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Results for “Climate Risk Management”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Detecting annual and seasonal changes in a sagebrush ecosystem with remote sensing-derived continuous fields

Climate change may represent the greatest future risk to the sagebrush ecosystem. Improved ways to quantify and monitor gradual change resulting from climate influences in this ecosystem are vital to its future management. For this research, the change over time of five continuous field cover components including bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub were measured on the ground and by satellite across six seasons and four years. Ground-measured litter and herbaceous cover exhibited the highest variation annually and herbaceous cover the highest variation seasonally. Correlation of ground measurements to corresponding remote-sensing predictions indicated that annual predictions tracked ground measurements more closely than seasonal ones, and QuickBird predictions tracked ground measurements more closely than Landsat predictions. When annual linear slope values from ground plots and sensor predictions were correlated by component, the direction of ground-measured change was tracked better with QuickBird components than with Landsat components. Component predictions were correlated to annual and seasonal DAYMET precipitation. QuickBird components on average had the best response to precipitation patterns, followed by Landsat components. Overall, these results demonstrate the ability of sagebrush ecosystem components as predicted by regression trees to incrementally measure changing components of a sagebrush ecosystem.

Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Minimizing extinction risk in the face of uncertainty: Developing conservation strategies for 2 rapidly declining forest bird species on Kaua‘i Island

Many species around the world are declining precipitously as a result of multiple threats and changing climate. Managers tasked with protecting species often face difficult decisions in regard to identifying which threats should be addressed, given limited resources and uncertainty in the success of any identified management action. On Kaua‘i Island, Hawai‘i, USA, forest bird species have experienced accelerated declines over the last 20 years, and 2 species, the ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), are now at the brink of extinction. Both species face multiple threats, and managers face difficult decisions on whether to mitigate threats in the wild, establish a captive population as insurance against extinction, translocate birds to novel locations, or some combination of these actions. Each set of actions (alternatives) would require substantial resources with considerable uncertainty in success. In 2014, we brought together 14 experts representing biologists and managers familiar with the species and island to develop a conservation strategy under a structured decision making (SDM) framework, an approach for making complex decisions under uncertainty. The group's challenge was to identify a set of alternatives that reduces the risk of extinction, set the foundation for one or more genetically viable, reproducing, stable to increasing populations in 10 years, and promote conditions for long-term persistence in the wild. Multiple alternatives were evaluated, via expert judgement, in terms of the probability they would achieve the objectives concerning immediate extinction risk, near-term viability, and adequacy of habitat. Factors that might impede the success of each action were also evaluated. The process identified the establishment of a captive population and efforts to stabilize the existing wild population as the approach most likely to meet the objectives of preventing imminent extinction and ensuring long-term viability.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Hydroclimatic and land-use factors affecting peak streamflow in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗
USGS2023

A review of lethal thermal tolerance among freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionida) within the North American faunal region

Freshwater mussels of the order Unionida are currently one of the most imperiled groups of organisms in the North American faunal region. Accurate risk assessments and development of effective management strategies for remaining populations require knowledge of thermal limits in the face of increasing surface water temperature due to climate change and various anthropogenic factors. We conducted a systematic literature review of unionid mussels (order Unionida, families Margaritiferidae and Unionidae) in the North American faunal region to (1) summarize lethal thermal tolerance data by life stage and taxonomy, (2) discuss ecological and climate change implications of existing lethal tolerance data, and (3) identify needs for future research. We identified lethal tolerance estimates for only 28 of 302 species in the families Unionidae and Margaritiferidae. The mean acute median lethal temperatures were 32.8 °C for glochidia (19 species), 35.0 °C for juveniles (13 species), and 36.3 °C for adults (4 species). Generally, glochidia were less tolerant than juveniles or adults of the same species—but there were several exceptions. Generally, Amblemini had the highest acute and chronic thermal tolerance of all tribes followed by Anodontini, Pleurobemini, Lampsilini, and Quadrilini. Acclimation temperature affected lethal tolerance endpoints in less than half (52 of 145) of comparisons within species. Lethal tolerance data for additional species, combined with a comprehensive database of in situ surface water temperatures, would be useful for modeling the frequency and duration of lethal limit exceedance in North America and identifying populations currently living at or near their upper lethal limits.

Environmental Reviews↗
USGS2021

Perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization for climate sensitive species in the Hawaiian Islands

Conservation actions to safeguard climate change vulnerable species may not be utilized due to a variety of perceived barriers. Assisted colonization, the intentional movement and release of an organism outside its historical range, is one tool available for species predicted to lose habitat under future climate change scenarios, particularly for single island or single mountain range endemic species. Despite the existence of policies that allow for this action, to date, assisted colonization has rarely been utilized for species of conservation concern in the Hawaiian Islands. Given the potential for climate driven biodiversity loss, the Hawaiian Islands are a prime location for the consideration of adaptation strategies. We used first-person interviews with conservation decision makers, managers, and scientists who work with endangered species in the Hawaiian Islands to identify perceived barriers to the use of assisted colonization. We found that assisted colonization was often not considered or utilized due to a lack of expertize with translocations; ecological risk and uncertainty, economic constraints, concerns regarding policies and permitting, concerns with public perception, and institutional resistance. Therefore, conservation planners may benefit from decision tools that integrate risk and uncertainty into decision models, and compare potential outcomes among conservation actions under consideration, including assisted colonization. Within a decision framework that addresses concerns, all conservation actions for climate sensitive species, including assisted colonization, may be considered in a timely manner.

Hawaii↗
USGS2008

Amount and Percentage of Current Societal Assets in Areas on Kaua'i, Hawai'i, within the 1992 Hurricane 'Iniki Storm-Surge Inundation Zone

The Pacific Risk Management 'Ohana (PRiMO) is a network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development, delivery, and communication of risk management-related information, products, and services across the Pacific Ocean (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Services Center, 2008). One PRiMO-related project is the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) initiative, which seeks to improve the understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity ('storminess') within the Pacific region and to develop a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies, and other decision-makers (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008a). One of the PRICIP information products is a historical storm 'event anatomy', which includes a summary of sector-specific socioeconomic impacts associated with a particular event, as well as information about the event and its climatological context. The intent of an event anatomy is to convey the causes of an extreme storm event and the associated impacts in a format that users can understand. The event anatomies also are intended to familiarize users with the in-place and remotely sensed products typically employed to track and forecast weather and climate. The first event anatomy developed as a prototype and hosted on the PRICIP portal is for Hurricane 'Iniki (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Integrated Data and Environmental Applications Center, 2008b), a Category 3-4 hurricane that made landfall on the south coast of Kaua'i Island on September 11, 1992, with estimated maximum sustained winds of more than 140 mph and gusts as high as 175 mph. Storm-surge inundation occurred on the southern and northeastern coast of Kaua'i Island. In an effort to increase the amount of available information on the Hurricane 'Iniki event anatomy of the PRICIP portal, representatives from the NOAA NCDC IDEA Center contacted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2007 for assistance in determining what current societal assets are in areas that were inundated by storm surge during Hurricane 'Iniki in 1992. This report contains data summarizing the amount and percentage of current societal assets on Kaua'i Island, Hawai'i, that exist in the historic Hurricane 'Iniki storm-surge inundation zone. Coupled with an array of information on the socioeconomic impacts of Hurricane 'Iniki and distributed through the PRICIP portal, the results of this effort will help managers and the general public to understand the current risks posed by extreme storms in the Pacific Basin.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Mercury in western North America: A synthesis of environmental contamination, fluxes, bioaccumulation, and risk to fish and wildlife

Western North America is a region defined by extreme gradients in geomorphology and climate, which support a diverse array of ecological communities and natural resources. The region also has extreme gradients in mercury (Hg) contamination due to a broad distribution of inorganic Hg sources. These diverse Hg sources and a varied landscape create a unique and complex mosaic of ecological risk from Hg impairment associated with differential methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation. Understanding the landscape-scale variation in the magnitude and relative importance of processes associated with Hg transport, methylation, and MeHg bioaccumulation requires a multidisciplinary synthesis that transcends small-scale variability. The Western North America Mercury Synthesis compiled, analyzed, and interpreted spatial and temporal patterns and drivers of Hg and MeHg in air, soil, vegetation, sediments, fish, and wildlife across western North America. This collaboration evaluated the potential risk from Hg to fish, and wildlife health, human exposure, and examined resource management activities that influenced the risk of Hg contamination. This paper integrates the key information presented across the individual papers that comprise the synthesis. The compiled information indicates that Hg contamination is widespread, but heterogeneous, across western North America. The storage and transport of inorganic Hg across landscape gradients are largely regulated by climate and land-cover factors such as plant productivity and precipitation. Importantly, there was a striking lack of concordance between pools and sources of inorganic Hg, and MeHg in aquatic food webs. Additionally, water management had a widespread influence on MeHg bioaccumulation in aquatic ecosystems, whereas mining impacts where relatively localized. These results highlight the decoupling of inorganic Hg sources with MeHg production and bioaccumulation. Together the findings indicate that developing efforts to control MeHg production in the West may be particularly beneficial for reducing food web exposure instead of efforts to simply control inorganic Hg sources.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2024

Incorporating life history diversity in an integrated population model to inform viability analysis

Life history diversity can significantly affect population dynamics and effects of management actions. For instance, variation in individual responses to environmental variability can reduce extirpation risk to populations, as the portfolio effect dampens temporal variability in abundance. Moreover, differences in habitat use may cause individuals to respond differently to habitat management and climate variability. To explore the role of life history diversity in population trajectories, population models need to incorporate within-population variation. Integrated population modeling (IPM) is a population modeling approach that offers several advantages for sharing information and propagating uncertainty across datasets. In this study, we developed an IPM for an endangered population of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA, that accounts for diversity in juvenile life histories, spawning location, and return age. Our analysis revealed that diversity in the age of juvenile emigration from natal streams had a portfolio effect, resulting in a 20% reduction in year-to-year variability in adult abundance in population projections. Our population viability analysis suggests that management interventions may be necessary to meet recovery goals, and our model should be useful for simulating the outcomes of proposed actions.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Climate-change impacts on ecological systems: Introduction to a US assessment

As part of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment, over 60 subject‐matter experts from government agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector assessed the current and projected impacts of climate change on ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Here, we introduce and provide context for the papers included in this Special Issue, drawing upon the key findings from separate assessments of biodiversity, ecosystem structure and function, ecosystem services, climate‐change impacts in the context of other stressors, and societal responses to change (ie climate adaptation). We also explain the assessment process and show how the current state of knowledge can be used to identify risks and guide future research and management initiatives.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2014

Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges

Mega-fires are often defined according to their size and intensity but are more accurately described by their socioeconomic impacts. Three factors – climate change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the “mega-fire triangle” – likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire intensity while conserving ecosystems. Crown-fire-adapted ecosystems are likely at higher risk of frequent mega-fires as a result of climate change, as compared with other ecosystems once subject to frequent less severe fires. Fire and forest managers should recognize that mega-fires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their undesired impacts.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2019

Looking to the Future: Key points for sustainable management of Northern Great Plains grasslands

The grasslands of the northern Great Plains region of North America are considered endangered ecosystems and priority conservation areas yet have great ecological and economic importance. Grasslands in the northern Great Plains (referred to as NGP from this point) are no longer self-regulating adaptive systems. The challenges to these grasslands are widespread and serious (e.g., climate change, invasive species, fragmentation, altered disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic chemical loads). Because the challenges facing the region are dynamic, complex, and persistent, a paradigm shift in how we approach restoration and management of the grasslands in the northern Great Plains is imperative. The goal of this paper is to highlight 4 key points for land managers and restoration practitioners to consider when planning management or restoration actions. First, we discuss the appropriateness of using historical fidelity as a restoration or management target because of changing climate, widespread pervasiveness of invasive species, the high level of fragmentation, and altered disturbance regimes. Second, we highlight ecosystem resilience and long-term population persistence as alternative targets. Third, because the NGP is so heavily impacted with anthropogenic chemical loading, we discuss the risks of ecological traps and extinction debt. Finally, we highlight the importance of using adaptive management and having patience during restoration and management. Consideration of these 4 points will help management and restoration of grasslands move toward a more successful and sustainable future. Although we specifically focus on the northern Great Plains of North America, these same issues and considerations apply to grasslands globally as well as many other ecosystems.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2024

A habitat-centered framework for wildlife climate change vulnerability assessments: Application to Gunnison sage-grouse

The persistence of threatened wildlife species depends on successful conservation and restoration of habitats, but climate change and other stressors make these tasks increasingly challenging. Applying climate change vulnerability analyses to contemporary wildlife management can be difficult because most analyses predict direct effects of future climate on wildlife species at broad geographic scales, rather than assessing their habitats at local scales (<1 km) that correspond to site-specific habitat management actions. We present a framework that synthesizes vegetation-focused vulnerability assessments to assess multiple effects on wildlife species' diverse habitat needs, providing a scenario-driven climate vulnerability assessment that maps differences in vulnerability of populations within a species' range. Our flexible habitat-centered synthesis approach leverages available spatial datasets describing projected exposure to vegetation changes due to climate change and other potentially synergistic stressors, reclassifies and weights them based on available estimates of species' sensitivity to these changes, and recombines them to create <1-km resolution maps of overall species vulnerability and threat-specific habitat vulnerability . To demonstrate its potential to guide decision-making, we applied this approach to the Gunnison sage-grouse ( Centrocercus minimus ), a federally threatened habitat specialist that depends on sagebrush and mesic habitats that are imperiled by climate change. We mapped six threats forecasted out to the year 2070: direct effects of climate on (1) sagebrush cover loss and (2) mesic habitat drying, indirect changes in invasion risk from (3) pinyon–juniper conifers and (4) annual grasses, and potentially synergistic risk of (5) development and (6) wildfire. We then assessed species vulnerability for each of the eight extant populations under three climate scenarios: Optimistic, Continuation, and Pessimistic. We found that the extent of cumulative species vulnerability due to multiple habitat changes was far greater than the extent of any single habitat vulnerability. Over 75% of critical habitats were at risk under the Pessimistic scenario, and nearly two thirds of habitats were at high risk for three or more threats. Invasive species were the most widespread threat, highlighting the importance of indirect effects of climate change. We illustrate how our approach can be applied to the existing management planning strategies to better prioritize conservation of habitats for the persistence of threatened species.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2014

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species&rsquo; distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994&ndash;1999 and 2003&ndash;2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Ecology↗
USGS2001

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program, 2001

Ground water is among the Nation's most important natural resources. It provides drinking water to urban and rural communities, supports irrigation and industry, sustains the flow of streams and rivers, and maintains riparian and wetland ecosystems. In many areas of the Nation, the future sustainability of ground-water resources is at risk from over use and contamination. Because ground-water systems typically respond slowly to human actions and climate variability, a long-term perspective is needed to manage this valuable resource. The U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Resources Program provides regional evaluations, fundamental data, and predictive tools to help assure the sustainability of our Nation's ground-water resources.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2016

Urban infrastructure and water management—Science capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey

Managing the urban-water cycle has increasingly become a challenge for water-resources planners and regulators faced with the problem of providing clean drinking water to urban residents. Sanitary and combined sanitary and storm sewer networks convey wastewater to centralized treatment plants. Impervious surfaces, which include roads, parking lots, and buildings, increase stormwater runoff and the efficiency by which runoff is conveyed to nearby stream channels; therefore, impervious surfaces increase the risk of urban flooding and alteration of natural ecosystems. These challenges will increase with the expansion of urban centers and the probable effects of climate change on precipitation patterns. Understanding the urban-water cycle is critical to effectively manage water resources and to protect people, infrastructure, and urban-stream ecosystems. As a leader in water-supply, wastewater, and stormwater assessments, the U.S. Geological Survey has the expertise and resources needed to monitor, model, and interpret data related to the urban-water cycle and thereby enable water-resources managers to make informed decisions.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2026

A site prioritization tool for invasive species management: Integrating diverse spatial data to improve decision making

Resource managers are tasked with protecting natural areas from invasive species with limited resources. Further, invasive management goals can vary greatly based on different management priorities specific to management agencies or taxa of interest. The site prioritization tool for invasive species management addresses these challenges by creating a platform to view and combine diverse spatial data layers to estimate cumulative invasion risk based on user-specific needs. For this tool, we developed a human transport risk layer, estimating invasion risk based on proximity to human population centers and transportation corridors, and created maps of non-native species richness across the conterminous United States. The tool also includes spatial layers showing projected changes in key climate variables through the end of the century to identify areas where invasion risk may shift. Users can explore these layers to prioritize sites based on the invasive taxa of interest, likely invasion pathways, and disturbances that may elevate invasion risk. This interactive tool will allow managers to make the spatial comparisons needed to focus efforts on areas that are highly susceptible to invasion and efficiently target monitoring and suppression efforts.

Ecological Informatics↗
USGS2009

Giant Constrictors: Biological and Management Profiles and an Establishment Risk Assessment for Nine Large Species of Pythons, Anacondas, and the Boa Constrictor

Giant Constrictors: Biological and Management Profiles and an Establishment Risk Assessment for Nine Large Species of Pythons, Anacondas, and the Boa Constrictor, estimates the ecological risks associated with colonization of the United States by nine large constrictors. The nine include the world's four largest snake species (Green Anaconda, Eunectes murinus; Indian or Burmese Python, Python molurus; Northern African Python, Python sebae; and Reticulated Python, Broghammerus reticulatus), the Boa Constrictor (Boa constrictor), and four species that are ecologically or visually similar to one of the above (Southern African Python, Python natalensis; Yellow Anaconda, Eunectes notaeus; DeSchauensee's Anaconda, Eunectes deschauenseei; and Beni Anaconda, Eunectes beniensis). At present, the only probable pathway by which these species would become established in the United States is the pet trade. Although importation for the pet trade involves some risk that these animals could become established as exotic or invasive species, it does not guarantee such establishment. Federal regulators have the task of appraising the importation risks and balancing those risks against economic, social, and ecological benefits associated with the importation. The risk assessment quantifies only the ecological risks, recognizing that ecosystem processes are complex and only poorly understood. The risk assessment enumerates the types of economic impacts that may be experienced, but leaves quantification of economic costs to subsequent studies. Primary factors considered in judging the risk of establishment were: (1) history of establishment in other countries, (2) number of each species in commerce, (3) suitability of U.S. climates for each species, and (4) natural history traits, such as reproductive rate and dispersal ability, that influence the probability of establishment, spread, and impact. In addition, the risk assessment reviews all management tools for control of invasive giant constrictor populations. There is great uncertainty about many aspects of the risk assessment; the level of uncertainty is estimated separately for each risk component. Overall risk was judged to be high for five of the giant constrictors studied, and medium for the other four species. Because all nine species shared a large number of natural history traits that promote invasiveness or impede population control, none of the species was judged to be of low risk.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Evolutionary dynamics inform management interventions of a hanging garden obligate, Carex specuicola

Uncovering the historical and contemporary processes shaping rare species with complex distributions is of growing importance due to threats such as habitat destruction and climate change. Species restricted to specialized, patchy habitat may persist by virtue of life history characteristics facilitating ongoing gene flow and dispersal, but they could also reflect the remnants of formerly widespread, suitable habitat that existed during past climate regimes. If formerly widespread species did not rely upon traits facilitating high dispersibility to persist, contemporary populations could be at high risk of extirpation or extinction. Fortunately, genomic investigations provide an opportunity to illuminate such alternative scenarios while simultaneously offering guidance for future management interventions. Herein, we test the role of these mechanisms in shaping patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation across a highly restricted and rare ecosystem: desert hanging gardens. We focus on Carex specuicola (Cyperaceae), a hanging garden obligate narrowly distributed in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States that is listed as Threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act. Population structure and diversity analyses reveal that hanging garden populations are shaped by strong genetic drift, but that individuals in gardens are occasionally more closely related to individuals at other gardens than to individuals within the same garden. Similarly, gardens separated by long geographic distances may contain individuals that are more closely related compared to individuals in gardens separated by short geographic distances. Demographic modeling supports historical gene flow between some contemporary garden pairs, which is corroborated by low estimates of inbreeding coefficients and recent divergence times. As such, multiple lines of evidence support dispersal and gene flow across C. specuicola populations at both small and large spatial scales, indicating that even if C. specuicola was formerly more widespread, it may be well suited to persist in hanging gardens so long as suitable habitat remains available. Analyses like those demonstrated herein may be broadly applicable for understanding the short- and long-term evolutionary processes influencing rare species, and especially those having complex distributions across heterogeneous landscapes.

Arizona, Utah↗