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Regression models of discharge and mean velocity associated with near-median streamflow conditions in Texas: utility of the U.S. Geological Survey discharge measurement database

A database containing more than 16,300 discharge values and ancillary hydraulic attributes was assembled from summaries of discharge measurement records for 391 USGS streamflow-gauging stations (streamgauges) in Texas. Each discharge is between the 40th- and 60th-percentile daily mean streamflow as determined by period-of-record, streamgauge-specific, flow-duration curves. Each discharge therefore is assumed to represent a discharge measurement made for near-median streamflow conditions, and such conditions are conceptualized as representative of midrange to baseflow conditions in much of the state. The hydraulic attributes of each discharge measurement included concomitant cross-section flow area, water-surface top width, and reported mean velocity. Two regression equations are presented: (1) an expression for discharge and (2) an expression for mean velocity, both as functions of selected hydraulic attributes and watershed characteristics. Specifically, the discharge equation uses cross-sectional area, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area of the watershed, and mean annual precipitation of the location; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.95 and residual standard error of approximately 0.23 base-10 logarithm (cubic meters per second). The mean velocity equation uses discharge, water-surface top width, contributing drainage area, and mean annual precipitation; the equation has an adjusted R-squared of approximately 0.50 and residual standard error of approximately 0.087 third root (meters per second). Residual plots from both equations indicate that reliable estimates of discharge and mean velocity at ungauged stream sites are possible. Further, the relation between contributing drainage area and main-channel slope (a measure of whole-watershed slope) is depicted to aid analyst judgment of equation applicability for ungauged sites. Example applications and computations are provided and discussed within a real-world, discharge-measurement scenario, and an illustration of the development of a preliminary stage-discharge relation using the discharge equation is given.

Texas

Beating effect identified from seismic responses of instrumented buildings

Beating effects observed in the recorded responses of buildings are examined in this paper. Beating is a periodic, resonating and prolonged vibrational behavior caused by distinctive close coupling of translational and torsional modes of a lightly damped structure. Repetitively stored potential energy during the coupled translational and torsional deformations turns into repetitive vibrational energy causing the ensuing prolonged motions. Beating, if a dominant response characteristic, may impact the instantaneous and long-term shaking performances of the buildings during earthquakes. In many cases, it is noted that resonance caused by site effects also contributes to accentuating the beating effect. Records from the buildings exhibit structural responses with beating effects. Spectral analyses and system identification techniques are used to quantify dynamic characteristics used in computing beating periods. The beat frequency generally known in acoustical physics is denoted by the absolute value of the differences in frequencies that cause the phenomenon. Engineering implications of the beating may be summarized as (a) prolonged cyclic shaking due to beating effect may take its toll on the structural system, (b) repetitive shaking can accentuate fatigue and low-cycle fatigue, and (c) resonating beating cycles can and do cause discomfort to occupants. Identification of beating effects is the key to find remedial action in modification of dynamic characteristics in order to attenuate or eliminate such effects.

Conference Paper

Constraining source and path effects of large magnitude earthquakes using ground motion simulations

The purpose of this study is to use ground‐motion simulations to investigate ways in which source and path effects for large‐magnitude earthquakes can be represented in nonergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs). To achieve this, we designed a ground‐motion study in the San Francisco Bay Area that includes earthquakes with a broad range of magnitudes distributed uniformly on a fault plane, and sites covering a large range of rupture distances and azimuths. After running a large suite of kinematic simulations (magnitude 4–7), we then develop a nonergodic GMM with the simulated data. We find that trends in the within‐site residuals are affected significantly by the earthquake radiation pattern, rupture directivity, and slip patterns. Next, we modify an existing rupture directivity model to fit and remove the observed radiation pattern and rupture directivity from the residuals. We also minimize the contributions of slip patterns by averaging the within‐site residuals among multiple source realizations. Finally, after removing the source effects from the within‐site residuals, we compare the path effects computed with different magnitude groups using two approaches. The first approach only considers the small events that have the same shortest path to a site as the large events, whereas the second approach considers all small events on the fault plane. The results indicate that it is difficult to satisfactorily approximate the path effects of large events with those of small events using either approach, at least in the case of simulations.

California

Effects of land use on water quality and transport of selected constituents in streams in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, 1994–98

Transport rates for total solids, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, biochemical oxygen demand, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc during 1994–98 were computed for six stormwater-monitoring sites in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. These six stormwater-monitoring sites were operated by the Mecklenburg County Department of Environmental Protection, in cooperation with the City of Charlotte, and are located near the mouths of major streams. Constituent transport at the six study sites generally was dominated by nonpoint sources, except for nitrogen and phosphorus at two sites located downstream from the outfalls of major municipal wastewater-treatment plants. To relate land use to constituent transport, regression equations to predict constituent yield were developed by using water-quality data from a previous study of nine stormwater-monitoring sites on small streams in Mecklenburg County. The drainage basins of these nine stormwater sites have relatively homogeneous land-use characteristics compared to the six study sites. Mean annual construction activity, based on building permit files, was estimated for all stormwater-monitoring sites and included as an explanatory variable in the regression equations. These regression equations were used to predict constituent yield for the six study sites. Predicted yields generally were in agreement with computed yields. In addition, yields were predicted by using regression equations derived from a national urban water-quality database. Yields predicted from the regional regression equations generally were about an order of magnitude lower than computed yields. Regression analysis indicated that construction activity was a major contributor to transport of the constituents evaluated in this study except for total nitrogen and biochemical oxygen demand. Transport of total nitrogen and biochemical oxygen demand was dominated by point-source contributions. The two study basins that had the largest amounts of construction activity also had the highest total solids yields (1,300 and 1,500 tons per square mile per year). The highest total phosphorus yields (3.2 and 1.7 tons per square mile per year) attributable to nonpoint sources also occurred in these basins. Concentrations of chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc were positively correlated with total solids concentrations at most of the study sites (Pearson product-moment correlation >0.50). The site having the highest median concentrations of chromium, copper, and nickel also was the site having the highest computed yield for total solids.

North Carolina

Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system of the Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow system and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Menominee Indian Reservation. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, to contribute to the fundamental understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system, including groundwater/surface-water interactions, and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional groundwater-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate groundwater-flow patterns at multiple scales. Simulations made with the regional model reproduce groundwater levels and stream base flows representative of recent conditions (1970–2013) and illustrate groundwater-flow patterns with maps of (1) the simulated water table and groundwater-flow directions, (2) probabilistic areas contributing recharge to high-capacity pumped wells, and (3) estimation of the extent of infiltrated wastewater from treatment lagoons. The groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including surficial unconsolidated aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from existing high-capacity production wells. Areas contributing recharge to pumped high-capacity wells on the Menominee Indian Reservation were delineated by tracking simulated water particles from the water table to wells in combination with Monte Carlo techniques, and maps of the probability of capture for each well nest were produced. Groundwater-agebased areas contributing recharge to wells were simulated by using the calibrated set of parameters and porosity values adjusted to account for bias in simulated saturated thickness. Simulations were performed for current (2013) pumping rates. The simulations show a range in sensitivity of the simulated areas contributing recharge to wells given the parameters evaluated through the Monte Carlo analysis. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for the villages of Zoar and Neopit are long and narrow, with a sharp gradation from high to low probability of capture. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for Middle Village and the village of Keshena exhibit a sharp gradation from high to low probability over a relatively small area between the well and a local groundwater mound. The highest probability areas contributing recharge to the supply wells for the Villages of Onekewat and Redwing are in the immediate vicinity of the wells. These wells also have an extensive area with low probability for capturing water that is likely due to a locally low hydraulic gradient and the large degree of uncertainty associated with the lakebed resistance parameters that control interaction between groundwater and local lakes. Additional field investigations and associated local model refinements would facilitate further reductions in uncertainty associated with simulated areas contributing recharge to the wells. The likely extent of the Neopit wastewater plume was simulated by using the groundwater-flow model and Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the sensitivity of predictive simulations to a range of model parameter values. Wastewater infiltrated from the currently operating lagoons flows predominantly south toward Tourtillotte Creek. Some of the infiltrated wastewater is simulated as having a low probability of flowing beneath Tourtillotte Creek to the nearby West Branch Wolf River. Results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are considered to be qualitative because the method only considers advective flow and does not account for processes affecting contaminant transport in porous media. Therefore, results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are sensitive to the number of particles used to represent flow from the lagoon and the resolution of a synthetic grid used for the analysis. Nonetheless, it is expected that the qualitative results may be of use for identifying potential downgradient areas of concern that can then be evaluated using the quantitative “area contributing recharge to wells” method or traditional contaminant-transport simulations.

Wisconsin

An Automated Cropland Classification Algorithm (ACCA) for Tajikistan by combining Landsat, MODIS, and secondary data

The overarching goal of this research was to develop and demonstrate an automated Cropland Classification Algorithm (ACCA) that will rapidly, routinely, and accurately classify agricultural cropland extent, areas, and characteristics (e.g., irrigated vs. rainfed) over large areas such as a country or a region through combination of multi-sensor remote sensing and secondary data. In this research, a rule-based ACCA was conceptualized, developed, and demonstrated for the country of Tajikistan using mega file data cubes (MFDCs) involving data from Landsat Global Land Survey (GLS), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) 30 m, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m time-series, a suite of secondary data (e.g., elevation, slope, precipitation, temperature), and in situ data. First, the process involved producing an accurate reference (or truth) cropland layer (TCL), consisting of cropland extent, areas, and irrigated vs. rainfed cropland areas, for the entire country of Tajikistan based on MFDC of year 2005 (MFDC2005). The methods involved in producing TCL included using ISOCLASS clustering, Tasseled Cap bi-spectral plots, spectro-temporal characteristics from MODIS 250 m monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maximum value composites (MVC) time-series, and textural characteristics of higher resolution imagery. The TCL statistics accurately matched with the national statistics of Tajikistan for irrigated and rainfed croplands, where about 70% of croplands were irrigated and the rest rainfed. Second, a rule-based ACCA was developed to replicate the TCL accurately (∼80% producer’s and user’s accuracies or within 20% quantity disagreement involving about 10 million Landsat 30 m sized cropland pixels of Tajikistan). Development of ACCA was an iterative process involving series of rules that are coded, refined, tweaked, and re-coded till ACCA derived croplands (ACLs) match accurately with TCLs. Third, the ACCA derived cropland layers of Tajikistan were produced for year 2005 (ACL2005), same year as the year used for developing ACCA, using MFDC2005. Fourth, TCL for year 2010 (TCL2010), an independent year, was produced using MFDC2010 using the same methods and approaches as the one used to produce TCL2005. Fifth, the ACCA was applied on MFDC2010 to derive ACL2010. The ACLs were then compared with TCLs (ACL2005 vs. TCL2005 and ACL2010 vs. TCL2010). The resulting accuracies and errors from error matrices involving about 152 million Landsat (30 m) pixels of the country of Tajikistan (of which about 10 million Landsat size, 30 m, cropland pixels) showed an overall accuracy of 99.6% (k hat = 0.97) for ACL2005 vs. TCL2005. For the 3 classes (irrigated, rainfed, and others) mapped in ACL2005, the producer’s accuracy was >86.4% and users accuracy was >93.6%. For ACL2010 vs. TCL2010, the error matrix showed an overall accuracy on 96.2% (k hat = 0.96). For the 3 classes (irrigated, rainfed, and others) mapped in ACL2010, the producer’s and user’s accuracies for the irrigated areas were ≥82.9%. Any intermixing was overwhelmingly between irrigated and rainfed croplands, indicating that croplands (irrigated plus rainfed areas) as well as irrigated areas were mapped with high levels of accuracies (∼90% or higher) even for the independent year. The ACL2005 and ACL2010, each, were produced using ACCA algorithm in ∼30 min using a Dell Precision desktop T7400 computer for the entire country of Tajikistan once the MFDCs for the years were ready. The ACCA algorithm for Tajikistan is made available through US Geological Survey’s ScienceBase: http://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/folder/4f79f1b7e4b0009bd827f548 or at: https://powellcenter.usgs.gov/globalcroplandwater/content/models-algorithms . The research contributes to the efforts of global food security through research on global croplands and their water use (e.g., https://powellcenter.usgs.gov/globalcroplandwater/ ). The above results clearly demonstrated the ability of a rule-based ACCA to rapidly and accurately produce cropland data layer year after year (hindcast, nowcast, forecast) for the country it was developed using MFDCs that consist of combining multiple sensor data and secondary data. It needs to be noted that the ACCA is applicable to the area (e.g., country, region) for which it is developed. In this case, ACCA is applicable for the Country of Tajikistan to hindcast, nowcast, and forecast agricultural cropland extent, areas, and irrigated vs. rainfed. The same fundamental concept of ACCA applies to other areas of the World where ACCA codes need to be modified to suite the area/region of interest. ACCA can also be expanded to compute other crop characteristics such as crop types, cropping intensities, and phenologies.

Remote Sensing

A bibliography of terrain modeling (geomorphometry), the quantitative representation of topography: Supplement 4.0

Terrain modeling, the practice of ground-surface quantification, is an amalgam of Earth science, mathematics, engineering, and computer science. The discipline is known variously as geomorphometry (or simply morphometry), terrain analysis, and quantitative geomorphology. It continues to grow through myriad applications to hydrology, geohazards mapping, tectonics, sea-floor and planetary exploration, and other fields. Dating nominally to the co-founders of academic geography, Alexander von Humboldt (1808, 1817) and Carl Ritter (1826, 1828), the field was revolutionized late in the 20th Century by the computer manipulation of spatial arrays of terrain heights, or digital elevation models (DEMs), which can quantify and portray ground-surface form over large areas (Maune, 2001). Morphometric procedures are implemented routinely by commercial geographic information systems (GIS) as well as specialized software (Harvey and Eash, 1996; Köthe and others, 1996; ESRI, 1997; Drzewiecki et al., 1999; Dikau and Saurer, 1999; Djokic and Maidment, 2000; Wilson and Gallant, 2000; Breuer, 2001; Guth, 2001; Eastman, 2002). The new Earth Surface edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research, specializing in surficial processes, is the latest of many publication venues for terrain modeling. This is the fourth update of a bibliography and introduction to terrain modeling (Pike, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1999) designed to collect the diverse, scattered literature on surface measurement as a resource for the research community. The use of DEMs in science and technology continues to accelerate and diversify (Pike, 2000a). New work appears so frequently that a sampling must suffice to represent the vast literature. This report adds 1636 entries to the 4374 in the four earlier publications1. Forty-eight additional entries correct dead Internet links and other errors found in the prior listings. Chronicling the history of terrain modeling, many entries in this report predate the 1999 supplement. Coverage is representative from about 1800 through early–mid 2002. Papers increasingly are published exclusively or in duplicate on the Internet's World Wide Web; the dates given here for Web addresses (URLs) that lack a print publication indicate a Web site's last update or my last access of it. The bibliography is arranged alphabetically and thus is not readily summarized. This introduction cites about 500 entries, a third of them grouped under 24 morphometric topics, as a guide to the listing's contents. Continuing the practice of previous bibliographies in the series to provide more information on a few applications (see summary of past topics in Pike, 2000a), this report elaborates further on topographic data, putative new parameters, tectonic geomorphology/neo-orometry, biogeography, ice-cap morphometry, results from the Mars Global DEM, landslide-hazard mapping, terrain modeling as physics, Hack's law, and broad-scale computer visualization. The literature of some of these subjects is large, and none of the summaries is intended to more than introduce the topic and comment on some of the current contributions of terrain modeling. Closing the essay is a discussion of pre-1900 papers that trace the evolution of ridge-line and watercourse quantification by descriptive geometry, as well as comments on some new books and an on-line bulletin board.

Open-File Report

Effects of land use and travel time on the distribution of nitrate in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in southern New Jersey

Residents of the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain are increasingly reliant on the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system for public water supply as a result of increasing population and restrictions on withdrawals from the deeper, confined aquifers. Elevated nitrate concentrations above background levels have been found in wells in the surficial aquifer system in agricultural and urban parts of this area. A three-dimensional steady-state ground-water-flow model of a 400-square-mile study area near Glassboro, New Jersey, was used in conjunction with particle tracking to examine the effects of land use and travel time on the distribution of nitrate in ground and surface water in southern New Jersey. Contributing areas and ground-water ages, or travel times, of water at ground-water discharge points (streams and wells) in the study area were simulated. Concentrations of nitrate were computed by linking land use and age-dependent nitrate concentrations in recharge to the discharge points. Median concentrations of nitrate in water samples collected during 1996 from shallow monitoring wells in different land-use areas were used to represent the concentration of nitrate in aquifer recharge since 1990. On the basis of upward trends in the use of nitrogen fertilizer, the concentrations of nitrate in aquifer recharge in agricultural and urban areas were assumed to have increased linearly from the background value in 1940 (0.07 mg/L as N) to the 1990 (2.5-14 mg/L as N) concentrations. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the simulation results to measured nitrate concentrations and apparent ground-water ages. Apparent ground-water ages at 32 monitoring wells in the study area determined from tritium/helium-3 ratios and sulfur hexafluoride concentrations favorably matched simulated travel times to these wells. Simulated nitrate concentrations were comparable to concentrations measured in 27 water-supply wells in the study area. A time series (1987-98) of nitrate concentrations at base-flow conditions in three streams that drain basins of various sizes and with various land uses was compared to simulated concentrations in these streams. In all three of the streams, a reasonable fit to the measured concentrations was achieved by multiplying the simulated concentration by 0.6. Because nitrate appeared to move conservatively (not degraded or adsorbed) in ground water to wells, the apparent non-conservative behavior in streams indicates that about 40 percent of the nitrate in aquifer recharge is removed by denitrification in the aquifer near the streams and (or) by in-stream processes. The model was used to evaluate the effects of various nitrate management options on the concentration of nitrate in streams and water-supply wells. Nitrate concentrations were simulated under the following management alternatives: an immediate ban on nitrate input, reduction of input at a constant rate, and fixed input at the current (2000) level. The time required for water to move through the aquifer results in a time lag between the reduction of nitrate input in recharge and the reduction of nitrate concentration in streams and wells. In the gradual-reduction alternative, nitrate concentrations in streams and wells continued to increase for several years after the reduction was enacted. In both the immediate-ban and gradual-reduction alternatives, nitrate concentrations remained elevated above background concentrations long after nitrate input ceased. In the fixed-use alternative, concentrations in streams and wells continued to increase for 30 to 40 years before reaching a constant level. The spatial distributions of simulated nitrate concentrations in streams in 2000 and 2050 were examined with the assumption of no change in land use, nitrate concentration in recharge, or ground-water withdrawals. As expected, nitrate concentrations were highest in agricultural areas and lowest in largely undeveloped areas.

New Jersey

Incorporating interpreter variability into estimation of the total variance of land cover area estimates under simple random sampling

Area estimates of land cover and land cover change are often based on reference class labels determined by analysts interpreting satellite imagery and aerial photography. Different interpreters may assign different reference class labels to the same sample unit. This interpreter variability is typically not accounted for in variance estimators applied to area estimates of land cover. A simple measurement model provides the basis for an estimator of the total variance ( V Total ) that takes into account both sampling variance and interpreter variance. This method requires two or more reference class interpretations (i.e., repeated measurements) obtained by analysts, working independently of each other, for the full sample or a random subsample of the full sample. Estimators of the total variance ( V ̂ Total "> V̂Total ) and the variance component attributable to interpreters ( V ̂ 1 "> V̂1 ) were obtained for the case of two reference class interpretations per repeated sample unit. To evaluate the effect of interpreter variability on variance estimation, we used land cover reference data interpreted by seven analysts who each interpreted the same 300 sample pixels from a region of the Pacific Northwest of the United States. From these data, we estimated the contribution of interpreter variance to the total variance (i.e., V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total ) and the relative bias of the standard simple random sampling variance estimator ( V ̂ stand "> V̂stand ) as an estimator of V Total , defined as 100%*( V ̂ stand − V ̂ Total "> V̂stand−V̂Total )/ V ̂ Total "> V̂Total . For each of five land cover classes, we computed V ̂ 1 "> V̂1 , V ̂ Total "> V̂Total , and V ̂ stand "> V̂stand using the sample data from each of the 21 possible pairwise combinations of the seven interpreters, and then calculated the mean of V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total and the mean of the estimated relative bias of V ̂ stand "> V̂stand over these 21 pairs. Based on the mean of V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total per class, interpreter variance contributed from 25% (cropland) to 76% (grass/shrub) of the total variance, indicating that interpreter variance was a non-negligible component of the total variance. Typically, the standard variance estimator, V ̂ stand "> V̂stand , underestimated the total variance with the mean estimated relative bias ranging from −3% (cropland) to −33% (grass/shrub). Classes with greater inconsistency between pairs of interpreters had larger contributions of interpreter variance to the total variance ( V ̂ 1 / V ̂ Total "> V̂1/V̂Total ) and larger negative estimated relative bias of V ̂ stand "> V̂stand . Given that interpreter variance can contribute substantially to the total variance, the repeated measurements approach offers a practical way to incorporate this variability into an estimator of the total variance.

Washington

Integrating hydrology and biogeochemistry across frozen landscapes

Research has traditionally focused on atmospheric release of carbon from thawing permafrost, yet overlooked waterborne release pathways likely contribute significantly, especially in a warming Arctic. To address this knowledge gap and better constrain the fate of carbon in the North, we recommend inter-disciplinary efforts bridging physical, chemical and computational research.

Nature Communications

Instructions for running the analytical code PAT (Purge Analyzer Tool) for computation of in-well time of travel of groundwater under pumping conditions

Introduction Understanding the optimal time needed to purge a well while pumping to collect a representative groundwater sample requires an understanding of groundwater flow in wells (in-well flow). Parameters that affect in-well flow include the hydraulic properties of the aquifer, well construction, drawdown from pumping, and pump rate. The time of travel relative to in-well flow is affected by the pump’s intake location. The Purge Analyzer Tool (PAT) incorporates hydraulic calculations to help assess the optimal purge times required to vertically transport groundwater in the well to the pump intake (Harte, 2017). Harte (2017) includes a discussion on the rationale for determining in-well groundwater flow and time of travel and also discusses the limitations inherent in the PAT; an understanding of the limitations is important to ensure proper use. The PAT calculates flow by use of the Dupuit-Theim equation (Lohman, 1979) that assumes steady-state radial flow and a total inflow from the well opening or screen equal to the pumping rate (eq. 1). A bulk average hydraulic conductivity (K avg ) is derived from this relationship. Once K avg is calculated, the program calculates incremental (layered) horizontal radial inflow into the well over user defined increments (layers). These defined increments represent the screen or well opening as a fraction of the total inflow. The amount of inflow per layer is proportional to the user-defined layered distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K layer ) because drawdown is assumed to be uniformly distributed in the well. The water budget equation that guides the solution of the PAT (eq. 1) is specified as: Q p = Q v + Q H + Q w (1) where Q P is pumping rate, Q v is vertical flow entering the boundary of the mixing zone (M z ) from the summation of layered radial flow (∑ Q hl-n ) where l-n denotes number of layers, Q H is horizontal radial flow into the mixing zone (M z ), and Q w is flow from wellbore storage effects. The in-well flow is computed from the convergence of incremental (layered) radial inflows (Q hl-n ) summed to the total vertical flow (Q V ) entering the adjacent zone to the pump intake (called mixing zone [M z ]) as shown in figure 1. The Q v is transported as one-dimensional piston flow. Within the M z , it's assumed that flow to the pump is dominated by horizontal radial flow (Q H ) when the pump is in the open interval of the well. Flow from the wellbore storage (Q w ) is computed from the volume of water pumped from the well at the time of the drawdown (s) measurement(s). Aquifer storage effects are unaccounted for but are likely to be problematic when (1) dewatering within the well opening occurs or (2) when the water table is close to the top of the well screen or open interval where additional flow into the upper portion of the well opening may occur. For fully saturated wells tens of feet below the water table, storage effects are likely to be more uniformly distributed across the well screen or open interval (regardless of confined or unconfined conditions). Therefore, radial inflow from storage will be less prominent under pump rates commonly used in groundwater sampling either for volumetric sampling ( < 3 gallons per minute) or low-flow sampling ( < 0.5 liters per minute). A major benefit of the use of the PAT is the understanding of time-varying, vertical integration of captured pump water. The analytical model computes aquifer (formation) capture intervals relative to the open interval of the well. This information is displayed graphically (called aquifer fraction graphs) and can be used to assess the likely formation intervals contributing water to the sample at any time.

Open-File Report

Topography and Sedimentation Characteristics of the Squaw Creek National Wildlife Refuge, Holt County, Missouri, 1937-2002

The Squaw Creek National Wildlife Refuge (hereafter referred to as the Refuge), located on the Missouri River floodplain in northwest Missouri, was established in 1935 to provide habitat for migratory birds and wildlife. Results of 1937 and 1964 topographic surveys indicate that sedimenta-tion, primarily from Squaw Creek and Davis Creek inflows, had substantially reduced Refuge pool volumes and depths. A study was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, to quantify and spatially analyze historic rates of sedimentation in the Refuge and determine the surface elevations, depths, and pool capacities for selected managed pools from a 2002 survey.The 1937 to 1964 mean total sediment depo-sition, in the area corresponding to the 2002 sur-veyed pool area (about 4,900 acres), was 1.26 ft (feet), or 0.047 ft/yr (foot per year). Mean annual rates of deposition, by pool, from 1937 to 1964 varied from 0.016 to 0.083 ft/yr. From 1964 to 2002, the mean total sediment deposition in the 2002 surveyed pools was 0.753 ft, or 0.020 ft/yr. Therefore, the mean rate of sediment-depth accu-mulation from 1964 to 2002 was about 42 percent of the mean 1937 to 1964 rate, or a 58 percent reduction. Mean annual rates of deposition by pool from 1964 to 2002 varied from 0.010 to 0.049 ft/yr. Despite a substantial reduction in the average sediment accumulation rate for the Refuge, 5 of the 15 separate pools for which annual rates were calculated for both periods showed a small increase in the deposition rates of up to 0.008 ft/yr. Sediment deposits have resulted in a sub-stantial cumulative loss of volume in the Refuge pools since 1937. The 1937 to 2002 total sediment volume deposited in the 2002 surveyed pool area was about 9,900 acre-ft (acre-feet), or 152 acre-ft/yr (acre-feet per year). The volume of sediment deposited from 1937 to 1964 for these pools was about 6,200 acre-ft, or 230 acre-ft/yr. The volume deposited from 1964 to 2002 was about 3,700 acre-ft, or 97.3 acre-ft/yr.Bulk density values were determined from sediment cores collected from 22 sites in the Ref-uge and the bulk densities, along with sediment volumes, allowed for the calculation of sediment mass contributions to the Refuge. From 1937 to 2002, about 10,300,000 tons of sediment were deposited in the 2002 surveyed area, or 32.4 tons/acre/yr (tons per acre per year). The total computed mass of sediment deposited between 1937 and 1964 was about 6,510,000 tons, or an average of 49.1 tons/acre/yr. The total mass depos-ited from 1964 to 2002 in surveyed pools was about 3,830,000 tons, or an average of 20.5 tons/acre/yr. As with sediment thickness compari-sons, the rate of sediment mass deposition between 1964 to 2002 was about 42 percent of that from 1937 to 1964, or a 58 percent reduction.The greatest amounts of sediment deposition in the Refuge for 1937 to 2002 have been near the Squaw Creek and Davis Creek inflow spillway locations. Sediment depths in some areas near former inflow locations have exceeded 8 ft. Relo-cation of an inflow spillway effectively reduced additional sediment deposition at the original loca-tion, and caused increased sedimentation at the new inflow location. This is most clearly depicted in a pool located in the north section of the Refuge that directly received Squaw Creek inflows from 1937 to 1964 and had a mean deposition rate of 0.081 ft/yr reduced to 0.012 ft/yr, from 1964 to 2002, after inflows were redirected and erosion-management plans were implemented in the con-tributing basins.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River downstream of Austin, Texas

A procedure to estimate the peak discharge associated with large floods is needed for tributaries of the Colorado River downstream of Austin, Texas, so that appropriate peak discharges can be used to estimate floodplain boundaries and used for the design of bridges and other structures. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority, studied flood peaks for streams in all or parts of 22 counties in that part of the Colorado River Basin extending downstream of Town Lake in Austin to the Gulf of Mexico. The study area was selected because the streams in this area either are tributaries to the Colorado River or have flood characteristics similar to those tributaries. Peak-flow frequency for 38 stations with at least 8 years of data in natural (unregulated and nonurbanized) basins was estimated on the basis of annual peak-streamflow data through water year 1995. Peak-flow frequency represents the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The peak-flow frequency and drainage basin characteristics for the stations were used to develop two sets of regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for tributaries of the Colorado River in the study area. One set of equations was developed for contributing drainage areas less than 32 square miles, and another set was developed for contributing drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. A procedure is presented to estimate the peak discharge at sites where both sets of equations are considered applicable. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent prediction interval for any estimation from the equations.

Texas

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS-derived surface velocities

Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BA??VU??, "bay view"), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ?? 0.6 mm yr-1 directed toward N30.4??W ?? 0.8?? at San Francisco (??2??). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr-1: San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ?? 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ?? 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ?? 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ?? 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ?? 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/ Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

A Mass-balance nitrate model for predicting the effects of land use on ground-water quality in municipal wellhead-protection areas

A mass-balance accounting model can be used to guide the management of septic systems and fertilizers to control the degradation of groundwater quality in zones of an aquifer that contributes water to public supply wells. The nitrate nitrogen concentration of the mixture in the well can be predicted for steady-state conditions by calculating the concentration that results from the total weight of nitrogen and total volume of water entering the zone of contribution to the well. These calculations will allow water-quality managers to predict the nitrate concentrations that would be produced by different types and levels of development, and to plan development accordingly. Computations for different development schemes provide a technical basis for planners and managers to compare water quality effects and to select alternatives that limit nitrate concentration in wells. Appendix A contains tables of nitrate loads and water volumes from common sources for use with the accounting model. Appendix B describes the preparation of a spreadsheet for the nitrate loading calculations with a software package generally available for desktop computers. (USGS)

Open-File Report

Streamflow and erosion response to prolonged intense rainfall of November 1-2, 2000, Island of Hawaii, Hawaii

A combination of several meteorologic and topographic factors produced extreme rainfall over the eastern part of the island of Hawaii on November 1-2, 2000. Storm rainfall was concentrated in two distinct areas, the Waiakea and Kapapala areas, where maximum rainfall totals of 32.47 and 38.97 inches were recorded. Resultant flooding caused damages in excess of 70 million dollars, among the highest totals associated with flooding in the State's history. Storm rainfall had recurrence intervals that ranged from 10 years or less for maximum 1-hour totals to 100 years or more for maximum 24-hour totals As part of this study, peak flow and/or erosion data were collected at 41 sites. Analyses of these data indicated that peak discharges of record occurred at 6 of 12 sites where historic data were available. Peak flows with estimated recurrence intervals from 50 to over 100 years were recorded at 4 of 11 sites. Peak flows were poorly correlated with total storm rainfall. Critical rainfall durations associated with peak flows ranged from 1 to 12 hours and were about 3 hours at most sites. Rainfall-runoff computations and field observations indicated that infiltration-excess overland flow alone was not sufficient to have caused the observed flood peaks and therefore saturation-excess overland flow and subsurface flow probably contributed to peak flows at most sites Most hillslope erosion associated with the storm took place along or near the Kaoiki Pali in the Kapapala area. Hillslope erosion was predominately caused by overland flow.

Hawaii

Exchanges of Water between the Upper Floridan Aquifer and the Lower Suwannee and Lower Santa Fe Rivers, Florida

Exchanges of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and the Lower Suwannee River were evaluated using historic and current hydrologic data from the Lower Suwannee River Basin and adjacent areas that contribute ground-water flow to the lowest 76 miles of the Suwannee River and the lowest 28 miles of the Santa Fe River. These and other data were also used to develop a computer model that simulated the movement of water in the aquifer and river, and surface- and ground-water exchanges between these systems over a range of hydrologic conditions and a set of hypothetical water-use scenarios. Long-term data indicate that at least 15 percent of the average annual flow in the Suwannee River near Wilcox (at river mile 36) is derived from ground-water discharge to the Lower Suwannee and Lower Santa Fe Rivers. Model simulations of ground-water flow to this reach during water years 1998 and 1999 were similar to these model-independent estimates and indicated that ground-water discharge accounted for about 12 percent of the flow in the Lower Suwannee River during this time period. The simulated average ground-water discharge to the Lower Suwannee River downstream from the mouth of the Santa Fe River was about 2,000 cubic feet per second during water years 1998 and 1999. Simulated monthly average ground-water discharge rates to this reach ranged from about 1,500 to 3,200 cubic feet per second. These temporal variations in ground-water discharge were associated with climatic phenomena, including periods of strong influence by El Ni?o-associated flooding, and La Ni?a-associated drought. These variations showed a relatively consistent pattern in which the lowest rates of ground-water inflow occurred during periods of peak flood levels (when river levels rose faster than ground-water levels) and after periods of extended droughts (when ground-water storage was depleted). Conversely, the highest rates of ground-water inflow typically occurred during periods of receding levels that followed peak river levels.

Professional Paper

Hydrology, water quality, and water-supply potential of ponds at Hunter Army Airfield, Chatham County, Georgia, November 2008-July 2009

The hydrology, water quality, and water-supply potential of four ponds constructed to capture stormwater runoff at Hunter Army Airfield, Chatham County, Georgia, were evaluated as potential sources of supplemental irrigation supply. The ponds are, Oglethorpe Lake, Halstrum Pond, Wilson Gate Pond, and golf course pond. During the dry season, when irrigation demand is highest, ponds maintain water levels primarily from groundwater seepage. The availability of water from ponds during dry periods is controlled by the permeability of surficial deposits, precipitation and evaporation, and the volume of water stored in the pond. Net groundwater seepage (Gnet) was estimated using a water-budget approach that used onsite and nearby climatic and hydrologic data collected during November-December 2008 including precipitation, evaporation, pond stage, and discharge. Gnet was estimated at three of the four sites?Oglethorpe Lake, Halstrum Pond, and Wilson Gate Pond?during November-December 2008. Pond storage volume in the three ponds ranged from 5.34 to 12.8 million gallons. During November-December 2008, cumulative Gnet ranged from -5.74 gallons per minute (gal/min), indicating a net loss in pond volume, to 19 gal/min, indicating a net gain in pond volume. During several periods of stage recovery, daily Gnet rates were higher than the 2-month cumulative amount, with the highest rates of 178 to 424 gal/min following major rainfall events during limited periods. These high rates may include some contribution from stormwater runoff; more typical recovery rates were from 23 to 223 gal/min. A conservative estimate of the volume of water available for irrigation supply from three of the ponds was provided by computing the rate of depletion of pond volume for a variety of withdrawal rates based on long-term average July precipitation and evaporation and the lowest estimated Gnet rate at each pond. Withdrawal rates of 1,000, 500, and 250 gal/min were applied during an 8-hour daily pumping period. At a withdrawal rate of 1,000 gal/min, available pond volume would be depleted in 13-29 days, at a rate of 500 gal/min in 24-60 days, and at a rate of 250 gal/min, in 44 to 130 days. In each case, Halstrum Pond had the largest amount of available pond volume. The water-supply potential at the golf course pond was assessed by measuring flow downstream from the pond during February-July 2009, and examining historic stormflow measurements collected during 1979-87. Streamflow during both of these periods exceeded average daily (2005-2007) golf course water use. Assuming an 8-hour daily irrigation period, the average discharge rate required to meet Golf Course water demand during peak demand months of March-May and July-October exceeds 200 gal/min, with the greatest rate of 531 gal/min during July. During February-July 2009, daily average streamflow downstream of the golf course pond exceeded 238 gal/min 90 percent of the time. Based on samples collected for chemical analysis during April 2009, water from all four ponds at Hunter Army Airfield is fresh and suitable for irrigation supply, with chloride concentrations below 12 milligrams per liter. With the exception of iron in Wilson Gate Pond, constituent concentrations are below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency primary and secondary drinking water maximum contaminant levels. Water in Wilson Gate Pond contained an iron concentration of 419 mg/L, which exceeds the secondary maximum contaminant level of 300 micrograms per liter. Although not a health hazard, when the iron concentration exceeds 300 micrograms per liter, iron staining of sidewalks and plumbing fixtures may occur. Levels of dissolved oxygen were below the Georgia Environmental Protection Divison standard of 4 milligrams per liter for waters supporting warm-water fishes at deeper depths in Oglethorpe Lake, Wilson Gate Pond, and Halstrum Pond, and in the composite sample at the golf course pond.

Georgia