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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Deep-sea ostracode species diversity: Response to late Quaternary climate change

Late Quaternary ostracode assemblages from the North Atlantic Ocean were studied to establish the effect of climatic changes of the past 210,000 yr (marine oxygen isotope stages 7–1) on deep-sea benthic biodiversity and faunal composition. Two-hundred and twenty five samples from the Chain 82-24 Core 4PC (41°43′N, 32°51′W, 3427 m water depth) on the western Mid-Atlantic Ridge revealed high amplitude fluctuations in ostracode abundance and diversity coincident with orbital and suborbital scale climate oscillations measured by several paleoceanographic proxy records. During the past 210,000 yr, ostracode biodiversity as measured by species number ( S ) and the Shannon–Weaver index, H ( S ), oscillated from H ( S )=0.4 during glacial periods (marine isotope stages 6, 5d, 5b, 4, and 2) to H ( S )=1.1 during interglacial and interstadial periods (stages 7, 5e, 5c, 5a, 3 and 1). A total of 23 diversity peaks could be recognized. Eleven of these signify major periods of high diversity [ H ( S )>0.8, S = 10–21] occurring every 15–20 ka. Twelve were minor peaks which may represent millennial-scale diversity oscillations. The composition of ostracode assemblages varies with Krithe -dominated assemblages characterizing glacial intervals, and Argilloecia–Cytheropteron characterizing deglacials, and trachyleberid genera ( Poseidonamicus , Echinocythereis , Henryhowella , Oxycythereis ) abundant during interglacials. Diversity and faunal composition changes can be matched to independent deep-sea paleoceanographic tracers such as benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopes, Krithe trace elements (Mg/Ca ratios), and to North Atlantic region climate records such as Greenland ice cores. When interpreted in light of ostracode species' ecology, these faunal and diversity patterns provide evidence that deep-sea benthic ecosystems experience significant reorganization in response to climate changes over orbital to millennial timescales.

Marine Micropaleontology↗
USGS2017

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2001

Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving significant changes in global climate. To project potential vegetation response to future climate change, this study uses response surfaces to describe the relationship between bioclimatic variables and the distribution of tree and shrub taxa in western North America. The response surfaces illustrate the probability of the occurrence of a taxon at particular points in climate space. Climate space was defined using three bioclimatic variables: mean temperature of the coldest month, growing degree days, and a moisture index. Species distributions were simulated under present climate using observed data (1951–80, 30-year mean) and under future climate (2090–99, 10-year mean) using scenarios generated by three general circulation models—HADCM2, CGCM1, and CSIRO. The scenarios assume a 1% per year compound increase in greenhouse gases and changes in sulfate (SO 4 ) aerosols based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario. The results indicate that under future climate conditions, potential range changes could be large for many tree and shrub taxa. Shifts in the potential ranges of species are simulated to occur not only northward but in all directions, including southward of the existing ranges of certain species. The simulated potential distributions of some species become increasingly fragmented under the future climate scenarios, while the simulated potential distributions of other species expand. The magnitudes of the simulated range changes imply significant impacts to ecosystems and shifts in patterns of species diversity in western North America.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2018

Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

Climate change is rapidly altering the global water cycle, exposing vulnerabilities in both social and environmental systems. However, uncertainty in future climate predictions makes it difficult to design and evaluate strategies for building climate resilience. In regions such as California, characterized by stressed water-supply systems, high natural climate variability, and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation projections, alternative approaches to assessing climate risks may be useful. Here, we develop a hydrologic sensitivity approach to estimate regional streamflow responses to climate change in California. We use statistical models to predict monthly streamflow from physical catchment features and evaluate how flow changes with incremental changes in precipitation and temperature. The results indicate unique regional and monthly flow responses to climate change, with early summer flows (May - July) in interior mountain region having the greatest sensitivity to temperature and winter flow (December - March) in the xeric region having the greatest sensitivity to precipitation. When evaluated over the range of global climate model projections for mid-century (2040-2069), models generally suggest shifts in streamflow regimes towards higher wet season flows and lower dry season flows relative to historical conditions. The sensitivity analysis provides insight into catchment- and regional-scale hydrologic responses in California and complements other approaches for understanding the consequences of climatic change for water and risk management.

California↗
USGS2022

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

PNAS↗
USGS2017

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Integrated modeling reveals shifts in waterfowl population dynamics under climate change

1. Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife populations. The development of appropriate conservation strategies relies on reliable predictions of population responses to climate change, which require in-depth understanding of the complex relationships between climate and population dynamics through density dependent demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) are a type of modeling approach that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data, providing opportunities to understand and predict population demography and dynamics under climate change. 2. In this study we developed dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population estimates, which became an important component of the IPM we used in data analysis. We then analyzed four decades (1974-2014) of Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. Our goals were to examine the complex relationships among climate, density dependent processes, waterfowl population demography and dynamics, identify the key demographic parameters that are sensitive to climate change and are influential to population growth, and forecast population responses to climate change. 3. Our results revealed the interactive effects of temperature and density dependent processes on Mallard recruitment and to a less extent apparent survival. We also found that recruitment explained more variance of population growth than apparent survival. We then forecasted a decrease in Mallard breeding population density in the Northern Prairie Potholes and an increase in Mallard breeding population density in the northern part of our study area, indicating potential shifts in Mallard population dynamics under future climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications Different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations under climate change. Strategies that facilitate recruitment are essential for high-density populations that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. By contrast, low-density populations are relatively resilient to climate change and their habitats may serve as future climate refugia. Adaptive management is essential for evaluating management consequences. Our modelling framework approach can be easily adapted for other species and thus has wide applications in ecology and conservation.

Ecography↗
USGS2026

BioShifts v2 and BioShiftR: Tools for navigating and analysing species range shift data

Species are redistributing their ranges globally in response to climate change, but the fragmented and complex nature of the documented responses make them challenging to track and analyze. Synthesis of species’ range shifts requires careful integration and consideration of varying methods and scales of study. Here, we present an updated database that combines two previous data repositories (BioShifts v1 and CoRE), complete with methodological information from original studies, spatial datasets of species and study locations, and associated climate exposure metrics calculated at multiple scales, together comprising a clean and interoperable relational database for future studies of range shifts. We make these data accessible through a companion open-source software tool, BioShiftR, that simplifies the navigation and analysis of estimated range shift rates in light of varying methods and hypothesized climate drivers. Together, these tools will facilitate tractable and robust downstream studies of range shifts, ultimately improving our understanding of species’ biogeographical responses to climate change.

EcoEvoRxiv↗
USGS2021

Hibernation behavior of a federally-threatened ground squirrel: Climate change and habitat selection implications

Hibernation is an adaptation to survive periods of stress, from food limitation or harsh thermal conditions. A key question in contemporary ecology is whether rare, range-restricted species can change their behavior in response to climate change (i.e., through behavioral plasticity). The northern Idaho ground squirrel, Urocitellus brunneus (A. H. Howell, 1928), is a federally threatened species that hibernates for approximately 8 months per year within the bounds of its small range in central Idaho, USA. Changes in temperature, snow accumulation, and summer precipitation, all brought about as a result of climate change, may reduce survival or fecundity of northern Idaho ground squirrels if they cannot adapt to these climate changes. Hibernating species can respond to climate-change-induced thermal challenges in two ways: change their hibernation physiology and behavior (i.e., emergence date or number of torpor bouts) or alter their environment (i.e., change hibernacula depth or location). We explored a suite of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to document the extent to which they influenced hibernation behavior of northern Idaho ground squirrels. Emergence date was positively associated with snowpack and negatively associated with mean winter temperature. Mean minimum skin temperature was negatively associated with canopy closure and slope of a squirrel’s hibernaculum. Duration of the heterothermal period, number of euthermic bouts, and total time spent euthermic were positively associated with body mass. Immergence date and duration of the longest torpor bout were negatively associated with body mass. Warmer temperatures and less snow accumulation in the winter—caused by climate change—likely will cause altered emergence dates. Our results suggest that any future climate-induced changes in snowfall, ambient temperature, food availability, or habitat likely will impact survival of this rare ground squirrel, because such changes will cause changes in hibernation behavior, percent mass loss during hibernation, and duration of the active season when small mammals are more susceptible to predation.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Limited directional change in mountaintop plant communities over 19 years in western North America

Plant communities on mountain summits are commonly long-lived, cold-adapted perennials with low dispersal ability. These characteristics in tandem with limited area to track suitable conditions make these mountain communities potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, and indicators of climate change impacts. We investigated temporal changes in plant communities on 29 arid mountain summits across eight study regions in California and Nevada, USA, over 19 years. We analyzed community dynamics in terms of species richness, turnover, gain and loss of functional groups, and relative abundance of functional groups. First, across all summits and regions, we found no change in species richness over time. Second, there was relatively high species turnover (21.7%) between the five-year survey intervals, but turnover was not significantly different from random expectation. Within functional groups, forbs had the greatest proportion of gains and cushions had the greatest proportion of losses. Third, qualitative abundance categories presented a small but consistent signal of decrease in the relative abundance of cushions, graminoids, and shrubs/trees over the study period. Across a broad geographic scale and nearly two decades, community patterns were widely similar, suggesting that climate change has not impacted local colonization or extirpation of mountaintop species in this arid region. These findings support observed differences in response to climate change between temperature-limited and water-limited regions globally, and highlight the lagged and variable nature of high-elevation systems. Our findings fill a major data gap on alpine plant community responses to climate change in the western United States and bolster the importance of long-term ecological monitoring with rapid climate change.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2023

The energy–water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's ( Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12–9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E–W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2014

Climatic variation and tortoise survival: has a desert species met its match?

While demographic changes in short-lived species may be observed relatively quickly in response to climate changes, measuring population responses of long-lived species requires long-term studies that are not always available. We analyzed data from a population of threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) at a 2.59 km 2 study plot in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of Joshua Tree National Park, California, USA from 1978 to 2012 to examine variation in apparent survival and demography in this long-lived species. Transect-based, mark-recapture surveys were conducted in 10 of those years to locate living and dead tortoises. Previous modeling suggested that this area would become unsuitable as tortoise habitat under a warming and drying climate scenario. Estimated adult population size declined greatly from 1996 to 2012. The population appeared to have high apparent survival from 1978 to 1996 but apparent survival decreased from 1997 to 2002, concurrent with persistent drought. The best model relating apparent survivorship of tortoises ≥18 cm over time was based on a three year moving average of estimated winter precipitation. The postures and positions of a majority of dead tortoises found in 2012 were consistent with death by dehydration and starvation. Some live and many dead tortoises found in 2012 showed signs of predation or scavenging by mammalian carnivores. Coyote (Canis latrans) scats and other evidence from the site confirmed their role as tortoise predators and scavengers. Predation rates may be exacerbated by drought if carnivores switch from preferred mammalian prey to tortoises during dry years. Climate modeling suggests that the region will be subjected to even longer duration droughts in the future and that the plot may become unsuitable for continued tortoise survival. Our results showing wide fluctuations in apparent survival and decreasing tortoise density over time may be early signals of that possible outcome.

California↗
USGS2014

Resource manager information needs regarding hydrologic regime shifts for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources in North America. LCCs were established by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of the fact that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes, and resource management challenges extend beyond most of the boundaries considered in current natural resource management. The North Pacific LCC (NPLCC) covers the range of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest, including an area of 528,360 km 2 spanning 22 degrees of latitude from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, to Bodega Bay, California. The coverage area includes parts of four States, two Canadian provinces, and more than 100 Tribes and First Nation language groups. It extends from alpine areas at the crest of coastal mountains across subalpine, montane, and lowland forests to the nearshore marine environment. This wide range of latitudes and elevation zones; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats; and complex jurisdictional boundaries hosts a diversity of natural resources and their corresponding management issues are equally diverse. As evidenced by the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (S-TEK) Strategy guiding principles, identifying and responding to the needs of resource managers is key to the success of the NPLCC. To help achieve this goal of the NPLCC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has organized several workshops with resource managers and resource scientists to identify management information needs relevant to the priority topics identified in the S-TEK Strategy. Here, we detail the results from a first workshop to address the effects of changes in hydrologic regime on rivers, streams, and riparian corridors. The workshop focused on a subset of the full NPLCC geography and was structured to answer the following questions: What are the valued resources and services that may be affected by hydrologic regime changes in the region? What are the management goals for those resources? How is climate change anticipated to affect valued resources and goals? What adaptation strategies may managers use in response to anticipated changes in resources due to climate-related hydrologic change? What information is needed to inform and use management responses?

Open-File Report↗
USGS2025

Exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity? Reviewing assessments that use only two of three elements of climate change vulnerability

As climate change accelerates, understanding which species are most vulnerable and why they are vulnerable will be vital to inform conservation action. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are tools to assess species' responses to climate change, detect drivers of vulnerability, and inform conservation planning. CCVAs are commonly composed of three elements: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Incorporating all three elements can be challenging, and including only two of the three elements may be a more feasible approach in many systems. Although two-element CCVA approaches have become more common, their utility and procedures remain poorly documented. We conducted a literature review to explore the scope, methods, and rationale of CCVAs that use a two-element approach to assess vertebrate vulnerability. Despite the potential to expand CCVAs into understudied systems, two-element assessments had similar geographic and taxonomic biases as those previously detected in CCVAs in general. Methods varied, yet we found that variables used in two-element studies could be condensed into standardized categories to enhance comparability. Finally, limitations in data availability and computational resources were common rationales for using a two-element approach. By clarifying the purposes, opportunities, and limitations of two-element assessment, this review can aid in selecting appropriate methods for CCVAs.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2008

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management. We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

The USA National Phenology Network; taking the pulse of our planet

People have tracked phenology for centuries and for the most practical reasons: it helped them know when to hunt and fish, when to plant and harvest crops, and when to navigate waterways. Now phenology is being used as a tool to assess climate change and its effects on both natural and modified ecosystems. How is the timing of events in plant and animal life cycles, like flowering or migration, responding to climate change? And how are those responses, in turn, affecting people and ecosystems? The USA National Phenology Network (the Network) is working to answer these questions for science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and their relationship to environmental change. The Network is a consortium of organizations and individuals that collect, share, and use phenology data, models, and related information to enable scientists, resource managers, and the public to adapt in response to changing climates and environments. In addition, the Network encourages people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology as a way to discover and explore the nature and pace of our dynamic world. The National Coordinating Office (NCO) of the Network is a resource center that facilitates and encourages widespread collection, integration, and sharing of phenology data and related information (for example, meteorological and hydrological data). The NCO develops and promotes standardized methods for field data collection and maintains several online user interfaces for data upload and download, as well as data exploration, visualization, and analysis. The NCO also facilitates basic and applied research related to phenology, the development of decision-support tools for resource managers and planners, and the design of educational and outreach materials

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2025

Most pinyon-juniper woodland species distributions are projected to shrink rather than shift under climate change

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are among the most widespread ecosystems in rangelands of western North America, supporting diverse wildlife habitat, recreation, grazing, and cultural/spiritual enrichment. Anticipating future distribution shifts under changing climate will be critical to climate adaptation and conservation efforts in these ecosystems. Here, we evaluate drivers of PJ tree species’ distributions and project changes in response to future climate change. We developed species distribution models with dryland-focused predictors to project environmental suitability changes across the entirety of three pinyon and six juniper species ranges. We identify areas of robust suitability change by combining suitability projections from multiple emissions scenarios and time periods. PJ species’ suitabilities respond to many temperature and moisture covariates expected to change in the future. Projected responses among PJ species are highly variable, ranging from modest declines with concurrent gains for overall little net change to wide-ranging declines with no gains for overall range contractions. Environmental suitability is projected to decline broadly across the arid United States Southwest and remain relatively stable across the northern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau. Our results suggest unique responses of PJ species to future climate change. We found that species were projected to experience more losses than gains in suitability, for overall range shrinks rather than shifts. Land managers have the capacity to increase woodland resilience to drought, and our results can inform rangeland-wide management planning and conservation efforts in PJ woodlands.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗