Basin, recognizing that addressing these needs will require substantial resources. The science committee, working with other entities in the basin, should develop data standards for the Mississippi River Basin that allow stakeholders to utilize comparable data to address their needs. These standards would include data findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability. This report highlights data gaps and areas of concern discussed during the forum, and it identifies needs to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters with specific emphasis on data collection and measurement, and scientific investigation. The report also summarizes stakeholder input and feedback and outlines next steps identified by forum participants.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1975

Flood of April 1975 at Meridian Township, Michigan

On April 18 between 5 p.m. and 12 p.m. Meridian Township experienced an intense rain storm that caused the Red Cedar River to overflow its banks resulting in extensive flooding. The Federal Disaster Assistance Administration report that five homes were destroyed, and 332 homes and 10 businesses damaged. Early estimates indicated that damages may be as high as $6.25 million. During the flood the U.S. Geological Survey obtained aerial photography and streamflow data to document the disaster. This report shows, on photomosaic base maps, the extent of flooding along the Red Cedar River and the lower reach of Pine Lake Outlet. Streamflow data obtained at the gaging station on the Red Cedar River at East Lansing, about 3/4 mile (1.2 km) downstream from the western margin of the report area, are given. Information provided within the report is useful in making decisions regarding use of flood plains in the area. It is one of a series of reports on the April 1975 flood in the Lansing metropolitan area.

Michigan↗
USGS1975

Sources of emergency water supplies in San Mateo County, California

San Mateo County has several densely populated urban areas that get most of their water supplies from surface-water sources that could by damaged by a major earthquake or other general disaster. In the event of such a disaster, limited supplies of potable water may be obtained from selected wells, springs, and perennial streams. This report outlines the principal sources of existing water supplies, gives information on the need for emergency water-supply procedures, presents general criteria needed for selecting emergency water-supply wells, summarizes information for 60 selected water wells, numerous springs, and perennial streams that can be used as sources of water, and describes emergency water-purification procedures that can be used by individuals or small groups of people.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Founded in 1912 at the edge of the caldera of Kīlauea Volcano, HVO was the vision of Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., a geologist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, whose studies of natural disasters around the world had convinced him that systematic, continuous observations of seismic and volcanic activity were needed to better understand—and potentially predict—earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Jaggar summarized the aim of HVO by stating that “the work should be humanitarian” and have the goals of developing “prediction and methods of protecting life and property on the basis of sound scientific achievement.” These goals align well with those of the USGS, whose mission is to serve the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage natural resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. “Characteristics of Hawaiian Volcanoes” establishes a benchmark for the current understanding of volcanism in Hawai‘i, and the articles herein build upon the elegant and pioneering work of Jaggar and many other USGS and academic scientists. Each chapter synthesizes the lessons learned about a specific aspect of volcanism in Hawai‘i, based largely on continuous observation of eruptive activity (like that occurring now at Kīlauea Volcano) and on systematic research into volcanic and earthquake processes during HVO’s first 100 years. Researchers and students interested in basaltic volcanism should find the volume to be a valuable starting point for future investigations of Hawaiian volcanoes and an important reference for decades to come, as well as an informative and entertaining read.

Hawaii↗
USGS2011

Flash floods of August 10, 2009, in the Villages of Gowanda and Silver Creek, New York

Late during the night of August 9, 2009, two storm systems intersected over western New York and produced torrential rain that caused severe flash flooding during the early morning hours of August 10 in parts of Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, and Erie Counties. Nearly 6 inches of rain fell in 1.5 hours as recorded by a National Weather Service weather observer in Perrysburg, which lies between Gowanda and Silver Creek-the communities that suffered the most damage. This storm intensity had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years). Although flooding along Cattaraugus Creek occurred elsewhere, Cattaraugus Creek was responsible for very little flooding in Gowanda. Rather the small tributaries, Thatcher Brook and Grannis Brook, caused the flooding in Gowanda, as did Silver Creek and Walnut Creek in the Village of Silver Creek. Damages from the flooding were widespread. Numerous road culverts were washed out, and more than one-quarter of the roads in Cattaraugus County were damaged. Many people were evacuated or rescued in Gowanda and Silver Creek, and two deaths occurred during the flood in Gowanda. The water supplies of both communities were compromised by damages to village reservoirs and water-transmission infrastructures. Water and mud damage to residential and commercial properties was extensive. The tri-county area was declared a Federal disaster area and more than $45 million in Federal disaster assistance was distributed to more than 1,500 individuals and an estimated 1,100 public projects. The combined total estimate of damages from the flash floods was greater than $90 million. Over 240 high-water marks were surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey; a subset of these marks was used to create flood-water-surface profiles for four streams and to delineate the areal extent of flooding in Gowanda and Silver Creek. Flood elevations exceeded previously defined 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) elevations by 2 to 4 feet in Gowanda and as much as 6 to 8 feet in Silver Creek. Most of the high-water marks were used in indirect hydraulic computations to estimate peak flows for four streams. The peak flows in Grannis Brook and Thatcher Brook were computed, using the slope-area method, to be 1,400 and 7,600 cubic feet per second, respectively, and peak flow in Silver Creek was computed, using the width-contraction method, to be 19,500 cubic feet per second. The annual exceedance probabilities for flows in these and other basins with small drainage areas that fell almost entirely within the area of heaviest precipitation were less than 0.2 percent (or recurrence intervals greater than 500 years). The peak flow in Cattaraugus Creek at Gowanda was computed, using the slope-area method, to be 33,200 cubic feet per second with an annual exceedance probability of 2.2 percent (recurrence interval of 45 years).

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Hurricane Irene and associated floods of August 27-30, 2011, in New Jersey

Intense rainfall from Hurricane Irene during August 27–30, 2011, inundated streams throughout New Jersey resulting in peak streamflows exceeding the 100-year recurrence interval at many streamgages and causing heavy property and road damage. The rain event affected the entire State. Some notably affected areas were the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins in northeastern New Jersey with new peaks of record at 10 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations on streams such as the Hackensack River, Ramapo River, Rockaway River, and Green Pond Brook. In the Atlantic Coastal Basin, new peaks of record were recorded at 6 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 2 of which were on the Manasquan River, 1 on Toms River, 1 on the Mullica River, 1 on the North Branch Metedeconk River, and 1 on the West Branch Wading River. Several tributaries to the Delaware River, such as the Pequest River, Flat Brook, and Assunpink Creek, also experienced major flooding with new peaks of record at nine continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) documented peak streamflows and water-surface elevations at 125 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, 27 crest-stage partial-record stations, and peak water-surface elevations at 24 continuous-record tide gages within the State of New Jersey. With rainfall totals averaging more than 10 inches throughout the State, peak-of-record flood elevations and streamflows occurred at 32 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations. Flood-frequency recurrence-intervals were recomputed for 80 gages with 20 or more years of record; 25 crest-stage gages ranged from 25 years to greater than 500 years for the peak-of-record floods. The maximum peak streamflow per square mile ranged from 20 to 759 cubic feet per second per square mile. The August 27–30, 2011, flood peaks rank as the peaks of record for 32 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with a period of record of 23 to 100 years, as the second highest peaks for 21 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with a period of record of 21 to 114 years, and the third highest peaks of record for 11 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations with a period of record of 43 to 96 years. Several gages have documented peaks dating back to 1903. About 1 million people across the State were evacuated, and every county was eventually declared a Federal disaster area. Property damage in New Jersey was estimated to be $1 billion. Governor Chris Christie declared a State of Emergency for New Jersey on August 31, 2011. After assessment of the damage by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, President Obama declared all 21 counties major disaster areas in the State of New Jersey on August 31, 2011.

New Jersey↗
USGS2014

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges. Layered sedimentary deposits commonly give the most complete geologic record of large floods, storm surges, and tsunamis. Sedimentary layers may be preserved for hundreds or thousands of years in suitable depositional environments, thereby providing an archive of rare, high-magnitude events. All inundation hazards discussed in this report—riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges—have had long records extracted from sedimentary sequences, many specifically for hazard assessment. Geologic records commonly are imprecise, so most hazard assessments benefit from evaluation of many sites and rigorous uncertainty assessment. Despite uncertainties, geologic records commonly can improve knowledge of the types and magnitudes of hazards threatening specific sites or regions. New statistical tools and approaches can efficiently incorporate geologic information into frequency assessments. These tools are most developed for riverine flood hazards, but are to some degree transferable to other episodic natural phenomena such as tsunamis and storm surges. Even with these efficient statistical approaches for examining geologic records, systematic landscape changes may reduce the applicability of retrospective assessments. These non-stationarity issues (such as climate change, sea‑level rise, land-use, dams and flow regulation) may all affect the validity of using past experience—no matter how complete the record—to assess future likelihoods. These issues require site-specific consideration for nearly all hazard assessments drawn from geologic evidence. A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

The 2014 annual report for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Introduction This report summarizes team activities and findings of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the year 2014 in geology, geodesy, seismicity, and gas geochemistry. The eruption of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō continued into its 32nd year with flows active to the northeast of the vent. One of them, the June 27th lava flow, named for the date in 2014 that the flow started, advanced far and fast enough to threaten the town of Pāhoa and Highway 130 in the Puna District of the Island of Hawai‘i. In response, the alert level for Kīlauea was elevated from WATCH to WARNING on September 4, followed by the declaration of a State Disaster on September 5 and a National Disaster on November 3. During 2014, renewed inflation and increased seismicity was detected beneath the summit and upper west flank of Mauna Loa. Although above background, the frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes remained at such low levels that, by year’s end, the four-tier alert level code for Mauna Loa remained at its lowest level—NORMAL. These changes were discussed in several Volcano Watch articles. Hualālai, Haleakalā, Mauna Kea, and Lo‘īhi showed no signs of unrest during the year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2023

2022 drought in New England

Introduction During April through September 2022, much of New England experienced a short but extreme hydrologic drought that was similar to the drought of 2020. By August 2022, Providence, Rhode Island, was declared a Federal disaster area, and New London and Windham counties in Connecticut were declared natural disaster areas. Mandatory water use restrictions were put in place in communities in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island (Mecray and Borisoff, 2022). Precipitation in many areas of New England fell below normal levels in November 2021 and continued to decline until September 2022, contributing to low streamflows and groundwater levels in the region. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow and groundwater conditions from April to September 2022 were used to characterize the hydrologic component of this short-duration drought. Several record low streamflows and groundwater levels were observed across New England, even falling below 2020 levels in parts of southern New England. The severity of this drought varied across New England, and regional and statewide perspectives are presented in this report. Highlights May through August in 2022 ranked as the driest for those 4 months in 138 years of record at Boston, Massachusetts, with only 5.74 inches of rain (average of 13.26 inches). Water levels at 95 USGS groundwater monitoring wells across New England were below normal in August; 16 of these wells recorded their lowest August water level in 25 years. Flows at 54 USGS streamgages across New England were below normal in August, and 10 of those streamgages recorded their lowest August flows in 30 years. Two USGS streamgages in Massachusetts (stations 01105600 and 01171500 with 56 and 83 years of record, respectively) had record 7-day average low flows on August 21, 2022, and August 22, 2022, respectively.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2019

Global earthquake response with imaging geodesy: recent examples from the USGS NEIC

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center leads real-time efforts to provide rapid and accurate assessments of the impacts of global earthquakes, including estimates of ground shaking, ground failure, and the resulting human impacts. These efforts primarily rely on analysis of the seismic wavefield to characterize the source of the earthquake, which in turn informs a suite of disaster response products such as ShakeMap and PAGER. In recent years, the proliferation of rapidly acquired and openly available in-situ and remotely sensed geodetic observations has opened new avenues for responding to earthquakes around the world in the days following significant events. Geodetic observations, particularly from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and satellite optical imagery, provide a means to robustly constrain the dimensions and spatial complexity of earthquakes beyond what is typically possible with seismic observations alone. Here, we document recent cases where geodetic observations contributed important information to earthquake response efforts – from informing and validating seismically-derived source models to independently constraining earthquake impact products – and the conditions under which geodetic observations improve earthquake response products. We use examples from the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan, Pakistan, 2014 Mw6.0 Napa, California, 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, and 2018 Mw7.5 Palu, Indonesia earthquakes to highlight the varying ways geodetic observations have contributed to earthquake response efforts at the NEIC. We additionally provide a synopsis of the workflows implemented for geodetic earthquake response. As remote sensing geodetic observations become increasingly available and the frequency of satellite acquisitions continues to increase, operational earthquake geodetic imaging stands to make critical contributions to natural disaster response efforts around the world.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2021

Conservation of northwestern and southwestern pond turtles: Threats, population size estimates, and population viability analysis

Accurate status assessments of long-lived, widely distributed taxa depend on the availability of long-term monitoring data from multiple populations. However, monitoring populations across large temporal and spatial scales is often beyond the scope of any one researcher or research group. Consequently, wildlife managers may be tasked with utilizing limited information from different sources to detect range-wide evidence of population declines and their causes. When assessments need to be made under such constraints, the research and management communities must determine how to extrapolate from variable population data to species-level inferences. Here, using three different approaches, we integrate and analyze data from the peer-reviewed literature and government agency reports to inform conservation for northwestern pond turtles (NPT) Actinemys marmorata and southwestern pond turtles (SPT) Actinemys pallida . Both NPT and SPT are long-lived freshwater turtles distributed along the west coast of the United States and Mexico. Conservation concerns exist for both species; however, SPT may face more severe threats and are thought to exist at lower densities throughout their range than NPT. For each species, we ranked the impacts of 13 potential threats, estimated population sizes, and modeled population viability with and without long-term droughts. Our results suggest that predation of hatchlings by invasive predators, such as American bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus and Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, is a high-ranking threat for NPT and SPT. Southwestern pond turtles may also face more severe impacts associated with natural disasters (droughts, wildfires, and floods) than do NPT. Population size estimates from trapping surveys indicate that SPT have smaller population sizes on average than do NPT ( P = 0.0003), suggesting they may be at greater risk of local extirpation. Population viability analysis models revealed that long-term droughts are a key environmental parameter; as the frequency of severe droughts increases with climate change, the likelihood of population recovery decreases, especially when census sizes are low. Given current population trends and vulnerability to natural disasters throughout their range, we suggest that conservation and recovery actions first focus on SPT to prevent further population declines.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2022

Earthquakes and tsunami

Earthquakes occur as a burst of sudden ground shaking created by the release of accumulated stress along a fault, often influenced by movement of the world’s tectonic plates. Ground shaking from an earthquake can generate additional hazards, including landslides, liquefaction, and tsunami. According to the 2019 “Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction”, earthquakes combined with tsunami are the most damaging environmental hazards globally. Impacts of earthquakes and tsunami on people have increased around the world as human development of built infrastructure continues to expand. Adverse earthquake and tsunami impacts can be reduced through strategies including land-use planning, engineering, mitigation and preparedness, emergency planning, warnings, and exercises. The specific disaster risk reduction approaches taken will depend on the country, considering the geography, built environment, and social and cultural contexts. Wherever the location, it is important that such measures are considered and implemented holistically, as singular approaches may not be effective in addressing earthquake and tsunami challenges.

Book chapter↗
USGS1999

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Annals of Geophysics↗
USGS2011

Rapid Source Characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

On March 11th, 2011, a moment magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck off the coast of northeast Honshu, Japan, generating what may well turn out to be the most costly natural disaster ever. In the hours following the event, the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center led a rapid response to characterize the earthquake in terms of its location, size, faulting source, shaking and slip distributions, and population exposure, in order to place the disaster in a framework necessary for timely humanitarian response. As part of this effort, fast finite-fault inversions using globally distributed body- and surface-wave data were used to estimate the slip distribution of the earthquake rupture. Models generated within 7 hours of the earthquake origin time indicated that the event ruptured a fault up to 300 km long, roughly centered on the earthquake hypocenter, and involved peak slips of 20 m or more. Updates since this preliminary solution improve the details of this inversion solution and thus our understanding of the rupture process. However, significant observations such as the up-dip nature of rupture propagation and the along-strike length of faulting did not significantly change, demonstrating the usefulness of rapid source characterization for understanding the first order characteristics of major earthquakes.

Tohoku, Honshu↗
USGS2012

Demand surge following earthquakes

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2011

On the contribution of reconstruction labor wages and material prices to demand surge

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon of large-scale natural disasters, most commonly explained by higher repair costs (after a large- versus small-scale disaster) resulting from higher material prices and labor wages. This study tests this explanation by developing quantitative models for the cost change of sets, or "baskets," of repairs to damage caused by Atlantic hurricanes making landfall on the mainland United States. We define six such baskets, representing the total repair cost, and material and labor components, each for a typical residential or commercial property. We collect cost data from the leading provider of these data to insurance claims adjusters in the United States, and we calculate the cost changes from July to January for nine Atlantic hurricane seasons at fifty-two cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The data show that: changes in labor costs drive the changes in total repair costs; cost changes can vary significantly by geographic region and year; and cost changes for the residential basket of repairs are more volatile than the cost changes for the commercial basket. We then propose a series of multilevel regression models to predict the cost changes by considering several combinations of the following explanatory variables: the largest gradient wind speed at a city in a hurricane season; the number of tropical storms in a hurricane season whose center passes within 200 km of a city; and cost changes in the first two quarters of the year. We also allow the coefficients of the regression model to be stochastic, varying across groups defined by region of the Southeastern United States and year. Our best models predict that, for any city on the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts in any hurricane season, the residential total repair cost changes vary from 0.01 to 0.25, depending on the wind speed and number of storms, with an uncertainty of 0.1 (two standard errors of prediction) given the wind speed and number of storms. The commercial total repair cost changes vary from 0.005 to 0.15 with an uncertainty of 0.08. Our models including wind speed, the number of storms affecting a city, and cost changes in the first half of the year explain roughly half of the observed variability in cost changes. Additional explanatory variables that we have not considered may account for the remaining variability. Given these models, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in their predictions. This uncertainty arises from variations between groups defined by region and year, not from variations within a given region and year.

SESM↗
USGS2013

Integrating complexity into data-driven multi-hazard supply chain network strategies

Major strategies in the wake of a large-scale disaster have focused on short-term emergency response solutions. Few consider medium-to-long-term restoration strategies that reconnect urban areas to the national supply chain networks (SCN) and their supporting infrastructure. To re-establish this connectivity, the relationships within the SCN must be defined and formulated as a model of a complex adaptive system (CAS). A CAS model is a representation of a system that consists of large numbers of inter-connections, demonstrates non-linear behaviors and emergent properties, and responds to stimulus from its environment. CAS modeling is an effective method of managing complexities associated with SCN restoration after large-scale disasters. In order to populate the data space large data sets are required. Currently access to these data is hampered by proprietary restrictions. The aim of this paper is to identify the data required to build a SCN restoration model, look at the inherent problems associated with these data, and understand the complexity that arises due to integration of these data.

Book↗
USGS2020

Drought early warning and forecasting

Drought risk management involves three pillars: drought early warning, drought vulnerability and risk assessment, and drought preparedness, mitigation, and response. This book collects in one place a description of all the key components of the first pillar, and describes strategies for fitting these pieces together. The best modern drought early warning systems incorporate and integrate a broad array of environmental information sources: weather station observations, satellite imagery, land surface and crop model simulations, and weather and climate model forecasts, and analyze this information in context-relevant ways that take into account exposure and vulnerability. Drought Early Warning and Forecasting: Theory and Practice assembles a comprehensive overview of these components, providing examples drawn from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United States Drought Monitor. This book simultaneously addresses the physical, social, and information management aspects of drought early warning, and informs readers about the tools, techniques, and conceptual models required to effectively identify, predict, and communicate potential drought-related disasters. This book is a key text for postgraduate scientists and graduate and advanced undergraduate students in hydrology, geography, earth sciences, meteorology, climatology, and environmental sciences programs. Professionals dealing with disaster management and drought forecasting will also find this book beneficial to their work.

Book↗