SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Colorado Climate”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Most pinyon-juniper woodland species distributions are projected to shrink rather than shift under climate change

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are among the most widespread ecosystems in rangelands of western North America, supporting diverse wildlife habitat, recreation, grazing, and cultural/spiritual enrichment. Anticipating future distribution shifts under changing climate will be critical to climate adaptation and conservation efforts in these ecosystems. Here, we evaluate drivers of PJ tree species’ distributions and project changes in response to future climate change. We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

USGS1988

Geohydrology, water quality, and preliminary simulations of ground-water flow of the alluvial aquifer in the upper Black Squirrel Creek basin, El Paso County, Colorado

The upper Black Squirrel Creek basin in eastern El Paso County, Colorado, is underlain by an alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers. The climate of the area is semiarid, and streamflow is irregular. The alluvial aquifer has supplied water to wells since the late 1800's when ranchers first pumped water from shallow wells to grow grass hay for livestock. Ground-water pumpage from the alluvial aquifer has increased since the mid-1950's, and water-level declines have been substantial; the bedrock aquifers virtually are undeveloped. Ground-water pumpage for domestic, stock, agricultural, and municipal uses has exceeded recharge for the past 25 years. The present extent of the effect of pumpage on the alluvial aquifer was evaluated, and a ground-water flow model was used to simulate the future effect of continued pumpage on the aquifer. Measured water-level declines from 1974 through 1984 were as much as 30 feet in an area north of Ellicott, Colorado. On the basis of the simulations, water-level declines from October 1984 to April 1999 north of Ellicott might be as much as 20 to 30 feet and as much as 1 to 10 feet in most of the aquifer. Flow from the bedrock aquifers to the alluvial aquifer may account for a substantial volume of the recharge to the alluvial aquifer. The ground-water flow models provided a means of evaluating the importance of ground-water evapotranspiration at various stages of aquifer development. Simulated ground-water evapotranspiration decreased from 1949 to 1984; prior to 1950 ground-water evapotranspiration was about 43.5 percent of the total outflow, but in 1984 it was less than 3 percent. Thirty-six ground-water samples were collected during 1984. Chemical analyses indicated that concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen generally were large. Samples from 5 of the 36 wells had concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen that exceeded drinking-water standards; these concentrations could pose a health threat toinfants. Water from the alluvial aquifer generally is of suitable quality forother uses.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Evidence against a Pleistocene desert refugium in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Aim The absence of Sonoran Desert plants in late Pleistocene-aged packrat middens has led to speculation that they survived glacial episodes either in refugia as intact associations (Clementsian community concept) or in dry microsites within chaparral or woodland according to individualistic species responses (Gleasonian community concept). To test these hypotheses, we developed a midden record from one likely refugium in north-eastern Baja California, Mexico. We also measured stomatal guard cell size in fossil leaves to further evaluate site-level individualistic responses of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush) ploidy races to climatic changes, including monsoonal history, over the late Quaternary. Location Sierra Juárez, Lower Colorado River Basin, north-eastern Baja California, Mexico. Methods Packrat ( Neotoma ) middens were collected from <300 m elevation on the eastern piedmont of the Sierra Juárez. Plant macrofossils and pollen were analysed from 50 dated middens, including determination of Larrea tridentata ploidy races. Results Pleistocene middens dating back to >55,000 cal. yr BP contained a mix of extralocal species characteristic of chaparral and pinyon–juniper–oak woodland, along with some modern desert elements. Many other desert taxa were absent during the Pleistocene, although most had arrived by the beginning of the Holocene 11,700 years ago. Main conclusions The assemblage of chaparral, woodland and select desert elements refutes the hypothesis that the Lower Colorado River Basin served as a late Pleistocene refugium for Sonoran Desert flora. The rapid arrival of most missing desert species by the early Holocene suggests they did not have far to migrate. They probably survived the last glacial period as smaller, disparate populations in dry microsites within chaparral and pinyon–juniper–oak woodlands. Diploid and tetraploid races of Larrea tridentata were present during the Pleistocene, but hexaploids did not appear until the mid-Holocene. This demonstrates that individualistic responses to climate involved genetic variants, in this case cytotypes, and not just species.

Baja California↗

USGS2018

Spatial decision‐support tools to guide restoration and seed‐sourcing in the Desert Southwest

Altered disturbance regimes and shifting climates have increased the need for large‐scale restoration treatments across the western United States. Seed‐sourcing remains a considerable challenge for revegetation efforts, particularly on public lands where policy favors the use of native, locally sourced plant material to avoid maladaptation. An important area of emphasis for public agencies has been the development of spatial tools to guide selection of genetically appropriate seed. When genetic information is not available, current seed transfer guidelines stipulate use of climate‐based or provisional seed transfer zones, which serve as a proxy for local adaptation by representing climate gradients to which plants are commonly adapted. Despite this guidance, little emphasis has been placed on identifying best practices for deriving provisional seed zones or on incorporating predictions from future climate. We describe a flexible, multivariate procedure for deriving such zones that incorporates a broad range of climatic characteristics while accounting for covariation among climate variables. With this approach, we derive provisional seed zones for four regions in the Desert Southwest (the Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Colorado Plateau, and Southern Great Basin). To facilitate future‐resilient restoration designs, we project each zone into its relative position in the future climate based on near‐term, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Although provisional seed zones are useful in a variety of contexts, there are also situations in which site‐specific guidance is preferable. To meet this need, we implement Climate Distance Mapper, an interactive decision‐support tool designed to help practitioners match seed sources with restoration sites through an accessible online interface. The application allows users to rank the suitability of seed sources anywhere on the landscape based on multivariate climate distances. Users can perform calculations for either the current or future climates. Additionally, tools are available to guide sample effort in regional‐scale seed collections or to partition the landscape into climate clusters representing suitable planting sites for different seed sources. Our tools and analytic procedures represent a flexible and reproducible framework for advancing native plant development programs in the Desert Southwest and beyond.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2022

RestoreNet: Collaboration to improve success of seed-based restoration on the Colorado Plateau

Dryland restoration faces challenges from heat, drought, and unpredictable rainfall, that are increasingly common and severe due to climate change. Land managers need information about successful seed-based restoration techniques and seed mixes that are not widely available to increase restoration success. Researchers from the US Geological Survey (USGS) and partner universities are working with land managers on a network of field trials called “RestoreNet”. RestoreNet tests seedbased restoration techniques and mixes across the southwestern US, including the Colorado Plateau, and shares findings and best practices with restoration practitioners.

Arizona↗

USGS1985

Effects of climate, vegetation, and soils on consumptive water use and ground-water recharge to the Central Midwest Regional aquifer system, mid-continent United States

The Central Midwest aquifer system, in parts of Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Texas, is a region of great hydrologic diversity. This study examines the relationships between climate, vegetation, and soil that affect consumptive water use and recharge to the groundwater system. Computations of potential recharge and consumptive water use were restricted to those areas where the aquifers under consideration were the immediate underlying system. The principal method of analysis utilized a soil moisture computer model. This model requires four types of input: (1) hydrologic properties of the soils, (2) vegetation types, (3) monthly precipitation, and (4) computed monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) values. The climatic factors that affect consumptive water use and recharge were extensively mapped for the study area. Nearly all the pertinent climatic elements confirmed the extreme diversity of the region. PET and those factors affecting it--solar radiation, temperature, and humidity--showed large regional differences; mean annual PET ranged from 36 to 70 inches in the study area. The seasonal climatic patterns indicate significant regional differences in those factors affecting seasonal consumptive water use and recharge. In the southern and western parts of the study area, consumptive water use occurred nearly the entire year; whereas, in northern parts it occurred primarily during the warm season (April through September). Results of the soil-moisture program, which added the effects of vegetation and the hydrologic characteristics of the soil to computed PET values, confirmed the significant regional differences in consumptive water use or actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential groundwater recharge. Under two different vegetative conditions--the 1978 conditions and pre-agricultural conditions consisting of only grassland and woodland--overall differences in recharge were minimal. Mean annual recharge under both conditions averaged slightly more than 4.5 inches for the entire study area, but ranged from less than 0.10 inches in eastern Colorado to slightly more than 15 inches in Arkansas.

Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Ne↗

USGS2020

Sand dunes, modern and ancient, on southern Colorado Plateau tribal lands, southwestern USA

A mantle of both active and stable aeolian sand covers approximately 34,000 km 2 of northern Arizona, western New Mexico and southern Utah on the southern Colorado Plateau. From west to east, these deposits can be subdivided into the Kaibab-Moenkopi dunes, Chinle Valley dunes, and Chaco dunes, all of which include relict, partly stable and mobile aeolian sand. Locally, these deposits have distinct compositional characteristics. An examination of previous studies into disparate aspects of Colorado Plateau dunes, taken in the context of local geology, Quaternary landscape history and geomorphic processes, provides new insights into interpretation of this regional aeolian sedimentary record. Additional new data about the characteristics of the deposits, and an assessment of present-day climatic conditions enhances our ability to interpret the relative influences of ecosystem and geomorphologic processes with climate variability that continue to influence both new dune formation and reactivation of older deposits. Taken as a whole, the data emphasizes the role that local landscape conditions and history play in providing the context for correctly interpreting aeolian activity and depositional environments, and whether sediment supply or climate play a dominant role in sand dune formation. This is particularly true in the Little Colorado River Valley of northeastern Arizona, where Quaternary volcanic activity has significantly influenced the local landscape processes, deposit characteristics, and dune paleohistory.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Testing the apparent resistance of three dominant plants to chronic drought on the Colorado Plateau

Many drylands, including the south-western United States, are projected to become more water-limited as these regions become warmer and drier with climate change. Such chronic drought may push individual species or plant functional types beyond key thresholds leading to reduced growth or even mortality. Indeed, recent observational and experimental evidence from the Colorado Plateau suggests that C 3 grasses are the most vulnerable to chronic drought, while C 4 grasses and C 3 shrubs appear to have greater resistance. The effects of chronic, or press-drought are predicted to begin at the physiological level and translate up to higher hierarchical levels. To date, the drought resistance of C 4 grasses and C 3 shrubs in this region has been only evaluated at the community level and thus we lack information on whether there are sensitivities to drought at lower hierarchical levels. In this study, we tested the apparent drought resistance of three dominant species ( Pleuraphis jamesii , a C 4 rhizomatous grass; Coleogyne ramosissima , a C 3 drought-deciduous shrub; and Ephedra viridis , a C 3 evergreen shrub) to an ongoing experimental press-drought (-35% precipitation) by comparing individual-level responses (ecophysiology and growth dynamics) to community-level responses (plant cover). For all three species, we observed consistent responses across all hierarchical levels: P. jamesii was sensitive to drought across all measured variables, while the shrubs C. ramosissima and E. viridis had little to no responses to the experimental press-drought at any given level. Synthesis . Our findings suggest that the apparent drought resistance at higher hierarchical levels, such as cover, may serve as good proxies for lower-level responses. Furthermore, it appears the shrubs are avoiding drought, possibly by utilizing moisture at deeper soil layers, while the grasses are limited to shallower layers and must endure the drought conditions. Give this differential sensitivity to drought, a future with less precipitation and higher temperatures may increase the dominance of shrubs on the Colorado Plateau, as grasses succumb to chronic water stress.

Utah↗

USGS2009

Relations between hydrology and velocity of a continuously moving landslide-evidence of pore-pressure feedback regulating landslide motion?

We measured displacement, pore-water pressure, and climatic conditions for 3 years at the continuously moving Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA. The landslide accelerated when pore-water pressure increased within the landslide body, but this occurred as pore-water pressure decreased along the landslide margin. The decrease probably occurred in response to shear-induced soil dilation at rates greater than pore-pressure diffusion and likely increased resistance to shear displacement and resulted in landslide deceleration. This dilative strengthening has been experimentally observed and explained theoretically, but not previously identified during field studies. Although landslide displacement should have exceeded that required to achieve critical-state density of shear boundaries, observed relocation of these boundaries indicates that shearing is episodic at fixed locations, so it permits renewed dilative strengthening when "fresh" soil is sheared. Thus, dilatant strengthening may be a considerable mechanism controlling landslide velocity, even for landslides that have continuously moved great distances. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

Landslides↗

USGS2016

Evaluating Landsat 8 evapotranspiration for water use mapping in the Colorado River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) mapping at the Landsat spatial resolution (100 m) is essential to fully understand water use and water availability at the field scale. Water use estimates in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), which has diverse ecosystems and complex hydro-climatic regions, will be helpful to water planners and managers. Availability of Landsat 8 images, starting in 2013, provides the opportunity to map ET in the CRB to assess spatial distribution and patterns of water use. The Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model was used with 528 Landsat 8 images to create seamless monthly and annual ET estimates at the inherent 100 m thermal band resolution. Annual ET values were summarized by land use/land cover classes. Croplands were the largest consumer of “blue” water while shrublands consumed the most “green” water. Validation using eddy covariance (EC) flux towers and water balance approaches showed good accuracy levels with R 2 ranging from 0.74 to 0.95 and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient ranging from 0.66 to 0.91. The root mean square error (and percent bias) ranged from 0.48 mm (13%) to 0.60 mm (22%) for daily (days of satellite overpass) ET and from 7.75 mm (2%) to 13.04 mm (35%) for monthly ET. The spatial and temporal distribution of ET indicates the utility of Landsat 8 for providing important information about ET dynamics across the landscape. Annual crop water use was estimated for five selected irrigation districts in the Lower CRB where annual ET per district ranged between 681 mm to 772 mm. Annual ET by crop type over the Maricopa Stanfield irrigation district ranged from a low of 384 mm for durum wheat to a high of 990 mm for alfalfa fields. A rainfall analysis over the five districts suggested that, on average, 69% of the annual ET was met by irrigation. Although the enhanced cloud-masking capability of Landsat 8 based on the cirrus band and utilization of the Fmask algorithm improved the removal of contaminated pixels, the ability to reliably estimate ET over clouded areas remains an important challenge. Overall, the performance of Landsat 8 based ET compared to available EC datasets and water balance estimates for a complex basin such as the CRB demonstrates the potential of using Landsat 8 for annual water use estimation at a national scale. Future efforts will focus on (a) use of consistent methodology across years, (b) integration of multiple sensors to maximize images used, and (c) employing cloud-computing platforms for large scale processing capabilities.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2021

Streamflow response to potential changes in climate in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

The Rio Grande is a vital water source for the southwestern States of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas and for northern Mexico. The river serves as the primary source of water for irrigation in the region, has many environmental and recreational uses, and is used by more than 13 million people including those in the Cities of Albuquerque and Las Cruces, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. However, concern is growing over the increasing gap between water supply and demand in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. As populations increase and agricultural crop patterns change, demands for water are increasing, at the same time the region is undergoing a decrease in supply due to drought and climate change. Quantifying the impact of projected climate change on Rio Grande streamflow is difficult because of numerous anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic system. The conveyance and use of surface water in the Upper Rio Grande Basin are achieved through an engineered system of reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation canals designed to deliver water to agricultural, municipal, and industrial users, who greatly reduce the cumulative volume of water in the river. For example, streamflow at Fort Quitman, Tex., the southernmost point of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, has undergone a 95-percent reduction in flow relative to the river’s native state, and some stretches of the river can intermittently go dry. Because streamflow in the basin is highly altered, disentangling the impacts of climate change and changes in streamflow due to anthropogenic influences such as dams, diversions, and other forms of water use is difficult. Therefore, a model of naturalized flow was developed to determine to what degree changes in streamflow can be attributed to potential changes in future temperature and precipitation without quantifying future changes in anthropogenic influences. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included the development and calibration of a watershed model of the Upper Rio Grande Basin using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate naturalized streamflow conditions for historical and future time periods.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2002

Valley-fill alluviation during the Little Ice Age (ca. A.D. 1400-1880), Paria River basin and southern Colorado Plateau, United States

Valley-fill alluvium deposited from ca. A.D. 1400 to 1880 is widespread in tributaries of the Paria River and is largely coincident with the Little Ice Age epoch of global climate variability. Previous work showed that alluvium of this age is a mappable stratigraphic unit in many of the larger alluvial valleys of the southern Colorado Plateau. The alluvium is bounded by two disconformities resulting from prehistoric and historic arroyo cutting at ca. A.D. 1200–1400 and 1860–1910, respectively. The fill forms a terrace in the axial valleys of major through-flowing streams. This terrace and underlying deposits are continuous and interfinger with sediment in numerous small tributary valleys that head at the base of hillslopes of sparsely vegetated, weakly consolidated bedrock, suggesting that eroded bedrock was an important source of alluvium along with in-channel and other sources. Paleoclimatic and high-resolution paleoflood studies indicate that valley-fill alluviation occurred during a long-term decrease in the frequency of large, destructive floods. Aggradation of the valleys ended about A.D. 1880, if not two decades earlier, with the beginning of historic arroyo cutting. This shift from deposition to valley entrenchment near the close of the Little Ice Age generally coincided with the beginning of an episode of the largest floods in the preceding 400–500 yr, which was probably caused by an increased recurrence and intensity of flood-producing El Niño events beginning at ca. A.D. 1870.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Urban landcover differentially drives day and nighttime air temperature across a semi-arid city

Semi-arid urban environments are undergoing an increase in both average air temperatures and in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. Within cities, different composition and densities of urban landcovers (ULC) influence local air temperatures, either mitigating or increasing heat. Currently, understanding how combinations of ULC influence air temperature at the block to neighborhood scale is necessary for heat mitigation plans, and yet limited due to the complexities integrating high-resolution ULC with spatial and temporally high-resolution microclimate data. We quantify how ULC influences air temperature at 60 m resolution for day and nighttime climate normals and extreme heat conditions by integrating microclimate sensor data sensor and high-resolution (1 m 2 ) ULC for Denver, Colorado's urban core. We derive ULC drivers of air temperature using a structural equation model, then use a random forest algorithm to predict air temperatures for 30-year climate normals and an extreme heat condition. We find that, in conjunction with other ULC, urban tree canopy reduces daytime air temperatures (−0.026 °C per % cover), and the combination of impervious surfaces and buildings increases daytime air temperature (0.021 °C per % cover). Compared to daytime hours, nighttime irrigated turf temperature cooling effects are increased from being non-significant to −0.022 °C per % cover, while tree canopy effects are reduced from −0.026 °C during the day to −0.016 °C at night. Overall, ULC drives ~17% and 25% of local air temperature during the day and night, respectively. ULC influence on daytime air temperatures is altered in extreme heat events, both depending on the ULC type and time of day. Our findings inform urban planners seeking to identify potential hot and cool spots within a semi-arid city and mitigate high urban air temperatures through using ULC within larger urban climate mitigation strategies.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 1: The Southern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande Regions

Maize is the New World's preeminent grain crop and it provided the economic basis for human culture in many regions within the Americas. To flourish, maize needs water, sunlight (heat), and nutrients (e. g., nitrogen). In this paper, climate and soil chemistry data are used to evaluate the potential for dryland (rainon-field) agriculture in the semiarid southeastern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande regions. Processes that impact maize agriculture such as nitrogen mineralization, infiltration of precipitation, bare soil evaporation, and transpiration are discussed and evaluated. Most of the study area, excepting high-elevation regions, receives sufficient solar radiation to grow maize. The salinities of subsurface soils in the central San Juan Basin are very high and their nitrogen concentrations are very low. In addition, soils of the central San Juan Basin are characterized by pH values that exceed 8.0, which limit the availability of both nitrogen and phosphorous. In general, the San Juan Basin, including Chaco Canyon, is the least promising part of the study area in terms of dryland farming. Calculations of field life, using values of organic nitrogen for the upper 50 cm of soil in the study area, indicate that most of the study area could not support a 10-bushel/acre crop of maize. The concepts, methods, and calculations used to quantify maize productivity in this study are applicable to maize cultivation in other environmental settings across the Americas. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory↗

USGS2023

Matching existing and future native plant materials to disturbance-driven restoration needs

Assessing the appropriateness of existing native plant materials can both determine which seed source to utilize for restoration projects, and identify locations for which new seed sources need to be developed. Here, we demonstrate an approach to meet these needs. This method identifies areas of high restoration need based on disturbance patterns, assesses the regional suitability of existing native plant materials based on climate similarity, and highlights geographic (and climatic) gaps where existing materials are likely unsuitable and where plant material development projects can be prioritized. We examined 12 high priority restoration species across the Colorado Plateau, a 38-million-ha region of the Intermountain West, United States to test our methodological pipeline. Fifty-four percent of the Colorado Plateau is disturbed by livestock grazing, wildfires that have burned in the past 20 years, or energy production from oil and gas wells, natural gas pipelines, and coal mines. Of the 28 commercially available plant materials for six of the focal species, only 3 have climate similarity that encompass more than 50% of the species modeled habitat on the Colorado Plateau. Across all commercial materials, most species (10 of 12) do not have any suitable plant material for 70% or more of their geographic range on the Colorado Plateau. Of those areas identified as not having any suitable plant materials, 47–56% are also disturbed. Our method provides usable, flexible protocols and spatially referenced data sources for optimizing the planning of new native plant materials in any region where restoration is needed and spatial data are available.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2006

Carbon and nitrogen fixation differ between successional stages of biological soil crusts in the Colorado Plateau and Chihuahuan Desert

Biological soil crusts (cyanobacteria, mosses and lichens collectively) perform essential ecosystem services, including carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fixation. Climate and land-use change are converting later successional soil crusts to early successional soil crusts with lower C and N fixation rates. To quantify the effect of such conversions on C and N dynamics in desert ecosystems we seasonally measured diurnal fixation rates in different biological soil crusts. We classified plots on the Colorado Plateau (Canyonlands) and Chihuahuan Desert (Jornada) as early (Microcoleus) or later successional (Nostoc/Scytonema or Placidium/Collema) and measured photosynthesis (Pn), nitrogenase activity (NA), and chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) on metabolically active (moist) soil crusts. Later successional crusts typically had greater Pn, averaging 1.2-1.3-fold higher daily C fixation in Canyonlands and 2.4-2.8-fold higher in the Jornada. Later successional crusts also had greater NA, averaging 1.3-7.5-fold higher daily N fixation in Canyonlands and 1.3-25.0-fold higher in the Jornada. Mean daily Fv/Fm was also greater in later successional Canyonlands crusts during winter, and Jornada crusts during all seasons except summer. Together these findings indicate conversion of soil crusts back to early successional stages results in large reductions of C and N inputs into these ecosystems.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Remote sensing of field-scale irrigation withdrawals in the central Ogallala aquifer region

For agricultural areas facing water scarcity, sustainable water use policy relies on irrigation information that is timely and at a high resolution, but existing publicly available water use data are often insufficient for monitoring compliance or understanding the influence of policy on individual farmer decisions. This study attempts to fill this data gap by using remote sensing to map annual irrigation quantity at the field-scale within the central Ogallala aquifer region of the United States. We compiled in situ annual irrigation volume data at the field scale in the Republican River Basin of Colorado for 2015–2018 and at the Public Land Survey System (PLSS) section scale in western Kansas for 2000–2016, which served as reference data in random forest models that relied on Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) along with maps of irrigated area, Landsat spectral indices, climate, soils, and derived hydrologic variables. The models explained 87% of the variability in irrigation volume in Colorado and 75% in Kansas, but accuracy declined when transferring the models in spatial cross-validation (Colorado R 2 =0.81; Kansas R 2 =0.51) and temporal cross-validation (Colorado R 2 =0.82; Kansas R 2 =0.68). Predicted annual totals of irrigation volume in western Kansas had a mean absolute error of 11.9%, which was slightly higher than the average annual change of 11%. Use of predicted irrigation maps also lead to an underestimated effect size for a water use restriction policy in Kansas. These results indicate that field- and section-scale irrigation can be mapped with reasonable accuracy within a region and time period that has adequate sample data, but that methods may need to be improved for applying the models more broadly in areas that lack extensive in situ irrigation data to support further research on water use and aid in structuring policy.

Colorado Kansas↗